Socioeconomic Study Is Premised On Incorrect Reserve Estimates
The socio-economic grossly overstates the benefits of horizontal hydrofracking because itgrossly overstates the amount of recoverable reserves. In truth,
the report does not showany reserve estimates used to determine the number of wells, flow rates, etc
– amajor flaw in the methodology. It states that it used estimates from the IOGA, which mayhave over-stated reserves by a factor of 5.These reserve estimates should have beenclearly stated along with their precise source. One can infer from the number of wells andtheir expected production
that the study is based on the now discredited 2011 EIAestimates for recoverable reserves in the Marcellus
, approximately 400 Trillion cubicfeet, an estimate that was off by a factor of 5 according to the more recent and more precise USGS estimate of 80 Tcf for the total Marcellus in four states.
The USGS report was not released until after the socio-economic study was completed. See Figure 1 below.
The extent and productivity of shale gas development has been invariably overstated by“pure play” shale gas companies, by IOGA and gas boosters.
The first step is toexaggerate the productive area of the shale and the amount of recoverable reserves.
Thatis what happened with the socioeconomic study, it is premised on over-blownreserve estimates, by a factor of 5 or more.
Fig. 1 Recoverable Reserve Estimates of the Marcellus Formation