Co-op report - Gareth Thomas

The Politics ofAnxiety

How commuterland holds

the key to Labour’s revival

By Gareth Thomas

Polling analysis by Peter Kellner,YouGov

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Introduction

Gareth Thomas MP

This pamphlet grew out of conversations between the authors after the defeat in the 2010election; about the challenges facing the Labour Party and about where the likely political battleground will be in 2015. Unde

r Ed Miliband Labour’s new generation of modernisers

are faced with the legacies - good and bad - of the Blair and Brown era and with fewcentre-left Governments in Europe to look to for advice, it is perhaps tempting to turn tothe Obama Administration for inspiration.Instead English Labour needs to look closer to home and remind itself of the lessons itlearnt in the tough years of Opposition to Margaret Thatcher and John Major. We can be bolder, but understanding the fears, as well as the hopes and dreams of the electorate is

key. At this point on Labour’s journey the electorate appear wary of being wooed. Less

than 18 months after one of our worst ever defeats this should come as no surprise, butnow is the time to step up our efforts and prioritise our understanding of what theelectorate across the country, but particularly in the key battlegrounds, are thinking.

“Education, education, education” may have been the public message of New Labour'smost confident period, but privately, in the mid 1990’s,

the recognition of the importanceof the South to Labour's electoral prospects and the need to tackle the 'southerndiscomfort' with Labour's past, drove the ruthless focus to shift Labour back to the centreground. Ed Miliband has quite rightly recognised that recovering in the South is vital for afuture Labour victory too.

In the mid 1990’s the narrative that we developed then not only helped Labour to win

marginal seats in the South but crucially also made Labour better placed to win marginalseats with similar characteristics right across the country.The pamphlet argues that Labour needs to concentrate more of its resources and focus on

London’s

commuter belt; outer London and those parts of the Home Counties in reach ofCentral London. Whilst there are many marginal seats around the country, it is in

London’s commuter

belt that Labour needs to win more marginal seats if it is to return topower and where the battle for the hearts and minds of electors will be particularly tough.The narrative that will help Labour win back the seats we lost in the commuter belt will besimilar to the messages that will help us win back marginal seats in other parts of the

country too. If we understand how London’s commuters are thinking, we will be better

placed to hone a message for other marginal seats across the UK, but particularly inEngland.Winning every vote that's possible regardless of location is every politicians ambition butfor Labour to be competitive at a time of constrained resources, building further our

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organisational base in the commuter belt to challenge in council, regional and ultimatelygeneral elections is a no brainer. Analysis from other sources notes too, the marked declinein 2010 in our position in some commuter belt seats which we lost in 2005, some of which

we will certainly need to win back in 2015; which is why Ed Miliband’s decision to

identify candidates for a number of key seats even before new boundary changes have been published is clearly sensible. It will allow candidates to begin to build the profile andorganisational base; the delivery rounds, canvassing teams etc. that are the lifeblood ofany election victory.The electoral strategy for 2015 for the Conservative Party, and to an extent the electoralstrategy of the Liberal Democrats, is already ready pretty clear. Huge cuts in publicspending are being pushed through in the early years of this Government to a backdrop ofover-hyped claims about the size of the deficit and its potential impact. In turn we canexpect tax cuts and a populist bank share sell off to be offered in the last years of theCoalition in an attempt to soften and sweeten the prospect of an outright ConservativeGovernment. Whilst there will be numerous other policy twists and turns to come, with nodoubt the Big Society re-launched yet more times, it is this fundamental economic strategythat Labour will have to combat in order to bounce back.The polling points to areas of concerns about the likely outcome of a Conservative victoryin 2015 which Labour can expand on. The polling and focus group analysis also points tothe areas where Labour has lost the confidence of voters. The numbers who think Labour

used to care for ‘people like me’ are not surprising, but nevertheless represent a powerful

challenge. The individual appetite for lower taxes, for better public services and crimefree neighbourhoods across the country is clear. National priorities too were clear: fastereconomic growth, quality public services and control of immigration levels. What was alsoclear was the lack of appetite for higher taxes, even if the Government could guaranteethat the revenue raised would be used for a particular purpose.Many, but not all, of the concerns of voters in the commuter belt mirror the priorities ofthe country at large. Indeed what leaps out from the polling analysis is the striking level of

concern about what the future holds; the ‘age of anxiety’ across the country and the

powerful sense that those polled and interviewed had that a good job and work life balance was at risk.Ed Miliband has rightly set out to overhaul party policy and his choice of key themes forour Policy Review, notably the squeeze on middle income earners and the fear that the

next generation of voters’ families won’t do as well

as they did, do create the opportunityfor future policy to resonate strongly with voters in the commuter belt and nationally.The polling highlights important nuances between the concerns of commuter belt votersand broader national concerns. Commuter belt voters are collectively slightly less in tunewith traditional left of centre interests, and similarly slightly more confident about thefuture and are more likely to feel that they have enough money to live comfortablycompared to the rest of the country. They are less likely to feel safe about going out and