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Ignou Mba Ms08 Solved Assignment

Ignou Mba Ms08 Solved Assignment

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For more Solved Assignments visit:IGNOU4U.BLOGSPOT.COM
IGNOU MBA MS-08 Solved Assignments July 2011
Course Code:MS-8Course Title:Quantitative Analysis for Managerial ApplicationsAssignment Code:MS-8/SEM-II /2011Coverage:All BlocksNote:
Answerall the questions and submit this assignment on or before 31
st
October 2011, to the coordinator of your study center.
1.
Statistics can prove anything’‘Figures cannot lie’Comment on the above two statements, indicating reasons for the existence of suchdivergent views regarding the nature and functions of statistics.
Answer:“Statistics can prove anything” is the statement of distrust:Brief Note on Distrust on Statistics
It is a general belief that “statistics can prove anything.” This statement is partly true & false. Itis false because more statistics should not be taken for granted without proper verification. It istrue because statistics is often used by unscrupulous people to achieve their personal ends. Thisresults in loss of faith or confidence on statistics or in causing distrust ofstatistics.Distrust of statistics literally means lack of trust in statistical data, statistical analysis and theconclusion derived from it. We often hear statements like.i)Statistics is an unreliable science.ii)Statistics are lies of the first order.iii)There are three types of lies-lies, demand lies & statistics.iv)Figures do not lie, liars figuresThese are expressions of distrust in statistics these views of statistics from the misuse of statistics by interested parties. Publicity, advertisers of various products, Governments and other organizations are trying to promote their sectional interest using statistics and statistical methods.This causes distrust of statistics.Some of the important reasons of distrust in statistics are the following:a)Facts basedin figures are more convincing. But these figures can be manipulatedaccording to one’s wishes. This misguides public causing distrust in statistics. b)Sometimes statistical analyses are misinterpreted causing distrust in statistics. Supposingthe mortality rates of patients are more in Indian hospitals. From this one may wronglyconclude that it is safer to treat the patients athome. This type of misinterpretation alsocauses distrust in statistics.c)Statistics are useful tools. One uses them according tohis knowledge and experience. Useof statistics makes a statement more convincing. But its misuse causes distrust. So it isnecessary that people should be adequately prepared to know the reality or to shift thetruth from untruth, good statistics from badstatistics. WI. King has rightly observed“statisticsare likely clayof whichyou can make a “God” or a “Devil” as you please.”
 
For more Solved Assignments visit:IGNOU4U.BLOGSPOT.COMAnotherform of evidence is thatStatistics are a favorite evidence of many writers and speakers.They provide actual numbers in support of ideas and conclusions. If you can show that 75% of high schools seniors cannot find Washington State on a map of North America, then it is strongevidence for your contention that high school seniors are not being taught the geography of theUnited States. Such evidence is not only difficult to refute, it's often accepted as the final word inwhat's true or not true.Statistics are a prime source of proof that what you say is true. Statistics are based on studies: asearch for possible connections between disparate facts that nonetheless have a connection. If you remember your math classes, you will recall the concept of sets and subsets. Statistics are, inlarge measure,concerned with that concept. They are basically telling you the proportion asubset represents in a set. To clarify this idea, look at political polls. Candidate A receives 46%approval, Candidate B receives 43% approval. Thus, the subset "responses favoring CandidateA" is 46% of the whole set, "People asked about Candidates A and B."Another example, from real life. William Chadwick, with his assistant William Farr, during thegreat cholera plague in London in 1831, drew together factors on who was getting the diseaseand where they were getting it in London. They were looking for some common factor thatwould lead to what was the source of the disease. Their statistics led them to the conclusion thatthe polluted waters of the Thames River was the source, and there was a particular pump thatsupplied the water to certain neighborhoods that was a prime source of infection. With these datathey were able to make recommendations which did much to reduce the incidence of cholera inLondon.Statistics also use samples to obtain results, rather than doing actual "head counts". Neilsonratings on how many of what kind of people watch a particular TV program is not determined bythe Neilson company asking all 300 million people in the United States what they arewatchingevery few minutes. What they use is a sample of the population (called the Neilson families) that,demographically, represent the 300 million people. Neilson selects these families very carefullysince each one represents the viewing habits and desires of some 60,000 people. Nonetheless thestatistics generated by the Neilson measurements are used to make programming decisions andset advertising rates and budgets, things that represent billions of dollars. Thus the selection of the sample, whetherNeilson's or incidence of AIDS in the US population, is of paramountimportance in the validity of the statistics thus generated.The above is, of course, a simplistic view of an extremely complicated discipline. It is,nonetheless, the essence of statistics.Statistics are invaluable as evidence in support of conclusions. If you can either find or generatestatistics that show the truth of your conclusions, there are few that would refute your ideas.There are, of course, problems with using statisticsas evidence. Let me remind you of a famoussaying: "There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics." What youmust do is ask yourself some questions: who did the study that came up with the statistics, whatexactly are the statistics measuring, who was asked, how were they asked, and compared withwhat? If one believes in the truth of statistics (and there are many such), then how does oneexplain that the same Presidential candidate can be 20 points ahead and 5 points behindhisopponent in the polls at the same time? After all, both polls are "statistics". What you must beexamine, if you wish to use statistics as evidence, are the above questions.
 
For more Solved Assignments visit:IGNOU4U.BLOGSPOT.COM
“Figures Don’t Lie, but Liars Do Figure” this is the famous quote of statistics.We will prove it with the help of two real life example from history
1)I take First example from the reference of The National Library of New Zealand.“Figures cant Lie” ABOUT A DIVIDEND PLEASANT SURPRISE FOR INVESTORS;CHRISTCHURCH, Jan. 31 (with reference of newspaper correspondent)
A good deal of curiosity was expressed, when Mr.J.Mc Dougall, who has charge of the totalisator at the trottingmeetings in Canterbury, invited the investors on piecework, who won the sportsman’s handicap at the NewZealand Metropolitan. Trotting Club’s meeting on Saturday, paying a substantial dividend, to meet him at hisoffice. They were a mere handful, but they came in from the highways and hedges and at his request signedtheir names to a statement that they had backedthe horse & indicated the windows at which their tickets had been purchased. The mystery was not fathomed for them at the moment and the popular opinion was that thetotalisator had paid out too much money & was anxious to come into own again.The totalisator is of course, generally supposed to be the mechanical embodiment of that well-loved sup- position that “figures cannot lie’’; but it lied very badly on that Saturday says news, through an accident thatwas quite unforeseeable and that cannot in any wayreflect upon its integrity. The blocks of totalisator ticketsare numbered from the figure “0’’ in sequence, with the result that when the totalisator clerk has sold 0,1,2,3 &4, his block shows that 5, which is the next ticket, is the number of tickets that has been disposed of.Unfortunately, in the case of piecework, the block of tickets had come from the printer in a faulty condition.The numbers from 5 to 14 inclusive were missing and when the club officials came to check the figures the block showed15 as its top number, indicating that 15 tickets had been sold instead of 5. The dividend wasworked out on this basis, and it was only when the totalisator proprietors discovered that their cash was£237over that the mistake was discovered. Fortunately the investors were singularly few, and could be easilyidentified by the clerks who had paid out the abort dividend and Mr. Mc Dougall has now accounted for thewhole investors, who are to be paid the additional money tomorrow, after signing the necessary declarations.The mistake was first traced by the fact that the holder of the block of tickets short in his cash and in accordancewith rules of the totalisator had to pay in£5 from his own pocket to make his cash balance. It is intended infuture to have the blocks more systematically checked, in order that there may be no repetition of nay incidentthat was quite unforeseen and that was not blamable to the totalisator officials. The dividend, which was verysubstantial as it originally stood, has now beenincreased by over 50 per cent.
2)I took the 2
nd
example from newspaper “The New York Times ’’ published on 9
th
March 1988 astitled“ A FEW STATISTICS. FIGURES< WHICH CANNOT LIE, PRESENT SOMEASTONISHING RESULTS.” From Christen Advocate.
A recent speaker says that theNegroesin this country have multiplied eight times in a century. As they have7,000,000 now, in 1980 they will amount to 192,000,000. if they maintain the same relative rate of increase theywill. The whites in 10years by birth and immigrationhave increased 30 percent. At this rate there will be800,000,000 whites and over 200,000,000negroes-in all 1,000,000,000-in the United States in 1988. Who believes either of these statements? By that method one can prove that the Methodist Episcopal Church willsoon have more communicants that the world will contain people. Last year it gained 5 percent net.This ratewillsdouble its membership every 14 years. Hence, in 1902 it will have 4,000,000; in 1916, 8,000,000;in 1930,16,000,000;in 1944, 32,000,000;in 1958, 64,000,000;in 1972, 128,000,000 and so doubling every 14 years, inthe year 2084, less than 200 years from the present date, there will be 32,768,000,000 of members of theMethodist Episcopal church in the United Sates alone. Toll on, thenbrethren, Do not let the fact that, accordingto the figures of the speaker quoted above, there will be only 6,400,000,000 negroes and 13,200,000,000whites-in all 19,600,000,000-of people in the united States at that time disturb you. Who cares for a littledeficit of 3,168,000,000? Great is Statistics! Of Course, other denominations are deluding themselves. Theythink they are increasing; but as we are going to include the whole population, and several thousand millionsmore, they must cease to exist! The only trouble is that if some of them continue to grow as at present, themultiplication table will wipe us out in the same way.From above example in favour of the initial statement we proved that ’’figures cannot lie’’.

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