Demographic Transition Stages

While population rates vary among countries, a similar process of change is operating in each country.This process is known as the Demographic TransitionDemographic TransitionDemographic TransitionDemographic Transition. This transition has fourfourfourfour stages, and barring acatastrophe such as a nuclear war, it is irreversibleirreversibleirreversibleirreversible.Stage 1: Low GrowthMost of humanity’s existence upon Earth can be characterized by Stage 1Stage 1Stage 1Stage 1 of demographic transition.Crude birthCrude birthCrude birthCrude birth and deathdeathdeathdeath rates varied considerably from year to year, and from region to region, but overthe long term, they were roughly comparablecomparablecomparablecomparable, at very highhighhighhigh levels. Between 8000 B.C.8000 B.C.8000 B.C.8000 B.C. and A.D. 1750A.D. 1750A.D. 1750A.D. 1750,Earth’s human population increased from approximately 5 million to 800 million. The burst of population growth around 8000 B.C. was cause by the AgriculturalAgriculturalAgriculturalAgricultural RevolutionRevolutionRevolutionRevolution. Despite theRevolution, the human population remained in Stage 1 of the demographic transition because foodfoodfoodfoodsuppliessuppliessuppliessupplies were still unpredictableunpredictableunpredictableunpredictable.Stage 2: High GrowthFor nearly 10,000 years after the Agricultural Revolution, world population grew at a modestmodestmodestmodest pace.After around A.D. 1750, the world’s population suddenly began to grow 10 times faster10 times faster10 times faster10 times faster than in thepast. In Stage 2Stage 2Stage 2Stage 2, the CDRCDRCDRCDR suddenly plummetsplummetsplummetsplummets, while the CBRCBRCBRCBR remains roughly the samesamesamesame as in Stage 1.Some demographers divide Stage 2 into two parts. During the second partsecond partsecond partsecond part, the growth rategrowth rategrowth rategrowth rate begins toslowslowslowslow, although the gap between births and deaths remains high. Countries entered Stage 2 of thetransition after 1750 as a result of the Industrial RevolutionIndustrial RevolutionIndustrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution. The result of this transformation was anunprecedented level of wealthwealthwealthwealth, some of which was used to make communities healthierhealthierhealthierhealthier places to live.Countries in EuropeEuropeEuropeEurope and North AmericaNorth AmericaNorth AmericaNorth America, entered Stage 2 of the transition about 1800, but Stage 2 didnot diffusediffusediffusediffuse to most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until around 1950.The late 20

century push of countries into stage 2 was caused by the Medical RevolutionMedical RevolutionMedical RevolutionMedical Revolution. Improvedmedical practices suddenly eliminated many of the traditional causes of death in lesser-developedcountries and enabled more people to experience longer and healthier lives.Stage 3: Moderate GrowthA country moves from stage 2 to 3 in the demographic transition when the CBRCBRCBRCBR begins to dropdropdropdropsharplysharplysharplysharply. European and North American countries moved from Stage 2 to 3 in the early half of the 20

century. Most countries in Asia and Latin America have moved to Stage 3 in recent years, while mostof AfricaAfricaAfricaAfrica remains in Stage 2Stage 2Stage 2Stage 2. A society enters Stage 3Stage 3Stage 3Stage 3 when people choose to have fewer childrenfewer childrenfewer childrenfewer children.Medical practices introduced in Stage 2 societies greatly improved the probability of infant survivalinfant survivalinfant survivalinfant survival,but many years elapsed before families reacted by conceiving fewer babies. Economic changesEconomic changesEconomic changesEconomic changes inStage 3 societies also induce people to have fewer offsprfewer offsprfewer offsprfewer offspringinginging. Farmers often consider a large family tobe an asset. In contrast, children living in cities are generally economic assets.Stage 4: Low GrowthA country reaches Stage 4Stage 4Stage 4Stage 4 when the CBRCBRCBRCBR declines to the point where it equalsequalsequalsequals the CDRCDRCDRCDR. Thecondition is called Zero Population GrowthZero Population GrowthZero Population GrowthZero Population Growth (ZPG). Demographers more precisely define ZPG as the