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California Consumer Sentiment Holds Steady

California Consumer Sentiment Holds Steady

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Published by David Duran
Press release from Chapman University's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research (Q3 2011)
Press release from Chapman University's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research (Q3 2011)

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Published by: David Duran on Sep 09, 2011
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11/07/2012

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A.
 
G
ARY
A
NDERSON
C
ENTER FOR
E
CONOMIC
R
ESEARCH
 
For Release:
Friday, September 9, 2011
Contact:
Esmael Adibi,Director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research(714) 997-6693
California Consumer Sentiment Holds Steady
O
RANGE
, CA — The California Composite Index of Consumer Confidence is virtually unchangedat 89.0 in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the second quarter. An index level of 89.0however is below 100 reflecting a higher percentage of pessimistic consumers versus those whoare optimistic. In contrast, the survey of consumer confidence at the national level conducted bythe University of Michigan showed a reading of 55.7 in the month of August tumbling from theMay reading of 74.3.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
82.784.290.588.789.7 89.073.668.971.677.574.355.7405060708090100110May '10 Aug.'10 Nov. '10 Feb. '11 May '11 Aug. '11California NationalCOMPOSITE INDEX
 The California Composite Index is generated based on three indices: consumers’ outlook oncurrent and future economic conditions, and an index measuring consumers’ spending plan.While similar to the national survey, the index measuring current economic conditions showed adecline of nearly 10 points, the other two indices improved over the last three months.
Chapman University
 
Chapman University
California Consumer Sentiment
2
 September 9, 2011
Mainly as a result of the volatile stock market, consumer assessment of the
current
economicconditions deteriorated sharply. This index declined to a reading of 67.9 in August of 2011 from77.7 in May of 2011. Surprisingly, the index measuring
future
economic conditions increasedmoderately to a reading of 108.5 in August from a reading of 104.7 in May of 2011 inching closerto the high of 109.1 in November of 2010.
CALIFORNIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Current v. Future Conditions
66.071.976.980.177.767.9105.1100.1109.1100.1104.7108.50255075100125150May '10 Aug.'10 Nov. '10 Feb. '11 May '11 Aug.'11
Current Condition Future Condition
INDEX
 Moreover, the index measuring consumers’ planned spending on big-ticket items increased sharplyfrom the May reading of 83.4. The current reading of 95.6 is the highest reading for this indexsince the first quarter of 2007. The uptick in the index suggests consumer spending shouldsignificantly improve over the next six months compared to the first half of the year.
CURRENT SPENDING PLAN
74.789.671.477.080.482.983.495.6
405060708090100110
Nov. '09 Feb. '10 May '10 Aug.'10 Nov. '10 Feb. '11 May '11 Aug.'11
COMPOSITE INDEX
 
 
Chapman University
California Consumer Sentiment
3
 September 9, 2011
B
ACKGROUND AND
M
ETHODOLOGY
:
Beginning in the third quarter of 2002, the Anderson Center for Economic Research at ChapmanUniversity launched a survey to measure California consumer sentiment. This survey is similar tothe monthly national survey of consumer sentiment conducted by the University of Michigan.
 
A survey comprised of six questions is mailed to a stratified sample of 5,000 residences throughoutthe state, with a historical response rate of 5 to 10 percent. Three questions relate to the currenteconomic conditions, two questions address future economic conditions (one year outlook) and onequestion evaluates the consumers’ current plan for purchasing big ticket items.The results are summarized into four indices. One index measures consumer sentiment about thecurrent economic condition, a second measures consumers’ future economic expectations, the thirdis a composite index representing overall consumer confidence, and the fourth index measuresconsumers’ current spending plan on durable goods.

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