-3-
Annus horribilis
It has now been exactly a year since our performance has taken a nosedive
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we
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re down 23.1%.We feel terrible about it and obviously wish we
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d done some things differently, but we are not atall discouraged or worried, as we
’
ve been through this before: if you look at our performancetable at the end of this letter, you will see that we
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ve lost more money, much faster, on two otheroccasions: we were down 27.4% in eight months from June 2002
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January 2003 in our sisterfund, the T2 Accredited Fund (the T2 Qualified Fund launched in July 2004), and down 35.0%in five months from October 2008
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February 2009. In both of these cases, by playing a stronghand and buying more of our favorite stocks as they plunged, we made back all of the losses (andthen some) remarkably quickly: in only nine months in 2002-03 and ten months in 2008-09. Wecould not be more confident that we will rebound strongly from these latest losses as well.An obvious difference, of course, is that in the previous two declines, the market was tumblingas well, whereas over the past year, the market is up 18.5%. Thus, while our absolute declineisn
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t as large, our relative performance is far worse. This is due to three factors, which we
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vediscussed in previous letters: first, we made a few mistakes, such as being short Netflix; second,in a far greater number of stocks, we invested too early (though we are confident that we
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ll beproven right); and finally, our macro calls have been completely wrong.Regarding the latter, it
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s been very frustrating to accurately predict the primary causes of thecurrent market turmoil
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the weak U.S. economy characterized by persistently highunemployment and a feeble housing market, plus the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
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but tohave done so a year too early (lest you think we are engaging in revisionist history, we
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veattached excerpts from our July 2010 and 2010 annual letter in an endnote at the end of thisletter
i
). As a result, we were positioned too defensively in late 2010 and our short book hurt ourreturns so much and grew so large that we were forced to trim it back and forswore makingmajor market calls in the absence of high conviction of a major bubble. Thus, we werepositioned normally
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substantially net long
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when the recent market storm hit.
So what are the lessons we
’
ve taken from our experience over the past year? That we
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re muchbetter bottoms-up stock and industry analysts than we are macro prognosticators. Making (andacting on) a bearish macro call a year ago was a mistake that we learned from and correctedearlier this year. In contrast, we do not think we made a mistake by failing to predict the latestmarket turmoil. Other than in rare circumstances, it
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s just not what we do because we don
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tthink we
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re good at it.Perhaps a good analogy is that we think we can identify major hurricanes before they hit
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likethe housing bubble bursting
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but are unlikely to see sudden tornadoes such as what occurred inthe past month (some believe that, rather than being a sudden tornado, the turmoil of the pastmonth is the front edge of another major hurricane, but we don
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t think that
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s likely; rather, a
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muddle-through
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scenario
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discussed in the endnote
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is most probable).
Guaranteed Underperformance
Stocks are volatile and since we invest in a concentrated fashion, often in unpopular sectors, arewilling to
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catch falling knives
‖
if they
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re cheap enough, and never engage in closet indexing,we
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ve always known from the day we started this business nearly 13 years ago that our portfoliowould occasionally suffer losses and/or trail the market, perhaps to a significant degree. In other
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