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An analysis prepared as part of
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The Impact of Population Shiftson the Food System in Californiain 2030
Celeste LeCompte
Analyst, Ecotrust
Eileen Brady
Editorial assistance, Ecotrust
Analisa Gunnel,
Advisor, Ecotrust
March 2005
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A project of Ecotrust and affiliatesRequested by the Roots of Change CouncilFunded by the Roots of Change Fund
To learn more, visit
www.VividPicture.net
The Impact of Population Shifts on the Food System in California in 20307.1
Background and Summary
In the spring of 2004, the Roots of Change Council and Fund contracted Ecotrust tocreate a roadmap that will enable California to navigate a 25-year journey toward asustainable agricultural economy. Our final deliverable, due in the summer of 2005, willinclude a report that describes the Vivid Picture, including:
•
a vivid picture of a sustainable food system for California for 2030
•
the landscape and population givens for 2030
•
principles for a sustainable food system
•
sustainability indicators
•
an outline of an agenda for changeThis submission represents the population portion of the second of the five majorsections, a discussion of expected population shifts in the next twenty-five years and theimpacts on food and farming related parts of the food system.
Identifying California’s Eaters
This paper seeks to identify what we know about eaters in the California food system atpresent and what, given this information, we can reasonably assume about California’seaters in 2030. The baseline population for this analysis is the California population inJuly of 2000 as reported with revisions in 2002 by the California Department of Finance. For the purposes of this paper, eaters are divided into four age groups—under 5,5 – 19, 20 – 64, and 65+—and among four racial groups—white, black, Hispanic, andother. Rather than focusing on income ranges, this paper selects income distribution as arelevant demographic criteria, highlighting the spending patterns of individuals based onrelative purchasing power. Income distribution data, as reported by the U.S. Departmentof Agriculture Economic Research Service, is divided into quintiles. These categories are,however, somewhat limited in the portrait that they paint of demographic change inCalifornia over the next 25 years. Therefore, throughout this analysis, the interaction of these categories, as well as other groups and subgroups, will be discussed when relevant.
Present statewide demographics
According to the California Department of Finance, California’s current population totalsover 34 million across the entire state. Roughly two-thirds of this population lives inSouthern California—here defined as south of the Tehachapi Mountains and west of theSan Jacinto Mountains.
1
Statistically, the state’s population is 47.0% white, 32.5%Hispanic, 6.5% black, and 13.8% other.
2
Across all racial groups, 59.2% of the populationis between the ages of 20 and 64, 7.3% are under the age of 5, 22.8% are between theages of 5 and 19, and 8.6% of the population is 65 or older. The largest of the sixteendemographic categories is white 20 to 64 year-olds, comprising 28.9% of the total statepopulation.
The Impact of Population Shifts on the Food System in California in 20307.2
Population Statistics for July 2000
White
Hispanic
Black
Other
Total
0-4
800,269
1,186,175
162,171
333,331
2,481,946
5-19
2,837,133
3,295,939
570,469
1,071,375
7,775,846
20-64
9,863,519
6,118,707
1,306,816
2,870,010
20,158,052
65 +
2,547,068
482,164
183,360
414,692
2,922,384
Total
16,047,989
11,082,985
2,222,816
4,689,408
34,043198
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age, Report 03 P-3
. May 2004.
Immigration has played an enormous role in shaping California’s population over thelast several decades, with 37% of foreign-born Californians entering the United Statessince 1990. In 2000, the U.S. Census identified 8.9 million foreign-born individualsliving in California, 26% of the state’s total population, up from 21.7% in 1990.
3
California ranks first in terms of absolute number and percentage of foreign-bornresidents among all U.S. states. 55.6% of the foreign-born population emigrated fromLatin America, the bulk of these (44.3%) coming from Mexico. At present, California exhibits a higher degree of income inequality than the nationalaverage, with a greater share of individuals earning wages in the 10
th
percentile and the90
th
percentile.
4
In part, research indicates that this growing gap has resulted from highimmigration rates, particularly of low-wage earning Hispanics and refugees fromSoutheast Asia. Foreign-born Hispanics now make up 41% of the California populationliving below the federal poverty level.
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Additionally, a rapid increase in the value of educational attainment over the last 20 years has had significant impact on incomeinequality. Wages for workers with less than a high school diploma declined in real termsfrom 1969 to 1999. Income distribution is also highly regional, with poverty rates inCalifornia’s eight largest metropolitan areas ranging from 7% in the San Francisco Bay Area to 22% in the San Joaquin Valley.
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All in all, however, California’s increasingincome inequality is not well understood. Accounting for education, age, race andethnicity, and industry of work, less than 10% of income inequality is explained.
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Projected population demographics
The California Department of Finance creates 50-year projections of population anddemographic statistics at the state-wide and county level. These projections are based ona number of factors that impact the size and composition of the population: (1) survivalof the present population, (2) race and age-specific fertility rates by county, (3) county level information about present and future migration, and (4) race-specific mortality rates. The Department of Finance assumes that current trends in all categories willremain constant at present levels. Therefore, projections to 2030 assume that for thenext 25 years, all groups will maintain their current life expectancy and birth rates, thatannual migration patterns and demographic distribution will remain constant,
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and thatthere will be no major natural or political catastrophes which would otherwise alter thepopulation composition.Under these conditions, current projections suggest striking change over the next 25
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