ENERGY VISIONUPDATE 2008Solving the EnergyPuzzle throughInnovation
World Economic Forum
in partnership withCambridge Energy Research Associates
About the World Economic Forum
The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the worldby engaging leaders in partnerships to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Incorporated as a foundation in1971, and based in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic Forum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tied to nopolitical, partisan or national interests. (www.weforum.org)
About CERA
Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. (CERA), an IHS company, is a leading advisor to energy companies,governments, financial institutions, technology providers, and consumers. CERA delivers critical knowledge andindependent objective analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends and strategy. (www.cera.com)CERA’s expertise covers all major energy sectors – oil and refined products, natural gas, coal, and electric power – on aglobal and regional basis. CERA’s team of experts is headed by Daniel Yergin, Chairman, author of
The Prize:The EpicQuest for Oil, Money and Power
for which he won the Pulitzer Prize
,
and author of
The CommandingHeights: The Battlefor the World Economy
. IHS is the leading source for the critical information and data on which the upstream oil and gasindustry operates worldwide. (www.ihs.com)
About the World Economic Forum Energy Industry Partnership
The Energy Industry Partnership (IP) programme of the World Economic Forum provides the CEOs and senior executivesof the world’s leading companies as well as select energy ministers with the opportunity to engage with their peers todefine and address critical industry issues throughout the year. Identifying, developing and acting upon these specificindustry issues is fundamental to the Forum’s commitment to deliver sustainable social development founded uponeconomic progress.
As of 1 March 2008, the Energy Industry Partner companies include
: ABB, BC Hydro, BP, Centrica, CERA, Chevron Corporation, Duke Energy, EDF, EGL, EnBW, Enel, E.ON, Eskom,ExxonMobil, Fluor Corporation, Fortum, Gaz de France, Iberdrola, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Lukoil Joint Stock OilCompany, Mubadala Development Company, Pemex, Petrobras, Petronas, Reliance Industries, RAO UESR, Renova,RWE, Sasol, Saudi Aramco, Royal Dutch Shell, SK Corporation, StatoilHydro, Suez, Tokyo Electric Power Company, Total, Vattenfall, Vestas Wind Systems, Xenel Group.
For information on the Energy Industry Partnership
, please contact Christoph W. Frei, Senior Director, EnergyIndustries (E-mail: christoph.frei@weforum.org; Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1313)
About the Advisory Board
The Advisory Board helps drive the Energy Industry Partnership towards analysis, insights and conclusions that fulfil theForum’s mission. It helps ensure the quality of Industry Partnership meetings, reports and projects. The Advisory Boardcurrently consists of the following select experts:
Fatih Birol
, Chief Economist and Head, Economic Analysis Division, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris
Gerald Doucet
, Secretary-General, World Energy Council (WEC), United Kingdom
Kenneth Rogoff
, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics, Harvard University, USA
Daniel Yergin
, Chairman, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), USA The Advisory Board has contributed to this report by reviewing and commenting on a draft version. The Advisory Boardalso provided input to the Energy Issues Survey 2008. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the World Economic Forum.
World Economic Forum
91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744E-mail: contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org©2008 World Economic Forum All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.
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ENERGY VISION UPDATE 2008
Contents
Executive Summary..........................................2Energy Issues Survey 2008 ..............................4Chapter 1: The Energy Dilemma ......................7Perspectives
•
Message from the Energy Community Leader2008: Catalysts for Innovation,
James E. Rogers,Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer,Duke Energy Corporation, USA ..........................19•
The Biggest Surprises – Past and Future,
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Head,Economic Analysis Division, InternationalEnergy Agency, Paris ..........................................20•
Roles of Energy Incumbents and MarketTransformers,
Susan Hockfield, President,Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA;Member of the Foundation Board, WorldEconomic Forum ................................................21•
Harry Potter and Peak Oil,
Chris Luebkeman,Director, Global Foresight and Innovation, ArupGroup, United Kingdom......................................22•
Energy Innovation: A Matter of Evolution – NotRevolution,
Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive,Royal Dutch Shell, Netherlands ..........................23
Chapter 2: The Innovation Frontier ................24Perspectives
•
Innovation at the Speed of Life,
Matt Bross, Group Chief Technology Officer,BT, United Kingdom ...........................................31•
The Need for New Value Networks,
Clayton Christensen, Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration, USA ............................32•
The Dynamics of Green-tech Investment,
R. Andrew de Pass, Managing Director andHead of Sustainable Development Investment,Citi Alternative Investments, USA ........................33•
“The Great Bubbling” in Energy Technology,
Daniel Yergin, Chairman, Cambridge EnergyResearch Associates (CERA), USA .....................34
Chapter 3: Innovation and Energy: Lessonsfrom Other Industries .....................................35Perspectives
•
Responding to Transformational Change,
Donald Paul, Vice-President and Chief Technology Officer (retired), ChevronCorporation, USA ...............................................41•
Innovation in the Automotive Industry,
MichaelWarren, National Manager, Americas StrategicResearch & Planning Group, Toyota Motor North America, USA .....................................................42
Chapter 4: Creating a New Energy Future ....43Perspectives
•
The Role of Consumers in Energy IndustryInnovation,
Tim Brown, President, Chief Executive Officer and Partner, IDEO, USA ...........51•
The Consumerization of Energy Changes theBalance of Power – IT’s Role in ManagingDomestic Power Consumption,
KristianSteenstrup, Distinguished Analyst, Energyand Utilities Industry Advisory Service,Gartner, USA ......................................................52
List of Key Contributors .................................53
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