Professional Documents
Culture Documents
P. 2
The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
1. Why Access Matters 2. Barriers to Post-Secondary Education 3. Student Finance in Canada 4. Governments 5. Student Debt
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The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
P. 4
Youth Population Medium Growth Projection
2006 Population 18- to 24-Year-Old Population
3.199 million
285,000 fewer 18- to 24-yearolds between 2011 and 2021 3.106 million
2.914 million
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 052-0004 and Catalogue no. 91-520-X. Last modified: 2005-12-21.
P. 5
Youth Share of the Population and Dependency Ratio Projections
16% 14% 12% 0.44 10% 0.4 8% 14% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 13% 0.3 12% 11% 11% 11% 0.2 0.1 0 0.44 0.51 0.47 0.5 15- to 24-year-old share of the population Dependency Ratio 0.61 0.57 0.6 0.7
Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories (December 2005).
P. 6
Aboriginal Share (projected) of the 15- to 24-Year-Old Population in 2006 and 2017
CANADA Territories BC AB SK MB ON QC Atlantic % 2.3% 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 3.7% 4.5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 6.1% 5.9% 7.5% 8.8% 21.2% 31.0% 19.4% 23.9% 2006 2017 4.9% 5.6% 62.8% 70.4%
Statistics Canada (2005), Projections of the Aboriginal populations, Canada, provinces and territories
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Educational Requirements of Todays Jobs
College 29%
College 31%
66%
University 26% University 22%
65%
Management 11%
Management 12%
Bergeron, Louis-Philippe, et al. (2004), Looking Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market, 2004-2013.
P. 8
Post-Secondary Participation Two Years After Graduating High School
Continuing or completed PSE Dropped out of high school, never pursued PSE or dropped out of PSE
83% 72% 60% 52% 39% 28% 17% 31% 48% 40% 70% 61%
General population
Parents - No PSE
Aboriginal
Non-Aboriginal
Malatest (2006), Class of 2003; and Shaienks, Eisl-Culkin and Bussire (2006), Follow-up on Education and Labour Market Pathways of Young Canadians Aged 18 to 20 Results from YITS Cycle 3
P. 9
Participation in Post-Secondary Education Among 18- to 24-year-olds Living with at Least One Parent in 2001 by Family Income and Parental Education
81% 68% 60% 49% 63% 53%
76%
77%
$25,000 $50,000
$50,000 $75,000
$75,001 $100,000
Some postsecondary
University
Drolet (2005), Participation in Post-secondary Education in Canada: Has the Role of Parental Income and Education Changed over the 1990s?
P. 10
Projected Post-Secondary Enrolment in Canada by Demographic Scenario, 2005 to 2021
Optimistic demographic scenario Pessimistic demographic scenario 2005 enrolment
2013
2017
2021
JDMD Groupe conseils (2006), Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis and Projections.
P. 11
Participation Rate of Youth in the Bottom Four Income Quintiles Necessary to Maintain 2005 Enrolment Levels by Demographic Scenario, 2006 to 2021
56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 2006 2011 2016 2021 Optimistic Scenario Pessimistic Scenario
JDMD Groupe conseils (2006), Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis and Projections.
P. 12
The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
P. 13
Barriers to Access and Persistence
Never attended
31% 29% 27% 22% 19% 14% 33%
Discontinued
13% 9% 8%
12%
11%
10%
Finances
Career indecision
Lack of interest
Employment
Academic challenges
Personal/family
P. 14
Financial Barriers
Among those who cited financial barriers to access (33%) or persistence (22%)
Never attended Discontinued 24% 21% 18% 16% 12% 18% 15% 11% 11% 7%
25%
6%
P. 15
Financial Barriers: The Pull of the Labour Market
15- to 19-year-old average employment rate Percentage who worked immediately following high school 53% 49% 43% 34% 26% 25% 20%
54%
Alberta
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
New Brunswick
P. 16
Academic Barriers: Literacy Scores at Age 15 and Post-Secondary Education
Graduated high school by age 19 89% 77% 62% 45% 28% 62% 76% Enrolled in post-secondary by age 19 98% 95% 88%
Lowest level
Level 2
Level 4
Highest level
Knighton, and Bussire (2006) Educational Outcomes at Age 19 Associated with Reading Ability at Age 15.
P. 18
Informational/Motivational Barriers: Expectations and Reality
High school seniors expect 84% 76% 74% 69% 83% 86% 73% First-year full-time dependent university students receive Full-time dependent college students receive 59% 48% 43% 35% 31%
16%
0.4% Income from work Parental support Scholarships Government aid Co-op income
Prairie Research Associates (2005), Secondary School Student Survey, 2003-04 Pan-Canadian Student Financial Survey
P. 19
Informational/Motivational Barriers: Family Discussions About PSE
Parents reported
Talking to their kids about PSE 84%
38%
13%
Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation (2006), Closing the Access Gap: Does Information Matter?
P. 20
Low-Income Families: Planning
Proportion of Ontario university applicants discussing finances with their parents before grade 10
43% 38% 32% 23% 19%
$30,000$50,000
$90,000$120,000
P. 22
First Generation: Planning
High school students who plan to work after high school and study later
No PSE Both Parents College Both Parents University 33%
26% 22% 17% 16% 17% 15% 10% 11% 8% 9% 8% 11% 10% 10% 8% 18% 15% 13% 23% 18%
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
Grade 10
Grade 11
Grade 12
P. 23
First Generation: Attitudes High school seniors attitudes about PSE by parental education
No PSE 76% 64% 48% 80% 65% 69% 61% 71% College/apprenticeship University (both parents) 76%
Paying for post-secondary is a There are other benefits to postgood investment secondary besides a good job
P. 24
Aboriginal Youth: Academics On-reserve Aboriginal population with less than high school education, aged 20 to 24 in 2001
71% 58% 44% 40% 27% 60% 55% 46% 61% 61%
CANADA
NL
NS
NB
QC
ON
MB
SK
AB
BC
P. 25
Aboriginal Youth: Barriers On-reserve Aboriginal youths reasons for not pursuing postsecondary
59%
Dislike school
Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation (2005), Changing Course: Improving Aboriginal Access to PostSecondary Education in Canada
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Interacting Barriers Senior high school students were asked whether various factors posed a barrier to them continuing their studies after high school. Of those who said that 68% said they faced a 66% said they faced poor school marks financial barrier a barrier related to were a barrier: their lack of interest in further studies or career direction Of those who said that 67% said they faced a 45% said they faced their lack of interest or financial barrier an academic barrier career direction posed a barrier: Of those who said they 54% said that they faced a financial faced a barrier related barrier: to lack of interest or career direction 38% said they faced a barrier related to poor school marks
P. 27
The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
P. 28
Distribution of Student Expenditures by Type of Post-Secondary Education
College students
33% 29% 27%
University students
Transportation
Books/computer
Debt payment
Other
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Financial Resources
P. 30
Making Ends Meet Full-Time Students
$4,000
Total Income and Expenditure and Balance over the Year (Before Borrowing)
Income before borrowing
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
-$2,000
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Making Ends Meet Full-time Students
$5,000
Total Income and Expenditure and Balance over the Year (After Borrowing) Income after borrowing Expenses Balance after borrowing
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Baseline September October November December January February March
-$1,000
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Parental Contribution by Family Income
$4,500 $4,000 78% $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 $30,000 or less $30,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $73,000 $73,000 - $100,000More than $100,000 $1,837 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 64% 72% $2,856
Average amount
$2,169
$2,169
50%
P. 33
Assessed Need Levels of Millennium Bursary and Millennium Access Bursary and Grant Recipients by Institution Type in 2005-06
Millennium Bursary Access Bursary
$14,968
$11,284 $9,048
$11,506
$11,555
$11,595
$8,558 $7,327
University Students
College Students
All Students
P. 34
The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
P. 35
Probability of Degree Completion in Relation to Annualized Aid
100% Proportion who completed a degree 90% 80% 70% 59% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Under $1,000 $1,000- $1,999 $2,000- $2,999 $3,000- $9,999 Annualized financial aid
Lori McElroy (2005), Student Aid and University Persistence: Does Debt Matter?
Grant + Loan Loan Only
79%
78%
75% 62%
48%
8%
$10,000+
P. 36
Dollar Value of Federal Education-Related Tax Expenditures, 1994- 2007
$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Scholarship/bursary exemption RESPs Student loan interest credit Credits carried forward Transferred credits Education credit Tuition credit
P. 37
Total Need-Based Financial Aid in Saskatchewan, 1993-94 to 2003-04 (in millions of 2005 dollars)
Loans Grants and Remission
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
P. 38
Total Universal Financial Aid in Saskatchewan, 1993-94 to 2003-04 (in millions of 2005 dollars)
$120
CESGs
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
P. 39
Proportion of Repayable and Non-Repayable Need-Based Financial Aid in Canada, 1993-94 to 2003-04 (in millions of 2005 dollars)
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% %
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
Net Loans
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Distribution of Total Need-Based and Universal Student Aid in Canada by Type, 1993-94 to 2003-04
Net loans 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% %
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
Loan remission
Grants
Tax credits
CESGs
Merit/other
P. 41
Total Universal Student Aid in Canada by Source, 1993-94 to 2003-04 (in millions of 2005 dollars)
$3,000 Federal Governments $2,500 Provincial Governments
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
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Total Expenditures on Need-Based and Universal Student Aid by Type, 1993-94 to 2003-04 (in millions of 2005 dollars)
$3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 1990- 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 200391 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Need-Based Universal
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Provincial Grants and Remission
All Provinces $1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
$0 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999- 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2000
P. 44
Provincial Grants and Remission
$1,200,000,000 Ontario Rest of Canada
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
P. 45
Provincial Grants and Remission
$1,200,000,000 Rest of Canada $1,000,000,000 Ontario
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$200,000,000
$0 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 19992000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
P. 47
Provincial Student Aid Recipients in Canada, 1994-95 to 2003-04
600000
522,723 415,239
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 19992000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
P. 48
The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
P. 49
University Graduate Debt in Canada in 2006 Dollars, 1990-2006
Amount in current year dollars $30,000 56% $25,000 45% $20,000 $15,809 $15,000 $11,636 $10,000 $8,337 $12,671 45% $20,286 $23,329 $21,437 $20,074 $24,047 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% 1990 1995 2000 2003 2006 Amount in 2006 dollars 59% Incidence 59% 65%
$5,000
$0
P. 50
More on University Student Debt
1. The amount of average debt has stabilized in recent years, but student aid policy changes are likely to lead to increases in the coming years. 2. Theres a need for additional borrowing not met by government. Thirty-nine per cent of all funds borrowed in 2006 came from financial institutions and family, up from 31 per cent three years earlier. 3. University graduates who plan on pursuing more education had less debt (about $3,200) than those who did not. 4. No apparent relationship between amount of debt and anticipated post-study income.
P. 52
Change in Accumulated Debt Among College Students with Debt outside Quebec, 2003-06
< $5,000 40% 34% 30% 35% 31% 32% 29% 25% 20% 17% 15% 10% 18% 26% 29% $5,000 - $10,000 $10,001 - $15,000 > $15,000
15%
14%
15%
P. 53
More on College Student Debt
1. In 2006 47 per cent of college students who had no debt planned to pursue further post-secondary studies, compared to fewer than 40 per cent of those with debt and 21 per cent of students with more than $30,000 of debt. 2. College debt catching up to university debt?
P. 54
Managing Debt: Approaches 1. The eight per cent rule: student loan payments should not exceed eight per cent of a graduates pre-tax earnings. (The banks perspective.) 2. Other approaches one size fits all fits none. 3. Two principles and a conclusion (Schwartz and Baum): 1. Graduates with very low incomes cannot reasonably be expected to meet their repayment obligations. 2. The more a graduate earns, the larger the share of his or her income should be devoted to debt repayment. 3. Those earning lower (but not the very lowest) incomes should be expected to devote between five and ten per cent of pre-tax discretionary income to student loan repayment, with the payment-to-income ratio being capped at 18 to 20 per cent for those earning much higher incomes.
P. 55
Conclusion 1. Post-secondary education and Canadas needs 2. Overcoming barriers to PSE 3. Targeting public funds effectively 4. Post-secondary outcomes
P. 56
The Price of Knowledge 2006-07
Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation
Joseph Berger jberger@bm-ms.org 1-877-786-3999 www.millenniumscholarships.ca