BETWEENTWOAGES

America'sRoleintheTechnetronicEra

ZbigniewBrzezinski

THEVIKINGPRESS/NEWYORK
Copyright1970byZbigniewBrzezinskiAllrightsreserved Firstpublishedin1970byTheVikingPress,Inc.625MadisonAvenue,NewYork,N.Y.10022 PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanadabyTheMacmillanCompanyofCanadaLimited ISBN 670160415 LibraryofCongresscatalogcardnumber:76104162 PrintedinU.S.AbyH.WolffBookMfg.Co. Preparedundertheauspicesofthe ResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairs,ColumbiaUniversity Portionsofthisbookappearedin Encounter indifferentform

ForIan,Mark,andMika

Acknowledgments ThoughthisbookdealswithcommunismonlyinpartandthenprimarilyinrelationtothebroaderissueswithwhichIam concernedtheResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairsofColumbiaUniversityprovidedmewithinvaluableresearch assistanceandwithacongenialandstimulatingsetting.MycolleaguesattheInstitutelittlerealizehowveryhelpfulthey havebeeninthegradualprocessofshapingmyideas,testingmyviews,andenlargingmyperspectives.Themanuscriptwas readandcriticizedbyanumberoffriendsandcolleagues.IamespeciallygratefultoProfessorSamuelP.Huntingtonforhis trenchantcriticismsandveryhelpfulrecommendationstoProfessorAlbertA.Mavrinac,whomaintainedourfriendlytradi tionofhisquestioningmyargumentsandofforcingmetorethinksomeofmypropositionstoMrs.ChristineDodson,the formerAdministrativeAssistantoftheResearchInstitute,whopreparedaveryconstructiveandhighlyperceptivechapter lengthcritiqueoftheentiredraftandtoProfessorAlexanderErlichforsteeringmeawayfromsomeeconomicpitfalls.Iam alsomost obligedandgratefultoMissSophiaSluzar,currentlytheAdministrativeAssistant,whoveryablysupervisedthe overallpreparationofthemanuscriptandwhoearlierwasinstrumentalinpreparingthetablesandassemblingtheneeded data.MissTobyTrister,myresearchassistant,wasindefatigableinexposingmyinaccuracies,infillingbibliographicgaps, andincompletingtheresearch.MissDorothyRodnite,MissMichelleElwyn,andMr.MyronGutmannamiablyand efficientlyevenwhenundergreatpressuresoftimedevotedtheirenergiestothecompletionofthemanuscript.Toallof themIoweadebtwhichIampleasedtoacknowledge. IalsowishtonotemyobligationtoMr.MarshallBestofTheVikingPress,onwhoseexperienceandwisecounselIoften relied,andtoMr.StanleyHochmanforhissensitiveeditorialassistance. Aspecialmentionisduetomywife.InallmywritingIhavenevercomeacrossamoreconscientiousreader,amore ferociouscritic,andamoredetermineddareIsayobstinate?perfectionist.Ihavenohesitationinsaying,thoughonly nowIsayitwithrelief,thatanymeritthisessaymayhaveisinlargemeasureduetoherefforts. Z.B. October1969

Contents
CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................................... 3 THEGLOBALIMPACTOF THE ................................................................................................................ 8 TECHNETRONICREVOLUTION............................................................................................................... 8 1. THE ONSETOFTHETECHNETRONICAGE ................................................................................................... 10 NewSocialPatterns ................................................................................................................................ 10 SocialExplosion/Implosion ..................................................................................................................... 11 GlobalAbsorption................................................................................................................................... 13 2. THE AMBIVALENTDISSEMINATOR ............................................................................................................ 15 TheAmericanImpact .............................................................................................................................. 15 NewImperialism? ................................................................................................................................... 18 3. GLOBAL GHETTOS................................................................................................................................... 19 ProspectsforChange .............................................................................................................................. 20 TheSubjectiveTransformation ................................................................................................................ 21 ThePoliticalVacuum .............................................................................................................................. 25 4. GLOBAL FRAGMENTATIONAND UNIFICATION ........................................................................................... 26 FragmentedCongestion .......................................................................................................................... 26 TowardaPlanetaryConsciousness ......................................................................................................... 28 THEAGEOFVOLATILE BELIEF............................................................................................................ 31 1. THE QUESTFORA UNIVERSAL VISION...................................................................................................... 31 TheUniversalReligions .......................................................................................................................... 32 TheNationalIdentity............................................................................................................................... 33 IdeologicalUniversalism......................................................................................................................... 34 2. TURBULENCEWITHIN INSTITUTIONALIZEDBELIEFS ................................................................................... 35 InstitutionalMarxism .............................................................................................................................. 35 OrganizedChristianity ............................................................................................................................ 38 PrivatizationofBelief.............................................................................................................................. 40 3. HISTRIONICSASHISTORYINTRANSITION ................................................................................................. 41 EscapefromReason ................................................................................................................................ 42 ThePoliticalDimension .......................................................................................................................... 43 HistoricalDiscontinuity .......................................................................................................................... 45 4. IDEASAND IDEALSBEYOND IDEOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 47 TheQuestforEquality............................................................................................................................. 47 SyncreticBelief ....................................................................................................................................... 48 COMMUNISM:THEPROBLEMOFRELEVANCE ................................................................................ 52 1. THE STALINISTPARADOX......................................................................................................................... 52 TheNecessityofStalinism ....................................................................................................................... 53 ImperialPacification............................................................................................................................... 55 2. THE BUREAUCRATIZATIONOFBOREDOM .................................................................................................. 57 TheInnovativeRelationship .................................................................................................................... 57 DefensiveOrthodoxy ............................................................................................................................... 58 PerspectiveonTomorrow........................................................................................................................ 61 3. THE SOVIETFUTURE ................................................................................................................................ 62 InternalDilemmas................................................................................................................................... 62 AlternativePaths..................................................................................................................................... 66 TheProblemofVitality............................................................................................................................ 69 4. SECTARIANCOMMUNISM......................................................................................................................... 70 Phases .................................................................................................................................................... 70 AssimilatedCommunisms ........................................................................................................................ 71 ChinaandGlobalRevolution .................................................................................................................. 73 THEAMERICANTRANSITION................................................................................................................ 77 1. THE THIRD AMERICANREVOLUTION ........................................................................................................ 78 ThePaceandThrustofProgress............................................................................................................. 79 TheUncertaintyofProgress.................................................................................................................... 81 3

TheFutilityofPolitics............................................................................................................................. 83 2. THE NEW LEFT REACTION ........................................................................................................................ 86 InfantileIdeology .................................................................................................................................... 86 RevolutionariesinSearchofRevolution................................................................................................... 88 TheHistoricFunctionoftheMilitantLeft ................................................................................................ 90 3. THE CRISISOFLIBERALISM...................................................................................................................... 91 THE LIBERALJANUS .................................................................................................................................... 92 THE PRICEOFVICTORIOUSSKEPTICISM ........................................................................................................ 92 TheEndofLiberalDemocracy? .............................................................................................................. 95 AMERICAANDTHEWORLD .................................................................................................................. 98 1. THE AMERICAN FUTURE........................................................................................................................... 98 ParticipatoryPluralism........................................................................................................................... 99 ChangeinCulturalFormation............................................................................................................... 101 RationalHumanism............................................................................................................................... 103 2. INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS ................................................................................................................... 104 TheRevolutionaryProcess .................................................................................................................... 105 USA/USSR:LessIntensive,MoreExtensiveRivalry ............................................................................... 107 PolicyImplications................................................................................................................................ 108 3. A COMMUNITYOFTHE DEVELOPEDNATIONS......................................................................................... 111 WesternEuropeandJapan.................................................................................................................... 111 StructureandFocus .............................................................................................................................. 112 TheCommunistStates ........................................................................................................................... 113 RisksandAdvantages............................................................................................................................ 114 REFERENCENOTES................................................................................................................................ 117 INDEX......................................................................................................................................................... 123

Introduction Perhapsthetimeispastforthecomprehensive"grand"vision.Insomeways,itwasanecessary substituteforignorance,acompensationinbreadthforthelackofdepthinman'sunderstandingof hisworld.But evenifthisisso,theresultofmoreknowledgemaybegreaterignoranceor,atleast,thefeelingofignorance aboutwhereweareandwhereweareheading,andparticularlywhereweshouldhead,thanwastruewhenin factweknewlessbutthoughtweknewmore. Iamnotsurethatthisneedbeso.Inanycase,Iamnotsatisfiedwiththefragmented,microscopic understandingoftheparts,andIfeeltheneedforsomeevenifcrudeapproximationofalargerperspective. Thisbookisanefforttoprovidesuchaperspective.Itisanattempttodefinethemeaningwithinadynamic frameworkofamajoraspectofourcontemporaryreality:theemergingglobalpoliticalprocesswhich increasinglyblursthetraditionaldistinctionsbetweendomestic andinternationalpolitics.Inworkingtowardthat definition,IshallfocusparticularlyonthemeaningfortheUnitedStatesoftheemergenceofthisprocess, seekingtodrawimplicationsfromanexaminationoftheforcesthataremoldingit. Timeandspaceshapeourperceptionofreality.Thespecificmomentandtheparticularsettingdictate thewayinternationalestimatesandprioritiesaredefined.Sometimes,whenthemomentishistorically"ripe,"the settingandthetimemaycoalescetoprovideaspecialinsight.Aperceptiveformulaiseasiertoarticulateina momentofspecialstress.Conditionsofwar,crisis,tensionareinthatsenseparticularlyfertile.Thesituationof crisispermitssharpervaluejudgments,inkeepingwithman'sancientproclivityfordividinghisrealityintogood andevil.(Marxistdialecticisclearlyinthistradition,anditinfusesmoraldichotomyintoeveryassessment.)But shortofthatcriticalconditionwhichinitsmostextremeforminvolvesthealternativesofwarorpeace globalpoliticsdonotlendthemselvestopatformulationsandclearcutpredictions,eveninasettingofextensive change.Asaresultinmosttimesitisextraordinarilydifficulttoliberateoneselffromtheconfininginfluence oftheimmediateandtoperceivefromadetachedperspectivethebroadersweepofevents. Anyabstractattempttoarriveatacapsuleformulaisboundtocontainameasureofdistortion.The influencesthatconditionrelationsamongstatesandthebroadevolutionof internationalaffairsaretoovarious. Nonetheless,aslongasweareawarethatanysuchformulationinescapablycontainsagermoffalsehoodand hencemustbetentativetheattemptrepresentsanadvancetowardatleastapartialunderstanding.The alternativeiscapitulationtocomplexity:theadmissionthatnosensecanbeextractedfromwhatishappening. Theconsequenttriumphofignoranceexactsitsowntributeintheformofunstableandreactivepolicies,the substitutionofslogansforthought, therigidadherencetogeneralizedformulasmadeinanotherageandin responsetocircumstancesthataredifferentinessencefromourown,evenifsuperficiallysimilar. Today,themostindustriallyadvancedcountries(inthefirstinstance,theUnitedStates)arebeginning toemergefromtheindustrialstageoftheirdevelopment.Theyareenteringanageinwhichtechnologyand especiallyelectronicshencemyneologism"technetronic"*areincreasinglybecomingtheprincipal determinantsofsocialchange,alteringthemores,thesocialstructure,thevalues,andtheglobaloutlookof society.Andpreciselybecausetodaychangeissorapidandsocomplex,itisperhapsmoreimportantthanever beforethatourconductofforeignaffairsbeguidedbyasenseofhistoryandtospeakofhistoryinthis contextistospeaksimultaneouslyofthepastandofthefuture. Sinceitfocusesoninternationalaffairs,thisbookisatmostonlyaverypartialresponsetotheneedfor amorecomprehensiveassessment.It isnotanattempttosumupthehumancondition,tocombinephilosophy andscience,toprovideanswerstomoreperplexingquestionsconcerningourreality.Itismuchmoremodest thanthat,andyetIamuneasilyawarethatitisalreadymuchtooambitious,becauseitunavoidablytoucheson alltheseissues. Thebookisdividedintofivemajorparts.Thefirstdealswiththeimpactofthescientifictechnological revolutiononworldaffairsingeneral,discussingmorespecificallytheambiguouspositionof theprincipal disseminatorofthatrevolutiontheUnitedStatesandanalyzingtheeffectsoftherevolutiononthesocalled ThirdWorld.Thesecondpartexamineshowtheforegoingconsiderationshaveaffectedthecontent,style,and formatofman'spoliticaloutlookonhisglobalreality,withparticularreferencetothechangingroleofideology. Thethirdpartassessesthecontemporaryrelevanceofcommunismtoproblemsofmodernity,lookingfirstatthe experienceoftheSovietUnionandthenexaminingtheoverallconditionofinternationalcommunismasa movementthatoncesoughttocombineinternationalismandhumanism.ThefourthpartfocusesontheUnited States,asocietythatisbothasocialpioneerandaguineapigformankinditseeksto definethethrustofchange andthehistoricalmeaningofthecurrentAmericantransition.Thefifthpartoutlinesinverybroadtermsthe generaldirectionsthatAmericamighttakeinordertomakeaneffectiveresponsetothepreviouslydiscussed foreignanddomesticdilemmas. Havingsaidwhatthebookdoesattempt,itmightbehelpfultothereaderalsotoindicatewhatitdoes notattempt.Firstofall,itisnotanexercisein"futurology"itisanefforttomakesenseofpresenttrends,to developadynamicperspectiveonwhatishappening.Secondly,itisnotapolicybook,inthesensethatitsobject isnottodevelopsystematicallyacoherentseriesofprescriptionsandprograms.InPartV,however,itdoestry toindicatethegeneraldirectionstowardwhichAmericashouldand,insomerespects,mayhead. Inthecourseofdevelopingthesetheses,Ihaveexpandedonsomeoftheideasinitiallyadvancedinmy article"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge,"published inEncounter,January1968,whichgaveriseto considerablecontroversy.IshouldaddthatnotonlyhaveItriedtoamplifyandclarifysomeoftherather 5

condensedpointsmadeinthatarticle,butIhavesignificantlyrevisedsomeofmyviewsinthelightof constructivecriticismsmadebymycolleagues.Moreover,thatarticleaddresseditselftoonlyoneaspect (discussedprimarilyinPartI)ofthemuchlargercanvasthatIhavetriedtopaintinthisvolume. Itismyhopethatthisessaywillhelptoprovidethereaderwithabettergraspofthenatureofthe politicalworldwelivein,oftheforcesshapingit,ofthedirectionsitispursuing.Inthatsense,itmightperhaps contributetoasharperperceptionofthenewpoliticalprocessesenvelopingourworldandmovebeyondthe moretraditionalformsofexamininginternationalpolitics.Ihope,too,thatthetentativepropositions,the generalizations,andthethesesadvancedherethoughnecessarilyspeculative,arbitrary,andinverymany respectsinescapablyinadequatemaycontributetotheincreasingdiscussionofAmerica'sroleintheworld. Inthecourseofthework,Ihaveexpressedmyownopinionsandexposedmyprejudices.Thiseffortis, therefore,moreinthenatureofa"thinkpiece,"backedbyevidence,thanofasystematicexerciseinsocial * science methodology. Finally,letmeendthisintroductionwithaconfessionthatsomewhatanticipatesmyargument:an apocalypticmindedreadermayfindmythesisuncongenialbecausemyviewofAmerica'sroleintheworldis stillanoptimisticone.Isay"still"becauseIamgreatlytroubledbythedilemmaswefaceathomeandabroad, andevenmoresobythesocialandphilosophicalimplicationsofthedirectionofchangeinourtime. Nonetheless,myoptimismisreal.AlthoughIdonotmeantominimizethegravityofAmerica's problemstheircatalogueislong,thedilemmasareacute,andthesignsofameaningfulresponseareatmost ambivalentItrulybelievethatthissocietyhasthecapacity,the talent,thewealth,and,increasingly,thewillto surmountthedifficultiesinherentinthiscurrenthistorictransition.

Inthisrespect,IsharetheviewofBarringtonMoore,Jr.,that"whenwesetthedominantbodyofcurrentthinkingagainstimportantfigures inthenineteenthcentury,thefollowingdifferencesemerge.Firstofall,thecriticalspirithasallbutdisappeared.Second,modernsociology, andperhapstoalesserextentalsomodernpoliticalscience,economics,andpsychology,areahistorical.Third,modernsocialsciencetends tobeabstractandformal.Inresearch,socialsciencetodaydisplaysconsiderabletechnicalvirtuosity. Butthisvirtuosityhasbeengainedat theexpenseofcontent.Modernsociologyhaslesstosayaboutsocietythanitdidfiftyyearsago"(PoliticalPowerandSocialTheory, Cambridge,Mass.,1958,p.123).

BETWEENTWOAGES
"Humanlifeisreducedtorealsuffering,tohell,onlywhentwoages,twoculturesandreligionsoverlap.. .. Therearetimeswhenawholegenerationiscaughtinthiswaybetweentwoages,twomodesoflife,withthe consequencethatitlosesallpowertounderstanditselfandhasnostandard,nosecurity,nosimple acquiescence." HERMANN HESSE, Steppenwolf

PARTI
TheGlobalImpactofthe TechnetronicRevolution
Theparadoxofourtimeisthathumanityisbecomingsimultaneouslymoreunifiedandmore fragmented.Thatistheprincipalthrustofcontemporarychange.Timeandspacehavebecomesocompressed thatglobalpoliticsmanifestatendencytowardlarger,moreinterwovenformsofcooperationaswellastoward thedissolutionofestablishedinstitutionalandideologicalloyalties.Humanityisbecomingmoreintegraland intimateevenasthedifferencesintheconditionoftheseparatesocietiesarewidening.Underthese circumstancesproximity,insteadofpromotingunity,givesrisetotensionspromptedbyanewsenseofglobal congestion. Anewpatternofinternationalpoliticsisemerging.Theworldisceasingtobeanarenainwhich relativelyselfcontained,"sovereign,"andhomogeneousnationsinteract,collaborate,clash,ormakewar. Internationalpolitics,intheoriginalsenseoftheterm,werebornwhengroupsofpeoplebegantoidentify themselvesandothersinmutuallyexclusiveterms(territory,language,symbols,beliefs),andwhenthat identificationbecameinturnthedominantfactorinrelationsbetweenthesegroups.Theconceptofnational interestbasedongeographicalfactors, traditionalanimositiesorfriendships,economics,andsecurityconsid erationsimpliedadegreeofautonomyandspecificitythatwaspossibleonlysolongasnationswere sufficientlyseparatedintimeandspacetohaveboththeroomtomaneuverandthe distanceneededtomaintain separateidentity. Duringtheclassicaleraofinternationalpolitics,weapons,communications,economics,andideology wereallessentiallynationalinscope.Withtheinventionofmodernartillery,weaponryrequirednational arsenalsandstandingarmiesinmorerecenttimesitcouldbeeffectivelyandrapidlydeployedbyonenation againstthefrontiersofanother.Communications,especiallysincetheinventionofthesteamengineandthe resultingageofrailroads,reinforcednationalintegrationbymakingitpossibletomovepeopleandgoodsacross mostnationsinaperiodoftimerarelyexceedingtwodays.Nationaleconomies,frequentlyrestingonautarkic principles,stimulatedboththeawarenessandthedevelopmentofcollectivevestedinterest,protectedbytariff * walls.Nationalismsopersonalizedcommunityfeelingsthatthenationbecameanextensionoftheego. Allfourfactorsmentionedabovearenowbecomingglobal.Weaponsoftotaldestructivepowercanbe appliedatanypointontheglobeinamatterofminutesinlesstime,infact,thanittakesforthepoliceina majorcitytorespondtoanemergencycall.Theentireglobeisincloserreachandtouchthanamiddlesized Europeanpowerwastoitsowncapital fiftyyearsago.Transnationaltiesaregaininginimportance,whilethe claimsofnationalism,thoughstillintense,arenonethelessbecomingdiluted.Thischange,naturally,hasgone furthestinthemostadvancedcountries,butnocountryisnowimmunetoit.Theconsequenceisaneweraan eraoftheglobalpoliticalprocess. Yetthoughtheprocessisglobal,realunityofmankindremainsremote.Thecontemporaryworldis undergoingachangeinmanyrespectssimilartothatpromptedbytheearlierappearanceoflargepopulation centers.Thegrowthofsuchcentersweakenedintimateanddirectlinesofauthorityandcontributedtothe appearanceofmanyconflictingandcrosscuttingallegiances.Atypicalcitydwelleridentifieshimself simultaneouslywithavarietyofgroupsoccupational,religious,leisure,political andonlyrarelyoperatesin anenvironmentthatisexclusivelydominatedbyasinglesystemofvaluesandaunilinearpersonalcommitment. Americanmetropolitanpoliticsaretypicallymessy:specialinterestandpressuregroups,ethniccommunities, politicalorganizations,religiousinstitutions,majorindustrialorfinancialforces,andeventhecriminal underworldinteractinapatternthatsimultaneouslyincludescontinuouslimitedwarfare andaccommodation. Globalpolitiesareacquiringsomeanalogouscharacteristics.Nationsofdifferentsizesand developmentallyindifferenthistoricalepochsinteract,creatingfriction,variablepatternsofaccommodation,and changingalignments.While theformalrulesofthegamemaintaintheillusionthatitisplayedonlybythose playerscalled"states"and,whenwarbreaksout,thestatesbecometheonlysignificantplayersshortofwar thegameis trulyplayedonamuchmoreinformalbasis,withmuchmoremixedparticipation.Somestates possessoverwhelmingpowerothers,the"ministates,"areovershadowedbymultimilliondollarinternational corporations,majorbanks.andfinancialinterests,transnationalorganizationsofreligiousorideological character,andtheemerginginternationalinstitutionsthatinsomecases"represent"theinterestsoftheminor players(forexample,theUN)orinothercasesmaskthepowerofthemajorones(forexample,theWarsawPact orSEATO). Themethodsforcopingwithinternationalconflictsarehence becomingsimilartothosefordealing
*

Thiswasamajorchangefromtheearlierfeudalage.Atthattimeweaponswerelargelypersonal,communicationswere verylimitedandprimarilyoral,theeconomywasprimitiveandrural,andideologystresseddirect,religionbasedobeisancetoa
personallyknownchief.Theseconditionsthusreinforcedandreflectedamorefragmented"intranational"politicalprocess.

withurbandiscord.Acharacteristicfeatureofconcentratedhumanityistheroutinizationofconflict.Direct violencebecomesincreasinglyregulatedandrestricted,andultimatelycomestobeconsideredasadeviation fromthenorm.Organizedmechanisms,intheformofuniformed,salariedpersonnel,areestablishedtoconfine violencetosociallytolerablelimits.Acertainmeasureofcrimeisacceptedasunavoidableforthesakeoforder, therefore,organizedcrimeisgenerallypreferredtoanarchicviolence,thusindirectlyandinformallybecoming anextensionoforder. Theroutinizationofconflictonaglobalscalehasbeenthegoalofstatesmenformanydecades. Agreements,conventions,andpactshavesoughttogovernit.Noneofthesecouldproveeffectiveinasystemof relativelydistinctiveandsovereignunitsbuttheappearanceofrapidcommunications,whichcreatednotonly physicalproximitybutalsoinstantawarenessofdistantevents,andtheonsetofthenuclearage,whichforthe firsttimemadetrulydestructiveglobalpoweravailabletoatleasttwostates,fundamentallyalteredthepatternof internationalconflict.Ontheonehandthesefactorsdepresseditslevel,andontheothertheyheightenedits potentialandincreaseditsscope. Urbanunderworldwarsdonotgiverisetomuchmoralrevulsionnoraretheyseenasmajorthreatsto socialpeace.Onlyoutbreaksofviolencedirectedatthatpeace,as representedbyhumanlifeandmajorvested interestsbanks,shops,orprivateproperty,forexampleareresolutelycombated.Similarly,inthemore advancedportionsoftheworldthereisatendencyamongtheestablishmentandthemiddleclassofthe"global city"tobeindifferenttoThirdWorldconflictsandtoviewthemasnecessaryattributesofalowlevelof developmentprovided,ofcourse,thatsuchconflictsdonotfeedbackintotherelationsamongthemore powerfulstates.WarsintheThirdWorld thusseemtolerableaslongastheirinternationalscaleiscontainedata * levelthatdoesnotseemtothreatenmajorinterests. Inourtimetheroutinizationofconflicthasalsomeantashiftfromsustainedwarfaretosporadic outbreaksofviolence.Sustained,prolongedwarfarewasmadepossiblebytheindustrialage.Inearliertimes armiesconfrontedeachother,foughtpitched,headonbattles,and,likegladiatorsofold,scoreddecisivevic toriesorwentdownindefeat.Theindustrialagepermittedsocietiestomobilizetheirmanpowerandresources forprolongedbutindecisivestrugglesresemblingclassicalwrestlingandrequiringbothskillandendurance. Nuclearweaponsneverusedinconflictbetweennuclearpowersposethepossibilityofsuchmutual annihilationthattheytendtofreezetheirpossessorsintopassiverestraint,withsporadicoutbreaksofViolence occurringontheperipheriesoftheconfrontation.Though,inthepast,violencetendedtoresultintheuseof maximumavailablepower,todaythosestatespossessingmaximumpowerstrivetoemployaminimuminthe assertionoftheirinterests. Sincetheappearanceofnuclearweapons,relationsbetweenthesuperpowershavebeengovernedbya rudimentarycodeofrestraintforgedbytrialanderrorinthecourseofconfrontationsrangingfromKorea throughBerlintoCuba.Itislikelythatintheabsenceoftheseweaponswarwouldlongsincehavebrokenout betweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion.Theirdestructivepowerhasthus hadabasiceffectonthe degreetowhichforceisappliedintherelationsamongstates,compellinganunprecedenteddegreeofprudence inthe behaviourofthemostpowerfulstates.Withinthefragileframeworkinwhichthecontemporary transformationofourrealityoccurs,nuclearweaponshavethuscreatedanentirelynovelsystemofdeterrence fromtherelianceonoverwhelmingpower. Inthecaseofurbanpolitics,theweaknessofacceptedandrespectedimmediateauthorityis compensatedforbythesenseofhigherallegiancetothenation,asrepresentedbytheinstitutionalexpressionof statepower.Theglobalcitylacksthathigherdimensionandmuchofthecontemporarysearchfororderisan attempttocreateit,ortofindsomeequilibriumshortof it.Otherwise,however,globalpoliticsaresimilarly characterizedbytheconfusingpatternofinvolvement,congestion,andinteraction,whichcumulatively,though gradually,underminestheexclusivenessandtheprimacyofthosehithertorelativelywatertightcompartments, thenationstates.Intheprocess,internationalpoliticsgraduallybecomeamuchmoreintimateandoverlapping process. Erasarehistoricalabstractions.Theyarealsoanintellectualconvenience:theyaremeantto bemilestonesona roadthatoveraperiodoftimechangesimperceptiblyandyetquiteprofoundly.Itisamatterofarbitrary judgmentwhenoneeraendsandanewonebeginsneithertheendnorthebeginningcanbeclearlyandsharply defined.Ontheformalplane,politicsasaglobalprocessoperatemuchastheydidinthepast,buttheinner realityofthatprocessisincreasinglyshapedbyforceswhoseinfluenceorscopetranscendnationallines.

duringthepost1945years,thedevelopmentofnuclearweapons,theformationofpowerblocsandmultilateralalliancesystems,andthein creasingfinancialcostofmodernwarfare,haveallbeenfactorsinhibitingtheoutbreakofformalwarfarebetweentheadvanced,industrial nations.Themajorityof'conflicts'duringtheseyearshavetakenplaceinAfrica,theMiddleEastandAsia,thesocalledThirdWorld.Anda largenumberofthemhavefollowedonorbeenassociatedwiththebreakupofcolonialempires,whetherOttoman,British,Frenchor Japanese,andthesubsequentemergenceofnewstateswhichareoftensmall,poorandinsecure"(DavidWood,"ConflictintheTwentieth Century,"AdelphiPapers,June1968,p.19).Theabovestudycontainsalistofeightyconflictsthathaveoccurredintheyears19451967. AllbuteightoftheseconflictsinvolvedThirdWorldparticipantsonbothsides. Theanalogywithmetropolitanpoliticsis alsomadebyTheodoreH.VonLaueinhisthoughtfulbook TheGlobalCity(NewYork,1969). VonLauejsparticularlystimulatinginhisanalysisoftheimpactoftheWestern"metropolitan"systemonworldpoliticsduringthelast century.

1.TheOnsetoftheTechnetronicAge
Theimpactofscienceandtechnology onmanandhissociety,especiallyinthemoreadvanced countriesoftheworld,isbecomingthemajorsourceofcontemporarychange.Recentyearshaveseena proliferationofexcitingandchallengingliteratureonthefuture.IntheUnitedStates,inWesternEurope,and,to alesserdegree,inJapanandintheSovietUnion,anumberofsystematic,scholarlyeffortshavebeenmadeto project,predict,andgraspwhatthefutureholdsforus. Thetransformationthatisnowtakingplace,especiallyinAmerica, isalreadycreatingasociety 1 * increasinglyunlikeitsindustrialpredecessor. Thepostindustrialsocietyisbecominga"technetronic"society: asocietythatisshapedculturally,psychologically,socially,andeconomicallybytheimpactoftechnologyand electronicsparticularlyintheareaofcomputersandcommunications.Theindustrialprocessisnolongerthe principaldeterminantofsocialchange,alteringthemores,thesocialstructure,andthevaluesofsociety.Inthe industrialsocietytechnicalknowledgewasappliedprimarilytoonespecificend:theaccelerationand improvementofproduction techniques.Socialconsequenceswerealaterbyproductofthisparamountconcern. Inthe technetronicsocietyscientificandtechnicalknowledge,inadditiontoenhancingproduction capabilities,quicklyspillsovertoaffectalmostallaspectsoflifedirectly.Accordingly,boththegrowing capacityfortheinstantcalculationofthemostcomplexinteractionsandtheincreasingavailabilityof biochemicalmeansofhumancontrolaugmentthepotentialscopeofconsciouslychosendirection,andthereby alsothepressurestodirect,tochoose,andtochange. Relianceonthesenewtechniquesofcalculationandcommunicationenhancesthesocialimportanceof humanintelligenceandtheimmediaterelevanceoflearning.Theneedtointegratesocialchangeisheightened bytheincreasedabilitytodecipherthepatternsofchangethisinturnincreasesthesignificanceofbasic assumptionsconcerningthenatureofmanandthedesirabilityofoneoranotherformofsocialorganization. Sciencetherebyintensifiesratherthandiminishestherelevanceofvalues,butit demandsthattheybecastin termsthatgobeyondthemorecrudeideologiesoftheindustrialage.(ThisthemeisdevelopedfurtherinPartII.)

NewSocialPatterns
ForNorbertWiener,"thelocusofanearlierindustrialrevolutionbeforethemainindustrialrevolution"istobe foundinthefifteenthcenturyresearchpertainingtonavigation(thenauticalcompass),aswellasinthe 2 developmentofgunpowderandprinting. Todaythefunctionalequivalentofnavigationisthethrustintospace, whichrequiresarapidcomputingcapacitybeyondthemeansofthehumanbraintheequivalentofgunpowderis modernnuclearphysics,andthatofprintingistelevisionandlongrangeinstantcommunications.The consequenceofthisnewtechnetronicrevolutionistheprogressiveemergenceofasocietythatincreasingly differsfromtheindustrialone inavarietyofeconomic,political,andsocialaspects.Thefollowingexamples maybebrieflycitedtosummarizesomeofthecontrasts: (1)Inanindustrialsocietythemodeofproductionshiftsfrom agriculturetoindustry,withtheuseofhumanandanimalmusclesupplantedbymachineoperation.Inthe technetronicsocietyindustrialemploymentyieldstoservices,withautomationandcyberneticsreplacingthe operationofmachinesbyindividuals. (2)Problemsofemploymentandunemploymenttosaynothingofthepriorurbanizationofthepostrural laborforcedominatetherelationshipbetweenemployers,labor,andthemarketintheindustrialsociety,and theassuranceofminimumwelfaretothenewindustrialmassesisasourceofmajorconcern.Intheemerging newsocietyquestionsrelatingtotheobsolescenceofskills,security,vacations,leisure,andprofitsharing dominatetherelationship,andthepsychicwellbeingofmillionsofrelativelysecurebutpotentiallyaimless lowermiddleclassbluecollarworkersbecomesagrowingproblem. (3)Breakingdowntraditionalbarrierstoeducation,andthuscreatingthebasicpointofdepartureforsocial advancement,isamajorgoalofsocialreformersintheindustrialsociety.Education,availableforlimitedand specificperiodsoftime,isinitiallyconcernedwithovercomingilliteracyandsubsequentlywithtechnical training,basedlargelyonwritten,sequentialreasoning.Inthetechnetronicsocietynotonlyiseducation universalbutadvancedtrainingisavailabletoalmostallwhohavethebasictalents,andthereisfargreater emphasisonqualityselection.Theessentialproblemistodiscoverthemosteffectivetechniquesfortherational exploitationofsocialtalent.Thelatestcommunicationandcalculatingtechniquesareemployedinthistask.The educationalprocessbecomesalengthieroneandisincreasinglyreliantonaudiovisualaids.Inaddition,theflow ofnewknowledgenecessitatesmoreandmorefrequentrefresherstudies. (4) Intheindustrialsocietysocialleadershipshiftsfromthetraditionalruralaristocratictoanurbanplutocratic elite.Newlyacquiredwealthisitsfoundation,andintensecompetitiontheoutletaswellasthestimulusfor itsenergy.Inthetechnetronicsocietyplutocraticpreeminenceischallengedbythepoliticalleadership,whichis itselfincreasinglypermeatedbyindividuals
*

Theterm"postindustrial"isusedbyDanielBell,whohasdonemuchofthepioneeringthinkingonthesubject.However,Iprefertouse theneologism"technetronic,"becauseitconveysmoredirectlythecharacteroftheprincipalimpulsesforchangeinourtime.Similarly,the term"industrial"describedwhatotherwisecouldhavebeencalledthe"postagricultural"age.

10

possessingspecialskillsandintellectualtalents.Knowledgebecomesatoolofpowerandtheeffective mobilizationoftalentanimportantwaytoacquirepower. (5)Theuniversityinanindustrialsocietyincontrasttothesituationinmedievaltimesisanaloofivory tower,therepositoryofirrelevant,evenifrespected,wisdom,andforabrieftimethefountainheadforbudding membersoftheestablishedsocialelite.Inthetechnetronicsocietytheuniversitybecomesanintensely involved "thinktank,"thesourceofmuchsustainedpoliticalplanningandsocialinnovation. (6)Theturmoilinherentintheshiftfromarigidlytraditionalruralsocietytoanurbanoneengendersan inclinationtoseektotalanswerstosocialdilemmas,thuscausingideologiestothriveintheindustrializing society.(TheAmericanexceptiontothisrulewasduetotheabsenceofafeudaltradition,apointwelldeveloped byLouisHartz.)Intheindustrialageliteracymakesforstaticinterrelatedconceptualthinking,congenialto ideologicalsystems.Inthetechnetronicsocietyaudiovisualcommunicationspromptmorechangeable,disparate viewsofreality,notcompressibleintoformalsystems,evenastherequirementsofscienceandthenew computativetechniquesplaceapremiumonmathematicallogicandsystematicreasoning.Theresultingtension isfeltmostacutelybyscientists,withtheconsequencethatsomeseektoconfinereasontosciencewhile expressingtheiremotionsthroughpolitics.Moreover,theincreasingabilitytoreducesocialconflictsto quantifiableandmeasurabledimensionsreinforcesthetrendtowardamorepragmaticapproachtosocial problems,whileitsimultaneouslystimulatesnewconcernswithpreserving"humane"values. (7)Intheindustrialsociety,asthehithertopassivemassesbecomeactivethereareintensepoliticalconflicts oversuchmattersasdisenfranchisementandtherighttovote.Theissueofpoliticalparticipationisacrucialone. Inthetechnetronicagethequestionisincreasinglyoneofensuringrealparticipationindecisionsthatseemtoo complexandtoofarremovedfromtheaveragecitizen.Politicalalienationbecomesaproblem.Similarly,the issueofpoliticaleqaalityofthesexesgiveswaytoastruggleforthesexualequalityofwomen.Intheindustrial societywoman__theoperatorofmachinesceasestobephysicallyinferiorto themale,aconsiderationofsome importanceinrurallife,andbeginstodemandherpoliticalrights.Intheemergingtechnetronicsociety automationthreatensbothmalesandfemales,intellectualtalentiscomputable,the"pill"encouragessexual equality,andwomenbegintoclaimcompleteequality. (8)Thenewlyenfranchisedmassesareorganizedintheindustrialsocietybytradeunionsandpoliticalparties andunifiedbyrelativelysimpleandsomewhatideologicalprograms.Moreover,politicalattitudesareinfluenced byappealstonationalistsentiments,communicatedthroughthemassiveincreaseofnewspapersemploying, naturally,thereaders'nationallanguage.Inthetechnetronicsocietythetrendseemstobetowardaggregatingthe individualsupportofmillionsofunorganizedcitizens,whoareeasilywithinthereachofmagneticandattractive personalities,andeffectivelyexploitingthelatestcommunicationtechniquestomanipulateemotionsandcontrol reason.Relianceontelevisionandhencethetendencytoreplacelanguagewithimagery,whichisinternational ratherthannational,andtoincludewarcoverageorscenesofhungerinplacesasdistantas,forexample,India createsasomewhatmorecosmopolitan,thoughhighlyimpressionistic, involvementinglobalaffairs. (9)Economicpowerintheearlyphaseofindustrializationtendstobepersonalized,byeithergreat entrepreneurslikeHenryFordorbureaucraticindustrialofficialslikeKaganovich,orMine(inStalinistPoland). Thetendencytowarddepersonalizationeconomicpowerisstimulatedinthenextstagebytheappearanceofa highlycomplexinterdependencebetweengovernmentalinstitutions(includingthemilitary),scientific establishments,andindustrialorganizations.Aseconomicpowerbecomesinseparablylinkedwithpolitical power,itbecomesmoreinvisibleandthesenseofindividualfutilityincfeases. (10)Inanindustrialsocietytheacquisitionofgoodsandtheaccumulationofpersonalwealthbecomeformsof socialattainmentforanunprecedentedlylargenumberofpeople.Inthetechnetronicsocietytheadaptationof sciencetohumaneendsandagrowingconcernwiththequalityoflifebecomebothpossibleandincreasinglya moralimperativeforalargenumberofcitizens,especiallytheyoung. Eventually,thesechangesandmanyothers,includingsomethatmoredirectlyaffectthepersonalityand qualityofthehumanbeinghimself,willmakethetechnetronicsocietyasdifferentfromtheindustrialasthe * industrialwasfromtheagrarian. Andjustastheshiftfromanagrarianeconomyandfeudalpoliticstowardan industrialsocietyandpoliticalsystemsbasedontheindividual'semotionalidentificationwiththenationstate gaverisetocontemporaryinternational politics,sotheappearanceofthetechnetronicsocietyreflectstheonset ofanewrelationshipbetweenmanandhisexpandedglobalreality.

SocialExplosion/Implosion
Thisnewrelationshipisatenseone:manhasstilltodefineitconceptuallyandtherebyrenderit comprehensibletohimself.Ourexpandedglobalrealityissimultaneouslyfragmentingandthrustingitselfin uponus.Theresultofthecoincidentexplosionandimplosionisnotonlyinsecurityandtensionbutalso anen tirelynovelperceptionofwhatmanystillcallinternationalaffairs.
*

Belldefinesthe"fivedimensionsofthepostindustrialsociety"asinvolvingthefollowing:(l)Thecreationofaserviceeconomy.(2)The preeminenceoftheprofessionalandtechnicalclass.(3)Thecentralityoftheoreticalknowledgeasthesourceofinnovationandpolicy formulationinthesociety.(4)Thepossibilityofselfsustainingtechnologicalgrowth.(5)Thecreationofanew"intellectualtechnology." (DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"inIndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonandWilbertMoore,eds., NewYork,1968,pp.15253.)

11

Lifeseemstolackcohesionasenvironmentrapidlyaltersandhumanbeingsbecomeincreasinglymanipulable andmalleable.Everythingseemsmoretransitoryandtemporary:externalreality morefluidthansolid,the humanbeingmoresyntheticthanauthentic.Evenoursensesperceiveanentirelynovel"reality"oneofour * ownmakingbutnevertheless,intermsof oursensations,quite"real." Moreimportant,thereisalready widespreadconcernaboutthepossibilityofbiologicalandchemicaltamperingwithwhathasuntilnowbeen consideredtheimmutableessenceofman.Humanconduct,someargue,canbepredeterminedandsubjectedto deliberatecontrol.Manisincreasinglyacquiringthecapacitytodetermine thesexofhischildren,toaffect throughdrugstheextentoftheirintelligence,andtomodifyandcontroltheirpersonalities.Speakingofafuture atmostonlydecadesaway,anexperimenterinintelligencecontrolasserted,"Iforeseethetimewhenwe shall havethemeansandtherefore,inevitably,thetemptationtomanipulatethe behaviourandintellectualfunctioning ofallthepeoplethroughenvironmentalandbiochemicalmanipulationofthebrain."3 Thusitisanopenquestionwhethertechnologyandsciencewillinfactincreasetheoptionsopentothe individual.Undertheheadline"StudyTermsTechnologyaBoontoIndividualism,"4TheNewYorkTimes reportedthepreliminaryconclusionsofaHarvardprojectonthesocialsignificanceofscience.Itsparticipants werequotedasconcludingthat"mostAmericanshaveagreaterrangeofpersonalchoice,widerexperienceanda morehighlydevelopedsenseofselfworththaneverbefore."Thismaybeso,butajudgmentofthissortrests essentiallyonanintuitive andcomparativeinsightintothepresentandpaststatesofmindofAmericans.In thisconnectionawordofwarningfromanacuteobserverishighlyrelevant:"Itbehavesustoexaminecarefully thedegreeofvalidity,asmeasuredbyactual behaviour,ofthestatementthatabenefitoftechnologywillbeto increasethenumberofoptionsandalternativestheindividualcanchoose from.Inprinciple,itcouldinfact,the individualmayuseanynumberofpsychologicaldevicestoavoidthediscomfortofinformationoverload,and therebykeeptherangeofalternativestowhichherespondsmuchnarrowerthanthatwhichtechnologyin principlemakesavailabletohim."5 Inotherwords,therealquestionsarehowtheindividualwillexploitthe options,towhatextenthewillbeintellectuallyandpsychologicallypreparedtoexploitthem,andinwhatway societyasawholewillcreateafavorablesettingfortakingadvantageoftheseoptions.Theiravailabilityisnot ofitselfproofofagreatersenseoffreedomorselfworth. Insteadofacceptinghimselfasaspontaneousgiven,maninthemostadvancedsocietiesmaybecome moreconcernedwithconsciousselfanalysisaccordingtoexternal,explicitcriteria:WhatismyIQ?Whatare myaptitudes,personalitytraits,capabilities,attractions,andnegativefeatures?The"internalman" spontaneouslyacceptinghisownspontaneitywillmoreandmorebechallengedbythe"externalman" consciouslyseekinghisselfconsciousimageandthetransitionfromonetotheothermaynotbeeasy.Itwill alsogiverisetodifficultproblemsindeterminingthelegitimatescopeofsocialcontrol.The possibilityof extensivechemicalmindcontrol,thedangeroflossofindividualityinherentinextensivetransplantation,the feasibilityofmanipulatingthegeneticstructurewillcallforthesocialdefinitionofcommoncriteriaofuseand restraint.Asthepreviouslycited,writerputit,"...whilethechemicalaffectstheindividual,thepersonis significanttohimselfandtosocietyinhissocial context atwork,athome,atplay.Theconsequencesare socialconsequences.Indecidinghowtodealwithsuchalterersoftheegoandofexperience(andconsequently alterersofthepersonalityaftertheexperience),andindecidinghowtodealwiththe'changed'humanbeings,we willhavetofacenewquestionssuchas'WhoamI?''WhenamIwho?"'Whoare they inrelationtome?'"6 Moreover,manwillincreasinglybelivinginmanmadeandrapidlymanalteredenvironments.Bythe endofthiscenturyapproximatelytwothirdsofthepeopleintheadvancedcountriesillliveincities. "Urban growthhassofarbeenprimarilythebyproductofaccidentaleconomicconvenience,ofthemagneticattraction ofpopulationcenters,andoftheflightofmanyfromruralpovertyandexploitation.Ithasnotbeendeliberately designedtoimprovethequalityoflife.Theimpactof"accidental"citiesisalreadycontributingtothe depersonalizationofindividuallifeasthekinshipstructurecontractsandenduringrelationsoffriendshipbecome moredifficulttomaintain.JulianHuxleywasperhapsguiltyofonlyslightexaggerationwhenhewarnedthat "overcrowdinginanimalsleadstodistortedneuroticanddownrightpathological behaviour.Wecanbesurethat thesameistrueinprincipleofpeople.Citylifetodayisdefinitelyleadingtomassmentaldisease,togrowing vandalismandpossibleeruptionsofmassviolence." 7 Theproblemofidentityislikelytobecomplicatedbyagenerationgap,intensifiedbythedissolutionof traditionaltiesandvaluesderivedfromextendedfamilyandenduringcommunityrelationships.Thedialogue
*

Belldefinesthe"fivedimensionsofthepostindustrialsociety"asinvolvingthefollowing:(l)Thecreationofaserviceeconomy.(2)The preeminenceoftheprofessionalandtechnicalclass.(3)Thecentralityoftheoreticalknowledgeasthesourceofinnovationandpolicy formulationinthesociety.(4)Thepossibilityofselfsustainingtechnologicalgrowth.(5)Thecreationofanew"intellectualtechnology." (DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"inIndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonandWilbertMoore,eds., NewYork,1968,pp.15253.) In1900therewere10citieswithpopulationsofonemillionormorein1955thenumberhadgrownto61in1965therewereover100 citieswithpopulationsofonemillionormore.TodayinAustraliaandOceaniathreequartersofthepeopleliveincitiesin Americaand Europe(theUSSRincluded)onehalfdoinAfricaandAsiaonefifthliveincities. /G.N.Carstairs,in"WhyIsManAggressive?"(ImpactofScienceonSowty,AprilJune1968,p.90),arguesthatpopulationgrowth, crowding,andsocialoppressionallcontributetoirrationalandintensifiedaggression,experimentsonratsseemtobearthisoutobservation ofhumanbehaviorinlargecitiesseemstowarrantasimilarconclusion.ForacriducceuragainstthiscongestedconditionfromaFrench sociologist,seeJacquesEllul,The1technologicalSociety,NewYork,1965,p.321.

12

betweenthegenerationsisbecomingadialogueofthedeaf.Itnolongeroperateswithintheconservativeliberal ornationalistinternationalistframework.Thebreakdownincommunicationbetweenthegenerationssovividly evidentduringthestudentrevoltsof1968wasrootedintheirrelevanceoftheoldsymbols'tomanyyounger people.Debate impliestheacceptanceofacommonframeofreferenceandlanguagesincethesewerelacking, debatebecameincreasinglyimpossible! Thoughcurrentlytheclashisovervalueswithmanyoftheyoungrejectingthoseoftheirelders,who inturncontendthat theyounghaveevadedtheresponsibilityofarticulatingtheirs inthefuturetheclash betweengenerationswillbealsooverexpertise.Withinafewyearstherebelsinthemoreadvancedcountries whotodayhavethemostvisibilitywillbejoinedbya newgenerationmakingitsclaimtopoweringovernment andbusiness:agenerationtrainedtoreasonlogicallyasaccustomedtoexploitingelectronicaidstohuman reasoningaswehavebeentousingmachinestoincreaseourownmobilityexpressingitself inalanguagethat functionallyrelatestotheseaidsacceptingasroutinemanagerialprocessescurrentinnovationssuchas planningprogrammingbudgetingsystems(PPBS)andtheappearanceinhighbusinessechelonsof"top computerexecutives."8Asthe olderelitedefendswhatitconsidersnotonlyitsownvestedinterestsbutmore basicallyitsownwayoflife,theresultingclashcouldgenerateevenmoreintenseconceptualissues.

GlobalAbsorption
Butwhileourimmediaterealityisbeingfragmented,globalrealityincreasinglyabsorbstheindividual, involveshim,andevenoccasionallyoverwhelmshim.Communicationsare,theobvious,alreadymuch discussed,immediatecause.Thechangeswroughtbycommunicationsandcomputersmakeforan extraordinarily interwovensocietywhosemembersareincontinuousandcloseaudiovisualcontactconstantly interacting,instantlysharingthemostintensesocialexperiences,andpromptedtoincreasedpersonal involvementineventhemostdistantproblems.Thenewgenerationnolongerdefinestheworldexclusivelyon thebasisofreading,eitherofideologicallystructuredanalysesorofextensivedescriptionsitalsoexperiences andsensesitvicariouslythroughaudiovisualcommunications.Thisformofcommunicating realityisgrowing * morerapidlyespeciallyintheadvancedcountries thanthetraditionalwrittenmedium,anditprovidesthe principalsourceofnewsforthemasses(seeTables13)."By1985distancewillbenoexcusefordelayed informationfromany partoftheworldtothepowerfulurbannervecentersthatwillmarkthemajor concentrationsofthepeopleonearth."9 Globaltelephonedialingthatinthemoreadvancedstateswillinclude instantvisualcontactandaglobaltelevisionsatellitesystemthatwillenablesomestatesto"invade"private homesinothercountries*willcreateunprecedentedglobalintimacy. Thenewreality,however,willnotbethatofa"globalvillage."McLuhan'sstrikinganalogyoverlooks thepersonalstability,interpersonalintimacy,implicitlysharedvalues,andtraditionsthatwereimportant ingredientsoftheprimitivevillage.Amoreappropriateanalogyisthatofthe"globalcity"anervous,agitated, tense,andfragmentedwebofinterdependentrelations.Thatinterdependence,however,isbettercharacterizedby interactionthanbyintimacy.Instantcommunicationsarealreadycreatingsomethingakintoaglobalnervous system.Occasionalmalfunctionsofthisnervoussystembecauseofblackoutsorbreakdownswillbeallthe moreunsettling,preciselybecausethemutualconfidenceandreciprocallyreinforcingstabilitythatarecharac teristicofvillageintimacywillbeabsentfromtheprocessofthat"nervous"interaction. Man'sintensifiedinvolvementinglobal affairsisreflectedin,anddoubtlessshapedby,thechanging characterofwhathasuntilnowbeenconsideredlocalnews.Televisionhasjoinednewspapersinexpandingthe immediatehorizonsoftheviewerorreadertothepointwhere"local"increasinglymeans"national,"andglobal affairscompeteforattentiononanunprecedentedscale.Physicalandmoralimmunityto"foreign"eventscannot be
TABLEI. RADIOAND TELEVISION RECEIVERSPER1000 POPULATION ESTIMATED CIRCULATIONOFD AILY NEWSPAPERSPER1000 POPULATION SourceofTables1and2: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Tables5.18.29.2.*Statisticsfrom UNStatisticalYearbook, 1968.

UnitedStates Canada Sweden UnitedKingdom WestGermany Czechoslovakia France

*

Radios 941 452 367 289 287 259 241

1960 TV 310 219 156 211 83 58 41

Newspapers 326 222 (1962)490 514 307 236 (1962)252

Radios 1,334 602 377 300 459 269 321

1966 TV 376 286 277 254 213 167 151

Newspapers 312 212* 501 488 332 288 248*

Forexample,HermannMeyn,inhisMassenmedieninderBundesrepublikDeutschland(Berlin,1966),providesdatashowing cumulativelythatanaverageWestGermanovertheageoffifteenreadeachdayforfifteenminutes,listenedtotheradioforoneandonehalf hours,andwatchedtelevisiontoronehourandtenminutes.itisestimatedthatwithinadecadetelevisionsatelliteswillcarrysufficient powertotransmitprogramsdirectlytoreceivers,withouttheintermediaryofreceivingtransmittingstations.

13

USSR Argentina Japan Brazil Algeria India

205 167 133 70 54 5

22 21 73 18 5

172 155 396 54 28 11

329 308 251 (1964)95 (1964)129 13

81 82 192 30 (1965)13

274 9 128 465 33 (1965)15 13

TABLE2. ABSOLUTEINCREASEPER1000 POPULATIONIN RADIO, TELEVISION, AND NEWSPAPERC IRCULATION, 19601966

UnitedStates Canada Sweden UnitedKingdom WestGermany Czechoslovakia France USSR Argentina Japan Brazil Algeria India

Radios +393 +150 +10 +11 +172 +10 +80 +124 +141 +118 +25 +75 +8

TV +66 +67 +121 +43 +130 +109 +110 +59 +61 +119 +12 +8
FOR E ACH

Newspapers 14 10 +11 26 +25 +52 4 +102 27 +69 21 13 +2 OFTHE

TABLE3. APPROXIMATEUSEOF MEDIA FOUR AUDIENCEGROUPS PercentofU.S.population Mass that:

Periphera College Elites l Majority Mass Graduates (less (5060%) (20 (1025%) than1%) 40%) 5 1/2 15 2 30 10 50 25

Readanynonfictionbooks inthelastyear Readone issueamonthof Harper's,NationalRe view,etc. Readoneissueamonthof Time,Newsweek,or U.S.News Readoneissueamonthof Look,Life,orPost Readadailynewspaper Readthe NewYorkTimes Readnationalorinterna tionalnewsfirstinpaper Wantmoreforeignnewsin paper Listentoradiodaily Hearradionewsdaily Usetelevisiondaily WatchTVNews FavorTVasnewsmedium FavornewsasTVshow

5 25 70 % 10 10 60 50 80 45 60 5

10 50 80 X 20 20 70 60 75 45 35 15

45 65 90 5 30 30 85 65 65 45 20 30

70 30 95 50 50 50 ? ? ? ? ? 50

Source: TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,p.47.ThesefiguresareforthemostpartderivedfromdatainJohnRobinson, PublicInformationaboutWorldAffairs, AnnArbor,Mich.,1967.

veryeffectivelymaintainedundercircumstancesinwhichtherearebothagrowingintellectualawarenessof globalinterdependenceandtheelectronicintrusionofglobaleventsintothehome. Thisconditionalsomakesforanovelperceptionofforeignaffairs.Evenintherecentpastonelearned aboutinternationalpoliticsthroughthestudyofhistoryandgeography,aswellasbyreadingnewspapers.This contributedtoahighlystructured,evenrigid,approach,inwhichitwasconvenienttocategorizeeventsor 14

nationsinsomewhatideologicalterms.Today,however,foreignaffairsintrudeuponachildoradolescentinthe advancedcountriesintheformofdisparate,sporadic,isolatedbutinvolvingevents:catastrophesandactsof violencebothabroadandathomebecomeintermeshed,andthoughtheymayeliciteitherpositiveornegative reactions,thesearenolongerintheneatlycompartmentalizedcategoriesof"We"and"they."Televisionin particularcontributestoa"blurred,"muchmoreimpressionistic andalsoinvolvedattitudetowardworld 10 affairs. Anyonewhoteachesinternationalpoliticssensesagreatchangeintheattitudeoftheyoungalongthese lines. Suchdirectglobalintrusionandinteraction,however,doesnotmakeforbetter"understanding"ofour contemporaryaffairs.Onthecontrary,itcanbearguedthatinsomerespects"understanding"inthesenseof possessingthesubjectiveconfidencethatonecanevaluateeventsonthebasisofsomeorganizedprinciple is todaymuchmoredifficultformostpeopletoattain.Instantbutvicariousparticipationineventsevokes uncertainty,especiallyasitbecomesmoreandmoreapparentthatestablishedanalyticalcategoriesnolonger * adequatelyencompassthenewcircumstances. Thescienceexplosionthemostrapidlyexpandingaspectofourentirereality,growingmorerapidly thanpopulation,industry,andcitiesintensifies,ratherthanreduces,thesefeelingsofinsecurity.Itissimply impossiblefortheaveragecitizenandevenformenofintellecttoassimilateand.meaningfullyorganizetheflow ofknowledgeforthemselves.Ineveryscientificfieldcomplaintsaremountingthatthetorrentialoutpouringof publishedreports,scientificpapers,andscholarlyarticlesandtheproliferationofprofessionaljournalsmakeit impossibleforindividualstoavoidbecomingeithernarrowgaugedspecialistsorsuperficialgeneralists. The sharingofnewcommonperspectivesthusbecomesmoredifficultasknowledgeexpandsinaddition,traditional perspectivessuchasthoseprovidedbyprimitivemythsor,morerecently,bycertainhistoricallyconditioned ideologiescannolongerbesustained. Thethreatofintellectualfragmentation,posedbythegapbetweenthepaceintheexpansionof knowledgeandtherateofitsassimilationraisesaperplexingquestionconcerningtheprospectsformankind's intellectualunity.Ithasgenerallybeenassumedthatthemodernworld,shapedincreasinglybytheindustrialand urbanrevolutions,willbecomemorehomogeneousinitsoutlook.Thismaybeso,butitcouldbethe homogeneityofinsecurity,ofuncertainty,andofintellectualanarchy.Theresult,therefore,wouldnot necessarilybeamorestableenvironment.

2.TheAmbivalentDisseminator
TheUnitedStatesistheprincipalglobaldisseminatorofthetechnetronicrevolution.ItisAmericansocietythat iscurrentlyhavingthegreatestimpactonallothersocieties,promptingafarreachingcumulativetransformation intheiroutlookandmores.Atvariousstagesinhistorydifferentsocietieshaveservedasacatalystforchangeby stimulatingimitationandadaptationinothers.WhatintheremotepastAthensandRomeweretothe Mediterraneanworld,orChinatomuchofAsia,FrancehasmorerecentlybeentoEurope.Frenchletters,arts, andpoliticalideasexercisedamagneticattraction,andtheFrenchRevolutionwasperhapsthesinglemost powerfulstimulanttotheriseofpopulistnationalismduringthenineteenthcentury. Inspite ofitsdomestictensionsindeed,insomerespectsbecauseofthem(seePartIV)theUnited Statesistheinnovativeandcreativesocietyoftoday.Itisalsoamajordisruptiveinfluenceontheworldscene. Infactcommunism,whichmanyAmericansseeas theprincipalcauseofunrest,primarilycapitalizeson frustrationsandaspirations,whosemajorsourceistheAmericanimpactontherestoftheworld.TheUnited Statesisthefocusofglobalattention,emulation,envy,admiration,andanimosity.Noothersocietyevokes feelingsofsuchintensitynoothersociety'sinternalaffairsincludingAmerica'sracialandurbanviolence arescrutinizedwithsuchattentionnoothersociety'spoliticsarefollowedwithsuchavidinterestsomuchso thattomany foreignnationalsUnitedStatesdomesticpoliticshavebecomeanessentialextensionoftheirown noothersocietysomassivelydisseminatesitsownwayoflifeanditsvaluesbymeansofmovies,television, multimillioncopyforeigneditionsofitsnationalmagazines,orsimplybyitsproductsnoothersocietyisthe objectofsuchcontradictoryassessments.

TheAmericanImpact
Initially,theimpactofAmericaontheworldwaslargelyidealistic:Americawasassociatedwith freedom.Latertheinfluence becamemorematerialistic:Americawasseenasthelandofopportunity,crassly definedintermsofdollars.Todaysimilarmaterialadvantagescanbesoughtelsewhereatlowerpersonalrisk,
*

Toprovideonesimpleexample,forabouttwentyyearsanticommunismprovidedthegrandorganizationalprincipleformanyAmericans. HowthenfitintothatsettingeventssuchastheconfrontationbetweenMoscowandPeking,and,onceonehadbecomeaccustomedtothink ofMoscowasmore"liberal,"betweenMoscowandPrague? Itisestimated,forexample,thatNASAemployssomefifteenthousandspecialtechnical termsallofwhicharecompiledinitsown thesaurus(CTNBulletin[Centresd'etudesdesconsequencesgeneratesdesgrandestechniquesnouvelles,Paris],June1968,p.6).Itisalso estimatedthat"thenumberofbookspublishedhasaboutdoubledeverytwentyyearssince1450,andsome30millionhavebynowbeen publishedtheprojectedfigureis60millionby1980"(CyrilBlack,TheDynamicsofModernization,NewYork,1966,p.12)andthat "sciencealoneseesthepublishingof100,000journalsayear,inmorethan60languages,afiguredoublingevery15years"(GlennT. Seaborg,"UneasyWorldGainsPoweroverDestiny,"TheNewYorkTimes,January6,1969).

15

andtheassassinationsoftheKennedysandofMartinLutherKing, aswellasracialandsocialtensions,notto speakofVietnam,havesomewhattarnishedAmerica'sidentificationwithfreedom.Instead,America'sinfluence isinthefirstinstancescientificandtechnological,anditisafunctionofthescientific,technological,and * educationalleadoftheUnitedStates. Scientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentisadynamicprocess.Itdependsinthefirstinstanceonthe resourcescommittedtoit,thepersonnelavailableforit,theeducationalbasethatsupportsit, andlastbutnot leastthefreedomofscientificinnovation.InallfourrespectstheAmericanpositionisadvantageouscon temporaryAmericaspendsmoreonscienceanddevotesgreaterresourcestoresearchthananyothersociety. Inaddition,theAmericanpeopleenjoyaccesstoeducationonascalegreaterthanthatofmostother advancedsocieties.(SeeTables4and5.)Atthebeginningofthe1960stheUnitedStateshadmorethan66per centofits1519agegroupenrolledineducationalinstitutionscomparablefiguresforFranceandWestGer manywereabout31percentand20percent,respectively.ThecombinedpopulationsofFrance,Germany,Italy, andtheUnitedKingdomareequaltothatoftheUnitedStatesroughlytwohundredmillion.ButintheUnited States43percentofcollegeagepeopleareactuallyenrolled,whereasonly7to15percentareenrolledinthe fourcountries(ItalyhavingthelowfigureandFrancethehigh).TheSovietpercentagewasapproximatelyhalf thatoftheAmerican. InactualnumbersthereareclosetosevenmillioncollegestudentsintheUnitedStatesand onlyaboutoneandahalfmillioninthefourEuropeancountries.Atthemoreadvancedlevelofthe2024age bracket,theAmericanfigurewas12percentwhilethatforWestGermany,thetopWesternEuropeancountry, wasabout5percent.Forthe 519 agebracket,theAmericanandtheWesternEuropeanlevelswereroughly 11 even(about80percent),andtheSovietUniontrailedwith57percent.
TABLE4. ACCESSTO H IGHER LEVEL EDUCATIONPER100,000OFTOTALPOPULATION (1950,1965) AbsoluteIncrease 1950 UnitedStates WestGermany France 1,508
256 334 471

1965 2,840
632

19501965 +1,332 +376 +708 4669 +981 +327 +171 487 +91 +16

1,042 1,140 1,674

800

Japan
USSB Poland India Indonesia Brazil Algeria

693 473
113

8 98
52

(1963) (1963)

284

95
189

68

Asaresult,theUnitedStatespossessesapyramidofeducatedsocialtalentwhosewidebaseiscapable ofprovidingeffectivesupportto'theleadingandcreativeapex.Thisistrueeventhoughinmanyrespects Americaneducationisoftenintellectuallydeficient,especiallyincomparisonwiththemorerigorousstandards ofWesternEuropeanandJapanesesecondaryinstitutions.Nonetheless,thebroadbaseofrelativelytrained peopleenablesrapidadaptation,development,andsocialapplicationofscientificinnovationordiscovery.

*

Asasweepinggeneralization,itcanbesaidthatRomeexportedlawEngland,parliamentarypartydemocracyFrance,cultureand republicannationalismthecontemporaryUnitedStates,technologicalscientificinnovationandmassculturederivedfromhigh consumption. Accordingtoa1968congressionalreport,"CurrentspendingonresearchanddevelopmentintheUnitedStatesamountstosome$24 billionannually abouttwothirdsfinancedbytheFederalGovernmentincontrasttoamere$6billioninallofWesternEurope."The Sovietfigurehasbeenestimatedtobeinthevicinityof8billionrubles,but,Americancostsbeinghigher,onerublebuysapproximately$3 ofresearch.In1962,accordingtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD),theUnitedStateswasspending $93.70percapitaonresearchanddevelopmentBritain $33.50France$23.60andGermany$20.10.Asapercentageofgrossnational product,theUnitedStates'expenditureonresearchanddevelopmentamountedto3.1Britain'sto2.2France'sto1.5Poland'sto1.6 Germany'sto1.3andtheSovietUnion's to2.2.Thenumberofscientists,engineers,andtechniciansengagedinresearchanddevelopment totaled1,159,500intheUnitedStates211,100inBritain111,200inFrance142,200inGermany53,800inBelgiumandHollandand somewhereover1,000,000 intheSovietUnion(C.FreemanandA.Young,TheResearchandDevelopmentEffortinWesternEurope,North AmericaandtheSovietUnion,OEGD,1965,pp.7172,124.SourceforPoland:aspeechbyA.Werblan,publishedbyPolishPressAgency, October15,1968.ThePolesexpecttoreach2.5percentonlyby1975.ForahigherestimateofSovietscientificmanpower,seeScientific PolicyintheUSSR,aspecialreportbytheOECD,1969,especiallypp.64247).Onaglobalscale,theUnitedStatesaccountsforroughly onethirdoftheworld'stotalsupplyofscientificmanpower("TheScientificBrainDrainfromtheDevelopingCountriestotheUnited States,"TwentythirdReportbytheCommitteeonGovernmentOperations,HouseofBepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,March1968,p.3 hereaftercitedasReport...).

America'sscientificleadisparticularlystronginthesocalledfrontierindustriesthatinvolvethemostadvancedfieldsofscience.Ithas beenestimatedthatapproximately80percentofallscientificandtechnicaldiscoveriesmadeduringthepastfewdecadesoriginatedinthe UnitedStates.About79percentoftheworld'scomputersoperateintheUnitedStates.America'sleadinlasersisevenmoremarked.The InternationalAtomicEnergyAgencyhasestimated(initsreportPowerandResearchReactorsinMemberStates,Vienna,1969)thatby1975 theUnitedStateswillutilizemorenuclearpowerforpeacefulusesthanthenextelevenstatescombined(includingJapan,allofWestern Europe,Canada,andtheSovietUnion).

16

Whilenopreciseestimatesarepossible,
UnitedStates WestGermany France Japan USSR (1965)349 109 96 233 177 Poland India Indonesia Brazil Algeria
81

(1962)45

25

TABLE5. N UMBEROFGRADUATESFROMH IGHERLEVEL INSTITUTIONSPER100,000OFTOTALPOPULATION (1964) Source: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Table2.1,4,pp.25968. Source: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Table2.10,pp.18599.

someexpertshavesuggestedthatapresentdaysocietywouldexperiencedifficultiesinrapidmodernizationif lessthan10percentofitspopulationintheappropriateage brackethadhighereducationandlessthan30per centhadlowereducation. Moreover,boththeorganizationalstructureandtheintellectualatmosphereintheAmericanscientific worldfavourexperimentationandrapidsocialadaptation.InaspecialreportonAmericanscientificpolicies, * submittedinearly1968,agroupofexpertsconnectedwithOECD concludedthatAmerica'sscientificand technicalenterpriseisdeeplyrootedinAmericantraditionand history. Competitivenessandtheemphasison quickexploitationhaveresultedinaquickspinoffoftheenormousdefenseandspaceresearcheffortsintothe economyasawhole,incontrasttothesituationintheSovietUnion,wheretheeconomicbyproductsofalmost aslargescalearesearchefforthave sofarbeennegligible.Itisnoteworthythat"theRussiansthemselves estimatethattheproductivityoftheirresearchersisonlyabouthalftheAmericans'andthatinnovationstaketwo orthreetimesaslongtobeputintoeffect."12 Thisclimateandtheconcomitantrewardsforcreativeattainmentsresultinamagneticpull(the"brain drain")fromwhichAmericaclearlybenefits.Americaofferstomanytrainedscientists,evenfromadvanced countries,notonlygreatermaterialrewardsbutauniqueopportunityforthemaximumfulfillmentoftheir talents.InthepastWesternwritersandartistsgravitatedprimarilytowardParis.MorerecentlytheSovietUnion andChinahaveexercisedsomeideologicalattraction,butinneithercasediditinvolvethemovementof significantpercentagesofscientificelites.ThoughimmigratingscientistsinitiallythinkofAmericaasaplatform forcreativework,andnotasanationalsocietyto whichtheyaretransferringpoliticalallegiance,inmostcases thatallegianceislaterobtainedthroughassimilation.America'sprofessionalattractionfortheglobalscientific eliteiswithouthistoricprecedentineitherscaleorscope.
*

Tomeasureinnovatingperformance,OECDanalystscheckedtoseewhereonehundredandthirtynineselectedinventionswerefirstused. Nineindustrialsectorsthatdependheavilyoninnovationweresurveyed(i.e.,computers,semiconductors,pharmaceuticals,plastics,iron andsteel,machinetools,nonferrousmetals,scientificinstruments,andsyntheticfibers).Theresultsshowedthatinthelasttwentyyearsthe UnitedStateshashadthehighestrateofinnovation,sinceapproximately60percentoftheonehundredandthirtynineinventionswerefirst puttouseintheUnitedStates(15percentinGreatBritain,9percentinGermany,4percentinSwitzerland,3percentinSweden).The UnitedStatescollects5060percentofallOECDareareceiptsforpatents,licenses,etc.theUnitedStatespredominatesintrade performance,accountingforabout30percentoftheworld'sexportinresearchintensiveproductgroups(J.Richardsonand FordParks, "WhyEuropeLagsBehind," ScienceJournal, Vol.4,August1968,pp.8186). Itisstrikingtonote,forexample,thatwhileWesternEuropestillslightlyexceedstheUnitedStatesinthenumberofpatentsregistered annually,industrialapplicationofpatentsisroughlyeighttimeshigherintheUnitedStates. Americanleadershipisalsomarkedinpurescience.Inanunusuallyassertivebutnotinaccuratereport,theNationalAcademyof Sciencesstatedinlate1968thattheUnitedStatesenjoysworldleadershipinmathematics,citingasevidencethat50percentofthe prestigiousFields"Medalsawardedsince1945wenttoAmericans,thatAmericanmathematiciansplaytheleadingroleininternational mathematicscongresses(deliveringmorethan33percentofallscientificpapers),andthatAmericanmathematicalresearchiscitedmost frequentlyinforeignmathematicsjournals(TheNewYorkTimes, November24,1968). AmericanpreponderanceinNobelPrizesinPhysics,Chemistry,andMedicinehasalsobecomemoremarked.Thus,betweentheyears1901 and1939theUnitedStatesandCanadawon13prizes,whileFrance,Germany,Italy,Benelux,andtheUnitedKingdomwonatotalof82, Scandinaviawon8,theUSSRwon4,andJapanwonnone.Between1940and1967therespectivefigureswere42,50,6,8,and2. "SincethefirsthoursoftheRepublic,therightofcitizenstothe'pursuitofhappiness,'formulatedintheDeclarationofIndependence,has beenoneofthemainspringsofAmericansocietyitis.alsothefoundationofasocialpolicyinspiredbytheprospectofnewbenefitsissued fromthescientificandtechnicalenterprise.Howcanonefailtohopethatthesebenefits,whichhaveinfactcontributedsomuchtonational defenseortheraceforworldprestige,willmakeanessentialcontributiontotheachievementofothergreatnationalgoals?Itisthis propulsionwhichhasgivenscience,themotherofknowledge,theappearanceofaveritablenationalresource.Theenterpriseisindissolubly linkedtothegoalsofAmericansociety,whichistryingtobuilditsfutureontheprogressofscienceandtechnology.Inthiscapacity,this societyasawholeisaconsumerofscientificknowledge,whichisusedfordiverseends:inthelastcentury,toincreaseagriculturalpro ductivityandtofacilitateterritorialdevelopment,andthentobackthenationaldefenseeffort,tosafeguardpublichealthandtoexplore space.Theseareactivitieswhichhaveanimpactonthedestinyofthewholenation,anditseemsnaturalthatallskillsshouldbemobilizedto cooperate.InthiswayindustryandtheuniversitiesandprivateorganizationsareassociatedwiththeGovernmentproject"(conclusionofa reportpreparedbytheSecretariatoftheOECD,January1968,asquotedbyTheNewYork Times,January13,1968,p.10). InthewordsofE.Piore,vicepresidentandchiefscientistofI.B.M.,"TheUnitedStateshasbecometheintellectualcenteroftheworld thecenterofthearts,thesciences,andeconomics"("TowardstheYear2000,"Daedalus,Summer1967,p.958).Itissymptomaticthatinthe early1960s,44percentofthePakistanistudentsstudyingatinstitutionsofhighereducationinfifteenforeigncountrieswerestudyinginthe UnitedStates59percentoftheIndians32percentoftheIndonesians56percentoftheBurmese90percentoftheFilipinos64percent oftheThaisand26percentoftheCeylonese(GunnarMyrdal,AsianDrama,NewYork,1968,p.1773).In1967theUnitedStatesgranted 10,690M.D.satitsownuniversities,andadmittedinthesameyearaspermanentimmigrants3457physicians(Report...,p.3).Inthatsame year10,506scientific,engineering,andmedicalpersonnelfromthedevelopedcountriesemigratedtotheUnitedStates("TheBrainDrainof

17

ThoughthisattractionislikelytodeclineforEuropeans(particularlybecauseofAmerica'sdomesticproblems andpartiallybecauseofEurope'sownscientificadvance),thesuccessofJ.J.ServanSchreiber'sbook,The AmericanChallenge, reflectsthebasicinclinationofconcernedEuropeanstoaccepttheargument thatthe UnitedStatescomesclosesttobeingtheonlytrulymodernsocietyintermsoftheorganizationandscaleofits economicmarket,businessadministration,researchanddevelopment,andeducation.(Incontrast,thestructure ofAmericangovernment isviewedasstrikinglyantiquated.)Europeansensitivityinthisareaisconditionednot onlybyfearofawideningAmericantechnologicalleadbutverymuchbytheincreasingpresenceonthe EuropeanmarketsoflargeAmericanfirmsthatexploittheireconomicadvantagesofscaleandsuperior organizationtograduallyacquirecontrollinginterestsinkeyfrontierindustries.Thepresenceofthesefirms,the emergenceundertheiraegisofsomethingakintoanewinternationalcorporateelite,thestimulationgivenby theirpresencetotheadoptionofAmericanbusinesspracticesandtraining,thedeepeningawarenessthattheso 13 calledtechnologygapis.inrealityalsoamanagementandeducationgap allhavecontributedbothtoa positiveappraisalofAmerican"technostructure"bytheEuropeanbusinessandscientificeliteandtothedesire toadaptsomeofAmerica'sexperience. LesstangiblebutnolesspervasiveistheAmericanimpactonmassculture,youthmores,andlife styles.Thehigherthelevelofpercapitaincomeinacountry,themoreapplicableseemstheterm "Americanization."ThisindicatesthattheexternalformsofcharacteristiccontemporaryAmericanbehaviorare notsomuchculturallydeterminedastheyareanexpressionofacertainlevelofurban,technical,andeconomic development.Nonetheless,totheextentthattheseforrnswerefirstappliedinAmericaandthen"exported" abroad,theybecamesymbolicoftheAmericanimpactandoftheinnovationemulationrelationshipprevailing betweenAmericaandtherestoftheworld. WhatmakesAmericauniqueinourtimeisthatconfrontationwiththenewispartofthedailyAmerican experience.Forbetterorforworse,therestoftheworldlearnswhatisinstoreforitbyobservingwhathappens intheUnitedStates:whetheritbethelatestscientificdiscoveriesinspaceandmedicineortheelectric toothbrushinthebathroompopartorLSDairconditioningorairpollutionoldageproblemsorjuvenile delinquency.Theevidenceismoreelusiveinsuchmattersasstyle,music,values,andsocialmores,buttheretoo theterm"Americanization"obviouslyimplies aspecificsource. Similarly,foreignstudentsreturningfromAmericanuniversities havepromptedanorganizationaland intellectualrevolutionintheacademiclifeoftheircountries.ChangesintheacademiclifeofGermany,the UnitedKingdom,JapanandmorerecentlyFrance,andtoanevengreaterextentinthelessdevelopedcountries, canbetracedtotheinfluenceofAmericaneducationalinstitutions.Givendevelopmentsinmodern communications,itisonlyamatteroftimebeforestudentsatColumbiaUniversityand,say,theUniversityof Teheranwillbewatchingthesamelecturersimultaneously. ThisisallthemorelikelybecauseAmericansociety,morethananyother,"communicates"withthe 14 entireglobe. Roughlysixtyfivepercentofallworldcommunicationsoriginateinthiscountry.Moreover,the UnitedStateshasbeenmostactiveinthepromotionofaglobalcommunicationssystembymeansofsatellites, * anditispioneeringthedevelopmentofaworldwideinformationgrid. Itisexpectedthatsuchagridwillcome 15 intobeingbyabout1975. Forthefirsttimeinhistory thecumulativeknowledgeofmankindwillbemade accessibleonaglobalscaleanditwillbealmostinstantaneouslyavailableinresponsetodemand.

NewImperialism?
AllofthesefactorsmakeforanovelrelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheworld.Thereareimperial overtonestoit,andyetinitsessencetherelationshipisquitedifferentfromthetraditionalimperialstructure.To besure,thefactthatintheaftermathofWorldWarIIanumberofnationsweredirectlydependentontheUnited Statesinmattersofsecurity,politics,andeconomicscreatedasystemthatinmanyrespects,includingthatof 16 scale,superficiallyresembledtheBritish,Roman,andChineseempiresofthepast. Themorethanamillion Americantroopsstationedonsome fourhundredmajorandalmostthreethousandminorUnitedStatesmilitary basesscatteredallovertheglobe,thefortytwonationstiedtotheUnitedStatesbysecuritypacts,theAmerican militarymissionstrainingtheofficersandtroopsofmanyothernationalarmies,andtheapproximatelytwo hundredthousandUnitedStatesciviliangovernmentemployeesinforeignpostsallmakeforstrikinganalogies 17 tothegreatclassicalimperialsystems. Nevertheless,theconceptof"imperial"shieldsratherthan revealsarelationshipbetweenAmericaand theworldthatisbothmorecomplexandmoreintimate.The"imperial"aspectoftherelationshipwas,inthefirst instance,atransitoryandratherspontaneousresponsetothevacuumcreatedbyWorldWarIIandtothe subsequentfeltthreatfromcommunism.Moreover,itwasneitherformallystructurednorexplicitlylegitimized. The"empire"wasatmostaninformalsystemmarkedbythepretenseofequalityand noninterference.This madeiteasierforthe"imperial"attributestorecedeonceconditionschanged.Bythelate1960s,withafew
Scientists,EngineersandPhysiciansfromtheDevelopingCountriestotheUnitedStates,"HearingbeforeaSubcommitteeonGovernment Operations,HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,January23,1968,pp.2,96hereaftercitedasHearing...). * Itisestimated(bytheInstituteforPoliticsandPlanning,Arlington,Virginia)thatthevolumeofdigitalcommunicationwillshortlyexceed humanconversationacrosstheAtlanticithasalreadydonesointheUnitedStates.Moreover,withinthenextdecadethevalueof informationexportfromtheUnitedStatestoEuropewillexceedthevalueofmaterialexports.

18

exceptionstheearlierdirectpoliticalmilitarydependenceontheUnitedStateshaddeclined(ofteninspiteof politicaleffortsbytheUnitedStatestomaintainit).Itsplacehadbeenfilledbythemorepervasivebutless tangibleinfluenceofAmericaneconomicpresenceandinnovationastheyoriginateddirectlyfromtheUnited StatesorwerestimulatedabroadbyAmericanforeigninvestment(thelatterannuallyyieldinga product 18 considerablyinexcessofthegrossnationalproductofmostmajorcountries). Ineffect,"...American influencehasaporousandalmostinvisiblequality.Itworksthroughtheinterpenetrationofeconomic institutions,thesympatheticharmonyofpoliticalleadersandparties,thesharedconceptsofsophisticated intellectuals,thematingofbureaucraticinterests.Itis,inotherwords,somethingnewintheworld,andnotyet wellunderstood."19 ItisthenoveltyofAmerica'srelationshipwiththeworldcomplex,intimate,andporousthatthe moreorthodox,especiallyMarxist,analysesofimperialismfailtoencompass.Toseethatrelationshipmerelyas theexpressionofanimperialdriveistoignorethepartplayedinitbythecrucialdimensionofthetechnological scientificrevolution.Thatrevolutionnotonlycaptivatestheimaginationofmankind(whocanfailtobemoved bythespectacleofmanreachingthemoon?)butinescapablycompelsimitationofthemoreadvancedbytheless advancedandstimulatestheexportofnewtechniques,methods,andorganizationalskillsfromtheformertothe latter.Thereisnodoubtthatthisresultsinanasymmetricalrelationship,butthecontentofthatasymmetrymust beexaminedbeforeitiscalledimperialism.Likeeverysociety,Americanodoubtpreferstobemoreratherthan lessadvancedyetitisalsostrikingthatnoothercountryhasmadesogreataneffort,governmentallyand privately,throughbusinessandespeciallythroughfoundations,toexportitsknowhow,tomakepublicitsspace findings,topromotenewagriculturaltechniques,toimproveeducationalfacilities,tocontrolpopulationgrowth, 20 toimprovehealthcare,andsoon.Allofthishasimperialovertones,andyetitismisleadingtolabelitassuch. Indeed,unabletounderstandfullywhatishappeninginthenownsociety,Americansfinditdifficultto comprehendtheglobalimpactthatthatsocietyhashadinitsuniqueroleasdisseminatorofthetechnetronic revolution.Thisimpactiscontradictory:itbothpromotesandunderminesAmericaninterestsasdefinedby Americanpolicymakersithelpstoadvancethecauseofcooperationonalargerscaleevenasitdisruptsexisting socialoreconomicfabricsitbothlaysthegroundworkforwellbeingandstabilityandenhancestheforces workingforinstabilityandrevolution.Unliketraditionalimperialisticpowers,whichreliedheavilyonthe principleof divideetimpera(practicedwithstrikingsimilaritybytheBritishinIndiaandmorerecentlybythe RussiansinEasternEurope),AmericahasstriventopromoteregionalismbothinEuropeandinLatinAmerica. Yetinsodoing,itishelpingtocreatelargerentitiesthataremorecapableofresistingitsinfluenceandof competingwithiteconomically.Implicitlyandoftenexplicitly modelledontheAmericanpattern,modernization makesforpotentiallygreatereconomicwellbeing,butintheprocessitdisruptsexistinginstitutions,undermines prevailingmores,andstimulatesresentmentthatfocusesdirectlyonthesourceofchangeAmerica.Theresult isanacutetensionbetweenthekindofglobalstabilityandorderthatAmericasubjectivelyseeksandthe instability,impatience,andfrustrationthatAmericaunconsciouslypromotes. TheUnitedStateshasemergedasthefirstglobalsocietyinhistory.Itisasocietyincreasinglydifficult todelineateinterms ofitsouterCulturalandeconomicboundaries.Moreover,itisunlikelythatinthe foreseeablefutureAmericawillceasetoexercisetheinnovativestimulusthatischaracteristicofitscurrent relationshipwiththeworld.Bytheendofthiscentury(extrapolatingfromcurrenttrends)onlysomethirteen 21 countriesarelikelytoreachthe1965levelofthepercapitagrossnationalproductoftheUnitedStates. Unless thereismajorscientificandeconomicstagnationorapoliticalcrisis(seePartIV),attheendofthecentury Americawillstillbeasignificantforceforglobalchange,whetherornotthedominantsubjectivemoodispro orantiAmerican.

3.GlobalGhettos
TheThird"Worldisavictimofthetechnetronicrevolution.Whetherthelessdevelopedcountriesgrow rapidlyorslowly,ornotatall,almostinevitablymanyofthemwillcontinuetobe''dominatedbyintensifying feelingsofpsychologicaldeprivation.Inaworldelectronicallyintermeshed,absoluteorrelativeunder developmentwillbeintolerable,especiallyasthemoreadvancedcountriesbegintomovebeyondthatindustrial eraintowhichthelessdevelopedcountrieshaveasyettoenter.Itisthus nolongeramatterofthe"revolutionof risingexpectations."TheThirdWorldtodayconfrontsthespecterofinsatiableaspirations. Atonetimeinhistoryseeminglyinsolubleproblemspromptedfatalismbecausetheywerethoughttobe partofauniversalcondition.Todaysimilarproblemsstimulatefrustrationbecausetheyareseenasaparticular phenomenonbywhichothers,morefortunate,arenotafflicted.TheplightoftheurbanghettosintheUnited Statesprovidesanappropriateanalogytotheglobalpositionofthelessdevelopedcountries,particularlyin * AfricaandAsia.Theirproblemisnot thatoftheabsenceofchange. Insomecasesitisnoteventhatof
*

"ThegrowthrateofthesecountriesduringtheDevelopmentDecadehasnotreachedtheannualfigureof5percentwhichwassetasthe minimumtarget.Actuallytheaveragerateforfiftyfourcountries,representing87percentofthepopulationofthedevelopingworldasa whole,wasonly4.5percentperannumfromi960to1965....Amongthefiftyfourcountriesmentioned,thereisa groupofeighteenwith anaveragegrowthrateof7.3percentperannum,whiletherateforfifteencountrieswasscarcely2.7percentperannum....Betweenthese twoextremesthereweretwentyonecountrieswhoseaveragegrowthratewas4.9percent"("TowardsaGlobalStrategyofDevelopment,"a reportbytheSecretaryGeneraloftheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,NewYork,1968,p.5).

19

insufficientlyrapidchange,becauseinrecentyearsseveralunderdevelopedcountrieshaveattainedimpressive andsustainedratesofgrowth(SouthKorea,Taiwan,andGhana,forexample).Rather,theirproblemarisesfrom anintensifyingfeelingofrelativedeprivationofwhichtheyaremademoreacutelyawarebythespreadof educationandcommunications.Asaresult,passiveresignationmaygivewaytoactiveexplosionsofundirected anger.

ProspectsforChange
Itisextremelydifficulttopredicttheeconomicandpoliticaldevelopmentoftheunderdeveloped countries.Some ofthem,especiallyinLatinAmerica,maymakerespectableprogressandmay,withinthenext twodecades,reachtheeconomiclevelsofthecurrentlymoreadvancedstates.Islandsofdevelopmentmay increasinglydotthemapsofAsiaandAfrica,assumingthatthereisrelativepeaceandpoliticalstabilityinthe regionasawhole.Buttheoverallprognosisisnothopeful.Mediumprojectionsforseveralofthemore importantunderdevelopedcountriespointto apercapitaannualgrossnationalproductin1985of$107forNi geria,$134forPakistan,$112forIndonesia,$169forIndia,$185forChina,$295fortheUnitedArabRepublic, and$372forBrazil.(Bywayofcontrast,theprospectivepercapitafigurefor1985fortheUnitedStatesis 22 $6510,forJapan$3080,fortheUSSR$2660,andforIsrael$2978.) Whatisevenmorestrikingisthatwhile thepercapitaGNPintheaboveadvancedcountriesislikelytodoubleduringtheyears19651985,forasingle NigerianthepercapitaGNPwillhaveincreasedbyonly$14,foraPakistaniby$43,foranIndonesianby$12, foranIndianby$70,foraChineseby$88,foranEgyptianby$129,andforaBrazilianby$92duringthesame twodecadesofdevelopment. Thethreatofoverpopulationtoeconomicgrowthindeedtoexistenceitselfhasbeenwidelydiscussed inrecentyears.Thatthreat,itshouldbeadded,involvesacrucialsocialpoliticaldimension.Overpopulation contributestothebreakupoflandholdingsandtherebyfurtherstratifiesandcomplicatestheruralclass structure,wideningdisparitiesandintensifyingclassconflicts.Staggeringproblemsofunemploymentarealso highlyprobable.AccordingtotheInternationalLabourOrganization,by1980thelabourforceofAsia's developingnationswillhaveincreasedfrom663millionto938million.Duringthissameperiodthenumberof 23 newjobsinthesecountrieswillincreasebyonly142million,accordingtoprojectionsofcurrentgrowthrates. Evenif itisassumedthattheproblemofoverpopulationwillbemetbygreateracceptanceofbirth control,theeconomicpictureintermsof thepercapitaGNPforunderdevelopedcountriesbecomesonly marginallybrighterwhenitiscomparedwiththefiguresprojectedforthemoreadvancedsocieties.Forexample, intheunlikelyeventthatby1985Indonesia'spopulationwillnothaveincreasedsince1965,itspercapitaGNP willbeapproximately$200insteadoftheprojected$112undersimilarcircumstances,forPakistanitwillbe $250insteadoftheprojected$134,andfortheUnitedArabRepublicalmost$500insteadof$295.Sincesome populationgrowthisunavoidable,theabovefiguresactuallyrepresentunattainablelevels,eventhoughtheyare inthemselvessingularlyunimpressivewhencomparedwiththefiguresforthemoreadvancedportionsofthe world. Topointtothesefiguresisnottoexcludetheprobabilitythatprogresswillbemadeinsomefields.Itis probablytruethat"thepictureoftheworldin1985,despitethelargepocketsofpovertythatwillstillexist,isfar fromgrim.Indeed,by1985massstarvation,masshomelessness,andtherampantspreadofdiseasesthathave historicallydecimatedentirepopulationswillbegenerallyeliminated.Althoughtheunderdevelopedcountries willstillbecomparativelypoor,theywillhavegreaterandmoreimmediateaccesstoworldwidetransportation andcommunicationssystemsandtotheprovisionofdrugs,medicalcare,food,shelterandclothingthrough internationalassistanceintheeventofdisaster.ThesurpluscommodityproductionoftheUnitedStateswillbe animportantelementinthefeedingofunderprivilegednations."24Onemayassumethattheappearanceof greaterinternationalplanningintermsofinternationalcommodityagreements,transportarrangements,health regulations,finance,andeducationwillmakeformoreorderlyanddeliberateapproachestotheproblemsposed bybackwardness,slowgrowth,andthewideningdisparityinstandardsofliving.Theincreasing communicationsintimacywillpermitinstantresponsestosuddenemergenciesandallowforcontinuouslong distancevisualconsultationsbyspecialists.Intheeventofneed,aidcouldbemobilizedandferriedacrossthe globeinnomoretimethanisnowneededtorespondtoaninternalnationalcalamityorevenanurbanone. TheagriculturalrevolutioninAsiaisalreadychallengingtherecentlyfashionablepredictionsofmass hungerandstarvation.Masseducationalcampaignsandtheintroductionofnewcerealsandfertilizershave promptedanimpressiveupsurgeinproductivity.WithinthenextfewyearsPakistan,thePhilippines,andTurkey maybecomegrainexportingstatesThailandandBurmaalreadyhave.Thecumulativeeffectofsuchsuccesses maywellbeto"bolstertheconfidenceofnationalleadersintheirabilitytohandleotherseeminglyinsoluble problems.Itmayalsostrengthenthefaithinmoderntechnologyanditspotentialforimprovingthewellbeingof theirpeople."25 Yetevenallowingforthesemorehopefuldevelopments,thefactremainsthatthoughthematerial conditionsoflifeintheThirdWorldareinsomerespectsimproving,theseimprovementscannotkeeppacewith thefactorsthatmake forpsychicchange.Thebasicrevolutionarychangeisbeingbroughtaboutbyeducation andcommunications.Thatchange,necessaryanddesirabletostimulateanattitudereceptivetoinnovation(for example,theacceptancebypeasantsoffertilizers),alsopromptsanintenseawarenessofinadequacyand 20

backwardness. Inthisregard,acomparisonofthecontemporarysocioeconomictransformationoftheThirdWorld withthatofRussiaatabouttheturnofthecenturyisrevealing.InRussiathe industrialrevolutionoutpacedmass * educationliteracyfollowedratherthanprecededmaterialchange. Therevolutionarymovements, particularlytheMarxistone,strovetoclosethegapbypoliticallyeducatinghenceradicalizingthemasses. Todayinthe ThirdWorldasubjectiverevolutionisprecedingchangeintheobjectiveenvironmentandcreating astateofunrest,uneasiness,anger,anguish,andoutrage.Indeed,ithasbeenobservedthat"thefasterthe enlightenmentofthepopulation,themorefrequenttheoverthrowofthegovernment." Thisgapbetweenawakeningmassconsciousnessandmaterialrealityappearstobewidening.Inthe years19581965theincomepercapitaofanIndianrosefrom$64to$86 andthatofanIndonesianfrom$81to 26 $85the incomeofanAlgeriandeclinedfrom$236to$195 Thepercentageoftheeconomicallyactive populationinfieldsotherthanagriculturegrewsubstantiallyonlyinAlgeria(from10percentto18percent). Housing,physiciansperthousandinhabitants,andpersonalconsumptiondidnotshowsignificantadvancesfor 27 themajorbackwardareas.Insometheyevenshowedadecrease. (SeeTable6.)

TheSubjectiveTransformation
Althoughobjectiveconditionschangedslowly,thesubjectiveenvironmentalteredrapidly.Spectacular advancescameprimarilyintwofields:communicationsandeducation.ThenumberofradiosinIndia quadrupledbetween1958and1966(from1.5millionto6.4million)elsewhereintheThirdWorldthefigures havedoubledortripled.Thetelevisionageisonlybeginningintheseregions,butbothtransistorradiosand televisionwillnodoubtbecomegenerallyavailablethereinthenexttwodecades. Accesstohighereducationhasalsogrownrapidly:inIndiabetween1958and1963theincreasewas roughly50percent(from900,000to1.3millionstudents),andby1968therewereabout1.9millionstudentsin 2749collegesand80universitiesinIndonesiatheincreasewas30percent(from50,000to65,000)between 1958and1964andintheUnitedArabRepublicitwasmorethan50percent(83,000to145,000)duringthe samehalfdecade.EnrollmentinIndia'sprimaryschoolsjumpedfrom18.5millionin1951to51.5millionin 1966,accordingtoUNESCOstatistics.(SeeTable7.) Increasedaccesstoeducationgivesrisetoitsownspecificproblems.Onthe onehand,accessto advancedtraining,particularlyofatechnicalnature,istoolimitedtosustainextensiveandintensive ** modernization. TheThirdWorldisstillwoefullybackwardinintermediatetechnicaleducation.Ontheother hand,thecapacityofmanyofthelessdevelopedcountriestoabsorbtrainedpersonnelisinadequatetheresultis aclassofdissatisfiedcollegegraduates,composedespecially ofthosefromthelegalandliberalartsfaculties, whoareunabletoobtaingainfulemploymentcompatiblewiththeirexpandedexpectations.Althoughthisprob 28 lemisalreadyacuteinseveralcountries, itcouldbemadeworsebytheintroductionofautomationintothe overmannedfactoriesandbureaucraciesofthelessdevelopedcountries.
*

Between1887and1904,Russiancoalminingoutputroseby400percent(from5millionto21.5milliontons)andironsmeltingby500 percentbetween1861and1870,5833milesofrailwaywereconstructed,andbetween1891and1900,13,920miles."Coalproductionin Russiarose40percentintheperiod19091913,asagainstagrowthrateof24percentintheUnitedStates,28percent!inGermany,7percent inBritain,and9percentinFranceinthesameperiod.Inthecaseofpigiron,Russianoutputroseby61percentintheperiod19091913, whiletherateofincreaseintheUnitedStateswas 20percent,inGermany33percent,inBritain8percent,andinFrance46percent. AlthoughtheeconomicbackwardnessofRussiahadnotdisappearedontheeveofthewar,itwasclearlydisappearing.Thestandardofliving wasnothigh,butitwasrising.InthetwentyyearsprecedingthewarthepopulationofRussiaincreasedbyabout40'percent,whilethe domesticconsumptionofgoodsmorethandoubled"(S.Pushkarev,TheEmergenceofModernRussia18011917,NewYork,1963,p.280). YetontheeveofWorldWarItherewereonly117,000studentsinhighereducationinacountryofsome160millionpeople,and56percent ofthepeoplewereilliterate(Pushkarev,pp.286,292).Ofthechildreninthe811agebracket,49percentwerenotreceivinganyeducation, whilethepercentageofliteratesamongmilitaryinducteesrosebetween1874and1913atarateofonlyslightlymorethanonepercentper annum(A.G.Rashin,FormirovanieRabochegoKlassaRossii,Moscow,1958,p.582). "For66nations,forexample,thecorrelationbetweentheproportionofchildreninprimaryschoolsandthefrequencyofrevolutionwas .84.Incontrast,for70nationsthecorrelationbetweentherateofchangeinprimaryenrollmentandpoliticalinstabilitywas.61"(SamuelP. Huntington,PoliticalOrderinChangingSocieties,NewHavenandLondon,1968,p.47). Itshouldbenotedthattheseareaveragefigures."Asurveyfor196566indicatedthathalfofIndia'spopulationwaslivingonR14.6orless permonth(about10cinU.S.currencyperday)....Inshorttheverylowaverageincomedoesnotbegintoplumbthedepthsofmiseryin India"(Myrdal,p.565). TheChairmanoftheIndianAtomicEnergyCommissionestimatedthatcommunitytelevisionforallthefivehundredandsixtythousand villagesinIndiacouldbetransmittedbysatelliteinfiveyearsatacostofonly$200million(TheNewYorkTimes,August15,1968).In September1969theUnitedStatesconcludedanagreementwithIndiaforthecreationby1972ofasatellitethatwillprovidetelevision programsonagricultureandbirthcontrolforapproximatelyfivethousandvillagesinfourHindispeakingstates(seealsoourearlier discussionoftheAmericanimpact). ** Seethetablesonpage27,aswellasthemoreextensivecomparisonsbetweentheThirdWorldandtheUnitedStatesandWesternEurope (bothcurrentfiguresandprojectionsfortheyear2000)containedinHigherEducation,CommitteeonHigherEducation,London,1963, especiallyAppendixesIandV. +"AsthescientificprocessingofinformationwillbeunderwayintheurbancentersofAsia,AfricaandLatinAmericaby1985,large numbersofclerks,runners,sorters,andfilersthattodayaccountfortheweightofpublicandprivatebureaucracyinIndia,NigeriaorBrazil willbegintobethreatenedwithdisplacementandtheinsecuritiesofunemployment"(TheUnitedStatesandtheWorldinthe1985Era, p. 91).Itisestimatedthatby1970roughlyonehalfofCeylon'sexpectedonemillionunemployedwillhavecertificatesofhighereducation ("TheInternationalReport,"TheEconomist, June15,1968, p.47).

21

TABLE6 PERAPITA GNPINU.S.DOLLARS 1958 UnitedStates 2,602 WestGermany 1,077 France Italy SovietUnion Poland Czechoslovakia Japan India Indonesia UnitedArab Republic Brazil 344 72 84 1,301 598 1,100 800 1966 3,842 2,004 2,052 1,182 PER CENT OF POPULATION EMPLOYED OUTSIDE ACRICULTURE Increase Increase (inpercentages) 1950 1960 (inpercentages) 48 90.4 935 3i 86 742 86.6(1961) 12.4 58 98 72.5(1954) 80.2(1962) 77 60.5(1951) 71.8(1962) 11.3 52.0 42.8 61.4 60.8 (1959) 46.6 8.8 38

1,500 36 (1965) l,10O 38 (1905) I 986 105 187 46

80.5,(1965) 191

74.0 27.0(1951) 27.1(1961) 0.1 32.0(1961)

95 13 (1963) 179' 49 (1965) 333 7

120 310

373(1947) 433 519 48.4

0.6 35

PER CENTOF POPULATIONIN LOCALITIES NUMBEROVER 20,000INHABITANTS Increase 1950 1960 (inpercentages) UnitedStates 41.4 46.9 55 WestGermany 4i5 47.6 6.1 France 333 (1954) Italy 41.2 ' (1950 SovietUnion 355 (1959) Poland 255 319 6.4 Czechoslovakia 21.0 253 (1947) (1961) Japan 72.0 India Indonesia UnitedArab Republic Brazil 12.0 (1951) 91 (1955) 29.1 29.1 (1947) (1955) 20.1 28.1 43

AVERAGEOFPERSONS
PERROOM

1950 0.7 1.0 (1954) 13(1951) 15

1960 0.7 0.9 1.0 (1962) (1961) 15(1956) 17(1961) 13 (i960 1.2 (1963) 2.6

Increase (inpercentages) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2

0.0 8.0

13

1.6 13

0.0

TABLE7 NUMBEROFSTUDENTSIN INSTITUTIONSOFHIGHER LEARNING Increase (inper NUMBEROFRADIOS Increase (inper 22

United States West Germany France Italy Soviet Union Poland Czechoslova kia Japan India Indonesia

1958 3,042,20 0 173,320

1965 centages) 5,526,32 81.6 5 372,929 115

186,101 509,764 174 216,248 2,178,90 0 111,820 48,805 300,940 39 3,860,50 77 0 251,864 125 141,687 190

1958 1966 centages) 161,000,0 262,700,00 63 00 0 15,263,00 27,400,000 79 0 10,646,00 15,861,000 49 0 6,112,000 11,163,000 83 36,667,00 76,800,000 109 0 4,465,000 5,593,ooo 25 3,317,000 3,829,000 15 14,610,00 24,787,000 70 0 1,560,000 6,485,000 316 631,000 1,250,000 98

566,551 1,116,43 97 0 913,380 1,310,00 43 0(1963) 49,557 65,635 32 (1964) 177,123 113 155,781 79

UnitedArab Republic 83,251 Brazil 86,868

792,000 1,613,000 104 (1965) 4,000,000 7,500,000 88 (1964)

NUMBEROF TELEVISIONRECEIVERS

United States West Germany France Italy J Soviet Union

1958 50,250,000 2,125,000 989,000 1,098,000 1,767,000

NUMBEROF TELEPHONES Increase Increase(in (inper per 1966 centages) 1958 1966 centages) 74,100,000 47 66,630,00 98,789,000 48 0 12,720,000 499 5,090,102 9,532,417 87 7,471,000 6,855,000 655 524 3,703,578 6,554,441 77 2,988,465 6,467,597 116 4.459,ooo 88 2,370,000 (1965) '446,236 1,411,481 216 789,679 1,582,852 100 4,334,602 16,011,745 269 367,000 926,617 153 90,968 185,452 116,332 335,000 28 81

19,000,000 975

Poland Czechoslova kia Japan India

85,000 328,000 1,600,000 400(1962)

2,540,000 2,375,ooo

2888 624

19,002,000 1088 4,000 900 193

Indonesia 4,600 UnitedArab Republic 128,000 375,000 (1962) Brazil 700,000 2,500,000 SourcesforTables6and7: UNStatistical Yearbooks,

257 928,117 1,431.653 54 19601967 UNESCO Yearbook, 1967.

Theproblem,isaggravatedbythefrequentlylowlevelofwhatisofficiallydescribedashighereducation. Accordingtooneadmittedlyimpressionisticbutperceptiveaccount,"Atagenerousestimate,perhaps5percent of themassofIndianstudentsininstitutionsofhighereducationarereceivingdecenttrainingbyrecognizable worldstandards....Inmostplacesacademicstandardshavefallensolowthattheycanhardlybesaidtohave 29 survived." ThisconditionisbynomeanslimitedtoIndia."TeachinginSouthAsianschoolsatalllevelstends todiscourageindependentthinkingandthegrowthofthatinquisitiveandexperimentalbentofmindthatisso essentialfordevelopment....TheSouthAsianpeoplesarenotmerelybeinginsufficientlyeducatedtheyare 30 being miseducatedonahugescale." SimilarlyinLatinAmerica:,"Bynowitisfullyrecognizedthateducation 23

inLatinAmericahasfundamentalshortcomings,thatthereisahighilliteracyrate,andthattheeducational systembearsnorelationtotherequirementsofeconomicdevelopment,quiteapartfromtheseriousdeficiencies 31 thatexistinotherbasicculturalrespects" "Education"ofthissortcontributestotheemergenceofan inadequatelytrainedclassofyoungerpeoplewhosefrustrations,increasingradicalism,andsusceptibilityto Utopianappealshavemanyparallelsinthoseofthenineteenthcenturyintelligentsiaofthemorebackward regionsofEurope,particularlyRussiaandtheBalkans. To obtainqualityeducation,asmallpercentageofthestudentseitherbecausetheyareunusually giftedandcanobtainscholarships,orbecausetheycomefromwealthyfamiliesgoabroad.Asaresult,theyare temptedtoadapttoforeignstylesandmodesof life,andeventoremainabroadineffect,theyoptoutoftheir ownsocietyeitherbyemigratinginternallyontheirreturn,orsimplybyneverreturning.In1967,forexample, 26percentoftheChinesestudentsstudyingsciencesandengineeringinthe UnitedStateschosenottoreturnto 32 TaiwanforIndiathepercentagewas21,andforKoreaandPakistanitwas15and13,respectively. Itisa staggeringfactthattheunderdevelopedcountriessuppliedalmostexactlyonehalfofthetotalnumberof engineers,scientists,andmedicalpersonnelwhoemigratedtothe 33 UnitedStatesintheyearendingJune1967:10,254outof 20,760. Itisexpectedthatthisproportion 34 willactuallyriseintheyearstoCome. Atthesametime,manyofthosewhodoreturntotheirnativelandsdo soafterhavingbecome"immersedinvaluesandaneducationalsystemwhichpreparesindividualstofitinan advancedcountryandmayunfitthemfordevelopinganappropriatepersonalityforanactivelifeintheirown community."35 Thecumulativeeffectofthesefactorsmakesforahighlyturbulentandextremelyamorphouspolitical pattern.WithoutallowingforspecificdifferencesamongThirdWorldcountries,itcanbesaidingeneralterms thatthepoliticalpyramidinthe lessdevelopedcountrieshasatitsbasethepeasantmasses,stillprimarily * engagedinmanual labourandlargelyilliterate butnolongerparochially restrictedtotheirimmediate environment,sincetransistorradiosestablishintimatecontactwiththe nationalsocietyandhelpdevelop awarenessoftheirmaterialornationaldeprivation nextinorderisarapidlyincreasingurbanpopulation, composedtoalargeextentoffirstgenerationpostpeasantcitydwellerssearchingfornewsourcesof 38 authority thencomesapseudointelligentsia,whichaccountsforroughlytwotothreepercentofthe populationandiscomposedofrelativelyyoungpeoplewhoduringthelastdecadehaveacquiredsomeformal advancededucationoftenofverypoorprofessionalqualityandwho,becausetheylivebadlyandfeelthat societydoesnotofferthemtheopportunitytowhichtheyareentitled,arehighlysusceptibletomilitant xenophobiccausesatthetopofthepyramidisarelativelywelleducatedbutnarrowgaugedeliteclass,strug glingtoachievebothstabilityandprogress(Iran),orsometimestodelayorpreventreforms(someLatin Americancountries),because,asaBrazilianscholarputit,they"wantitthatway.Inordertomaintaintheir 37 privileges,theyaredependentontheperpetuationofthestatusquo." Theseprivilegesareeitherthoseof propertyor,morefrequentlyinthecaseofthenewnations,ofbureaucraticposition. Theghettosoftheglobalcityhave,accordingly,someparallelstotheracialslumsoftheUnitedStates. InAmericancitiestheproblemisnottheabsenceofdevelopmentorchangeitstemsfromtheperceptionbythe poorthatevenrapidchangewillnotchangemuchformanyinthenearfuture,andfromtheirgrowingrealization thatthosewhoarericherarethemselvesbecomingmorallyuneasyoverthematerialgap.Thiscombinationof factorscreatesasenseofacutedeprivationthatresultsinintensifiedpoliticalhostilitytowardtheoutside 38 world. ThemobilizationofthathostilityintheUnitedStateswasmadepossiblebytheincreaseinthenumber ofblackAmericansreceivinghighereducationandthereforecapableofprovidingonasociallysignificantscale theenergizingleadershipfortheexpressionofhithertosuppressedgrievances.Anotherfactorwastherapid growthinthenumberofblackAmericanslivingincities andthereforereleasedfromthelethargyoftraditional, whftedominatedruralexistenceandbroughtintodirectcontactwiththewhitecommunity,which,although essentiallyconservative,hasbecomeincreasinglyambivalentinitsvalues.Withinthiscontext,attemptsat reformcontributedtofurthertensionandfriction,promptingsome,inthedominantcommunity,toadopta
*

Asof1960,approximately70percentofthemalesover15and90percentofthefemalesover15inPakistanwereilliterateinIndiathe percentageswere60percentand85percent,respectivelyinIndonesia40percentand70percentandinBurma20percentand60per cent.InLatinAmericain1960,35.6percentofthemalesand42.6percentofthefemalesinBrazilwereilliterate inArgentina7.5percent and9.7percentinChile15.1percentand17.6percentinPeru25.6percentand52.4percentandinVenezuela30.2percentand38.3 percent(Myrdal,pp.540,1672UNStatisticalYearbook,1965). Itisthereforetoolatetosuggestthatsinceparticipationisrunningaheadoftheeffectiveinstitutionalizationofpoliticalprocesses,itmight bedesirable inordertopreventchaostoeitherlimitordelayprogramsthatstimulatehigherlevelsofparticipationforinstance,by slowingdowndrivesagainstilliteracysothatliteracydoesnotoutpaceeconomicandpoliticaldevelopment.Evenifthelatterwere practicable,thedisseminationoftransistorradios(andsoontelevision)isbeginningtohavethesamepoliticallyactivizingeffectthat literacyhadontheurbanproletariatofthelatenineteenthcentury.Thus,FrantzFanohquitecorrectlyobservedinhisStudiesinaDying Colonialism(NewYork,1965)that"since1956thepurchaseofaradioinAlgeriahasmeant,nottheadoptionofamoderntechniqueforget tingnews,buttheobtainingofaccesstotheonlymeansofenteringintocommunicationwiththeRevolution,oflivingwithit"(p.83). CitieswithpopulationsofoverahundredthousandhavebeenincreasinginAsiaataratethreetimesthatofthegeneralpopulationgrowth ofthecountriesconcerned(Myrdal,p.469). TheproportionofallNegroeslivingintheNorthandWestalmostquadrupledfrom1910to1960,when73percentofallNegroesresided inurbanareasandthusrepresentedamoreurbanizedpopulationthanthewhites,only70percentofwhomresidedinurbanareas(PhilipM. Hauser,"DemographicFactorsintheIntegrationoftheNegro,"inTheNegroAmerican,TalcottParsonsandKenneth B.Clark,eds.,Boston, 1965,pp.7475).

24

reactionarypostureagainst change,andothers,especiallyamongthedeprived,toarguethatnochangewas meaningfulwithintheframeworkoftheexisting"system. Americanracialslumshavegrowninapatternnotunliketheexpansionofthehugeimpoverishedurban centersofAsia.BlacksfromtheSouthhavetendedtomovetonortherncitiesmoreinreactiontotheirpoverty andfeltinjusticethanbecauseoftheactualemploymentavailablethere.Therateof,unemploymentinlarge Americancitiesisseveraltimesmorethanthenationalaverage.InAsia,citiesinhabitedbyimpoverishedand unproductivemasseshavegrownrapidlyinrecentyearsnotbecauseofemploymentopportunitiesbutbecauseof ruralpovertyandinsecurity."Insteadofstandingasasymptomofgrowth,asitwasintheWest,urbanizationin SouthAsiaisanaspectofcontinuedpoverty."39 TheparallelbetweentheghettosoftheglobalcityandtheracialslumsoftheUnitedStatescanbe extendedtotheproblemsfacedbytheintellectualpoliticaleliteoftheThirdWorld.IntheUnitedStates "integration"hassofartended tomeantheselectiveassimilationofafewindividualswhocanconformtothe prevailingnormsofthedominantcommunityhowever,theirassimilationalsomeans,thelossoftalentand expertisetotheblackcommunity,inwhichthelesseducated'moremilitant"pseudointelligentsia"increasingly providescharismaticleadershiptothemassesbyexploitingreverseracism.Inlikemanner,theestablishedsocial elitesoftheThirdWorldhave tendedtoemulate thelifestylesofthemoreadvancedworld,andtoemigrateinto iteitherdirectlyorvicariously.

ThePoliticalVacuum
Theresultingvacuumisfilledbyanindigenouspseudointelligentsia,whoseviewsareinfluencedbydoctrines advocatedbyFrantzFanon,RegisDebray,CheGuevara,andothers.NineteenthcenturyEuropeanMarxism, originallyaddressedtoanurbanproletariatonlyrecentlydivorcedfromrurallife,isromanticallyadaptedtothe conditionsofindustriallybackwardtwentiethcenturyglobalghettos."Therevolutionaryintellectualisa virtuallyuniversalphenomenoninmodernizingsocieties.'Nooneisasinclinedtofosterviolenceasa disgruntledintellectual,atleastwithintheIndiancontext,'HoselitzandWeinerhaveobserved.'Itisthese personswhocomposethecadresofthelessresponsiblepoliticalparties,whomakeupthenarrowerentourageof demagoguesandwhobecomeleadersofmillenarianandmessianicmovements,allofwhichmay,whenthe opportunityis ripe,threatenpoliticalstability.'InIranextremistsofboththeleftandtherightweremorelikely 40 thanmoderatestobeproductsofthecity,tocomefromthemiddleeconomicstrata,andtobebettereducated." Giventhisemotionalcontext,external aid,designedtoovercomethespecificconditionof backwardnessandpoverty,becomesanadditionalpointoffriction,andevenwhenithelpstoimprovethe objectivesituationstimulatesfurthersubjectivetension.IntheurbanghettosoftheUnitedStates, governmentalandprivateaidprogramsadministeredbywhiteshavebeenresentedbytheblackswhen administeredbytheblacks,however,theyhaveoftenbecometargetsofwhitechargesthatfundsdesignedfor specificdevelopmentprogramshavebeenusedtoadvanceblackmilitancy.Ontheglobalscale,"neo colonialism"hasbeentheformulausedtostimulatesuspicionbythemassesofthepoliticalmotivesofeconomic * aidfromtheadvancedcountries graft,corruption,andinefficiencyhavebeenthe chargesmadebydonor countriesagainsttherecipientsofeconomicassistance. Theshifttowardeconomicassistanceonaninternationalbasisisaresponsetothisdangeratleastin part.Itposesanotherdanger,however.Aidcanatbestbeonlyapartialresponsetoaconditionthat has profoundlypsychologicalaswellasmaterialroots.Economicassistancecanbeeffectiveonlyif,inaddition,the recipientcountry'semotionalresourcesaremobilizedandasenseofpopularenthusiasmandpurposeiscreated. Thisrequiresnativeleadershipthatknowsbothhowtostirthemassesandhowtoutilizeforeignaid intelligently.Suchleadershipisrarewhereitdoesexistitfrequentlytendstobeunresponsivetoforeignin terestsandadvice,andthusstimulatesforeignresentment.ThedifficultiesfacedbytheUnitedStatesindealing withNasserorAyubKhan,whowerenotonlypromotingbutalsorespondingtotheemotionalismoftheirown masses,arecasesinpoint. Moreover,evenifthoseinauthorityare determinedtopromotesocialchange,theyarefacedwiththe intractablefactthattheirrealitycanbechangedonlyverygradually,whilepopularmobilizationonbehalfof changecanbeattainedonlybystimulatingmassenthusiasm andemotion.Therulers thusconfrontadilemma. Toadmittherealityoftheslownessofchangeistodeprivethemselvesofthesupportofthemassesand toyieldthepoliticalinitiativetoradicaldemagoguestomobilizethemassesonbehalfofunattainablegoalsisto courtaneventualexplosionunlessthatmobilizationbecomesavehicleforsubordinatingthemassesto
*

Onamoresophisticatedlevel,theeconomicsystemoftheadvancedcountriesiscondemnedasinherentlyincapableofprovidingtrue assistance."Thus,Furtado[theLatinAmericaneconomist]pointsout,thecorporationisdesignedtofittheneedsofprofitmakinginan advancedeconomy,andwhenonetriestotransplantitstechnologytoimpoverished,developinglands,furiouscontradictionsresult.The newestmachinessavemanpower ablessingintheUSandacurseinacountrywithrampantunderemployment.Massproduetionrequires ahugemarketnonexistentinanarchaicagriculturalsociety.So,Furtadoconcludes,theveryStructureofeconomiclifeinthenewnations forcedupontheminthelastcenturymakes itdifficultforthemtoabsorbthebenefitsofscientificandtechnicalprogressonthoserare occasionswheretheymighthavetheopportunitytodoso.Thus,therichnationsspecializeinactivitieswhichmakeworkeasier,goodsmore abundant,leisuremorewidespread,andlivingstandardshigher.Thepoornationsareleftwiththegrubbytasksofprimaryproductionand withastagnantordecliningmarkettheymustsellcheapandbuydearfromtheboomingfactories"(MichaelHarrington,AmericanPowerin theTwentiethCentury,NewYork,1967,p.9).

25

centralized,bureaucraticcontrolofthesortthatcommunistleadersprovidemosteffectively.Furthermore,to obtainthesupportofthepropertiedandmoreeducatedgroups,thereformplannersoftenhaveto"treadmost warilyinordernottodisruptthetraditionalsocialorder...theypermitthelawstocontainloopholesofallsorts 41 andevenletthemremainunenforced." Thedistancebetweenpromiseandattainmentthustendstowiden. TheprospectisthatfeelingsofintensiveresentmentwillmostlikelygrowasthegapbetweentheThird * Worldandthedevelopedworldwidens. Indeed,theywillprobablyintensifyasbytheyear2000thespectrum expandsandrangesfromthefewmostadvancedpostindustrialtechnetronicstates(theUnitedStates,Japan, Sweden,Canada),tothedozenorsomatureindustrialstates(onlythenapproachingthepresentlevelsofthe UnitedStates),tothetentofifteencurrently underdevelopedstatesthatby2000willhavereachedthelevelsof thecurrentlylessadvancedearlyindustrialstates,tothelargegroup(aboutsixty)stillinthepreindustrialstage, andfinallytothoseremainingstillinextremelyprimitiveconditions.Thethirdandfourthgroups,those containingthemajorityoftheworld'spopulationandexperiencingatbestonlypartiallyeffectiveprogress,will 42 inalllikelihoodbethecentersofvolatilepoliticalactivity,resentment,tension,andextremism. Inthatcontext,itisdifficulttoconceivehowdemocraticinstitutions(derivedlargelyfromWestern expteriencebuttypicalonlyofthemorestableandwealthyWesternnations)willendureinacountrylike Indiaorhowtheywilldevelopelsewhere. "Muchwilldependonthepaceofeconomicdevelopmentitself, 43 andinthisrespecttheomensarefarfrom favorable." Thelikelyconsequenceissporadicturbulencein individualcountriesandaturntowardpersonaldictatorships.Thelatterwillbebasedonmoreinternally oriented,thoughsociallyradical,unifyingdoctrinesinthehopethatthe.combinationofxenophobiaandcha rismamayprovidetheminimumstabilitynecessaryforimposingsocialeconomicmodernizationfromabove. AsinthecaseofurbanghettosintheUnitedStates,thismaymakeforatenserrelationshipwiththe moreprosperousandadvancedworld.Thelatterhasinrecentyearscometoacceptatleastasageneral proposition,andstillgrudginglyamoralobligationtoassistmateriallythedevelopmentoftheThirdWorld. This"newmorality"wasdoubtlessstimulatedbyColdWarrivalry,whichmadethetwodevelopedcamps competeinprovidingassistancetothebackwardnations.Itisfarfromcertainthatthesefeelingsofconscience willpersistiftheColdWarwanes theycertainlywillnotifEastWestrivalryisreplacedbyintensifyingNorth Southanimosity.Thepeoplesofthedevelopedworldmaywelltakerefugeintheselfservingargumentthatthe irrationalfanaticismoftheleadersoftheglobalghettosprecludescooperation.Suchanegativeposturewill ensureboththefurtherwideningofthegulfandamorebittersplitamongmankind,whichisforthefirsttime beginningtofiveinsubjectiveintimacy.

4.GlobalFragmentationandUnification
Thecumulativeeffectofthetechnetronicrevolutioniscontradictory.Ontheonehand,thisrevolutionmarksthe beginningsofaglobalcommunityontheotherhand,itfragmentshumanityanddetachesitfromitstraditional moorings.Thetechnetronicrevolutioniswideningthespectrumofthehumancondition.Itintensifiesthegulfin thematerialconditionofmankindevenasitcontractsmankind'ssubjectivetoleranceofthatdisparity. Thoughdifferencesamongsocietiesgraduallydevelopedinthecourseofhumanhistory,itwasnot untiltheindustrialrevolutionthatthesedifferencesbecamesharp.Todaysomenationsstillliveunderconditions notunlikethoseofpreChristiantimes,andmanyliveincircumstancesnobetterthanthoseoftheMiddleAges. Yetsoonafewwillliveinwayssonewthatitisnowdifficulttoimaginethesocialandpersonalramifications. Theresultcouldbeaprofoundthreewaysplitintheattitudesandviewsofmankind.Thecoexistenceof agrarian,industrial,andnewtechnetronicsocieties,eachprovidingdifferentperspectivesonlife,wouldmake understandingmoredifficultattheverytimeitbecomesmorepossible,anditwouldrendertheglobal acceptanceofcertainnormslesslikelyevenas itbecomesmoreimperative.

FragmentedCongestion
Thisthreewayglobalsplitcouldfurtherstrainthealreadyweakfabricofsocialandpoliticalorderandresultin domesticand,therefore,possiblyinternationalchaos.GrowinganarchyintheThirdWorldwouldverylikely involveracistandnationalistpassions.Attheveryleast,thiswouldcreatemajorpocketsofdisruptionandchaos intheworldatworst,ThirdWorldinstabilitycoulddrawthemoredevelopednationsintopotentially antagonisticformsofinvolvementthatcouldhavethesameeffectonAmericanSovietrelationsasBalkan conflictshadontheEuropeanorderpriortoWorldWarI. Inthemostadvancedworldthetensionbetween"internal"and"external"manbetweenman
*

In1965thepercapitaproductionofthedevelopedworldexceededthatofthelessdevelopedbytwelvetimesitisestimatedthatbythe year2000theproportionwillbeeighteentimesgreater(HermanKahn andAnthonyJ.Wiener,TheYear2000,NewYork,1967,p.142).In 1965IllinoisalonehadalargergrossproductthanallofAfricaCalifornia,morethanallofChina. "LikethestatesofseventeenthcenturyEuropethenonWesterncountriesoftodaycan havepoliticalmodernizationortheycanhave democraticpluralism,buttheycannotnormallyhaveboth"(Huntington,pp.13637). ThishasbeendulynotedbysomeThirdWorldspokesmen.TheAlgeriandelegatetotheUNEconomicandSocialCouncilmeetingin GenevasaidinJuly1966,"EvenasthedetenteintheColdWarhaspermittedanattenuationoftheconflictbetweenblocswithdifferent socialsystems,onemustfearthattheEastWestoppositionwillrevolveonitsaxisandbecomeanantagonismof NorthagainstSouth"(cited byHarrington,p.20).

26

preoccupiedwithhisinnermeaningandhisrelationshiptotheinfinite,andmandeeplyinvolvedinhis environmentandcommittedtoshapingwhatherecognizestobefinitepromptsanacutecrisisofphilosophic, religious,andpsychicidentitythiscrisisisaggravatedby thefearthatman'smalleabilitymaypermitwhatwas previouslyconsideredimmutablein,mantobeundermined.Theexplosioninscientificknowledgeposesthe dangerofintellectualfragmentation,withuncertaintyincreasingindirectproportiontotheexpansioninwhat is known.Theresult,especiallyintheUnitedStates(seePartIVfor moreextendeddiscussion),isanaccelerating searchfornewsocialandpoliticalforms. TheimpactoftheUnitedStatesasthefirstglobalsocietyreflectstheseconflictingtendencies.Though theUnitedStatessearchesforglobalstabilityanddevotesitsenormousresourcestopreventingrevolutionary upheavals,itssocialimpactontheworldisunsettling,innovative,and,creative.Evenasitprovokesviolent antagonismtoitself,itsetsoffexpectationsthataremeasuredbyAmericanstandardsandthatinmostcountries cannotbemetuntilwellintothenextcentury.Itacceleratestheunificationofothersocietiesnotonlybecause regionalismhassincethe1960sbecomeWashington'sprofessedforeignpolicyformulabutalsobecauseother nationsseeinunificationthebestweaponforcombatingAmericaninfluence.Initsroleasthefirstglobal society,itthusunifies,changes,stimulates,andchallengesothersoftenagainstitsownimmediateinterests. "Americanization"thuscreatescommonaspirationsandhighlydifferentiatedreactions. IntheThirdWorldtheeffectofUnitedStatesinfluenceistointensifysocialcontradictionsandconflict betweenthegenerations.Masscommunicationsandeducationcreateexpectations forwhichthematerial wealthofAmericaprovidesavaguestandardthatsimplycannotbemetbymostsocieties.Sinceneither communicationsnoreducationcanbecontained,itistobeexpectedthatpoliticaltensionswillmountaspurely parochial,traditionalattitudesyieldtobroaderglobalperspectives.Intheadvancedworldthecontemporary challengeincreasinglyfocusesontheidentityofman,butintheThird Worldsocialfragmentationloomsasthe principalproblemonewhichisinahistoricracewiththeadvancedsocieties'onlyslowlymaturingsenseof theirglobalresponsibilityforhelpingdeveloptheThirdWorld. Evennationalismissubjecttocontradictoryinfluences.Nationalismhasneverbeenstrongerandhas neverbeforeenjoyedsuchextensive,aroused,andconscioussupportfromthepopularmassesaswellasfrom theintelligentsia.Theinteractionofnationstatesstilldeterminesmattersaffecting warandpeace,andman's primaryselfidentificationisstillonthebasisofnationalism.ThenonRussianstatesintheSovietUnionare perhapstheonlyexceptiontonationalism'ssuccessfuldissolutionofcolonialempires.Yetpreciselybecausethis isso,nationalismisceasingtobethecompellingforcethatdeterminesthebroadcharacterofchangeinourtime. Thoughstillthesourceofmanytensions,itistemperedbythegrowingrecognition,sharedevenbythemostna tionalistelites,thattoday regionalandcontinentalcooperationisnecessarytothe fulfilment ofmanypurely nationalgoals.Thesuccessofnationalismmakesthenationaprincipalobject,butnolongerthevitalsubject,of dynamicprocesses. Becausehefindshimselflivingina congested,overlapping,confusing,andimpersonalenvironment, manseekssolaceinrestrictedandfamiliarintimacy.Thenationalcommunityistheobviousonetoturnto,anda definitionofwhatanationalcommunityismaywellbecomemorerestrictive asbroadertransnational cooperationdevelops.Formanypeoplesthenationstatewasacompromisedictatedbyeconomics,bysecurity, andby otherfactors.Anoptimumbalancewaseventuallystruck,oftenaftercenturiesofconflict.Todaythe balanceisbecomingunsettled,becausenewerandlargerframeworksofcooperationareemerging,andthe effectiveintegrationofmuchsmaller,morecohesiveunitsintomuchlargerwholesisbecomingincreasingly possiblebecauseofcomputers,cybernetics,communications,and so on. Asaconsequence,theFlemingsandtheWalloonsinBelgium,theFrenchandEnglishCanadiansin Canada,theScotsandtheWelshintheUnitedKingdom,theBasquesinSpain,theCroatsandtheSlovenesin Yugoslavia,andtheCzechsandSlovaksinCzechoslovakiaareclaimingandsomeofthenonRussianna tionalitiesintheSovietUnionandthevariouslinguisticethnicgroupsinIndiamaysoonclaimthattheir particularnationstatenolongercorrespondstohistoricalneed.Onahigherplane ithasbeenrendered superfluousbyEurope,orsomeotherregional(CommonMarket)arrangement,whileonalowerplaneamore intimatelinguisticandreligiouscommunityisrequiredtoovercometheimpactoftheimplosionexplosion characteristicofthe globalmetropolis. Thisdevelopmentisthusnotareturntotheemotionsortotheecstaticstyleofnineteenthcentury nationalism,eventhoughtherearemanysuperficialanalogiestoit.Ittakesplace,byandlarge,inacontextthat recognizesthecurrentnecessityforbroadercooperationonalevelabovethenational.Itacceptsasanidealthe functionalintegrationofregionsandevenofwholecontinents.Itisareflectionofthedesireforamoredefined senseofpersonalityinanincreasinglyimpersonalworld,andofthechangedutilityofsomeoftheexistingstate structures.ThiscanevenbesaidofGaullism,whichhasoftenbeendescribedasathrowbacktonineteenth centurynationalism.Nevertheless,Gaullism'smajorambitionwastoconstructaEuropethatwouldbe "European"andnotdominatedbyanexternalhegemony,though,tobesure,Francewouldexercisepolitical leadershipinit. The"new"nationalismhasmanyelementsoftheoldnationalism,especiallyinsomeofthenew nations.Therenationalismisstillaradical,changingforcecreativelymobilizingcommunityfeelingsbutalso

27

* promptingethnicexclusivenessandconflicts. Yetitisgenerallytrue,astheauthorofasuggestivepapernotes, that"thevisionandobjectivesofsociety[have]changed.Todayanewconceptofmanandhisworldis challengingtheconceptsoftheRenaissancewhichhaveguidedman'sbehaviorforthepastfivehundredyears." Thenationstateasafundamentalunitofman'sorganizedlifehasceasedtobethe principalcreativeforce: "Internationalbanksandmultinationalcorporationsareactingandplanningintermsthatarefarinadvanceof 44 thepoliticalconceptsofthenationstate." Butasthenationstateisgraduallyyieldingitssovereignty,the psychologicalimportanceofthenationalcommunityisrising,andtheattempttoestablishanequilibrium betweentheimperativesofthenewinternationalismandtheneedforamoreintimatenationalcommunityisthe sourceoffrictionsandconflicts. Theachievementofthatequilibriumisbeingmademoredifficultbythescientificandtechnological innovationsinweaponry.Itisironictorecallthatin1878FriedrichEngels,commentingontheFrancoPrussian War,proclaimedthat"weaponsusedhavereachedsuchastageofperfectionthatfurtherprogresswhichwould haveanyrevolutionizinginfluenceisnolonger,possible."45Notonlyhavenewweaponsbeendevelopedbut someofthebasicconceptsofgeographyandstrategyhavebeenfundamentallyalteredspaceandweather control havereplacedSuezorGibraltaraskeyelementsofstrategy. Inadditiontoimprovedrocketry,multimissiles,andmorepowerfulandmoreaccuratebombs,future developmentsmaywellincludeautomatedormannedspacewarships,deepseainstallations,chemicaland biologicalweapons,deathrays,andstillotherformsofwarfareeventheweathermaybetamperedwith. Thesenewweaponscouldeitherencourageexpectationsofonesided,relatively"inexpensive"victorypermit proxy conteststhatwillbedecisiveintheirstrategicpoliticaloutcomebutwillbefoughtbyonlyafewhuman 46 beings(asintheBattleofBritain)orevenbyrobotsinouterspace orsimplycreatesuchmutualinstabilitythat thebreakdownofpeacewillbecomeinevitable,inspiteofman'srationalrecognitionofthefutilityofwar. Inaddition,itmaybepossibleandtemptingtoexploitforstrategicpoliticalpurposesthefruitsof researchonthebrainandonhumanbehavior.GordonJ.F.MacDonald,a geophysicistspecializinginproblems ofwarfare,haswrittenthataccuratelytimed,artificiallyexcitedelectronicstrokes"couldleadtoapatternof oscillationsthatproducerelativelyhighpowerlevelsovercertainregionsoftheearth....Inthisway,onecould developasystemthatwouldseriouslyimpairthebrainperformanceofverylargepopulationsinselectedregions overanextendedperiod....Nomatterhowdeeplydisturbingthethoughtofusingtheenvironmentto manipulatebehaviorfornationaladvantagestosome,thetechnologypermittingsuchusewillveryprobably developwithinthenextfewdecades."47 Suchtechnologywillbeavailableprimarily,andtobeginwithexclusively,tothemostadvanced countries. ButitislikelythatinthecomingdecadessomestatesintheThirdWorldwillhavetakenmajorsteps towardacquiringorwillhaveacquired highlydestructiveweaponry.Eveniftheyarenotcapableofusingit againstthemajorpowerswithoutbringingabouttheirownextinction,theymaybeableandtemptedtouseitin "underworld"warsamongthemselves.Thequestionthenariseswhethersuchwarswouldbeinterpretedbythe majorpowersasposingadirectthreattothefabricofpeace,andwhetherajointresponsebythemwouldbe effectivelymountedandimposed.Theabsenceofacceptedglobalinstitutionscouldtemporarilybeovercomeby adhoc arrangementsandagreementsdesignedtomeetspecificthreats,butitisconceivablethatinsomecases therewillnotbesufficientunanimitytopermitjointreactions.Themutualannihilationofsomelesserstatesthus remainsatleastapossibility.

TowardaPlanetaryConsciousness
Yetitwouldbewrongtoconcludethatfragmentationandchaosarethedominantrealitiesofourtime.Aglobal humanconscienceisforthefirsttimebeginningtomanifestitself.Thisconscienceisanaturalextensionofthe longprocessofwideningman'spersonalhorizons.Inthecourseoftime,man'sselfidentificationexpandedfrom hisfamilyto hisvillage,tohistribe,tohisregion,tohisnationmorerecentlyitspreadtohiscontinent(before WorldWarIIitwasnotascustomaryasitisnowforuniversitystudentsorintellectualstodescribethemselves merelyasEuropeansorAsians).
*

"....InspiteofalltheparallelstoEuropeannationalism,thenewnationalisminSouthAsiaissomethingverydifferent.Itdiffersinmany morerespectsandformorefundamentalreasonsthanappears fromthequalificationsjustlisted.Thefundamentalreasonisthatanhistorical processthatinEuropespanscenturiesistelescopedwithinafewdecadesandthattheorderofthehappeningsisderanged....Nationalism thereisneededtoprovidethe impulseforchangeindeed,forallthenecessarychanges,andconcurrently.Thedifficultiesinthis syncopationofpolicies,thehistoricalnecessityofwhichisseenbyalltheenlightenedintellectualandpoliticalleadersintheregion,are immense" (Myrdal,pp.211819). Asonespecialistnoted,"Bytheyear2018,technologywillmakeavailabletotheleadersofthemajornationsavarietyoftechniquesfor conductingsecretwarfare,ofwhichonlyabareminimumofthesecurityforcesneedbeappraised.Onenationmayattackacompetitor covertlybybacteriologicalmeans,thoroughlyweakeningthepopulation(thoughwithaminimumoffatalities)beforetakingoverwithits ownovertarmedforces.Alternatively,techniquesofweathermodificationcouldbeemployedtoproduceprolongedperiodsofdroughtor storm,therebyweakeninganation'scapacityandforcingittoacceptthedemandsofthecompetitor"(GordonJ.F.MacDonald,Space,"in TowardtheYear2018,p.34). Thishasledoneconcernedscholartocomment,"Whetheritisusedtokill,hurt,nauseate,paralyze,causehallucination,ortoterrify militarypersonnelandcivilians,thesystematicuseofbiologicalandchemicalwarfarewillrequiretheresolutionofmajormoralandethical problems"(DonaldN.Michael,"SomeSpeculationsontheSocialImpactofTechnology,"mimeographedtextofaddresstotheColumbia UniversitySeminaronTechnologyandSocialChange,p.6).

28

DuringthelastthreecenturiesthefadingoftheessentiallytransnationalEuropeanaristocracyandthesuccessive nationalizationoftheChristianchurch,ofsocialism,andofcommunismhavemeantthatinrecenttimesmost significantpoliticalactivityhas tendedtobeconfinedwithinnationalcompartments.Todayweareagain witnessingtheemergenceoftransnationalelites,butnowtheyarecomposedofinternationalbusinessmen, scholars,professionalmen,andpublicofficials.Thetiesofthesenewelitescutacrossnationalboundaries,their perspectivesarenotconfinedbynationaltraditions,andtheirinterestsaremorefunctionalthannational.These globalcommunitiesaregaininginstrengthanck aswastrueintheMiddleAges,itislikelythatbeforelong the socialelitesofmostofthemoreadvancedcountrieswillbehighlyinternationalistorglobalistinspiritand outlook.Thecreationoftheglobalinformationgrid,facilitatingalmostcontinuousintellectualinteractionand thepoolingof knowledge,willfurtherenhancethepresenttrendtowardinternationalprofessionalelitesand towardtheemergenceofacommonscientificlanguage(ineffect,thefunctionalequivalentofLatin).This,how ever,couldcreateadangerousgapbetweenthem andthepoliticallyactivatedmasses,whose"nativism" exploitedbymorenationalistpoliticalleaderscouldworkagainstthe"cosmopolitan"elites. Increasingly,theintellectualelitestendtothinkintermsofglobalproblems.Onesignificantaspectof thisprocessisthewayinwhichcontemporarydilemmasareidentified:theneedtoovercometechnical backwardness,toeliminatepoverty,toextendinternationalcooperationineducationandhealth,topreventover * population,todevelopeffectivepeacekeepingmachinery. These areallglobalissues.Onlythirtyyearsagothey weresimplynotintheforefrontofpublicattention,whichwasrivetedatthetimeonmuchmorespecific regional,national,orterritorialconflicts. Thetechnetronicrevolutioncreatesconditionsthatincreasinglymakepossibleglobalresponsestothese needsandtohumansufferingingeneral.Indeed,arudimentaryframeworkofglobalsocialandeconomic institutionshasalreadytakenshape. Theavailabilityofthemeanstocooperategloballyintensifiesthesenseof obligationtoact.Conscienceiseasilypacifiedbyafeelingoffutility.Anuneasyconscienceisusuallyonethat knowsthatitcanactdifferently.Thesenseofproximity,theimmediacyofsuffering,thegloballydestructive characterofmodernweaponsallhelptostimulateanoutlookthatviewsmankindasacommunity. Itisahopefulsigninthisconnectionthattheyardsticksbywhichthepublicmeasuresinternational competitionareundergoingaconstructive change.Intherecentpast,andeveninthepresent,territorial expansion,population,andvaguenationalclaimsofculturalandideologicalsuperiority,aswellasmilitary poweringeneralandvictoryindirectcontestsinparticular,haveprovidedthe criteriaformeasuringstatusand influence.GraduallythesearegivingwaytorivalryinGNPfigures,percapitaincomeandconsumptiondata, educationalopportunities,creativeandscientificattainments,researchanddevelopment,standardsofhealthand nutrition,andevencompetitivenationalOlympicscores,tosaynothingofthespaceracebetweenthetwosuper powers.Toanyonelivingin1914thecurrentinternationalrivalry inproducingmoreimpressivechartsandin definingnewindicesformeasuringnationalstatuswouldbewellnighincomprehensibleatthattimenationalist geopoliticsprovidedamoredirect appeal. Todayadifferentorientationisbecomingdominant.Socialproblemsareseenlessastheconsequence ofdeliberateevilandmoreastheunintendedbyproductsofbothcomplexityandignorancesolutionsarenot soughtinemotionalsimplificationsbutintheuseofman'saccumulatedsocialandscientificknowledge. Increasingly,itisfeltthatthevariationsinbothscientificdevelopmentandthehumanpsychedonotlend themselvestodoctrinalsolutionsformulatedinadvanceinaddition,theunanticipatedconsequencesofthe discoveriesofsciencehaveproduced,especiallyinthemoreadvancedcountries,anawarenessthatthebasic issuesfacingmanhaveacommonsignificanceforhumansurvival,irrespectiveofinternationalinternal diversity. Theconcernwithideologyisyieldingtoapreoccupationwithecology.Itsbeginningscanbeseenin theunprecedented'publicpreoccupationwithmatterssuchasairandwaterpollution,famine,overpopulation, radiation,andthecontrolofdisease,drugs,andweather,aswellasintheincreasinglynonnationalisticap proachestotheexplorationofspaceoroftheoceanbed.Thereisalreadywidespreadconsensusthatfunctional 48 planningisdesirableandthatitistheonlywayto copewiththevariousecologicalthreats. Furthermore,given thecontinuingadvancesincomputersandcommunications,thereisreasontoexpectthatmoderntechnology willmakesuchplanningmorefeasibleinaddition,multispectralanalysisfromearthsatellites(abyproductof thespacerace)holdsoutthepromiseofmoreeffectiveplanninginregardtoearthresources. Thenewglobalconsciousness,however,isonlybeginningtobecomeaninfluentialforce.Itstilllacks identity,cohesion,andfocus.Muchofhumanityindeed,themajorityofhumanitystillneithersharesnoris preparedtosupportit.Scienceandtechnologyarestillusedtobuttressideologicalclaims,tofortify national
* "Wearediscoveringtheneedforcoordinationattheworldlevel,forlookingaheadsothatthepiecescanbefittedtogethermoreprecisely. Thishasbroughtustothebeginningofglobalplanning.FAOisapioneer:itsIndicativeWorldPlanisthefirstsuchattempt,theprototype versionofwhichwillbereadyin1969.TheILOisworkinghardonaWorldEmploymentPlan. "TheU.N.'sCenterforDevelopmentPlanning,ProjectionsandPolicies(CDPPP)ispreparingwhatcouldwellbecalledtheframeworkfora masterplancoveringallsuchactivities.Thisispartofthetaskimposedonitbyassemblyresolutionswhichrequestthesecretarygeneral,in plainwords,topreparefuturedevelopmenteffortswhichareanimprovementonthepresentdevelopmentdecade"(JanTinbergen,"TheWay OutoftheLabyrinth," Ceres (FAOReview),Vol.1,No.3,MayJune1968,p.20). Tolistbutafew:aworldhealthorganization,aworldfoodandagriculturalorganization,aworldlabororganization,aworldeducational andculturalorganization,aworldbank,aglobalmeteorologicalorganization,aninternationalatomicenergyagency,aninternationalcivil aviationorganization,aninternationalagencyforthepeacefulusesofouterspace,anagencyfortappingtheoceanbeds,etc.

29

aspirations,andtorewardnarrowlynationalinterests.Moststatesarespendingmoreonarmsthanonsocial services,andtheforeignaidallotmentofthetwomostpowerfulstatesishighlydisproportionateto theirasserted * globalmissions. Indeed,itcanbearguedthatinsomerespectsthedivided,isolated,andcompartmentalized worldofoldhadmoreinnercohesionandenjoyedgreaterharmonythanthevolatileglobalrealityoftoday. Establishedcultures,deeplyentrenchedtraditionalreligions,anddistinctivenationalidentitiesprovidedastable frameworkandfirmmooringsdistanceandtimeweretheinsulatorsagainstexcessivefrictionbetweenthe compartments.Todaytheframeworkisdisintegratingandtheinsulantsaredissolving.Thenewglobalunityhas yettofinditsownstructure,consensus,andharmony.

Itwasestimatedthatin1966globalarmsspendingwas40percentgreaterthantheworld'soutlaysforeducationandwasmorethanthree timesgreaterthantheworld'spublichealthbudget.InthatsameyearthetotalforeignaidextendedbytheUnitedStateswasapproximately $4billion,bytheSovietUnionapproximately$330million(bothsetsoffiguresfrom"WorldMilitaryExpenditures,19661967,"U.S.Arms ControlandDisarmamentAgency,Washington,D.C.,1968,especiallypp.912).

30

PARTII
TheAgeofVolatileBelief
Theageofvolatilebeliefisintimatelylinkedwiththeimpactofthetechnetronicrevolutiononexisting ideologiesandoutlooksonlife.Whatmanthinksiscloselyrelatedtowhatmanexperiences.Therelationship betweenthetwoisnotcausalbutinteracting:experienceaffectsthought,andthoughtconditionsthe interpretationofexperience.Todaythedominantpatternseemsincreasinglytobethatofhighlyindividualistic, unstructured,changingperspectives.Institutionalizedbeliefs,theresultofthemergerofideasandinstitutions, nolongerappeartomanyasvitalandrelevant,whiletheskepticismthathascontributedsoheavilytothe underminingofinstitutionalizedbeliefsnowclasheswiththenewemphasisonpassionandinvolvement.The resultformanyisaneraoffads,ofrapidlyshiftingbeliefs,withemotionsprovidingforsometheunifying cementpreviouslysuppliedbyinstitutionsandwiththefadedrevolutionaryslogansofthepastprovidingthe neededinspirationforfacinganaltogetherdifferentfuture. Severalbroadphasescanbediscernedintheformationofthecollectivehumanconsciousnessthat conditionsourresponsetorealityandprovidestheframeworkforintellectuallystructuringthatreality.Thegreat religionsofrecordedhistorywerecrucialinestablishingaperspectivethatlinkedman'sindividualpreoccupation withhisinnerlifetoauniversalGod,whowasthesourceofastandardof behaviourbindinguponall.Reality wasGodgiven,andthelinebetweenthefiniteandtheinfinitewasblurred. Theideologicalphaseassociatedwithindustrializationandthespreadofliteracy involvedamuch higherpropensitytowardsocialactivismandemphasizedmoreimmediategoals,asdefinedeitherintermsofthe nationorsomeothercollectivegood,theexternalconditionofmanbeingtheprimaryfocus.Activismcalledfor amoreexplicitdefinitionofourreality,andsystematic,evendogmatic,intellectualframeworksweremeantto meetthatneed. Inourtimetheestablishedideologiesarecomingunderattackbecausetheirinstitutionalizedcharacter, whichwasonceusefulinmobilizing therelativelyuneducatedmasses,hasbecomeanimpedimenttointellectual adaptation,whiletheirconcernwiththeexternalqualitiesoflifeisincreasinglyfelttoignoretheinner,more spiritualdimension.Commitmenttoindividualaction,basedonmoralindignationandstimulatedbyamuch higherlevelofgeneraleducation,hasbecomeasubstituteforhighlyorganizedactivity,thoughitavoidsthe passivityandindifferencetoexternalrealitythatwascharacteristicofthepreideologicalage. Compellingideologiesthusaregivingwaytocompulsiveideas,butwithouttheeschatologythat characterizedotherhistoricaleras.Yetthereisstillafeltneedforasynthesisthatcandefinethemeaningandthe historicalthrustofourtimes.Inthatsearchthedominatingpassionisequalityamongmenwithininstitutions, withinsocieties,amongraces,andamongnations.Equalitymotivatesboththerebelsintheuniversitiesinthe WestandintheEastandthenewnationsintheirstruggleagainstthebetterestablishedandricherones.This emphasis,aswellasthefearofpersonalobsolescence,causesconcerninmanythatthenewpostindustrialage willrequireevengreaterdifferentiationinskills,competences,andintellectualpreparation,therebywideningthe disparitieswithinthehumanconditionatatimeofeverintensifyingglobalinteraction.

1.TheQuestforaUniversalVision
"Mancamesilentlyintotheworld."1 Butthoughhiscomingisshroudedinmysteryinthesensethat westillknowlittleabouttheactualbeginningsofhumanexistencefromearliestknownhistorymanhasgiven evidenceofanintenseyearningtounderstandhimselfandhisenvironment.Howevercrudelyandprimitively, manhasalwayssoughttocrystallizesomeorganizingprinciplethatwould,bycreatingorderoutofchaos,relate 2 himtotheuniverseandhelpdefinehisplaceinit. 3 Despitethedisappearanceinearliertimesofentirecultures, humanevolutionorsocial developmenthasinvolvedbothanexpansioninman's awarenessofhimselfandhisfellowsasahumanentity endowedwithcertaincommonqualitiesandanincreasinglysystematicintellectualefforttodefineandorganize hisexternalrealitymeaningfully.TherehasthusbeenatworkwhatTeilharddeChardinhascalled"an augmentationofconsciousness...astreamwherebyacontinuingandtransmissibletraditionofreflectionis establishedandallowedtoincrease."4 Intermsoftheentiretyofhumanexistence,that"stream"mayindeedbeashortone,asthecriticsofthe notionofhistorical progressreadilypointout.Nevertheless,recordedhistorydoesprovidestrongevidenceof growthoftenhaltinganduneven,butgrowthnonethelessinman'sconsciousnessofacommonhumanfate,of * certainuniversalcravings, andofcommonmoralstandard. Evenwhentheycompete,religionsandideologies
*

Wearetalkinghereaboutourhistoryofourhistoricalcivilization.ClaudeLeviStraussisotherwisequiterightinpointingoutthat"...it isforgottenthateachofthetensorhundredsofthousandsofsocietieswhichhaveexistedsidebysideintheworldorsucceededoneanother sinceman'sfirstappearance,hasclaimedthatitcontainstheessenceofallthemeaninganddignityofwhichhumansocietyiscapableand, reducedthoughitmayhavebeentoasmallnomadbandorahamletlostinthedepthsoftheforest,itsclaimhasinitsowneyesrestedona moralcertaintycomparabletothatwhichwecaninvokeinourowncase.Butwhetherintheircaseorourown,agooddealofegocentricity

31

haveincreasinglydonesointermsofandforthesakeofprinciplesthatseem,whenviewedfromahistorical perspective,moreandmoretoinvolvesemanticandnotsubstantivedifferences.Thisisnottodenythatpractice hasoftenwidelydiffered,itis,however,remarkablethatconflictshavebeenwagedovercompetitiveclaimsto asuperiorinterpretationandapplicationofsuchuniversalvaluesasdemocracy,welfare,individualdignity,and personalfreedom.

TheUniversalReligions
Thecrucialbreakthroughinthedevelopmentofhumanselfawarenessonamassscalecamewiththegreat religionsthefirstuniversalsynthesesthatsimultaneouslyexpandedman'svisionbothverticallyand horizontally:vertically,todefineinextendedandcomplextermsman'srelationshiptoaGodthatwasnotasmall group'salone buteveryone's horizontally,toarticulateaseriesofimperativesthatgovernedman'sobligationsto manonthegroundsthatallsharedthedivinespark.Universalismthusemergedasastateofmindevenatatime whenmanwasstill provincialandisolatedinmutuallyexclusivesocialculturalcompartments. Accordingly,thebirthoftheuniversalreligionsrepresentstheappearaneeofhumanity qua humanity. Theassertionofman'sequalitybeforeGodintermsofhisspirit,hisconscience,orhissoul,laidthebasisforthe transcendentalimportanceofthehumanbeingandforthemuchlaterassertionofthe equalityofmenintheir politicalandsocialdimensions.Inthatsense,proselytizingChristianity,whichuniversalizedthemorelimited GreekandJudaictradition,wasaparticularlyrevolutionaryforceandwasviewedassuchbyestablished authority,inspiteofthedistinctionitmadebetweenequalitybeforeGodandobeisancetoCaesaronCaesar's terms.Ifhumanhistorycanbesaidtoinvolvebothastruggleiandanevolutiontowardtheprogressiveliberation ofman,thentheattainmentofequalitybeforethesupernaturalwasthefirstmajorsteponthatroad. Butearlymancouldneithercontrolnorcomprehendeitherhimselforhisenvironment.Bothwere essentiallyamystery,agiventobeaccepted,whateverthepainsoflifemightbe.Asaconsequence,thedistant futurebecameamuchmoreintenseobjectofpreoccupationthantheimmediatepresent.Theinabilitytocope effectivelywithdisease,plagues,infantmortality,ashortlifespan,ornaturaldisasterssuchasfloodsandcrop blightspromptedmantoseekrefugeinallencompassingdefinitionsofhisreality.Theseinturnprovidedat leastpartialjustificationfortheviewthathumanendeavorwasfutileandforthenecessityofacceptingevents withfatalism.Bytakingrefugeinanautonomous,distant,divinefuture,manrelievedhimselfoftheobligation tostruggleintenselywiththepresentundercircumstanceshewasneitherintellectuallynorpracticallyprepared for. Eventhenotionof"freewill"acentralcomponentofthemostactivistofthegreatreligions,Christianity basicallyinvolvedaninneractofconsciencenecessaryforthestateofgrace,ratherthanapointofdeparturefor morallymotivatedexternalaction.Nostresswasplacedonthestruggletoimproveexternalconditions,because theunstatedassumptionwasthattheycouldnotbefundamentallyimproved.Theemphasiswasontheinner manbyrivetinghisattentionontheuniversalandthedivinefuture,mancouldmasterthepresentbysimply ignoringit.Minimumsocial actionwasmatchedbymaximumcommitmenttothesupernatural. Tomeetthecentralneedoftheirtimemainly,toprovidemanwithafirmmooringinaworldwhich couldnotbecomprehendedandtoassertfirmcontroloverman'sspirit,religiousbeliefscrystallizedinto * dogmasandwereorganizedintoinstitutions. Themoreindividuallydemandingthereligion,thehigherwasthe degreeofinstitutionalization. (ThishaspromptedtheanalogiesmadebyanumberofscholarsbetweenIslam 5 andChristianityontheonehandandcommunismontheother.) Withtheinstitutionalizationcamemore activism(theCrusadesandtheholywarsofIslam)andtheexerciseofmusclebyreligiousorganizationsontheir environment.Powerwasasserted,however,toextendtheconquestofthespirit,nottoeffectsocialchange.The institutionalizationofbeliefthuscombinedtwofunctions:itwasthezealots'selfdefensemechanismagainsta nonbelievingenvironment,anditwasatoolforsustainedproselytization,onedesignednotonlytowinover adherentsbuttoovercometheinertialresistanceofthemasses,whowerelargelyindifferenttospiritual 6 requirements. AlthoughChristianityhasbeenthemostactivistofthegreatreligionsandhastherebylaidthebasisfor thesubsequentsecularrevolutionarymovementsthathavedominatedWesternhistory,theprocessof institutionalizationandhencetheemergenceonthepartoforganizedreligionofastakeinthe statusquohas tendedtomutetheradicalmessageintheChristianconceptofhistory:themovementtowardsalvation"onearth
andnaivetyisnecessarytobelievethatmanhastakenrefugeinasingleoneofthehistoricalorgeographicalmodesofhis existence,when thetruthaboutmanresidesinthesystemoftheirdifferencesandcommonproperties"(TheSavageMind,Chicago,1966,p.249). * IdonotproposenordoIfeelqualifiedtobecomeinvolvedinthedebateamongMarxists,Freudians,andJungiansconcerningthe autonomyandthefunctionalityofreligiousdevelopment.Myconcernhereiswiththeemergenceofaconceptualandinstitutional frameworkfordefiningman'srelationshiptohisreality. AnextremeexampleisprovidedbytheCatholic Church'sinsistenceoncelibacy.Asonescholarhasnoted,"Celibacyensuredforitan exclusiveloyaltyofitspersonnelthatwasunavailabletoothermodernreligiousinstitutions.Itoftencontributedtoitsamazingcapacityto resistsecularauthority.Itisworthnotinginpassingthatchurcheswithmarriedpriesthoods,betheyLutheran,Anglican,orGreekOrthodox (thelatterallowingmarriageonlyforthelowerordersofpriests),havenotbeenabletostandupagainstsecularauthorityinaway comparabletothatoftheCatholicChurch.TheProtestantandOrthodoxchurcheshavetypicallybeenservantsandappendagesofsecular authority.Theyrarelycouldaffordtoresistit.Onereasonforthiswaspreciselythattheirclericalpersonnelwasdeeplyinvolvedinthemesh ofcivilsociallife"(LewisA.Coser,"GreedyOrganizations,"EuropeanJournalofSociology,Vol.7,1967,p.206).

32

asinHeaven."ThusinpracticetheChristianchurcheshavegraduallycometoacceptsocialstratificationand eventobenefitfromit(asinLatinAmerica),andsomeLutheranvarietieshave evencometosanctionindogma conceptsofracialinequalitythatareatextremevariancewiththeinitialegalitarianrevolutionrepresentedbythe newChristianrelationshipbetweenGodandman. Theothergreatreligionshavebeenmorepassivebothinpracticeandintheory.Buddhismdoesnot containimperativesforsocialchangebutofferssalvationfromreality.UnlikeChristianity,nirvanadidnotserve asaspringboardfortemporalactivism.Similarly,Islam'sdominantstrainoffatalismhasworkedagainstthe presenceofatleastthatelementoftensionbetween"eternalpeace"and"heavenonearth"thatissostrongin 7 Christianityandthathasprompteditsrepressedactivism.

TheNationalIdentity
WiththegrowthintheWestofman'sabilityto masterhisenvironment,secularrationalism, accompaniedbyagreaterawarenessofsocialcomplexityaswellasbyabreakdownintheexistingstructureof religiousallegiance,emergedtochallengeinstitutionalizedreligion.Thatreligiousallegiancesimultaneously restedonthenarrownessandontheuniversalismofman'shorizons:thenarrownessderivedfrommassive ignorance,illiteracy,andavisionconfinedtotheimmediateenvironmentbylimitedcommunicationsthe universalismwasprovidedbytheacceptance oftheideathatman'sdestinyisessentiallyinGod'shandsandthat thelimitedpresentisbutasteppingstonetoanunlimitedfuture.Emergingsecularismchallengedboth dimensions,andinsodoingrequiredfortheexternalprojectionofman'sidentityanintermediaryfocusof loyaltysomethinginbetweentheimmediateandtheinfinite.Thenationstateandnationalismwerethere sponses. Thedoctrineofsovereigntycreatedtheinstitutionalbasisforchallengingthesecularauthorityofestablished religion,andthischallengeinturnpavedthewayfortheemergenceoftheabstractconceptionofthenation state.Sovereigntyvestedinthepeople,insteadofsovereigntyvestedintheking,wastheconsummationofthe processwhichinthetwo centuriesprecedingtheFrenchandAmericanrevolutionsradicallyalteredthestructure * ofauthorityintheWest andpreparedthegroundforanewdominantconceptofreality.Thenationstate becamesimultaneouslytheembodimentofpersonalcommitmentsandthepointofdepartureforanalyzing reality.Thisdevelopmentmarkedanewphaseinman'spoliticalconsciousness. Nationalismdidnotseektodirecttheindividualtowardtheinfinite,buttoactivatetheimpersonal massesforthesakeofimmediatelyproximategoals.Paradoxically,theseconcretegoalswerederivedfromthe stillintangibleandtranscendental,though new,objectofworship:thenation.Thenationbecamethesourceof ecstatic,lyricalaffection,anditwas thishighlyemotionalrelationship,symbolizedbythenewanthems("La Marseillaise"),flags,andheroes,thatservedtoenergizethepopulace.Theconcretegoalstooktheformof massivepreoccupationwithfrontiers,irredenta,"brethren"toberegainedfromforeigncaptivity,and,more generally,thepowerandthegloryofthestateastheformalexpressionofthenation.Thestatethusbecamethe institutionalformforthenewdominantbelief,withamonopolisticclaimontheactivededicationtoitof man, nowdesignated,firstandaboveall,asthecitizen. Thedesignation"manthecitizen"symbolicallymarksanothermilestoneintheevolutionofmanasa socialbeing.EqualitybeforeGodwasnowmatchedbyequalitybeforethelawspiritualegalitarianismwasnow reinforcedbylegalegalitarianism.ItisofnotethatlegalequalitywasassertedbothbytheAmericanRevolution, whichsupplementeditsstressonequalitybeforethelawwithastrongattachmenttoreligiousvaluesindeed,it derivedtheformerfromthelatterandbytheFrenchRevolution,whichconstructeditspantheonofhuman equalitybyexplicitlyrejectingthereligioustradition.Inbothcasesthelegalequalityofthecitizenwas postulatedasauniversalprincipleandthusitmarkedanothergiantstepintheprogressiveredefinitionofman's natureandplaceinourworld. Withnationalism,thedistinctionbetweentheinnercontemplativeman,concernedwithhisrelationship toGod,andtheexternalman, concernedwithshapinghisenvironment,becameblurred.Nationalismasan ideologywasmoreactivistman'srelationstomanwereobjectivizedexternallybylegalnormsandwerenot dependent,aswasman'srelationtoGod,onpersonalconscienceyetatthesametimethedefinitionofmanasa "national"wasbasedlargelyonabstract,historicallydetermined,andhighlyemotionalcriteria.Thisoutlook involvedconsiderablevaguenessandevenirrationalitywhenusedasaconceptualframeworkwithinwhich relationsbetweennationsanddevelopmentswithinnationsmightbeunderstood.Nationalismonlypartially increasedmen'sselfawarenessitmobilizedthemactivelybutfailedtochallengetheircriticalfacultiesitwas moreamassvehicleforhumanpassionandfantasizingthanaconceptualframeworkthatmadeitpossibleto
*

"Inbothitsreligiousanditssecularversions,inFilmeraswellasinHobbes,theimportofthenewdoctrine ofsovereigntywasthe subject'sabsolutedutyofobediencetohisking.Bothdoctrineshelpedpoliticalmodernizationbylegitimizingtheconcentrationofauthority andthebreakdownofthemedievalpluralisticpoliticalorder.Theyweretheseventeenthcenturycounterpartsofthetheoriesofparty supremacyandnationalsovereigntywhicharetodayemployedtobreakdowntheauthorityoftraditionallocal,tribal,andreligiousbodies.In theseventeenthcentury,massparticipationinpoliticsstilllayinthefuturehencerationalizationofauthoritymeantconcentrationofpower intheabsolutemonarch.Inthetwentiethcentury,thebroadeningofparticipationandtherationalizationofauthorityoccursimultaneously, andhenceauthoritymustbeconcentratedineitherapoliticalpartyorinapopularcharismaticleader,bothofwhicharecapableofarousing themassesaswellaschallengingtraditionalsourcesofauthority.Butintheseventeenthcenturytheabsolutemonarchwasthefunctional equivalentofthetwentiethcentury'smonolithicparty"(Huntington,p.102).

33

dissectandthendeliberatelyreassembleourreality.

IdeologicalUniversalism
ThatiswhyMarxismrepresentsafurthervitalandcreativestageinthematuringofman'suniversal vision.Marxismissimultaneouslyavictoryoftheexternal,activemanovertheinner,passivemanandavictory ofreasonoverbelief:itstressesman'scapacitytoshapehismaterialdestinyfiniteanddefinedasman'sonly realityanditpostulatesthe absolutecapacityofmantotrulyunderstandhisrealityasapointofdeparturefor hisactiveendeavorstoshapeit.Toagreaterextentthananypreviousmodeofpoliticalthinking,Marxismputsa premiumonthesystematicandrigorousexaminationofmaterialrealityandonguidestoactionderivedfrom thatexamination. Thoughitmaybearguedthatthisintellectuallyrigorousmethodwaseventuallysubvertedbyitsstrong componentofdogmaticbelief,Marxismdidexpandpopularselfawarenessbyawakeningthemassestoan intensepreoccupationwithsocialequalityandbyprovidingthemwithbothahistoricalandamoraljustification forinsistinguponit.Morethanthat,Marxismrepresentedinitstimethemostadvancedandsystematicmethod foranalyzingthedynamicofsocialdevelopment,forcategorizingit,andforextrapolatingfromitcertain principlesconcerningsocialbehavior.Itdidsoinamannerthatlentitselftotranslationintohighlysimplified principlesthatprovidedeventherelativelyuneducatedwiththefeelingthattheirunderstandingofphenomena hadbeenbasicallysharpenedandthattheirresentments,frustrations,andvagueaspirationscouldbe channelled intohistoricallymeaningfulactions. Becauseofthis,Marxismappealedsimultaneouslytoman'sethical,rational,andPrometheaninstincts. Theethicalcomponent,sustainedbyman'semotions,drewontheJudaeoChristianheritagetherational respondedtoman'sincreaseddesiretocomprehendthedynamicofhismaterialenvironmentmoresystem aticallyandthePrometheanstoodfor"man'sfaithinhispowers,forthenotionthathistoryismadebythe peopleandthatnothingcanhemintheiradvancetoperfection."8 Inthissense,Marxismhasservedasamechanismofhuman "progress,"evenifitspracticehasoften fallenshortofitsideals.TeilharddeChardinnotesatonepointthat"monstrousasitis,isnotmodern totalitarianismreallythedistortionofsomethingmagnificent,andthusquiteneartothetruth?"9Elsewherehe observesthat"allthepeoples,toremainhumanortobecomemoreso,areinexorablyledtoformulatethehopes andproblemsofthemodernearthintheverysametermsinwhichtheWesthasformulatedthem."10 Whathe doesnotsayisthatformanyoutsidetheimmediateinfluenceoftheWestanditsChristiantraditionithasbeen Marxismthathasservedtostirthemindandtomobilizehumanenergiespurposefully. Moreover,Marxismhasdecisivelycontributedtothepoliticalinstitutionalizationandsystematization ofthedeliberateefforttodefinethenatureofoureraandofman'srelationshiptohistoryatanygivenstagein thathistory.Emphasisonthisquestionhascompelledreflectionontherelativeimportanceofdifferentforcesof change,theweighingofalternativehistoricalinterpretations,andatleasttheattemptattentativejudgment. Moreover,ithasprovokedaseriesofsubordinatequestions,allhelpfulinforcingrecognitionofchangeandin compellingadjustmentstoit:Withinthegivenera,whatparticularphasescanbedeciphered?Isanygivenphase oneofinternationaltension,ofgreaterstability,ofshiftinglocaleofconflict,ofanewsetofalliances?Whoare ourpresentprincipalfoessubjectivelyandobjectively?Who arenowourallies?Whatarethesourcesof principal,secondary,andtertiarydangers? Periodic,formal,purposefulexaminationofsuchquestionscompelssystematicprobingofthe internationalscene.Thisisnottosaythatcontemporarycommunistshavealwaysbeensuccessfulinaccurately perceivingthemeaningofnewinternationalphenomena.Indeed,theirconvictionthattheiranalyticaltools provideafaultlessguidetotheinnermeaningofthingshasoftenledthemastray.Unwillingtoacceptthenotion oftherelativityandelusivenessoftruth,theyhaveelevatedtheirinescapablypartialinsightsintoabsolute dogmasandreducedcomplexissuestogrossoversimplifications. Nonetheless,todefinecommunismtheinstitutionalizedexpressionofMarxismprimarilyas"a diseaseofthetransitionfromtraditionaltomodernstatus,"11 ortoassertthat"Marxismis,infact,nothingbutan epiphenomenonoftechnicaldevelopment,aphaseofthepainfulmarriageofmanandtechnique,"12istoneglect what willprobablyremainthemajorcontributionofMarxism:itsrevolutionaryandbroadeninginfluence,which openedman'smindtopreviouslyignoredperspectivesanddramatizedpreviouslyneglectedconcerns.Tosayas muchisnottoignorethesubsequentlyenslavingeffectofinstitutionalizedMarxismespeciallywhenin poweroritsanalyticalinabilitytocopewiththeproblemsoftheadvancedtwentiethcenturyworlditisto assertthatinthegradualevolutionofman'suniversalvisionMarxismrepresents asimportantandprogressivea stageastheappearanceofnationalismandofthegreatreligions. Inallthreecasesreligion,nationalism,andMarxismthebreakthroughhadmanyantecedentsand didnotsuddenlycomeaboutastheresultofanentirelyautonomousactofcreativegenius.Marxcapitalizedon theintellectualachievementsofhisimmediatepredecessors,forsomeofwhomsocialismhadastrongreligious * basis. Similarly,nationalismandthegreatreligionswerethearticulatesynthesesofmoods,ofattitudes,andofa
*

PierreLeroux(17971871)wasamongthefirsttoanalyzetheterm"socialism"conceptuallyandtouseitinhiswritings.Hesawin socialismthefulfillmentofreligiousimperatives.

34

certainsocialreceptivitythathadmaturedoveraverylongperiodoftime.Also,inallthreecasesthe breakthroughinperceptionwasfollowedbyperversioninpractice:religiouswarsandtheInquisition, national hatredsexpressedinunprecedentedmassslaughterbrutalterror,purges,andtotalitariansubjugationofthemind aswellasthebodyinthenameofa"humanist"ideology. Nevertheless,inallthreecasestheintellectualhorizonsofman,oncewidened,couldnotagainbe narrowed.EqualitybeforeauniversalGodandtheemphasisonindividualconscience,equalitybeforethelaw andacommitmenttoasocialentitylargerthantheimmediateone,socialequalityandaconcernforanalytically dissectingthedynamicthrustofhistoryallhavecumulativelyhelpedtoferineandenlargeman'spoliticaland socialconsciousness.GiventhedominantroleoftheactivistWestinshapingtheoutlookofourtimes,now,in thesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury,almosteveryoneoftenwithoutknowingitistosomeextenta Christian,anationalist,andaMarxist.

2.TurbulencewithinInstitutionalizedBeliefs
Itisincreasinglydifficultforinstitutionstoassertdogmaticallythepristinepurityofthedoctrinesthat theyclaimtoembody.ThisisastrueoftheChristianchurchesasofcommunistpartiesinsomeofthemore advancedcountriesthisdifficultyalsoinvolvesespeciallyonthepartoftheyoungacrisisinallegiancetothe proceduresofliberaldemocracy.Todaythe relationshipofideastoinstitutionsisturbulent:institutionsresist ideaslesttheyleadtochangesthatunderminetheinstitutions,andtheexponentsofideasrebelagainst institutionsbecauseoftheintellectualconstraintssaidtobeinherentintheirexistence. Thisdevelopmentispartoftheprogressivesecularizationofourlife.Animportantroleinthisprocess isplayedbythechangedcharacterofcontemporarycommunications,whichpermitsrapiddisseminationofideas andimages,andrequires lessrelianceonanorganizedefforttoproselytize.Today,morepeopleareexposedto impressionsthatarebothmorefluidandmorevolatilethaneverbefore.Thereisnolongerthesameneedto challengerigidandtraditionaltabooswithalternativeand moreappealingvisions,ortoovercomesocialinertia withorganizedmobilizationofeffort.Allthisputsinstitutionalizedbeliefsonthedefensive:moreandmoretheir effortsaredesignedtoretainthepositiveloyaltyoftheiradherentsandtocombatinfluencesthatareinimicalto structured,formalized,andhighlyinstitutionalizedbeliefs. Writingalmostacenturyago,Marxobservedthat"uptillnowithasbeenthoughtthatthegrowthofthe ChristianmythsduringtheRomanEmpirewaspossibleonlybecauseprintingwasnotyetinvented.Preciselythe contrary.Thedailypressandthetelegraph,whichinamomentspreadinventionsoverthewholeearth,fabricate moremyths(andthebourgeoiscattlebelieveandenlargeuponthem)inonedaythancouldhaveformerlybeen doneinacentury."13 Whentothepressandtelegraphisaddedthecontemporaryglobalroleofradioand television,andtoreligionareaddedcontemporaryideologies,Marx'sobservationsbecomeevenmorepertinent. Inadditionto developmentsconnectedwiththemeansofdisseminationandthepaceoftechnologically inducedsocialchange,anotherfactorisatwork.Intheviewofmanyconcernedpeople,especiallyamongthe youngergeneration,thefusionofreligionsorideologieswithinstitutionshasresultedinbureaucraticrigidityas wellasdistortioninvalues.Thelongtraditionofinstitutionalizedreligion'sconcentrationontheinnermanhas promptedsocialpassivityanddefacto indifferencetoconcretehumandilemmas, inspiteofstatedcommitments tohumanitarianismthemorecontemporaryideologicalpreoccupationwithmobilizingtheexternalmanhas resultedinpoliticalsystemswhosepracticerefutesthemoralsignificanceoftheiroftenproclaimedhumanitarian objectives.Ifinthefirstcasethespiritualelevationofmanhaspermittedhissocialdeprivation,inthesecondthe assertionofman'ssocialprimacyhasprecipitatedhisspiritualdegradation.

InstitutionalMarxism
Moreover,manypeoplefeelthatbothontheexternal,environmentallevelofhumanexistenceandon theinner,contemplativeone,currentinstitutionalizedbeliefsnolongerprovideadequateresponsesto contemporaryproblems.DespitetheintellectualadvancethatMarxismrepresentsinourthinking,itdoesnot sufficeasthesolebasisformeaningfulcomprehensionofourreality.Discoveriesinmodernscience,advances inthestudyofthehumanpsyche,andevencontemporarysocioeconomicdevelopmentscannolongerbe satisfactorilyinterpretedbyexclusiverelianceontheMarxistframework.Atthesametime,theneglectofthe spiritualelementandtherenewedsearchforthetruenatureofinnermanasearchmademoreurgentbecause ofscientificdevelopmentsconcerningthenatureofthehumanbrainandpersonalityhavefurtherexposedthe limitationsofMarxismasthesolebasisfordefiningthemeaningofhumanexistence. ThatlimitationisaccentuatedbythelinkbetweenMarxistideasandinstitutionsintheformof bureaucraticanddogmaticcommunistparties.PreciselybecauseMarxismasabodyofideasandasasocio economicmethodhasbecomesomuchapartoftheWesternintellectualheritage,itsintellectualvitalityandpo liticalsignificancethelatterconceivedofinbroadtermsasasourceofinfluenceforsocialprogramsno longerdependonanorganizationofzealots.Suchorganizationwasneededtoproselytize,toseizepower,and toholdit.SpecificRussianconditionsled totheLeninistformulationofthehistoricalutilityofsuchapartyand oftheabsolutenecessityofsubordinatingtheindividualtoit. Subsequently,thebureaucraticelementsthatunavoidablygainedcontrolovertheorganizationonceit hadcometopowernaturallytendedtoputahigherpriorityonthe organizationthanontheideasthatthe 35

organizationwassupposedtoupholdand,presumably,tonourish.Asaresult,theexistenceofcommunist partieshascometobeaneffectiveimpedimenttothefurtheracceptanceanddevelopmentofMarxistthought. Theparties'bureaucraticorganization,theirinherentconcernfortheirinstitutionalvestedinterestsevenatthe expenseoftheMarxistdoctrinethattheyaresaidtoembodytheirfearofintellectualexploration,allhave cumulativelystimulatedbothoppositionontheoutsideandideologicalsterilityontheinside. CharacteristicofthissterilityisthestrikingfactthattheSovietcommunistpartyhasnotproduceda single creativeandinfluentialMarxistthinkerinthefiftyyearssinceitseized powerin1917.(Moreover,its leadingintellectuallights,thebeginningsofwhosecreativityantedated1917,werephysicallyliquidatedunder Sovietrule.)Thisisremarkable,consideringthesignificanceofficiallyattachedto"creative"MarxismLeninism bythefirstcommunistpartyevertohavecometopower.ElsewhereprobingandinfluentialMarxist philosophersGeorgeLukacs,ErnstBloch,AdamSchaff,orLeszekKolakowskihaveinvariablyeithercome intosharpconflictwithpartydisciplineorhaveeventuallybeendrivenoutoftheparty. AslongasMarxismwasanisolatedschoolofthought,thepartycouldserveasaneffectivemechanism forcarryingittothemassesand,moregenerally,astheselfappointedagentofhistory,thedirectionofwhich Marxismclaimedtohavecorrectlyidentified.ButonceMarxismhadbecomepartoftheworld'shistoric mainstream,toinsistonitsseparate,institutionalidentityandexclusivitywastodiminishitsinfluenceandto stifleitscreativity.Yetthatispreciselywhatthecommunistpartieshavecontinuedtodo,andtheCommunist Party oftheSovietUnionhasevenextendedthatclaimbyassertingitsrighttopassonthecorrectnessofother parties'interpretations. Theresulthasbeenincreasingindifferencetodoctrineamongthegeneralmembershipandincreasing disaffectionamongthemorecreativeMarxistthinkers.Thisisnottosaythatsocialistideashavebecome discredited.Onthecontrary,eveninEasternEurope,wherecommunismhashadtocompetewithantiSoviet nationalism,theadmittedlylimitedandveryfragmentarydataavailableonpublicattitudesindicatethat socialismbroadlyconceivedofasanattempttocreateamorejustsocietythroughpublicwelfare,massaccess toeducation,socialservices,publicownershipoftheprincipalmeansofproduction,andsocialegalitarianism * haswidepopularsupport,whereascommunismasaninstitutionalizedbeliefhasnot. Similarly,intheWest mostnonsocialistpartiesnowacceptthewelfaresociety asdesirableand normal,thoughnotnecessarily requiringextensivenationalization.TheCatholicChurchexpressedmuchthesamepointofviewinthe remarkablepapalencyclical"MateretMagistra"(1961). Accordingly,"institutionalMarxism,"orcommunism,nolongerconfrontsanintellectualrealitythatis hostileeithertoitssocialaspirationsoreventosomeoftheunderlyingassumptions.Itnolongerfacesaworld thatintellectuallyrejectsMarxismthatis,avirginterritorytobeattackedbyzealousmissionariescollectively organized.Bythesametoken,theonlyhistoricalfunctionoftheclosedLeninisttypepartynowappearstobeto helpcommunistswhoareinpowertostayinpower.Asaresult,aMarxistthinkercannolongerbeacommunist ifhewishestoremainathinker. ThatLeninistlinkbetweenideasandpowerwithalltheinherentrestraintsandpredispositionstoward dogmatismthatitinvolvesdrivesawayfromcommunismboththe"truthseeking"andthe"efficiencyseeking" 14 intellectuals. Theformergroup typicallythephilosophers,humanists,andwritersreactsagainstthe excessiveconcernwiththeexternal,activemanitseekstorestoreandrenewconcernwiththeinnermeaningof lifeandtoconfrontsuchsociopsychicphenomenaasalienationitalsoseesabasicincompatibilitybetweenthe questforpersonalfreedomthatMarxismissaidtoembodyandMarxism'sinstitutionalizationasasystemof power.Themostarticulateandmovingcondemnationsofthesystemhaveusuallycomefromthisgroup.Innon communistcountries,thisgroupalsocontainsmuchofwhathascometobecalledthe"NewLeft,"whichis intellectuallypreoccupiedwiththe"larger"questionsconcerningtheindividual.CohnBendittheradicalleader 15 oftheFrenchstudentsin1968characteristicallyreservedhissharpestbarbsfortheFrenchCommunistParty. Anotherthreattotheestablishedlinkbetweenideologyandinstitutionisthechallengefromthe "efficiencyseeking"intellectualstypicallytheeconomists,thescientists,andthenewmanagers.Theyare primarilyconcernedwithsocioeconomicefficiency,andtheyseeintheelevationofdogmasandinthesub ordinationofideastoinstitutionswiththeresultingconservativedogmatismamajorimpedimenttopositive
*

DatatothateffectcomefrompollstakenbothwithinagivencountryandamongEasternEuropeantravelerstotheWest.Thus,ina1961 pollconductedinWarsawamonguniversitystudents,2percentidentifiedthemselvesas"definitelyMarxist"inoutlookand16percentas "onthewhole,yes."Onemayassumethatthesetwocategorieswouldrepresenttheupperlimitofstudentwillingnesstoaccepttheofficial ideology,althoughmanyamongthe16percentpresumablywouldrebelagainstexcessivepartyorthodoxy27.5percentsaid"definitelyno" and31percent"onthewhole,no"tothequestion"DoyouconsideryourselfaMarxist?"Atthesametime,however,28.1percentexpressed thedefinitedesiretoseetheworld"evolvetowardsomeformofsocialism"and44.5percentresponded"onthewhole,yes,"foratotalof 72.6percentexpressingageneralizedpreferenceforsocialism(EastEurope,April1966,p.19). Thegapbetweenthegeneralizedacceptanceofsocialismandtheselfidentificationas Marxistsisprobablyagoodmeasureofthedistinction madeabove. Similarly,inasampleof490PolishvisitorstotheWestin1960(peoplewhoweresubsequently returning toPoland),61percentdefined communismasabadidea,badlycarriedout,"while14percentfeltthatitwas"agoodidea,badlycarriedout."Theoverwhelmingmajority however,endorsedpostwarprogramsprovidingforawelfarestate,educationforall,agrarianreform,andnationalizationofheavyindustry (Some AspectsoftheSocialPsychologicalandPoliticalClimateinPoland,AudienceResearchSurvey,RadioFreeEurope,Munich,1961, pp.21,24).Asimilarpollconductedamong119Hungariansyielded73percentand8percent,respectively,andagaintherewas considerableendorsementofthemeasuresadoptedafterWorldWarII(PoliticalAttitudesandExpectationsof119Hungarians, Audience, pp.38,43).

36

socialchange.Lessconcernedwiththeinnerman,morepreoccupiedwithsatisfyingthedemandsoftheexternal man,theydonotposeaheadonchallengetothesystem.Butbecausetheirattackisobliqueandbecausethe attackersthemselvesarebecomingbothmorenumerousandsociallymoreindispensabletoanindustrialsociety theirchallengeismoredifficulttosuppress.Thetruthseekersconfrontheadoninthecaseofweaker,more disorganizedsystemstheyhaveoccasionallybeensuccessful,onlytobelatercrushedbytheapplicationof superiorpower.Theefficiencyseekersdpnotconfronttheyseektoerode.Boththeirsuccessesandtheir defeatsseeninthecycleofcommunisteconomicreformsandsubsequentretreatsarelessvisible,less extensive,butperhapsmoretangible. Atsomepoint,however,eventheefficiencyorientedgroupwillhavetoaddressitselftothemorebasic questionsconcerningthenatureofmanandthepurposeofsocialexistence.Untilitdoesso,there isalwaysthe likelihoodthattherulingelitecanatleasttemporarilysucceedincompartmentalizingthescientificcommunity, inextractingitstalents,andincorruptingitwithasystemofrewardsallthewhilereservingtoitselfthe definitionofthelargerobjectives. Consciousofthisdangerandreactingagainstthedogmaticbureaucratictradition,contemporary Marxistphilosophershavebeeninclinedtoasserttheprimacyofhumanreasonandconscienceovervested organizationalinterestsandto pointouttheinescapablelimitationsofanyideologicalframeworkonemayapply toreality.LeszekKolakowski,writingin1956,reflectedawidespreadmoodwhenheattackedthedegraded notionof'Marxist"asnolongermeaning"apersonwhorecognizesadefinite,meaningfulviewoftheworld,but apersonofadefiniteintellectualmakeupwhoisdistinguishedbyhisreadinessto recognizetheviews establishedinstitutionally."16 Rejecting"institutionalMarxism,"Kolakowskiassertedthatpartyinterferencein scientificpursuitsis,bydefinition,unMarxist,sinceitcontradictstheessenceofMarxism:adeliberate, scientific,andrationalinquiryaimingattheclosestapproximationofthetruth.Inasimilarvein,Yugoslav philosophersassociatedwiththeZagrebphilosophicaljournalPraxisamagazinenotedforitsinsistencethat "Marxism"and"institutionaltruth"arecontradictoryterms ridiculedtheviewsofaSovietphilosopherwho had"assertedthattheParty'sCentralCommitteeformedthebestsolutionstothemostimportanttheoretical questions,includingphilosophicalonesinhisopinion,themostimportantphilosophicaltasktodayis'the amalgamationofallforceswithinthesocialistcamp.'"InresponsetotheSovietviewaYugoslavphilosopher notedthat"theresolutionspassedbytheCentralCommitteearenophilosophywhatsoever."17 MorefundamentalstillhasbeenthechallengetothenotionthatMarxismasascienceofhistory providesbothpracticalandethicalguidestothefuture.Themorecriticalrevisionistsandthemoreoutspoken opponentsofthefusionofMarxistthoughtandaLeninisttypepartyhavechallengedthatpremiseaswell. Kolakowskiputitparticularlyeloquently: Aphilosophyofhistoryworthyofconsiderationdescribesonlywhathasexisted,thepast,andnotthe creativefutureofthehistoricalprocess.Forthisreason,thosewhowishtosubordinatetheirownengagementin futureprocessestothepronouncementsofthephilosophyofhistoryareonlytouristswhowritetheirnameson thewallsofdeadcities.Everybodycan,ifhewishes,interprethimselfhistoricallyanddiscoverthedeterminants towhichhewassubjectinthepast.Buthecannotdosowithrespecttotheselfhehasnotyetbecome.He cannotdeducehisownfuturedevelopmentfromthepronouncementsofthephilosophyofhistoryinwhichhe trusts.Toworksuchamiraclewouldmeantobecometheirrevocablepastoneselfthatis,tocrosstheriverof 18 deathwhich,thepoetsays,nooneeverseestwice. EvenrelativelyorthodoxMarxistthinkerssuchasAdamSchaffwhohaveactivelydefendedthe fusionofideasandinstitutionshaveeventuallyhadtoconfrontthechoicebetweenintellectualsubordinationto institutionalloyaltyandintellectualintegrityattheexpenseofgoodstandingintheparty.Inbelatedlyoptingfor thelatter,Schafffreelyconcededthathisownthinkingcouldnolongerbeconfinedtotheconservative, dogmaticandhenceinstitutionaldefinitionofMarxismandthathenow hadtoacknowledgethathismore developedunderstandingofthesociologyofMarxismrequiredrelianceonnonMarxistperspectivesand 19 insights. Ameredecadeearlier,Schaffhadstillbeenoneofthemosteffectiveorthodoxcriticsofviews expoundedbyhisfellowPole,Kolakowski,bytheEastGermanWolfgangHarich,andbytheYugoslav * revisionists. IthasbeensaidearlierthatMarxism,disseminatedonthepopularlevelintheformofcommunism, representedamajoradvanceinman'sabilitytoconceptualizehisrelationshiptohisworld.Itendedanepochin man'shistorythatmightbecalledthatofhistoricalunconsciousness.Itgavemanasenseofthesocialdynamic andstimulatedaconsciousconcernwithit.Inspiteofitsmaterialisticdeterminism,itcarriedandthatwasthe sourceofmuchofitsappealanessentiallyethicalmessage.Itdidsoonthebasisofadoctrinethatassertedthat itwasderivedfromatotallyrationalmethodofinquiry.Itssuccess,therefore,helpedtostimulateareaction againsttruthsderivedfromseeminglyirrationalbeliefsandagainstinstitutionsassertingamonopolyonthe truth.Butthatwhichwasnecessarytohelpterminatetheageofhistoricalunconsciousnessespeciallyona popularlevelbecamecounterproductiveintheageofscience,rapiddissemination,andacceleratingchange. Initiallytheideologyofanarrowlybased,weak,andrelativelyisolatedintellectualclassthataspiredto
*

Foranotherexampleamongmany,seetheDecember1968issueofPartelet(theHungarianpartyjournal),containingacommuniqueonthe expulsionfromtheBudapestPhilosophicalInstituteofseveralHungarianphilosophers,someofwhomhadadvocateda"pluralist"conceptof Marxism.

37

harnessbothhistoryandthepopularmasses,institutionalizedMarxism hasbecometheofficialdoctrineof nonintellectualbureaucratswhoaresupportedbymillions(roughlytenpercentoftheadultpopulationinmost communistcountries)forwhomformalmembershipismoreoftenanexpressionofconservativesocial orthodoxyorprofessionalopportunismthananideologicaloranintellectualcommitment.Tobuttressan institutionfromwhichthecreativeintellectualcontentisincreasinglydrained,thepresidingofficialshavemore andmoretakenrefugeinstatenationalismastheprincipalemotionalbondwiththemasses.Theeffect paradoxicalandcruelinitshistoricalironyistomakecommunisminpowerincreasinglyreliantonthe 20 unconsciousandtheemotionalfactorswhichMarxismhadsoughttosupersede.

OrganizedChristianity
Equallydramatic,thoughdifferentinsubstance,istheproblemconfrontedtodaybyestablished religions,especiallyChristianity.Unlikecommunism,contemporaryChristianityisnolongerasystemofpower itstemporalauthorityisnotonlylimitedbutshrinking.Ontheotherhand,itisbothasystemofdoctrinesandan institution,particularlyinitsCatholicexpression.Thetensionbetweenthebeliefsandtheinstitutionisancient, oftenpainful,historyfortheChurch,buttheproblemhasbeengivenanewdimensionbytheeffortsinitiatedby PopesJohnXXIIIandPaulVI,andexpressedbytheSecondEcumenicalCouncil(VaticanII),toreinvigorate 21 theChurch. Theseeffortsaretakingplaceinasettingthatsimultaneouslyinvolvesbothunprecedentedinterest onthepartofconcernedChristians(notonlyCatholics)andwidespreadevidenceofincreasingindifferenceto theprescribedreligiousforms.Inotherwords,thereisbothmassiveinvolvementinchange,whichmeansthat theofficialguardiansoftheinstitutioncannotfullycontrolit,anduncertaintyconcerningthebestwaystomake theChurchagaintrulyrelevant,withoutdilutingitsspiritualidentity. ThefundamentaldilemmaconfrontedbytheChurch,inthewordsofUnamuno, isthat"Catholicism oscillatesbetweenmysticism,whichistheinwardexperienceofthelivingGodinChrist,anintransmittable experience,thedangerofwhich,however,isthatitabsorbsourownpersonalityinGod,andsodoesnotsaveour vitallongingbetweenmysticismandtherationalismwhichitfightsagainstitoscillatesbetweenreligionized 22 scienceandscientificizedreligion." Tooptforoneistobedeprivedoftheother.Yetneitherwilldobyitself: mysticismwouldmeanwithdrawalfromthecontemporaryworldscientismwouldmeanabsorptionbyit. ThisisanolddilemmafortheChurch,andithasbeenposedandansweredindifferentwaysatdifferent historicalstages."MateretMagistra"andVaticanIIoccurringinanageshapedbyideologicalconflict, scientificinnovation,masspopularawakening,politicalpassion,andreligiousquiescencecanbeviewedasan efforttosatisfythreebroadobjectives:first,toupdatetheChurch'sinstitutionalstructure,sothatitisnotan impedimenttothevitalityoftheideologicalcomponent(touseatermappliedthroughoutthechapter)andso thattheinstitutionalizedbeliefsagainbecomemeaningfultoboththeinnerandexternaldimensionsofhuman lifesecond,bettertofocustheenergiesoftheChurchasawholeonsocialproblemsthatrangefrompersonal povertyandsocialinjusticetointernationalinequalityand,finally,tohealdoctrinalsplitswithinChristianity andendtheeraofbigotryandconflictbetweenChristianityandnonChristianreligions. TheeffortpreciselybecauseitdidmovetheChurchsomewhatinthedesireddirectionsproduced newstrainsintherelationshipbetweenideasandinstitutions.Institutionalreform,conductedatatimewhen pressuresfortheological adjustmentshaveincreasinglycomefromtheChurchhierarchyitself(asinthecaseor communism,thesepressureshavemoreoftencomefromtheperipherythanfromthecenter:whatYugoslavia hasbeentotheKremlintheNetherlandshasbecometotheVatican!),haspromptedaprofoundcrisisofpapal authority.PopePaul'sreiterationofthebanonartificialcontraception(in"HumanaeVitae,"1968),whichcame shortlyaftertheadoptionbyVaticanIIoftheconceptofcollegialityinChurchaffairs,provokedstrongnegative reactionsfromvariousnationalCouncilsofBishopsthesereactionsinturnpromptedthePontifftowarnagainst "attitudeswhichdepartedmorethanalittlefromthetraditionaldoctrineoftheChurchandmenacedorderinthe * bosomof theChurchherself." 23 YettheVaticancouldnotstiflethetheologicalunrest.AlmostechoingthedemandsofMarxist philosophersforanunfetteredMarxistdialogue,Catholictheologians(notablyinapublicstatementreleasedin December1968byfortyoftheleadingtheologians)denouncedeffortsbytheVaticanCuriatoresolve theologicalissuesbyadministrativefiat.Theyassertedtheirrighttocompletefreedomofinquiry,subjecttono institutionallimitationswhatever. Theincreasedemphasis onsocialquestionsarticulatedwithcompassionin"MateretMagistra" presentedadifferentchallenge.Intenseinvolvementintheaffairsoftheworld,andparticularlyinthestruggle againstsocialinjustice,couldnothelpbutfocustheattentionof theChurchonexternalman,oftenplacingthe Churchindirectcompetitionwithsocialistorcommunistmovements.Younger,moresociallyinvolved CatholicssawinthatcompetitionespeciallyinLatinAmericatheonlypossiblesalvationfortheChurch's missionconservativesfearedthetransformationoftheChurchintomerelyanothertemporalradicalmovement. Particularlybitterwastheconflictinthoseareaswheretheissuehadimmediaterelevance,suchasnortheast 24 Brazil. There,aselsewhere,conservativesfeltthatwhattheChurchwouldgainintheshortrunwouldcostit
*

ThePopewasnotaloneinfacingthisquandary.TheNewYorkTimesofJanuary16,1969,reported thatDr.EugeneCarsonBlake,general secretaryoftheWorldCouncilofChurches,discussed"thecrisisofauthority"withPopePaulVI.ItcitedDr.Blakeashavingsaid,"Wefind ourselvesfacingthesameissuesinboththeWorldCouncilandinthememberchurches."

38

toomuchinthelongrun:socialrelevancewouldbegainedatthecostoflossofidentity.Moregenerally,they arguedthatsocialsuccessnolessthaneconomicsuccesscouldbedetrimentaltospiritualvalues.Itmaybe * assumedthatfromtheirpointofviewtheexperienceofProtestantismintheUnitedStateswasnotreassuring. Ecumenismalsopromptedbothinstitutionalanddoctrinaltension.Puristsfearedthatitwould acceleratethedilutionofdoctrinalcontentandtransformtheCatholicChurchinthemoreadvancedcountries intoavagueethicalorganizationengaged,togetherwithothersimilarbodies,insocialgoodworks.Evenmore perplexingtothepuristswastheappearanceofan"ecumenical"dialoguebetweenChristiansandcommunists,in whichCatholicstookanactivepart.Thatsuchadialoguecoulddevelop,eventhoughitreceivedrelativelylittle notice,wasitselfproofoftheextent towhichexclusivisticclaimstoabsolutetruththoughnotformally abandonedbyeithersidenolongerdominatedeithertheWesternmindoreventhoseinstitutionsthatwere themselvestheproductsoftheManichaeantradition. Itwould,however,bemisleadingtoconstruethisdialogue asafundamentalbreakthroughinthe doctrinalrelationshipbetweenChristianityandMarxism.Theparticipantsinvolvedwereindividualswho,given theirintellectualconcerns,themselvesreflectedthetensionbetweeninstitutionsandideastheyinherently resentedinstitutionaleffortstolimitthescopeofphilosophicalinquiry.Bothsidesthusrepresentedthe intellectualfringesandnottheverycentersofbureaucraticpower.Thecentersthemselvesdisplayedsome ambivalence,notsomuchaboutthe meetingswhichtheytolerated,inpart,forreasonsofpoliticaltactics but aboutthedegreetowhichdifferencesbetweenthetwosystemsofthoughtweresaidtohavebeenobscuredby therespectivespokesmen. Theselimitationsnotwithstanding,thediscussions,whichdoubtlesswillcontinueandexpand,had broadsignificance.They indicatedthatitisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttoconfinethesearchforamore meaningfuluniversalvisionwithininstitutionallydefinedframeworks,sincetheveryexistenceofthein stitutions,dependsonthemaintenanceoftheirdistinctiveandexclusiveidentity.Thatiswhywhatappearson thesurfacetobemodestandlimitedhasinfactbeenamajorstepawayfromthetraditionalWesternviewof 25 suchdialogueas anathema. ThereformsandthedebateswithinCatholicismhavealreadyhadtheeffect,inmanyareasofpersonal life,ofsupplantingtheauthorityoftheinstitutionbytheruleofone'sconscience.(Such,forexample,hasbeen thereactionofmanybishopsandCatholiclaymentotheissueofbirthcontrol.)Toaspirituallymotivated person,consciencecanbeastricterteacherthanChurchauthority,butformostpeoplerelianceonconscience inescapablyhastheeffectofmakingtheChurchincreasinglyirrelevant.Itwasthisdilemmawhichmoreand moreledPopePaulVItoadoptapositioninspiteofhisearliercommitmenttoinnovation moldedbythe needforinstitutionaldefense:"Today,asanyonecansee,orthodoxy,thatisthepurityofdoctrine,doesnotseem tooccupyfirstplaceinthepsychologyofChristians.Howmanythings,howmanytruthsarequestionedandput uptodoubt?HowmuchlibertyisclaimedasregardstheauthenticheritageofCatholicdoctrine,notonlyin orderto...betterexplainittothemanofourtime,butattimestosubjectittothatrelativisminwhichprofane thought...seeksitsnewexpression,ortoadaptit...tocontemporarytasteandthereceivingcapacityofmodern mentality?"26 ThePopewasrightinnotingthat"orthodoxy...doesnotseemtooccupyfirstplaceinthepsychology
*

"Protestantismhasbecomesoidentifiedwitheconomicsuccess,respectability,andmiddleclassvirtuesthatlargenumbersoftheclergy andlaityalikeappeartohavelostsightofbasicspiritualgoals"(GerhardLenski,TheReligiousFactor,GardenCity,N.Y.,1963,p.352). "Withoutus,Communists,IfearthatyourChristianlove,marvellousthoughitis,willcontinuetobeineffectivewithoutyou,Christians, ourstrugglerisksagainconfinementtoahorizonwithoutstars"(RogerGaraudy,asquotedby heMonde(Hebdomadaire), May511,1966). ThesewordsofaleadingFrenchCommunistideologue,onceastrongStalinistandamemberofthePolitburo,addressingamixedChristian MarxistcolloquiumorganizedbytheCatholics,conveytheextenttowhichpreviouslyfrozenviewsaretodayinflux.Ofthemanymeetings betweenChristiansandMarxists,perhapsthemostsignificanthavebeenthoseorganizedbythePaulusGesellschaft,startinginSalzburgin 1965,followedbymeetingsinHerrenchiemseein1966(wheretheaboveremarkwasmade)andinMarianskeLazne,Czechoslovakia,in 1967.ThethirdmeetingbroughttogethertwohundredandoneChristianandMarxistphilosophers,theologians,andscientistsfromsixteen EuropeancountriesandtheUnitedStates(butnotfromtheSovietUnion,whichchosetoabstain).' Thethemeofthethirdmeetingwas"CreativityandFreedominaHumanSociety"(thefirsttwohavingdealtwith"ChristianityandMarxism Today"and"ChristianHumanenessandMarxistHumanism").Atthismeetingbothsidesexpressedtheviewthatthehumanpersonalitycan developonlyinasettingoffreedomthatbothChristianityandMarxismmustrevitalizeandopenuptheirinstitutionsandtheirdoctrines thatthehumanpersonalitycannotbefullyunderstoodontheexistentialandparticularlythemateriallevelthatthestateoughttobeneutral onethicalandphilosophicalproblemsandthathumanistMarxismmustguaranteepluralismasthepreconditionforhumanfreedomand, finally,thatbothChristianityandMarxisminvolveacontinuous,neverendingsearchforthemostcompletefulfillmentofhumanfreedom. (TheaboveisaparaphraseoftheconclusionsreachedbyCharlesAndrasinhisresearchpaperon"ChristiansandMarxistsinMarianske Lazne,"RFE,July10,1967,whichcontainsthebestanalysisofthismeetingthatIhaveseen.SeealsothevaluablestudybyKevinDevlin, "TheCatholicCommunist'Dialogue,'"ProblemsofCommunism, MayJune1966,andespeciallytheadditionalmaterialonLatinAmerica containedintheSpanisheditionandCharlesAndras,"TheChristianMarxistDialogue," EastEurope, March1968.) Oneoutgrowthofthisdialoguewasaremarkablelittlevolumedealingwiththephilosophicalandsocialproblemsofmodernity,authored jointlybyaleaderoftheFrenchCommunistPartyandbyamemberoftheSocietyofJesus(RogerGaraudyandQuentinLauer,S.J.,A ChristianCommunistDialogue, NewYork,1968). Subsequenttothemeetings,therewerereaffirmationsfrombothsides,e.g.,bytheleadershipoftheFrenchCommunistParty,bythe FrenchCouncilofBishops,andbyVaticanspokesmen,thatthedialoguecouldnotbeconstruedasinvolvinganychangeinbasicdoctrinal attitudes.Inasense,thesestatementsconfirmedthepointmadebyoneofthemoreprominentCatholicparticipantsthatatruedialoguewill notbepossibleuntileachsidesurmountsthetraditionof"monolithism,"whichelevatesboththe"ecclesiasticalsociety"andthepartyinto thecentersofhistory(FatherGiulioGirardioftheSalesianUniversityofRome,ascitedby LeMonde[Hebdomadaire], May511,1966he repeatedthesamethemesatMarianskeLazne[Andras,"TheChristianMarxistDialogue,"p.13]).

39

ofChristians."Thisissonotonlyonthelevelofformal,overtcompliancewithcertainestablishedritualsbut eveninregardtothemorebasicsubstanceofbelief,asisshownbyTable8,constructedfrom1968Galluppolls. Therelativelylowlevelofregularchurchattendancewhilesignificantinrevealingincreasingdisregardforthe mostbasicbutalsotheminimalritualisticrequirementwasnotasrevealingasthestrikinggapbetweenthose whobelieveinGodandthosewhobelieveinlifeafterdeath.TheessenceoftheChristianfaithisthattheformer guaranteesthelatter.GodwithoutbeliefinlifeafterdeathissomethingentirelydifferentfromtheChristianGod. Thepolldata,thoughfragmentaryandsuperficial,neverthelesshighlightaproblem.Ontheonehand, thepollindicatesacrisisofinstitutionalizedbelief.Ontheotherhand,however,itsuggeststhatitwouldbe misleadingtoconcludethatlowchurchattendanceanddisbeliefinlifeafterdeathmeanpervasiveirreligiosity. Onthecontrary,itsuggeststhatauthenticirreligiositythatistosay,adeeplyfeltrejectionofarealitybeyond thefinitedoesnotexist,oratleastnotyet.AbeliefinGod towhichonecannotgivesubstancemaymerelybe aholdoverfromamoretraditionalsocietyinacontextthatemphasizesimmediatelife,butitcouldalsoreflect thesearchforahighlypersonal,inner,anddirectrelationshipbetweentheindividualandGod.

PrivatizationofBelief
Infact,thewaningoftheChurchasaninstitutionmaybeasymptomofintensifyingreligiosity.The ChurchwasanecessaryintermediarybetweenGodandmaninthephaseofman'sspiritualpovertyandhistorical unawareness.It providedarigidcodeofbehavior,institutionalizedsanctions(whichgraduallydeclinedin severityasmankindwassocializedonthelevelofpersonal,thoughnotinternational,coexistence),andalinkto theeternal.AstheChurchfades,forsomethedisintegrationofitscontrolswilldoubtlessmeanlicenseformany itwillsimplybeamatterofindifferencebutforothersitwillbethebeginningofamuchmoredirect,more personal,lessritualizedrelationshiptoGod. Thiscouldmeantheemergence ofhighlypluralisticreligiousresponsesofcults,sects,believers' groups,eachwithasomewhatdifferentformofexpressingitsfaith,tosaynothingofamuchmorepersonalized 27 formofworshipevenwithintheCatholicChurch. FormostpeopletheorganizedChurchwillcontinueto providethebasicmooring,butformanytherelationshiptoGodwillbeexpressedmuchmoreindividuallyandin keepingwiththeirspecificintellectualandpsychologicalneeds.ThepopularityofTeilharddeChardinis,for example,symptomaticofourage'sfeltneedtocombineecstasywithscience,mysticbeliefwithknowledgeof * thematerialworld. ThepresentfermentinChristianityishencepartofthegeneralaversiontowardtheinstitutionalized beliefthatcharacterizesourtime.Thisaversionreflectsthenatureofourintellectualstyleand TABLE8 Doyouattend Doyoubelieve Doyoubelievein churchonce inGod? lifeafterdeath? perweek? Yes Yes Yes 98% 73% 43% 96 57 28(Athens) 89 42 24 85 84 83 81 79 77 73 73 60 38 5 55 41 5 38 35 54 38 38 30 5 27 42 25 14 9

UnitedStates Greece Uruguay (cities) Austria Switzerland Finland WestGermany Netherlands GreatBritain France Norway Sweden

AFrenchthinkerposestheissuemorestrongly,emphasizingtheinterdependenceofscienceandecstasy:"Wemustconcludethatitisfar fromaccidentalthatecstaticphenomenahavedevelopedtothegreatestdegreeinthemosttechnicizedsocieties.Anditistobeexpected that thesephenomenawillcontinuetoincrease.Thisindicatesnothinglessthanthesubjectionofmankind'snewreligiouslifetotechnique.Itwas formerlybelievedthattechniqueandreligionwereinoppositionandrepresentedtwototallydifferentdispensations.Itwasheldthat,withthe developmentofapurelymaterialisticsociety,astrugglewasinevitablebetweenthemachineandtheeconomy,ontheoneside,andtheideal realmofreligion,art,andculture,ontheother.Butwecannolongerholdsuchaboundlesslysimplisticview.Ecstasyissubjecttotheworld oftechniqueandisitsservant.Technique,onthemostsignificantlevel,integratestheanarchicandantisocialimpulsesofthehumanbeing intosociety.Theseimpulsestaketheirinfluenceandreceivetheirdiffusionstrictlybyvirtueofthetechnicalmeansbroughtintoplay.The ecstaticphenomenaofthehumanpsyche,whichwithouttechnicalmeanswouldnaveremainedcompletelywithouteffect,aredeployed throughouttheworld"(Ellul,p.423).

40

thefragmentedandimpressionisticwayweourselvesbecomeexposedtoreality,aswellastheinstinctive feelingthatideasareonlyrelevantaslongastheycansuccessfullyrelatetoarealitythatisdynamic.To institutionalizeanideaistoimpedeitscapacitytoadjusttochange.Thefurtherevolutionoftheideathen becomesdependentnotonthecapacityofthemindtosensethespeedandthesignificanceofchangebutonthe rateofchangewithinthebureaucraticorganizationwhichhascometoembodytheidea.Vestedpowerinterests thusbecomemoreimportantthaneitherethicalorintellectualimperatives. Thecrisisofinstitutionalizedbeliefsisthelaststageintheprogressivesecularizationoflifethatis,in thedetachmentofone'ssocialexistencefromaframeworkofbelief.Work,play,andnow,increasingly, 28 introspectionhavegraduallyseparatedthemselvesfromformalChristianbelief, andtheyarebeginningto detachthemselvesfromMarxismundercommunismaswell. Itwaseasiertoestablishinstitutionalbeliefinanageofgeographical,culturalandhencealso psychologicalisolation.Religiousfanaticismcouldthriveinsuchacontext,andreligiouswarshadprofound moralmeaning.Physicalexhaustion(aftertheThirtyYearsWarandaftertheBattleofViennaof1683)aswell asgrowingskepticismhavemadereligiouswarsunfashionable.Inouragecommunismhasbeenthelastgreat absolutistdogma,foritcouldusepowertoassureexclusiveness.ItisnotaccidentalthatisolatedChinahaslately beenitsmostfanaticproponent orthatideologicalconservatisminthecommuniststatesisusually accompaniedbyeffortstocutsocietyofffromcontactwiththeexternalworldbyradiojammingandother * devices. Globalcongestionthoughnotnecessarilyconducivetomutualcomprehensionissimplyinimicalto institutionsandideologiesrelyingonexclusivisticconviction. Ideally,inthissettingmanshouldseekcomplete fulfilmentbycombiningspiritualintrospectionwith themoralimperativeofsocialjustice.HarveyCoxargues inhisthoughtfulbookthat"ifmenratherthan metaphysicalphantomsbearthemeaningofhistoriclife,thenpurposesotherthanthoseofone'sownclancanbe appreciatedratherthanrepudiated.Separateworldviewspresenttheoccasionnotformutualdestructionbutfor fashioningasocietalframeworkwithinwhichsuchvariancecanbeencouragedandnourished.Ideallythe secularcityissuchasociety.Itprovidesasettinginwhichahodgepodgeofhumanpurposesandprojectscan thrivebecauseeachrecognizesitselfasprovisionalandrelative.Authenticsecularitydemandsthatnoworld view,notradition,noideologybeallowedtobecome the officiallyenforcedworldviewbesidewhichnoothers aretolerated.Thisinturnrequirespluralisticsocialandpoliticalinstitutions."29 Theshapingoftheidealsecularcitydemandsenormoussocialmaturityandresponsibility.Italsocalls forphilosophicaldepthandasenseofrestraint,sincethetransitionfromthetraditionofdogmatothecondition ofdiversityisnoteasy.Diversityofbeliefiscertainlytheprerequisiteforfreedom,anditmayevenbethe concomitantofcreativity(thoughtheMiddleAgesaswellastheOrientargueagainstit).Butcarriedtoits extremetothepointatwhichdiversityitselfbecomesthesubstanceofbeliefitcreatesitsowndangers.The healthyreactionagainstinstitutionalizeddoctrinesisnotcompleteunlessitalsoinvolvestheformulationof alternativeprinciplesofsocialcontractandalternativeviewsof theroleoftheindividual.Fluid,fragile,and fragmentaryideascannotprovideeitherlastinginsightoranenduringbasisforaction.Popularnotions,shifting withthewind,mayaccuratelyreflecttheunderlyingpsychologicalandsocialtensionsofourrapidlychanging reality,butdotheyprovideanenduringbasiseitherforunderstandingitorformasteringit?Intellectualrela tivismmaynotsufficetomeetthechallengeofsubjectiveactivism,whichisintenselyintolerantbecauseitis derivedfrompurelypersonalcriteriaforevaluatingreality.Thisproblemnotonlyarisesinsystemsinwhich formalizedbeliefsplayadecisiverole.ItalsoconfrontstheWesternliberaldemocraticstates.These,too,depend onasymbiosisofideasandinstitutions,thoughinmuchlessformal,moreimplicitways.Theturbulence afflictingcommunismandChristianityisvisibleanddirect,withrestlessideasconfrontingunyielding institutionsthecrisisofallegiancetoliberaldemocracyismuchmoreelusivebut notlessreal.Theeffective workingofaliberaldemocraticstaterequiresacombinationofsocialdevotiontotheabstractideaofdemocracy andoflegalisminpracticethatcaneasilybestrainedbyconditionsofstressandcrisis.Ademocraticprocess, moreover,isdifficulttodramatize,incontrasttosuchnotionsasrevolution,injustice,andfreedom.Instead,it callsmoreprosaicallyforahighdegreeofproceduralcommitment:thatis,aconcernwiththemeansaswellas withtheendoftheprocess.Unlessinfusedwithnewmoralcontent,proceduralcommitmentmaynotsufficeina confrontationwithissuesthatareposedasabsolutesandthataresaidtorequirepassionratherthan procedurefortheirresolution.

3.HistrionicsasHistoryinTransition
"Werejecttheworld,wearenolongereven'traitors,'sincethiswouldimplyanaffinitywithwhatwe arebetraying.WearetheVietCongofthought....Thephilosophyoftomorrowwillbeterrorist:nota 30 philosophyofterrorismbutaterroristphilosophyalliedwithanactivepolicyofterrorism." Thesewordsofa youngSorbonnephilosopherconveythedegreetowhichemotionhascometosubstituteforreasonasaresultof thereactiontowhatmanyfeelhasbeenthefailureofrationalisminaction.The"rejection"oftheworldisin
*

Nonetheless,theseexternalcontrolsareincreasinglyincapableofmaskingtheevidentlackofcommitmentwithin.Itisrevealingtonote thatin1968,whentheantiintellectualandantiSemiticpurgeincommunistPolandcompelledsomecommunistintellectuals,untilthat momentquiteorthodoxintheirloyalty,toleavethecountry,anumberofthemimmediatelymovedtothe"capitalist"UnitedStates,seeking employmentinvariousinstitutionsspecializinginthestudyofcommunismandviewedintheEastasintrinsicallyanticommunist.

41

essencetherejectionofprevailingmodesofthoughtandthesubstitutionofecstasyandactionintheserviceof anabstractconceptofrevolution.Yesterday's"escapefromfreedom"hasitsequivalentintoday'sescapefrom reason.

EscapefromReason
Initsextremeform,thismooddramatizedbythestudentriotsinCalifornia,atColumbiaUniversity, throughoutFrance,inWestBerlin,inLondon,Rome,Belgrade,Warsaw,Tokyo,andmuchmorelethallyatthe University,ofMexico(wherescoresofstudentswerekilledinthefallof1968),tosaynothingofthemanyless publicizedimitationselsewherehaselevatedactionforaction'ssakeintoamoralprinciple."Actionistheonly 31 realitynotonlyrealitybutmorality aswell"proclaimedAbbieHoffman,theleaderoftheAmericanYippies. Hewasechoedbothmorebelligerentlyandmoreecstatically,byhisGermancounterpart,DanielCohnBendit, 32 theleaderofthe1968Frenchstudentstrikewhodeclaredthat"violenceis happiness." Astwoobservers sympathetictothenewradicalmovementsexplainedit,thecontemporaryrebels"thinkthattheivorytowered menofideashavecheatedthem,liedtothem,andthatactionandspontaneousexperiencewillshowthemthe truth."33 Fromthisattitudeisderivedtheviewthatreasonbyitselfissuspect,thatitmustbebuttressedby emotion,andthatifachoicehastobemade,emotionisabetterguidethanreason.Seeingintheworldaround thembothhypocrisyandthefailure ofreasonwithreasonintheserviceofevil,whicheithermakesitaslave ofideologyoremploysitasascientifictooltoimprovewarmakingefficiencyevenmoderatedissenters * condemnedcontemporaryliberalsfortheirlackofpassion. Incoldreasontheysaw morethanamereabsenceof moralindignation,acommitmenttothe statusquo, awillingnesstoeffectonlymarginalchange,anda determinationtoavoidconfrontingthemorebasicmoralissues. Relianceonpassionandactionhadtheaddedadvantageofnotrequiringaprogrammaticblueprint.In contrast,theoldideologiesofferedbothacritiqueofthepresentandablueprintforthefuture,thusopening themselvestocriticismonthelevelofbothpracticality(Istheirutopiaattainable?)andperformance(Whyhasn't theutopiabeenachieved?).Thepoliticsofecstasydonotrequireaprogramtogenerateaction,andtheir adherentswerethereforenotgreatlytroubledbythepatronizingcriticismoftheirprogrammaticvacuity advancedfromthe socialistoldleftandfromthe establishedcommunistparties, Onthecontrary,theyarguethat itisnotthroughinstitutionalreformsspelledoutinprogramsbutthroughthecreationofacommunityof emotionthattruefreedomcanbeattained.Bycreatingthatemotionalstate,therebelsofthelate1960shopedto overcomethesexualoppressionand"onedimensional"qualityofmodernindustrialsociety.HerbertMarcuse's OneDimensionalMan hasprovidedthemwithanintellectualframeofreference(muchasFrantzFanon'sbooks exaltingracialviolencehavedonefortherebelsinsomeareasoftheThirdWorld),thoughhisadviceandpro gramarelimited:"Forthemomenttheconcretealternativeisstillonlythenegation."34 Thecallfor"truefreedom,"however,permitsthesubversionofconventionalfreedom,andhereinlies oneofthebasiccontradictionsofthemovement.LeopoldLabedzperceptivelynotedthestrikingresemblance betweentheromanticanarchismofthecontemporarystudentrevolutionandtheviewsofMaxStirner,who assertedin1845that"apeoplecannotbefreeotherwisethanattheindividual'sexpense."35 Thus,therebellion againstthe"oppressivefreedom"oftheWestcanentailbothlimitationonthefreedomofthosewho da notshare theidealsof"true"freedomandrelativeindifferencetothesuppressionoffreedomintheEast.Moreover,the right to speakorwritefreelycanbedeniedanditsexercisedisruptedbyviolence,sincethatviolenceis motivatedbyanemotionalcommitmenttofreedomandisdesignedtoassertit.Thedefinitionoffreedomisthus derivedfromasubjectiveinnerconvictionthatoneisrightandnotfromtheexternalpatternofrelations guaranteeingchoiceandprotectiontotheindividual,whateverhisviews. Theintellectualthoughnotthesocialseriousnessofthisphenomenonwasfurtherdilutedbya certainartificialityonthelevelofpoliticalexpression.Thougheverygenuinerevolutioninescapablypartakesof thepast,itacquiresitsowndistinctivecharacter,style,andrhetoricpreciselybecauseitisarevolution:asharp breakwiththepast.TheParisCommunedifferedintheserespectsfromtheFrenchRevolution,andthe
*

InDecember1968,atamajorinternationalconferenceheldatPrincetononthesubjectofAmerica'sfuture,oneoftheaccusationsmadeby astudentleaderwasthattheestablishedliberalparticipantstendtorelyonreasonattheexpenseofpassion.ThischargepromptedArthur Schlesingertoremark,"Reasonwithoutpassionissterile,butpassionwithoutreasonishysterical.Ihavealwayssupposedthatreasonand passionmustbeunitedinanyeffectiveformofpublicaction.Icanimaginenothingworseforoursocietythanarejectionofreasoned analysisbytheyoung.Ifwesucceedindestroyingthedisciplineofreason,ifwemakepoliticsacompetitioninpassion,acompetitionin emotion,acompetitioninunreasonandviolence,thecertainoutcomewouldbethedefeatoftheleft." Thischargehasevenbeenleveledagainstscholarsengagedinstudiesofthefuture,andtheir"futurism"hasbeeninterpretedbycriticsas animmoralescapefromthe socialdilemmasofthepresent.Ithasledtosomeunconsciouslyhumoroussituations,suchastheoneatthe abovementionedPrincetonconference,whereamillionaireradicalattacked"futurists"forneglectingtheroleofwealthinAmericansociety. Sheddinghissartorialeleganceinfavorofthemorerevolutionaryopenneckedshirtuniform,heurgedtheassembledto"chooseequality andfleegreed." MaxEastmanspokeformanyoldsocialistswhenheexpressedhimselfas"kindofsorryfortheseyoungrebelstoday....Theyhavean emotionnotunlikeours....Theywanttomakearevolutionbuttheyhavenoultimatepurpose.Ihaveacertainemotionalsympathyfor them,buttheyareratherpatheticbecausetheyhavenoplan.Theyjustseekarevolution foritsownsake"(ascitedbyTheNewYorkTimes, January9,1969).Communistspokesmenexpressedthemselvesmorepungently,condemningtheaspirationsofthenewrebelsas"halfbaked piepepperedwithsexualismandnarcomania"(TrybunaLudu,May9,1968).

42

CommuneinturnwasnotreproducedbytheBolshevikRevolution.Yetinrecentyearsagreatdealofthe studentrhetoric, symbolism,andpersonal behaviour hastakentheselfconsciousformofahistrionic "happening"designedasahistoricalreenactment. AttimesitwastheFrenchRevolutionthatseemedtoprovidethescenarioespeciallyinFrancebut moreoftenitwasPetrogradandHavanathatwerebeingreenacted.Thestudentleadersimaginedthemselvesas historicalfigures,butintheirimitativenesstheyoftenvergedontheabsurd.Duringthe1968crisis atColumbia University,theleaderofthestudentmilitantsissuedapamphletbearingLenin'stitle,"WhatIstoBeDone?"and studentsoccupyingoneofthebuildingsproclaimedthemselves"acommune."TheheadquartersoftheWest Berlinmilitantswere called"Smolny."Revolutionarybeards(instylesrangingfromLenintoCastrotoMarx) andcombatfatiguesalaGuevarawerealmostmandatorycostumesagainstadecorofeitherredorblackflags. Eventheviolencewasoftenmoretheatricalthanreal.InTokyoittooktheformofstylizedbattles,in whicharmoredcombatantsemployedshieldsandspearsinParisatacitagreementbetweenthepoliceandtheir * opponentslimitedweaponstothoseusedintheStoneAge:rocks,cobblestones,andclubs. OnlyinMexicowas violencegenuineinthesensethatallavailablemeanswereemployed,asistrueinrealrevolutions. Todefinethehistoricalsignificanceoftheseevents,itisnecessarytolookbeyondtheviolenceandthe slogans,beyondthesuperficialsimilarityamongtheoutburststhatsweptsomanycitiesin50manypartsofthe worldinsoshortatime.Acloseranalysisimmediatelyrevealsanimportantdistinction:someaspectsofthe manifestationswereclearlypoliticalincharacterandpurposeothersthoughlinkedwiththepolitical,though sharingwithitacertainuniversalityofaspirations,andthoughprovidingitwithamassemotionalbasewere muchmoresociopsychologicalinoriginandvaguelymoralandethicalincontent.Linkedtogether, each tendedtoobscurethespecificcharacteroftheother.

ThePoliticalDimension
Thedistinctionbetweenthetwoisimportanttoanunderstandingofwhatwasinvolvedandofwhatit portends.Thepoliticalmanifestationsareinsomerespectseasierto dissectandanalyze.Broadlyspeaking,they fellintotwocategories.IntheWest,andparticularlyintheUnitedStates,thepoliticallymotivatedmilitants drewonboththeideologicallegacyoftheoldleft'sattackagainstcapitalistsocietyandonthemorerecentsense ofoutrageaboutthewarinVietnam.Asthe"imperialist"and"capitalist"societyparexcellence,theUnited Statesprovidedthemajortarget.Thewarservedasacatalystforemotions,asthebasisforinternationalunity amongthe youngmilitants,asabondbetweentheoldleftistsandthenew,andasalinkbetweenthepolitically mindedandtheethicallyconcerned. Thosemotivatedbystrictlypoliticalconcernsappeartohavebeenarelativelysmallminorityofthe restlessyouth,buttheyprovidedinfluentialleadership.Itwasthepoliticallymindedwhoresuscitatedthe anarchistcritiqueoforganizedsociety,whorevivedtheTrotskyitesloganofthepermanentrevolutionandit wastheywhodefinedthemorespecificallypoliticalobjectives(suchasthecallforimmediateUnitedStates withdrawalfromVietnam).Asthemovementgainedmomentumandbroadeneditsappeal,thepolitical objectivesperhapsrespondingtothelessclearlydefinedethicalandpsychologicalneedsofthe following werewidenedandbecamebothvaguerandmoredemanding.Itwasnolongeramatterofendingaparticular governmentalpolicyorofeffectingaspecificreformtheunderlying"system"capitalistincharacterandhence fundamentallyirremediablehadtobeundonebeforetruereformscouldbeachieved.Thespecificsremained
*

InallofFrancedespitetheapparenttemporarycollapseofauthorityinMay1968onlyonepersondied,andsomewhataccidentallyat that. Butthoughthestyleandtheformatofthestudentrebellionwascontrivedanditsaspirationsalmostdeliberatelyunattainable(oneofthe mostpopularslogansoftheMay1968outbreakinPariswas"Berealists,demandtheimpossible!"),atleastitsyouthfulnesswasauthentic. Thesamecannotbesaidofthemiddleagedadmirersofthemilitants,whothoughmostoftenphysicallypassiveoutdidthemselvesin theireffortstodrinkagainatthefountainofyouthbyvicariousidentificationwithyouth'sexuberance.Verbalexcesswasmostoftenthe meansusedtoattainthisidentification'.Thus,oneAmericanscholaraccusedthosecriticaloftheabusesperpetratedbysomemilitantsof literallywaging"awaragainsttheyoung,"whichhecomparedtothewarinVietnamhecalledfora"culturalrevolution"inAmerica! (RichardPoirier,"TheWaragainsttheYoung,"TheAtlantic, October1968). Casesofmiddleagedexuberancewerenotisolated phenomena.AsLabedzputit,"Therecanbelittledoubtthatinmanycases lesparentsterribles areworsethan lesenfantsterribles. Someof themhavemovedfromrevoltagainst'povertyamidstplenty'inthethirtiestoarevoltagainstaffluentsocietyinthesixties,atthetimeas theythemselvesmovedfrompovertytoaffluence,topracticealienationat50,000dollarsayear.TherevolutionaryEstablishmentofNew YorkandLondon,thrilledwithrevolutionaryprospects,anddisplayingthecharacteristic SalonMaoismus, contributestotheorgyof snobberyattendantuponthecurrentUtopianwave.Longbeforethe BlackPower'spokesmenaskedthestudentsassembledattheLondonSchoolofEconomicstoestablishtheRevolutionarySocialistStudent Federation,whethertheyknowhowtomakeapetrolbomb,the NewYorkReviewofBooks publishedadiagramofandarecipefora Molotovcocktailonitscoverpage.Thishasnotprevented,ofcourse,itspoliticalwritersfromdeploring'Americanviolence.'InFrancethe selfabasementoftheelderly progressives'reacheditspeakduringtheMayrevolution.'AtthemeetingofJeanPaulSartrewiththestudentsattheSorbonne,MaxPol Fouchetexciaimedwithpathosappropriatetotheoccasion:'Representingagenerationwhichhasfailed,Iaskyounottofail!'"(Leopold Labedz,"StudentsandRevolution," Survey [London],July1968,pp.2526). Thewarthusservedthesamefunctionasthe earliercampaignsagainstnuclearbombsinallowingfortheexpressionofessentiallymoral concernsbytheadoptionofanantiUnitedStatespoliticalposture.FrankParkin,inhisMiddleClassRadicalism:TheSocialBasesofthe BritishCampaignforNuclearDisarmament(Manchester,1968),showshowtheBritishCNDmobilizedmiddleclasssupport,drawnfrom amongthosewithatraditionofmoralconcern,intoacampaignagainst"evil."Thecampaignreliedheavilyonsmallsymbolicgestures,such aseccentricdress,beards,andotherformsofdistinctivebehavior.

43

obscure,whiletheprogrammaticlanguagerangedfromCohnBendit'sexaltationofactionandrejectionof * communism toarathersimplisticrepetitionofMarxistcant. Inthe initialphasesofthecampaignagainsttheVietnamwar,communistsupportjudgingfrom approvingcommunistpronouncementswasperhapsinvolved,butcommunistapprovalwanedrapidlywhenthe antiinstitutionalcharacterofthemovementbecameincreasinglyevident.Intheeyesofmanypoliticalmilitants, thecommunistsystemalsorepresentedbureaucraticconservatism,sinceitsoriginalrevolutionaryidealshad fossilizedintoinstitutionalbeliefs.Communistendorsementgraduallyshiftedtocriticismandthento condemnationtheviewsofthemilitantNewLeftwerecharacterizedbyaSovietwriteras"Mamaism,which incorporatesideasofMarx,MarcuseandMao,acompletelyartificialcombination."36 ThoughthepoliticalmanifestationsinMexicoCity,Madrid,Prague,andWarsawpartookofthesame reactionagainstinstitutionalizedbeliefandsimilarlycapitalizedonsomeoftheethicalandpsychologicalstrains inmodernsociety,theyweremuchmorespecificinfocus,lesspredisposedtowardemotion,andmoreinclined towardaprogrammaticpoliticalapproach.Inallfourcases,thedemonstrators'demandswereconcernedwiththe looseningofdirectpoliticalrestraints,andtheleadersdidnothavetoconstructanelaborate"onedimensronal man"thesistoprovethatliberaldemocracycanalsobeoppressiveandthatitstoleranceisinfactamaskedform 37 ofconstraint. Asaresult,atleastonthepoliticallevel,theirdemandstookthefamiliarformoftherejectionof overtpoliticaldictatorship:abolitionofcensorship,therightoffreeassembly,freedomtotravel,political democracy,andtheabandonmentofbothideologicalmonopolyandoppressionby secretpolice.Thesimilarity 38 ofthepoliticallylibertariandemandsofthestudentsinthesefourcitiesisstriking. Itshouldalsobenotedthatthestudentswhodemandeddirectpoliticalfreedomactedinthecontextofa muchmorehostilepoliticalenvironment.ThestudentmilitantsintheUnitedStates,inWesternEurope,andin Japanliterallybaskedinpublicity:frontpagepictures,televisioninterviews,ecstaticendorsementsbymiddle agedsupporters,epicsongsimmortalizingtheirdeeds,andbooksinwhichthevariousconfrontationswere recordedinproseandinphotographs. GiventhepluralisticnatureoftheWesternsocietiesandthecompetitive characteroftheircommunicationsmedia,youthfulmilitancywasrewardingtotheego andthusalso infectious. ThisfactormustbetakenintoaccountbothinanalyzingthedynamicsofeventsintheWestandin 39 comparingthemwitheventsinlesspluralisticsocieties. Therethemassmediaeitherignoredthe demonstrationsorcondemnedthem.Thestudentleaderswereabusedandarrested.Communicationsbetween institutionsnottospeakofcitiesrequiredgreatpersonaleffort,sacrifice,andrisk.Youthfulmilitancywas notrewardedwithsocialacclaimMadridandWarsawrespondedwithprisonsentencesfortheleadersand universityexpulsionfortheparticipants. Thepoliticalenvironmentclearly helpedtoshapetheemphasisandthescopeofthestudents'demands. Inastrictauthoritariancontext,thedemandshadapoliticallylibertariancontent.Inalooser,morepluralistic environment,thedemandswereeitherfocusedonmoreimmediateuniversityaffairsortookontheformofa broaderandthusinevitablysomewhatvaguersocialcritique.Accordingly,themorespecificandlibertarian characterofthedemandsmadebythestudentleadersintheauthoritarianstatesprovidedlittlebasisfora commonfrontwiththemilitantsoftheWest.Infact,theredoesnotappeartohavebeenmuchactualcontactand coordination,althoughitwaschargedinPoland'spoliticalyouthtrialsinlate1968thattheBrusselsheadquarters oftheIVInternational(Trotskyite)providedideologicalassistancetosomePolishactivists.Ifthechargeistrue, theTrotskyitelinkwasperhapsthesoleconnectionbetweenpoliticalactivistsintheWestandintheEast. Thetwomovementsappeartohavebeenindependentlyledandtohavebeenmotivatedbyprofoundly differentpoliticalaspirations.Theslightdirectcontactthattherewasbetweentherespectiveleadersturnedoutto beabortive.In1968,inaBBCdiscussionofthestudentrebellion,theleaderoftheEnglishmilitantsattackedthe spokesmanoftheYugoslavstudents,whiletheheadoftheWestBerlinSDS(SozialistischerDeutscherStu dentenbund)receivedarathercoolreceptionfromPraguestudents,whofound hispoliticalviewsprimitive. 40
*

Becauseofthis:thePravdapropagandistYuriZhukov,withhiscustomarycrudeness,characterizedCohnBenditasa"werewolf"(Pravda, May30,1968). Thefollowingmayserveasanexample:"Marxismiscomingmoreandmoretobethecommondenominatorofallstudentmovementsin NorthAmericaandWesternEurope,evensointhenewleftSDSintheUnitedStates.Ithinkthisisinevitableandisatributetothegrowing sophisticationandmaturity oftheinternationalstudentnewleft,inasmuchasMarxismisthemostdeveloped,refinedandcoherent revolutionaryphilosophyorworldviewtodayandonethatasasystematicsocialtheorycorrespondstotheobjectiverealitiesofthecapitalist era,and inasmuchasittestifiestotherealizationbythestudentmovementsthattheymustalignthemselveswiththeworkingclassinorder toachievethetypeofsocialtransformationrequisitetobreakthepowerofmonopolycapitalandcreateanew,nonrepressiveandtrulyfree socialorder"(StanleyGray,"StudentRadicalism:AnAmeri?,Import?"aspeechdeliveredtothe1968CouchichingConference,McGill News,November1968,p.22). Thepublicitybestowedonthreefemalecollegemilitants(PeterBabcox,"MeettheWomenoftheRevolution,"TheNewYorkTimes Magazine,February9,1969)wascharacteristic.SimilardeferencewasnotpaidtogirlsservinginthePeaceCorpsorinthewaronpoverty. Inthisconnection,itwasrevealingtoobservethesatisfactionwithwhichthemilitantswouldwatchthemselvesontelevisionreplaysor speciallyprepareddocumentaries.Thepublicitysurroundingthemilitantsbroughtconsiderablesocialpressuretobearonthosewhowere lessinvolved. ItisalsonoteworthythatstrictlypoliticallyorientedstudentmovementsinMexico,Spain,orPolandavoidedsuchmanifestationsasthe "foullanguage"splinterthatdevelopedinCaliforniaintheaftermathofthecrisis,thefascinationwithdrugs,andthedeliberateadoptionof deviantsocialbehaviorasinthecaseoftheYippies.Tobesure,thesemanifestationswerealsotheproductofpeculiarlyAmerican conditions,buttheirappearanceasasideeffectofthestudentrebellionwasmadepossiblebythelessfocusedandalsolessoppressed

44

Nevertheless,importantsimilaritiesbetweentherespectivepoliticalyouthmovementsshouldalsobe noted.Inbothcasestheywereledbytheablerstudents,whoonthewholecamefrommoresociallyestablished families.AccordingtoastudyconductedattheUniversity ofCalifornia,thearrestedundergraduateandgraduate 41 studentstendedtohavemuchbetterthanaveragegradesmanyofthemheldscholarshipsorhadwonawards. InPolandofficialcommentmademuchofthefactthattheactivistscamefromtherelatively welltodohomesof officials,andsome universityprofessorsstressedthefact(inconversationwiththiswriter)thattheirbest studentswereinvolved.Afterthedemonstrationsweresuppressed,measuresweretakentofavortheadmission intotheuniversityofworkers'andpeasants'children.EveninRumania,wherestudentunrestwassuppressed relativelyquickly,officialreactionemphasizedthefactthattheyoung"hooligans"wereinthemainchildrenof "buildingsitemanagers,universityprofessors,instrumentalistsinthePhilharmonicOrchestra,physicians, engineers,whitecollarworkers,militiastaffmembers."42 AsintheWest,thepoliticalleadershipfortherestlessyoungwasinmanycasesprovidedbythe offspringofformerleftactivistshencenotbyrebelsagainsttheoldergenerationbut,rather,byyoungpeople whosharedtheidealsoftheirparentsbutfeltthatthesehadbeencorruptedinpracticebytherulingcommunist elite.InPolandthemostoutstandingstudentrebelsincluded thechildrenofhighpartyofficials,whileinthe UnitedStateschildrenoftheoldleftformedahighpercentageoftheactivistleadersatColumbiaandBerkeley. InboththeEastandtheWesttherebelleaderscamefromenvironmentsthatwerenotindifferentbut ideologicallyconcerned. AnothersimilaritybetweenthestudentmilitantsintheWestandintheEastwasthevaguenessoftheir longrangeobjectives.Thoughthespecificandimmediategoalsofthestudentsinthemorepoliticallyoppressive regimesweresomewhatmoreprecise,their"demands"rarelywentbeyondastatementofimmediatecomplaints. Tobesure,thetransformationofapolicedictatorshipintoamultipartydemocracy,oratleastintosomething resemblingtheYugoslavmodel,wasa moredefinedobjectivewithexperientialexamplesavailablethanthe Westernstudents'pleaforaparticipatorydemocracyhowever,themorespecificramificationsofthedesired * socialandpoliticalsystemstendedtobevagueintheEastaswellasintheWest. Thoughthismayhavebeenaweaknessfromthestrictlypoliticalpointofviewaswaschargedbythe criticsofthemilitantsitalsohelpedtoprovideawiderbridgebetweenthepoliticalleadershipandthemore generallyrestlessyoungergeneration.Itisdoubtfulandthisisespeciallytrueofthemorepluralistic societieswhetherahighlyspecificpoliticalprogramwouldhaveattractedthewidesupportgeneratedbythe moreundifferentiatedattackagainsttheEstablishment,vestedinterests,the statusquo, andinstitutionalized beliefs.Therelianceonemotionratherthanonreason,onfeltaspirationsratherthanonconcreteprograms, struckamoreresponsivechordinagenerationthatwasthemostdirectlyaffectedbythe paceofcontemporary changeandthatwastheveryproductofthatchange.

HistoricalDiscontinuity
Inourtimethestudentgenerationrepresentsoneofthemostdynamicvariablesofchange.Thegrowthintheir numberaswellasthesimultaneousgrowthinthenumberofradios,televisions,telephones(allitemsthataffect personalrelationships,bothmakingpossibleandencouragingtherapiddisseminationofideas)makefora subjectivelydynamicmoodthatstandsinsharpcontrasttotherelativelyslowerrateofchange insuchitemsas income(nationalorpercapita),theswitchfromruraltourbanemployment,thepopulationshifttolargerurban centers,ortheaveragenumberofpeoplelivinginaroom.Theoverallresultisthecontradiction,alreadynoted intheprecedingchapter,betweenthepaceofchangeinthestateofmindandinmaterialreality.'(SeeTables6 and7,pp.4243.) Inthewordsofastudentofmodernization,contemporarymanandthisisespeciallytrueofthe youngergeneration"islessunderthedominationofhisenvironment...andtothisextentheisfreer,butatthe sametimeheislesscertainofhispurposeandintimesofgreatunrestheispreparedtosurrenderhisfreedomin theinterestofpurposefulleadership."43 Inthatfluidsettingthepresentbecomesdifficulttocomprehend,sinceit 44 isnolongerdefinedbyeitherreligionornationalismorhistoricalideologicalperspectives. WritingaboutthewaningoftheMiddleAges,thehistorianJohanHuizingadescribedaworldof discontinuity,aworldmarkedbythecollapseoftraditionalbeliefs,uncertaintyabouteternalsalvation, widespreadpessimism,andintenseviolence.Psychologicalrefugewassoughtbymanyinmysticalcults,while individualbehaviorwasdichotomized,rangingfromemphasisonthesaintlytoindulgenceindepravityand cruelty.Shiftsfromoneextremetotheotherwerecommon,asmendesperatelysoughtsocialanchoragein 45 absorbingcommitment.
characteroftherebellion. * OneofthemoreextensivecritiquesoftheexistingPolishsystemwaspreparedbytwoyoungWarsawsociologists,J.KuronandK. Modzelewski,severalyearspriortothestudentoutbreaksofMarch1968. (Theauthorswerepromptlysenttoprison.)Entitled"OpenLetter totheParty,"itbecamethesourceofmuchofthetheoreticalinspirationforthepoliticalmindedleadershipofyouth.WrittenfromaMarxist pointofview,itprovidedascathingcritiqueofthedegenerationofPolishcommunismintoaninstitutionalizedbureaucraticdespotism,with vestedinterestssuppressingtheegalitarianidealismofsocialism.Whenitcametoofferingaprogram,however,theauthorsconfined themselvestourginganewrevolutionledbyworkersandintellectualsdeterminedtocreateanewsocialordercharacterizedbyfew institutions,workers'selfgovernment,andtruesocialegalitarianism.Inlate1968KuronandModzelewskiwereagainsentencedtoprison forhavingallegedlyinspiredtheMarcheventsincollusionwiththeIVInternational(Trotskyite).

45

Asimilarcrisis,markedbymuchmoresecularformsofexpression,occurredagainintheWestwhen nationalismandindustrializationcombinedtochangethecharacterofsociety.Massivenationalandclass conflicts,aswellasacutesocialandpsychologicaltension,spawnedallencompassingideologiesthatseemedto providebothauthorityandasenseofdirection.WritingaboutthecataclysmofWorldWarII,CzeslawMilosz, inTheCaptiveMind, drewperceptiveportraitsofEasternEuropeanintellectualsastheymovedfromonefaithto anotherinasearchforthepersonalstabilitythattheirenvironmentfailedtoprovide. Today'smoodhasmanyparallels,butitalsodifferssignificantlyinscopeandcontent.Theindustrial revolution,tosaynothingof thecultureoftheChristianMiddleAges,wasterritoriallyconfined,andonly 46 graduallyinthecourseofmorethanacenturyandahalfdiditspillovertoaffectmoreandmoresocieties. Itsappearancewasaccompaniedbytheriseofnationalismandothersecularideologies,inwhichbroadconcepts werereinforcedbytheinstitutionsembodyingthem.Incontrast,thecurrentcrisisofinstitutionalizedbelieftakes placeinthecontextofthetechnetronicrevolution,arevolutionwhichisnotterritorialbutspatiotemporal. Thisnewrevolutionalmostsimultaneously affectstheentireglobe,withtheresultthatfadsandnew formsofbehaviormoverapidlyfromsocietytosociety.Thestudentgenerationlivesinthisnewtechnetronic age,evenifinsomecasestheirimmediatesocietiesdonot.Unliketheindustrialage,whichrequiredthata societyundergoextensiveindustrializationbeforethenewproletarianclasscouldbecomesociallysignificant, thespatiotemporaltechnetronicrevolutiondirectlyreachesthosereceptivetoitbecausetheyhaveaccessto communicationsandbecausetheirstateofmindisformedbyfactorsoutsidetheirimmediatesocialcontext.The contemporarystudentmassispreciselysuchagroup,andthatiswhyformsofbehaviorpeculiartoBerkeley werewithinayearrepeatedelsewhere(WestBerlinstudentsevenworesandalsinthecoldNovemberCentral Europeanweather!).AmericanstudentactivistsstudyingabroadandhighlycriticalofAmericansocietyhave tendedtoplayanimportantenergizingroleinthisprocess,andareevidenceoftheextenttowhichAmerica,the firsttoexperiencethetechnetronicagefully,hasreplacedEuropeastheprincipalsourceofsocialchange. Theproblemfacingtherebelsofacenturyandahalfagowashowtointegratemeaningfullythe unprecedented,incomprehensiblechangeswroughtbytheindustrialrevolution.Thesameproblemisposedby theonsetofthetechnetronicage,withitsapparentthreattohumanvalues,itsimpersonality,itsover rationalization,itssimultaneousintensificationofpersonalexperience,anditsspatialimmediacytoeveryhuman suffering anywhereontheglobe.Formanyinthenineteenthcenturyespeciallythosewhoweremostaffected, eithervicariouslyordirectly,bytheindustrialrevolution(thatis,theintellectualsand theworkers)Marxism providedtheintegrativeresponse.Todaythesearchisonforsomenewsourceofintellectualmooring,andthe searchershavebegunbyrejectingestablishedanswers. Theyoungergenerationistheonemostdirectlyaffectedbythetransitionintothenewage,andit containsthemostactiveopponentsandincludesthemajorityofthosewhofeelthemselvestobevictimsofthe technetronicrevolution.Intheirrelianceonemotionandviolence,manyoftheopponentsarereminiscentofthe LudditesofearlynineteenthcenturyEngland,whoreactedtothemachineagewitbprimitivepassion,destroying thatwhichtheydidnotunderstandwellenoughtoharness.Oftensupportedbylocalpublicopinion,the Ludditeswellorganizedandhighlymotivatedshatteredmachinesanddecriedthefrequentlyveryreal injusticesthatthemachines'appearancehadprecipitated.Thefear,hatred,andincomprehensionofthecomputer * currentamongsomepeopleechoesthedenunciationsofthetextilemachineacenturyandahalfago. LiketheLuddites,thecontemporaryopponentsofthetechnologicalandelectronicrevolutionrepresent, especiallyinthemoreadvancedWesternstates,aresponsetothenewmodesoflife.TheLudditeswere threatenedbyeconomicobsolescenceandreactedagainstit.Todaythemilitantleadersofthereaction,aswellas tbeirideologues,frequentlycomefromthosebranchesoflearningwhicharemostsensitivetothethreatofsocial 47 irrelevance. Theirpoliticalactivismisthusonlyareactiontothemorebasicfearthatthetimesareagainst them,thatanewworldisemergingwithouteithertheirassistanceortheirleadership. Theattractionthatasegmentoftheyoungergenerationinthemoredevelopedworldnowfeelstoward poetry,lyricism,andemotionandtheircontemptforreasonandintellectualconceptsmaybeindicativenot somuchofonetraditionreplacinganotherbutratherofaclashbetweenemotionandnecessity.Ontheonehand arethefeelingsandattitudespromptedbythebreakdownofinstitutionalizedbeliefsandintensifiedbythenew modesofcommunicationallstimulatingorcreatinganoverwhelmingdesireforemotionalescape,oratleast emotionalreleasethrough"concrete"feelingsandassociations.Onthe otherhandisthetediousnecessityto masterbyintensiveconceptualizationthetechniquesofcomputers,mathematics,systemscontrol,andthelike, onwhichtheresolutionofmanycontemporarysocialproblemsdepends.
*

InearlyFebruary1969,riotingstudentsinMontrealventedtheirangeratthe"system"bydestroyingwithfireaxesaonemilliondollar universitycomputer. The insistenceontotalsolutionsprompts,atthesametime,theircharacteristicunwillingnesstobecomeinvolvedinthemoremundane processof makingpartialimprovements,ofgraduallyadaptingnewtechniques,ofreallybecominginvolvedintheworld.JohnArdagh,in TheNewFrenchRevolution (NewYork,1969),notes,thisparadoxinregardtotheFrenchintellectualleft:"Sartreandhisfriendshave preachedthatliteraturemustbe engageebutinpracticetheyhavealwaysshiedawayfromrealisticpoliticalaction....Sartreandhis friendshavealwaysdemandedutopiaornothing...SothetechnocratshavestolentheSartrians'clothes"(p.358). Compare,inthisconnection,NoamChomsky'sattacksonthenewbreedofAmericanintellectualexperts (AmericanPowerandtheNew Mandarins, NewYork,1968)withtheattacksonPlato,whowasaccusedofthesinof"intellectualizing"reality.Thereareothertantalizing parallelstoancientAthens.TheauthorofarecentstudyoftheimpactofPlato'sphilosophyonthesocietyofhistimearguesthattheterm "philosopher"wasrelativelynewandwasusedbyPlatotoidentify"themanwhoispreparedtochallengetheholdoftheconcreteoverour

46

Thoughthisclashmaybeaprofoundone,itisdoubtfulwhetherthestudentgenerationrepresentsanew revolutionaryclassofthetwentiethcentury.Atrulyrevolutionaryclassmust masterthecontemporary techniquesofsocialorganization,ratherthanrejectthem.Thismaybedifficultforthestudent"revolutionary class"todo,sinceitisnecessarilytransitionalincharacterandsubjecttoconstantchange.Thisdoesnotpreclude thepossibilitythatstudentmilitantsmightwelloptoutofsocietypermanentlyandbecomeespeciallyafter hardeningprisonexperienceprofessionalrevolutionariesandthattheinflowofnewstudentsmaykeepalive thefeelingsofrestlessnessandrebellion.Itisnot,however,certainthattheolderexstudentrevolutionarieswill beabletomaintaintheirtieswiththenewgenerationofyoungerstudents,fromwhomtheywillbeincreasingly separatedbyage.Theywillruntheriskofbecomingrebelsoutsideofa"class."Eachstudentgenerationwill thenhavetocreateitsownleadership,itsownaspirationsandtechniques,beforeittoofadesfromthescene.Itis perhapsnoaccidentthathistoryis,afterall,acemeteryofrevolutionaryyouthmovements. Moreover,thecomingwavesofstudentsmayenteranenvironmentgraduallybecomingmorewillingto toleratetheexistenceofaltogetherdeviantsubculturesandofferingsocialsupporteventothosewhochooseto divorcethemselvesfromsociety.Manyofthecontemporaryyoungerrebelsespeciallythosewhoarepath ologicalratherthanpoliticalintheirmotivationmaywellchoosethatpath.Finally,associalchange contributestothespreadofeducationandknowledge,thedistinctivecharacteristicsofthestudentmaybe blurredassocietybecomesmoreknowledgeorientedandthestudentmoresociallyinvolved,thegapbetween studentlifeandsocietywillnarrow. Nevertheless,thechallengeofthestudentgenerationasawholetorigidhierarchiesand institutionalizedbeliefsandtothesocialorderoftheindustrialagehashadtheeffectofreopeningthemore basicquestionsconcerningthepurposesofsocialorganization.Whatshouldbethebalancebetweentheinternal andtheexternalqualitiesoflife?Whatistherelationshipofpersonallibertytosocialequality?Thesequestions acquirenewmeaningandcallfornewdefinitionswheneveramajorhistoricalcrisisdominatesour consciousnessofreality.

4.IdeasandIdealsbeyondIdeology
Thenineteenthcenturycanbesaidtorepresenttheintellectualsupremacyoftheideaofliberty,butthe twentiethcenturyiswitnessingthetriumphofequality.Formostpeoplelibertyfounditspoliticalembodimentin thenation,andonlyforrelativelyfewwasitinproceduralguaranteesfortheindividual.Thelastcenturywas, therefore,primarilythetimeof nationalism,andonlysecondarilyofliberaldemocracy.Thesearchforformsin whichtheideaofequalitycanbeexpressediscurrentlythestrongestmotivatingimpulsebehindtheactivitiesof universitystudentsintheWestandofyouthfulcriticsoftheprivilegedcommunistelitesitalsoguidesrelations betweenblacksandwhitesbothintheUnitedStatesandinAfrica,andbetweenthericherandthepoorer countries. Wehavethusreachedthestageinmankind'shistorywherethepassionforequality isauniversal,self consciousforce.Whatismore,sinceequalityisnotlikelytobeattainedontheobjectiveplane,itmaybesought moreandmoreonthesubjectiveplane.Withrealequalityimpossible,equalitythroughemotionbecomesa substitute,withpassionateconflictandhostilitycreatingtheillusionofequality.

TheQuestforEquality
Thepassionforequalityisstrongtodaybecauseforthefirsttimeinhumanhistoryinequalityisno longerinsulatedbytimeanddistance.Nationalismspread duringacenturyandahalfaspopulationsgradually becamepoliticizedasasideeffectofliteracyand industrialization,buttherejectionofinequalitywithinandbe tweennationshasbecomethedominantmoodinamerematterofdecades.Inthisregard,asintherebellionof theyoungergeneration,theappearanceofglobalcommunicationandofnewlyeducatedmassesisthedecisive stimulus. Accordingly,therelationshipbetweenthetechnetronicageandthepassionforequalityifnottheidea ofequalityitselfisquitecausal.Fromthestandpointofgeneratingsocialandpoliticalmotivation,itisamatter ofenormousimportthat"thepoorliveasmuchinthenewsoftwaremultibilliondollarserviceenvironmentof 48 worldinformationasthewealthydo." Nationaloppressionandclassoppressionhadtobedirectandpersonal beforetheycouldgeneratecounterreaction.Todaythesenseofinequalitycanbevicariousandnevertheless extraordinarilyintense,becauseitcanbemagnifiedbeyondthelevelofpersonalexperience. Butthoughthecommitmenttotheideaofequalitycurrentlycommandsthegreatestallegiance,the definitionofequalityremainselusive.Inthecommuniststatesthestruggleforpoliticalequalityinvolvesthe desiretodoawaywiththerighttoruleasaprivilegeofonlyafewwiththerighttoreadandtotravelfreelyasa professionalprerogativeofonlythoseatthetopofthepowerelitewiththerighttobuywhatonedesiresasan advantageenjoyedonlybythoseongovernmentalassignmentsabroadorwithaccesstospecialstoresforhigh
consciousness,andtosubstitutetheabstract"(EricA.Havelock,PrefacetoPlato, Cambridge,Mass.,1963,p.281).Theconcentrationonthe abstractwasassociatedwiththeappearanceofanewtechniqueofcommunicationthewritten,whichfirstsupplementedandthendisplaced theantecedentoraltradition(pp.29295).Epicpoetryreliedonnarrative,whichbothstimulatedanddependedonemotionallyshared experiencethemoreabstractcategorizationofrealitybecamepossiblewiththeintroductionofthealphabetandwriting,anditopenedthe doorsofhistoryto conceptualization.BothChristianityandMarxismsteppedthroughthesedoors.

47

officials.Nevertheless,communistpartyleaders,whohavelongassumedthattheeliminationofpropertied classeswouldautomaticallyensuresocialequalityasthebasisforpersonalliberty,findthisdesireforlibertarian equalitydifficulttocomprehend. Inthenewanddevelopingstates,thedifficultyindefiningequalityiscompoundedbythefactthatin mostcasescomplaintsresultnotonlyfromimmediatesocialinequitiesbutfrom anacutesenseofdeprivation visavisthedevelopedworld.Thesmallsizeofmanyofthenewstatesfurtherintensifiestheirfeelingofim * potenceandcomplicatesthetaskofredress. Theireconomic dependenceonunstablecommoditymarketsand foreigncapitalmeansthattheirlibertyishighlyrelativeandtenuous.Theresultisaconditioninwhichliberty seemsthreatenedbytheabsenceofinternationalequality. Itisthedesireforequalitythathasmademostoftheleadersofthenewstatesembracesocialism.They seeinsocialismavehicleforensuringtheobjectiveswhichmostofthemshare:thefloweringoftheirnations' owndistinctivecultures,nationaleconomicdevelopment,andthegradualerosionofinternalandexternal inequality.TheirsocialismsharestheMarxistanalysisofcapitalismandtheLeninistdescriptionofimperialism, thoughtheleaderstendtostressthattheireconomicapproachavoidstheerrorsnotonlyofcapitalismbutof 49 communismaswell. Indeed,someleadershaveclaimedthattheirsocialismlessdogmaticandenrichedby indigenoustraditionswouldprovidetheworldwithamorehumanealternativethaneitherthedoctrinaire 50 materialismofcommunismorthesocialindifferenceofthecorporateWest. Writingjustbeforetheattainment ofindependenceinKenya,TomMboya,indiscussingtheAfricanconceptofsocialism,declaredthateventually Africa"willshowtherestoftheworldwhatfreedomreallymeans."51 Theseviews,however,remainessentiallyunstructured andunsystematized.Thoughtheyhavebeen describedbysomescholarsasanideology,theytendtolackthesystematic,coherent,integrated,and intellectuallysustainedcharacterofeithersocialismorcommunism,andthereisanabsenceofformaldogmas andinstitutionalembodiment.Thoughtheybacktheirviewsbyundemocraticpoliticalpowerandphrasethemin aterminologylargelyderivedfromMarxism,andthoughtheyarenecessarilypreoccupiedwithimprovingman's economiclife,theleadersofthe new nationstendtolaystressonthepreeminenceofnationhoodandofthe spiritualimportanceofthehumanbeing.Thisisalsotrueofthenewindigenousintellectualsthoseinthesocial layerimmediatelybelowthepresentThirdWorldleaderswhotendtobeevenmoreradicalintheiroutlook, 52 moresusceptibletoracistappeals,andhighlyemotionalinbehavior. TheirecstaticMarxismisafarcryfrom eitherthescholasticismofMarxortheorganizationalsinglemindednessofLenin. Moreover,the experienceofseveralyearsofindependencehashadachillingeffectonthosewho originallysawinthenewnationsanexpressionofamorehumanevisionandanexampleforothers.Inmanyof thenewstatestherulingeliteshaverestrictedlibertyonthegroundthatsuchrestrictionisnecessarytofight inequalitybyeliminatingprivilegeonthehomefrontandbymobilizingnationaleffortstobridgethewidening 53 gapbetweenthenationandtheoutsideworld. Thepassionforequalityhasinsomeplacesbeendebasedintoa racialnationalismthatfindsitsexpressionintheexpulsionofnonnativetribesmen(ChinesefromIndonesia, AsiansfromEastAfrica)andmoregenerallyinaxenophobicandevenracialresentmentofthedevelopedwhite worldastheprincipalexploiter.Thenewpoliticaleliteshaveshownastrongpropensitytowardconspicuous consumption,atsomeexpensetotheirsocialconsciousness. Theproblemofequalityposesitselfratherdifferentlyinthemoredevelopedandprosperouscountries. There,particularlyintheUnitedStates,ithastakentheformofoppositionto"bigness"ininstitutionsandvested interests.Opponentsof"bigness"arguethatthepoliticalprocessisdeceptivebecausethe"oneman,onevote" formulamerelyobscurestheunderlyinginequalityofpowerbetweentheindividualand,forexample,the corporations.Morespecifically,thenotionofequalityratherthanthatoflibertyhasbeenattheheartofthe civilrightsstruggleintheUnitedStates.Formal"liberty"hasbeengraduallyandpainfullyobtainedbythe blackswiththepassageofcivilrightslegislation,particularlylegislationguaranteeingtherighttovote.That "liberty," however,hardlyassurestheblacksequalityinAmerica,andtheblackman'sstruggletodayistoobtain the"equality"thatthewhitemanalreadypossesses.Definingthat"equality"ispreciselywhatperplexesthe collegepresidentorthecitymanager,towhomlibertyhastraditionallybeensynonymouswithequality. Thesocialtensions inthedevelopedworldandthisistrueofsomecommunistcountriesaswellasof morepluralisticsocietieshighlightthedifficultyofseekingequalitypurelyontheexternalandmateria plane. Afterseveralcenturiesofsocialactivism whichemphasizedtheexternalmancontemporarymaninthe advancedindustrialcountriesconfrontsacrisisofselfdefinitionforwhichhefindsnosatisfactoryanswersin eitherestablishedreligionorideology.Withthegradualfadingofnationalistandideologicalpassions,inner certitudeandexternalcommitmenthaveyieldedtoinnerambiguityandexternaluncertainty.

SyncreticBelief
WhenMichelFoucaultproclaimed"thedeathofman,"hewasexpressinginalmostNietzscheanterms
*

"Themedianpopulationofallstatesindependentbefore1776istoday22.6million,ofthoseemergingfromthefirstanticolonialrevolution andthedissolutionofdynasticempires(17761945),5.2million,andofthosethatwontheirindependenceinthelasttwodecades,only3.4 million.Theremaybesomedisagreementontheoptimumsizeofanationstate,butthereislittledoubtthatitisabovethreeorfourmillion. Theverysizeofthenewlyproclaimedstates,particularlyinAfrica,makesitdifficultforthemtorealizethoseaspirationsofmodernityand power,ofdignityandprosperity,whichtheirleadersprofess"(DankwartRustow,AWorldofNations,Washington,D.C, 1967,p.247).

48

* thepessimisminherentinthereactionagainstPrometheanideologies. Thatreaction,in

EUROPEAN Onehundredyearsago 1. Thereisprogress. 2. Socialevolutionislinear. 3. Westerncivilizationis mov ing continuallytowardgreaterheightsin culturalandsocialdevelopment. 4. Manisrational. 5. Societyiscomposedofindividuals who,being rationalorcapableof ecomingrational, shall boostmankind tonewlevelsofaccomplishment.

ZEITGEIST Today 1. Thereisnoprogress. 2. Socialevolutioniscyclical. 3. Westerncivilizationisinaperiodof disintegrationanddecline. 4. 5. Manisnonrationalorirrational. Societyiscomposedofmasseswho, beingnonrationalandeasily nfluenced, shallreducemankindtomediocrity.

turn,reflectsthescientificcomplexityofmodernsociety,whichstimulatesafeelingoffutilityandimpotenceon thepartoftheindividual.Foucault'sviews,associatedwithaschoolofthoughtcalled"structuralism,"havebeen characterizedbyacriticastheideologyofcontemporary technocracy,forFoucaultseesmanastheobjectofa 54 processwhichdepriveshimofanyautonomyandruleshimimpersonally,accordingtoastructuraldynamic. Therejectionofconscioushistorythusstrikingattheheartoftheideologicalreligiousapproachthathas dominatedWesternthinkingisitselfareflectionofthecontemporarycrisisinvalues,assumptions,andbeliefs andofthecollapseofallintegratedandsimultaneouslypurposivehistoricalinterpretations. Centuriesago,inthegreatreligions,mandefinedthenormsthatoughttoguidetherelationsamong men.Now,forthefirsttimeinrecordedhistory,manisbeginningthoughjustbeginningtoliberatehimself fromtheoppressivestruggletosurviveasaphysicalbeing.Thishaspromptedarenewedconcernwiththemore elusive,spiritualaspectsofexistence ithasalso createdastateofagitation,inwhichsystematicdialogue increasinglybreaksdownbecauseofthelackofsharedassumptions.Naturally,thisisespeciallytrueof the intellectualcommunity,thoughthereactiongraduallycommunicatesitselftothebodypolitic.Asaconsequence, themajorityofpeopleabidebyproceduralpoliticalorderonlyaslongasthatorderworks,buttheyhavelessand lessinternalcommitmenttoit.(Thepassive behaviouroftheFrenchpeopleduringtheMay1968collapseof politicalorderisacaseinpoint.)Tobesure,thereismuchdiscussiontodayoftheneedtoreasserthuman values,ofthepriorityofmanagainstthetyrannyofpoliticaldespotsordehumanizingtechnocrats,butinour timeasopposedtothesituationineraswhenreligionorideologywasdominantthemeans,theforms,and theinnersignificanceofthesegoalsremainextraordinarilyundefined.(TheInternationalPhilosophicalCongress inViennain1968was,forexample,dominatedbytheviewthatcontemporaryphilosophymustbeinthe forefrontofthe"struggle,"but how itwastocontributewasneverspecified.) Itisdoubtful,therefore,whetherthegrowingconcernwiththeabstractandthespiritual,andeventhe evidencesofnewinterestinreligiosityinotherwords,allmatterssubsumedundertheterm"thequalityof life"willinthenearfutureleadtotheemergenceofnewformalideologiesorreligions.Scientificcomplexity andskepticismreinforcedbytheimpressionisticeffectsofincreasedrelianceonaudiovisualcommunication (television)workagainstthesystematicanddogmaticqualitiesofanideology.Inthissenseitistherefore righttospeakof"theendofideology."Religionandideologywerepartofanageinwhichrealitywasstill
*

ThispessimismhasbeensummarizedinRobertBailey'sSociologyFacesPessimism(TheHague,1958,pp.11617)intenpropositions, contrastingtheEuropeanZeitgeistofahundredyearsagowiththatoftoday: 6.Scientifictruthand knowledge 6.Scientifictruthandknowledge arebeneficialforsociety. maybeharmfulforsociety. 7.Mythandsuperstitionareharm 7.Mythandsuperstitionmaybe Full beneficial. 8.Asocietyrepresentsaharmony 8.Asocietyiscomposedalwaysof ofinterests,a communumbo conflictinginterests num. 9.Societyisruledbytheconsentof9.Societyisruledbytheelite,thepeople. 10.Democracyandthehumanitarian10.Democracyandthehumanitarian socialvaluesservetoprotectin socialvaluesareunfortunatemis dividualandcommunityinter takesthatresultintheruleofun ests.educatedmasses. StructuralismalsoinvolvesacritiqueofSartre'sexistentialism,which,initsstressonindividualmoralautonomy,wasitselfareactionto theideologicalemphasisontheindividual'ssubmissiveidentificationwithcollectiveandpurposivehistorymaking. InthewordsofoneoftheparticipantsintheHarvardUniversityProgramonTechnologyand Science:"Withtheadventoftheaffluent industrialsocietiessciencetendstoreplaceeconomicproductivityasaprimarysocialgoal.Asscienceisablemoreandmoretosatisfyits materialneedswithlesshumaneffort,itbecomesmorepreoccupiedwith thespiritualandintellectualneeds.Itmustdevelopnewgoalsand aspirationsinordertoremainviableasasocialorder....Manytimesinthepastscientistshavebelievedthatallthesignificantquestionshad beenanswered,andtheonlytaskremainingwastofillinthedetails,toworkoutthefullramificationsoftheconceptualstructurewhose mainframeworkwascompletelydelineated.Yeteachtimetheexpectationhasprovedtobewrong.Eachnewmajoradvancehasrevealedan unsuspectednewworld,anewconceptualstructureembeddedintheold,andsubsumingit"(HarveyBrooks,"CanScienceBePlanned?" HarvardUniversityProgramonTechnologyandScience,1968,pp.1314[italicsadded]).

49

dogmaticallycompressibleintointellectualizedcompartmentsbothwerereinforcedbytheurgentdesireto translatetheidealintothereal.Whatmoreprobably liesaheadisaturntowardmorepersonal,lessstructured, moresubjectivelydefinedattemptsatasynthesisofthescientificandthespiritual thoughperhapsnothing quitesomysticalasTeilharddeChardin'sthinking.Inanycase,thisappearstobe thetrendamong contemporaryChristianandrevisionistMarxistthinkers. Thoughitisindividuallyenriching,thereisthedangerthatthisdevelopmentmightworkagainstthe durabilityofliberaldemocracy.Intellectualconfusionandpoliticaldisagreement,tosaynothingofsimple insecurity,mightwellstimulateasearchforexternalsourcesofstabilitywhichwouldtaketheformofeither repressionorthebestowalofconfidenceonadominantpersonality.Moreover,"asocietythatcarrieseclecticism tothepointwherenotonlythetotalculturebuttheindividualconsciousnessbecomesamerecongeriesof disassociatedelementswillfinditimpossibletomakeacollectivedecisionastowhatmanshallmakeofman." 55 Aleadercanthenbeasubstitute fortheintegrativetasksofsociety,whichareotherwiseperformedbyeithera * formaloranimplicitlysharedideology. Intheabsenceofsocialconsensus,society'semotionalandrational needsmaybefusedmassmediamakethiseasiertoachieveinthe personofanindividualwhoisseenasboth preservingandmakingthenecessaryinnovationsinthesocialorder.Giventhechoicebetweensocialand intellectualdisorderandbythisisnotmeantanythingthatevenapproachesarevolutionarysituationand authoritarianpersonalleadership,itisveryprobablethatevensomepresentconstitutionalandliberaldemocratic societieswouldoptforthelatter. Thetemptationtochoosesecurityasanalternativetocomplexitymaygrowintheyearsahead,because "theendofideology,"farfromdiminishingtheimportanceofideasandidealsinpolitics,isusheringinanagein whichabstractissuesconcerningthemeaningofpersonalandsociallifeareagainbecomingcentral.Itis preciselybecauseinstitutionalizedbeliefsnolongerbothconfineanddefinetheframeworkofthedialoguethat thedialogueisbecomingmoreintenseandfarranging.Theresultisarenewedconflictofideas,butnotof institutionalizedideologiesrenewedinterestinreligiosity,butnotinorganizedreligions. Inthisnewandpassionatedialogue,establishedandwidelyusedterminologiesareincreasinglyuseless. Termssuchascapitalism,democracy,socialism,andcommunismevennationalism arenolongeradequate toproviderelevantinsights.Inideologicallydominatedsocieties,suchasthecommunistnations,thisinadequacy expressesitselfmoreandmoreinevenovertattacksontheofficialideologyinsocietieswithlooser,more implicitvalues,itpromptsasearchforsomeacceptableandrelevantframework.Inbothcasestheaccentison theneedtocombinethepreviouslydominantemphasisonexternalmanwithrenewedattentiontohisinnerlife. InbothcasesaswastrueofMarxismintheindustrialagethereisthefelt needforanewintellectual synthesis. Itissymptomaticofouragethatdespiteitsintenseturbulenceithasnotproducedarelevantconceptof revolution:astrategyofactiondesignedtoreplaceoperativeinstitutionsandvalueswithanewsetthatis,botha methodofchangeandthesubstanceofthatchange.Theindustrialagedidproducesuchaconcept(Marxism), anditwaslaterappliedtocountriesintheprocessofindustrialization.Thereisnosuchtheoryavailabletothe postindustrialsocieties,norhastheNewLeftsucceededinprovidingone.Moreover,whereasinthepast ideologiesofchangegravitatedfromthedevelopedworldtolessdevelopedareas therebystimulating imitationofthedevelopedworldtodaythedifferencesbetweenthetwoworldsaresopronouncedthatitis difficulttoconceiveofanewideologicalwaveoriginatingfromthedevelopedworldandrapidlyacquiring relevanceforunderdevelopednations. Totalintegrativerevolutionswerepossiblebecauseintegrativeideologiesprovidedaframeworkfor totalchangeandreconstruction.Theintegrativeideologywasinitselfareflectionofanageinwhichauthority restedonclearlyestablishedbeliefsandinstitutions.Thecommunistparty,withitsclaimtoinfallibility,wasthus theepitomeofanageofintegratedgrandvisionsandauthoritarianinstitutions.Rapidscientificchange,the massiveeducationalexplosion,andtheintensecommunicationsimplosionareallfactorsthatmakeforhighly volatilebeliefsandreactions andcreateasituationinwhichsubjectivefeelingsaremoreimportantthan collectivecommitmenttoablueprintforsocialactionandorganization. Accordingly,forthepresent,boththefragmentationunificationtensionsthatarestimulatedonthe political,economic,andintellectualplanesbythegapbetweenthetechnologicalandelectronicageandthe persistenceinaneweraofinstitutionsandsocialformsderivedfromanotheragepointtowardatimeof turbulenceratherthantowardatimeoffundamentalrevolution.Themoredevelopedworldisfacingacrisisof itsliberal,democraticconsensusthecommunistworldisfindingitdifficulttoadaptitsideologytheThird Worldseeksaframeofreferenceinamodifiedformofsocialismthatsubstitutesemotionfororthodoxy.Inthe pasttheworldlivedinanenvironmentofcompartmentalizeduniformity:agrariansocieties,basicallysimilarin socioeconomicstructurebutdifferentiatedinreligionsandcultures,wereisolatedfromoneanother today differentiatedsocioeconomicrealities,existinginanintellectualcontextofcrumblingreligionsandideologies, overlapperceptually.Thepsychiccertitudeofthepastthusgiveswaytopsychictensionconfidenceof
*

DanielBellhasdescribedthesocialfunctionsofideologyinthefollowingterms:"Withineveryoperativesocietytheremustbesome creedasetofbeliefsandvalues,traditionsandpurposeswhichlinksboththeinstitutionalnetworksandtheemotionalaffinitiesofthe membersintosometranscendentalwhole.Andtherehavetobesomemechanismswherebythosevaluescanbenotonly'internalized'by individuals(throughnorms)butalsomadeexplicitforthesocietyespeciallyonewhichseemsconsciouslytoshapesocialchangeandthis explicatingtaskisthefunctionofideology"("IdeologyandSovietPolitics,"SlavicReview,December1965,p.595).

50

* righteousnessyieldstofeelingsofguiltorresentfulinferiority. Itispossiblethatinthepresentphaseofintellectualturmoilthereareforthefirsttimetheseedsofaglobally relevantperspective.Theassertivelyuniversalistideologiesofthenineteenthcenturywereinfacthighly parochialintheirorigins,andthustheyquicklymergedwithnationalism.(Thisturnedouttobeparticularlytrue ofcommunismunderStalin.)Theseeminglyinnerorientedideasandidealsthatdominateinahighlyunstruc turedmannerthecurrentdialogueareinfactmuchmoreconcernedwiththeuniversalproblemsofmanand withthereintegrationofthespiritualandthematerial. Man'svisionofhimselfwasatfirsthighlyprimitiveandfragmentary,reflectingthousandsofsmallcultures.Out oftheseeventuallyemergedseveralreligionswithuniversalaspirations,thougheachwasstillculturallyand territoriallyconfined.Theageofsecularismgaverisetoamorepoliticalvision,inwhichnationalism(elevated intoauniversalprinciple)wascombinedwithlargelyEuropeanderivedideologiesthataspiredtouniversal applicability.Whetherourphaseisatransitionorthebeginningofamorefundamentaldisintegrationislikelyto beverymuchinfluencedbywhathappensinthetwomajorsocietiesofourtimetheUnitedStatesandthe SovietUnionandbywhathappenstothetwomajorcontemporaryvisionsofthemodernworldliberalism andcommunism.

Thus,inthepastwhenChristiansandMoslemshatedoneanothertheydidsoinselfrighteousconfidencetodayThirdWorldcitizensmay hateAmericansfortheirwealthbutatthesametimedespisetheirownfeltinferiority,whereasAmericansfeelguiltyabouttheirwealthbut savorafeelingoftechnologicalsuperiority.

51

PARTIII
Communism:TheProblemofRelevance
Marxism,bornofthesocialupheavalproducedbythecombinedeffectsoftheindustrialandnationalist revolutions,providedauniqueintellectualtoolforunderstandingandharnessingthefundamentalforcesofour time.Asbothaproductandaresponsetoaparticularlytraumaticphaseofman'shistory,itsuppliedthebest availableinsightintocontemporaryrealityitinfusedpoliticalactionwithstrongethicalelementsitformedthe basisforasustainedattackonantiquatedpreindustrialsocialinstitutionsanditraisedthebannerof internationalisminanageincreasinglydominatedbynationalhatreds. AsthefirststatetohaveputMarxisttheoryintopractice,theSovietUnioncouldhaveemergedasthe standardbearerofthiscentury'smostinfluentialsystemofthoughtandasthesocialmodelforresolvingthekey dilemmasfacingmodernman.YettodaySovietcommunismisaconservativebureaucratizeddoctrine.InChina, thesceneofthemostextensiveapplicationofMarxistprinciplestoextreme industrialbackwardness, communismisacuriousmixtureofethnocentricnationalismandideologicalfundamentalisminthemore advancedWestcommunismisvitalonlytotheextentthatitblursitsideologicalidentitybycollaboratingwith itserstwhileideologicalrivalsandintheEastitsideologicalmilitancyfeedsonadeliberateidentificationwith themostfanaticnationalistpassions.Insum,contemporarycommunismhassacrificedMarxism'sPromethean commitmenttouniversalhumanism. Thetragedyofcommunismasauniversalperspectiveisthatitcamebothtooearlyandtoolate.Itwas tooearlytobeasourceoftrueinternationalism,becausemankindwasonlyjustawakeningtonationalself awarenessandbecausethelimitedtechnologicalmeansofcommunicationavailablewere notyetreadyto reinforceauniversalperspective.ItcametoolatefortheindustrialWest,becausenationalismandliberal conceptsofstatereformismpreempteditshumanistappealthroughthenationstate.Itcametooearlyforthe preindustrialEast,whereitservedastheideologicalalarmclockforthedormantmasses,stimulatinginthem increasinglyradicalnationalism. ToolateintheWest,tooearlyintheEast,communismfounditsmomentofopportunityinneitherWest norEastbutinthehalfwayhouseofRussia.Itsfailuresandsuccesses,aswellasitsspecificcharacter,therefore, havetobeseeninthecontextofthatpeculiarfiftyyeartiebetweenawouldbeuniversalistdoctrineandahighly specificEurasiannationalsetting.Tothe presentdayworldthepracticalrealityofcommunismismainlywhat Russiahasmadeofit. TomodernmancommunisminChinarepresentsonlyapotentialanddoesnotofferarelevantexample. ThoughsomeaspectsofChinesecommunismitsallegedpuritanism, itsseeminglypermanentrevolution,its ideologicalmilitancymayappealtothemoredisaffectedandemotionalWesternintellectuals,asasocial modelChinaofferslittleguidancetothoseconcernedwiththeproblemsofadvancedindustrialcivilization. Still strugglingwithitsownbackwardness,sufferingfrompoliticaluncertainties, miredinconflictswithits immediateneighbors,increasinglySinifyingitsMarxismLeninism,Chinamaybearevolutionarysymbolfor some,butithardlyoffersablueprintforcopingwiththesocialandpsychologicaldilemmasposedbythepost industrialage. Tobesure,Chinamayappearinadifferentlighttosomeofthewouldberevolutionaryelitesintheless developednations.Forsomeofthem,Chinaprovidesanattractiveexampleofnationaldisciplineandideological dedication,ofamassivesocialefforttomodernizeinspiteoftechnologicalbackwardness.Butevenonthislevel theChinesemodelisrelevantonlyasanexampleofwillandpurpose,asaguideto thefuture,notasanexample ofhowcommunismrespondstotheproblemsofmodernity.TheexperienceoftheSovietUnionprovidesthe onlyanswertothatcrucialtest.

1.TheStalinistParadox
OnemandominatedalmosttwothirdsofSoviethistory,andhisnameisassociatedwithbothasystem ofruleandaparticularapproachtoconstructingcommunism.Noexaminationofcommunism'scontemporary roleintheworld,tosaynothingofwithintheSovietUnion,canaffordtooverlookStalin'sroleandStalin's legacy.ThatlegacyisrepresentedbytheSovietstate'scurrentinstitutionsandmodesofoperation,andeven thoughalmosttwodecadeshavepassedsinceStalin'sdeath,anySovietdiscussionofreformstillinevitably revolvesaroundthequestionofbreakingwithStalinism. Thisisquiteunderstandable.TheSovietstateandtheSovietsocietyoftodaywerecreatedbyan unprecedentedsocialrevolutiondeliberatelycarriedoutbythepoliticalelite.Violentandcostly,thatrevolution shouldnotbeconfusedwiththeBolshevikseizureofpowerin1917,foritoccurredmorethanadecadelater. Duringthecrucialyearsof19301940,inthecourseofwhichSovietsocietywasreshapedtomirrorthe * ideologicalaspirationsofthepoliticalrulers,thatrevolutionconsumedatleastsixandahalfmillionlives asthe
*

ThemostdetailedaccountingisinRobertConquest's TheGreatTerror, NewYork,1968.Heconcludesthatapproximatelyonemillion

52

newSovietstatetookshape.ItwasthatrevolutionwhichspawnedSovietRussia'spresentpoliticalelite.Itwas thatrevolutionwhichissaidtohaveconstructedthefirstsocialistsocietybasedonMarxismandtohavelaidthe foundationsforitseventualentranceintocommunism.Itisalsothatrevolutionwhichbegsthequestionwhether thatspecificcharacterwasnecessary toassuretheindustrialdevelopmentassociatedsointegrallywiththe creationofthenewsociety.

TheNecessityofStalinism
Thequestionofthe"necessity"ofStalinismshouldnotbeconfusedwiththatofits"inevitability."In retrospect,inevitabilitycanalwaysbemoreeasilydetectedinwhatdidhappenthaninwhat didnot.Stalinism became"inevitable"becauseMarxistpowerfirsttookrootinaspecificRussianenvironmentformedbyan autocraticpoliticaltradition,intellectualfrustration,andastrongpropensitytowardmessianism.Asaresult,cer tainfacetsofMarxismwerereinforcedattheexpenseofothers.ItwasLenin'scontribution,andthemarkofhis genius,tohavebeenabletoadaptMarxismtohisnativeRussia,andinsodoingtohavecreatedbothMarxist LeninistideologyandtheBolshevikparty. Lenin'svictoryoverhisrivalswithintheRussianMarxistmovementand,moreimportant,hisseizureof poweruponthecollapseoftheoldautocraticstructure,laidthebasisforthesuccessful"deWesternization"of Marxism,avictoryoforientaldespoticpropensitiesoveroccidentaldemocratictendencies.Hisemphasison dogmaticbelief,onviolence,onconspiratorialactivity,andonthealmosttotalsubordinationoftheindividualto theparty (partiinost),aswellashisintoleranceofdissentand hisparanoidsuspiciousness(alltosomeextent characteristicofMarx'sownbehavior),bothreflectedandextendedthebrutalautocratictraditioninwhichhe operated. ItcanthereforebearguedthatStalin'semergenceastopleaderandparticularlythe orientalstyleand 1 moodofhisdespotism wasfacilitated,ifnotdictated,byLenin'sconceptofthepartyasanelitistgroup suspiciousofthe"tradeunionmentality"oftheworkersandhostiletotheinertiaandconservatismofthe peasants.Intoleranceofoppositionandinsistenceonobediencetothepartyfacilitatedtheemergenceofa bureaucraticallyskilleddictatorcapableofexploitingthesetraditionstoparalyzewouldbeopponentsandrivals. Writingfromentirelydifferentperspectives,LeonardSchapiroandIsaacDeutscher,whocertainlydidnotsee eyetoeyeeitheronLeninismorStalinism,bothconveyedthedegreetowhichLeninismmadeStalinism 2 possiblebyinhibitingeffectiveoppositionwithinthepartytoStalin'sconsolidationofpower. IfLenindidnot makeStalininevitable,heatleastmadeeffectiveoppositiontohimwithinthepartyimpossible. Thequestionofthe"necessity"ofStalinismis,however,adifferentone.Itpertainstotheproblemof whetherStalinistmethodsandtheresultingStalinistsystemwereneededtoeffectthesocialistrevolution and,particularly,industrialization.EvenifitisassumedthatStalinismasapoliticalsystemwas"inevitable," itdoesnotfollowthattheenormoushumansacrificethatStalinextractedfromtheSovietpeoplewasnecessary tomodernizeandindustrializeRussiaandthenonRussiannationsoftheUSSR.Thatsacrificemayhavebeen * necessarytopreservetheStalinistsystem, buttoadvancethatpropositionistoshiftthegroundoftheargument andtomakethecasethattomaintainStalin'spowerStalinistmeanshadtobeused.Thereisnogainsayingthat argument. Itdoesnot,however,provideananswertothequestionwhetherStalinistmethodshadtobeusedto modernizeand industrializeRussiaandthenonRussiannationsoftheSovietUnion.Thequestionisimportant becausetheentireedificeofSovietlegitimacytheauthorityandthepowerofthepresentSovieteliteis derivedfromtheclaimthatthepastisessentially oneofgloriousandheroicachievement,onlyslightlymarred byStalin'soccasionalmisconductvisavissomeofhiscomrades.Despitetheextraordinarilydetailedandgory accountsofStalin'scrimesmadeavailabletotheentireSovietpublicduringthe TwentysecondCongressofthe CommunistPartyoftheSovietUnionin1961,thetendencyofthepostKhrushchevSovietleadershasbeento minimizeStalin'smisdeedsandtostresstheaccomplishmentsofthethirties.Theimplicationisthattheparty actedcorrectlythroughout,andhencethatitsclaimtopowerisderivedfromtheessentiallyinfallibleleadership ithasprovidedbothinthepastandinthepresent. ItisonthiscontentionthatthepresentSovietpoliticalsystembasesitsclaimtomoralityand universality.ToquestiontheformofthetransformationoftheSovietsocietyistoquestionthelegitimacyofthe presentrulers,albeitindirectly.Evenmore,itistoquestiontheinternationalrelevanceoftheSovietmodel,and particularlyitsLeninistStalinistconcentrationofpowerinthe handsofasmallbureaucraticpartyelite.The eventsinCzechoslovakiain1968,theSovietattacksontheChinese"CulturalRevolution"becauseit underminedtheprimacyofChinesepartyofficials,andthelongstandingSovietcriticismoftheYugoslav dilutionofpartysupremacyallshowtheextenttowhichtheSovietelitestillconsidersitspoliticalmodeltobe
personswereactuallyexecutedbetween1936and1938(p.529),thatatleasttwomillionmorediedincampsduringtheseyears(p.532),to whichonemayalsoaddtheatleastthreeandahalfmillionwhodiedduringthecollectivization(p.533) Myowncalculationsarethatofthe rulingparty's2.4millionmembers,nolessthan850,000werepurgedduring19371938alone(ThePermanentPurge, Cambridge,Mass., 1956,pp.98110).Itshouldbenotedthatestimatesmadebyothershavebeenhigher. * TheStalinisttheorythatclassstruggleintensifiesasprogresstowardsocialismaccelerateswhichconflictswiththenotionthatclass struggleisaconsequenceoftheexistenceofhostileclassesbutwhichjustifiesincreasedpoliceterrorwasfunctionallyconvenienttothe interestsofStalin'spoliciesandpower.

53

ofbroadersignificance.ThislinkbetweendomesticinterestsandforeignaspirationsexplainsSovietsensitivity tosuggestionsbybothMarxistandnonMarxistscholarsthattheStalinistmodeoftransformingSovietsociety waswasteful,cruel,andmostimportantneitheroutstandinglysuccessfulnornecessary. DidStalinhaveanyalternative? AtleastsomeRussians MarxistsaswellasnonMarxistshad envisagedmeansbywhichRussianindustrializationcouldhavebeenachievedinamannerlessphysicallyand morallycostlythanthatpursuedbyStalin,thoughonacomparativelyambitiousscale. Evenbeforethe1917 Revolution,Russianscholarsweredrawingupplansforthemodernizationoftheircountry.Perhapsthemost importantplanwascontainedinthestudyconcludedin1918byProfessorV.Grinevetskii,rectorofthe MoscowInstituteof Technology,whichoutlinedasystematicprogram,tolastseveraldecades,forthe 3 developmentofthecountry.Accordingtoanextremelyinformativeanalysisofthisstudy, inadditionto providingfordeliberatestateaction,GrinevetskiiplacedgreateremphasisthanSovietplannersdidonprice signalsandprofitcriteriaasameansbywhichtoarrive"inmostcasesatthesamepriorities,policies,andeven specificinvestmentchoicesasthoseselectedbySovietplannersindisregardofthesecriteria."Indeed,thetop prioritiesadoptedbySovietplannersintheearlyfiveyearplanscloselymatchedthoseenvisagedby Grinevetskii:electrification,therelocationofindustryandpopulationeastward,hydroelectricdevelopment, 4 canalconstruction,andsoforth. ThoughthestandardSovietclaimhasbeenthatSovietindustrializationwas derivedfrom"thegranitefoundationsofMarxismLeninism,"thereisabundantevidencethatSovietplanners, someofthemGrinevetskii'sformercolleagues,reliedheavilyonhiswork,acceptinghistargetsthoughrejecting hisformulaforamoreflexibledecisionmakingprocessandforgreater(thoughnotexclusive)relianceonprice signalsandprofitcriteria. Withinthecommunistparty,therewerealsoalternativeplansforindustrialization,mostnotablythose comingfromBukharinandthesocalled"RightOpposition."SomewhatlikeGrinevetskii,theyadvocateda policyinwhichpositiveinducementswouldbeemployedtoencouragethepeasantstoincreasetheirproduction andtomaketheurbanpopulationsharesomeofthesocialburdensofindustrialization,thetimetableforwhich wouldbesomewhatextended.Theywereparticularlyopposedtorapidcoercivecollectivizationthemeans usedbyStalintoextractasurplusfromthepeasantryandinthatoppositiontheywerelatersupportedevenby Trotsky,whoinitiallyhadbeenastrongopponentofBukharin.By1930,Trotskyhadconcludedthatthe physicalliquidationofmillionsofkulakswasanimmoral"monstrosity,"whichwasinitiatingaviciouscircleof 5 compulsionandviolencethatwasboundtoengulfthesocietyasawholeandtodiscreditcommunism. Perhaps evenmoredamagingfromtheSovietpointofviewhavebeenthemorerecentobservationsoftheotherwise orthodoxandhighlyproSovietPolishcommunistleader,WladyslawGomulka.SpeakingonNovember23, 1961,hesimilarlylabeledcollectivization"asthebeginningoftheprocessofgrowinglawlessness,violationof socialistlegality,theestablishmentofanatmosphereoffear,andthegrowthundertheseconditionsofthe * personalitycult,thecultofStalin." ItshouldalsobenotedthatStalinismputanendtoaperiodof unprecedentedcreativityinRussianarchitecture,poetry,andthesciences.Duringthe1920s,intheimmediate postrevolutionaryphase,Russiaexudedasenseofawakened,vibrantenergy.Themassiveterrorandthe ideologicalorthodoxyofStalinismpromptedcautionandconformity.EvenintheideologicalrealmMarxist thoughtwasreducedtoanintellectuallyregressivecatechism,forwhichStalin's DialecticalandHistorical Materialism(!938)servedastheallencompassingframeofreference. AdifferentrangeofissuesisposedbythequestionwhetherSovietdevelopment,thoughmorally and physicallycostly,attainedgoalsunmatchedbyanyothersociety.This,ofcourse,hasspecialrelevancenotonly totheinternalhistoricallegitimacyofthepresentsystembutparticularlytoitsstandingasamodelforother societies.Thisclaim hasbeendisputedbysomeEasternEuropeaneconomichistoriansaswellasbythoseinthe West.AmongtheWesterners,WaltRostowhasdevelopedperhapsthemostpointed(andcontroversial) challengetoStalinistachievementsinmodernization.Hearguesthatthecommunists"inheritedaneconomythat hadtakenoff"inindustrialdevelopmentinthetwodecadespriortoWorldWarI,andthat"Stalinwasthe 6 architectnotofthemodernizationofabackwardcountry,butofthecompletionofitsmodernization." Moreover,he seesstrikingparallelsinthepatternandpaceofbothAmericanandRussianindustrialization,the 7 formercommencingaroundthe1860sandthelatterinthe1880s.
*

Whethercollectivizationfacilitatedrapidindustrializationisamatterofdebateamongtheeconomists.Itisindisputable,however,thatits extraordinarilybrutalcharacterprecipitatedarapiddeclineinagriculturalresourcesthatmighthavecontributedtoinvestment."Thegross outputofagriculturefellfrom124in1928(1913100)to101in1933,andwasonly109in1936,whilethatofcattlefarmingdeclinedfrom 137in1928to65in!933andthenroseslowlyto96in1936.Throughoutthenineteenthirtiesthegraincropsdidnotexceedthepre1913 levelorweresomewhatbelowit"(Deutscher, TheProphetOutcast, London,1963,p.99).AspecialistinSovietagriculture,inreviewingthe recentSovietreconsiderationofthatdifficultperiod,reachedtheconclusionthat"withlargergrainandcurrency reservesandtheexistenceof amoreeffectivesocializedsector,thegovernment'sfreedom tomaneuverwouldhavebeenconsiderablygreater.Theentireedificeofthe industrializationprogramneednothavecollapsedanditwouldhavebeenpossibletoavoidthecatastrophicdeclineinlivestockherds,the necessityofdevotinghugeamountsof scarcecapitaltothetaskofmerelyreplacingthelossofdraughtpower,andthetyingupofmuch scarceadministrativetalentintheapparatusofcontrolandcompulsion. "WhethertheSovietgovernmentwouldhavebeenabletoremaininpowerwithoutthemasscollectivizationof192930isaproblemin whichaneconomist qua economistdoesnothavemuchtosay,butheisentitledtothinkthatanonStalinistSovietgovernmentmightwell havebeenabletodoso"(J.F.Karcz,"ThoughtsontheGrainProblem," SovietStudies,April1967,pp.42930).Thus,althoughthe marketableshareofagriculturemight(ormightnot)besmallerinanoncollectivizedsetting,itisreasonablysafetoassumethatevena smallershareofalargertotaloutputwouldmeanalargersupplyinabsoluteterms. Insuchareasassteel,coal,petroleum,andelectricitytheoverallAmericanratehasbeensomewhathigher,whileinlightindustryand

54

Similarly,CyrilBlack,inhisstudyofRussianmodernization,hascitedcumulativedatashowingthat"inthe perspectiveoffiftyyears,thecomparativerankingoftheUSSRincompositeeconomicandsocialindicesper capitahasprobablynotchangedsignificantly.Sofarastheratherlimitedavailableevidencepermitsajudgment, theUSSRhasnotovertakenorsurpassedanycountryonapercapitabasissince1917withthepossibleexcep tionofItaly,andthenineteenortwentycountriesthatrankhigherthanRussiatodayinthisregardalsoranked higherin1900and1919.The percapitagrossnationalproductofItaly,whichisjustbelowthatoftheUSSR today,wasprobablysomewhathigherfiftyyearsago."8 Black'scomparisonsincludecountriesthat,likethe SovietUnion,werebadlydevastatedbywarsandhadtoundergoextensiveeconomicrecovery.Otherstudentsof comparativesocioeconomicdevelopmenthavealsotriedtodeviseaschemeforrankingcountries,andthey 9 agreethattheSovietUniontodayrankssomewhereinthemiddletwenties. Blackisledtotheoverall conclusionthat"othersocietieshaveachievedsimilarresultsatasubstantiallylowercost,"andthusputsinto * questionamajorSovietpremiseaboutitsownpast. Supportforthesegeneralizationshasalsocomefromacomparativestudyofgrowthinsteelproduction asthekeyaspectoftheindustrializationprocess.ItshouldbenotedthatSovieteconomists,aswellaspolitical leaders,havefrequentlyreliedonsteelasthemajorindicatorofSovietindustrialgrowth.Theauthorofthis study,StefanKurowski,writingincommunistPoland,offersextraordinarilydetailedcomparisonsshowingthat underStalin,Sovietsteelproductiondidnotincreaseatasignificantlyfasterpacethanduringthemorerapid phaseofthepreWorldWarIRussianindustrialization,andthattheseratesapproximatedthoseattainedbyother countries,particularlyJapan,duringtheircorrespondingphasesofrapidindustrialization. Moregenerally, relyingonamoreextensivecomparativeanalysisthatinvolvessomedozencountriesovertheperiod17801970, Kurowskiarguesthatsociopoliticalsystemshaverelativelylittletodowiththeaccelerationintheproductionof steelandiron,andthatintheaccelerationofproductionthereisapatternofuniformityduetotechnical 10 11 innovation. Thisconclusion,quitenaturally,provokedofficialire, forittoucheduponthekeyissueinthe Sovietpast.

ImperialPacification
YetthoughStalinismmayhavebeenaneedlesstragedyforboththeRussianpeopleandcommunismas anideal,thereistheintellectuallytantalizingpossibilitythatfortheworldatlargeitwas,asweshallsee,a blessingindisguise.Asthestatepossessingthelargestandrichestlandmass,inhabitedbypliantyetvery creativepeople,asthecarrierofastrongimperialtradition,asasocietyskilledinwarfareandstatecraft,withor withoutStalintheUSSRwasdestinedtoemergeinthefrontranksofworldpowers,withonlyanother continentalpower,theUnitedStates,asitspeer.Itisthushighlyunlikely,givenRussia'straditionsandthe ambitionsthattheavailabilityofpowerinescapablystimulate,thatpostWorldWarIRussiawouldhavelong remainedstagnant,miredinamorassofinefficiency. ThequestionthatthereforearisesiswhatkindofRussiamightotherwisehaveemerged.Ademocratic Russia,eitherliberalorsocialist,doesnotseemtohavebeenarealalternative.Itwouldhaverequiredan unprecedentedleapfromautocracytodemocracywithoutaninterveningperiodofdemocraticgestation and inasettingofenormoussocialdeprivation,dislocation,andconfusion.ItisdifficulttoseehowpostWorldWar
transportationtheAmericanperformancehasbeenspectacularlymoreimpressive. * Sovietachievementsinspace,inweaponry,orinthemagnitudeofitsoverallindustrialgrowthhavebeenadmirable.Moreover,theSoviet Unionhasmadeimpressivestridesineducation,massculture,andsocialservices,andithascreatedasolidandextensivescientificbasefor thecountry'sfurtherdevelopment.Thus,itrankedfirstamongthedevelopednationsinthenumberofdoctorsperhundredthousand population,anditprovidedthehighestpercapitaannualsocialsecuritybenefits(StatisticalOfficeoftheEuropeanCommunities,Basic Statistics, Brussels,1967,pp.131,153). Atthesametime,itisusefultorecallthatinmanyrespectstheSovietUnionisarelativelyaveragesocietyasfarassocioeconomic developmentisconcerned.ThepreviouslycitedstudybyBlackprovidesusefulrankingsoftheSovietUnionincomparisonwithotherstates insuchfieldsaseducation(inthe519agebrackettheSovietUnionrankedthirtyninthamong124countriesforwhichinformationwas availablein1960),communications(in1960theSovietUnionrankedtwentysixthinnewspaperdistributionpercapitaamong125 countries),inpublichealth(inlifeexpectancytheSovietUnionwasthirteenthamong79countries),andsoon. Inregardtosuchindicators ofmodernityastheavailabilityofaircommunications,radios,telephones,cars,highways,orcomputers,the SovietUnionwasagaininthelowerranksofthemoredevelopedcountries.Thus,whencomparedwiththemoredevelopedtwentyone countries(includingtheEECandEFTAnations,Greece,Turkey,Finland,Spain,theUnitedStates,Canada,andJapan),theSovietUnion rankedtwentiethinthenumberoftelephones,seventhinthenumberofradioreceivers,andtwentiethinthenumberofpassengercars. TheSovietlaginthemorecomplexareas,suchascomputers,isequallystriking.Thus,ithasbeenestimatedthatby1968theUnitedStates hadapproximately50,00070,000computersinuse,ofwhich(accordingtoPaulArmor,"ComputerAspectsofTechnologicalChange, Automation,andEconomicProgress," TheOutlookforTechnologicalChangeandEmployment, AppendixVol.ItoNationalCommissionon Technology,AutomationandEconomicProgress,TechnologyandtheAmericanEconomy, Washington,D.C.,1966,pp. 220223)only10 percentwereinuseintheDefenseDepartment,AEC,andNASAthecorrespondingnonmilitarySovietfigurewassomewherebetween 2000and3500,orapproximatelyasmanyaswerethenoperatinginJapanorWestGermany,ortheUnitedKingdom,respectively(seethe comprehensiveestimatesinRichardV.Burks,TechnologicalInnovationandPoliticalChangeinCommunistEasternEurope, RAND Memorandum,SantaMonica,Calif.,August1969,pp.89).ForafullerdiscussionofthecurrentproblemsofinnovationintheSovietUnion, seepp.155159ofthisbook. Kurowskishowsbyprojectingratesbasedonthosefrom1870thatRussiansteelproductionwouldhavegrownbetween1914and1920to 11milliontons.In1929Sovietsteelproductionhadonlyreachedthe1914level,andby!935afterStalin'sFirstFiveYearPlanandthesix yearsequivalentto thosethatseparate1914from1920itreached12.6million(StefanKurowski,HistorycznyProcesWzrostu Gospodarczego, Warsaw,1963,pp.132133.)Moreover,KurowskicomparesSovietandJapanesegrowthratesduringboththe19281940 andthe19501962periodsingreatdetail.Again,hedemonstratesstrikingregularitiesinratesofgrowth(pp.134,138,175).

55

IRussia,tornbynationaldissension,classconflicts,competingideologicalappeals,andsheerphysicalmisery, couldhave effectivelyinstitutionalizedademocraticsystem,whensuchsystemshavefailedincountries endowedwithstrongerdemocratictraditionsandfunctioningundercircumstancesmuchmorepropitiousto democraticgrowth. GiventhemassivepoliticalawakeningoftheRussianpeoplethathadbeenstimulatedbythe industrializationoftheprecedingdecades,bythebeginningsofliteracy,andbytheexperiencesofthewar,the onlyotheralternativeappearstohavebeenanopenlychauvinistandintenselyimperialistdictatorialregime. Whenlinkedwitheconomicexpansion,similarphasesinthepoliticaldevelopmentofothergreatnations Germany,Japan,theUnitedStatesresultedinaggressive,dynamicimperialism.Expansivenationalism providedthebasisforpopularmobilizationandforahighlyassertive,evenaggressive,foreignpolicy.Atthe veryleast,Russia,inallprobabilityaidedbyforeigninvestments(economicinvestmentinstatesthat * subsequentlybecamepoliticalenemieswascharacteristicofthecapitalistera), ledbyamodernizing,chauvinist dictatorship,mighthaveexperiencedaburstofimperialist,nationalistenergythatwouldalsohavemadeita worldpower,perhapsbothatlowerdomesticcostandinafashionmorethreateningtotheworld. Thispointdeservessomeelaboration.StalinconsummatedthemarriageofMarxismLeninismand SovietparticularlyRussiannationalism.TheincreasingstressonGreatRussianstatetraditions,onfrontiers, onnationalaspirations,onRussia'scivilizingmissionvisavisthenonRussianSovietnations,andthelike, wenthandinhandwiththephysicaltransformationoftheSovietcommunistpartyfromonedominatedbya rathermixedlotofcosmopolitanandinternationallyorientedintellectualsofRussian,Jewish,Polish,Baltic,and CaucasianoriginintoapartydominatedprimarilybyRussian,andtosomeextentUkrainian,peasantsturned party apparatchiki. Tothesemen,theSovietpoliticalsystemsimultaneouslyrepresentedthesourceoftheirown socialadvancementandoftheirpoliticalpower.Theirloyaltytothesystemwasnotunlikethatofmanypeasant priests(usuallytheyoungestsons,forwhomnolandwasleft)totheCatholicChurchintraditionalsocieties:it wasmoreinstitutionalthanintellectual.Ideologyprovidedtheintegrative,intellectualperspective,butitwasnot theprincipalsourceofmotivationandcommitmentasithadbeentotheinternationalmindedintelligentsiawho precededthem. Accordingly,thenewSovietelitetended tobebothconservativeandnationalist,evenwhenthey sincerelybelievedthemselvestobetheadvocatesofaninternationalistideology.Theycouldthusactina manneressentiallydictatedbytheirowninterestsandneverthelessconsiderthemselvestrueinternationalists.To themStalin'sfamousdictumthatthetestofatrueinternationalistishisloyaltytotheSovietUnionwastheideal resolutionofthetensionthatdevelopedbetweenSovietnationalismandcommunistinternationalism.Nowonder thatBrezhnevineffectrevivedthedictumin1968toexplaintheoccupationofCzechoslovakia. Thecumulativeresultofthissituationhasbeenapatternofmixedmotivationandbehavior,dominated sinceStalinbystateconsiderationsthatoftencynicallyexploittheethicaluniversalismofMarxism.Butthe latterhasalsohadtobekeptalive,ifonlybecauseitmobilizedforeignsympathyfortheSovietUnionand becauseittappedtheidealismofSovietyouth,makingiteasierfortheregimetorecruitadherents.Thoughthe SovietUniondidexploititsEasternEuropeanvassals,andthoughitsfinancialandtechnicalaidtoChinawas notpoliticallydisinterested,theSovietpeoplegenuinelybelieve(astheyoccasionallygrumbletovisitors)that theSovietUnionhasaidedbothEasternEuropeandChinaaspartofitsobligationtocommunistsolidarity. Moreover,theinternalviolenceemployedbyStalinandthe educationaleffectofthecommunistideologyeven ifinitiallynotacceptedbythemasseshadarestrainingeffectonunbridlednationalism.AtfirstbothStalinist terrorandideologicallyinducedsocialchangesperplexedandoftenalienatedthepeople.Theunprecedented 19361938massacreofthetopSovietpolitical,economic,military,andintellectualleadershipinevitably reducedthevitalityofSovietsociety.Literallyseveralhundredthousandofthemosttalentedandbesttrained peopleperishedduringthoseyears.Inaddition,thoughtheprincipleofinternationalismwasoftenviolatedin practice,itdidrestraintheinclinationtowardGreatRussiannationalism,ifonlybyforcingmorecovertbehav ior.Domestically,thatprinciplehelpedtopreservenonRussiannationalities,despiteStalin'spurgesoftheir intelligentsia.Internationally,it helpedtoshapeinSovietleadersastateofmindthatworkedagainstthe incorporationintotheSovietUnionofPoland,Finland,andperhapsevenotherEasternEuropeanstates(atone pointtheYugoslavsthemselvesvolunteeredformembershipintheSovietUnion,andsomeSlovakcommunists, includingGustavHusak,proposedthesameforSlovakia).Thisisatemptationthatmoretraditionallynationalist andPanSlavRussianleadersmighthavefounddifficulttoresist. Paradoxically,therefore,thoughSovietideologyhassubsequentlybeenreinforcedandperhapseven increasinglydominatedbythenationalismofthemasses(particularlysinceWorldWarII),thehistorical functionofStalinistcommunismmayhavebeentorestrainandredefineaphaseinwhichtheRussianpeople wentthroughanintensenationalist,evenimperialist,awakening.Itforcedthatnewmassnationalismtopayat leastlipservicetointernationalcooperation,equalityofallpeoples,andtherejectionofracism.Marxismnot
*

ForimpressiveevidenceofWesternparticipationintheearlyphaseofSovieteconomicgrowth,seeAntonyC.Sutton'sWestern TechnologyandSovietEconomicDevelopment,19171930 (Stanford,Calif.,1968),whicharguesthat"Sovieteconomicdevelopmentfor 19171930wasessentiallydependenton Westerntechnologicalaid"(p.283),andthat"atleast95percentoftheindustrialstructurereceived thisassistance"(p.348).

56

onlyprovidedRussiawithaglobalrevolutionarydoctrinebutinfuseditwithauniversalperspectivederived fromethicalconcernsnotunlikethosestimulatedintheWestbythereligiousandliberaltraditions. Despiteitsmonumentalachievements,Stalinismsappedthehumanandemotionalresourcesofthe Russians,andapostStalinRussiamaythereforeeventuallyenterintotheworldcommunityasanotherspent, postimperialpower.Finally,bycreatingaparticularlydespoticmodelofcommunismandbyinsisting thatall otherCommunistpartiessubmittoit,Stalinnotonlysetinmotiontheprocessoffragmentingcommunismbut alsovitiatedmuchofcommunism'sappealatatimewhenthesusceptibilityofthemoreadvancedWestthe areaoriginallyseenbyMarxasripestforthehistoricaltransformationmighthavemadecommunismthetruly dominantandvitalforceofourtime.

2.TheBureaucratizationofBoredom
TheCommunistPartyoftheSovietUnionhasauniqueachievementtoitscredit:ithassucceededin transformingthemostimportantrevolutionarydoctrineofourageintodullsocialandpoliticalorthodoxy.That orthodoxyisrevolutionaryinrhetoricbutconservativeinpractice.Thepoliticalsystem,highlycentralizedbut arrestedinitsdevelopment,isseenbysomeSovietcitizensasincreasinglyirrelevanttotheneedsofSoviet society,asfrozeninanideologicalposturethatwasaresponsetoanaltogetherdifferentage.Sovietsociety,in whichelementsofurbanmodernityarecombinedwithextensive ruralbackwardness,isnolongerundergoing rapid,revolutionarychangescapableofmobilizingyouthful elan itseems,instead,bentonsimplymatchingthe higherconsumerstandardsofthecapitalistWest. Underthosecircumstances,itbecomesideologicallymoreandmoredifficulttojustifythehistorical legitimacyandthesocialutilityofSovietsociety'scontinuedsubordinationtoapoliticalsystemembodying increasinglysterilenineteenthcenturydoctrines.Indeed,theultimateironyisthatthe Sovietpoliticalsystem havingthrustRussiaintothemidindustrialagehasnowbecometheprincipalimpedimenttothecountry's furtherevolution.ItkeepsRussiainamoldthatisindustrialbourgeoissociallyanddogmaticauthoritarian politically.FortheUSSRtobecomeatrulymodernsociety,thebasicassumptionsandstructureofthepolitical formscreatedtopressindustrializationmustbechanged.Amorerelevantvisionoftomorrowthanthatprovided bytheofficialideologyisalsoneededtocopewiththehighlypersonalaswellasthebroadersocialconcernsof thetechnetronicage.

TheInnovativeRelationship
AtonepointtheSovietpoliticalsystemwasinarevolutionaryrelationshiptosociety.Consolidatedand subsequentlysubordinatedto thewillofoneman,thepoliticalsystemimposedaprocessofradical transformationonsocietybycombiningmodernization(largelythroughintenseindustrializationandmass education)withideologicallyderived,novelsocialinstitutionsandrelationships.Ineffect,thefunctionofthe politicalsysteminSovietsocietyparallelswhatMarxdescribedasthecapitalist'sprincipalroleinhistory: "Fanaticallybentonmakingvalueexpanditself,heruthlesslyforcesthehumanracetoproduceforproduction's sakehethusforcesthedevelopmentoftheproductiveforcesofsociety,andhecreatesthosematerialconditions whichalonecanformtherealbasisforahigherformofsociety,asocietyinwhichthefullandfreedevelopment ofeveryindividualformstherulingprinciple." Domesticrevolutionarychangefulfilledtheideologicalneedsoftherulingelitewithoutpushingthat eliteintoforeignrevolutionaryventuresthatmighthavejeopardizeditspower.Thenewrulingelitewas apprehensive lestprematureideologicalzealproveitsundoingyetitwasalsoideologicallycompulsive.Social isminonecountryStalin'sfamousanswertoTrotsky'spermanentrevolutionwasabrilliantcoup,foritfused thededicatedrevolutionaries'genuinelyideologicalaspirationswiththeirnewlyacquiredtasteforoffice. Socialisminonecountryallowedthenewrulerstoretaintheirideologicalselfrighteousnessandtheirpositions. Morebasically,thenew"onecountry"conceptdefinedaspecific,innovativeroleforthepolitical systeminrelationshiptosociety.Thepoliticalsystembecametheprincipalsourceofdynamismforsocial change,settinggoalsanddefiningpriorities.Oncesocietyhadtakenthedesiredshape,however,andbeganto mirrorthe officialaspirationsofthepoliticalrulerswhohadinthemeantimebeentransformedinto bureaucraticofficialsthemomentumforsocialchangestartedtowane. Inlate1952,Stalinhintedthatinhisviewtherewasstillneedforfurtherideologicallyderivedand politicallydirectedsocialtransformation.Subsequently,Khrushchevonseveraloccasionsstrovetoinfusethe relationshipbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsocietywithnewprogrammaticcontent.Atonetimehesuggested adramaticreconstructionoftheSovietcountrysideintosocalled"agriculturalcities."Laterheattemptedto definenewideologicalgoalslinkedtoSovietsociety'sultimatetransitionfromsocialismtocommunism.When thateffortinsocialinnovationspelledoutbytheparty'sideologuesinthenewpartyprogramadoptedin 1961turnedouttobelittlemorethanashoppinglistofadditionalmaterialbenefitstobeenjoyedbytheSoviet peoplesometimeinthe1980s,Khrushchevturnedhisattentiontothepartyitselfandbegantotoywiththe notionofredefiningitsrole.In1962hepushedthroughadrasticreformthatineffectsplitthepartyintotwo separateorganisms,onedevotedtoagriculturalmattersandtheothertoindustrialproblems.Asheexplainedit, "Theproductionlineisthemainone....Themainthingincommunistconstructioniseconomics,production, thestruggleforthecreationofmaterialandspiritualgoodsforthelifeofman."12 57

ThoughKhrushchev'sreformrantheriskoftransformingthepartyintotwoseparate,essentially manageriallyorientedhierarchies(andwasforthatreasonimmediatelyundonebyKhrushchev'ssuccessorsafter hisoverthrowinlate1964),itdidreflectarecognitionthattherelationshipbetweenthepoliticalsystemandthe societyhadbecomedysfunctional,thatifthepoliticalsystemwasnolongerdefiningnew,grandiose,ideological objectivesforsociety,thenthesystemitselfhadtobereformedinkeepingwiththemoreroutine,operational requirementsofSovietsociety,whichhadbynowacquiredthetechnicalandindustrialwherewithalforitsown further,steadygrowth.Sensingthatthepartywasinsearchofanewrole,Khrushchevwaspreparedtomakethe necessaryreforms.

DefensiveOrthodoxy
Khrushchev'ssuccessorsrejectedhisviewandoptedinsteadforrelativelyminoradjustments primarilyineconomicplanningandcontrolsimultaneouslyreemphasizingtheimperativenecessityof ideologicalorthodoxyandmorevigorousideologicalindoctrination.UnderthepostKhrushchevregimethere hasbeenneitheradefinitionofnewideologicalgoalsnoranymajortamperingwiththepoliticalstructure.Asa consequence,officialviewsonthestateofSovietsociety,onforeignaffairs,ontheproblemsofthefuture,and onthenatureofcontemporarycommunismcontainstrikinglylittlerecognitionofthenovelproblemsthatbeset man,eitherintermsofhispersonalconditionorasamemberoftheemergingglobalcommunity.Difficult problemsaresimplysweptundertheideologicalrug. Onthedomesticfront,theprevailingofficialviewhasbeenthattheSovietUnion,havingcompleted socialistconstruction,isnowlayingthefoundationsofacommunistsociety,andthatexistingproblemsare essentiallyinstrumental,neededtoimprovetheefficiencyofasystemthatinitsbasicassumptionsandorgan izationisofficiallyconsideredtobethemostadvancedandjustintheworld.Thelaginsocioeconomic developmentinsomeareasofSovietlifeisascribedeithertotheravagesofWorld WarIIortothefailuresofthe preevolutionaryregime.ThewritingsofrevisionistMarxistthinkersontheproblemsofpersonalalienationin anadvancedurbansocietytosaynothingofantiSemitisminasocialistsocietyaredismissedas inappropri atetoSovietconditions,orasmaliciousslander.TheSovietUnionissaidtohavenogenerationalproblems,and onlyrecentlyhasurbancrimebeendiscussedasaphenomenoninitsownrightandnotmerelyasalegacyfrom theprerevolutionaryera. Theseviewshavebeenarticulatedinthecontextofintensifiedeffortstoreassertandexpandideological training(therebypartiallycompensatingforthedeclineofcoercionasakeymeansofintegratingSovietsociety withthepoliticalsystem).Thoughthesocialscopeoftheseeffortshasbeenexpanded,inrecentyearsthereis openacknowledgmentofthefactthatspecialattentionhasbeenfocusedonthenewscientificcommunity:"The partyandthepeoplewanttoseeinscientistsnotonlycreatorsandorganizersofscientifictechnicalprogressbut alsopoliticalpeople,activefightersforthecauseofcommunism."13 Inaddition,therehavebeenexpressionsof officialconcernoverallegedideologicalindifferenceamongscientistsand,whatisevenworse,overatendency 14 inthesecirclestoconsidertechnocratsthenaturalleadersofmodernsociety. Scientistshaverepeatedlybeen warned(andtheverywarningsrevealtheattitudesofSovietscientists)nottoviewthemselvesas"superclass 15 humanists"buttoidentifycloselywiththeclassstruggleandthepeople. Theissueof"humanism"appearstohavebeenaparticularlysensitiveone.Humanism,acentral Marxistconcern,canserveasapointofdepartureforacritiqueofbothStalinism andthepresentSovietsystem. Moreover,thedehumanizingpotentialofmodernsciencehasgivennewurgencytotheproblemofdefining humanisminthemodernworld.Theofficialview,statedauthoritativelyinaseriesofmajorarticlesinthekey ideologicaljournals,hasbeenunequivocal:"Socialismisprofoundlyhumanisticbecauseiteliminatesthe exploitationofmanbyman."Accordingly,"itisalsohumanisticwheniterectsthebuildingofanewsocietyat thepriceofextraordinaryhardshipsinthe persistentstruggle againsttheold.Itisalsohumanisticwhen conditionshavealreadybeencreatedforthethoroughdevelopmentoftheindividualbutsocietyisstill compelledtocontroltheactivitiesofapersonandhislabordisciplineand,withintheframeworkandinthe interestsofallofsocietyandofthecommunisteducationofaparticularindividual,doesnotpermitindividuals toabusethefreedomspresentedbysocialism,doesnotpermitpeoplewithanundevelopedsenseof responsibilityto violatethenormsofthesocialistcommunity,suppressestheoppositionofantisocialistforces, etc."16 Thisargumenthasbeenbuttressedbytheassertionthat"thesocalled'eternal'valuesfreedom, democracy,humanism,individualdignity...area weaponinthehandsofthebourgeoisietomisleadandfo6l * themasses,"17 andthattheissueofStalinismisessentiallyirrelevant. Viewssuchasthesehavebeenexpressedinthecontextofabroaderemphasisontheargumentthatan ideologicalperspectiveoncontemporaryrealityisabsolutelyessentialinordertoobtainaccurateinsightintothat reality,andthatscientificcommunism asdefinedbytheSovietleadersprovidestheonlyvalidperspective. Althoughthelatterisnotanewproposition, thereisnoveltyinthedegreetowhichithasbeenlinkedinthemore
*

"Atthepresenttimeattemptsarebeingmadetodiscreditwhatwasdoneintheprocessofbuildingsocialismbyusingthebugbearof 'Stalinism.'The'Stalinism'bugbearisbeingusedtointimidateunstablepersons,tospreadthethoughtthatallfirmnessandrevolutionary characterinpolitics,uncompromisingnessinideology,andconsistencyinthedefenseofMarxismare, ifyouplease,'Stalinism'"(D.I. Chesnokov,"AggravationoftheIdeologicalandPoliticalStruggleandContemporaryPhilosophicalRevisionism,"VoprosyFilosofii,No.12, 1968).

58

prestigiousSovietscholarlyjournals,aswellasinmassmedia,withanattackonWesterntheoriesofideological erosion,oftheemergenceofageneraltypeofindustrialsociety,and oftheubiquityofnewbureaucraticpolitical elitesinalldevelopedpoliticalsystems.Sovietcriticshavemadeitclearthattheyviewthesetheoriesasnotonly * scientificallyerroneousbutpoliticallyharmfulandprobablydesigneddeliberatelytounderminecommunism. Sovietscholarshavebeenparticularlyvigorousinrejectingthetheoryof"convergence"oftheSovietand Western,particularlyAmerican,systems.IntheSovietview,thecrucialanddistinctiveelementoftheSoviet systemrulebythe communistpartyastheexpressionofproletariandictatorshiphasbeenunderestimatedby Westernthinkers,whohavesuperficiallyfocusedontheexternalcharacteristicsofamodernindustrialsociety, withoutdelvingmorepenetratinglyintothequestionofitssociopoliticalessence.ThoughsomeoftheSoviet criticismsarenotwithoutmerit(andthereisacurioustouchofneoMarxistdeterminisminsomeoftheWestern theoriesofconvergence),itisstrikinghowmuchintellectualefforthasbeeninvestedinassertingandproving thedistinctivecharacterofthecommunistsystem.Itonceagainrevealstheimportanceattachedtothenotion thattheSovietpastislinkedtoafuturethatisabsolutelydistinctiveandnotpartofabroaderstreamofman's politicalevolution. ItalsomakespossibletheargumentthattheSovietsystemisfreeofthedilemmasthatbeset contemporarymanelsewhere,anditfreesSovietcommunistsfromtheresponsibilityofengaginginacross ideologicaldialogueaboutthese dilemmas. TheofficialSovietdefinitionofforeignproblemsischaracterizedbysimilarintellectualinflexibility. ThisisnottosaythattheSovietleadershipandelitearemisinformedorignorantaboutbasicfactsor developments.ThereisnodoubtthatthelevelofSovietovertandcovertreportingofworldaffairshasimproved considerably,andthatfactualmisrepresentationdesignedtomeetanticipatedideologicalpreferenceshas declined.SpecializedSovietscholarlyjournalsonAfricaorAsiaSovietanalysesoftheCommonMarket,or SovieteffortstodevelopsystematicstudiesoftheUnitedStatesgobeyondpurelyideologicalformulasand reflecttheimportanceattachedtothedeeperunderstandingofregionaldevelopments.SomescholarlySoviet journalsonworldaffairs(forexample, MirovaiaEkonomikaiMezhdunarodnyeOtnoshenia)comparevery favorablywiththeirbestWesterncounterpartsintermsofsystematiccoverage,documentation,andscholarly rigor.Specializedresearchinstitutes,suchastheInstituteofWorldEconomyandInternationalAffairs,are apparentlybeingmorefrequentlyconsultedinthepreparationofpolicy,andthisdoubtlesscontributestogreater sophisticationinthedecisionmakingprocess. Yet,inspiteofthis,the Sovietconceptionofthebroadframeworkofcontemporaryreality,as articulatedbytopleadersandevenaspresentedinscholarlyjournals,remainsfundamentallydogmatic.The basicpremisecontinuestobetheManichaeannotionoftheantagonisticdichotomybetweenthesocialistandthe capitalistworlds(orbetweengoodandevil).Thoughwarbetweenthesetwoworldsisnolongersaidtobe "fatalisticallyinevitable,"andthedestructivenessofnuclearweaponsdictatesthe necessityofpeaceful coexistenceindeed,sometimesevenclosercooperationistacticallydesirablebecauseofotherconsiderations (forexample,theSinoSovietconflict)theunderlyingrealityofourageisstillsaidtobethecompetition betweenthetwosystems:"Twoantagonistic socioeconomicsystemsarepittedagainsteachothertodayina struggleofunprecedentedscopeandviolencewhichaffectsthelifeofhumansocietyinallitsaspects.The antagonistsarecapitalismandsocialism."18 Eventuallyoneortheotherwillhavetoprevail, andSovietanalysts areconfidentthattheyknowwhichoneitwillbe.Thisthemerunslikeathreadthroughallmajorspeeches, foreignpolicyanalyses,orscholarlycommentariesonworldaffairs. Itwouldbeanerrortodismisstheabove asmerelyaritualisticactofobeisancetodoctrine,ortoview itasasignoffanaticalandimplacablemilitancy.Itsimportanceliesintheinfluenceoftheideological frameworkonmoreimmediate,andotherwisequitewellinformed,policyjudgments.Thoughfarfrom committingSovietleaderstoshorttermmilitancy,theideologicalframeworkdoesinhibitthemfromthinkingof
*

ForasystematicandwelldocumentedSovietcriticism,seeL.Moskvichev,"The'Deideologization'Theory:SourcesandSocialEssence," MirovaiaEkonomikaiMezhdunarodnyeOtnoshenia, No.12,1968.IntheSovietview,boththeMarxistrevisionistsandWesterntheoristsof ideologicalevolution,erosion,ordeideologizationofSovietMarxismhaveessentiallybeenengagedinapoliticalstratagemdesignedto underminetheideologicalfoundationsofSovietpower.Thepresentauthorwasparticularlysingledoutforcriticisminthisconnection.See, forexample,ProfessorE.Modrzhinskaya's"AntiCommunismDisguisedasEvolutionism"(InternationalAffairs [Moscow],No.1,1969). SheseesinWesternsociologicalwritinganefforttopave"theideologicalwayforsubversionagainstSocialism.Amongthesetheoriesare: thetheoryofstagesineconomicgrowthpropoundedbyWaltRostow(awellknownU.S.reactionarypoliticianandsociologist)thedoctrine ofthesingleindustrialsociety,whosemostfamouspropagandististhereactionaryFrenchpublicistandsociologistRaymondAronthe convergencedoctrine,andthecapstoneofthemallthetheoryofevolution,whichhasbeenelaboratedingreatestdetailbyZbigniew Brzezinski,DirectoroftheResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairsatColumbiaUniversity.... "TheprincipalfeaturesoftheevolutionarytheoryaresetoutinBrzezinski'swritingsofthelastfewyears....Adistinctiveandhighly notablefeatureoftheevolutiontheoryisthedesirablesequenceofchange:fromideologytopoliticsleadingtochangesinthesocio economicsystem,andnottheotherwayround,fromeconomicchangestosubsequentpoliticaltransformation,asthevotariesofconvergence suggest"(p.16). Thisemphasissometimesleadstostatementsthatvergeonthecomical,aswhenitwasassertedin amajoranalysisof"Problemsofthe LastThirdoftheCentury"that"MarxismLeninismhasnoneedtoreconcileideaswithfacts."Theauthorapparentlyinallseriousness addedthat"accordingtotherecentdecreeoftheSovietCommunistParty'sCentralCommittee...theoutstandingrevolutionaryeventsof thetwentiethcenturyhaveallbeenassociatedwithLeninism"(V.A.Cheprakov,Izvestia,August18,1968). Thus,aSovietscholar,inanambitiousefforttoanalyzecontemporaryworldaffairs,assertsthat"theoutcomeofthecompetitionrulesout accident.Victoryordefeatarenecessary,thatis,unavoidable,andlawgoverned.Defeatcomesbutonceinsuchcompetition.Therewillbe noreturnmatch,no'replay,'nochanceofrevenge"(Kh.Momjan,TheDynamicTwentiethCentury,Moscow,1968,pp.107108).

59

accommodationandstabilityasendsinthemselves,sincethatwouldbetantamounttonegatingthecommunist viewofhistoryasafluid,dialecticalprocess.Accordingly,anofficialSovietanalysisoftheissuescoveredinthe firsttwochaptersofthisbookwouldrunalongtheselines:"Thepresenteraisdominatedbytheappearanceof theworldsocialistsystem.Itsemergenceis adecisiveforceofchange,notonlyacceleratingthepaceofsocialist revolutionbutalsosuccessfullydeterringtheimperialistsfromcountermeasures.Waristhereforenolonger inevitable,andpeacefulrivalrybetweenthetwosystems,andespecially betweentheUSSRandtheUnited States,ispossible.Theeventualoutcomeofthecompetitionis,however,foreordained,giventheinherent historicalsuperiorityofthecommunistsystem.Inthemeantime,inmanyareasmoreactivecooperationistobe sought,inordertoavertwarortopromoteeconomicorsocialdevelopmentoftheThirdWorld.Insomeplaces thepreconditionsforthepeacefultransitiontosocialismalreadyexistinsomeofthelessdevelopedcountriesa violentrevolutionwillbenecessary,butitwouldbeatacticalerrortoprecipitateittoosoon(asurgedbythe MaoistsortheCastroites)." AuthoritativeSovietanalystshave,moreover,arguedthattheydetectsignsofintensifiedcrisisinthe moreadvancedcapitaliststates."Politicalcrisesnowoccurfarmoreoftenthan,letussay,tentotwentyyears ago,andnolongeronlyonthe'periphery'butinthechiefcentersofimperialism.Thesociopoliticalcrisesinthe capitaliststatesarenowspreadingunderconditionsofanexacerbatedfinancialcrisisanddeteriorationinthe overalleconomicsituationoftheimperialistcamp."19 Animportantnewfactorissaidtobethegrowing radicalismofWesternintellectuals,themajorityofwhomunlikethoseofthepreWorldWarIIeraarenow "becomingamoreactiveprogressiveforce."IntheSovietview,thispointstothefurtherintensificationofthe internalcrisisoftheadvancedcapitalistworld,afactorthatismoreimportantthanthechangesoreventhe revolutionaryupheavalsthatarelikelytooccurintheThirdWorld. ThedecisiveequationthusremainsthatofAmericanSovietcompetition.Accordingly,thecrucial operationalquestionleavingasideimmediatetacticalconsiderationsisnotwhetheragivencourseofaction willadvancethecauseofworldcommunismbuthowitwillaffecttheSovietAmericanbalance:infavorofthe SovietUnionoragainstit?TheSovietpolicymakersensesnocontradictionbetweenSovietinterestsandthoseof theinternationalmovement,and hethusexperiencesnoideologicalembarrassmentinassistingantiAmerican elementsotherwiseideologicallyforeigntocommunismorinseekingtoreachaccommodationwiththeUnited Statesonspecificissues.ThisclosesubjectiveidentificationofpurelySovietstateinterestswiththeideological cause,andtheresultinggoalorientedflexibilityintactics,renderimpossiblethesimplisticjudgmentthatthe Sovietsareeitherideologicallyobsessedorideologicallycynical. Inregardtotheideologicalconfrontation,Sovietleadershaveventuredtheopinionthat"the contemporarystageinhistoricaldevelopmentisdistinguishedbyintensesharpeningoftheideologicalstruggle betweencapitalismandsocialism."ThisconclusionwasformallyexpressedbytheSovietCentralCommitteein 20 April1968. Itwasfollowedbyasystematicdevelopmentofthepropositionthattheworldiswitnessing"the risingroleofideology"andthatideologicalcompetitionininternationalaffairsisgaininginintensity.The SovietinvasionofCzechoslovakiainAugust1968gaverisetoparticularlyextensiveelaborationsofthistheme. ItwasexplicitlyarguedthatinternalchangeinCzechoslovakiawasabettedbyWesternpoliciesof"peaceful engagement"thathadastheirultimateobjectivethetransformationofcommunismintosocialdemocracy.This policywaslabeledbySovietwritersasthenewWesternstrategyof"peacefulcounterrevolution."21 Theemphasisputonthecontinuingconfrontationbetweenthetwoconflicting ideologicalsystems andthusonthenotionthatcontemporaryrealitycanbeunderstoodintermsofsuchadichotomyisclosely relatedtotheSovietUnion'sdefinitionofitsownroleininternationalcommunismandofcontemporary communismitself.InspiteoftheenormouschangesininternationalcommunismprecipitatedbytheSinoSoviet dispute,bythedeclineofSovietauthority,andbythedemoralizationresultingfromthemilitaryinvasionofone communiststatebyanother,theSovietleadershavecontinuedtoupholdtheorthodoxconceptofasingle movementstillledbyMoscow.Theyhaveaccordinglycontinuedtopressfor"unityconferences"ofasmany communistpartiesaspossible,eventhoughtheresultshaveoftenworkedagainstunity.Theyhave also continuedtoassertadogmaticinterpretationofideologyandhaveconsequentlybeenunderthenecessityofex * communicatingthosewhodiffer. TheresulthasbeennotonlytheoftrepeatedcondemnationofrevisionistsorofChinesecommunists butthe increasingintellectualinabilitytoassimilateindoctrineeithernewrevolutionarypracticeorthe progressiveevolutionofcommunisminpower.TheSovietattitudetowardtherebellionofWesternyouthisa caseinpoint.Assoonasitbecameclearthattheseyoungpeoplewerenotpreparedtoacceptestablished communistleadership andthattheirideologueswerecriticalofSovietbureaucratism theSovietattitude becamevehementlyhostile.Marcusewasespeciallyattackedforoveremphasizingtherole oftheyoungandthe
*

"Onlyonesocialtheory,oneteaching,iscapableofexpressingthecontentanddirectionofworldprocessesinourepochindepththisis Marxism Leninism.Onlyonephilosophyiscapableofinterpretingallthecontradictionsofthepresentstageofhistoricaldevelopment.... CommunistshavealwaysregardedLeninismandcontinuetoregarditnotasapurelyRussianbutaninternationalMarxistdoctrine"(F. Konstantinov,"MarxismLeninism:A SingleInternationalTeaching,"Pravda, June14,1968).TheforegoingviewpermitsSovietideologues toassertthat"thephilosophical'thoughtsofMaoTsetung'arephilistine,oftenanarchoidealisticeclecticismwhichhasnothingincommon withMarxistLeninistphilosophy"(A.Rumyantsev,writingin Kommunist,No.2,1969).ItshouldbenotedthatRumyantsevand KonstantinovareleadingSovietideologues.*Theseattackssometimestookgrotesqueforms.Thus,aRadioMoscowcommentator,Valentin Zakharov,devotedanentireprogramtothethemethatMarcuseandBrzezinskiwerejointlyinvolvednaturallyinbehalfoftheCIAin organizing"theCzechoslovakcounterrevolution"in1968(RadioMoscow,August19,1969).

60

intellectualsattheexpenseoftheclassicalconceptofarevolutionbytheworkingclass.*Ineffect,Soviet theoristsrefusedtotakeseriouslyintoaccountthepotentiallyrevolutionaryconsequencesoftheeducational upsurgeinthedevelopedworld. Similarly,whentheCastroiterevolutioninLatinAmericamovedintodirectguerrillaaction,the establishedproSovietCommunistpartiesobjected,andtheyweresupportedbyMoscow.Here,too,the preferencewasforthetried,citybased,partydirected,proletarianrevolutionarymodel.WhenCzechoslovak politicalleadersbegantosuggestthatLeninism,aproductofspecificallyRussianconditions,wasperhapsno longerthemostsuitableguideforthefurtherevolutionofCzechoslovakcommunism,theSovietreactionwasto chargedeviation.Thus,inspiteofmanypronouncementsconcerningmultipleroadstosocialism,theSoviet partyhasremainedweddedtotheconceptofdogmatic universalism,whichisuniversalonlyinthesensethatit seestheSovietexperienceasfundamentallyuniversalinrelevance.

PerspectiveonTomorrow
ThisrigiditybothconditionsandrestrictsSovietthinkingaboutthefuture.Studiesofthefuturehave becomebothfashionableandwidespreadintheWest.Theyhaveinvolvedsystematicattemptstolink technologicalprojectionswithsocialforecasting,aswellaswithmorecritical,normativediscussions.The philosophicalramificationsofscientificdiscoveries,especiallyastheypertaintothehumanbeing,havebecome theobjectofaparticularlyintensedialogue.Thepoliticalimplicationsoftechnologyhavealsoattractedthe attentionofscholarsandincreasinglyevenofpoliticalleaders.GiventhefutureorientedthrustofMarxist thought,onewould haveexpectedtheSovietUniontobeintheforefrontoftheseinvestigationsandanalyses. Thishasonlybeenpartiallytrue. SystematicSovieteffortstostudythefuturewerespurredbyhighleveldecisionstakenattheTwenty thirdPartyCongress.Initswake,specialstudygroupswereestablishedforthatpurposeinanumberofSoviet institutesforexample,theSovietAcademy'sgroupforSocialandTechnologicalForecasting.Inaddition, manyinformalgroupsweresetuptobringSovietscholarsand intellectualstogether.Aspecialannual publicationentirelydevotedtothefutureofsciencewasestablishedin1966,anditsfirstnumbershaveincluded 22 contributionsbybothSovietandnonSovietscholars. Sovietscholarsalsoestablishedusefulcontactswith similarstudygroupsandpublicationsintheWest,includingtheUnitedStates. SolidworkhasbeendonebySovietscholars,primarilyintheareaoftechnologicaleconomic forecasting.Forexample,in1964theSovietphilosophicaljournal, VoprosyFilosofii,beganpublishingaseries ofarticlesonthethemeof"TheScientificTechnicalRevolutionandItsSocialConsequences."Onthewhole, these articleshavebeenseriousandfrequentlyveryinformativetreatmentsofsuchsubjectsasthemethodology offorecasting,theorganizationalproblemsofscienceinthecontextofthescientificexplosion,theroleof cybernetics,comparativeanalysesofscientificdevelopmentandprojectionsfortheUnitedStatesandtheSoviet 23 Union,tosaynothingofmorespecificallySovietorientedeconomicandtechnologicalprognoses. Incontrasttotheseefforts,therehasbeenastrikingpaucityofpolitical,ideological,orphilosophical studiesfocusedontheinteractionswithprojectedtechnologicaleconomicchanges.ThereisnodoubtthatSoviet * intellectualsareawareoftheunavoidablelinkbetweenthetwo, butpublishedSovietdiscussionshavebeen limitedprimarilytocriticalevaluationsofWesternliteratureonthesubject.Intheircruderformsparticularly whenappearinginthetheoreticalorganoftheparty,Kommunistthese"evaluations"havebeenlimitedto denunciation.+Moreseriousthoughstillprimarilynegativeassessmentshaveappearedinotherjournals, particularlyintheorganoftheInstituteonWorldEconomics.Inbothcases,however,thetendencyhasbeento denythepossibilityofeithertheevolutionofWesternpolitiesintonewpostindustrialformsnolonger determinedbythecapitalistphaseofindustrializationorthecapacityofthesenewformstoovercomethe individualcrisisofalienationandfrustrationassociatedwiththecapitalistsystem. ThisiswhysomePolishcommunists,thoughloyaltothecommonideology,havenotedcriticallythat "wehavetogiveamorespecificanswertothequestionastowhatreallyhappensinmodernmonopolistic
*

Inastatementremarkablyfreeofideologicalcant,oneSovietscientist andnovelistremarked,"Thefuturehasbornethebruntofall kindsofemotions:optimism,blindirrationalhope,andblackdespair.Ithasbeenthreatenedbybothhystericalseersandprecisecalculations. Attemptshave beenmadetopoisonitorsimplytoannihilateit,toturnitbackward,toreturnittocaves.Ithassurvived.Todaywehavethe opportunitytogiveitseriousandthoughtfulstudy.Today,perhapsasneverbeforeinhumanhistory,thefuturedependsonthepresentand demandsanewapproach.Itisfraughtwithcriseswecannotassesstoday.Crisesconnectednotonlywithadifferentconceptionoffreedom, butalsoadifferentideaofindividuality"(DaniilGranin,"AndYet...," InostrannaiaLiteratura [Moscow],No.1,1967). Incontrast,thefivevolumework SocialismandCommunism,preparedbytheInstituteofPhilosophyoftheSovietAcademyofSciencesina comprehensiveefforttosumupthelikelyshapeofSovietsocietyundercommunism,refrains fromanyanalysisofthesocialtensions broughtonbythescientificrevolution.Itpresentsauniformlyblissfulpictureofthefuture.+Forexamplesofparticularlyprimitive writings,seeG.Gerasimov,"TheFalsifiersoftheFuture,"Kommunist,No.2,1968,forcriticismofAron,Fourastie,andothersorYuri Zhukov'svariousarticlesattackingmyearlierarticle,"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge."Sovietcommentatorswereparticularlyincensed bymyobservation("AmericaintheTechnetronicAge")that"theworldisontheeveofatransformationmoredramaticinitshistoricand humanconsequencesthanthatwroughteitherbytheFrenchortheBolshevikrevolutions.Viewedfromalongperspective,thesefamousrev olutionsmerelyscratchedthesurfaceofthehumancondition.Thechangestheyprecipitatedinvolvedalterationsinthedistributionofpower andpropertywithinsocietytheydidnotaffecttheessenceofindividualandsocialexistence.Lifepersonalandorganizedcontinuedon muchasbefore,eventhoughsomeofitsexternalforms(primarilypolitical)weresubstantiallyaltered.Shockingthoughitmaysoundtotheir acolytes,bytheyear2000itwillbeacceptedthatRobespierreandLeninweremildreformers."

61

capitalismandwhatinfluencethetechnicalrevolutionhasonit."Theyhaveobservedthatcommunisttheoryhas noconceptofthetransitionfrommoderncapitalismtosocialism, thatithasnotfacedtheproblemofthe increasingtechnologicalobsolescenceofcommunisteconomiesascomparedtothoseoftheadvancedWest,that ithasstilltoconfrontthefactthatsocialismthoughithasprovenitsmettleinovercomingindustrial backwardnesshasyettoproveitscapacityforscientificinnovation,andthatithasnotgivenanythoughttothe 24 significanceofconflictsbetweengenerations. Inafarrangingandthoughtfuldiscussion,aRumanian communist,appealing"ForaMarxistTheoryoftheTechnicalScientificRevolution,"putitevenmorebluntly: "InrecentyearstheWesthasevidencedamoresustainedconcernwiththetheoreticalelaborationoftheessence ofthescientifictechnicalrevolutionanditssocialandhumanconnections....Wecannotasyetspeakofthe 25 existenceofacoherent,unifiedMarxist theoryofthescientifictechnologicalrevolution." Inshort,Soviet politicalthoughthasfailedtoprovideanysystematicdevelopmentofideasconcerningthefuturepoliticaland ideologicalevolutionoftheSovietsystemitselfor,forthatmatter, oftheworldrevolutionaryprocessunder novelhistoricconditions.Thisisnotonlybecauseintellectualdissenthasbeenrestrictedtoinformal, "underground"formsof expressionbutprimarilybecausetherehasbeennoppenendedcreativepolitical ideologicaldiscussionamongSovietMarxiststhemselves.Sovietideologyisnolongershapedthroughthe creativeinteractionoftheoreticalthoughtandpracticeaswasthe caseuntilStalin'spowerbecamesupreme butistheproductofabureaucraticprocessofdefinition,aprocessentirelymonopolizedbycareerparty officials.IdeologyemanatesfromtheofficesoftheCentralCommittee,whereitispreparedonthebasisof committeereportsandstaffpapersbeforebeingsubmittedtothePolitburoforgroupapproval.Anideology whosecontentisdeterminedbyapoliticalprocessisnotlikelytobepreoccupiedwithspeculative,andtherefore potentiallydisruptive,issues. Ithaslittletodowithintellectualcreativityandagreatdealtodowithbureaucratic imperatives. Paradoxically,bureaucraticsterilityinthoughtpromptsintensifiedemphasisonrevolutionaryrhetoric andsymbolism.Becausetheoncerevolutionary doctrinehasbecomesointertwinedwiththevestedinterestsof guardianswhoarethemselveshighlysensitivetoRussiannationalinterests,thereisatendencytotakeide ologicalrefugeinincreasedemphasisonrevolutionarysymbolism.Thisisamanifestationcommontoall doctrinesintheirintellectualdecline:aspracticeincreasinglydeviatesfromprescription,symbolismandrhetoric gaininimportance.Theconsequence,however,istocongealcertainformulasandclaims,makingintellectual innovationmoredifficult,evenwhenontheoperationallevelideologicalrestraintsareincreasinglyevaded. Theresultisaconditionofarrestedideologicaldevelopment,ofideologicalpetrifactionratherthan * erosion,Marxistthoughtremainingvital onlyoutsidetheSovietUnion. Thevisionoftomorrowisreducedto meaninglessandincreasinglyvaguedeclarations,suchastheconclusiontotheofficialSovietprognosisforthe remainderofthiscentury:"ArmedwithMarxistLeninistthoughtandfilledwithhistoricaloptimism,theleading revolutionaryforcesoftheworldwillmarchintothefuture."26

3.TheSovietFuture
Thecrucialquestiontodayis:WhenwilltheSovietUnionbreakwiththeStalinistlegacy?Withoutsuch abreakitwillremaindifficultfortheSovietleaderstodiagnosetheproblemsoftheirownsocietyaccuratelyand tomaketheSovietUniontrulyrelevanttotheintellectualandinternationaldilemmasofourtime.Suchabreak neednotrequiretheabandonmentofsocialismorofMarxism,butitwouldrequirethetransformationofa politicalsystemthattodaybothreflectsandisbuttressedbyanobsolescentandbureaucratizedideologyof powerintoonemoreinkeepingwiththeemerginghumanist,universalistmoodofourtime.Itisnoexaggeration tosaythoughsomeanticommunistsmaybeloathtoadmitthisthatthepeaceofmankinddependsinlarge measureontheSovietUnion'sreturntotheoccidentalMarxisttraditionfromwhichthemoreorientalLeninism Stalinismhaddivertedit,butnotnecessarilyontheoutrightabandonmentofMarxism. IdeologicalchangeintheSovietUnionwillinevitablybecloselyconnectedwithsocioeconomic change,butitwouldbeamistaketoviewthelatterasdictatingtheformer.AMarxistframeworkofanalysisis theoneleastsuitedtounderstandingcommunistpolitics,inwhichthepoliticalsuperstructureactuallydominates theeconomicbase.PoliticalchangeintheSovietUnionwillnecessarilybeinfluencedbytheemergenceofa newsocialelite, moretechnologicalinitsorientation,butitwillbeevenmoreaffectedbythechangesinthe internalcharacterandoutlookoftheprofessional,rulingpartybureaucracy,andbythedegreetowhichthiselite succeedsincopingwithinternalSovietproblems.

InternalDilemmas
Theseproblemsarelikelytodeveloponthelevelsofbotheconomictechnologicalefficiencyand politicalideologicaldissent.TherecanbelittledoubtthattheSovieteconomywillcontinuetogrowintheyears ahead,butitdoesappearlikelythat,barringsomeunforeseendevelopmentineithertheUnitedStatesorthe

ThismatchestheVictorianismandgraynessofmuchofcontemporarySovietlife.LincolnSteffensexclaimed,onvisitingtheSovietUnion intheearly1920s,"Ihavebeenintothefutureanditworks!"TodaymoreandmorevisitorstotheSovietUnioncomebacksaying,"Ihave been intothepastanditisabore."

62

* SovietUnion,theabsolutegapbetweenthetwocountrieswillwidenevenfurther. Thegrowthwilltherefore probablybeinsufficienttosatisfytheideologicalambitionsofthepoliticalelite,anditisevenlesslikelyto satisfyrisingsocialaspirations.TheseaspirationsarecertaintoescalateascomparisonwiththeWestmakesit moreandmoreapparentthatmajorsectorsofSovietsocietyhaveremainedextraordinarilyantiquated. Sovietbackwardnessisparticularlyevidentinagriculture.Agriculturalproductivityhasleapfrogged duringthelastseveraldecadesinmostdevelopedcountriesandlatelyeveninanumberoftheunderdeveloped ones.Notsointhe SovietUnion,whereproductivitysteadilydeclinedandhasonlyrecentlyrisensomewhat. TheSovietruralpopulationisunderemployed,undercompensated,andunderproductive.Theresolutionofthe Sovietagriculturalproblemisoneofthemoreurgentbut alsoideologicallymoresensitiveproblemsonthe Sovietagenda.(ThetechnologicalunderdevelopmentofSovietagricultureisreflectedinalaborforce distributionthatplacestheSovietUnionconsiderablybehindthemoreadvancedsectorsoftheglobe.)

TABLE9. DISTRIBUTION OFLABORFORCE

PERCENTAGEDISTRIBUTIONBYSECTOR

AREA UnitedStates WesternEurope Oceania Japan USSR

Agriculture 8 14 23 33 45

Industry 39 45 34 28 28

Services 53 41 43 39 27
32

20 LatinAmerica 48 Source: InternationalLaborReview, JanuaryFebruary1967.

Intheindustrialsector,moreadvancedthanagriculture,theremarkableachievementsofSovietscienceinsuch areasasspaceandweaponstechnologyhaveobscuredasituationthatisalsofarfromsatisfactoryforamodern, industrializedsociety.IthasbeenestimatedthattheSovietUnion(allowingforthedifferentialinactualcosts) 27 hasinrealtermsbeenspendingapproximatelyasmuchforresearchanddevelopmentastheUnitedStates. Moreover,Sovietscientificmanpowerhasbeengrowingatanimpressiverateandnowmatchesthatofthe UnitedStates.Inaddition,Soviettheoreticalworkinanumberoffields,particularlyphysics,hasbeenofthe firstorder. Yettheoverallsocioeconomicbenefitsofthe Sovietscientificefforthavebeenrelativelymeager. ThoughSovietleaderswerequicktocapitalizeideologicallyontheirinitialspacesuccessesbyclaimingthat theyprovedthesuperiorityofcommunism(anassertionquietlyallowedtofadeaftertheAmericanlandingon themoon),thefactremainsthattheSovietUnionhasnotbeenabletoproducetechnologicallyadvanced productscapableofpenetratingeconomicallyrewardingworldmarketsinthefaceofWesterncompetition,nor hasitsatisfiedmorethantherudimentaryneedsofdomesticconsumption.Eveninsucharelativelyelementary industrialfieldasautomobileproduction,theSovietUnionhasbeencompelledtorelyonforeignhelp(currently 28 Italian)toproduceworkableandeconomicallyfeasibleautomobiles. Therigidseparationofsecretmilitary researchfromtherestoftheeconomy,aswellastheconcentrationofSovietscientificresearchersininstitutes remotefromindustry,hasmeantthatresearchbreakthroughshaveeitherneverbeendeveloped,developedonly formilitarypurposes,ordevelopedonlyafterconsiderable delay. TheSovietlagisunmistakableincomputers, transistors,lasers,pulsars,andplastics,aswellasintheequallyimportantareasofmanagementtechniques, laborrelations,psychology,sociology,economictheory,andsystemsanalysis.
*

ItcanbeestimatedthatiftheGNPoftheUnitedStatesgrowsat3.5percentperannum,by1985itwillbeover$1.5trillioniftheratesof the1960scontinue,itwillalreadybe$1.7trillionby1980iftheSovietGNPgrowsatthehigherrateof5percent,by1985itwillbejust under$800billionifitgrowsattheevenhigherrateof7percent,by1985theGNPwillbeapproximately$1.1trillion.Thustheabsolute gapwillnotnarrowandcouldevenwidenconsiderablybetween1965and1985. In1961theSovietleadersformallyadoptedapartyprogramwhich,amongotherthings,promisedthatby1970theSovietUnionwillhave surpassedtheUnitedStatesinindustrialoutput.Clearly,thishasnothappened. SovietAcademicianV.Trapeznikovestimatedthat98percentofSovietresearchersworkininstitutes,whereas60percentofAmerican researchersworkdirectlyintherelevantindustries.HealsoestimatesthatapproximatelyhalftheSovietresearchdiscoveriesareobsolescent bythetimeoftheirdevelopment(Pravda, January19,1967).SeealsotheinterviewwithAcademicianV.M.Glushkov,inKomsomolskaia Pravda, May15,1968,inwhichhecallsfortherapidtrainingof"systemsmanagers,"askillinwhich hefeelsthatAmericansexceland whichhasnoequivalentintheSovietUnion.HealsourgedtheregularretrainingofSovietmanagers,againcitingAmericanprecedents. "Certainsectors,includingofcoursespaceandsomemilitaryR&D,andanimportantpartoftheironandsteelindustry,aretechnically veryadvancedbutmanyindustries,particularlyintheconsumergoodssector,arefarlesstechnicallydevelopedthaninmajorWestern countries.... "TheimpressionwhichemergesfrombothSovietandWesternstudiesisthattheSovietUnionislesstechnicallyadvancedthantheUnited Statesinallbutafewpriorityindustries,andthatinanumberofmajorindustriestheSovietUnionistechnologicallybehindthe industrializedcountriesofWestern Europe"(Science PolicyintheUSSR,pp.9,476). AccordingtoastudyoftheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,theSovietUnion,whichin1954wasthefirstnationtoadaptnuclear energyforpeacefuluses,hadby1969beensurpassedbytheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdomby1975itwillbebehindtheUnited States,theUnitedKingdom,Japan,Canada,Sweden,andGermany,withitsmegawattageapproximatelyfourteentimeslessthanthatofthe

63

Tocorrectthiscondition,thegovernmentinitiatedin1968aseriesofreformsdesignedtospur scientificresearchanddevelopmentandtoimprovethequalityofmanagement.TheCentralCommitteeofthe partypassedaspecialresolutioninOctober1968("OnMeasurestoRaisetheEfficiencyoftheWorkofScien tificOrganizationsandtoAcceleratetheUtilizationofScientificandTechnicalAchievementsintheNational Economy"),highlycriticalofSovietresearchanddevelopmentandinitiatingaseriesofreforms,whichin essenceupgradedthestatusofresearchersworkingdirectlyinindustrytothatheldbyscientistsemployedin purelyscientificinstitutes,createdresearchlaboratoriesbasedinindustrialenterprises,andofferedbonusesand awardsforinnovation.AsAcademicianTrapeznikovputit,"Animportantitemintheresolutionisthe 29 establishmentofcompetitioninscientifictechnicalideasandproposals." Itisfarfromcertainthatthesereformswillsufficetogenerateacreativeandsociallysignificantburst ofinnovationandadaptation.Sovietscientistsrecognizethatcreativityrequires"anatmosphereoffree discussion,polemics,andairingofideas,evenifsomeofthemareradicallywrong."30 Thisfactorisinturnre latedtotheideologicalandinstitutionalorganizationofsocietyasawhole,andcannotbecorrectedmerelybya feworganizationaladjustments.TheOECDstudy,SciencePolicyintheUSSR (1969),whichrevealsina detailed,statisticallydocumentedmannertheextraordinarydisproportionbetweenthescaleoftheSovieteffort anditsrelativelymeagersocioeconomicconsequences,reinforcestheviewthatideologicalpolitical * centralizationresultsatbestinacapricioussciencepolicyandatworstinacatastrophicone. TherecanbenodoubtthatintheyearstocometheSovietUnionwillaccomplishmanyremarkable scientificfeats,especiallyintheinternationallyprestigiousrealmofspaceinvestigationsandinscientificareas relatedtodefenseresearch.ItsmilitarytechnologywillalsocontinuetomatchAmerica'sandinsomeareaswill doubtlesssurpassit.Thiswillbedonebycrashprogramsconcentratingeconomicresourcesandscientifictalent. TheSovietorganizationalstructureisremarkablysuitedtosuchprograms.Butthecrucialquestioniswhether SovietscienceandindustrialmanagementcanprovideSovietsocietywiththebroadgaugedpatternofscientific innovationnecessarybothtoassureinternalprogressandtoadvancetheinternationalpositionoftheSoviet Union. Theforcesopposingfarreachingscientificandeconomicreformsareformidable.Theyareprimarily thebureaucraticpartyelite,especiallythe ideologicalsectors,andsomeoftheupperechelonsofthearmed forces,whofearthatdecentralizationwouldalsomeanthetransferofsomekeyresearchinstitutestononmilitary uses.TheupperechelonsofpartyofficialdomarestilllargelytheproductsoftheStalinistera,andmanyamong themgottheirstartduringthepurges.Paradoxically,andcontrarytoWesternspeculation,themanagerialelite hasalsobeenpartoftheopposition.ThepresentSovietmanagerialgeneration,trainedtooperateina highly confined,hierarchicalsetting,isnotpredisposedtoassumethegreaterpersonalhazardsthatamore decentralized,competitivesystemwouldnecessarilyinvolve.+Proposalsforeconomicreformshave characteristicallycomemostlyfromthetheoreticaleconomists. Theproblemofintellectualfreedompromptsconsiderationsthataremoredirectlyconcernedwith politicsandideology.Itisimpossibletojudgetheextentoffundamental,unorthodoxdissentintheSovietUnion of thelate1960sandearly 1970s. Inlate1968twosuccessiveissuesofthemagazine ProblemsofCommunism weredevotedtotheundergroundwritings,petitions,protests,andappealsofdissentingSovietintellectuals.They madeforremarkableandprofoundlymovingreading,asdid someseparatelypublisheddocumentsinwhich 31 Ukrainianintellectualsprotestedthesuppressionoftheircountry. Thesepublicationsindicatedtheexistenceof anactiveandarticulategroupofintellectuals,largelyconcentratedinMoscowandLeningrad,composedinsome casesoftheoffspringoftheSovietpoliticalelitebutmoreoftenofthechildrenofprominentcommunistswho
UnitedStates(PowerandResearchReactorsinMemberStates). AsBurksputsit,"ThecurveoftechnologicaldevelopmentintheWestisexponential.Syntheticfibers,plastics,nuclearenergy,transistors, digitalcomputers,xerography,lasers,succeedoneanotherinseeminglyendlesssuccession.AsWesterntechnologybecomesmorecomplex, furthermore,thetimelaginvolvedinitsreproductionbyEastEuropeansbecomesgreater.Borrowingtimerunsanywherefromtwotofifteen yearswiththeoddsatleast5050thattheproductwillbe,inWesternterms,obsolescentwhenitfirstappearsontheEasternmarket.In computers,thetimelagforSoviet(nottospeakofEastEuropean)borrowingvariesbetweentwoandtenyears"(Burks,p.8).Seealsodata citedonp.133, supra, especiallyasitconcernscomputers.) * AnexampleofthelatterresultistheLysenkoaffairanditsdisastrouseffectsonSovietbiology.Anextraordinarilyvividandinformative accountoftheaffairisprovidedbytheSovietscientistZ.A.Medvedev,TheRiseandFallofT.D.Lysenko, New York,1969.Medvedev's bookwaswrittenintheSovietUnion,butitspublicationtherewasnotpermitted.+Moreover,asJeremyAzraelhasconvincinglyarguedin his ManagerialPowerinSovietPolitics(Cambridge,Mass.,1966),itmustberecognizedthat"occupationalspecializationcanattainahigh levelwithoutgivingrisetosocialorpoliticalpluralismthatengineersandmanagerscanbegovernedatleastasmuchbytransfunctional ideologicalandpoliticalcommitmentsasbytheir'objective'interestsasincumbentsofeconomicrolesthattheseinterestscanbelargely,if notcompletely,satisfiedwithintheframeworkofapoliticalsystemthatisneitherdemocraticnortechnocraticandthatmenwhoare orientedtowardthemaximizationofpoliticalpowercansuccessfullymaintainapositionofdominanceovermenwhoareorientedtoward theoptimizationofeconomicutilities,althoughtheirdoingsomayrequireimportantsacrifices"(p.175). Itisimportanttodifferentiateherebetweeninstrumental,orthodoxdissentandfundamental,unorthodoxdissent.Thetwoaresometimes confusedbyoutsideobservers,withtheresultthatinstrumentaldissentersarelionizedforhavingrunnonexistentrisksandthegovernment's toleranceofthemisinterpreted asthesignofabasicdeparturefromtheLeninistStalinisttradition.Theclassiccontemporaryexampleis YevgenyYevtushenko.His"dissent"hasbeenprimarilyinstrumentalincontent:ithasaimedatmakingtherelationshipbetweenthepolitical systemand'societymorecompatible,withoutaddressingitselftothequestionwhetherinfactthemorebasic,ideologicalunderpinningsof thesystemneededrethinkingandrevision.Incontrast,preciselybecauseAlexanderSolzhenitsyn'sorPasternak'sworks havehadtheeffect ofquestioningthehistoricalantecedentsofthepoliticalsystemmoresearchingly,theyhavebeenobjectsofmoreassertiveofficial displeasure.

64

hadperishedunderStalin.Thoughanumberofthesedissentershavebeentriedbothprivatelyandpubliclyin MoscowandLeningrad,theyhavenotbeendeterredfromprotesting,andtheydidsoagain,atgrave personalrisk,followingtheSovietoccupationofCzechoslovakia. Forthetimebeingandforsometimetocome,theintellectualandorthodoxdissenterswillinall probabilityremainarelativelysmall,isolatedgroup.Liketheirpredecessorsinthenineteenthcentury,atthe momenttheydonotappearabletoattractbroaderpopularsupport.ThemajorityoftheSovietUnion'surban populationonlyonegeneration removedfromtheirruralsettingarecharacterizedbyasocialorthodoxy basedonarathersimplisticinternalizedideologyandbyasenseofsatisfactionintheirrecentsocial advancement.Moreover,initssocialoriginsandwaysofthinking,theparty isclosertothemassesthanthe * massesaretotheintellectuals. Averyspecialandparticularlyperplexingkindofdissentisposedbyincreasingrestlessnessamongthe SovietUnion'snonRussiannations.Thepoliticalsignificanceofthisphenomenonhaslargelybeenignoredby AmericanscholarsofSovietaffairs.Yetaboutonehalfofthetwohundredandfortymillioninhabitantsofthe SovietUnionarenonRussian,andmanyofthempossessadistinctivesenseoftheirownculturalheritage,their ownlanguage,territory,andhistory.Theirintelligentsia,almostentirelySovietreared,tendstobeincreasingly assertivethoughnotnecessarilysecessionistinattitude.ItisbeginningtodemandalargershareinSoviet decisionmakingaswellasabiggerpartoftheeconomicpie,anditisbecomingincreasinglyleeryof Russification.TosomeextentthisRussificationisdeliberately fosteredbyMoscow,butitisalsothenatural resultofindustrializationandmodernization.OfficialSovietdiscussionsofthisproblem,aswellasattackson thedangersoflocalnationalism,indicatethatSovietleadershipisbecomingapprehensiveindeed,anumberof nonRussianintellectualshavebeentriedandsentencedinrecentyears.Forthemoment,theSovietgovernment hassucceededinconfiningnationalisttendenciestoarelativelyfewintellectualswhileevidenceontheattitude ofnonRussianpartycadrestendstobeambiguoushowever,theveryscaleofthisproblem,aswellasthefact thatnationalismtendstobeinfectiouswhethersuppressedortolerated,wouldsuggestthatintheyearstocome theSovietUnionmightwellbefacedwithanationalityproblemgraverinitspoliticalconsequencesthanthe racialproblemintheUnitedStates. Therumblingsofideologicaldiscontentwithinthescientificcommunityhaveprobablybeenmore immediatelydisturbingtotheparty.ThenowwellknownmanifestobytheprominentSovietnuclearphysicist 32 AndreiSakharov,whichwaspublishedintheWestinmid1968, hadapparentlyfirstbeencirculatedamong Sovietscientistsandthenrevisedbytheauthorinthelightofcomments.ThefactthatsubsequentSoviet responsestoSakharovtookanindirectform,nevermentioninghimbyname,andthathewasnotdenouncedby theusualdeviceofapublicstatementofcondemnationsignedbyhiscolleagues,seemstoindicatethatthe governmentthoughtitpreferabletoavoiddirectconfrontationandpublicdiscussion. Thisdocumentisremarkableinthatitnotonlychallengestherightofideologicalorthodoxytocontinue butalsoattemptstoofferanalternativevisionofthefuture.Insodoing,itexposesSovietrealitytoascathing critique.Sakharov'sprincipalunderlyingassumptioniswellsummarizedbyhisassertionthat"anypreachingof theincompatibilityofworldideologiesandnationsisamadnessandacrime."Hecategoricallyrejectsany restraintwhatsoeveronintellectualfreedomandcondemns"theossifieddogmatismofabureaucraticoligarchy anditsfavoriteweapon, ideologicalcensorship."Inrejectingintellectualsubordinationtothewillof"theparty's centralapparatusanditsofficials,"healsoasks,"Whowillguaranteethattheseofficialsalwaysexpressthe genuineinterestsoftheworkingclassasawholeandthegenuineinterestsofprogressratherthantheirowncaste interests?" Histhesisisthatouragerequiresandcompelsincreasinginternationalcooperationbothtoavoida nuclearwarandtoovercomethedangerstomankindposedbyhunger,overpopulation,andpollutionandthat thiscooperationwilleventuallycomefromtheincreasingconvergenceofthecurrentlydistinctivepoliticaland socialsystems.Inthisconnection,hespecificallyassertsthat,giventheproductiveenergiesoftheAmerican economy,arevolutionintheUnitedStatesincontrasttoasimilarupheavalintheThirdWorldwouldnotbe
*

"Forallitsmodernization,theSovietUnionstillcontainsaverymassive'dark'populationaspiringtobourgeoisamenitiesontheonehand, yetimmersedinsocialistrhetoricontheother.Andwithinthispopulationthereisastrongelementof'grudge'crude,primitive,oftenall toowellfounded,akindoflegendaryforceinitsownrightwhichviewsallprivilegeascorruption,andwhichisdirectedequallyagainst thepoliticalandmanagerialeliteofthepartyandagainsttheintelligentsia.Here,however,theintelligentsiaisatadisadvantage,foritstill carriesthetraditionalburdenofguilttowardthepeople,andthelinesofmanipulationareinthehandsoftheparty"(SidneyMonas, "EngineersorMartyrs:DissentandtheIntelligentsia,"ProblemsofCommunism, SeptemberOctober1968,p.5). IncriticizingthepersistingbackwardnessofSovietsociety,aconditionwhichtheofficiallyidyllicviewhasignored,Sakharovrevealsthe extraordinaryfactthatsome45percentofthepopulation,orapproximately110millionSovietcitizens,liveinunderprivilegedconditions. He comparesthistotheUnitedStateswhere"about25percentofthepopulationisonthevergeofpoverty.Ontheotherhand,the5percent oftheSovietpopulationthatbelongstothemanagerialgroupisasprivilegedasitscounterpartintheUnitedStates,"implyingaconditionof considerablesocialinequalityintheSovietUnion. Sakharov'sobservationisimportantbecausetheattainmentofsocialequalityhaslongbeenamajorSovietclaim.Infact,Sovietstatistics and,morerecently,sociologicalstudiesconfirmthefactthatinhighereducationthechildrenofwhitecollarofficialshaveconsiderably greateropportunitiesthandothoseofworkersorofcollectivefarmers.Forexample,inthelate1950s,75percentofMoscowUniversity studentswerechildrenofofficials20percentand5percentwere,respectively,thechildrenofworkersandofcollectivefarmers.During thisperiodthepopulationdistributionwasapproximately20percent,48percent,and31percent,respectively(seethecollectivevolume KulturnaiaRevoliutsia,Moscow,1967,p.151).Considerabledisproportionalsoexistsinlevelsofremuneration,withtheSovietminimum wagefixedasof1968atapproximately$65permonth.

65

advantageoustotheworkers.Hislongrangevisionfortheemainderofthecenturyinvolvesafourstage development:Inthefirststagethecommunistcountries,and notablytheSovietUnion,willbecomemore democratic,overcomingtheStalinistlegacyofsingleparty dictatorshipthesecondstagewillseethe transformationoftheUnitedStatesandother"capitalist"countriesbyreformers whowilleffectinternalchanges andadoptapolicyofpeacefulcoexistencethethirdstagewillinvolveamassiveSovietAmericanefforttocope withtheproblemsoftheThirdWorldandtopromotedisarmamentthefourthstagewillseetheremaining globalproblemsattackedonthebasisofbroadinternationalcooperation.Sakharov'sviews,evenifsomewhat Utopian,arenoteworthybecausetheyrevealhowtheworldviewofsomeinthenewSovietintellectual scientificelitecontrastswiththeofficialperspective.Theirimportance,however,shouldnotbeexaggerated.His argumentissimplyinaccessiblenotonlytotheoverwhelmingmajorityofliterateSovietpeoplebutalsotothe majorityofSovietintellectuals.Itmaybeassumedthatwherethereare largeconcentrationsofintellectuals (Moscow,Leningrad,Kiev,Akademgorodok,Obninsk),unorthodoxviewpointscirculatesomewhatmore widely,buteventheremuchdependsonthedegreetowhichatanyparticularmomentthegovernmentis preparedtoapply administrativepressureinordertoenforceatleastformalorthodoxy.Giventheparty's monopolyofcommunications,theextensiveeffortstoinculcatetheofficialideology,andthegrowingemphasis onnationalism,thegovernment'sviewoftheworldandofSovietsocietyisstillthebasicsourceofinformation andinterpretationformostSovietcitizens.

AlternativePaths
ItisinthelightoftheforegoingconsiderationsthatpossiblealternativepathsofSovietpolitical developmentshouldbeevaluated.Foranalyticalpurposes,thesehavetobereducedtoamanageablenumber and,accordingly,thediscussionthatfollowswillconcentrateonfiveratherbroadlyconceivedvariants,with attentionfocusedontheroleofideologyandtheparty.Thefivedevelopmentalvariantscanbecapsuledas(1) oligarchicpetrifaction,(2)pluralistevolution, (3) technologicaladaptation,(4)militantfundamentalism, and(5) politicaldisintegration. Oligarchicpetrifactionwouldinvolvethemaintenanceofthedominant roleofthepartyandthe retentionoftheessentiallydogmaticcharacteroftheideology.Ineffect,moreofthesame.Neitherthepartynor theideologywouldbeinaparticularlyrevolutionaryrelationshiptosocietyinstead,themainthrustofthe relationshipwouldbeforthepartytoretainpoliticalcontroloversocietywithoutattemptingtoimposemajor innovations.Strongemphasiswouldbeplacedonideologicalindoctrinationandtheconfinementofideological deviations.Politicalleadershipcouldremaincollective,fortheabsenceofdeliberatelyimposedchangewould notrequiremajorchoices.Thedomesticresultwouldberulebyanossifiedbureaucracythatwouldpursuea conservativepolicymaskedbyrevolutionaryslogans. Pluralistevolutionwouldinvolvethetransformationofthepartyintoalessmonolithicbody,somewhat liketheYugoslavparty,andtheideologicalerosionofthedogmaticLeninistStalinisttradition.Thepartywould becomemorewillingtotoleratewithinitsownranksanopenideologicaldialogue,evenferment,anditwould ceasetoviewitsowndoctrinalpronouncementsasinfallible.Itsrolewouldbemorethatofamoralideological stimulantthanthatofarulerthestateaswellassocietyitselfwouldbecomethemore importantsourceof innovationandchange.Becausesomuchoftheparty'shistoryhasbeencontrarytotheabovepattern,inaddition tosustainedsocialpressurefromkeyeconomicandintellectualgroups,eitherabasicsplitinpartyleadership,or, paradoxically,astrongleader(likeTito)wouldbenecessarytoconditionpartyofficialdomintoacceptanceof suchpoliticalandideologicalpluralism. Technologicaladaptationwouldinvolvethetransformationofthebureaucraticdogmaticpartyintoa partyoftechnocrats.Primaryemphasiswouldbeonscientificexpertise,efficiency,anddiscipline.Ashas alreadyhappenedinUlbricht'sEastGermany,thepartywouldbecomposedofscientificexperts,trainedinthe latesttechniques,capableofrelyingoncyberneticsandcomputersforsocialcontrol,andlookingtoscientific innovationforthepreservationofSovietsecurityandindustrialgrowth.Nationalismwouldreplaceideological dogmasasthebasicintegrativeprinciplelinkingsocietyandthestate.Theyounger,moretechnologically orientedleadersofthemilitaryestablishmentwould,inallprobability,favourthispattern.Politicalleadership,as inthefirstvariant,couldremaincollective,thoughitwouldprobablyinvolveawidercoalitionofpartystate militaryeconomicleaders. Militantfundamentalism wouldinvolvearevivalistefforttorekindleideologicalfavour,whichwould inturnrequireamorerevolutionaryrelationshipbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsociety.Thenotionof progressiontowardcommunismwouldhavetobegivennewprogrammaticcontent,andhencepolitically inducedsocialchangeswouldbenecessary.Inallprobability,thisdevelopmentwouldnecessitatethe applicationofforcetoovercomebothactualresistanceandsheersocialinertia.EvenifitfellshortofStalinist methods,theefforttoshakeuptheSovietsystem'srigidlybureaucratizedstructurewouldrequirehighly centralizedleadership,ideologicalmilitancy,perhapsamorehostileattitudetowardtheoutsideworld,and somethingalongthelinesofMaoTsetung's"CulturalRevolution." Politicaldisintegration wouldinvolveinternalparalysisintherulingelite,therisingselfassertiveness ofvariouskeygroupswithinit,splitsinthearmedforces,restivenessamongtheyoungpeopleandthe intellectuals,andopendisaffectionamongthenonRussiannationalities.Inthewakeoftheintensifying 66

contradictionbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsociety,thecrisisthatcouldarisewouldbemademoreacuteby aninadequateeconomicgrowthincapableofsatisfyingpopulardemands.Thepetrifiedideologynolonger takenseriouslybytheelitewouldbeincapableofprovidingthesystemwithacoherentsetofvaluesfor concertedaction. LookingapproximatelyadecadeaheadandusingasaguidethepresentdistributionofpowerinSoviet society,itwouldappearfromthenatureofthemoreimmediatepoliticaleconomic problemsfacingSoviet leadershipandfromthegeneralpatternofcontemporarySovietsocialdevelopmentthattheSovietleadership willseektostrikeabalancebetweenthefirstandthethirdvariants.Thecombinationcomesclosesttosatisfying eliteinterests,theimperativesofsocialorthodoxy,andtheneedsoftheSovietUnionasaglobalrivalofthe UnitedStates. Intheshortrun,developmenttowardapluralist,ideologicallymoretolerantsystemdoesnotseem likely.Theyears19641969haveevenseenmovementintheoppositedirection.Thepoliticalsystemisnotin thenearfuturelikelytoelevatetoleadershipamanwiththewillandthepowertodemocratizeSovietsociety, andthatsocietylacksthecohesionandthegrouppressuresnecessarytoeffectdemocratizationfrombelow.As theexperienceofCzechoslovakiahasshown,democratizationfrombelowmustbeanorganicprocessthatlinks theintellectuals,theworkers,andthestudentswithsomesegmentsoftheleadershipinadeliberateeffortto reformthepoliticalstructureaswellastheeconomicstructure.Moreover,suchaprocessmusteitherdrawona democratictradition(aswasthecaseinCzechoslovakia)orcreateonebyacceptingthepriorityoflegalnorms * overpoliticalexpediency.ForSovietcommunismthiswouldbetantamount toanewconceptofpolitics. Furthermore,theSovietproblemwithnonRussiannationalitiesinhibitsdemocratization:theGreatRussian majoritywouldinevitablyfearthatdemocratizationmightstimulatethedesireofthenonRussianpeoplesfirst formoreautonomyandthenforindependence.GiventhethrustofSovietsocialdevelopmentandtheinterestsof thepresentrulingelite,itisunlikelythataneffectivedemocratizingcoalitioncouldemergeduringthe1970s. Militantfundamentalismunderaonemandictatorship,thoughperhapssomewhatmoreprobableintheshortrun thanapluralistevolution,alsowouldhavetoovercomeenormousinertiaandthecollectivestakeoftheparty oligarchsinpreventingthereappearanceofonemanrule.Pressurestowardsucharulecoulddevelopintheface ofdomesticupheavaloramajorforeignthreat,butatalentedandeffectivepoliticalleaderwouldhavetobe available.ThepresentSovietbureaucracyisconstitutedinsuchawayastoweedoutandsnuffoutindividual talentitisnolongera revolutionarypartyinwhichindividualcourageandresourcefulnessmakefor advancement. Nonetheless,thefundamentalistalternativeshouldnotbedismissedoutofhand,especiallyifit becomestheonlyalternativetopoliticaldisintegrationresulting fromthepetrifactionofthesystemasawhole. Protractedinternaldecayasaresultoftheleadership'sinabilitytocometogripswithcurrentproblems, continuedfailuretocatchupwiththeUnitedStatesinthescientificcompetition,andinternalthreatstonational unitycouldinacontextofincreasingideologicalindifferencecombinewithaninternationalsecuritythreatto sparkafundamentalistspasmfromasectionoftheelite.Suchspasmsarecharacteristicofpoliticalfaithsintheir decline. ThealternativesoffundamentalismorofdisintegrationcouldbeprecipitatedbyaSinoSovietwar. SuchawarwouldinevitablyimposemajorstrainsontheSovietsystem.EvenifwonrapidlybytheSovietside, itwouldentailmajoreconomiccostsandcouldeveninvolvelengthypostwarcounterguerrillaactivities.Apro tractedwarwouldconstituteitselfadirectdefeatfortheSovietregime,anditisalmostcertainthattheregime wouldbetoppledfrompowerbydissatisfiedelementsintherulingcircles.Whateveritsoutcome,awarofthis magnitudewouldbecertaintotriggerhighlymilitantandvolatilefeelingswithintheSovietUnion,creating pressuresonbehalfofonemanruleorsimplypullingtheregimeapart. Giventheconditionsprevailing intheearly1970s,oligarchic petrifactionwouldbetheprobable consequenceofcontinuedrulebythepresentmajorityoftheagingupperpartybureaucracy(theaverageageof CentralCommitteememberswasoversixtyin1969,makingthemprobablytheoldestpoliticalleadersinthe world,exceptforthoseoftheVaticanandMaoandhisassociates),oftheoldtimearmymarshals(someof whomhavemorepartysenioritythanthetoppoliticalrulers),andofthepartyideologuesThiscoalition representsnotonlythepoliticalbutalsothetopsocialeliteoftheSovietUnion,inthesensethatitspowergives itprerogativesequivalenttothoseassociatedundercapitalismwithwealth:luxury,convenience,andprestige. Likeanyrulingclass,ittendstobecomeconservativeandresistanttochangesthatthreatenitsposition. MoreoverandthisisaveryimportantconsiderationtheSovietmiddleclassishighlybureaucratizedand consistsalmostentirelyofstateofficialswhoareratherconservativeintheirpoliticalandsocialmoresandare onlyonegenerationremovedfromtheirproletarianorpeasantorigins.Thisclassdoesnotwantmajorpolitical change,thoughitdoesdesiremorematerialgoods.Itprovidestheunderpinningfortheconservatismofthe leadership. TheupperstratumoftheSovietprofessionalandscientificelitehas,however,becometoobroad,too
*

AsoneCzechscholarobservedincommenting ontheCzechexperiencewithStalinism,"Oneofthepossiblemethodsofpreventingthe recurrenceofpoliticaltrialsinanyformisachangeintheconceptofpolitics,withwhichisconnectedthebirthofanewpoliticalsystem.I haveinmindsuchaconceptofpoliticsaswouldnotcontaintheelementsof,oranassuredbasisfor,displaysofillegalityofthekindthat happenedmostfrequentlyintheperiodofthepoliticaltrials"(K.Kaplan,"ThoughtsaboutthePoliticalTrials,"NovaMysl, No.8,1968).

67

welleducated,andtoonationalisticallyambitioustobesatisfiedwithapatternthatmerelypreservesthe status quo. Thoughconcernedwithpoliticalstability,itisalsoawareofthedomesticandinternationalimperativesfor socialandscientificinnovation.Inrecentyearsthisstratumhasgainedincreasingaccesstothedecisionmakers andthusparticipatesinformallyinaprocessofgroupbargaining,especiallyinpolicyareasrequiringexpertise. TheorganoftheSovietAcademyofScienceshasnotedthat"inrecenttimes,thenumberofscientistscalledon toparticipateintheworkofthegovernmentalapparatus,evenatthehighestlevels,hasincreased.Theyshould becalledonmoreoftentoorganizeproductionandtodirectplanningintheeconomicsphere."33 Their innovativeinfluence,addedtotheincreasinglywidespreadpoliticalappreciationoftheimportanceof scientificinnovation,tonationalfeelingsofrivalrywiththeUnitedStates,andtothenationalistandsecurity aspirationsoftheyounger,morescientificallyorientedmilitaryleaders,isalreadystimulatingpressuresforafu sionofthefirst(oligarchic petrifaction)andthird(technologicaladaptation)variants,inanattempttoconstructa * novelkindof"technetroniccommunism." TheexampleofUlbricht'sEastGermanymaybecomeparticularlyrelevant.ThoughinRumania explorationsofthescientificrevolution'ssignificancehaveledsomecommuniststosuggestthatthisrevolution 34 requiresanewtheoreticalframeworkbasedontheprincipleofuniversality, Ulbrichthasattemptedtocombine scientificinnovationwithstrictadherencetotheLeninistStalinistideologicaltradition.Politicalleadershiphas remainedhighlycentralized,andideologicaldissenthasbeenfirmlysuppressed.Atthesametime,Ulbricht, perhapsmorethananyothercommunistleader,hasemphasizedthat"thedevelopmentofthe socialistsystem, abovealltheimplementationoftheeconomicsystemasawhole,istoagrowingextentamatterofscientific leadership....Weorientourselvesontheconsciousscientificcontrolofcomplexprocessesandsystemsbythe peopleandforthepeople.Wemakeuseofcyberneticsinthissense."35 Duringthesecondhalfofthe1960s,EastGermanleadershipmadeanintenseefforttorationalize economicmanagementinordertocombinelowerlevelinitiativewithaneffectivesystemofcontrolsand coordination.TheSeventhPartyCongress(April 1967)setitselfthetaskofdevelopingageneralconceptionof therelationsbetweenthevariouspartsystemswiththeeconomicsystemasawholemorethananyother communistcountry,EastGermanyutilizedcybernetics,operationalresearch,andelectronicdataprocessing. Twoyearslater,attheApril1969CentralCommitteePlenum,PolitburomemberKurtHagerproudlyreported andherepeatedlyusedthisformulathatEastGermanywasnotonlyideologicallysoundbut"correctlypro grammed." Inlinewiththis"correctprogramming,"thepartyhasemphasizedtheimportanceofexpertiseamongits 36 members, andtheeducationalsystemhasbeenreformedinordertolinkscienceclosely withindustry. Bythe late1960s,EastGermanyhadtransformeditselffromoneofthemostwarravagedsocietiesintothemost economicallyandideologicallyadvancedscienceorientedcommuniststate.Afterafiftyyearlapse,the combinationofPrussiandiscipline,Germanscientificefficiency,andLeninistStalinistideologyhasthusagain madeGermancommunismamodelforitseasternneighbors. IntheSovietUnion,however,otherconsiderationswillinalllikelihoodimpedethepaceofasimilar "technologization"oftheSovietpoliticalsystem.Foronething,theSovietUnionisamuchbiggercountry,is moredifficulttointegrate,andhasmanymoreareasofsocioeconomicbackwardnesstoovercome.Inaddition, overthelastfiftyyearstherulingpartyhasdevelopeditsowntraditionsandideologicalstyle,andthoughit favorstheacquisitionoftechnicalskillsbyitsofficials,itislikelytocontinuetoresistthedevelopmentofan essentiallytechnicalorientationamongitsmembers,sincethatwoulddilutetheimportanceattachedto 37 ideology. Moreover,perhapsintensifiedintheyearstocomebytheSinoSovietdispute,theroleofthesecurity factorinpolicymakingandofthemilitaryinthepoliticalprocessmighttendtoincrease.Indeed,ifthesecurity problembecomesmoreurgentandSovietleadershipremainscollective,itwillbecomeincreasinglydifficultto denythemilitarydirectparticipationinthepoliticaldecisionmakingprocess.Inthatcase,thefusionofthefirst andthethirdvariants(strivingtocombineideologicalrigiditywithtechnologicalexpertise)wouldalsoinvolve thetransformationduringthe1970softhepresentcommunistpartydictatorshipintoa communistpraetorian
*

Thisprocesswouldprovidethepoliticalexpressionfortheimpressivegrowthinboththeoverallnumberofspecialistsengagedin scientificactivityandservices(includingthosewithspecializedsecondaryeducation)andinthenumberofthosemembersofthepolitical elitewhohavehadextensivebackgroundsintechnicalandscientificfields.Betweentheyears1950and1966theformergrewfrom714,000 to2,741,000 (SciencePolicyintheUSSR,p.679)GeorgeFischerhasgatheredevidenceshowing thatthelatterarebecomingthe predominantgroupamongtheyoungermembersoftheCentralCommitteeoftheCPSU(TheSovietSystemandModernSociety, NewYork, 1968,especiallypp.12534)TechnicalcompetenceisaswidespreadintheSovietpoliticaleliteaslegalbackgroundisinitsAmerican counterpart. Underthesereformsuniversitiesandpolytechnicalschoolshavebeentransformedintonew"sciencecombines"directlylinkedwith industrialenterprises.Forexample,theTechnicalUniversityofDresdenworksjointlywiththenearbyRadeb'ergcomputerfactory,andother institutionsoflearninghavebeensimilarlylinkedwiththebasicindustrialeffortsoftheircitiesorregions.Inthisreformamajoreffortwas madetoobtainstudentparticipation,andstudentsaresaidtohavemadeanumberofconstructiveproposalsalongtheabovelines. Atthesametime,MarxistLeninistindoctrinationhascontinuedtobeassignedhighpriorityintheeducationalprocess,butstresshasbeen placedonthenecessitytocombineitwithscientificsocialforecasting:"Itisnecessarytoimparttotheleadershippersonnelofthesocialist stateacomplexknowledgewhichenablesthemtocarryoutthepartyresolutionswithahighdegreeofqualitythismustbedoneonthebasis ofthesociallongrangeforecast,inteamworkwiththeSocialistEconomicManagementInstitute,theSocialSciencesInstitute,the'Karl Marx'PartyCollege,andotherinstitutions"(aspeechbyErichHonecker,memberofthePolitburoandSecretaryoftheCentralCommittee oftheGermanSocialistUnityParty,April29,1969).Honecker'sspeechwasremarkableforitsemphasisonthetechnetronicfeaturesofa modernsocietyandforitsrelativeneglectoftheideologicalquestion.

68

* oligarchy.

TheProblemofVitality
Thequestionthenis:Will suchapoliticaldevelopmentfacilitatetheresolutionoftheeconomicand politicaldilemmasconfrontingtheSovietUnion?Theanswertothisquestionisboundtobeevenmore speculativethantheprognosisitself.Onthewhole,itwouldappeardoubtfulwhetheranattempttocombine ideologicalorthodoxywithtechnologicalinnovation,perhapsbuttressedbyincreasingrelianceonnationalism andthemilitary,willcreateasettingpropitioustointellectualandscientificcreativity.Suchanattemptis more likelytoproduceinternalcontradictions,withtheideologuesandthetechnocratsoftenpullinginopposite directions.Thiswillbeespeciallytrueasconcernsthecomplexissueofeconomicdecentralization,increasingly recognizedasnecessaryforeconomicreasons,butneverthelessfearedforpoliticalreasons.Theresultwillbe eithertemporarycompromises(suchashavebeencharacteristicofBrezhnev)ordrasticpolicyshiftsfromone emphasistotheother.Theconsequenttensionwillwidenthegapbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsocietythe politicalsystemwillappearunresponsivetointernaldilemmas,andincreasingsocialpressurewillbegenerated foramorefundamentalreassessmentofthecontemporaryrelevanceoftheideologicaland institutionalcharacter oftheSovietstate. Accordingly,itmaybeexpectedthatthe1970swillwitnessthespreadtotheSovietUnionof convulsionssimilartothosethatSpain,Yugoslavia,Mexico,andPolandbegantoundergointhelate1960s.The Sovietstudentpopulationwillhavedoubledduringthe1960s(itincreasedbyseventysevenpercentbetween 1958and1965),anditisunlikelythattheSovietUnionwillaltogetheravoidstudentunrest.Thelate1970swill probablyseethesexualrevolutionspreadtothemoreurbanSovietcenters,andthepartyideologueswillnotfind iteasytoaccommodatewithintheprevailingofficialmores.Thesefactorscouldcreateabroadersocialbasisfor thecurrentlyisolatedideologicaldissentersand,togetherwiththelikelygrowthintheselfassertivenessofthe nonRussianintelligentsia,makeformorevisiblesocialandpoliticaltensions.GiventheauthoritarianSovietset ting,aredflagspontaneouslyflownbyMoscowstudentsovertheiruniversitywill havemuchgraverpolitical symbolismthanthesameflagflutteringoverColumbiaortheSorbonne. Butitwillnotbeuntiltheearly1980sthatthefirstfullypostStalinpoliticalleadershipwillenterthe politicalarena.Anaspiringfortyfiveyearold leaderin1980willhavebeenonlyeighteenatthetimeofStalin's deathandtwentyonewhendeStalinizationactuallybeganintheSovietUnion.Thoughhisgenerationwill probablyfinditsaccesstopowerblockedbypoliticalleaderstenoreventwenty yearsolder(thePolyanskis, Shelepins,Semichastnys,Tolstikovsoftoday),itwillpressforinfluencefromtheechelonsimmediatelybelow thatoftheCentralCommittee.Giventhemorevolatiledomesticandglobalsettinginwhichitwillhave matured, givenitshighereducation,giventheprobablymoreflexiblecharacteroftheadjoiningEastern Europeanstates,itisquitepossiblethattheemergingpoliticalelitewillbelesscommittedtothenotionthat socialdevelopmentrequiresintenseconcentrationofpoliticalpower. Nevertheless,eventhenevolutionintoapluralistsystemislikelytoberesistedbytheentrenched politicaloligarchy.Theintroductionofpoliticalpluralismwillatsomepointrequireadeliberatedecisiontoopen theSovietUniontocompetitiveideas,toleteachSovietcitizenreadwhathewants,toreducethelevelofthe party'sideologicalcontrol,todecentralizedecisionmakingandthustosharepowerwithsociety:ineffect,a majortransformationofthesystemasawhole.Unintendedconsequencesofeconomictechnological adjustmentswillnotsufficetobringaboutsignificantpoliticalchange.AsinYugoslaviaorpre1968 Czechoslovakia,atsomepointthepoliticalelitemustdecidetoembarkondeliberatepoliticalreforms. Thus,barringanupheavalresultingfrominternalparalysisanddramaticallybringingabouteither socialdemocracyor,morelikely,arevivalistdictatorcapableofcontrollinginternaldissentthemoreprobable patternforthe1980sisamarginal shifttowardthecombinationofthesecond(pluralistevolution)andthird (technologicaladaptation)variants:limitedeconomicpoliticalpluralismandintenseemphasisontechnological competence,withinthecontextofastillauthoritariangovernment representingacoalitionoftheupperechelons oftheprincipalinterestgroups.Thiscouldbethebeginningofthereturntothe WesternMarxisttradition,butonlyaslow andcautiousbeginningatbest. Itwouldthereforeberashto expectinthenearfutureafundamentalrevisionoftheSovietattitudetowardtheworld.Therewillbechange,
*

ThisviewisheldalsobysomeYugoslavobservers.Thus,V.Stanovcic,writingintheYugoslavCentralCommitteeweekly Komunist (September26,1968),hasarguedthatthepresentSovietsystemhasprovenitselfunabletoliberalizegraduallyandthatasaconsequenceit willverylikely"logicallydevelopintoaBonapartistformofrule,withmanagerialmilitaristgroupsassumingtheroleof'lineprescribers' and'organizers'ofsociety." ItmightberelevantatthisjuncturetoputtorestthepopularanalogyfrequentlymadebetweentheevolutionoftheFrenchRevolutioninto abourgeoisdemocracyandtheallegedlysimilarpoliticalconsequencesofthe embourgeoisement ofSovietsociety.Theanalogyoverlooks severalsalientdifferencesbetweentheserevolutions.TheFrenchRevolutiontookplaceinasettingshapedbyarationalist,idealistic intellectualtraditionandineffectiveabsolutism.TheRussianRevolutionwasprecededbyincreasingintellectualfanaticismandutopianism, reactingtotheabsolutistandautocraticpoliticalsetting.TheFrenchRevolutionwaseffectedbyanidealisticandhighlydisorganized professionalmiddleclasstheBolshevikRevolutionbyahighlyprofessional,ideological,anddisciplinedparty.TheFrenchrevolutionaries didnothavethetimeduringtheirrelativelyshortstayinpowertoreorganizeFrenchsocietyfundamentallytheBolsheviks,particularly underStalin,rippedapartandrewovetheentiresocialfabric,whileeffectingafarreachingindustrialandurbanrevolution.TheFrench middleclasswasaninnovativeandintellectuallyrestlessclassthenewSovietmiddleclassisVictorian,conservative,andorthodox.Last butnotleast,thelegateeoftheFrenchRevolution,Napoleon,wasdefeatedStalinwasvictorious.

69

butitwillbeslow.Moreover,theelementofrivalrywiththeUnitedStates,reflectingthevestigiallegacyof ideologyandreinforcedbymiddleclassurbannationalism,islikelytocontinuetobedominant,evenif temperedbygrowingSovietrecognitionthatincreasedUnitedStatesSovietcollaborationisdictatedbythebasic imperativesofhumansurvival.TheSinoSovietconflictmayalsohaveadoubleandcontradictoryeffect:while intensifyingtheSovietdesireforasecureandpeacefulwesternflank,itislikelytoheightenSovietsecurity concerns,andthusstrengthenthedomesticpositionofthemoreconservativeandnationalistelements. ThiscombinationoferodingideologyandintensifyingnationalismmakesitunlikelythattheSoviet Unionwillsoonbecomeinvolvedeitherinmilitantlyadvancingthecauseofworldrevolutionorinactively promotingapolicyofglobalcooperation.Amorelikelyresultisanambiguouspatterndeterminedbyshort rangeexpediencyratherthanbyabroad,longrangeperspective.Inthatcontext,preciselybecausetheSoviet Uniondoesnotappearlikelytoexperienceinthenearfutureadomesticphaseofopenintellectualcreativityand experimentation,itsattractivenessasthesocioeconomicmodelforcontemporarycommunism,onecapableof intellectuallyandmorallycaptivatingtheimaginationofmankind,willprobablycontinuetodecline.

4.SectarianCommunism
Inourageauniversalideologicalmovementcanonlybeapluralistone.Andifitistobepluralistthat is,responsivetorapidlychanging,differentiatedglobalconditionsandtheresultingvolatileintellectualmood itsideologicalcontentmustbehighlygeneralized,moreethicalthanpractical,andmorehumanisticthan nationalistic.Ineffect,anecumenicalcommunismwouldhavetobeadeliberatelypluralistcommunism.An internationalpluralistcommunismwouldinturninevitablygeneratepressuresforinternallypluralistcommunist parties. Pluralistcommunismdoesnotexistandisunlikelytoappear.Communistuniversalismhasfallen victimtocommunistdogmatism.Thatdogmatismwascompatiblewithuniversalismonlyaslongascommunism wasanabstractattempttodefineglobalconditionsintheearlystagesofindustrializationandfounditspolitical expressionindisparategroupsofintellectualsseekingpower.Oncetheseintellectualshadseizedpowerin differentstates,dogmatismbegantomergewiththenaturalpropensityofthenewrulerstoseetheworldthrough the prismoftheirownnationalpowerinterests.Dogmatism,nolongeroperatingonthelevelofuniversal abstractionbutonthatofnationalpractice,facilitatedthetransformationofcommunismintosectarianismwith eachsectinsistingthatitsperspectivewasthetrulyuniversaloneandestablishing internal partydisciplineon thatbasis. TheSovietUnionledintransforminguniversalcommunismintosectariancommunism,butthe process developednaturallyamongallcommunistpartiesinpowerandevenamongthemoreestablishedcommunist partiesoutofpower.Asaresultofconflictingclaims,mutualexcommunications,occasionalpatchedup compromises,andactiveandlatentconflicts,contemporarycommunismformsamosaicalmostasvariedasthe 38 nationsofmankind. Farfromhelpingtoendtheintellectualfragmentationoftheglobe,sectariancommunism intensifiesit.

Phases
Fourbroadphasescanbediscernedintheevolutionofcommunismasaninternationalmovementsincethe creationofthefirstcommuniststateintheSovietUnion.Thefirstphase,correspondingroughlytothe1920sand the1930sbutparticularlytothe1930s,whichwitnessedtheideologicalrestructuringofSovietsocietycanbe calledthatof transplantation.AnessentiallyWesterndoctrine,respondingtothespecificconditionsofWestern capitalistindustrialization,wastransplantedtotheRussiansettingandredefinedtomeetthepoliticalneedsof thatsetting.Thisinvolveddomesticatinganddogmatizingtheimportedandreadaptedideology. DomesticationmeantthatformulationsderivedfromspecificRussianconditions,asdefinedfirstby LeninandevenmoresobyStalin,increasinglypermeatedthe doctrineasaresult,purelyparochial considerationsweredogmaticallyuniversalized.Dogmatizationwaslargelytheconsequenceoftheprimitive, 39 autocraticsettingintowhichMarxismwastransplanted, ofthearbitrarypersonaltraitsofthetopideologues, andofthepowerneedsofthenewcommunistelitethatfounditselfwithoutwhatMarxsawasthefoundationfor socialistrulethesolidproletarianbasethatcapitalistdevelopmenthadcreatedintheWest. Thesecondphase,theactive universalization oftheSovietspecific,correspondedapproximatelytothe 1930sandparticularlythe1940s.ItsawtheStalinizationofforeigncommunistparties,theforcibleexportofthe SovietversionofcommunismtoEasternEurope,andthespontaneousexpansionofthemoreorientalLeninist adaptationofMarxismtoChina,Korea,andVietnam.CentralizedbyMoscow,internationalcommunism imitatedtheSovietexperiencewithouttakingintoconsiderationconditionsprevailingwithinthedifferent nations.Indeed,Sovietinsistenceonacommonmoldbecamemoreintensepreciselybecauseamajorgap existedbetweenideologyandlocalconditions. Thisstateofaffairscouldnotlongendure,andnationalcommunistleadershipgroupscameunder growingdomesticpressuresforadjustmentsintimethenationalleadersthemselvesbegantoseeadivergence betweentheirownneedsandinterestsandSovietprescriptionsanddemands.Theresultwasthethirdphase,the particularizationofinternationalcommunismduringthe1950s.Itsaw,firstofall,thecompleteselfassertionof theYugoslavleadership(inlargemeasurebecauseithadcometopowerthroughitsownefforts),thepartialself 70

assertionofthePolishleadership,thebeginningsofsuchselfassertionbytheRumanians,and,mostimportant ofall,theincreasinginclinationoftheChineseleadershipbothtopracticeitsownversionofcommunismandto generalizethesignificanceandrelevanceofitsexperienceforotherrevolutionarycommunistparties. The1960saccordinglywitnessedanewstageinthehistoryofinternationalcommunism.Itwas dominatedbyopentensionbetweentheprocessbywhichdoctrinewasrelativizedandtheprocessbywhich specificpointsofviewweremadeabsolute.Forthesakeofunity,Sovietleadershipseemedatfirstwillingto tolerateincreasingdiversityintheearly1960sitformallyabandonedbothitsclaimtoleadershipandits 40 insistenceontheneedforacommongeneralline. Ashiftintheoppositedirection,however,tookplaceinthe secondhalfofthedecadeitwasperhapsgeneratedbythefearthatrelativizationwasthefirststageinthe erosionoftheideology,andthattheresultingecumenicalunitywouldbedevoidofanypoliticalsubstance. Czechoslovakpoliticaldevelopmentsin1968andthepersistentChinesechallengewereinallprobabilitythe catalyststhatprecipitatedtheSovietleaders'turntowardsectarianism:thereassertionoftheabsoluteuniversality ofcertaincommonlaws,largelyasdefinedbytheSovietleadersthemselves.Theinescapablepricethathadto bepaidwasthatthosecommunistpartiesthatcouldasserttheirowndivergentpositionwoulddosoandwould havetodosointhecontextofmutualideologicaldenunciations.Particularism,insteadofbeingastagetoward ecumenism,wasthustranslatedduringthe1960sintothefourthandcurrentphase, sectarianism. * Communistunityasoftheearly1970sisthusdevoidofanysubstantivemeaning. Westerncommunist partiesfortifytheirappealsforpopularsupportbyincreasinglydenyingthattheSovietUnionoffersarelevant model.Indeed,theItalianandFrenchcommunistleadershavecometorealizethattheirpartieswillsucceedonly to thedegreethattheysuccessfullyconvincethevotersthataFrenchoranItaliancommunistgovernmentwould bedifferentfromtheSovietmodel.DespitepersistingSovietpressures,therulingEasternEuropeancommunist partiescontinuetomakequietadjustmentstodomesticnecessities,andinsodoingtheyincreasinglydiverge fromtheSovietmodel.TheChineseCommunistPartynotonlypracticesitsownbrandof communismbut explicitlydeniesthattheSovietpartyisacommunistpartyindeed,itchargesthattheSovietUnionisinthe processofrestoringcapitalism. TheSovietdecisionin1968tosnuffoutCzechoslovakdemocratizationwasparticularlyfatefulfor internationalcommunismHadtheSovietleaderspermittedtheliberalizationoftheessentiallyStalinistmodelof theCzechoslovakcommuniststate, amajorandvitallyimportantstepinthedemocratizationofEuropean communismwouldhavebeentaken.ThedemocratizationofCzechoslovakiawouldhavesignificantlyaffected theothercommuniststates,includingtheSovietUnion,eventuallygeneratingsimilartendencieswithinthem. ThiswastheprimaryreasonfortheSovietdecisiontointerveneinCzechoslovakia.RogerGaraudy,amember ofthePolitburooftheFrenchCommunistPartyatthetime,wascorrectinstatingthattheSovietleaders instinctivelyfearedthedemocratizationofCzechoslovakiapreciselybecausetheyhavebeensocommittedtothe Stalinistmodelofsocialismthatanyattempttoadjustsocialismtotheconditionsofmoreadvancedsocietieshas cometobeviewedasamenacetosocialismitself.Democratizationwentagainstthegrainoftheirentiretraining andoutlooktheoccupationofCzechoslovakiawasthereforenotanerrorbutalogicalconsequenceofthe 41 Stalinistsystem. ThespectacleofademocraticCzechoslovakia,ruled byacommunistpartytolerantofindividual freedom(freetravel,speech,press),wouldhavehadanenormousimpactonWesterncommunistparties.It wouldhaveencouragedthesepartiestoeffecttheirowninternaldemocratizationmorerapidly,anditwouldhave madethemmoreappealingtotheirnationalelectorates.Thiswouldhavemeantamajorturningpointinthe historyofcommunismitself.ItwouldhavecreatedinthemoreadvancedWestademocratizingcommunism preoccupiedwithhumanisticallyharnessingthetechnetronicchallengeitwouldhaveledtoamilitant,more revolutionarycommunism,violentlyreactingagainstthebackwardnessandsocialinadequacyoftheconditions prevailingintheThirdWorld.UnwillingnesstotolerateCzechoslovakiahasthusmeantnotonlythattheSoviet Unionwillforsometimepersistinacongealed,highlybureaucratizedmold,butthattherewillbemany sectariancommunisms,eachclaimingthatitexpressesauniversallyvalidmessage.

AssimilatedCommunisms
The 1970sandthe1980sarehencelikelytoseeincreasinglydiversifiedcommunismsmergingwith
*

FailuretoperceivethisrealitystillpromptssomeWesternconservativescholarstospeakof"theforeignpolicyofcommunism,"andtobe criticaloftheviewthatcommunistideologyisnolongercapableofmobilizingunifiedglobalsupport.See HansMorgenthau,ANew ForeignPolicyfortheUnitedStates, NewYork,1969,p.32.Presumablyforthesamereason,ProfessorMorgenthauarguedin1965thatthe VietnamwarwouldbringtheSovietsandtheChinesetogether. SovietspokesmenhaveoccasionallyarguedthatademocraticCzechoslovakiawouldhaveceasedtobeacommunistCzechoslovakia,that thecommunistpartywouldhavebeenputoutofpower.Thisisdoubtful,thoughitcannotbeeitherprovenordisproven.Nonetheless,itis unlikelythatotherpoliticalpartiescouldhaveactuallyappearedinCzechoslovakia,forneitherthesocialbasisnorthepersonnelforthem appearstohaveexisted.Indeed,asof1968thepredominantattitudeamongtheCzechsandSlovakswasinfavorofworkingwithinand throughamoredemocratic,pluralistcommunistpartythatwouldhavebeencommunistwithoutbeingLeninistStalinist. TheSovietargument,however,isdeservingofnotebecauseitrevealssomethingelse.Thechargeistantamounttoanadmissionthat democracyandtheSovietversionofcommunismarestillincompatible.Itthusreflectsnotonlyadeeplyingrainedbureaucraticsuspicionof thepopularwillbutthepersistentincapacityofSovietcommunistofficialstorelatemeaningfullytothecontemporarypreoccupationwith politicalandsocialequality,tothecontemporarysearchforanewhumanismrelevanttothe"scientifictechnologicalrevolution,"which communiststhemselvesadmitthattheyhavetendedtoneglect(seep.152, supra).

71

specificlocalconditionswhilefadingaspartofaninternationalmovementandauniversalideology.InEastern Europethismightmeantheappearanceofsomeregimesthatwouldmoreappropriatelyqualifyforthelabel "socialfascist"thancommunistthatis,rulingpartiesthatreinforcetheirowndogmatismbyforcingfromtheir ranksthosewhoinanywaytendtodeviatefromthenorm.Intenselynationalistic,themiddleandupperechelons oftheirelitewouldbecomposedofsociallyandpoliticallyconservativefirstgenerationmiddleclassofficials whohavevaguelyinternalizedtheofficialideologyespeciallythebeliefintheparamountcyofthestate ruling inanalliancewithanideologicallyneutral,technologicallyexpertclassdisdainfulofthemore"old fashioned"intellectualhumanists,andsupportedbythemilitary.InadditiontotheSovietUnion,EastGermany * andperhapsPolandandBulgariaarelikelytoapproximatetheabove"socialfascist"category. Theseregimes,however,arenotlikelytobestable.Therulingelitessufferfromincreasingcynicism andtendtobemoreandmorefragmentedcliques,intrigues,andpersonalfeudsdominatetheinternalpolitical processes,whichstilllackdefinedconstitutionalprocedures.Societiesarebecomingmorerestlessunderexisting politicalrestraintsandarefearfullesttheirsystemsproveinsufficientlyinnovativeintechnologicalareas. Moreover,a newandeverlargergenerationofstudentsisbeginningtoleavetheuniversitiesandtolayclaimto power.Theoutburstsof1968arelikelytoberepeatedinthe1970s.Shouldtheyoccurinasettinginwhich WesternEuropeexertsasocialattractionforfrustratedEasternEuropeans,andinwhichthereispolitical weaknessanddivisioninMoscow,thenextwaveofEasternEuropeanunrestcouldbeexplosiveonaregional, andnotjustnational,scale. InYugoslaviathemainsourceofuncertaintyforthefutureisthepossibilityofdissensionamongthe variousnationalities,especiallyafterTito'sdeath.Thatdissensioncouldleadtoamilitarycoupdesignedto preservethestate,andSovietleadershipwouldthenbelikelytomakeamajorefforttoimproverelationswith suchapraetorianYugoslavregime.Ifthatdangerwhichisquitereal issurmountedbyacombinationof politicalskillandcontinuedeconomicgrowth,Yugoslaviawillcontinuetoevolvetowardamorepluralist patternandtocultivateclosercontactswiththeWestnodoubtincludingsomethinglikeassociatestatusinthe EuropeanCommonMarket.Itmayevenbegintoexperimentwithmultipartyelections,anditislikelytobeless andlessdoctrinaireabouttheclassicalissueof stateversusprivateownership. Yugoslavtheoreticianshave alreadyarguedpubliclythatamultipartysystemisanecessarymechanismforavoidingthepolitical degenerationinherentinthecommunistpartypowermonopoly.Theyhavewarnedthat"nothingissoirrational asaclosedrationalsystemwhichdoesnotallowotherideasandcontraryviewstolive,whichdoesnotpermit anyintellectualunrest."42 TheexampleprovidedbysuchaYugoslaviawouldbeattractivetothemoredevelopedEastern Europeanstates, suchasCzechoslovakiaandHungary,andeventuallytothecurrentlymostindependentminded memberoftheEasternbloc,Rumania.Theformerarelikelytocontinuequietlypursuingtheroadofdemoc ratizationfromwithin,eventuallyheadingtowardindependenceRumaniaislikelytoconsolidateits independencebyincreasingthescopeofpopularparticipationinthecountry'ssocialandpoliticallife.Allthree countriesincreasinglyappreciatethedesirabilityofsubstitutingamixedeconomyforthehighlycentralized Sovietmodel.Moreover,Czechoslovaksociologistshaverecentlybeendrawingattentiontothetransformation oftheirownsocietyintooneinwhichtheintelligentsia,"thefastestgrowinggroupinsociety,"isplayingthe decisiverole.Intheirview,thisnecessarilycompelsaredefinitionoftheconceptof"thedictatorshipofthe 43 proletariat." Hungariansociologists,discussingtheimplicationsoftheincreasinglydecentralizedHungarian economicmodelandofasimilarincreaseintheHungarianintelligentsia,havealsocalledforaredefinitionof socialisminthedirectionof"comprehensivesocialreforms,includingbroadsectionsofsociallife(politicaland 44 culturalaswell)." Moreover,theEasternEuropeanstatesfearthatscientificobsolescencemaybethepricethattheywill havetopayforremainingtoocloselyassociatedwithanEasternblocandforbeingcutofffromextensive contactswiththeWest.(Thesefearsarenotgroundless.SeeTable10.)ThisfearissharedevenbyEastGer many,whosetechnologicaldevelopmentisincreasinglyturningittowardWesternmarkets,withtheresultthat theregime'stechnologicalsuccessisintensionwithitspoliticalorientation. IntheWestthebureaucratizedandideologicallysterilecommunismoftheStalinistvarietyislikelyto continuetofadein
TABLE10. INVENTIONSREGISTEREDPER100,000 INHABITANTS(1964) Country No.ofInventions Belgium 164 Austria 147 Denmark 131 Norway 121
*

ItisinterestingandrelevanttonoteherethatCentralEuropeanfascismwasprimarilyanurbandevelopment.Forexample,in1937,50per centofthemembersoftheHungarianArrowCrosspartywereindustrialworkers,12percentwereprofessionalandselfemployedpeople, andonly8percentwerepeasants.Atthesametimeslightlyoverhalfthepopulationwaspeasant(IstvanDeak,"Hungary,"in TheEuropean Right, EugeneWeberandHansRogger,eds.,Berkeley,1965,pp.39697) InthemoredevelopedpartsofYugoslaviathereisalreadystrongsentimentonbehalfofwideningtheprivatesectorintheeconomy.The groupwiththestrongestantiprivatepropertyfeelingsisthatofthewhitecollarworkerswiththeleasteducation(seethepublicopinionpoll publishedintheZagreb Vjesnik,December24,1968).

72

Czechoslovakia 52 Hungary 20 Poland 10 Rumania 7 Source:Burks,TechnologicalInnovationandPoliticalChangeinCommunistEasternEurope, p.12.

sociopoliticalrelevance.Therevolutionarystandardhasalreadypassedintothehandsofmoreideologically volatileandactivistgroupsasaresult,theestablishedcommunistpartiesarelikelytoseekpoliticalrelevanceby * minimizingtheirorthodoxyandemphasizingtheiracceptanceofconstitutionalprocedures. Theirfundamental problemislikelytocontinue tobethattheyhavenoattractivemodelofamodernhighlysophisticatedand pluralistcommunistpowertoofferasanexampletotheirelectoratesinaddition,thesignificanceoftheir programmaticmessageisfurtherreducedbythefactthattheWesthasprecededthecommuniststatesin experiencingthesocialandtechnologicalrevolution. Thus,bothinordertoexploitthetensionsconnectedwiththetransitionfromtheindustrialtothe technetronicsocietyandto providethebasisforeffectivepoliticalaction,theFrenchandtheItaliancommunist partieshavebeenforcedindilutetheirorthodoxy.Someoftheirtheoreticianshavealreadyemphasizedtheneed toredefinethecommunistpartyasanaltogethernewpartythatwouldincludetheentireleft,thatwouldnotbe ideologicalinthestrictsenseoftheword,andthatwouldcertainlynotbeLeninistinitsbureaucraticstructure. Totheextentthatthesereformistshavebeenthwartedbyconservativepartyleaders,thecommunistpartiesin theWestremainbothsectarianandpoliticallyisolatedtotheextentthatthereformistshavesucceededin gainingsupport,thecommunistpartiesintheWesthavemovedtowarddilutingtheirnineteenthcentury ideologicaltraditionofdogmatic,integrated, and exclusivistgrandvisions. Thesevisionscannolonger encompasseitherthenewscientificrevolutionortherevolutionsofthestudentsandintellectuals,whohave replacedthecommunistsastheantiestablishmentariansofourtime.Whatevertheresponse,thebasicfact remainsthatintheWestthecommunistpartiesarenolongereitherinnovativeorrevolutionary.

ChinaandGlobalRevolution
ThoughitcametoolateintheWest,communismhascometooearlyfortheEast,or,moregenerally, fortheThird Worldasa whole.InsteadofbeingtheinternationalizingandhumanizingforcethatMarx conceivedsocialismtobe,communismintheEastisatbestaninspirationforintenselynationalistic modernizationorofrevolutionaryresistancetosocialexploitationatworst,itisthebasisfordespoticfanaticism andmassiveoppression.AsintheWest,communism'svirtueshavemoreoftenbeendemonstratedwhenithas beenoutofpowerandhasactedasacatalystinthestruggleagainstinequality,socialinjustice,orforeigndom ination.Inpower,ithastendedtobecomeextremelyoppressive,fanatical,andintenselynationalistic. CommunismintheEast,evenmorethanintheWest,hasbeenaparticularlyimportantforcein stimulatingpopulistnationalism.Thisisquiteunderstandable.CommunismcametotheThirdWorldmasses beforetheirpoliticalawakening,andithassucceededonlywhereithasbecomeboththeexternalexpressionand theinternalcontentofthenewsenseofnationalidentity.Focusingonindustrializationasthewayinwhichto fulfillpopularaspirationsonbothexternalanddomesticlevels,communismgalvanizedfeelingsofinferiority towardthemoreadvancedWest.Indeed,becauseofthis,communismintheThirdWorldhasbeenespecially vulnerabletotheracismthatgiventhebitterlegacyofthewhiteman'simperialisminevitablyinfectedthe 45 newnationalism. Racism,however,isoneofthemostprimitiveandirrationalsourcesofmotivation,anda communistideologyreinforcedbyitwhetherinAsiaorinAfricacannothelpbutbedeprivedofbothits universalityanditsrationality. Analtogetherdifferentchallengetocommunism'sideologicalandinstitutionalglobalrelevancehas beenposedbythevictoryofChinesecommunism.Chinesecommunismhasnotonlyparalleledtheclaimof Sovietcommunismtobe the purecommunismofourtime,buthasbeenwillingtobackitsclaimwithdomestic revolutionaryaction.The"CulturalRevolution"ofthelate1960s,whichfollowedbyafewyearsthe"Great LeapForward"ofthelate1950s,wasdesignedtoovercometherulingparty'sdangeroustendencytoward bureaucraticstagnationandideologicalpetrifaction.TheChinesehaveexplicitlystatedthat,intheirview,the Sovietpartyhadalreadybecomeavictimofsuchpetrifaction.TheCulturalRevolution(theintellectual equivalentofthesocioeconomicshakeupeffectedbytheGreatLeapForward)wasdesignedtobetheinternal,
*

Orevenparticipationintheirnationalestablishments.Amovingaccountoftheeffortsofadevotedcommunistmilitanttoarouseher party'sofficialstotheplightoftheNeapolitanmassesandtostimulate amorerevolutionaryattitudeinthemisprovidedbyM.A. Macciocchi,Letteredall'internodelPCIaLouisAlthusser, Milan,1969.Inherdiaryshedescribeshereffortstogaintheconfidenceofthe workersandevenmorefutiletomakediepartybureaucratsmoresensitivetotheworkers'abysmalconditions. ThefirstsituationhasbeenmoretrueoftheFrenchCommunistParty,andGeorgeLichtlieimwasquitecorrectinstatingthat"iftheroleof MarxistdoctrineincontemporaryFrancecanbereducedtoaformula,itmaybesummedupbysayingthatfromthevisionofarevolutionary futureithasturnedintothecriticalcontemplationof aneternalandseeminglyunchangeablepresent"(GeorgeLichtheim,Marxismin ModernFrance, astudybytheResearch InstituteonCommunistAffairs,NewYork,1966,p.169).Thesecondsituationismoreapplicable totheItalianparty,inwhichthemostexplicitconceptofthenewbroadpartywasdevelopedbyoneofitstheoreticians,G.Amendola,ina seriesofarticles publishedinthefallof1964inthetheoreticaljournaloftheItalianCommunistParty,Rinascita. Inthesearticleshecalled forthecreationofasinglepartyoftheleft,whichwouldbeneithercommunistnorsocialdemocratic,neithershackledbyideologynor dominatedbythepartycadres.

73

domesticexpressionofthelivingandcontinuingrevolution.Itsoveralleffect,however,wastodotothe ChineseCommunistPartywhatKhrushchev'sabortedreformsof1963almostdidtotheSovietparty:to 48 thoroughlydisorganizeit,and,withit,theChineseeconomyaswell. BydenigratingthepartyandbysimultaneouslyelevatingMaoTsetung'spersonalruleandrole, Chinesecommunisminevitablyseparateditselffromthetraditionalcommunistmainstreaminspiteofthe ChinesetheorythatthegeographicvortexofrevolutionaryleadershiphasovertheyearsshiftedfromFranceto GermanytoRussiaandnowtoChina.Moreover,unlikeStalin,whoseroleintheinternationalcommunist movementwasreinforcedbyatoweringpersonalstandingandbyleadershipoftheonlycommunistpartyin power,Maowasfacedbyanumberofotherrulingcommunistparties,alldisputinghisclaimtoorthodoxyand alleagertopointouthisdoctrinalerrors.TheeffectwastoweakenChina'sinternationalclaimtoideological universalityandtotarnishboththerevolutionaryprestigeoftheChinesecommunistsandtheirundeniably 47 impressiveachievementsinthestruggletoovercomeChina'sbackwardness. China'scapacitytoserveasamodelofcommunismwasfurthercomplicatedbytheuniquecharacterof Chinaitself.TheChinesecommunistscametopowernotinasinglecountrybutinavastsocietythatrepresents acomprehensiveandsophisticatedcivilization.Notonlyisthatcivilizationhighlydistinctivebutithasfora longtimehaditsownconceptofaworldorderinwhichChinaisthetraditionalcenter.Thoughthehistoricaland universalcategoriesofMarxistthoughthavebeenassimilatedintothatChineseframeworkandbecomean extensionofit,thecultural,linguistic,andracialdistinctivenessoftheChinesehasautomaticallymadetheir communismmuchmoredifficulttoexportoremulate. Moreover,unliketheRussians,whohaveoftenreferredtoMoscowasthe"ThirdRome,"theChinese havetraditionallydisplayednointensemissionaryzeal.Effectiveperformanceinthemissionaryrolerequires,in additiontopersonalinclination,somecultural,philosophic,andevenethnickinship,tosaynothingofa proselytizingtradition.Itisnoaccidentthat,despiteitsmissionaryzeal,EuropeanbasedChristianitywasmuch lesssuccessfulinitseffortstospreadtoAsiathanwastheEast'sMiddleIslam.Perhapsaracialappeal explicitlybasedoncolorandideologicallylegitimizedbytheidentificationofthewhitemanwithimperialism maycreateabridgebetweenChineseproselytizersandforeignmasses,buteventhatappealismorelikelytobe effectiveinareassufficientlydistantfromChinanottobefearfulofChinesenationalismandChina'scultural hegemony.HenceAfrica,ratherthanAsia,maybeamorepromisinglongrangeChinesetarget. TheseconsiderationsprovidesomecluestotheprobablelimitsofChina'srevolutionaryworldrole. NeitherChineseverbalextremismnorevenChina'scrashprogramtoestablishanucleararsenal(theoldquestion ofintentionsorcapabilities)isasimportantasthefactthatChinahasbecomeasomewhatselfcontained civilizationnationstate.China'spowerwillprobablygrowintheyearstocome,andwithitChina'scapacityto 48 threatenitsneighborsandeventuallyeventheUnitedStatesortheSovietUnion. Butitdoesnotfollowthat Chinawillthereforebecomeanactivistdirectorofmilitantandgloballyrelevantrevolutionaryprocesses.Onthe contrary,asmemoriesofChineserevolutionaryachievementsgraduallyrecedeintothe past,Chinawillfindit moreandmoredifficulttopresentitselfasthehistoricallyrelevantrevolutionarymodel.China'saidwillbe acceptedbyneedyrevolutionaries,butitwillprobablybecomemoreratherthanlessdifficultfortheChineseto convincetherecipientsofsuchaidthatChinahasauniversalmission. Norisitcertain,ashasbeenoccasionallyargued,thatintheyearstocomecommunismwilloffertothe ThirdWorldanattractivemodelcombiningsustainedeconomicdevelopmentandsocialmodernizationwith politicalstability.EvenifChinamakesimpressivestridesanditsGNPgrowssteadilyat5percentperannum,in theyear2000itwillstillbeamongthepoorernationsoftheworld.Thefactisthatitsnumbers,farfrombeinga factorofstrength,merelymagnifythescaleofitssocialandeconomicdilemmas.TherelevanceofSoviet economicexperiencetotheThirdWorldisalsodoubtful.AnalysisoftheSovietexperiencestronglysuggests thatindustrializationneednotbederivedfromtheimpetusprovidedbyextraordinarilycoercivemeansorfrom thephysicaldestructionofasocialclass.Moreover,itisimportanttonotethatSovietindustrializationoccurred inasocietythathadsomethirtyyearsofpriorindustrialdevelopmentbehindit,thatwasendowedwith matchlessnaturalresourcesandahardworkinganddisciplinedpopulation(butnotoverpopulation),andthat evenbeforeWorldWarIhadtheadvantagesofsolidstatistics,relativelywelltrainedtechnicalcadres,and preliminaryplansforfuturedevelopment.(Seeourearlierdiscussionof"TheStalinistParadox.")These conditionscanrarelybematchedbytheThirdWorldcountriesnowundertakingtomodernizeandindustrialize themselves.WhetherChinaorCuba(thelatter,inanycase,relativelywelldevelopedatthetimeofCastro'stake over)canprovideexamplesofsustainedgrowthandpoliticalstabilityisuncertain. Ofthecountrieswherecommunismcametopowerwithoutbeingimposedbyforeignintervention(the SovietUnion,China,Cuba,Yugoslavia,Albania,Vietnam),onlyYugoslaviahassofarsucceededinachieving sustainedeconomicgrowth,socialmodernization,andpoliticalstabilitywithoutemployingmassiveterroror experiencingviolentpowerconflictsevenYugoslavia,however,requiredextensiveoutsidefinancialaid. Moreover,thoughtherecordofeconomicdevelopmentofcommunistcountries,particularlythemoreprimitive ones,isgood,ithasnotbeenbetterthanthatofsomenoncommunistcountries.Inaddition,mostcommunist politicalsystems(exceptforYugoslavia,Vietnam,andCuba)havebeencharacterizedbysporadicpolitical instability,whichinsomecaseshadtobeputdownthroughSovietintervention.Thustheoverallrecordis,at best,amixedoneandhardlysufficienttojustifytheargumentthatonlythecommunistshavefoundthe keyto

74

* effectivemodernization. Nor,forthatmatter,havetheyfoundtheanswertoeffectiverevolutionmaking.Communismcameto powerindigenouslyinonlyonecountrynotpreviouslydevastatedbyamajorwar Cuba.Inseveralother countriesitcametopowerindigenouslywhencommunistspickedupthepiecesafterthesenationshad experiencedcompletedestructionoftheirstatemachineryandeconomyduringamajorwar.Otherthanthat,the communistrevolutionaryrecordsince1917hasbeenoneofratherfrequentfailure,+whileinPoland,Hungary, andRumaniaitwastheSovietarmythatestablishedcommunism. Nevertheless,itisquitepossiblethatintheyearstocomeindividual,highlynationalistic,perhapseven racistcommunistpartieswillcometopowerinsomeAsian,African,orLatinAmericancountriesbyappealing bothtothepopulistnationalismofthemassesandthestatismofimpatientintellectuals.Inhisstudy Communism andthePoliticsofDevelopment, JohnKautskyhasshownthat"Communistpartystrengthislowestatthelowest stageofeconomicdevelopment,risesgraduallywitheconomicdevelopment,crestsatafairlyhighlevelofsuch development,anddeclinessharplywiththehighestlevel."49 Thisgeneralizationshouldnotbemechanically appliedtotheThirdWorldwiththeconclusionthatcommunismwillfadeassoonasdevelopmenthasmade substantialprogress.Aseizureofpowercould,forexample,occurduringtheintermediaryphase. Itis,however, unlikelythattheseseizuresofpowerwillbeeffectedbytheorthodoxandformalcommunistparties,whichin somecountries(particularlyinLatinAmerica)arealreadybecomingassimilatedintothesocialestablishment. Thesuccessfulrevolutionaries,thoughperhapslabelingthemselvescommunists,willprobablybeloosely organizedcoalitionsofimpatientmiddleclassintellectuals,youngerofficers,andstudents.Insteadofbeing adherentsofadogmaticandallegedlyuniversalideology,theyaremorelikelytobemenmotivatedbyavaguer andmorevolatilecombinationofradicalism,nationalism,andevensomeracism.Communistparties,though experiencedinorganizingexploited,disadvantagedworkersandintransforminglandlessbutnationalistically arousedpeasantsintorevolutionaryarmies,havesofarbeenunabletodiscipline,eitherideologicallyor organizationally,thestudentsandtheintellectualsfermentinginthemodernstainlesssteelandglass universities.Tothesemen,FanonandBoumedienne,orBolivarandGuevara,ratherthanMarxandMao,or MarxandLenin,aremorerelevantsymbols.Therevolutionstocomewillhenceneithersignifyanautomatic additionofstrengthto"internationalcommunism"norrepresentastepforwardtowardtheintellectualunityof mankind. Theideologicallymorevolatile,lessdisciplinedcharacterofthesenovelrevolutionary.forceswouldbe inkeepingwiththebroadertrends alreadynoted.Conditionsduringtheearlyindustrialagecalledforintellectual andorganizationalintegration,butthedynamiccongestionoftheglobalcityisinimicaltoadisciplined, centralizedinternationalorganizationwhosepurposeistodisseminateaparticularsystemofthoughtandof valuesandtocreateagloballyuniformsocialorderonthatbasis.Thefactisthatproximityparadoxically dictatesnotuniformitybutpluralism. Moreover,thechancesoftrulyrevolutionaryupheavalsradicallyandrapidlyrevolutionizingboth socialvaluesandinstitutionsareinanycasenothigh.InmoderntimesonlytheFrench,theMexican,andthe Cubanrevolutionscanbeconsideredasauthenticallyindigenousandfarreachinginternalrevolutionsthat were achievedwithoutthebenefitofthecataclysmicdislocations wroughtbythetwoworldwars.Otherwise,eventhe mostineffectivesocialandpoliticalsystemshaveshownthemselvestobehighlyresilientanddifficultto overthrow.Inmostcasesithasbeenfoundthatsocialinertiacanonlybecopedwithpiecemealandthat superimposedradicaleffortstoovercomeithavepromptedeffectiveresistance. AtonetimeSoviettheoriststoyedwiththeconceptofthenationaldemocracyasatransitionalstage towardacommunistpeople'sdemocracy.TheoverthrowofBenBella,Goulart,Kassem,Keita,Nkrumah, Papandreou,andSukarnohascompelledtheSovietstothinkintermsofmuchlengthierandmoregradualrevo lutionaryprocessesatthesametime,the ChineseandtheCubanshavemovedtowardemphasisonvarious formsofguerrillawar,ofteninthefaceofopencriticismfromlocalcommunistparties. Bothcaseshave involvedanimpliedadmissionoftheincreasingirrelevanceoftheclassicalrevolutionarytheoryanda concessiontosocialparticularism,whichwhenlinkedtoideologicaldogmatismmeanssectarianism. Sectarianismisthenegationofuniversalism.Communismmayturnouttohavebeenthelastgreat integrativedogmaticfaith.Totheextentthatsomecommunistpartiesaretodayjoiningtheirnational establishments,theyareconformingtorealityratherthanformingit.Totheextentthatsomecommunistparties areembracingracismandintensenationalismintheThirdWorld,theyarecapitulatingtorealityratherthan *

Intheserespects,usefulcomparisonscanbemadebetweencommunistruledcountriesandcountriesruledbymodernizingnoncommunist elitesPolandSpainItalyRumaniaYugoslaviaSpainCzechoslovakiaSwedenHungaryAustriaNorthKoreaSouthKoreaNorth VietnamSouthVietnamChinaIndiaandsoon.Thesecomparisonsaremorerevealingofcertainuniformitiesthanofsignificant disparities.Thedisparitiesaresharperwhenthecomparisonismadewithnonmodernizing,noncommunistcountries.+Apartiallistof moresignificantrevolutionaryeffortsbythecommunistsincludes:Hungary1919Poland1920Germany1918,1923China1927France andItaly1947Greece1948Indonesia1949,1965Bolivia1966. The issuesatstakeweresharplyposedbythesecretarygeneraloftheVenezuelanCommunistParty,JesusFaria,whostatedinan interviewprintedintheHungarianpartyorgan,Nepszabadsag (February17,1968):"Experiencehasshownthatthemassesarewithdrawing fromthepreviousarmedstruggle....Fourmillionpeopleareparticipatingintheelectioncampaignandwebelievethatwecanorientthe peoplebetterifwealsoparticipateinthiscampaign....TheultraleftistgroupsinVenezuela,whichdisregardthecombatreadinessofthe massesandpersistinthesloganofarmedstruggleatanyprice,commitonemistakeafteranotherandfindthemselvesmoreandmore isolated."

75

reshapingit.Ineithercasethereisalossofidentitywhich,oncelost,isnotlikelytoberegained.Thus,evenif oneisnotaMarxist,itisnotnecessarilyacauseforrejoicingtonotethatcommunismwhichhelpedtoenlarge thecollectiveconsciousnessofmankindandtomobilizethemassesforsocialprogresshasfailedinitsoriginal objectiveoflinkinghumanismwithinternationalism.

76

PARTIV
TheAmericanTransition
Thereissomethingawesomeandbafflingaboutasocietythatcansimultaneouslychangeman'srelationshipto theuniversebyplacingamanonthemoon,wageandfinanceathirtybilliondollarperannumforeignwar despisedbyasignificantportionofitspeople,maintainthemostpowerfulandfarflung militaryforcesin history,andconfrontinthestreetsandabetinthecourtsarevolutioninitsinternalracialrelations,doingallthis inthecontextoftheexplosionofhigherlearninginitsrapidlyexpandingandturbulentuniversities,ofrotting urbancenters,offumblingpoliticalinstitutions,andofdynamicallygrowingfrontierindustriesthatare transformingtheway.itscitizensliveandcommunicatewithoneanother.Anyoneoftheaboveaspectswould sufficetotransformthevaluesandselfimageofasociety,andafewmightbeenoughtooverthrowitssystem. Alltogether,theycreateasituationthatdefiesanalogytoothersocietiesandhighlightsthesingularcharacterof thecontemporaryAmericanexperience. ContemporaryAmericaistheworld'ssociallaboratory.Theproblemsthatthemoreadvancedworldis beginningtoconfront andtheThirdWorldiswitnessingabsorbAmericadirectlyandoftenpainfully.Itisin theUnitedStatesthatthecrucialdilemmasofouragemanifestthemselvesmoststarklyitisintheUnitedStates thatman'scapacitytomasterhisenvironmentandtodefinehimselfmeaningfullyinrelationshiptoitisbeing mostintenselytested.Canmanmasterscienceforfundamentallyhumaneends?Canlibertyandequalitycoexist, anddosoinamultiracialenvironment?Canmeritandachievementflourishwithoutspecialprivilege?Can technologybesociallycreativewithoutinducingexcessivesocialcontrol?Canasocietywithdiversebeliefs avoidcompletedisbelief?TheseissuesdominatecontemporaryAmericanlifethefocusofglobalattention 1 andtheypromptconflictingandoftencriticalassessmentsofthemeaningoftheAmericanexperience. UnlikethesituationintheSovietUnion,inAmericathechallengeof changeishighlyvisible.Inthe SovietUnionsocietyislikeaboilingsubterraneanvolcanothatstrainsagainsttherigidsurfacecrustofthe politicalsystem.InthemorevolatileUnitedStates,social,economic,andpoliticalforcesopenlyclash,change, andinteractonabroadfront.Theresultingturmoilisascreativeasitisdestructive,anditleadstometamorphic changesinthatuniquecombinationoforderandchaosknownastheUnitedStates. InthenexttwentyyearsthepopulationoftheUnitedStateswillapproachthreehundredmillion,of whichapproximately80percentwillbemetropolitanandalmost50percentundertwentyyearsofage. Intenselyscientificinorientation,Americansocietywillhavegreatermasteryofbothterrestrialand spatial environmentthananyothersociety.Atthesametimeitwillhaveexperiencedintensesocialconflictsinwhich racialconsiderationswillbeparamountbutinwhichantagonismbetweengenerationswillalsobeabasicand painfulburden.Inalllikelihooditwillalsobeasocietyconfrontinganacuteculturalmalaise, uncertainofits aestheticstandards,andsearchingforcommonintegrativevalues. ContemporaryAmericaisintransitionfromtheindustrialtothetechnetronicage.Astheworld'sfirst postindustrialsociety,theUnitedStatesisnolongershapedbythesameforcesthathavestimulatedsocial changeintheadvancedcountrieseversinceEnglandfirstconfrontedthemachine.Thisbroadtransformationis causingacrisisofestablishedAmericanvaluesandinstitutions,particularlythe"traditionofliberaldemocracy, andasthenation'stwohundredthbirthdayapproaches,itthereforecallsforaredefinitionoftheAmerican system. Liberaldemocracyisapeculiarblendofthearistocratictradition,constitutionallegalism,andmass democracy.Unlikecommunism,itwasnotintellectuallyextractedfromatelescopedandtraumatichistorical experience,anditisnotembodiedinamovementwhichdrawsitsfervoranddedicationfromthedeeplyem beddedManichaeantradition.Rather,itistheproductofslowgrowththoughoccasionallyacceleratedby revolutionaryupheavalsinEngland,theUnitedStates,andFrancewhichcumulativelycreatedabroad traditionofsocialbehavior,aset ofonlypartiallyexplicitvalues,andhighlydefinedlegalproceduresand institutions.Thearistocratictraditionputapremiumonpersonalexcellenceandachievement,thoughintime standardsofexcellencechangedandbecamelessexclusive.Legalism,whichinthepastdoubtlessservedto protectestablishedinterests,stressedregularityandobjectivityinsocialrelationsandthereforegraduallycameto protecttheindividual.Thedemocraticelement,stimulatedthroughuniversalsuffrage,notonlydilutedthe aristocraticcomponentbutinfusedliberaldemocracywithastrongconcernforsocialwelfare. Thesecomponentshavecombinedinalooseandoccasionallyuneasymanner,andfromtimetotime theyhaveconflictedandclashed.InAmericanhistory suchclasheshavebeenviolent,thoughonthewhole rathersporadic.TheCivilWarwasthemajorexception,anditsoutcomeeffectivelyandrapidlydestroyedthe aristocraticelementinAmericantradition,whereasthedeclineofEuropeanaristocracywasslow.Theindustrial revolutionproduceditsownstrainsandviolence,buttherapidpaceofgrowthaswellastheavailabilityof Europeancapitalandofforeignmarketseasedthegrowingpainsevenasitenlargedandthenconsolidatedthe democraticcomponent.TheresultingsocialwealthanddemocraticfreedomhavemadeAmericathesymbolofa newformofsocialorganization,allthemoreattractivebecauseitsspectacularsuccessesobscureditssocial blemishes. 77

Thisphaseiscomingtoanend.ThesocialblindersthathavemadeAmericaunawareofits shortcomingshavebeenrippedoff,andthepainfulawarenessofAmericansociety'slingeringinadequacyhas beenrenderedmoreacutebytheintensityandpaceofchange.Inaword,Americaisundergoinganew revolution,whosedistinguishingfeatureisthatitsimultaneouslymaximizesAmerica'spotentialasitunmasksits obsolescence.

1.TheThirdAmericanRevolution
ItiseasytopinpointtheFrenchandtheMexicanrevolutions,ortheBolshevik,theChinese,andthe Cubanrevolutions.ItisalsonotdifficulttoidentifythefirstAmericanrevolution.Fromacolonythatrevolution createdanationimplicitthoughstronglyfeltbeliefsgavebirthtoaDeclarationofIndependenceanda Constitution,bothofwhicharticulatednovelprinciplesofpoliticalandsocialorder. HistoricaldefinitionbecomesmorecomplexwhendealingwiththesecondAmericanrevolution. Preciselywhendidithappenandwhatdiditdo?Thoughthatrevolutioncannotbepinpointedwiththesame accuracyasthefirst,itisafactthatanessentiallyrural,partiallyaristocratic,andevenslaveowningsocietywith * alimitedrepresentativepoliticalsystemwastransformed intoanurbanindustrialnation whoserelativelegal politicalsocialequalityextendedatleastinformtoalmost90percentofitspeopleandwhosepublicethos wasdominatedlargelybywidespreadacceptanceofsocialwelfare,effectedthroughgovernmentalintervention. Thus,ittoowasarealrevolution,thoughnotascontainedintimeasthefirst.IttooktheCivilWar,theindus trializationofthecountry,themassiveinfluxofimmigrants,and,finally,theNewDealtotransform American society.Tocallitarevolutionisadmittedlytostretchthedefinitionofrevolution,butthereisnodoubtthatboth theinstitutionsandthevaluesoftheUnitedStatesweretherebyprofoundlyalteredinalittleoveracentury. ThethirdAmericanrevolutionisevenhardertodefine,forwearenowinthemiddleofitandthus cannotbecertainofitsoutcome.Inonerespect,however,itiseasiertoidentifythanthesecond,foritsimpact anditseffectaremoreconcentratedintime.ThethirdrevolutionbegangatheringmomentumafterWorldWar II,withthemassiveentranceintocollegesofexGIswiththeconcomitantexplosioninhigherlearningandthe growingacceptanceofthesocialprimacyofeducationwiththeunionofnationalpowerandmodernscience crownedbytheharnessingofnuclearenergyandthefederalgovernmentemergingasamajorsponsorof scientificinvestigationwiththesuddenbirthofrapidcontinentalcommunications,rangingfromtheworld's mostmodernanddevelopedhighwaysystem,throughrapidairpassengertransport,toauniquelyeffective instanttranscontinentaltelephone system,andfinallytoanationwidetelevisionintimacywiththe transformationinmanagerialtechniqueswroughtbytheappearanceofcomputersandotherelectronicdevices thatconquercomplexity,distance,andeventhediffusionofauthorityandwiththefadingofindustryasthe mostimportantsourceofemploymentformostAmericans.Promptedbytechnology andparticularlyelectronics, thethirdrevolutionischangingthebasicinstitutionsandvaluesofAmericansocietyand,aswasalsothecase withtheprecedingrevolutions,itisencounteringresistance,stimulatingviolence,causinganxiety,andstirring hope. Intheprocess,itiscreatingthreeAmericasinone.ThereistheemergingnewAmericasymbolizedby thenewcomplexesoflearning,research,anddevelopmentthatlinkinstitutionsofhigherlearningwithsociety andcreateunprecedentedopportunitiesforinnovationandexperimentation,inadditiontosparkingincreased interestinthefineartsandculture,asisevidencedbynewmuseumsandartcenters.TechnetronicAmericaisin 2 theelectronicslaboratoriesandcentersoflearningalongRoute 128surroundingBoston, itisintheacademic scientificconglomeratesaroundLosAngelesandSanFranciscoanditisinthenewfrontierindustries.The suburbanmiddleclassincreasinglygravitatestowardthisAmerica,thoughfrequentlyresentingitsscientismand nostalgicallyyearningformorecommunityandstability. IndustrialAmericathesecondAmericaisintheestablishedfactoriesandsteelmillsofDetroitand Pittsburgh,whoseskilledbluecollarworkersaregraduallyforgettingthetraumasoftheGreatDepressionand beginningtoenjoybothsecurityandleisurebutarefearfullesttheirnewsocialpositionbethreatenedfrom below.ForthissecondAmericalivesalongsidethedecayingslumsoftheindustrialbigcities,increasingly populatedbyaracialminoritythatismoredifficulttoabsorbbecausethesocietywaslateindrawingitintothe industrialage. Finally,thereistheoriginal,thefirstAmerica,thepreindustrialAmericaofsharecroppersandmigrant workersfromtheMississippideltaandofobsolescentminersfromAppalachia,whoseincomehasfallenbehind theAmericanaverage.InthisAmericaaccesstoeducationisconsiderablylessthanelsewhereinthenation,and 3 racialdiscriminationisovert. ThisAmericaisseeking toenterboththeindustrialandthepostindustrialages, andtodosoitmustobtaintheassistanceofthenewAmerica,whosevaluesandconceptsitoftenmistrustsand rarelyshares. ThenewAmericaisonlynowtakingshape."Today,notonlydoesachildfacearadicalrupturewith thepast,buthemustbetrainedforanunknownfuture.Andthistaskconfrontstheentiresocietyaswell."4 The
*

In1800theruralpopulationoftheUnitedStatesaccountedforabout94percentofthetotalin1850,forapproximately85percentin 1900,60percentin1950,35percent.Itisestimatedthatbytheyear2000theruralpopulationwillbeapproximately50millionoutofa totalof300million,or17percent.In1969,73 percentofallAmericanslivedononepercentoftheland(Time, January24,1969,pp.18, 3033).

78

currenttransformationalsoposesprofoundphilosophicalissuesconcerningtheveryessenceofsocialexistence, sinceitislargelyderivedfromanunprecedentedexpansionofscientificpoweroverbothman'senvironmentand * 5 manhimself. Studiesofchange cumulativelyreinforcethepictureofasocietyundergoingafarreaching, technologicallyinducedrevolution.

ThePaceandThrustofProgress
ThefactsreflectingchangeinAmericaarefamiliarandthereforeneednotberelatedindetail.Thereis, firstofall,themassiveexpansioninthesectorofsocietyconcernedwithscienceandknowledge.Thismeansa significantgrowthmorerapidthanthatintheothersectorsinthenumberofscientists,collegestudents,and, ofcourse,theinstitutionsthatnurturethem. Asa result,theuniversityhasemergedasthecreativecoreofthe massivelearningcommunicationscomplex,thesourceofmuchdomesticandinternationalstrategicinnovation. Insocialprestigeandinfluence,theuniversityisdisplacingtheequivalentinstitutionsofthemoretraditional America:thechurchandbigbusiness. Theemphasisonscienceandlearninggoeshandinhandwiththerationalizationoftechniquesandthe introductionofnewteaching,managerial,computing,andcommunicationsdevices,whicharealtering establishedpracticesandchangingthemethodsusedtostoreandretrieveaccumulatedknowledge.Anational informationgridthatwillintegrateexistingelectronicdatabanksisalreadybeingdeveloped6 topoolthenation's accumulatedknowledge.Increasinglyswampedlibrariesmaysoonfindreliefbyshiftingtotheultramicrofiche technique,pioneeredbyNASA,bywhichatwothousandpagebookcanbereducedtoatransparencysmaller thantheaveragebookpagethiswillmakeitfeasibleforeverysmallcollegetopossessalibraryinferiorto 7 none. ThoughAmericaneducationaltheoristsdisagreeaboutthedegreetowhichtheeducationalsystemscan adaptthenewtechniques,theirdebatesrevealtheextenttowhichtechnicalassimilationratherthan 8 philosophicalissuesdominatestheirthinking. Contemporarybusinessputsasimilarpremiumonknowledgeandtherapidadaptationofnew techniques.Thisrequiresthepoolingofresources,andcollectiveorganizationalefforts,thefrequentand systematicretrainingoftoppersonnel,andaclosetiewiththecentersofknowledge.Linearprogramming,a systemsapproachtoproblems,coordinatedteamwork,andahighlysophisticatedattitudetowardhuman relationsandlaborpsychologyarebecomingthedominantfeaturesofmanagerialprocesses.Accordingto LawrenceAppley,chairmanoftheAmericanManagementAssociation,thenumberofmanagersinvolvedin professionalmanagementsocietiesandworkingwithmanagementconsultantshasrisenfromtenthousandin 8 1948tooversixhundredthousandin1962. Operationally,businesslessandlessresemblesapoliticalhierarchy orapersonalfiefdomitisincreasinglysimilartoasystematicscientificundertakingthatnotonlyproduceswhat isknownbutsystematicallyseekstoexplorewhatistocome. Insummarizingthesocialtransformationwroughtbytechnology,DanielBelllistedfivekeyareasofchange: "(1)Byproducingmoregoodsatlesscost,technologyhasbeenthechiefengineofraisingthelivingstandardsof theworld.... (2) Technologyhascreatedanewclass,hithertounknowninsociety,oftheengineerandthetechnician....
*

ThediscussioninthefirstsectionofPartIofthisbookisparticularlyrelevanttounderstandingcontemporaryAmerica,sinceitdealswith thebasic differencesbetweenanindustrialandatechnetronicsociety. Thescaleofthatchangecanbeillustratedbyafewfigures.Collegeenrollmentsincreasedby45percentintheyears19641969.In1965 morethan50percentofalladultswerehighschoolgraduatesin1900thecorrespondingfigurewasonlyonepercent!(Forbackground data,seeA.J.Marrow,D.G.Bowers,S.E.Seashore,ManagementbyParticipation, NewYork,1967.)Thenumberofteachersincreased fromabout1.3millionin1954toabout2.1millionadecadelaterthenumberofengineersgrewfromabouthalfamilliontoalmosta million.AnOECDstudyofAmericanscienceestimatesthatbetween1963and1970thescientificpopulationoftheUnitedStateswillhave grownfrom2.7millionto4million,withdoctoratesinscienceincreasingfrom96,000to153,000andthoseinengineeringfrom10,000to 17,000.In18691870,roughlyatthebeginningofAmerica'sindustrialrevolution,thenumberofalldegreesawardedbyinstitutionsof higherlearningwasjustunder10,000in18891890itwas17,000in19391940,216,000adecadelateritwas497,000andin19631964, 614,000.Inthepasttwentyyearsinvestmentsinresearchanddevelopmenthaveincreasedfifteenfold,expendituresin educationsixfold, whiletheGNPhastripled(seeDanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"pp.201,206,228and ReviewsofNational SciencePolicy:UnitedStates, OECD,pp.45,54). "Thenewstyleofdealingwiththefuturehasnoaccepted,inclusivename,butthenamesofitsmorehighlydevelopedtechniqueshave becomefamiliarinthelasttenyearstomostbusinessmen,governmentofficials,militaryofficers,scientists,andtechnicians.Thetechniques themselves,whichareapttobecalled'systemsanalysis'or'systemsplanning,'arenowwidelyusedbothwithandwithoutthehelpof computers.'Costbenefit'or'costeffectiveness'analysisisamajoringredientofthenewtechniquesthisinvolveswaysofarrayingendsand meanssothatdecisionmakershaveclearerideasofthechoicesopentothemandbetterwaysofmeasuringresultsagainstbothexpectations andobjectives. "Amongcharacteristicsofthenewpatternarethese:(1)Amoreopenanddeliberateattentiontotheselectionofendstowardwhichplanned actionisdirected,andanefforttoimproveplanningbysharpeningthedefinitionofends.(2)Amoresystematicadvancecomparisonof meansbycriteriaderivedfromtheendsselected.(3)Amorecandidandeffectiveassessmentofresults,usuallyincludingasystemof keepingtrackofprogresstowardinterimgoals.Alongwiththisgoesa'marketlike'sensitivitytochangingvaluesandevolvingends.(4)An effort,oftenintellectuallystrenuous,tomobilizescienceandotherspecializedknowledgeintoaflexibleframeworkofinformationand decisionsothatspecificresponsibilitiescanbeassignedtothepointsofgreatestcompetence.(5)Anemphasisoninformation,prediction, andpersuasion,ratherthanoncoerciveor authoritarianpower,asthemainagentsofcoordinatingtheseparateelementsofaneffort.(6)An increasedcapabilityofpredictingthecombinedeffectofseverallinesofsimultaneousactionononeanotherthiscanmodifypolicysoasto reduceunwantedconsequencesoritcangenerateother lines ofactiontocorrectorcompensateforsuchpredictedconsequences"(Max Ways,"TheRoadto1977,"Fortune, January1967,pp.9495).

79

(3)Technologyhascreatedanewdefinitionofrationality,anewmodeofthought,whichemphasizesfunctional relationsandthequantitative (4)Therevolutionsintransportationandcommunication,asaconsequenceoftechnology,havecreatednew economicinterdependenciesand newsocialinteractions 10 (5)Estheticperceptions,particularlyofspaceandtime,havebeenradicallyaltered." Totheseshouldbeadded thenewsenseofselfawarenessinducedbysociety'sincreasingabilitytosee * itselfinthemirrorprovidedbytelevision,buttressedbyincreasedrelianceonstatisticalanalysis, andintensified byasystematicpreoccupationwithmanagingnotonlythe presentbutthefuture.Moreover,forperhapsthefirst timeinitshistoryAmericansocietyisbeginningtoacquireanationaloutlookonsuchmattersasraceand povertyhence,inadequaciesinonesectorarenolongeramatterofrelativeindifferencetoanotherregionor classorminority.Allthispromptsamoredeliberate,lesshaphazardefforttoidentifysocialinadequacies,andit therebylinksmoraloutrageatsocialinjusticewithamoreoperationalpreoccupationwithimprovingoverall social performance.Man'sinhumanitytomanwascertainlyeasiertoacceptinasettinginwhichhumanrelations weredistant,classinterestswerecompartmentalized,andsocialconsciencewasrarelyarousedbyvisible injustice. Theconsequenceisnotonlyundeniablyrapidprogressinmanyareasandincreasedsocialawarenessof existingfailings,butalsotheintensificationofoldproblemsandtheposingofnewchallenges.Theeconomic basethatdeterminestheaverageAmerican'smateriallothasexpandedinrecentyearsatapacethatmakesthe AmericanpercapitaGNPincreaseatarategreaterthanthatenjoyedeitherbyotheradvancedsocietiesorby 11 those thatarebecomingso. Thischangehasbeenaccompaniedintheyears19591967bysignificant,andeven accelerating,shiftsinincomedistributionandinpatternsofemployment(seeTables11and12).Theseshifts indicatethestrengtheningofthemiddlelevelsofAmericansociety,adevelopmentnotonlysymptomaticof greatersocialegalitarianismbut alsosignificantlyrelevanttothepoliticalaspectsofthecurrentAmerican transition(onwhich TABLE11. CHANGESIN INCOME DISTRIBUTIONANDINEMPLOYMENT
Percentageof Familieswith Incomeof: 1959 1963 19591963 Change 1967 19631967 Change

Over$15,000 31 5.4 +2.3 12.2 +6.8 $5ooo$15,ooo 52.3 58.3 +6.0 62.7 +4.4 Under$5000 44.6 36.2 8.4 25.1 ll.l Basedon"ConsumerIncome,"CurrentPopulationReports, DepartmentofCommerce,August5,1968,pp.27.Thedatainthistableare basedonincomeonly,priortodeductionsfortaxes.However,thereportstates,"Evenafterallowanceforchangesinconsumerprices,family incomehasrisenby3 1/2to4percentineachofthelast4years"(p.1). TABLE12. CHANGESIN EMPLOYMENTIN PERCENTAGES WhiteCollar BlueCollar Service

Farm

1958 42.6 37.1 11.9 8.5 1967 46.0 36.7 12.5 4.8 Source:ManpowerReportofthePresident, DepartmentofLabor,Washington,D.C.,April1968,p.232.

morelater).Inadditiontotheseoverallpercentages,noteshouldbetakenofthefactthatasoftheendofthe 1960sAmericansownedcloseto70millionautomobiles,that95percentofAmericanhouseholdshadatleast onetelevisionsetand25percenthadatleasttwo,andthatover60percentofAmericanfamiliesownedtheir 12 ownhomes. DespitetheindisputablepersistenceofpovertyintheUnitedStates,Americansocietyisachieving anunprecedentedaffluencethattouchesallclasses. ThatpovertybesetsmillionsofAmericanshasbeenamplydocumentedinrecentyears,andthe majority'sindifferenceto thisproblemhasbeenatleastsomewhatshaken.Thepovertylinewasinitiallydefined, byarbitraryandverybroadapproximation,asincomelessthan$3000perannumforafamilyoffour,or$1500 foranindividual.Thereisnodoubtthatsuchalevelinvolvesacutehardshipformost,andevenmalnutritionfor many,butevenmoredebilitatingisthepsychologicalsenseofdeprivationinrelationshipto thesociety'soverall wealth. Nonetheless, heretoothepaceofeconomicgrowth,combinedwithmoredeliberateefforts,hasbrought progress:from1961to1969thegroupbelowthepovertylineasdefinedbytheSocialSecurityAdministration 13 andtakingintoaccounttheriseinpricesdroppedfrom22percentto13percentofthepopulation. Moreover,accordingtotheCouncilofEconomicAdvisors'Reportofearly1969,if19611968ratesinreducing thenumberofpoorpersonsarecontinued,"poverty"willbeentirelyeliminatedintenyearsifthe1968ratesare
*

Itisusefultorecallthatacenturyagoacitizenwouldrarely,ifever,seethecharts,graphs,andtablesthatacontemporaryAmericanreads almostdailyinhispressandthatareastandardfeatureofanyreportorstudy. Itisthispsychologicaldimensionthatsomeforeigncommentatorsneglectwhentheycomment,witha touchofenvy,ontheUnitedStates' definitionofpoverty.Forexample,"...Americadrawsitspovertylineatlevelsthatwouldbeconsideredgenerousabroad.Amidallthesad statisticspouredforthabouttheghettos,itisworthrememberingthatin1967some88percentofallblackAmericanfamilieshada televisionset"("TheNeuroticTrillionaire,"TheEconomist,specialissue,May10,1969,p.51).

80

continued,itwilldisappearinalittleoverfiveyearsatacostof$9.7billionannually(onepercentoftheGNP and5percentofthefederalbudget). Povertyhasplaguedparticularly,butnotexclusively,theblackAmericans.In1966 theirnationwide 14 medianincomewasonly58percentofthemedianincomeofwhitesby1968thishadgrownto60percent. Blacksaretheprincipalvictimsofpoorhousing,poorschooling,andunemployment.Theurbanslums,inhabited byamuchgreaterpercentageofblacksthanwhites(andblacksintheUnitedStatestodayaremorehighly urbanizedthanwhites),imposelivingconditionsreminiscentoftheworstphasesofindustrializationandallthe moreintolerablebecausetheyarenolongerapartof economicgrowthbutavestigialreminderofanagewhich Americaisincreasinglyleavingbehind. Nevertheless,heretooeconomicgrowthandtheappearanceof newsocialvaluesmakeaccelerating progressvisible.Theobviousbreakthroughshavebeenonthe legallevelofcivilrights,especiallyineducation andhousing,buttheyhavealsotakenplaceontheeconomiclevel.In1961,56percentofAmericanblackswere classifiedaspoor,butby1969thefigurehaddroppedto33percentin1956,only9percentofNegrofamilies hadincomesofmorethan$7000,butby1968thishadgrownto28percent,andthemedianincomeofablack 15 familywas$5360. Between1960and1966thenumberofblacksinprofessional,technical,andmanagerial jobsdoubled,and substandardhousingoccupiedbyblacksdroppedfrom40percentin1960to24percentin 1968.AccordingtoaGalluppoll,between1963and1969thenumberofblacksexpressingsatisfactionwiththeir jobsincreasedfrom54percentto76percent,andthenumberofthoseblackssatisfiedwiththeirhousingrose 16 from43percentto50percent. ExtensivechangeisalsotakingplaceinAmerica'soverallculturallife.Increasededucation,greater leisure,andperhapsanunconsciousreactiontothedangerthattechnologycouldbreedculturalemptinesshave ledtoaheightenedinterestinmusic,drama,andthevisualarts.Thishasnotonlyinvolvedaspurtinthe constructionofartcentersandrenewedlifeforAmericanmuseumsbuthasalsoledtotheextensiveadoptionof newtechniquessuchasvideotapeorstereophonicsoundtomakeeasilyavailableinthehomecultural pleasuresthatpreviouslyrequiredagreatexpenditureoftimeandmoney.Inaddition,closedcircuittelevision hasopenedupnewopportunitiesforbothlocalandevenhomebaseduniversityormuseumsponsoredadult education.Cultureandeducationhavethereforeceasedtobearistocraticprivilegestheyhaveincreasingly becomeanoptionavailabletomoreandmoreAmericansaswellasasometimesostentatioussymbolofnew opulence. Economicprogressandelevatedsocialexpectationshaveprecipitatedaninfluxintocollegesand universitiesoflargenumbersofyoungpeoplefromfamilieswithnopreviousbackgroundofhighereducation. Ofthesome4.3millionfamilysupportedcollegestudentsin1966,63percentcamefromhomesinwhichthe headofthefamilyhadnevercompletedasingleyearincollege.Morestrikingstillisthefactthat30percent,or almostonehalfoftheabove63percent,camefromhomesinwhichtheheadofthefamilyhadnothadeven 17 fouryearsofhighschool. During19631969thenumberofmaleblackswhohadcompletedahighschool educationincreasedfrom36to60percentthenumberofthosewhohadobtainedcollegedegreesalmost 18 doubledinjusttwoyears,from4percentin1963to7.5percentin1965. Asofthelate1960s,83percentof sixteen toseventeenyearoldblackAmericanswerestillinschool,andtheproportiongoingtocollegewas 19 higherthanthatforthesameagebracketinWesternEurope. Totheextentthathighereducationhasbecomethemostimportantmeansofsocialadvancementin * America,theabovefiguresareevidenceofpotentiallysignificantupwardmovement. Thus,asof1969some37 20 percentofallcollegestudentscamefrombluecollar,service,orfarmfamilies. Educationalbackgroundand intellectualscientificachievementareincreasinglybecomingthemeasureofsocialworth.Thisdevelopmentis ofparticularimportancetoracerelations.Neitherthehuckster'sshortcutnortheHoratioAlgerstoryoffers muchincentiveorpromisetomillionsofyoungblacks,butmasseducation,combinedwiththeeconomy's expandedneeds,doesprovideawidechannelforsatisfyingindividualambitionsonasociallysignificantscale. Educationcouldthereforeserveasthepointofdepartureforattainingasociallyegalitarianandpolitically democraticmultiracialsociety.Theattainmentofsuchasocietywouldbeahistoric victory formankind,forthe brutalfactisthatracerelationsaremostvulnerabletotheirrationalforcesofhumanmotivation:thevisual, instinctive,exclusivisticselectionthatoperatesalmostautomaticallyontheracialfront.

TheUncertaintyofProgress
ButitmustimmediatelybeaddedthatbeforeAmericafullybecomessuchasocietyindeed,inorder forittobecomesuchasocietytheunassimilatedlegacyofindustrialAmericaaswellastheunusualproblems inherentintheAmericantransitiontoatechnetronicsocietymustfirstbesurmounted.Theinitiallyreluctantbut increasinglywidespreadsocialrecognitionofthefactthatthepasthasstilltobesettledwithevenwhilethenew
*

Onerelatedandintriguingaspectofthisdevelopmentistheincreasingentranceintothecountry'spoliticaleliteofpreviously nonparticipatingethnicandracialgroups.Jews,Negroes,Italians,and,toalesserextent,PolesandGreeks,havebeenmakinganappearance inthenationalgovernmentonlevelsandonascalepreviouslyrarelyattainedby non"WASPS."Whileprecisestatisticsarenotavailable, thesenew"elites"whoseAmericanismissometimesasintenseasitisnewmayhavehadsomethingtodowiththereappearanceofthe activist,nationalist,dynamicorientationnotedbyDavidRiesman inhis"SomeQuestionsabouttheStudyofAmericanNationalCharacterin theTwentiethCentury," AnnalsoftheAmericanAcademyofPoliticalandSocialScience, March1967,especiallyp.47.

81

isbeingharnessedhascreatedaninflammablesituationthathasalreadytakenitstollandcouldgrowworse. Aneconomicrecessionthwartingarousedhopeswouldhaveespeciallycalamitousconsequencesforthe stabilityoftheAmericansocialorder.Muchclearlydependsontheexpandingeconomy'scapacitytoabsorband ameliorateexistingtensions.Economicgrowthatarelativelystableandhighrateofapproximatelythreeanda halfpercentperannum,allowingforannualvariations,seemstobethe sinequanon forthecontinuedevolution ofAmericansocietytowardasituationinwhichlibertyandequalitywillbuttressbutnotvitiateoneanother. Thisisparticularlytrueofpovertyandracerelations,inwhichevensocialgoodwillwillbepowerlessto accomplishmuchintheeventofasignificanteconomic slowdown.Thefirstvictimsofarecessionwillbethe poorandtheblacks,whoalwaysabsorbadisproportionateamountofthesuffering,owingtoeconomic * malfunction. Unfortunately,itisnotevencertainthattherelativelystrongpaceofeconomicgrowthinthe1960swill sufficetoliquidatethe unfinishedbusinessofAmerica'sindustrialization,bothinabsolutetermsorrelativeto the growthofsocietyatlarge. Indeed,whatamountstothecoexistenceoftworatherseparateAmericanecon omiesthe laggingandevendecayingindustrialeconomy(increasinglyexposedtomoreeffectiveforeign competition,highlyvulnerabletocyclicalswings,andemployingthepoorerandlessskilledworkers)andthe expandingtechnetroniceconomy(basedonaerospaceandotherfrontierindustriesandemployingthebetter trained,bettereducated,andbetterpaidworkers)hasmadetheassimilationandupgradingofthepoorer segmentsofAmericansocietymoredifficult. Thisgapiscomplicatingtheeffortstocreatearacialharmonybasedonbothlibertyandequality.The NegroshouldhavebeenintegratedintoAmericansociety during theAmericanindustrialrevolution. Unfortunately,thatrevolutioncamebeforeAmerica,ifnottheNegro,wasreadyforfullintegration.If theblack Americanhadrepresentedonlyaneconomiclegacyofthepreindustrialage,perhapshecouldhavebeenmore effectivelyintegratedintotheindustrialage.Butracialprejudicekepthimfromacquiringthenecessaryskills. Theproblemiscumulative,andtodaythemoreadvancedAmericanurbanindustrialregionsarefindingit difficulttointegrateblacksbotharacialminorityandAmerica'sonlyfeudallegacypreciselybecausethese regionsaremovingintoanewandmorecomplexphasethatrequiresmoredevelopedsocialskills. Paradoxically,itcanbearguedthattheSouthtoday standsabetterlongrangechanceoffullyintegratingthe blacks:Americanconsciousnessischanging,theblackhasawakened,andtheAmericanSouthisbeginningto 21 move intotheindustrialage.Itmight,ifitmovesrapidlyenough,taketheblackalongwithit. Thelargerquestionstillremains:Willthepaceofdevelopmentberapidenoughtomeetthechallenge posedbythesimultaneousandmutuallyreinforcingprocessessetinactionbytheblackAmerican'sawakening andbyhisdisillusionmentwiththeAmericansystem?Numerouspublicopinionpollsrecordtheblack'sgrowing convictionthathehasnochoicebuttooptoutofthepoliticalsystem,torelyonexclusiveness,evenonviolence, 22 asthebasicmeansofprogress. Thismoodwasabsentfromtheexperienceofwhiteimmigrantgroups,which onthewholeaspiredtoentertheAmericancommunityasrapidlyaspossible.Incontrast,manyblacksseein exclusivenessandinbuildingaseparatecommunitytheonlywaytothefutureafuturethattothemnolonger necessarilyimpliesaneventualmergerwiththelargerAmericansociety. Norisitcertainthattheentranceoflargenumbersofblacksintointegrateduniversitieswillhelpto alleviateracialtensions.Thoughthisdevelopmentisnecessarytopromotefullscaleparticipationoftheblackin theUnitedStates,severalshorttermfactorspointtoanincreaseinracialtensionsasaresultoftheincreased educationalopportunitiesforblacks.Firstofall,itisuncertainthatblackgraduateswillinfactobtainthe positionstheywillfeelentitledto secondly,thisdifficultyislikelytobemagnifiedbythepredispositionof someblackstoinsistonseparate"blackstudies"programs,notsubjecttoprevailingacademicstandards,which willinevitablyproduceingrowingnumberstheAmericanequivalentofthefrustratedandbadlyeducated pseudointelligentsiaoftheglobalghettosfinally,astheAmericanblackgainsselfconfidenceandashissocial positionimproves,hemaytemporarilybelessresponsivetotheargumentthathisprogressdependson cooperationwithwhites,andhissharpenedawarenessofsocialinjusticeislikelytobeexpressedinamore radicalpoliticalposturethatisindifferenttowhitesensitivities. Theproblemofracerelationsgivesaddedurgencytothebroaderquestionoftheplaceofviolencein Americansociety.Whitesocietymaycontinuetoproclaimthat"violencecannotbuild abettersociety,"butthe blackwillcontinuetoseehisinferiorsocialconditionasthebasicreality.Totheextentthatviolenceprecipitates burstsofreformdesignedbythewhitecommunitytoredressinjustices,theargumentthatviolenceisnecessary
*

The3.2percentunemploymentfigureattheendof1968meantthat21.5percentofallblackteenagerswereunemployed(forwhitesthe correspondingfigurewas11.6percent)andthat3.4percentofblackmenwerewithoutjobs(forwhitesthefigurewas1.6percent). Witha4percentgrowthinGNP(inconstantdollars,whichishigherthantheaveragegrowthsince1960),therearelikelytobecloseto17 millioninpoorhouseholdsin1974comparedto26millionin1967.Ofthese,morethan4millionwillbefamiliesheadedbynonaged workingmalescompared to10millionin1967"(DepartmentofHealth,Education,andWelfare,TowardaSocialReport, Washington,D.C., p.47). "In1947thepoorest20percentofthepopulationreceived5percentoftheincome,anditheldthissame5percentsharein1964.. ..The secondlowestfifthgot12percentin1947and12percentin1964.Inshort,40percentoftheAmericanpeoplewereheldtoa17percent shareoftheincomethroughouttheentirepostwarperiod.The5percentatthetopgotaboutthesameproportionasthat40percent" (MichaelHarrington,TowardaDemocraticLeft,NewYork,1968,p.26). NewYorkCitystatisticsindicate,forexample,thatwhitedropoutshavebetteremploymentopportunitiesthanblackhighschoolgraduates (TheNegroAlmanac, NewYork,1967,chartonp.292).

82

toblackprogressbecomesstrongerandstronger.Ontheotherhand,thisrelianceonviolencetendstoblurthe distinction,importanttothefunctioningofanysociety,betweenpoliticalandcriminalviolence(wasEldridge Cleaverapoliticaloracriminalfugitive?),anditpromptsbothlegallyformalizedmassiverepressionsbysociety atlargeandrationalizationsofviolencebythemoreliberalandeducatedsegmentseitherresultdestroysso ciety'scapacityfordiscriminatingbetweenthenecessityfororderandtheimperativeofchange. Asociety'scapacityformakingsuchjudgmentsisboundtobeunderminedbythedegreetowhichit becomespsychologicallyinuredtolivingwithviolenceandtoacceptingviolenceasameansforsolvingits problems.ThatAmerica'ssocialhistory,aswellasitspoliticalhistory,hasbeenviolentisnotdisputed.That * Americahasbeenamoreviolentsocietythanothersisdebatable. Butthe questionofviolencegoesbeyond statisticsorevenracerelationsitinvolvesthebasicpatternofanation'sculture andthewayinwhichasociety solvesitsproblems. Todaytheproblemsofpovertyorofracerelationsdemandadeptpsychologicalsensitivitytonuances andrestraintinbalancingmanycomplexandcompeting individualandgrouprights.Thisisapointwhichmany impatientreformersoverlook.Theassimilationofanyethnicallyorraciallydistinctivegroupintothemajority cultureispossibleonlyinacontextofstableinstitutionsandvaluesexpressedinorderlyprocedures.Itis possibletomaintainmajoritydominationbyviolenceortoreversethepowerrelationsbetweenracesbyviolent revolution,buttocreateharmoniousracerelationsasocietymustbeconditionedtoacceptchangepeacefullyand to resolvesocialissuesnonviolently.fButthis automaticallytendstostrengthentheforcesthatopposechange, whethertheseforcesrepresententrenchedinterestsor,moregenerally,ingrainedsocialorracialattitudes.A socialsettinginwhichalargepartofthepopulationcomestoidentifyviolencewithchangeandtoequateorder withtheabsenceofchangeisasettinginwhichanescalationofconflictbecomesunavoidable.

TheFutilityofPolitics
Theresponsivenessofpoliticalinstitutionstothe needforchangeisofgreatimporttoAmerica'sfuture. SomecitizensseethepresentAmericansystemasincapablenotonlyofpromotingtheneededsocialchangesbut evenofreactingtopressureonbehalfofsuchchanges.Insuchasetting,proceduresandinstitutionsthatintimes ofstabilityarevauntedfortheirdeliberatenessbecomeintimesofmorerapidchangeexamplesofdelay,ineffi ciency,andevenfundamentalinjustice. Thegovernmentasanexpressionofthenationalwillincreasinglytends
*

TheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPreventionofViolence,initsreport"ViolenceinAmerica:HistoricalandComparative Perspectives"(NewYork,1969),states:"Despiteitsfrequency,civilstrifeintheUnitedStateshastakenmuchlessdestructiveformsthanin manynonWesternandsomeWesterncountries....ThenationhasexperiencednointernalwarssincetheCivilWarandalmostnoneofthe chronicrevolutionaryconspiracyandterrorismthatplagueddozensofothernations.... "AlthoughabouttwohundredandtwentyAmericansdiedinviolentcivilstrifeinthe5yearsbeforemid1968,therateof1.1permillion populationwasinfinitesimalcomparedwiththeaverageofallnationsof238deathspermillion,andlessthantheEuropeanaverageof2.4 permillion"(pp.799800). Ontheotherhand,alaterreportbythesamecommissionpointsoutthat"acomparisonofreportedviolentcrimeratesinthiscountrywith thoseinothermodern,stablenations showstheUnitedStatesraperateclearleader.Ourhomiciderateismorethantwicethatofourclosest competitor,Finland,andfrom4to12timeshigherthantheratesinadozenotheradvancedcountries,includingJapan,Canada,Englandand Norway"(ascitedby TheNewYorkTimes,November24,1969). Thoughitmaynotbemoreviolentthanothersocieties,contemporaryAmericaispsychologicallypermeatedbyviolence.Thisisnot onlyandnotevenlargelybecauseofthedramaticassassinationsofthe 1960s.ItisaboveallattributabletoAmericantelevision,almost entirelycontrolledbythreeprofitorientedcorporationsandonlylooselycheckedbythenationalgovernment.In1969theUniversityof PennsylvaniaSchoolofCommunicationsreportedin theresearchstudypreparedfortheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPrevention ofViolencethatintwoweeksofviewingthethreemajornetworksfrom4:00to10:00P.M. ithadcounted790personskilledorinjuredin televisiondramas(notnewsreports),andthatithadfound15actsofviolenceforeveryhouroftelevisionviewing(asreportedin TheNew YorkTimes,July6,1969).Tothisdubiousrecordshouldbeaddedsensationseeking"documentaries"suchasNBC's"exclusiveinterview," prominently advertisedinadvance,withSirhanSirhan,RobertKennedy'sconvictedassassin,filmed(accordingtoNBC'sadvertisements) "thedayafterSirhanwasformallysentencedtodie." Foraperceptivediscussionofthetelevisionmagnates'attitudetowardtheireducationalsocialresponsibilities,seeHarrington,Towarda DemocraticLeft,pp.ig20.tThisisnottodenythatviolencedidplayaconstructivesocialroleatdifferentstagesofhistory.Inoverthrowing tyrannyorindefyingexploitation,violence hasoftenactedashistory'sscalpel.Theexaltationofhistoricalviolenceshouldnot,however,be carriedtoofar.BarringtonMoore,inhis SocialOriginsofDictatorshipandDemocracy (Boston,1966),suggeststhatthephysicalcostof revolutionaryregimesshouldnotbeheldagainstthem,fortheabsenceofarevolutionmighthavebeenevenmorecostly.Hedoesnot, however,examinethepossibilitythatthereformsundertakenbyrevolutionaryregimes,oftenwithmonstrousbrutality,mighthavebeenless physicallycostlyifalternativeschemesofreformsuccessfullyundertakenbyothernationshadbeenfollowed.Indeed,itcanbearguedthat muchoftheviolenceundertakenbyrevolutionaryregimeswasinfactdysfunctionaltothepositivetaskstheyhad setthemselves.Thereal comparison,therefore,shouldbebetweenthephysicalcostsofalternativewaysofchangingsocietyratherthanbetweenthecostofnot changingitandthecostofchangingitbyveryviolentmeans. Historicaljudgmentsaside,it isnoteworthythatmodernmanisstilleducatedintermsthatpromoteaggressivefeelings.IntheWest,films andtelevisionemphasizeviolence,andtheteachingofhistorystresseswars,victories,defeats,andconflictbetween"good"and"bad" nations. Theseaggressiveinstinctsarealsoexpressedbychildren'sgamesaswellasbyadultformsofentertainment.Incommunistcountries ideologysimilarlystimulatesaggressivefeelingsandhostilitytoward"evil"forces,thuscontinuingthemorefundamentaldichotomies introducedbythereligioustradition. Americanjusticeisaparticularlyglaringexample.Itisasantiquatedasitisoftenabsurd.Itappearstohavebenefitedneitherbythelegal reformscarriedoutdecadesagoinEurope,norevenbytheEnglishpatternofrelativelyswiftjustice.Itsextraordinarilycumbersome procedures,dominatedbytheatricalstratagemsandshowmanshipandinvolvinglengthyandcomplexappeals,leadtodelaysandeven occasionallytoresultsthatdefythemostelementaryconceptsofjustice.ThetrialofMartinLutherKing'skiller duringwhichperiodBay's lawyerscompetedinsellinghismemoirswasatravestySirhanSirhan'sprotractedshowinLosAngeleswashardlydictatedbytheneeds ofabstractjusticehighlypaid"exclusives"bythekillersofSharonTatewereadisgrace.Sovietsecrettrialsarecertainlydeplorable,butare

83

tobeseenasunabletodirectandcoordinatenationalchangeeffectively.Itappearsneithertoarticulatenational goalsnortodevelopasenseofnationaldirection.Thisfeelingofuncertaintyaboutnationalpurposeisalso magnifiedbythefadingof theestablishedpoliticalelitethathasguidedthenationsinceWorldWarII.Primarily composedofmencomingfromtheeasternseaboardandconnectedwithlegal,corporate,andhighfinancial circles,thepoliticaleliteprovidedasenseofcontinuity withintheframeworkofapragmaticliberalconsensus onthenatureandcharacterofmodernindustrialsociety.Therelativestabilityofthelate1940sandthe1950s reflectedthatconsensus.Latelythiselitehascomeunderincreasingchallengebothfrom thenewer, geographicallymoredispersedeconomicinterestsassociatedwiththenewscientificdefenseandfrontier industries,andfromthemoreideologicallyinclinedintellectualforces,whicharebecomingmoreinfluential. Thebreakupofthepostwarelitehighlightsthedichotomy betweenthequalitiesnecessarytogain politicalpowerinAmericandemocracyandthosenecessarytoexerciseeffectiveleadershipofthatdemocracy. Thecourtshipofthepressandthemassmediaisanecessaryconcomitantofcourtingthemasses,sincethe massesareinfluencednotonlybydirectappealbutalsothroughtheintermediaryofan"image,"whichisinpart builtupbythemediathemselves.Thedesirabilityofthisimageputsapremiumonadvocatingtheimmediately popularandthefashionableratherthanonformulatingbroaderobjectivesbyfocusingattentiononbasic philosophicalquestionsconcerningthemeaningofamodernsociety.Sincesocialconsensushasbeen fragmentedbythepaceofchangeandsociety'svaluestructurehasitselfbecomehighlytactical,thelarger strategicquestionstendtobeobscured. Tomakemattersworse,theAmericaninstitutionalframeworkhasnotkeptupwiththepaceofsocietal change.Giventhecountry'senormoustransformationthroughindustrialgrowthandcommunicationsmobility, itsfederalarrangementshavebecomeincreasinglydevoidofeconomicorgeographicsubstance.These arrangementsarekeptalivebylocaltraditionalsentimentandvestedinterests,ratherthanbytheiractual functionalutility.Thepriceofthishasprimarilybeenpaidbythenewbigcities,forwhosegrowththe constitutionalstructuremadelittleallowanceandwhichhaveconsequentlybeendeprivedofthemeansofcoping withtheirdilemmas. Thenationalgovernment,particularlybecauseofthetwopartysystem,hasalsofounditdifficultto developtheneededmechanismsforopenlychannelingthenewmajorcompetitiveforcesonthepoliticalscene, anditstilloperatesasifthepolitical"game"revolvedaroundthetworelativelyloosealliancesofinterestgroups thatlargelyreflectedtheindustrialruraldilemmasoftheearlierage.Ingeneral,thatarrangementhadbeen effectiveinexpressing,aswellasmoderating,thepopularwillandinstrikingabalancebetweencontinuityand change.Nonetheless,itisworthnotingthatinpasttimesofstressandsharperchoicesthetwopartysystem occasionallybrokeup,thoughonlytemporarily.It wouldappearthatthebreakupofthetwopartysystemis againunderway,preciselybecausethedilemmasofthecountryhavebecomeintensifiedbytheextraordinary paceofchangeandbythewideningspectrumofoftenincompatiblechoicesitstimulates. Asaresult,theindustrialruralorliberalconservativeframeworknolongeradequatelyencompasses existingcompetitivepoliticalforces:theagrarianconservativeanticommunistandlargelycongressionally basedbastionthenewindustrialmilitaryscientificconglomerates'thatuneasilycollaboratewiththeformeron politicalideologicalgroundsbutareinconflictwithitintermsofeconomicthrustandtheemerging,veryloose, welfarecivilrightsintellectualcoalitionthatsharessomeofthesecond'ssocioeconomicdynamicsbutisinbasic conflictwithboththefirstandthesecondinthematterofpriorities.Thetwolatterforceshaveoperatedlargely outsideofdirectparticipationinthelegislativeprocessofthecountry,andsoreflectthedegreetowhichthe * representativeaspectsofAmericandemocracyhavefailedtokeepupwithsocialchange. SeveralpoliticalsubAmericasthuscoexistuneasily,andthoughAmericaisbeginningtothinkofitself asanentity,eachsubAmericatendstoprojectontothewholeitsownperceptionofAmericanreality.The relationshipbetweenthesesubAmericasisthereforetenseeachtendstoseekitsownpoliticalexpressionrather thantomergeinthelargerwhole.Inthe1968presidentialcontest,RobertKennedypersonifiedthepoliticsof anxiety,passionatelyarticulatingthegrievancesoftheunderprivilegedeventhoughhesharedthefearsand uncertaintiesofestablishedAmericanswhosensedanddesiredmajorchangebutdidnotquiteknowwhatthat 23 changeoughttobe EugeneMcCarthywasthepetulantspokesmanofthepoliticsofnostalgia,lackadaisically promisingtotakedownthefencesaroundtheWhiteHouselawn,respondingtothesuburbanites'desirefora
Americanjudicialcircusesreallyneededtoprotectthedefendantandrenderfairjudgment? Atthesametime,theintermeshingofprivateandpublicinterests,exemplifiedbytheoutsideeconomicinterestsofcongressmenand senators,reinforcesmanyAmericans'inclinationtodismissthepoliticalprocessasdominatedbyinherentlyconservative,socially unresponsive,profitorientedinterests.Forexample,8membersoftheHouseCommerceCommitteehavefinancialinterestsinrailroads, airlines,radiostations,andmovingcompanies,allofwhichcomeundertheirlegislativepurview90membersoftheHouse,including12on theBankingCommittee,haveinterestsinbanks,savingsandloanassociations,orbankholdingcompanies77members,including19onthe JudiciaryCommittee,maintainprivatelawpractices44membershaveinterestsinoilorgascompanies,andsoon.(TheNewYorkTimes, May11,1969). * Theheavyrepresentationofsmalltownlawyersissymptomaticofthiscondition.Incontrast,thefirstNationalAssemblyofFrance'sFifth Republiccontained67professorsandteachers,48medicalmen,45highprofessionalcivilservants,34lawyers,32workers,27businessmen, 25scientistsandengineers,20journalists,andsoon.ItisevidentthatfromarepresentativestandpointtheFrenchAssemblymoreaccurately reflectedthecharacterofarelativelymodernsociety.Thebenefitsofgreaterscientificcompetenceinsociety'srepresentativebodiesare beginningtoberecognizedinBritain:"TheHouseofCommonswouldbenefitenormouslybyhaving,say,50engineerswhocouldensure thatparliamentarydiscussionsweremorecloselygearedtothetechnicalrealitiesoftheday,"AnthonyWedgwoodBenn,Ministerof Technology,wroteinhisweeklymagazine EngineeringNews(quotedbytheAssociatedPress,August21,1965).

84

pastorallifeandforsocialjusticeprovidedthelatterisimplementedatadistancefromthemHubert Humphreypreachedthepoliticsofcompromisebetweenclassesandraces,andhispassionevokedtheclass conflictatmosphereoftheNewDealGeorgeWallaceexpressedthepoliticsofresentment,speakingforthose Americanswhofeltthatmuchofthe socialandracialprogresswasbeingpromotedattheirexpenseby AmericanswhoweremorecomfortablyestablishedRichardNixonpracticedthepoliticsofcaution,andhewon becausesignificantnumbersofAmericansfromtheseveralsubAmericasbecamefearfulthat"their"America wasendangeredandwereuncertainastowhatthenewAmericamightholdinstoreforthem. Thisinclinationtostresspersonalinterestsreflectedtheimpotencefeltbysomeconstituencies concerningtheshapingofnationalpolicy.Manycitizenssensedchangebutfeltthattheyhadlittlecontrolover it.Inatimeofrelativecontinuity,presidentialandcongressionalelectionsservedasanacceptableand personallysatisfyingmethodofexpressingahighlygeneralizedpolitical preference.Inatimeofdiscontinuity 24 andincreasinglyfragmentedconsensus, nationalelectioncampaignsbecamealessadequateformfor expressingthepopularwill.Thepresidentialelection,especiallygiventheimportancetelevisionconferson personallooksandstyle,hasformanybecomeanationalpageantratherthananexerciseofbasicchoicesmeant toinfluencethenation'sdirection.Thesechoicesareinsteadmadeincrementallybyadministrativefiatorin congressionalcommitteessinceboththeseprocessesarelargelyremovedfrompublicview,theyaremore responsivetoinfluencesfromthevariousspecialinterestswithwhichadministratorsorcongressmenareoften incloserelationshipthantheyaretothevoters. Relatedtothissituationistheoftnotedremoteness,complexity,andimpersonalityofbothpublicand privateinstitutions.Astheoldtraditionalaffiliationsoftheagrariansocietycrumbled,theindustrialage 25 produceditsequivalentsthroughunionsandprofessionalsocieties.Butunionsarenolongervitalinstitutions, andthe"atomization"ofmodernlifeaccentuatesthecitizens'feelingsofimpotence.Socialinstitutionsappearto provideneitheranoutletforindividualidealismnorarapidresponsetocollectivedemands.Moreover,thestate orabigprivateorganizationinescapablyschematizessocialdilemmasinordertocopewiththeircomplexities thoughthisschematizationpermitsalargescaleresponse,itfrequentlyconflictswiththeindividuallyfeltdimen sionsofthesameproblemandthereforelimitstheindividual'sfreedomevenasitfailstoperceivethebest solutiontohisproblems.Thus,themorethestatetriestohelp,themoreittendstoreinforcetheindividual's feelingofimpotence. Theresultisparadoxical:thesituationdescribedstimulatesamoreintensepublicinterestinpolitics whileincreasingthesenseofthefutilityofpoliticsitfragmentsnationalconsensuswhilepromptinglouder appealsforasenseofcommonnationaldirectionfinally,itsimultaneouslyconfrontstheindividualwiththe twindangersoffragmentationandofexcessivecontrol.Indeed,nationalpolicyseemstofragmentasnational 26 governmentexpands. Asaresult,manyAmericansfeelthattheirfreedomiscontracting.Thisfeelingseemsto beconnectedwiththeirlossofpurpose,sincefreedomimplieschoiceofaction,andactionrequiresanawareness ofgoals.IfAmerica'spresenttransitiontothetechnetronicagedoesnotresultinpersonallysatisfyingachieve ments,thenextphasecouldbeoneofsullenwithdrawalfromsocialandpoliticalinvolvement,aflightfrom socialandpoliticalresponsibilitythroughinnerretreatandoutwardconservatism. Inthemeantime,thescientificandtechnologicalrevolution,itselfsobasicallycerebralincharacter,still tendstoaffectAmericansocietyinalargelyunplannedfashionthatisdeterminedbydecisionsandimpulses reflectingthevaluesandinterestsoftheearlierAmerica.Intellectualpowerismobilizedto answer"how?"but nottoask"why?"Americaconsequentlyrisksbecoming"acivilizationcommittedtothequestforcontinually improvedmeanstocarelesslyexaminedends."27 Thepoliticalsystemhasstilltodevelopmechanismsand procedurestoraiseand answerthesecondquestion.Mattersthatfundamentallyaffectthenationalwayoflife, suchastheconstructionofasupersonicaircraft,orthatposeanecologicalaswellasahumanthreat,suchas industrialpollutionorradiationfromatomicenergyplants,arehandledbyadecisionmakingprocessthat inhibitstheopportunitiesforanintelligentexpressionofthepopularwill.(AccordingtotheNationalScience Foundation'sseventeenthannualreport,lessthan5percentofthemorethan200,000scientistsandengineers employedbythefederalgovernmentin1967wereconcernedwithsocialorpsychologicaldisciplines.Moreover, accordingtothe1963reportoftheCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,defense,space,andenergyresearchwere absorbingapproximatelytwothirdsofthescientistsworkingonthenation'sscientificandtechnological frontiers.Inaddition,oursocietydevotesrelativelylimitedresourcestoasystematicconcernwithsocial problems,whileitdevotesenormousresourcestoeconomic,technical,andscientificmatters.Table13tellspart ofthestory.)Evenhighereducation,bynotfocusingontheunderlyingquestionsbutbyemphasizingtechniques, runstheriskofbecomingmiseducation:ofcreatinglargenumbersof"educated"peoplewhothinktheyknow 28 theanswers,butwhoinfactdonotevenknowthetrulyimportantquestions. ThethirdAmericanrevolutionhighlightsthesharpcontrastbetweenourtechnicalsuccessandour socialfailure,anditraisesbasicquestionsconcerningthecontrolanddirectionofthethrustoftechnological innovation.Howarechoicesmade?Whyaretheymade?Bywhomaretheymade?Whatvaluesareinvolvedin thesechoices,andhowcantheybecrystallizedsothatacoherentpolicy
TABLE13. ANNUAL BUDGETIN MILLIONSOFDOLLARS Industrial PhysicalHealth 20,210 GeneralMotors Nat'lCancerInst.

186

85

Ford StandardOil(N.J.) GeneralElectric Chrysler MobileOil Texaco U.S.Steel I.B.M.

12,240 12,190

7,180 5,650 5,250 4,430 4,360 4,250

Nat'lHeartAssn. Nat'lInst,of Arthritis Nat'lInst,ofNeurology Nat'lInst,ofAllergy Nat'lInst,ofChildHealth AmericanCancerSociety AmericanHeartAssn. Nat'lTuberculosisAssn.

164
141 119

90 66 59 37
27

SocialandPsychological NationalInst,ofMentalHealth* 31 StanfordResearchInst.* 18 MenningerFoundation 9.5 PlanningResearchCorp.* 8 Inst,forSocialResearch 5.5AmericanInst.forResearchin BehavioralSciences 5 BrookingsInstitution 5 HumanResourcesResearchOffice 4.5 MentalHealthResearchInst. 2 Source:ThomasJeffersonResearchCenter,JuneJuly1969,p.5. *Approximateportionofbudgetallocatedtosocialproblems.

canbeshaped?Thesequestions increasinglybesetallmodernsocieties,butgiventheextensivesocialscopeof contemporaryAmericanscienceandtechnology,thischallengeisespeciallyimportantintheUnitedStates becauseitaffectsandpotentiallythreatensthemostintimateaspectsofAmericanlife. Sinceitappearstruethat"thissocietyhaschosentoemphasizetechnologicalchangeasitschiefmode ofcreativeexpressionandbasisforeconomicgrowth,"29 itfollowsthatthissociety'smostimperativetaskisto defineaconceptualframeworkinwhichtechnologicalchangecanbegivenmeaningfulandhumaneends.Un lessthisisdone,thereistherealdangerthatbyremainingdirectionlessthethirdAmericanrevolution,so pregnantwithpossibilitiesforindividualcreativityandfulfillment,canbecomesociallydestructive.

2.TheNewLeftReaction
Arevolutionnotonlybreedsitsownchildrenitrepelsthem.Itisunderstandablethatasocietywhichputsa premiumonchange,whichmakesknowledgethebasicvehicleofinnovation,whichvastlyexpandsthe institutionsofadvancedlearning,whichforthefirsttimeinhistorycreatesalargeclassofpeoplefree throughouttheirlateadolescenceandearlymaturityofthelimitationsinherentintheburdenofselfsupport, whichendowsintellectualactivitywithahighdegreeofsocialprestigebutnodirectpoliticalpower,should breedrebelswhoaretheproductsoftheveryrevolutionthattormentsandrepelsthem.Thesupremeironyof thatlooseandvolatilesociopoliticalphenomenonofcontemporarymiddleclassAmericanamedtheNewLeft isthatitisitselfthecreationofthetechnetronicrevolutionaswellasareactionagainstit.

InfantileIdeology
TheNewLeft,acomplexandelusiveentitymadeupofaratherfluidcombinationofindividualsympathizers (especiallyfromamongtheNewYorkCityliteraryestablishmentandsomeprofessorialcircles)andascattering ofneworganizations,ofwhichStudentsforaDemocraticSociety(SDS)hasbecomethebestknown,isthe politicalideologicalexpressionofamoreextensiverestlessnessamongAmericanmiddleclassuniversityyouth. Asofthelate1960s,membershipinthemoremilitantorganizationswasrelativelylimited,butinmomentsof stress(suchasconfrontationswiththeauthorities)theseorganizationswere quitesuccessfulinmobilizing broadersupport.Moreover,atdifferenttimesandinresponsetodifferentissues,theNewLeftwasabletodraw onthedeeprootedtraditionsofAmericanpopulism,Quakerpacifism,andthepreWorldWarIIlargely immigrantimportedsocialismandcommunism.Thetensionbetweengenerationsaswellasawidespreadthough passivealienationalsopromptedexpressionsofsolidaritywhichoccasionallycreatedtheimpressionofyouth's * massiveidentificationwiththegoals ofthemoremilitantNewLeft. TheouterboundariesoftheNewLeftare,therefore,imprecise.Atonetimeoranotheressentially reformistmembersofthepoliticalestablishment,suchas RobertKennedyandEugeneMcCarthy,wereableto siphonoffagreatdealofthevolatileyouthfulsupportthatotherwisewasattractedbythemoreextreme tendenciesoftheNewLeft.TheNewLeftitself,however,tendedtobemoremilitantinitsrhetoric,more sectarianinitsorganization,moreintellectuallyandgenerationallyexclusivethanthebroadercoalition
*

Itshould,however,benotedthatthenumberofstudents participatinginthemoreovertmanifestationsofmilitancyandstrifewasrelatively limited.IntheperiodOctober1967May1969,onefifthoftheeruptionstookplaceonsixmajorcampuses:Berkeley,SanFranciscoState, Columbia,Harvard,Universityof Wisconsin,andCornell.Ofthenation's2374colleges,therewereoutbreaksononly211campuses,andin atotalof474suchconfrontationswithauthority6158arrestsweremade(accordingtodatacompiledfortheUnitedStatesSenateand reportedin TheWashingtonPost, July2,1969).DuespayingmembersoftheSDSwereestimatedatabout6000thosevaguelysympathetic tosomeNewLeftappeals,atabout700,000thetotalnumberofstudents,about7million (Fortune, specialissueonyouth,January1969). ThenumberofSDSactivistswasestimatedinearly1969asrangingbetween70,000and100,000 (Guardian, January11,1969).

86

endeavoringtoforgethe"newpolitics"inAmerica.Thekeydifference,however,wastheNewLeft's militancyamilitancyderivedfromthebeliefthatreformswillnolongersuffice. Ithasoftenbeensaidthattherathersporadicidentificationofbroadsegmentsofyouthwiththemilitant NewLeftreflectedthemoreintenseidealismandsocialconsciousnessofthecurrentcollegegeneration, impatientwiththecrassmaterialismofitssocietyanddistressedbythepoliticalsystem'sdelayinmoving against socialinjustice.Thisisdoubtlessso.Theyounghavebeenactiveinthestruggleforracialequalitythey respondedinitiallywithenthusiasmtothecallofglobalserviceintheranksofthePeaceCorpstheyhave flockedintotheranksofthemanydomesticeffortstomountastruggleagainsturbanpovertyandignorance.Itis equallytruethattheestablishedsystemdidnotfullytapthatidealism.Theidealismoftheyoungrequireda senseofdeliberatenationaleffortinordertogiveitfulfillment,anditwasnottotheyoungalonethatthiseffort seemedtobelacking.Cumulatively,theresultingfrustrationscreatedanintensealienation,firstfromthe politicalsystemandthenfromthesocioeconomicsystemasawhole.Bothweredeniedmorallegitimacy,and thecombinationoffrustratedidealismandhistoricaluncertaintycreatedpropitiouscircumstancesforappeals basedonpassionandadesireforasimpledichotomicformula. Majorcatalystsforyouthfuldisillusionmentwithliberaldemocracy'sdeterminationandcapacityto copewitheitheritsoldoritsnewproblemswereprovidedbytheVietnamwarandthewhitemajority's indifferencetotheblackman'squestforequality.Bothreinforcedtheargumentthattheexistingsystemwas preoccupiedwithselfpreservationandnotwithchange,andthatfederalfundswerereadilyavailableforremote causesbutnotforcuringAmerica's immediateills.Bothalsoprovidedtheyoungwithconvenient rationalizationsforfailingtocometogripswiththeintellectualcomplexityofourtimeandforturningtheir backsonthedifficultandinescapablyslowtaskofsocialrenewal. Thissamekind ofselfservingintellectualrationalizationforthemoreimmediatelyconvenientand emotionallygratifyingpostureofcompletenegationalsoplaysapartinthebroaderstudentmalaise,whichthe moremilitantNewLefthasbeenexploiting.Explanatorytheoriesofstudentmilitancyhavetypicallyplaced majoremphasisonthepsychologicaldimensionofthecrisisofvaluesincontemporaryAmerica,onthestifling ofthegenuineidealismoftheactivists.Forexample,BobertLieberthascogentlyarguedthat"itisnecessaryto understandthelivesofthe participants[instudentmilitancy]ina'psychohistorical'context....Theresultisa senseofthetenuousnessoflifewhichismanifestedmoreprofoundlyinitsunconsciousaspects.More 30 specifically,ithasprovidedthemwithasenseofurgencytoeffectchangesothatlifecangoon." Similarly, KennethKenistonhasstressedthatinrejectingtheexistingsociety,thestudentisexpressing"arevulsionagainst thenotionofquantity,particularly economicquantityandmaterialism,andaturntowardsconceptsofquality... .Anothergoalofthenewrevolutioninvolvesarevoltagainstuniformity,equalization,standardizationandho 31 mogenization...." Studentparticipantshavealsotendedto stressthepsychologicaldimension.MarkGerzon'sTheWhole WorldIsWatching, asympatheticaccountbyayoungHarvardundergraduate,putprimarystressonthe psychologicalaspect,notingthatatbothHarvardandBerkeley"thepsychiatricunitsatthehealthservicesofthe twouniversities,normallyquitebusy,foundthatthenumberofstudentscominginforpsychiatrichelpdeclined dramaticallyduringtheperiodofconcertedpoliticalaction.Thestudents,itmustbeconcluded,foundan externaloutletfortheirintenseconcernandsowerelesscagedintheirownminds."32 Thisdidnotmeanthat theirpersonalproblemsweresolvedtheywere,however,sublimatedinsomethingbeyondthestudent.Gerzon alsociteddatashowingthatbothmilitancyanddrugtakingweremoreprevalentamongstudentsinthe"soft" sciences,whoweremorepreoccupiedwiththe"habitofselfanalysis"andlesspreparedforactiveparticipation 33 inthemorescientificallyorientedsociety. Thereisdoubtlessmuchmeritinthispsychologicalinterpretationofstudentmilitancy.Theexisting systemandespeciallytheemergingsystemputsoextensiveapremiumonindividualcompetitionthatanxietyis generatedearlyinlife.Partoftherebellionagainstauthorityineducationcanbeattributedtotheunderstandable desireoftheyoungtogetawayfromacompetitivestructureinwhichsuccessorfailure,atsoearlyanage,has suchpotentially lastingconsequences.Atthesametime,theweakeningofthefamilystructurecreatespressures forcompensatorysourcesofpsychologicalreassurance,andpeergroupsbecomeimportantinsettingpatternsof * behaviorandproclaimedbeliefs. Inaddition,sohighlyrationalizedasocietyastheAmericantendstobeadangerouslyboringsociety. Becauseofthis,sheerboredomasthesourceofalienationthatoftcitedcatchallexplanationshouldnotbe underestimatedasanimportantcauseofrestlessness.Inoursociety"theexcitementoftheunexpected,the
*

AccordingtothePresident'sCommissiononLawEnforcementandtheAdministrationofJustice(1967):"InAmericainthe1960's,to perhapsagreaterextentthaninanyotherplaceortime,adolescentsliveinadistinctsocietyoftheirown.Itisnotaneasysocietyto understand,todescribe,or,forthatmatter,tolivein.Insomewaysitisanintenselymaterialisticsocietyitsmembers,perhapsin unconsciousimitationoftheirelders,arepreoccupiedwithphysicalobjectslikeclothesandcarsandindeedhavebeenencouragedinthis preoccupationbymanufacturersandmerchantswhohavediscoveredhowprofitabletheadolescentmarketis.Insomewaysitisanintensely sensualsocietyitsmembersarepreoccupiedwiththesensationstheycanobtainfromsurfingordragracingormusicordrugs.Insome ways,itisanintenselymoralisticsocietyitsmembersarepreoccupied withindependenceandhonestyandequalityandcourage.Onthe wholeitisarebellious,oppositionalsociety,dedicatedtothepropositionthatthegrownupworldisasham.Atthesametime,itisa conformingsocietybeinginexperienced,unsureofthemselvesand,infact,relativelypowerlessasindividuals,adolescentstoafargreater extentthantheireldersconformtocommonstandardsofdressandhairstyleandspeech,andactjointlyingroupsorgangs"(The ChallengeofCrimeinaFreeSociety, NewYork,1968,p.176).

87

invigoratingstateofmindproducedbyshiftsinpleasure,pain,tranquilityandanxietyarelargelymissing. Underlyingtherewardsofbeingacoginthewheelcanbeasenseofboredomandthinnessofself."34 Toescape fromitintoarevolutionary"happening"canbefreedom,andendlessdiscussionsexaltingone'spersonalrefusal toparticipateinthe"automatedsociety,"the"gadgeteconomy,"and"corruptingaffluence"becomeaformof grouptherapy. Thismoodpromptsasearchfornewsourcesoffeelingandofauthority,whichthe simultaneously impersonalandpermissiveexistinginstitutionsfailtoprovide.Itcreatesaresponsivenessto highlygeneralized mobilizationagainstthe statusquo.Paradoxically,thevaguerandmoreambitiousthedemands,thecloserand * morerapidlynarrowingthegapbetweentherealityandhope. Finally,thereappearstobeanelementofuneasyguiltandselfgratificationinthemotivationofsome ofthealienatedyoungpeople,andthisfactorshouldnotbeignored.Itiscertainlyeasiertocondemnthesocial systemasawholethantoparticipateinVISTAprogramsorthePeaceCorps.Condemningthelatterasan extensionofimperialismbecomesaselfservingexplanation:themilitants'"deepdissatisfactionwiththemselves andtheirinnerconfusionisprojectedagainsttheinstitutionsoftheuniversityfirst,andagainstallinstitutionsof societysecondarily,whichareblamedfortheirowninnerweakness."35 Thisconsiderationisespecially importantinviewoftheeconomicallysecure,middleclasscharacterofmanyoftheyouthfulmilitants.Indeed, theirselfindulgentlifestylesomewhatbeliestheirprofessedantimaterialism,especiallyastheirmaterial existencetendstodependontherelativelygeneroussupportprovidedeitherbytheirparentsorbytheircolleges. ThereareaccordinglysomeanalogiesbetweentherestlessAmericanmiddleclassstudentandtheLatin Americanstudentrebels,whoaregenerallydrawnfromtheupperclassesandsimilarlyquitecertainthat,given thesocialstructureoftheirsocieties,theycancountonarelativelysuccessfulandmateriallyrewardinglife, whatevertheoutcomeoftheirstudies. Theoutlookofalienatedbutidealisticyoungpeople,incontrasttothatoftheactivistpoliticalideology ofthe numericallymuchsmallerNewLeft,canperhapsbecharacterizedasideologicalinfantilism:relyingon psychologyastheirintellectualsource,theyusethecurrentpoliticalslogansoftheadultworld(freedom, equality,andsoon)butactasiftheworldwereagivenconstant.Forexample,inGerzon'sbookthereisno discussionofhowracialinjusticecanbeeliminated,howtheeconomyshouldcreatetheneededwealth,orwho shouldmaketheplanesfly,thehospitalsoperate,thesocialsystemwork.The bookdoes,however,containthe usualemotionalelementsofanideologicalsystem:theenemiesareadultsandtechnology,andtheself righteousnessoftheidealisticyoungisrepeatedlystressed.Theresultingdoctrineisselfserving,sincethe tedioustaskofmakingsocietyfunctionisabandonedtoothers,andthefutureisleftvague.

RevolutionariesinSearchofRevolution
TheextremeNewLeftrepresentsthephenomenonofmiddleclassrebellionagainstmiddleclasssociety.Itis newinthesensethatinexploitingthepsychologicalunrestofsomeofthecollegegenerationitdrawsmuchof itssupportfromasocialgroupwhichisitselfnotyetengagedinproducingsocialwealthandthereforecannotbe representedasbeingexploitedonthewhole,thatgroupenjoyssocialandmaterialsecurity,butitis psychologicallyinsecure,frustrated,bored,andguiltridden.Thisalsoappearstobethecasewithsomeolder supportersoftheNewLeft,particularly thosefromtheintellectualcommunity,whoserecentlyacquiredsocial andmaterialprestigeisintenselythreatenedbyasenseofpoliticalimpotenceandincreasingfearofhistorical obsolescence. ThedifficultyencounteredbythemilitantNewLeftinreachingthe"masses"isrelatedtothecurrent situationintheUnitedStates.Duringthe1930s,radicalmovementshadarealbasisfortheirhopetoradicalize theAmericanlaboringmasses,whoweresufferingfromthedeprivationsoftheGreatDepressionandonlythen beginningtodeveloptheirownorganizationalconsciousness.Therewas,ineffect,atleastthepotentialfora historicalsymbiosisbetweenradicalideologyandthefrustratedandimpoverishedmasses. TodaythesituationisentirelydifferentforverymanyAmericans,thoughnotforall:ashasalready beennoted,thechildrenofAmericanswithoutanyhighereducation(thebluecollarworkersofthestill industrial,secondAmerica)areflockingintocolleges,andcontemporarysocietythroughitsapparentopenness
*

Involvedherewas"thegeneralAmericantendency,perhapsthehumantendency,toassumethatifthingsarepresentlybad,theywereonce better,ratherthanrealizingthattheyarelikelytobe considered badpreciselybecausetheyaregettingbetter"(ChristopherJencksandDavid Riesman,"TheRoleofStudentSubcultures,"TheRecord, TeachersCollege,ColumbiaUniversity,October1967,p.1[italicsinoriginal]). Thepsychologicalinterpretationfitswellsomeofthepoints madebyKonradLorenz:"Duringandshortlyafterpubertyhumanbeingshave anindubitabletendencytoloosentheirallegiancetoalltraditionalritesandsocialnormsoftheirculture,allowingconceptualthoughttocast doubtontheirvalueandtolookaroundfornewandperhapsmoreworthyideals.Thereprobablyis,atthattimeoflife,adefinitesensitive periodforanewobjectfixation,muchasinthecaseoftheobjectfixationfoundinanimalsandcalledimprinting.Ifatthatcrucialtimeof life oldidealsprovefallaciousundercriticalscrutinyandnewonesfailtoappear,theresultiscompleteaimlessness,theutterboredomwhich characterizestheyoungdelinquent.If,ontheotherhand,thecleverdemagogue,wellversedinthedangerousartofproducingsupranormal stimulussituations,getsholdofyoungpeopleatthesusceptibleage,hefindsiteasytoguidetheirobjectfixationinadirectionsubservient tohispoliticalaims.Atthepostpubertalagesomehumanbeingsseemtobedrivenbyanoverpoweringurgetoespouseacauseandfailingto findaworthyonemaybecomefixatedonastonishinglyinferiorsubstitutes"(OnAggression, NewYork,1966,p.258). Butonlyapotential.AsPaulBuhle,theeditorof RadicalAmerica,notedinthe radicalweekly Guardian (June21,1969):"...themost notablecharacteristicofAmericansociety,incontrasttothatofEurope,hasbeentheabsenceofastable,classconsciousproletarian movement."

88

reinforcestherelativefeelingofwellbeingcreatedbyitsmaterialadvances.ThatsecondAmericaincreasingly seesitswaycleartothelongrangeopportunitiesheldoutbythenewscientifictechnologicalsociety.Itis simplynotconvincedbytheNewLeft'sargumentthat"moreopportunityplusmoredemocracyequalsless freedom."36 TheNewLeftholdslittlepromiseforthesecondAmerica,whosevariousanxietiestendratherto expressthemselvesinapoliticallyconservativeandevenantiintellectualposture. ThisleavesforNewLeftmilitants,stillinsearchofmasssupport,onlythefirstAmerica,thepre industrialandtheindustriallymoribundAmerica.Butheretheproblemiscomplicatedbythefactthatmuchof thatAmericaisblackandthatAmericanblacksareeitherinclinedtotakeadvantageofgraduallyenlarging economicopportunitiesortoseektheiridentitythroughmilitantracialexclusiveness.Ineithercase,theNew Lefttendstoappeartomanyofthemasaquarrelsome,notoverlyseriouswhitemiddleclassdiversion,perhaps ofmarginalnuisancevalueinshakingsomewhiteestablishmentinstitutionsandinstirringsomewhite * consciences,butgenerallylackingconsistency,continuity,anddefinedpoliticaldirection. TheNewLeftmighthavebecomeamoreseriousandthereforemoreconstructivepoliticalforcein theUnitedStatestodayifitsprophetshadbeenintellectuallyabletomovebeyondeithertheirdatedEuropean radicalismortheir newerescapistantirationalism. Forexample,modernsocietyposesespecially complex problemsrelatingtoequality,anissueofmajorconcerntotheNewLeftbutthoseproblemscannotberesolved 37 byinvokingnineteenthcenturycriticismsofcapitalism. Infailingtoassimilateintellectuallythenoveltyofthe currentAmericantransition,theNewLefthasmadeitselfanessentiallynegativeandobsolescentforce.Indeed, theNewLeft'scombinationofMarxistrhetoricandexaltationofpassionappearstohavebeendesignedtoshock ratherthantochangesociety.Thishascreatedasituationdeploredbyevenradicalcriticsof thecontemporary UnitedStates. Inaddition,theNewLeft'sexuberantrhetoric,coupledwiththeideologicalimmaturityofthe youngmilitantsandthehistoricalanachronismofitsprophets,hasresultedinaprogrammaticpostureand ideologicaldebatesthatoccasionallyvergeonthehilarious. Cumulatively,theNewLefthaslooselylinkedthe
*

TheassessmentoftheSDSbyDavidHilliard,chiefofstaffoftheBlackPantherparty,isrevealinginthisconnection:"Wedon'tseeSDS asbeingsorevolutionary.WeseeSDSasjustbeinganotherpacificationfrontthat'sgivencreditbythefascistestablishmentinorderto causedisfusion [sic]in hopesthatthiswouldweakenthesupportfortheBlackPantherparty.... "...we'llbeatthoselittlesissies,thoselittleschoolboys'assiftheydon'ttrytostraightenuptheirpolitics.Sowewanttomakethatknownto SDSandthefirstmotherfuckerthatgetsoutoforderhadbetterstandinlineforsomekindofdisciplinaryactionsfromtheBlackPanther party"(interviewin BerkeleyBarb,August4,1969,ascitedby Guardian,August16,1969). TheintellectualrootsofbothMarcuseandChomskyaregroundedinnineteenthcenturyEuropeanradicaldogmatism(onChomskyand communism,seetheparticularlyperceptivecommentsbySeymourMartinLipset,"TheLeft,theJewsandIsrael,"Encounter, December 1969,p.34). Inthisregard,commentsbyWalterLaqueurareparticularlypertinenttoMarcuse'sponderousjustificationsforhispreferredbrandof dictatorshipandtoChomsky'spoliticalbanalities:"TheAmericanyouthmovement,withitsimmenseidealisticpotential,hasgonebadly, perhapsirrevocably,offtherails.Forthis,agreatresponsibilityfallsontheshouldersoftheguruswhohaveprovidedtheideological justificationforthemovementinitspresentphasethoseintellectuals,theirownbrightdreamshavingfaded,whonowstraintorecapture theirideologicalvirginity....ThedoctorsoftheAmericanyouthmovementareinfactpartofitsdisease.Theyhavehelpedtogeneratea greatdealofpassion,butasidefromthemostbanalpopulismtheyhavefailedtoproduceasinglenewidea"("ReflectionsonYouthMove ments," Commentary, June1969,p.40). This"banalpopulism"isexpressedinthecaseofsomewriters(suchasA.Mendel,inhistrivial"RobotsandRebels,"TheNewRepublic, January11,1969)byanintenselyManichaeanescapismandbyattempts(forexample,inthemoreintellectuallyseriouseffortbyTheodore Roszak, TheMakingofaCounterCulture, NewYork,1969)tolegitimizetheantirationalpostureofsomeoftheyoungasanewand enduringculture.Theprevailingpassionofthe"gurus"isrevealedbythesympatheticcommentsonRoszak'sbookbyphilosophyprofessor RobertWolff.AfternotingthatRoszakarguesthat"modernindustrialsocietyingeneral,andAmericansocietyinparticular,isugly, repressive,destructive,andsubversiveofmuchthatistrulyhuman,"Wolffgoesontosaythattheaboveproposition"...Itakeit,isnow acknowledgedtobetruebyvirtuallyeverysensiblemanandwoman.AnyonewhostillimaginesthattheUnitedStatesisthelandof opportunityandthebastionofdemocracyisacandidateeitherforamentalhospitalorforRichardNixon'sCabinet"(TheNewYorkTimes BookReview,September 7, 1969,p.3). The Guardian, forexample,condemnedtheSDSforits"intoxicationwithsectarianism,dogmatism,obscurerhetoricandempty sloganeeringwhichtendstopermeatetheupperreachesofitsleadership.Suchpracticecanonlyfurtherisolatetheleadershipfroma membershipwhichhasneverenjoyedaserious,nationaleducationalprogramdesignedtoeliminategapsinpoliticalconsciousnessthatexist onthechapterlevel....Wequestiontendenciesleadingtotheapplicationbyroteofimportantandintricateconceptssuchasthedictatorship oftheproletariatandvanguardparty,withoutregardforthepresentnatureofU.S.monopolycapitalismortoadjustmentswhichwouldhave tobemadeintheseformulationstobeapplicabletotheworld'smostindustriallyadvancednation"(Guardian, July5,1969, p.12). Forexample,attheSDSNationalConventionin1969thefollowingdialoguetookplace:"Thenextspeaker,ChakaWalls,ministerof informationoftheIllinoisBlackPantherparty...thenbegantoexplaintheroleofwomenintherevolution.'Webelieveinthefreedomof love,inpussypower,'hesaid.Ashockwavestunnedthearena,andPLrespondedwithchantsof'Fightmalechauvinism.''We'vegotsome puritansinthecrowd,'respondedWalls.'SupermanwasapunkbecausehenevertriedtofuckLoisLane.' "'Fightmalechauvinism,'PLWSAandmanyothersbegantochant.AngerwassointensethatWallssteppeddownandleftthepodium toJewelCook,anotherPantherspokesman.Cook,notunderstandingwhatwaswrongwith'pussypower,' quicklymademattersworse.... Cooksaid:'He[Walls]wasonlytryingtosaythatyousistershaveastrategicpositionfortherevolution...prone'"(Guardian, June28, 1969).PLWSA:ProgressiveLaborWorkerStudentAlliance. Similarly,theBerkeleyLiberationCommittee'srevolutionary program,designedtoseta"revolutionaryexamplethroughouttheworld," containedthefollowingthirteenpoints(OaklandTribune, June5,1969): "1WewillmakeTelegraphAvenueandtheSouthCampusastrategicfreeterritoryforrevolution. 2Wewillcreateourrevolutionarycultureeverywhere. 3Wewillturntheschoolsintotraininggroundsforliberation. 4Wewilldestroytheuniversityunlessitservesthepeople. 5Wewillstruggleforthefullliberationofwomenasanecessarypartoftherevolutionaryprocess. 6Wewilltakecommunalresponsibilityforbasichumanneeds.

89

obsolescents,theabstainers,andtheexcludedofthetechnetronicage,butithasofferedlittle prospectofa realisticresponsetothisage'sdilemmas.Itisthusmoreinterestingasasymptomofsocialchangethanforits programmaticmessage.Itisanescapistphenomenonratherthanadeterminedrevolutionarymovementit * proclaimsitsdesireto changesocietybutbyandlargeoffersonlyarefugefromsociety. Moreconcernedwith selfgratificationthanwiththesocialconsequencesofitsacts,theNewLeftcanaffordtoengageinthewildest verbalabuse,withoutanyregardforthefactthatitalienateseventhosewhoarepotentialsupporters.Itsconcern istocreateasenseofpersonalinvolvementforitsadherentsandtoreleasetheirpassionsitprovidesa psychologicalsafetyvalveforitsyouthfulmilitantsandasenseofvicariousfulfillmentforitsmorepassive, affluent,and olderadmirers. DespiteitsincreasinglyMarxistLeninistrhetoric,theNewLeftismore 38 reminiscentofFourierincontent andofDadaisminstyleandquitesymptomaticallyso,sincebothFourier andDadaism werethemselvesreactionstoanewage.

TheHistoricFunctionoftheMilitantLeft
Onbalance,themilitantNewLeftappearstobelargelyatransientphenomenon,asymptomofthe tensionsinherentintheinteractionoftheseveralAmericascoexistingina timeofgeneralAmericantransition. Inallprobability,thistransitionwillcontinuetosparkadditionalviolence,andthebroaderfrustrationsbesetting someyoungpeoplemaypromptamoreprotractedalienationfromtheexistingsystem.Thedeclineinthe attractivenessofbusinessorgovernmentcareersmaydenythesystemameasureofsocialtalent,butthis alienationofsomemiddleclassyouth(especiallyfromthebetteruniversities),thesourcefromwhichAmerica's eliteistraditionallydrawn,maywellactasasocialequalizerbyopeningupcareeropportunitiesforfirst generation,postbluecollarurbanyouthwhohaveinrecentyearsgainedgreateraccesstoadvancededucation. ThelongrunhistoricfunctionofthemilitantNewLeftdependslargelyonthecircumstancesinwhich itwilleventuallyeitherfadeorbesuppressed.Thoughitselfideologicallybarrenandpoliticallyfutile,itmight serveasanadditionalspurtosocialchange,acceleratingsomereforms.Ifitdoes,eventhoughtheNewLeft itselfdisappears,itsfunctioninthethirdAmericanrevolutionwillhavebeenpositiveifnot,itwillhavebeena catalystforamorereactionarysocialresponsetothenewdilemmas. TheanarchisticelementintheNewLefthasoftenbeennoted.Lessattentionhasbeenpaidtoits totalitarianpredisposition.YetbothelementsareinfluentialintheNewLeft'sbehaviorandmood.Despitethe democraticrhetoricandproclaimedconcernwithequality,thedemandsoftheNewLeftintheperceptive wordsofasympatheticobserverhavebeen"fundamentallyelitistandaristocratic,andshouldbefranklyfaced 39 assuch." Itsmembership,intermsofbothsocialcompositionandpsychologicalmakeup,isremarkably analogoustothatofEuropeangroupswhich,inresponsetooverwhelmingcomplexityandtimesofstress, gravitatedtowardtotalitarianmovements.InEuropesuchgroupswererecruitedfromamongmarginalmembers ofthemiddleclass,theunaffiliatedintellectuals,newandrecentlyuprootedproletarians,andsomeofthemore
7Wewillprotectandexpandourdrugculture. 8Wewillbreakthepowerofthelandlordsandprovidebeautifulhousingforeveryone. 9Wewilltaxthecorporations,nottheworkingpeople. 10Wewilldefendourselvesagainstlawandorder. 11WewillcreateasoulfulsocialisminBerkeley. 12Wewillcreateapeople'sgovernment. 13Wewillunitewithothermovementsthroughouttheworldtodestroythisracistcapitalistimperialistsystem." * KennethKeniston,thoughsuggestingthatyouthreallyisshapingthefuture,hascharacteristicallynotindicatedhowitisshapingit,and thusappearstotaketheirrhetoricforreality.(Seehisarticle"YouhavetoGrowUpinScarsdale toKnowHowBadThingsBeallyAre,"The NewYorkTimesMagazine, April27,1969.)ThesameislargelytrueofRoszak. Keniston,moreover,seemstobeexcessivelyinfluencedbyprevailingmoods.Thusin1961hewrotethat"thedriftofAmericanyouth, I haveargued,isawayfrompublicinvolvementsandsocialresponsibilitiesandtowardaworldofprivateandpersonalsatisfactions....They willassureahighlystablepoliticalandsocialorder,forfewofthemwillbeenoughcommittedtopoliticstoconsiderrevolution,subversion, orevenradicalchange..."("SocialChangeandYouthinAmerica,"in TheChallengeofYouth, EricH.Erikson,ed.,NewYork,1961,p. 215). Forsomethesexualrevolutionalsobecameapartialsubstituteforpoliticalaction.Withpoliticalinstitutionstoodifficulttotackle,social conventionsandtheuniversitiesbecameconvenienttargetsguaranteedtogainthedesiredmassmediacoverage.Asoneactressexplained thepoliticalsignificanceofnudisminastatementto TheNewYorkTimes: "Iconsidered(andstilldo)thenakedhumanbodytheheightofbeauty,innocenceandtruth.Iwishedtoopposemynakednesstotheintimate realismofVietnam,initselfonlysymptomaticofthecorruptionsandhypocrisiesofourtime.ThenudebodyonstagewastheTruth Vietnam,theLie. "Vietnam,Chicago,andBerkeleymademerealizethatmybodycouldnotbemyown'property'anylonger,andthattrustandvulnerability wereouronlysalvation.Iwishedtosaythat,inreachingthenaturalendoftheiremancipation,womenofmygenerationcannolonger considerthemselvesas'property.'" Aresponsebyablackactress,askedtocommentonthesamesubject,wasmuchmoretothepoint: "Thispreoccupationwithnudityundertheguiseof'sexualliberation'isawhitehangup.Toomanywhite'artists'areconstantlymakinga pretenseofcomingupwithnewforms,newideas,andexperiments.Thisisduetothefactthattheyarebankruptwhenitcomestothe tormentingbusinessofartisticcreationoutofthehumanconditionasitis.Thistaskismuchmoredifficulttoconfront. "Anyendeavorwhichemploystheblatantandaggressivedisplayofbodilynakednessintheglareofpublicvoyeurism,allunderthelabelof artisticmerit,is notonestepabovethosegirliemagazinestoresandmoviehouseson42ndStreet.Itiswhatithasalwaysbeen,pornography forthrillseekingconsumers.Fortheactor,thisisnothingshortofdebilitatingandexhaustingtohisartisticindividuality. "Andasforliberation,sexualorotherwise,Iasablackpersonamconcernedwithbutonlyoneliberation,andthatisthetotalliberationofall blackpeople.Thisisa realitywhichisquite naked" (SallyKirklandandJudyAnnElder,respectively,asquotedin TheNewYorkTimes, June22,1969).

90

40 isolatedtradeunionists. InAmerica,giventhenewforcesshapingitssociety,membershavetoagreaterextent beendrawnfromamongunaffiliatedintellectuals,studentswhoineffectformanew classandsome membersofthemiddleclass,allofwhom,unliketheirEuropeancounterparts,arerespondinglesstoeconomic andmoretopsychologicalanxieties.Theseelementsareunitedbytheirproclivityfortotalsolutionsandtheir boredomorimpatiencewithincrementalchange. * ThestrongtotalitariantendenciesoftheNewLeftareevidentfrom itsconductandprescriptions. Yetit moreaccuratelywarrantstheterm"neototalitarian,"becauseithaslargelyfailedtoforgesufficientunityto emergeasarelativelydisciplined,organizedtotalitarianmovement.Itstotalitarianmoodandaspirationshave notyetbeenmatchedbytotalitarianorganization,eventhoughthebitterinternalfactionalconflictsandmutual expulsionsarestronglyreminiscentofearlierdogmaticmovements. Moreover,thesharpedgeoftheNewLeft'sintellectualandsometimesevenphysicalattackshas beenaimedatthoseAmericaninstitutionswhosenormaloperationreliesmostonreasonandnonviolence.The university,apeculiarlydefenselessandvulnerablesocialinstitutionandinAmericatheprincipalhavenfor liberalthoughthasbeenaprimarytargetbecauseitoffersthegreatestchanceforsuccesswiththeleastamount ofrisk.Moregenerally,leadingNewLeftspokesmenhavebeencontemptuousoffreespeech,democratic procedures,andmajorityrule.Theyhaveleftlittleroomfordoubtastohowtheywouldhandletheircriticsifthe NewLeftwereevertogainpower. Thoughtheyseeminglyconflict, theanarchisticandthetotalitarianstrandsoftheNewLefthavebeen mutuallyreinforcing.Theanarchisticcomponentisintunewiththeuncertaintiesconnectedwiththerapidand bafflingpaceofchangethetotalitariancomponent,derivedfromtheManichaeansenseofabsoluteself righteousness,providesasecurepointofdepartureforconfrontingthatchange.Itshouldberemembered, moreover,thattotalitarianismrarelyproclaimsitselfinadvanceitemergesthroughpractice.SincetheFrench Revolution,theoverallpoliticalstyleoftheWesternworldhascalledforrelianceonslogansexpressing devotiontofreedomandequality.Evenfascismclaimedthatitsdisciplinemademenfree.Theradicallefthas beenshrillinproclaimingitscommitmenttotruedemocracy,buttherealtestofdemocracyisnotultimategoals buttheproceduresusedinattainingthem. NewLeftmilitantshavethusthreatenedAmericanliberalisminamannerreminiscentoftheharmdone todemocraticAmericanconservatismandliberalanticommunismbytheMcCarthyphenomenonofthe1950s. TheNewLefthasjeopardizedAmericansocialprogressbyprovidingaconvenientrationalizationforthemore conservativesocialattitudes.Beyondthis,ithasbroughttothesurfaceandintensifiedbutnotcausedthe currentcrisisofAmericanliberalism.ThathasperhapsbeenthemostsignificantpoliticalresultoftheNew Left'sneototalitarianreactiontothethirdAmericanrevolution.

3.TheCrisisofLiberalism
Toagreatextent,modernAmericanliberalismhasitselftoblameforitspresentcrisis.Longthealmost exclusivephilosophyofindustrialAmerica, liberalismhasnotonlydominatedthepoliticaldiscourseofthe countrybutlatelyhasbeenfirmlyensconcedintheseatofpower,fromwhichithasconfrontedtheentrenched butlargelydefensivecongressionalruralconservativeforces.Sweptoutofofficein1932,theRepublicanParty neededthirtysixyears,aworldwar,twoAsianwars,anddomesticracialsocialunrestinordertoregainthe WhiteHouse.(Eisenhower'svictoryin1952wasapersonaltriumph,notapartyonehewouldalsohavewonas aDemocraticcandidate.)YeteventhentheRepublicanPartydidsolessbyofferinganalternativepolitical philosophy thanbycapitalizingonthedivisionswithinAmericanliberalismandonthenation'suneasinesswith liberalprescriptionsandstyle. Theprescriptionsandstylewereonceacreativeandhumaneresponsetothepressuresandiniquitiesof industrialcapitalism.AboutthesedilemmasAmericanconservativeshadlittletosay,andAmerican conservatism,preachingpuritanhomiliesandextollingthevirtuesoffreeenterprise,didnotsucceedinmakinga fulladjustmenttotheindustrialageortothemassivesocialandpoliticalawakeningitprompted.Thisleftthe fieldeithertodoctrinaireradicals,wholargelydrewonEuropeanexperience,ortoliberals,whosoughttoadapt theidealismandtheoptimismoftheAmericantraditiontothenewindustrialage.Thesuccessoftheliberals preservedAmerica'suniquenessandthishasbeentheircrowningachievement.Withouttheliberal,America mightwellhaveeitherdecayedeconomicallyor,perhapsevenmorelikely,fallenvictimtoanantidemocratic
*

Bynomeansthemostglaringexampleofthelatteristheexplicitadvocacyofrepressionofviewsdivergentfromthoseapprovedbythe NewLeft.SeeRobertWolff,BarringtonMoore,Jr.,HerbertMarcuse, ACritiqueofPureTolerance, Boston,1965,especiallypp.81110. "Foralongwithitsagrarianismthenewnationwasimbuedwithliberalism,Whigtothebone.Neitherthronenoraltar,nor,aboveall, reverenceforthepastexistedasbarrierstothenewlevelingforcesunleashedbyindustrialtechnology. "ThepoliticalturningpointwasthedefeatoftheSouthintheCivilWar,whichendedforeveranypossibilityofanationbasedonagrarian valuesand,indeed,destroyedforeverthepossibilityofaconservatismthatwasanythingotherthanintellectualpreciousnessorashieldfor particularbusinessinterests.Bryan'sconstituentsinthecrucialejectionof1896weresmallfarmercapitalistswhowereresentfuloftheir disadvantagedpositionwithinthesystemratherthanofindustrialprocessesassuch.Wheninthe1930'sagroupofsouthernwriters respondedtotheAmericaneconomiccrisisandtheattendantculturalcrisisofindustrialcapitalismwiththeirmanifesto I'llTakeMyStand, lookingtoagrarianismandrejectingbothsocialismandindustrialcapitalisminfavorofsmallproperty,theyfoundlittleresonance. DixielandreactedtotheDepressionbystandinginthevanguardofthosesupportingthestatecapitalismoftheNewDeal"(VictorC.Ferkiss, TechnologicalMan:TheMythandtheReality, NewYork,1969,pp.6566).

91

socialandpoliticalcrisis.ThegeniusoftheNewDealliberalsolutionwastofusetheindividualismintrinsicin Americanhistoricalexperienceanindividualismthathasinherentlyreinforcedaconservativereluctance towardcollectivesocialactionwithasenseofsocialresponsibilityasdefinedthroughthepoliticalprocess.In sodoing,AmericanliberalsinitiallyavoidedthedogmaticrigiditiesofEuropeansocialists,thoughtheyhave tendedtosharewiththemtheinclinationtorelyonthegovernmentastheprincipalinstrumentalityforsocial reforms.Thisinclination,philosophicalpreferenceapart,wasinanycasedictatedbythesituationprevailingin America:thenationalgovernmentwastheonlyinstrumentthatwasrelativelyresponsivetothedemocratic process,thatcouldbeusedtoexpressandfulfillthewelfareneedsofthemasses,thatcouldbluntthesharpedge ofeconomicandsocialinequality.

TheLiberalJanus
Intheprocess,however,theAmericanliberalbecameincreasinglyastatistestablishmentarian, confidentofhisprescriptionsandconvincedthathehaddiscoveredthewaytomanagesocialchange.Indeed,the AmericanliberalbecameaJanuslikecreature,graduallyacquiringtwofaces.Therelativelypragmaticliberal whowasrootedintheAmericandemocratictraditionandwhosesocialvaluesprovidedthebroadframeworkfor anondogmaticapproachtoproblemsolvingcametobematchedbyamoreideological,eventuallymore dogmaticliberal,whowasincreasinglyinclinedtowardabstractsocialengineering,pronetodrawhisintellectual inspirationfromEuropeanleftradicalism,ideologicallyhostiletothebusinesscommunity,andratherimpatient withthenonideological"expedient"attitudeofthepragmaticliberalpowerpractitioner.Theemergenceofthe secondliberalwascloselylinkedwiththegrowthinprestigeandinfluenceoftheAmericanintellectual communityafterWorldWarII.Increasingly,itwasthismoredoctrinaireliberalwhosetthetoneandwho dominatedAmericanliberalism,thoughhewasstillunableduringthe1960stogainfullcontrolofthe DemocraticParty. Theaccessionofthedoctrinaireliberaltoprominenceandpoliticalinfluence,ifnottopowera developmentwhichcoincidedwiththeintensifyingstressesintheAmericansocietyhadmuchtodowitha subtlebutimportantchangeoftoneintheliberaldiscourse.Boththeproceduralelementsrootedinliberal democracy'sattachmenttolegalorderandthepatrioticprideinAmerica'sconstitutionalachievementstendedto bedowngradedinfavorofgreateremphasisonrapidsocialchange,onrestructuringeconomicrelations,andon amoregeneralandhighlycriticalreappraisaloftheAmericantradition. 41 Thedoctrinaireliberal,moreover,wasnotinnocentofthe sinofintellectualarrogance. Sinceneither theconservativenorthecommunistwasabletomatchhissocialsuccess,hisselfconfidencegradually developedintoarrogance,oftenexpressedbyanintoleranceofcriticsandaninclinationtolabelasreactionaries allwhodeviatedfromtheliberalnormashehimselfdefinedit.Thisinclinationbecamemostmarkedinthe 42 academicworld,anenvironmentincreasinglydominatedbyliberalintellectuals, whoweremoreinclinedthan theliberalpowerpractitionerstoconceptualizestatistliberalismandtoexcommunicatedeviants.Asaresult,a humaneandcreativecreedgraduallyacquiredovertonesofdominantorthodoxy. Thismadeitmoredifficulteithertoperceiveortorespondtonewandunusualcircumstances.The AmericanliberalapproachedthedilemmasposedbythethirdAmericanrevolutionwithaNewDealstrategy triedandtestedduringtherecentindustrialcapitalistcrisis.Therewaslittleinthedoctrinaireliberalanalysisof theproblemsfacingtheUnitedStatesinthe1960sthatdepartedfromtheprinciplesandremediesdevelopedin theprecedingdecadestherewaslittlerecognitionofthegrowingresponsivenesstosocialproblemsofsocietal institutionsandorganizationsotherthanthefederalgovernment. Moreover,thedoctrinaireliberalswerebyandlargelatein recognizingtheantidemocraticand antiliberalcharacteroftheNewLeft.Variousfactorsplayedarolehere,nottheleastofwhichwasthatinthe pastsomeofthemhadflirtedwithcommunism.ThoughStalinismhadeventuallydisenchantedmostofthem, thefearofbeing"outflankedontheleft"remainedastrongreflex,whilethecruditiesofMcCarthyismhadmade anrtanticommunismhighlyfashionable,sociallyacceptable,andpoliticallylessriskythanfellowtraveling. Thusmanydoctrinaireliberals unliketheirpragmaticpoliticalcounterparts,whoweremoreintunewiththe moodoftheelectoraterespondedtothefactthattheslogansvoicedbytheNewLeftsounded democratictheir undemocraticprocedureswereexcusedasexamplesofyouthfulexuberanceandadmirableidealism. Thedowngradingoforderlylegalprocedure,onthegroundthatithadbecomeabuttressof conservativeinstitutions,contributeddirectlytothecrisisoflegitimacyoftheAmericansystem.Thiscrisisis clearlylinkedwiththeunwillingnessofamajorsectorofthedominantliberalcommunitytoinsistonlegal procedures.Theambivalenceofsomanyprominentliberals, andtheirinclinationtorationalizeabusesby militantsreflectinginparttheirhighlypermissiveeducationalconceptsconveyedtheweakeningliberal commitmenttowhathastraditionallybeenavitalingredientofdemocracy:respectformajorityruleas expressedbyestablisheddemocraticprocedures.

ThePriceofVictoriousSkepticism
Thiscrisisofliberalvalues(andtheNewLeftquiteaccuratelydiagnoseditassuchandtherebygained confidenceinitsattackonliberaldemocracy)isinturnrelatedtomorebasiccauses.Liberalismwasinitiallynot 92

onlyanexpressionofarelevant,modern,andhumaneresponsetotheconditionscreatedbyindustrialismbut alsoanattackonthethenprevailingorthodoxies.Theseorthodoxies,rootedinthetraditionalsociety,werea blendofreligiousviewsandconservative instinctsreinforcedby,andreinforcing,establishedchurchandrural aristocraticinstitutions. Theliberalattackonthesedeeplyingrainedorthodoxiesandbeliefswaspartoftheemergingmoodof rationalismandskepticism.Thismoodwasremarkablywellsuitedtotheneedsofthenewindustrialage. Liberalsreflectedthespiritofthetimesinattackinginstitutionalizedreligiontheywerefashionableintheiranti Catholicismtheyweremodernandmodernizinginattackingtheruralaristocraticconceptsoflife.Theywere alsoremarkablysuccessful,andbythemidtwentiethcenturytheUnitedStateshadbecomeanessentially secularsociety,itsmassmediaanditseducationalsystemdominatedexceptforparochialschoolsbyan essentiallyrationalistandskepticalphilosophy. Liberalsuccessalsomarkedthebeginningoftheliberalcrisis.Withsuccesscameevidencethatthe UnitedStateswasbecomingasocietywithoutanyintegratingvaluesorintegratingculturalinstitutions.The massmediacouldnotreplacereligionasthesourceofintegration,sincetheirorientationwasitselfdevoidof morefundamentalconcerns,andunalloyednationalismalonewasclearlyadangertoliberalvalues. Skepticism wassimplynotenoughwhenitemergedasthetriumphantantithesisoftraditionalreligion.Thegravitationof somedoctrinaireliberalstowardtheradicalleftwashencealsopartiallyaconsequenceofthensuccess. Understandablyunabletoturntowardthevaluestheyhadalwayscombated,thesedoctrinaireliberalswere attractedtothemoreintenselyheldbeliefsoftheradicalleft,sincesuchbeliefsweresimilarlyderivedfroma rejectionoftheold.Formostliberals,however,theturnto theextremeleftwasnotanacceptablesolution,forit involvedabetrayaloftheirtraditionaldemocraticideals.Butwhat,theywereforcedtoaskthemselves,wasto bethesubstanceofavictoriousskepticism? Beliefisanimportantsocialcement.Asocietythatdoesnotbelieveinanythingisasocietyinastateof dissolution.Thesharingofcommonaspirationsandaunifyingfaithisessentialtocommunitylife.Thisisafact thatthecontemporarydoctrinaireandskepticalliberalisbeginningtoconfront,especiallyasaconsequenceof hisambivalenceindefendingproceduraldemocracy. Indeed,thechiefbeneficiariesofthisliberalconfusionhavebeentheAmericanconservativeswho, thoughlargelyunresponsivetothesocialdilemmasofcontemporaryAmerica,havereapedpoliticalrewardsby advocatingnationalism,privateproperty,andconstitutionalorder. Fromthestandpointoftheliberalwhoseeshimselfasaprogressiveforce,beliefisnecessarytothe effectivesocialassimilationofchange.Thesocialcostsoftheabsenceofconvictionandtheparalyzingeffects ofskepticismasarulingprinciplehavebeenmostgraphicallyshownbytheliberal'sambivalentresponsetothe newblackchallenge.Theliberalwasintheforefrontofthestruggleforracialequalityaslongasitwasopposed bytheconservativesoncetheconservativedamshadcrumbledandtheblackemergedwithdemandsthatwere nolongerdefinedforhimbythewhiteliberal,theliberalbecamebaffled.ThiswasthecaseinNewYorkCity's struggleovercommunitycontrolofschools,anditwasalsothecaseatCornellUniversity,wherearmedblack studentspresentedtheirdemandsintheformofanultimatum.Asaconsequence,someliberalsappearedtoturn conservative:theyrejectedblackdemandsforseparatesocialinstitutions.Othersturnedintoundifferentiated * capitulators:theygrantedallblackdemandsinanattempttoexpiatetheirguiltaswhitemen. Yetwhatsocietyneededmostinthistimeoftransitionwasexactlywhattheliberaluncertainof himselfbecausehistraditionalenemywasprostratefoundmostdifficulttoprovide:adefinitionofhis principles,anaffirmationofhisconvictions,andawillingnesstoactonhisdevotiontoliberaldemocracy. Americanblacksalsoneededsucharesponsefromtheliberal,fortheassimilationofanyethnicorracialgroup intosocietyrequiresstableinstitutionsanddefined,thoughnotdogmatic,values.Theintegrationofblacks, difficultenoughundermostcircumstances,becomeshopelessifexistinginstitutionsandvaluesfailtoprovidea frameworkresilientenoughtoabsorbthestrainsinherentintheunprecedentedentranceofalargeracialminority intoequalsocietalparticipation.Theemergenceofradical,antidemocratic,andevenracistyoungblack leadershipwasdoubtlessprimarilyduetothewhitecommunity'sslowresponsetoblackaspirationsitwasalso, however,duetothegrowingcontemptbytheNewLeftandyoungerblackleadersfordemocraticprocedures andtotheirrealizationthatsuchcontemptcouldbeexpressedwithimpunity,giventheliberal'sown ambivalenceaboutthelegitimacyofdemocraticproceduresandthemeaningofdemocraticbelief. Theramificationsofthissituationwereevenbroaderandpoliticallymorepainfultotheliberal:theyled toincreasedrejectionofliberalvaluesbythelowermiddleclassbluecollarworkers,whobegantoviewthe doctrinaireliberalastheirnaturalenemy.Toanindustrialworkerofthe1930sthesymboloftheclassenemy wasarichcapitalistbankerorindustrialist.Evenaslateas1948HarryTrumanwasabletobringaboutan electoralvictorybyappealingtothatsentiment.Bythelate1960sthatsymbolwasreplaced:theclassenemywas theblack,backedbyadogmaticliberalintellectual,preferablyacollegeprofessor.
*

Itistrulyremarkablethatnoprominentliberaleducatorwaswillingtosaytohisblackstudents:"Iwillnotengageinreverse discriminationbygrantingindiscriminatelyany demandsthatyouchoosetomakesimplybecauseyouareblack.IwilltreatyouasItreatall mystudents.TheeraofdiscriminationisoverandIwillnotreturntoitunderanewguise.Icanunderstandthepsychologicalrootsofyour demands,aswell assomeofyourfearsinhavingtocompetewithbetterpreparedwhites.Iwill,therefore,doeverythingIcantoremedythe situation,evenatconsiderablecostandorganizationaleffort,butIwillnotgrantthosedemandswhichwillhavetheeffectofperpetuating yourexclusionfromthissociety."

93

TherehasbeenanundeniableelementofjusticeinthewhitebluecollarAmerican'sresentmentofthe liberal'ssocialidealism.ThelongdelayedandimperativelyneededracialrevolutionwaslaunchedintheUnited Statesbythecomfortablyestablisheduppermiddleclassatarelativelylowcosttothemselvesitwastheless financiallysecureandlessraciallytolerantwhiteworkingclasswhoborethebruntofthechangeineducation,in housing,andinsocialmores.Tomanyindustrialworkersitseemedthattherichwerenotsharingtheeconomic costsoftherevolutioninhiringpracticesorinsocialprograms,andthatthemilitantliberalswereunwillingto * makethecompromisesnecessarytoobtainbroaderpopularacceptanceof painfulsocialreadjustments. The resentmentoftheNewLeftbymuchoftheAmericanpublicthustendedtobecoupledwithwhiteindustrial labor'sfeelingofbetrayalbytheliberalforces,againtotheadvantageofthemoreconservativeelementsin Americanpolitics. Thissenseofdisaffectionwasintensifiedbythefrustrationsbredbythetendencytomultiply governmentalagenciesinordertoobtainpositivesocialchanges. Herethepracticeofthepragmaticliberal mergedwiththeideologicalpreferencesofhisdoctrinairecounterpart.Thecombinationofabstracttheorywitha remote,vast,andcomplexinstrumentalityhadmuchtodowiththealienationandirritationfeltbywhitesectors oftheAmericanpublic. Norwasitalwaysgoodremedialsocialpolicyfortheunderprivilegedgroupsconcerned. Justasthecommunistshaderredinbelievingthatsocialunrest(revolution)wastheproductofeconomicill being(exploitation),thedoctrinaireliberalerredinassumingthateconomicprogresswouldpromptsocialwell being.Bothunderestimatedthepsychologicalandspiritualdimensions.Someliberalssensedthis,and experimentsdesignedtocombinesocialinitiative,freeenterprise,andgovernmentalsupport(suchasRobert Kennedy'sBedfordStuyvesanteffort)weremeanttoprovideanewdirection.Yet,thoughcommunityactionasa broadgoalwasanobleidea,inpracticeittoobecameameansofplayingthegameaccordingtoestablished politicalrules:organizingtogainpowerinordereithertoextractmorepublicfundsortocreateabaseformore 43 radicalpolitics. Inthemeantime,increasedgovernmentalinterventionanddeliberatesocialengineeringthelatter derivedfrom"theories"ofsocialchange anddevelopmentcreatedablendofoperationalincompetence, crosscuttinggroupconflicts,socialindifference,andpoliticalcomplexitythatmadeforbothabreakdownof publicconsensusandthealienationoftheyoungergeneration.Havingfinallyobtainedauniqueopportunityto domuchofwhathehadlongaspiredtodo,thepragmaticliberaldiscoveredthathisintellectualarsenal,derived fromahighlysuccessfulresponsetothecrisisofanadvancedindustrialsociety,wasexhaustedthedoctrinaire liberalconfidentthathehadtherightremediesandtheory,impatientwiththeseemingconservatismofthe morepragmaticpowerpractitioner,andambivalenttowardtheanarchism andtotalitarianismoftheNewLeft underminedtheliberal'sbaseofsupportbydestroyingpublicconfidenceintheliberal'scommitmenttoliberal democracy. Thecontemporaryliberalthusfacesthethreatofbeingdeprivedofhisgreatestassets:hisoptimism,his faithinAmerica'sfuture,hisvision.Inresponsetothecrisisthathefeelsacutelyandhasinmanyrespects anticipatedmorecorrectlythantheconservativetheliberal,especiallytheintellectualdoctrinarian,tendsmore andmoretowithdrawintoanideologicalshell,savouring thepleasuresofindiscriminateattacksonthenatureof Americansocietyandthoroughlyenjoyingapocalypticpredictionsoftheimminentdoomofthissociety. AprogressivesocietyhasbeendefinedasonethatinvolvesaninterplayofUtopiangoalsandpractical 44 steps, butthedoctrinaireliberalseemedincreasinglytooffersocietyonlyacombinationofpedestrian prescriptionsanddogmaticsolutions.Hisattitudetowardspaceexploration,whichlinkedtheexplosionof knowledgewithdeeplyfelthumanaspirations, issymbolicallysuggestive.Thedoctrinarian'sresponsetothe adventure,challenge,andsocialopportunityprovidedbythespaceagewasunimaginative,politicallyunwise, andpsychologicallyanachronistic HiscallforconcentratingallattentiononAmerica'sunfinishedterrestrial
*

Itisstrikingthatitwasonlyinthewakeofthe1968presidentialelectionsthatorganizationssuchastheAmericansforDemocraticAction begantostresstheneedtoremedytheliberal'sneglect,andeven abuse,oftheindustrialworkingclass.Ontheeveofthepresidential elections,aseriesofnewspaperarticlesin TheNewYorkTimesexploredtheethnicandeconomicsourcesofnorthernurbansupportfor Wallace,repeatedlypointingitsfingeratthe Slavicethnicminority.Subsequently,itturnedoutthatbothinthatelection(inwhich,according totheNBCvotingprofile,Wallaceobtainednationally22percentoftheItalianethnicvote,17.8percentoftheSlavic,and13percentof theJewish [Newsweek,November11,1968,pp.3536])andinthe1969metropolitanelectionstheconservativeswingwasamuchmore generalizedcaseofurbandisaffectionwiththeliberalapproach. "Wenowhavetentimesasmanygovernmentagenciesconcernedwithcityproblemsaswehadin1939.Wehaveincreasedbyafactorof athousandorsothenumberofreportsandpapersthathavetobefilledoutbeforeanythingcanbedoneinthecity.SocialworkersinNew YorkCityspendsome70or80percentoftheirtimefillingoutpapersforWashington,forthestategovernmentinAlbany,andforNew YorkCity.Nomorethan20or30percentoftheirtime,thatis,almostanhourandahalfaday,isavailablefortheirclients,thepoor.As JamesRestonreportedin The NewYorkTimes(November23,1966),therewerethen170differentfederalaidprogramsonthebooks, financedbyover400separateappropriationsandadministeredby21federaldepartmentsandagenciesaidedby150Washingtonbureaus andover400regionaloffices.OneCongressionalsessionalonepassed20healthprograms,17neweducationalprograms,15neweconomic developmentprograms,12newprogramsforthecities,17newresourcesdevelopmentprograms,and4newmanpowertrainingprograms, eachwith itsownadministrativemachinery"(PeterF.Drucker,"TheSicknessofGovernment,"ThePublicInterest,Winter1969,p.8). PresidentKennedy'sgoalofreachingthemoonwastheobjectofparticularscorn.Forexample,LewisMumfordassertedthat"themoon landingprogram...isasymbolicactofwar,andtheslogantheastronautswillcarry,proclaimingthatitisforthebenefitofmankind,ison thesamelevelastheAirForce'smonstroushypocrisy'OurProfessionIsPeace.'...Itisnoaccidentthattheclimacticmoonlanding coincideswithcutbacksineducation,thebankruptcyofhospitalservices,theclosingoflibrariesandmuseums,andthemountingdefilement oftheurbanandnaturalenvironment,tosaynothingofmanyotherevidencesofgross socialfailureandhumandeterioration"(TheNewYork Times, July21,1969).

94

businesssimplyignoredthepsychologicalfactthatanationbecomesmoreawareofitsshortcomingsasit expandsratherthancontractsitsambitions. ItwasthefrontiertraditionthatstirredtheAmericanimagination,createdasocietyofmovementand growth,andgaveAmericaitsintegrativemyth.Scientificexploration,includingexplorationofspace,has becomethefunctionalequivalentofAmerica'sfrontiertradition,andsuchendeavorisimmediatelyrelevantto theeducationalandscientificattainmentsofthecountry.Thisisnottoargueagainstgreatersocialexpenditures. Itis,however,toarguethatabroadlygaugedimprovementofAmericansocietywillbeadeliberatebyproduct ofasocietythatthrustsforwardwithitsacquiredenergy,thatseeksaltogethernewobjectivesincludingthose beyonditsimmediateconfinestherebyintheprocessachievinggreatersocialconsciousnessandsuccessfully confrontingtheunresolvedproblemsofthepast. Evenasidefromthe possibilitythatthetechnologicalimpactofthespaceprogrammayendupby contributingmoretotheresolutionofcityghettoproblemsthanalltheprogrammaticandsociologicaldoctrines currentlysofashionable,thereisalsoanimportantinternationalaspecttothespaceeffort:amajorworldpower suchastheUnitedStateshastopioneerinthoseareasoflifewhicharehistoricallyrelevantandcrucial.Tothe extentthatoursisascientificage,thefailureoftheUnitedStatestopushbeyondexistingfrontiersandspace offersaverydramaticchallengewouldmeanthelossofamajorpsychologicalmotivationforinnovation. Thoughitmaynotbepopulartosayso,thefactisthatacontinentalsocietyliketheUnitedStatescouldnotsur vivebybecomingmerelyanotherSwedenitwouldnotsurviveinternationallyanditisnotevencertainthatit wouldfindasatisfactorybalancebetweendomesticmaterialneedsandspiritualaspirations.Spaceexplorationis morecompatiblewiththetraditionof apioneeringcountrywhosegreatnesshasbeenlinkedwithinnovationin constitutionalarrangements,ineconomicdevelopment,incontinentalexploration,andinscientificinvestigation. TomanyAmericans,contemporaryliberalismoffersneitherprinciple norprogress.Thecrisisof 45 Americanliberalismishencebothacrisisofconfidenceandofhistoricalrelevance. Itpresentsthebleak prospectthat liberalism, historicallythemostvitalsourceofinnovationincontemporaryAmericandemocracy, maybecomethecriticalexpressionofadoctrinarianminorityincreasinglyreactiveinspiteofitsrhetoricand ahavenforphilosophicprotestagainstthedehumanizingeffectsofscience,whiletheactiveshapingofthe * futurepassesintothehandsofasociallysomewhatconservativebuttechnologicallyinnovativeelite.

TheEndofLiberalDemocracy?
Atechnologicallyinnovativeandpoliticallyconservativephasethatwouldleadtosomeformoftechnological managerialismisonlyonepossibility.Otheralternativescouldbemoreextreme.Americansocioeconomic tensionscouldbeaggravatedbythelossofmomentumineconomicgrowthandthereforeinthepaceof scientificresearchandtechnologicaldevelopmentanimportantsourceofnationalpride.Racialstrife,urban guerrillaactivity,andalienationoftheyoung,inadditiontoaprofoundnationalsplitoverAmerica'sglobalrole, couldresultinafurtherbreakdownofnationalconsensusandleadeithertheextremeleftortheextremerightto capitalizeonAmerica'spoliticaldisintegrationbyattemptingtoseizepower. Onbalance,thechancesforthesuccessofaseriousrevolutionaryattemptdonotappeartobevery good.TobecomeaneffectiverevolutionaryinstrumentthepresentNewLeftwouldhave notonlytorelatemore meaningfullytothenewissuesconfrontingourtimesbutalsotodevelopthetechniques,theskills,andthe organizationalformsrequiredtoeffectarevolutionintheworld'smostmodern,technologicallyadvanced society.Thiswouldrequirethetransformationofasomewhatpetulantmiddleclassyouthmovement,supported fromasafedistancebysomesectorsofthemoreesotericurbanintellectualcommunity,intoanorganization withasystematictheoryofactionthattakesintoaccountthespecificityofcontemporaryAmerica.SDSworship ofCheGuevara,atragicruralrebel,anditsgrowingrelianceonturgidMarxistLeninistphraseologymaybea compensationforitsinabilitytomakethatadaptation,butithardlyaugursitsemergenceasaneffective revolutionaryforce. Thereisasignificantdifferencebetweenrevolutionaryactivityandrevolutionarysuccess. Revolutionaryactivitythroughterrorism,sabotage,selectiveassassinations,urbanguerrillastrifeispossible andevenlikelyintheearly1970s.ItwillcomenotfromtheNewLeftbutfromitsemergingsuccessorthe professionallyViolentLeftnotfromtheidealisticyoungpeoplewhoinfuseitwithzealandconfusionbutfrom thoseamongthemwhohavebeenhardened,disillusioned,andembitteredbytheirexperiencesinprisonsand
Incontrast,MichaelHarringtonnotedthat"thereisacertainpuritanismontheLeftwheneverthequestionofspacecomesup.Itisthe fashiontodenigratespendingmoneyonheavenwhentheearthisstillsoshoddy.Butthisviewignorestwoimportantpoints.First,ifpeace weretobreakout,amassivecutbackinthebillionsfordefenseplusthenormalgrowthofafullemploymenteconomywouldprovide sufficientfundsforrebuildingAmerica and goingtothestars.Second,spaceisnotemptyofsocial,scientific,andevenaesthetic significance.Itcouldconceivablyprovideroomforhumanbeings,vastnewresourcesforthedevelopmentoftheworld,anditwillcertainly incite adeeperknowledgeofbothmanandtheuniverse.Beyondthesepragmaticconsiderations,thereisamoralimperativewhichrequires thathumanityliveuptothefullnessofitspowers,andmencanrightlyboastthattheyhavealwaysexperimentedandinnovated"(American PowerintheTwentiethCentury, p.31). * Thoughpublicopinioncanshiftdramatically,itisworthnotingthatin1969pollsshowedthataconsistentmajorityofyoungerpeopleand thosewithcollegeeducationwereinfavorofincreasedspaceexplorationthoseopposedweremostnumerousamongthemoreelderlyand amongthosewithgradeschooleducation(cf.Galluppoll,ascitedby TheNewYorkTimes,August7,1969,andHarrispoll,TheWashington Post,August25,1969).Atthesametime,collegegraduatestendedtofavormoreenergeticlawenforcement,includingmorewiretapping (Galluppoll,ascitedby TheNewYorkTimes,August21,1969).

95

penitentiaries.Thesemenwillbepsychologicallypreparedforrealviolence,andtheywilldismissaschild'splay thesitdownsandtheraidsondeans'offices.Americansocietywouldthenhavetoconfrontamajorinternal threat. Buteventhenthecollectiveweightofpoliticalandsocialinstitutions,aswellasthecoercivemightof organizedauthority,wouldinallprobabilityprevail.AslongastheNewLeftremainslargelyineffective inits sporadicrelianceonviolence,itwillbesparedshoulditbecometheViolentLeft,suppressionwouldbeits almostcertainfate.Thefactisthatrevolutionsarehistoricalrarities,andinmoderntimestheirsuccesshas generallyrequiredacombinationofinternalsocialdissolutionandexternalmilitarydefeat.Theorganizationof powermustitselfbreakdown,theelitesmustbesplit,thesocioeconomicsystemmustmalfunction,an alternativeleadershipmustcrystallize,andthemorecreativesocialforcesmustbe,atleastinsignificantpart, convincedthatabetteralternativeisavailable.Shortoftheseconditions,relianceonrevolutionaryviolenceis * likelytobreedsuppression,andeveneffectivelybrutalsuppression. Thesuppressionof theViolentLeftwouldalmostcertainlypushthecountrytotheright.Organized coercionwouldrequiretheintroductionofavarietyofcontrolsovertheindividual.Ifundertakensystematically bythelegitimateinstitutions,theprocesswouldinallprobabilitystrengthentheconservativepoliticalforcesif undertakenineffectively,itwouldprobablypromptrightwingvigilantism,basedonavarietyofparamilitary formations.Buteventhenarightextremistcoupseemsmostunlikely.Suchacoupwouldrequirethe developmentofadegreeoforganizationalcohesionandconceptualrelevancethatseemsbeyondthecapability 46 oftheextremerightistsmostofwhomhavebeenleftbehindbythepaceofAmericanchange. Themorelikelyprobability,then,is thatsporadiccivilstrifewouldleadtoapolarizationofpublic opinion,withtheDemocraticPartygraduallybecomingidentifiedwithsomeofthelessextremeNewLeft positionsand/orsplitting,andtheRepublicanPartystrivingtoexploitthissituationandtoconsolidateanational conservativemajority.Thiscouldcomeaboutgraduallythemore adventuresomeaspectsoftheAmericandream wouldbepreemptedbythemoreconservativeleaders(forexample,SpiroAgnew'scallforamissiontoMars), whilelowermiddleclassAmerica'sdisillusionmentwithliberalism,resentmentoftheNewLeft,andfearofthe blackswouldpromptsuchanextremeconcentrationonorderthatconcernwithprogressinracerelationswould becomemerelywindowdressingandeventuallyfadefromthepublicagenda.Theemergenceofamore reactionarypoliticalresponsewouldneitherbedramaticnorhavetheovertovertonesoffascism. Thisprocesscouldbeacceleratedbythedoctrinaireliberals'determinationeithertoremoldthe DemocraticPartyintheirownimageortocreatetheirownpoliticalparty.Theinsistenceonadoctrinaire responsetocomplexityandtheimpatiencewithmoregeneralizedcompromisesarecharacteristicsocial manifestationsintimesofhistoricaldiscontinuityashasbeenalreadynoted,theyareparticularlyrepresentative oftheyoungandofmarginalmembersofsociety.Thepoliticalconsequencewouldbeanevengreatersqueeze onthepragmatic,lessideologicalliberals,pressedfromone sidebythedoctrinariansadvocatinglargescale socialengineeringandoptingoutofexternalchallengesandfromtheotherbytheconservativespreachingthe meritsofsocialconsolidationandofnewscientificfrontiers. Thelatentantiintellectualism ofagreatmanyAmericansintensifiedbycollegedisorders,aggravated bytheambivalenceoftheintellectuals,andsharpenedbyclasshostilitytowardtherebelliousoffspringof middleclassAmericacouldalsounderminepublicsupportforthecountry'seducationalinstitutions,thus matchingtheperilouschallengefromtheleftwithanequallyperilouschallengefromtheright.TheAmerican universitywouldbecomepoliticized:eitherconstantlyagitatedovernonacademicissues,withitsfacultiesand studentspassingresolutionsonallsortsofextraneousmattersandincreasinglyinjectingpoliticalcriteriainto theirintellectualpursuitsorsubjecttostricteroutsidecontrolbyconservativeassembliesandtrusteeswho wouldimposetheirpolitical biasesontheinternalworkingsof academia. Theresultingdestructionoftheliberal universitywoulditselfbeagravesymptomofthedecline ofAmericanliberaldemocracy.
*

OnthispointthereisagreementamongsuchdissimilarobserversastheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPreventionofViolence andBarringtonMoore,aseverecriticofthepresentAmericansystem.Thecommissionconcludedthat"collectiveviolenceseldomsucceeds asaninstrumentforaccomplishinggroupobjectives.Itcansucceedwhenonegroupsooverpowersitsopponentsthattheyhavenochoice buttodieordesist.Butmoderngovernmentsaremuchmorelikelytosucceedinsuchconteststhantheiropponents. "InthecontemporaryUnitedStates,attemptsatrevolutionfromtheleftarelikely toinvitemassiverepressionfromtheright.Theoccurrence ofviolenceinthecontextofprotestactivitiesishighlylikelytoalienategroupsthatarenotfundamentallyinsympathywiththeprotesters. "ThechroniclesofAmericanlaborconflictssuggest thatviolence,whenitoccurred,wasalmostalwaysineffectivefortheworkersinvolved. Themoreviolenttheconflict,themoredisastroustheconsequencesfortheworkers"(conclusionsofareporttotheCommissiononViolence inAmerica,TheNewYork Times, June6,1969). Verymuchinthesamevein,MoorewarnedthattheprospectsforanurbanrevolutioninAmericaareverydimandthatsuccessfulradical revolutionshavesofarfailedtoprovide"alastingcontributiontohumanfreedom"("Revolution inAmerica?" TheNewYorkReviewof Books, January30,1969,p.10.SeealsothethoughtfulstudybyBruceSmith,"ThePoliticsofProtest:HowEffectiveIsViolence?" ProceedingsoftheAcademyofPoliticalScience, July1968). ExamplesofthisareprovidedbytheColumbiaUniversitySenate'sfirstmajoractin1969,whichwastoexpressitsjudgmentonthe Vietnamwar,andbytheobjectionsofUCLA'strusteestoayoungblackphilosophyprofessorbecauseofherpoliticalassociations. Thelongrange consequencesoftheattackontheuniversitiesappeartobeoflittleconcerntotheNewLeft.Forexample,thedemandfor theseparationofdefenseresearchfromuniversitiescouldcreateaseparatecomplexofgovernmentoperatedmilitaryresearchinstitutes whosesecrecywouldshieldtheiroperationsfromoutsideintellectualinfluence,asistrueintheSovietUnion.Thisispreciselywhathas alreadyhappenedinthecaseofbacteriologicalwarfaredevices,whichweredevelopedinclosedgovernmental researchlaboratoriesfar removedfromtheoverviewofthescientificcommunity.TheremovalofROTCcouldsimilarlyaccelerateratherthanslowdownthe

96

Insuchacontext,thealreadystaggeringtaskofcreatinganequitablemultiracialsocietycouldbecome hopeless.Presenttrendsauguraworseningcrisisunlessamajorsocialeffortatameliorationispromptly 47 undertaken. Assumingpublicindifferenceor,evenworse,publichostilitytowardsuchefforts,therearetwo equallyhorrendousprospectsforwhiteblackrelationsinAmerica:suppressionoftheblacksand/ortheir separation.Eitheronecouldbeundertakenonlyinthecontextofamorereactionarypoliticalatmosphereand woulditselfgenerateoverwhelmingpressurestowardreaction.Suppression,includingeffortsatsomeformof separateresettlement,wouldinvolvemajorstrife,fortheAmericanblackisnolongerpliantand,moreover, manywhiteswouldflocktohisside.Thoughsuppressioncouldeffectivelybeundertakenespeciallyinthe wakeofmassiveblackuprisingspromptedbydesperationattheabsenceofprogress thepricepaidwouldbea tragicreversaloftheprocessbywhichthescopeofAmericandemocracyhasdeepenedandenlargedoverthe courseofthecountry'shistory. Anotherthreat,lessovertbutnolessbasic,confrontsliberaldemocracy.Moredirectlylinkedtothe impactoftechnology,itinvolvesthegradualappearanceofamorecontrolledanddirectedsociety.Sucha societywouldbedominatedbyanelitewhoseclaimtopoliticalpowerwouldrestonallegedlysuperiorscientific knowhow.Unhinderedbytherestraintsoftraditionalliberalvalues,thiselitewouldnothesitatetoachieveits politicalendsbyusingthelatestmoderntechniquesforinfluencingpublicbehaviorandkeepingsocietyunder closesurveillanceandcontrol.Undersuchcircumstances,thescientificandtechnologicalmomentumofthe countrywouldnotbereversedbutwouldactuallyfeedonthesituationitexploits. Theemergenceofalargedominantparty,alongsidethemorenarrowlyfocusedandmoreintensely doctrinairegroupingsontherightandtheleft,couldacceleratethetrendtowardsuchtechnological managerialism.SuchalargedominantpartywouldcombineAmericansociety'squestforstabilitywithits historicalaffinityforinnovation.Relyingonscientificgrowthtoproducethemeansfordealingwithsocialills,it wouldtapthenation'sintellectualtalentforbroadtargetplanningandexploittheexistenceof doctrinairegroups byusingthemassocialbarometersandassourcesofnovelideas.Persistingsocialcrisis,theemergenceofa charismaticpersonality,andtheexploitationofmassmediatoobtainpublicconfidencewouldbethe * steppingstonesinthepiecemealtransformationoftheUnitedStatesintoahighlycontrolledsociety. Indifferent ways,boththedoctrinarianandtheconservativemightfindthetemptationsinherentinthenewtechniquesofso cialcontroltoodifficulttoresist.Theinclinationofthedoctrinairelefttolegitimizemeansbyendscouldlead themtojustifymoresocialcontrolonthegroundthatitservesprogress.Theconservatives,preoccupiedwith publicorderandfascinatedbymoderngadgetry,wouldbetemptedtousethe newtechniquesasaresponseto unrest,sincetheywouldfailtorecognizethatsocialcontrolisnottheonlywaytodealwithrapidsocialchange. Suchanoutcomewereittocometopasswouldrepresentaprofoundlypessimisticanswertothe questionwhetherAmericanliberaldemocracycanassimilateandgivephilosophicalmeaningtotherevolutionit isundergoing.ThismatternotonlyhasrelevancefortheUnitedStatesithaslargerimplications:American successorfailuremayprovideasignificantindicationwhetheramoderndemocracywithhighlyeducated citizenscansuccessfullyundergoanextensivesocialchangewithoutlosingitsessentiallydemocraticcharacter. Fortunately,theAmericantransitionalsocontainsthepotentialforanAmericanredemption.

emergenceofaseparatelargeprofessionalcareerofficercorps inotherwords,awarriorcaste. * Thiscouldalsoproduceahistoricalparadox.ThetraditionallydemocraticAmericansocietycould,becauseofitsfascinationwithtechnical efficiency,becomeanextremelycontrolledsociety,anditshumaneandindividualisticqualitieswouldtherebybelost.(Suchasocietyisthe subjectofKurtVonnegut'snovelPlayerPiano.)Ontheotherhand,thecommunistcountries,becauseoftheirorganizationalinefficiency andthegraduallooseningofpoliticalcontrols,mightbecomemorepreoccupiedwithquestionsofhumanismtheirsocialistinefficiency, combinedwiththesemorehumaneconcerns,couldeventuallyproduceamoreflexiblesocialorderinsomeofthem. Itshould,however,benotedthatthisextremelyunlikelyprospectisapplicableonlytothemoreadvancedcommunistcountries.Theweight ofthepoliticaltraditionandgreatpoweraspirationsoftheRussianformofcommunism,aswellastherelativesocioeconomic backwardnessofmostcommuniststates,argueagainstit.Foracritiqueoftheconceptofconvergence,i.e.,theevolutionofacommunist systemintoatraditionalliberaldemocracy,seetheconcludingchapterofthebookIwrotewithSamuelHuntington,PoliticalPower: USA/USSR, NewYork,1964.

97

PARTV
AmericaandtheWorld
America'srelationshipwiththeworldmustreflectAmericandomesticvaluesandpreoccupations.A profounddiscrepancybetweentheexternalconductofademocraticsocietyanditsinternalnormsisnolonger possiblemasscommunicationsquicklyexposethegulfandundercutthesupportneededforitsforeignpolicy. Justasanationpreoccupiedwiththecommunistthreatathomecanconductavigorouslyanticommunistpolicy abroad,oranationfearfulofrevolutioncanbecomeintenselyinvolvedincounterrevolutionaryactivity,soa nationconcernedwithsocialjusticeandtechnologicaladaptationcannothelpbutbecomesimilarlycommitted onaninternationallevel. Inhis SecondTreatiseonGovernment,JohnLockewrote,"...inthebeginning,alltheworldwas America."TodayalltheworldisAmerica,inthesensethatAmericaisthefirsttoexperiencethesocial, psychological,political,andideologicaldilemmasproducedbyman'ssuddenacquisitionofaltogether unprecedentedpoweroverhisenvironmentandoverhimself.ThethirdAmericanrevolution,occurringinanera ofvolatilebeliefsandofrapidlyspreadingtechnologicalchange,thusclearlydictatesAmerica'srole:thatofthe socialinnovator,exploitingscienceintheserviceofmanbutwithoutdogmaticallyprescribingthedestinyof man.ThesuccessofAmericainbuildingahealthydemocraticsocietywouldholdpromiseforaworldstill dominatedbyideologicalandracialconflicts,byeconomicandsocialinjustice.America'sfailurenotonlywould beasetbackfortrendsunderwaysincethegreatrevolutionsofthelateeighteenthcenturybutcouldsignifya morefundamentalhumanfailure:man'sinabilitytoovercomehisbaserinstinctsandhiscapitulationbeforethe complexityandpowerofscience.

1.TheAmericanFuture
IftheproblemsthatconfrontAmericawereneitherrecognizednoranticipated,theinherentdangers wouldbeevengreater.Suchisnotthecase.ContemporaryAmericaisperhapsmorecandidlycriticalandmore demandingofitselfthananyothersociety:nationalreportspinpointingthesociety'sfailures,devastating critiquesofnationalshortcomings,elaborateeffortsatsocialstocktakingallreflectamoreintrospectiveand deliberatelysobernationalmood.Studiesofthefuture,organizedonalargescale(bothbyspecialacademic commissionsandbywellendowedprivateinstitutes),indicatemountingnationalrecognitionthatthefuturecan * andmust beplanned,thatunlessthereisamodicumofdeliberatechoice,changewillresultinchaos. This does notguaranteethatanationalresponsewillactuallybemounted,butitdoesindicateamorepervasiveawareness amongleadingsectorsofsocietyoftheneedforadeliberateresponse. ThehistoricalvitalityoftheUnitedStatessystemderivesfromthedeeplyrootedcommitmentofthe Americanpeopletotheideaofdemocraticchange.TheAmericantraditionoffreedialogueandofhierarchically 1 unfetteredexpressionofdisagreement hasbeenanimportantfactorindevelopingthisresponsivenesstochange ithasmadeitpossibletoexploitprotestmovements(andtherebyrenderthemhistoricallysuperfluous)by adaptingandadoptingtheirprograms.ThisistodenyneithertheelementofviolenceinAmericanhistorynorthe oftnotedconservatismoftheelectorate.Nevertheless,thefundamentalrealityofAmericanlifehasbeenthe assimilationoftherapidchangeinducedbythefrontier,byimmigration,andbyindustrialgrowth.Adynamic socioeconomicrealityhasblendedwithacertainpoliticalconservatismandcreatedapluralistsociopolitical systemthathasinthepastprovenitselftoberemarkablyresilientinabsorbingextraordinarychangeitpossesses astructuralqualitycapableofgeneratinganddecipheringwarningsignalsofmountingsocialstress. Today'sAmericahassethigherstandardsforitselfthanhasanyothersociety:itaimsatcreatingracial harmonyonthebasisofequality,atachievingsocialwelfarewhilepreservingpersonalliberty,ateliminating povertywithoutshacklingindividualfreedom.TensionsintheUnitedStatesmightbelesswereittoseekless butinitsambitiousgoalsAmericaretainsitsinnovativecharacter. ThoughtheNewLeftandparticularlytheViolentLefthastemporarilyservedtofortifysocially conservativeorevenreactionarytrends,theimpatienceoftheyoungismoreandmorelikelytopermeatethe sociopoliticalsystem,especiallyastheybegintooccupymoreinfluentialpositionsandmakeitmoreresponsive totheneedforchangeandreform.Moreover,theincreasinglyinternationalexperienceoftheAmerican intellectualandbusinesselitehasalreadypromptedagreaterinclinationtoconsidercontemporaryproblems withinalargerframework,therebydrawinglessonsfortheUnitedStatesfromboththepoliticalevolutionand

Theconcernisnotlimitedtointellectualsbutincludesbusinessmenaswell.Thus,inMarch1969Fortune unveiledaplantoremedythe conditionof"asecondratenationwithacivilizationonlyhalfbuilt,"offeringaprogramforextensiverehabilitationofthenation.Itwould requireamassivepublicandprivateeffort. SeealsoamoreextensivestudybyLeonardA.Lecht,Goals,PrioritiesandDollars:TheNextDecade (NewYork,1966),whichoutlinesin extraordinarydetailaplanforallocatingtheGNPforvarioustasksofnationalrenewal,withspecialconcentrationonthescientific technologicalandecologicalstructureofsociety.

98

* thesocialinnovationofotheradvancedcountries. Asaresult,moreAmericansrecognizethatthetwobroad areasofneededanditistobehopeddevelopingchangeinvolvetheinstitutionalandtheculturalaspectsof Americansociety.Theformerlargely,thoughnotexclusively,pertainstothepoliticalsphere,thelattertothe educationaldomain,particularlyasitconcernsthecontentandtheshapingofnationalvalues.Moredeliberate changeinbothrealmswouldserveasacatalystforreforminotherareasofnationallife,providingboththe frameworkandthemotivationfor thetimelyadoptionofneededremedies.

ParticipatoryPluralism
TheapproachingtwohundredthanniversaryoftheDeclarationofIndependencecouldjustifythecall foranationalconstitutionalconventiontoreexaminethenation'sformalinstitutionalframework.Either1976or 1989thetwohundredthanniversaryoftheConstitutioncouldserveasasuitabletargetdateforculminatinga nationaldialogueontherelevanceofexistingarrangements,theworkingsoftherepresentativeprocess,andthe desirabilityofimitatingthevariousEuropeanregionalizationreformsandofstreamliningtheadministrative structure.Moreimportantstill,eitherdatewouldprovideasuitableoccasionforredefiningthemeaningof moderndemocracyataskadmittedlychallengingbutnotnecessarilymoresothanwhen itwasundertakenby thefoundingfathersandforsettingambitiousandconcretesocialgoals. Realism,however,forcesustorecognizethatthenecessarypoliticalinnovationwillnotcomefrom directconstitutionalreform,desirableasthatwouldbe. Theneededchangeismorelikelytodevelop incrementallyandlessovertly.Nonetheless,itseventualscopemaybefarreaching,especiallyasthepolitical processgraduallyassimilatesscientifictechnologicalchange.Thus,inthepoliticalspheretheincreasedflowof informationandthedevelopmentofmoreefficienttechniquesofcoordinationmaymakepossiblegreater devolutionofauthorityandresponsibilitytothelowerlevelsofgovernmentandsociety.Inthepastthedivision ofpowerhastraditionallycausedproblemsofinefficiency,poorcoordination,anddispersalofauthority,but todaythenewcommunicationsandcomputationtechniquesmakepossiblebothincreasedauthorityatthelower levelsandalmost instantnationalcoordination. Therapid transferralofinformation,combinedwithhighly advancedanalyticalmethods,wouldalsomakepossiblebroadnationalplanninginthelooserFrenchsenseof target definitionnotonlyconcentratingoneconomicgoalsbutmoreclearlydefiningecologicalandcultural objectives. Technologicaldevelopmentsmakeitcertainthatmodernsocietywillrequiremoreandmoreplanning. DeliberatemanagementoftheAmericanfuturewillbecomewidespread,withtheplannereventuallydisplacing thelawyerasthekey sociallegislatorandmanipulator.Thiswillputagreateremphasisondefininggoalsand, bythesametoken,onamoreselfconsciouspreoccupationwithsocialends.Howtocombinesocialplanning withpersonalfreedomisalreadyemergingasthekeydilemmaoftechnetronicAmerica,replacingtheindustrial age'spreoccupationwithbalancingsocialneedsagainstrequirementsoffreeenterprise. Thestrengtheningoflocal,especiallymetropolitan,governmentisalreadyrecognizedasanurgent necessityforthedemocraticprocessintheUnitedStates.Thedevolutionoffinancialresponsibilitytolower echelonsofthepoliticalsystemmayencourageboththeflowofbettertalentandgreaterlocalparticipationin moreimportantlocaldecisionmaking.Nationalcoordinationandlocalparticipationcouldthusbeweddedby newsystemsofcoordination.Thishasalreadybeentriedsuccessfullybysomelargebusinesses. ThetrendtowardmorecoordinationbutlesscentralizationwouldbeinkeepingwiththeAmerican traditionofblurringsharpdistinctionsbetweenpublicandprivateinstitutions.InstitutionssuchasTVAorthe FordFoundationperformfunctionsdifficultformanyEuropeanstounderstand,sincetheyaremoreaccustomed eithertodifferentiatesharplybetweenthepublicsphereandtheprivate(ashasbeentypicaloftheindustrialage ortosubordinatetheprivatetothepublic(asisfavouredbythesocialistsandsomeliberals)ortoabsorbthe privatebythepublic(ashasbeenthecaseincommuniststates). Atonetimethequestionofownershipwasthedecisivesocialandpoliticalissueofasociety undergoingmodernization.Theformsoflandownershipcustomaryinthefeudalagriculturalagewereextended throughforceofhabitaswellashistoricalaccommodationintotheindustrialageowningafactorywasseenas beinglargelythesameasowningapieceofland.Thiseventuallyledtoasevereconflictbetweenoldformsand
*

Forexample,itisnowmorecandidlyadmittedthatAmericahasmuchtolearnfromWesternEuropeinmetropolitanplanning,inlocal urbanplanning,inregionalization,inthedevelopmentofnewtowns,andinsocialandlegalinnovation. Forexample,1976couldprovideatargetdateforamassiveefforttoterminatepovertyascurrentlydefined,ortobringNegroeducationup tothenationalaverage1989,forecologicaltargets. Forexample,onesimplethoughadmittedlyunattainableconstitutionalreformwouldgoalongwaytowardmakingCongressmore responsivetosocialevolution:thepassageofacongressionalequivalentoftheTwentysecondAmendmentlimitingthepresidentialtermof office. Thesetechniquescouldalsobeusedtoimproveelectoralproceduresandtoprovideforcloserconsultationbetweenthepublicandits representatives.ExistingelectoralmachineryintheUnitedStatesinregardtobothregistrationandvotingprocedurehassimplynotkept upwithinnovationinelectroniccommunicationsandcomputation.Reforms(suchaselectronichomevotingconsoles)tomakeitpossible forrepresentativesofthepublictoconsulttheirconstituentsrapidly,andfortheseconstituentstoexpresstheirviewseasily,areboth technicallypossibleandlikelytodevelopinviewofgrowingdissatisfactionwithpresentmachinery.Moreintenseconsultation,not necessarilyonlyonthenationalleveloronlyinregardtopoliticalinstitutions,wouldfurtherenhancetheresponsivenessoftheAmerican socialandpoliticalsystem.

99

modesofevaluatingindividualrightsandthenewrequirementsofindustrialorganization,ofcollective employeerights,andofchangedsociopoliticalinstitutions.Socialismwasoneextremesolutioninthemore advancedWestdepersonalizedcorporateownershipandthelimitedsharingofauthoritywithorganizedlabor wasthegeneralpatternofaccommodation.Thequestionofownershipwasthusredefinedintooneofcontroland regulation,whiletheissueofexploitationassociatedwithownershipwasreplacedbynewproblemsconcerning theeconomicparticipationandpsychologicalwellbeingoftheemployed. Intheprocess,eveninAmericathefederalgovernmentemergedasthekeyinstitutionforrestructuring socialrelations,andthequestionoftheextentofthestate'sroleineconomicaffairsbecamecrucial.Unlikethe agriculturalage,duringwhichfewstateinstitutionswereinvolvedinorganizingandassistingman'sdaily existence,theindustrialageproducedbothgreateropportunitiesfornationaldirectionandagreatersocial demandforgovernmentimposedsocialjustice.Morecentralizeddirectionbythestateseemedtheonly alternativetochaosandtheonlyresponsetosocialinjustice. Ouragehasbeenmovingtowardanewpattern,blurringdistinctionsbetweenpublicandprivatebodies andencouragingmorecrossparticipationinbothbytheiremployeesandmembers.InEuropecodetermination notonlyhasinvolvedprofitsharingbuthasincreasinglyledtoparticipationinpolicymakingpressuresinthe samedirectionareclearlybuildingupintheUnitedStatesaswell.Atthesametime,thewideningsocial perspectivesoftheAmericanbusinesscommunityarelikelytoincreasetheinvolvementofbusinessexecutives insocialproblems,therebymergingprivateandpublicactivityonboththelocalandthenationallevels.This mightinturnmakeformoreeffectivesocialapplicationofthenewmanagementtechniques,which,unlike * bureaucratizedgovernmentalprocedures,haveprovedbothefficientandresponsive toexternalstimuli. Suchparticipatorypluralismmayprovereasonablyeffectiveinsubordinatingscienceandtechnologytosocial ends.Inthepastforsometheintroductionofthemachinewasthebeginningofutopiaforothersitmeantthe unleashingofevil.Similarly,todaytechnologyisseenbysomemodernconservativesasthebeginningofa happynewagebecauseitpromisestofreemanfrommanysocialproblems,whilefortheNewLefttechnetronics 2 isreplacingpropertyasthesymbolofsocialevil. Yetthecrucialissueremainstheendsto whichscienceand technologyareapplied,andasocietyinwhicheffectivecoordinationiscombinedwithdecentralizationismore likelytocrystallizethenecessarydiscussionandreflection.Scientificexpertisecanthenbemobilizedforsocial endswithoutgrantingscientistsadominatingpoliticalrolebecauseoftheirscientificcredentials. Participatory pluralismwill automaticallyensureneitherpoliticalwisdomnorsocialresponsibility,butitmightmakefora societythatmorenearlyapproachesboth. Anticipationofthesocialeffectsoftechnologicalinnovationoffersagoodexampleofthenecessary formsofcrossinstitutionalcooperation.Oneofthenation'smosturgentneedsisthecreationofavarietyof mechanismsthatlinknationalandlocalgovernments,academia,andthebusinesscommunity(theretheexample ofNASAmaybeespeciallyrewarding)inthetaskofevaluatingnotonlytheoperationaleffectsofthenew technologiesbuttheirculturalandpsychologicaleffects.Aseriesof nationalandlocalcouncilsnotrestricted toscientistsbutmadeupofvarioussocialgroups,includingtheclergywouldbeinkeepingwithboththeneed andtheemergingpatternofsocialresponsetochange Thetrendtowardtheprogressivebreakdownof sharp
*

Thisisespeciallyironicsincethegovernmenthassponsoredthetransferofmanytechnologicalinnovationsfromdefensetoprivate industry(seeR.LesterandG.Howick,AssessingTechnologyTransfer, NASA,Washington,D.C.,1966,especiallypp.42,48,76,and79). Atthesametime,the internal bureaucraticproceduresofmanygovernmentagencieslagintechnologicalinnovationascomparedwithmajor banksorcorporations.Bureaucraticrigidityappearstobeafunctionofsizeandhierarchy.Astudybysixteenleadingresearchadministrators reportedinthespringof1967thatsmall,independentcompanieshavebeenmuchmoreinnovativetechnologicallythanlargecompanies(see PeterDrucker,TheAgeofDiscontinuity, NewYork,1969,p.62.) Onthecomplexquestionoftheroleofscientistsinpolicymaking,commentsbyDonK.Pricein TheScientificEstate (Cambridge,Mass., 1965)andbySanfordA.LakoffandJ.StefanDuprein ScienceandtheNation:PolicyandPolitics (EnglewoodCliffs,N.J.,1962)are especiallypertinent. Thereisnoreasontobelievethatscientificcompetenceissufficientforrelevantjudgmentsconcerningallareasofsocialexistenceorpublic policy.Indeed,thoughsomewhatexaggerated,theobservationsofaFrenchsocialthinkeronthedangersofexcessivedeferencetothe nonscientificopinionsofscientistshavesomemerit: "Weareforcedtoconcludethatourscientistsareincapableofanybuttheemptiestplatitudeswhentheystrayfromtheirspecialties.Itmakes onethinkbackonthecollectionofmediocritiesaccumulatedbyEinsteinwhenhespokeofGod,thestate,peace,andthemeaningof life.It isclearthatEinstein,extraordinarymathematicalgeniusthathewas,wasnoPascalheknewnothingofpoliticalorhumanreality,or,infact, anythingatalloutsidehismathematicalreach.ThebanalityofEinstein'sremarksinmattersoutsidehisspecialtyisasastonishingashis geniuswithinit.Itseemsasthoughthespecializedapplicationofallone'sfacultiesinaparticularareainhibitstheconsiderationofthingsin general.EvenJ.RobertOppenheimer,whoseemsreceptivetoageneralculture,isnotoutsidethisjudgment.Hispoliticalandsocial declarations,forexample,scarcelygobeyondthelevelofthoseofthemaninthestreet.Andtheopinionsofthescientistsquotedby L'Express arenotevenonthelevelofEinsteinor Oppenheimer.Theirpomposities,infact,donotrisetotheleveloftheaverage.Theyare vaguegeneralitiesinheritedfromthenineteenthcentury,andthefactthattheyrepresentthefurthestlimitsofthoughtofourscientific worthiesmustbesymptomaticofarresteddevelopmentorofamentalblock.Particularlydisquietingisthegapbetweentheenormouspower theywieldandtheircriticalability,whichmustbeestimatedasnull"(Ellul,p.435).Forsomesuggestiveanalogies,seeR.Todd,"George Wald:TheMan,theSpeech,"TheNewYorkTimesMagazine,August17,1967. ThiswouldgobeyondthetasksettheNationalCommissiononTechnology,AutomationandEconomicProgress,authorizedbyCongress in1964,andalsoaddressitselftotheissueswithwhich,forexample,theBritishSocietyforSocialResponsibilityinSciencehasbeen grappling. Aneditorialin Science (August1,1969)on"TheControlofTechnology"errsinimplyingthattheabovemattershouldberestrictedto scientists.Socialscientists,theclergy,andhumanistsshouldalsobeinvolved,andtheSpecialCommissionontheSocialSciences, establishedin1968bytheNationalScienceBoard,couldwellbedrawnin.

100

distinctionsbetweenthepoliticalandsocialspheres,betweenpublicand privateinstitutions,willnotlenditself toeasyclassificationasliberal,conservative,orsocialistalltermsderivedfromadifferenthistoricalcontext butitwillbe amajorsteptowardtheparticipatorydemocracyadvocatedbysomeoftheNewLeftinthelate 1960s.Ironically,thisparticipatorydemocracyislikelytoemergethroughaprogressivesymbiosisofthe institutionsofsocietyandofgovernmentratherthan throughtheremediestheNewLefthadbeenadvocating: economicexpropriationandpoliticalrevolution,bothdistinctlyanachronisticremediesoftheearlierindustrial era. Theevolutionaryemergenceofparticipatorypluralismmaynotseemasufficientresponsetothose sectorsofAmericansocietythathavebecomeentirelyalienatedanditmayappearastoomuchchangetothose whohaveavestedinterestinthe statusquo. ButforthatlargebodyofAmericanswhoaccepttheconceptof gradualchangeandwhovalueproceduralorder,multiplepatternsofsocialinvolvementcouldprovidethe desiredcreativeoutletforasocietythatisincreasinglybecomingmorecomplexandexpertoriented.Inthat settingitisevenpossiblethatthepoliticalpartiesastraditionallyknowninAmericawillfurtherdeclinein importanceintheirstead,organizedlocal,regional,urban,professional,andotherinterestswillprovidethe focusforpoliticalaction,andshiftingnationalcoalitionswillformonanadhoc basisaroundspecificissuesof * nationalimport. Intheimmediatefuture,thepoliticsofstreetprotestarelikelytodominatethevisibledimensionsof Americanpoliticallife.Lessvisibleindeed,sometimestotallyobscuredbytheprevailingrhetoricaboutthe "repressivesociety"isthegradualprogresstowardanewdemocracyincreasinglybasedonparticipatory pluralisminmanyareasoflife.AssumingthatshorttermcrisesdonotdeflecttheUnitedStatesfromredefining the substanceofitsdemocratictradition,thelongrangeeffectofthepresenttransitionanditsturmoilswillbeto deepenandwidenthescopeofthedemocraticprocessinAmerica.

ChangeinCulturalFormation
TheevolutionarydevelopmentofAmericandemocracywillhavetobematchedby changesinthe processesofformingandshapingthecontentofitsnationalculture.Asinthecaseofpoliticalchange,cultural reformismorelikelytocomeaboutthroughevolutioninpartdeliberatelyencouragedandinpartstimulated byoverallsocialchangethanthroughprogrammaticengineering.Theelementofdeliberateandconscious choicemaybeevenmoreimportantherethaninthetransformationofcomplexinstitutionalarrangements, becauseinmodernsocietytheeducationalsystemandthemassmediahavebecometheprincipalsocialmeans fordefiningthesubstanceofanationalculture.ThisisparticularlytrueinAmericansociety,whichhas downgradedsuchalternativesourcesofcultureaschurchesandtraditionalcustoms. TheeducationalsystemhasaspecialsocialresponsibilityinregardtoblackAmericans.Herethe simultaneousneedsaretoenhancetheblackcitizen'sdignityandtoenlargehislongrangeopportunities.These needshaveoccasionallyclashed,butperhapstheshorttermremedywillbetocombinetheblackAmerican's questforhisseparateidentity(throughsuchinstitutionaldevicesasseparatecoursesandresidences)with massiveandscientificallyorientedremedialtraining.Thechallengetodayandprobablyforseveraldecadesto comeistohelptheblackAmericanskipthelateindustrialstageofAmerica'sdevelopment,andthiscannotbe doneunlesssensitivitytohispsychologicalneedsismatchedbyarecognitionofthenecessityforadisciplined, focusedintellectual effort.Thetwowillbehardtocombine,butitisinthisareathateventualprogressor disasterinAmerica'sracerelationswillbeshaped. Racialcalamitywillbeavoidedonlyifsocietyatlargedefinesmoreclearlythevaluesitseeks,is willingto createaresponsiveframeworktopromotethem,andispreparedtoinsistonrespectfororderly procedure.Nothingcouldbemoredestructivethanwideswingsfrompermissiveandguiltriddenacquiescence toanydemandmadebyblackextremistssuchacquiescencemerelystimulatesanescalationofextremismto insensitivepassivityoroppositiontoblackdemandsforafairshareofparticipationinAmericansociety.A massiveeducationaleffortisthecrucialfactor,buttobesuccessfulitmustbegearedto thelongrangethrustof Americansociety'sdevelopmentalneeds. TheunprecedentedspreadofmasseducationinAmericaraisesthemoregeneralquestionwhether mechanicallyextendingthedurationofeducationwillsufficetomeetboththepsychologicalandtechnicalneeds oftheemergingsociety.Thesocialscopeanddurationofcurrentmasseducationdiffersfromtheearlyindustrial emphasisonminimummassliteracyformales(andfromtheevenmoreelitistmedievalpatternofverylimited learningforveryfew).Contemporaryprogramsaimattheeducationofahighproportionofbothsexesandcall forperiodsofschoolinglastinganywherefromtentoalmosttwentyyears(inthecaseofmoreadvanced degrees).InAmericahighereducationiscarriedonwithinarelativelyselfcontainedorganizationalandeven socialframework,makingforaprotractedperiodofsemiisolationfromproblemsofsocialreality.Asaresult, bothorganizationallyandintermsofcontent,adivorcebetweeneducationandsocialexistencehastendedto develop,leadingtothealreadynotedemotionalandpsychicmanifestationsofstudentfrustrationand immaturity.
*

ThesecoalitionsarelesslikelytoformalongthetraditionaldividinglineofRepublicansandDemocratsorasmorerecentlyof conservativesandliberals,butrathertodivideaccordingtobasicphilosophicalattitudestowardtheproblemsofmodernlife.Ingreatly simplifiedterms,thehumanistsandidealistsononesidemightbepittedagainstthepragmatistsandmodernizersontheother.

101

Byextendingeducationonan intermittentbasisthroughoutthelifetimeofthecitizen,societywouldgo alongway towardmeetingthisproblem.Thedurationoftheselfcontainedandrelativelyisolatedphaseof initialeducationcouldthenbeshortened.Takingintoaccounttheearlierphysicalandsexualmaturationof youngpeopletoday,itcouldbemoregenerallypursuedwithinaworkstudyframework,anditshouldbe supplementedbyperiodicadditionaltrainingthroughoutmostofone'sactivelife. Agoodcasecanbemadeforendinginitialeducation(moreofwhichcouldbeobtainedinthehome throughelectronicdevices)somewherearoundtheageofeighteen.Thisformalinitialperiodcouldbefollowed * bytwoyearsofserviceinasociallydesirablecause thenbydirectinvolvementinsomeprofessionalactivity andbyadvanced,systematictrainingwithinthatarea andfinallybyregularperiodsofoneandeventuallyeven twoyearsofbroadening,"integrative"studyatthebeginningofeverydecadeofone'slife,somewhereuptothe ageofsixty. Forexample,medicalorlegaltrainingcouldbeginafteronlytwoyearsofcollege,thusboth shorteningthetimeneededtocompletethetrainingandprobablyalsoincreasingthenumberattractedintothese professions.Regularandformallyrequiredretrainingaswellasbroadeningcouldensueatregularintervals throughoutmostofone'sprofessionalcareer. Combininginitialspecializationwithasubsequentbroadeningofphilosophicalandscientifichorizons wouldsomewhatcounteractthepresenttrend,whichmakesincreasedspecializationandrisingprofessional standing gohandinhand.Thisencouragesanarrownessofgeneraloutlook.Thetrendcouldbegraduallyre versedbyasituationinwhichspecializationattheageofgreatestabsorptivecapabilitywouldbefollowedby moreintellectualintegrationatastageofincreasedpersonalmaturity.Suchanapproachwouldencouragethe gradualemergenceofanintegrative,modernizingelitethatwouldshowgreaterconcernwithsociety's underlyinghumanevaluesinanageinwhichintensivescientificspecializationisfraughtwithdangersof intellectualfragmentation. Theformaleducationalsystemhasbeenrelativelyslowinexploitingthenewopportunitiesfor supplementaryhomebasededucationthroughtelevisionconsolesandotherelectronicdevices.Ithasalsobeen suspiciousofthegrowinginclinationofnongovernmentalorganizationstodeveloptheirownlearningand trainingprograms.Indifferentways,however,boththeblackcommunityandbusinessarebecomingmore involvedineducation,forpsychologicalaswell asforprofessionalreasons. Greatermultiplicityineducational trainingwillmakeforamorepluralisticnationalcommunity,andtheincreasinginvolvementofbusiness companiesineducationmayleadtoamorerapidadaptationofthelatesttechniquesandscientificknowledge to theeducationalprocess.Americanbusinessand,toalesserextent,thegovernmenthavealreadyundertaken extensiveprogramsofmanagerial"retooling"andretraining,therebymovingtowardtheintermittenteducational pattern. Changeineducationalproceduresandphilosophyshouldalsobeaccompaniedbyparallelchangesin thebroadernationalprocessesbywhichvaluesaregeneratedanddisseminated.GivenAmerica'sroleasaworld disseminatorofnewvaluesandtechniques,thisisbothanationalandaglobalobligation.Yetnoothercountry haspermitteditsmassculture,taste,dailyamusement,and,mostimportant,theindirecteducationofitschildren tobealmostexclusivelythedomainofprivatebusinessandadvertising,orpermittedbothstandardsoftasteand theintellectualcontentofculturetobedefinedlargelybyasmallgroupofentrepreneurslocatedinone metropolitancenter.Americantelevision,inwhichaculturalmonopolyisexercisedbyarelativelysmallgroup, reflectstheinsensitivityofthecommunicationsprocesstothetastesandphilosophicalvaluesofmuchof ** America.
*

Thiscausecouldbeeithernationalorinternational,publiclyorprivatelytackled.Itwouldbeinkeepingwiththehumanitarianidealismof theyoungnottolimitsuchservicetonationalcauses.Onegoodwaytohandlethematterwouldbetomaintainalistofacceptable humanitarianactivities,serviceonbehalfofwhichwouldbeanacceptableequivalentformilitaryduty. ThiswouldgobeyondthetasksetfortheNationalCommissiononTechintegrativeneedsofthemodernage.Itwouldthuscombine sciencewithphilosophybutnolongeractasanintellectualcafeteria,offeringstudiesrangingfromphysicaleducationthroughclassics,from "soul"coursestothelatestspecializedsciences.Ineffect,therolesofthe"junior"collegeandoftheuniversitywouldbecomeseparatein timeandplace,probablytotheadvantageofbothinstitutions.Thiswouldpermitconcentrationonthelargersocialquestionsandkeephigher educationfrombeinganaristocraticprocessatthesametime,itwouldallaysomeofthedangersinherentintheillusionthataneducated citizenryiscreatedbysimplyrunningalotofpeoplethroughtheeducationalmill. Inaddition,thetraditionaltitlesoflearning,suchas"doctorofphilosophy,"implyaterminaleducationalprocessandreflectthesituationof anearlierstageinsocialhistory.Sincelearningwillbecomeacontinuous,lifetimeprocessthatinvolvesalmosttheentirecommunity, degreesbecomeasymbolicanachronismandshouldbedrasticallyreclassifiedtoindicatemoreaccuratelythevariousstagesofspecialized andgeneralizedknowledge. "Oneoftheparadoxesofthefutureisthatwhileanincreasingnumberofmanagerialdecisionswillbehandledbyautomaticdata processing,buttressedbyclearandswiftcommunicationsnetworks,theintelligentdirectionandcoordinationoflargescalesystemswill placeanevengreaterpremiumthanatpresentupon thewise,artful,andbroadlyexperiencedgeneralmanager inorganizations characterizedbyoperationaldecentralization.Inshort,thepropositionthateffectivedecentralizationcanoccuronlywhereorganizational centralizationhasbecomeefficientwillhavebecomeincreasingly recognized,notasaparadox,butasalogicalreality"(TheUnitedStates andtheWorldinthe 1985 Era, p.44). Forexample,OlinCorporation,notinginanadvertisementthat"thereisnogrowthpotentialinignorance,"hasinstitutedliteracyandhigh schooltrainingprogramsinthreeofitsplants.Othermajorcorporationshavesimilartrainingprograms. ** ...broadcastinghasimposeduponAmericansocietywhatinthesupremecivicsensemaybeafatalcontradiction.Theextensionof communicationshouldbeanextensionofdemocracy.Yetwhiletheparticipatorybaseofdemocracyhasbeenbroadening,theownershipand controlofthemeansofcommunicationhavenarrowed. "Itcouldbesaidindeedthatfarfrombeinganexpressionofmajoritydesire,asthenetworkssay,televisionprogramsaretheimpositionofa

102

Risingpublicdissatisfactionwiththisstateofaffairsindicatesthatperhapssomechangehastocomeinthisfield aswell.Thegeographicaldecentralizationanddispersalofthetelevisionindustryintomorenumerousunits,the separationofbroadcastingfromprogramproduction,andthefurtherextensionofeducationalprogrammingwill probablybesharplyopposedbyexisting interestsifpastAmericanexperiencecanserveasarelevantguide, changewillcomebyattritionandpiecemealreform, ratherthanbywholesalereadjustment.Here,again, scientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentsmaybecomethehandmaidensofconstructivechangetheymaymake possible(throughhomevideotapes,homeoperatedlenses,closedchannelprogramming)fargreaterdiversity thanistodayavailable,aswellasmoreextensiveexploitationoftheaudiovisualmediabymoreinstitutionsand organizations.Insteadoflimitingintellectualhorizons,televisioncouldbecomea Culturalchangeinoursocietymayalsobespurredbythegrowingfemalerebellion,acceleratedby educationandnewsexualmores.Themassiveentranceofwomenintotheprofessions,intoexecutivepositions, andintopoliticsisprobablyonlyagenerationaway,andthereisalreadyabundantevidenceofmounting restlessnessbecauseofcurrentinequalitiesofopportunity.Suchincreasedfeminineassertivenesscouldspill overintoAmericansociety'sculturalfront,enhancingsomewhatthegeneralsocialinterestinculturalgrowth andstandards.

RationalHumanism
ThetechnologicalthrustandtheeconomicwealthoftheUnitedStatesnowmakeitpossibletogivethe conceptoflibertyandequalityabroadermeaning,goingbeyondtheproceduralandexternaltothepersonaland innerspheresofman'ssocialexistence.Byfocusingmoredeliberatelyonthesequalitativeaspectsoflife, Americamayavoidthedepersonalizingdangers inherentintheselfgeneratingbutphilosophicallymeaningless mechanizationofenvironmentandbuildasocialframeworkforasynthesisofman'sexternalandinner dimensions. Suchasynthesismayeventuallyresultfromthecurrentintenseconflictbetweentheirrational personalismofthe"humanists"andtheimpersonalrationalityofthe"modernizers."Theformergroup,sourceof muchoftherhetoricoftheliterarycommunity,thestudentactivists,andthedoctrinaireliberals,partakesofthe traditionofskepticismanddisbeliefthatplayedsuchavitalrole inoverthrowingthereligiousandphilosophical holdofpreindustrialAmericaonthevaluesofindustrialAmericaitseekstofortifythistraditionbyanew emphasisonemotionandfeeling.GivenitsDadaiststyleanditsLudditeinspiredhistoricalposture,itisunlikely thatthiscampwilllongremainvital.ThepotentialtransformationoftheNewLeftintotheViolentLeftwill certainlynotenhanceitsappealtotheAmericanpublic.Thelattergroup,moretypicalofthenewbusiness executives,thegovernmentalcommercialestablishment,andthescientificorganizationmen,seekstocombine selfinterestwithadetachedemphasisonrationalistinnovationsinceitfailstoprovideasatisfactoryemotional * orphilosophicalrationaleforeither,italienatesthe moreidealisticyoungpeople. TheclashbetweenthesetwoorientationsisdestructiveandthreateningtoAmericanliberaldemocracy. Itfragmentstheremnantsoftheconsensusofthe industrialageandpolarizesarticulatepublicopinion.Yetit alsoholdsthepromiseofanewperspectivethatisbettersuitedtotheneedsoftheemergingAmericansociety, sinceitmovesbeyondtheincreasinglyirrelevantframeworkthatnowconfinesmodernman'soutlook.Thisnew perspectiveinvolvesgrowingrecognitionthatman'spropensityforscientificinnovationcannotberestrained thataslongasman'smindfunctions,scientificinnovationwillbeoneofitsexpressions.Butitalsoinvolvesa heightenedawarenessthataslongasmanconceivesofhimselfasadistinctivebeing,idealismwillbethecentral modeofexpressinghisspirit.Theimperativeneedforbothinnovationandidealismisthusstimulatinga rationalisthumaneoutlookthatisgraduallysupplantingboththeliberalskepticismofsomehumanistsandthe conservativesocialindifferenceofsomemodernizers. Thisrationalhumanismisexpressedinseveralways:first,inanemerginginternationalconsciousness thatmakessomanyAmericansandAmericaninstitutionsgobeyondpurelynationalisticconcernsandbecome deeplyinvolvedinglobalproblemsofhumangrowthandnourishment,andispromptinginAmericanyouthsuch aconstructivepreoccupationwithproblemsofecologysecond, inagrowingtendencyinspiteofastilldeeply ingrainedanticommunismtoviewinternationalproblemsashumanissuesandnotaspoliticalconfrontations betweengoodandevilthird,inastrongpublicidealismthatisfreeofaUtopian,impatient,and oftenintolerant desiretoresolvealloutstandingdilemmasimmediately.Inaddition,itcanalsobeseeninthefactthat Americans,insteadoftryingtofleetheproblemsofscience,areattemptingtobalancetheirfascinationwith scienceandtheirrelianceonitasatoolfordealingwithhumanproblemsbyamoreintenseconcernwiththe personalqualitiesoflifeandbyaquestformorephilosophicalandreligiouslyecumenicaldefinitionsofhuman
socialminorityonthemajority,theminorityconsistingofthefiftytopadvertisers,thethreenetworks,andadozenorsoadvertising agencies"(AlexanderKendrick,PrimeTime:TheLife ofEdwardR.Murrow, Boston,1969,pp.1213). * Modernpsychologyincreasinglyrecognizesthat.thenonconcrete,moreabstractqualitiesoflife,suchasgoodness,aestheticbeauty,and morality,arebecomingmoreandmoreimportantinsatisfyingindividualwantsinmodernsociety(see,forexample,AbrahamMaslow, MotivationandPersonality, NewYork,1954,and TowardaPsychologyofBeing, Princeton,196a).However,thequestforthesemore abstractandemotionalsatisfactionsoftentakesludicrousforms.ThelatesixtieshaveseeninAmericaaproliferationofvariousinstitutesand seminarsinwhichbusinessmenandothersengageinspecial"sensitivity"seances,exposethemselvesto"brainwaveconditioning,"undertake yogaexercisesandsustained"meditation,"andthelike.Thesefadsreflectthefracturingofthebroader,moreintegrativeframeworksof belief,asnotedinourdiscussioninPartII.

103

nature.Thissuggeststhelikelihoodofarevivalofreligiosityofamorepersonal,noninstitutionalnature.Finally, theemergingrationalhumanismishistoricallycontingentinthesensethatitdoesnotinvolveaswasthecase withnineteenthcenturyideologyuniversallyprescriptiveconceptsofsocialorganizationbutstressescultural andeconomicglobaldiversity.Insodoing,rationalhumanismislikelytobehistoricallymorerelevantthanwas thecasewithearlierresponsestosocialdilemmas.Unliketheindustrialage,whencomplexityandhistorical discontinuityinducedideologicalflightsofthemindintoatavismorfuturisticUtopias,inthetechnetronicage thegreateravailabilityofmeanspermitsthedefinitionofmoreattainableends,thusmakingforalessdoctrinaire andamoreeffectiverelationshipbetween"whatis"and"whatoughttobe." Thegreatrevolutionsofthenineteenthandtwentiethcenturiessoughtbothlibertyandequality,but evenintheabsenceofracialconflictitwasfoundthatthetwoweredifficulttocombineinanageinwhichthe traditionalinstitutionsofareligious,aristocratic,andagriculturalerawereclashingwiththeeffectsofskeptical rationalism,legalisticdemocracy,nascentsocialconsciousness,andtheneedsofadevelopingurbanindustrial society.InAmericathelinkageoflibertyandequalitywasespeciallyhinderedbydeeplyembedded fundamentalistreligiousvaluesthatwerereinforcedbytheeverwideninggapbetweentheprogressingwhite communityandtheartificiallyarrestedblackcommunity.Inequalitybecameaselffulfillingprophecy,aswellas aneconomicnecessitytotheindustriallydevelopingNorth. ThepositivepotentialofthethirdAmericanrevolutionliesinitspromisetolinklibertywithequality. Thislinkageisaprocess,andwillnotbeattainedallatonce.Indeed,duringthenextseveraldecadesreversals andevenincreasedtensionsaretobeexpected.Nevertheless,thoughfrequentlyobscuredbypassionate polemics,theemergingrationalhumanismispartofthe"culturalrevolution"thatAmericahasbeen experiencing,aculturalrevolutionmoreenduringanddeeperthantheonethatinitiatedtheterm.Linkedto politicalreform,thecurrentculturalrevolutioncouldgraduallyenlargethescopeofpersonalfreedomby increasingthesenseofselffulfillmentofanunprecedentednumberofcitizensandgivegreatermeaningto equalitybymakingknowledgethebasisforsocialandracialegalitarianism.Itcouldcreatethepreconditionsfor asocially creativeandindividuallygratifyingsocietythatwouldinevitablyhaveaconstructiveworldroleto play.

2.InternationalProspects
Tensionisunavoidableasmanstrivestoassimilatethenewintotheframeworkoftheold.Foratimethe establishedframeworkresilientlyintegratesthenewbyadaptingitinamorefamiliarshape.Butatsomepoint theoldframeworkbecomesoverloaded.Thenewinputcannolongerberedefinedintotraditionalforms,and eventuallyitassertsitselfwithcompellingforce.Today,thoughtheoldframeworkofinternationalpolitics withtheirspheresofinfluence,militaryalliancesbetweennationstates,thefictionofsovereignty,doctrinal conflictsarisingfromnineteenthcenturycrisesisclearlynolongercompatible withreality. Indeed,itisremarkablehowrapidlythedominantmoodshavechangedduringthelasttwodecades. The1950sweretheeraofcertainty.ThetwosidesCommunistandWesternfacedeachotherinasettingthat pittedconvictionagainstconviction.StalinistManichaeansconfrontedDulles'smissionaries.Thatmoodquickly gavewaytoanother,withKhrushchevandKennedyservingastransitionstoaneraofconfusion.Dissensionin thecommunistworldpromptedanideologicalcrisis,whiletheWestincreasinglybegantoquestionitsown valuesandrighteousness.Communistcynicsconfrontedliberalskeptics. Thereareindicationsthatthe1970swillbedominatedbygrowingawarenessthatthetimehascomefor acommonefforttoshapeanewframeworkforinternationalpolitics,aframeworkthatcanserveasaneffective channelforjointendeavors.Yetitmustberecognizedthattherewillbenorealglobalcooperationuntilthereis fargreaterconsensusonitsprioritiesandpurposes: Isittoenhance man'smaterialwellbeingandhisintellectualdevelopment?Iseconomicgrowththe answer,orisamassiveinternationaleducationalefforttobethepointofdeparture?Shouldhealthhavepriority? Howispersonalwellbeingrelatedtotheperhapslessimportantbutmoreeasilymeasuredgrossnational product?Isthereanecessaryconnectionbetweenscientificadvanceandpersonalhappiness? Thereisalreadywidespreadagreementaboutthedesirabilityofcuttingarmsbudgetsanddeveloping international peacekeepingforces.Thereisalsoamoreselfconsciousawarenessofman'sinherent 3 aggressivenessandoftheneedtocontrolit. Totallydestructiveweaponsmaketheeffectsofconflict incalculableandthusreducethelikelihoodofamajorwar.Here, again,anemergingglobalconsciousnessis forcingtheabandonmentofpreoccupationswithnationalsupremacyandaccentuatingglobalinterdependence.In theUnitedStatesthisgrowinginternationalawarenesshassometimestakentheformofgreatersensitivitytothe influenceofthe"militaryindustrialcomplex,"4 andithaseffectivelyobstructedtheunlimiteddevelopmentof biologicalchemicalweaponryanditsuseincombat.Ithasalsostimulatedpressuresforareexaminationof defenserequirements,whileinotheradvancedcountries,particularlyinJapanandWesternEurope,ithas promptedstrongpacifistmovements. Nonetheless,arealisticassessmentcompelstheconclusionthattherewillbenoglobalsecurity arrangementintheforeseeablefuture.Themostthatcanbeexpectedandeffectivelysoughtisawideningof armscontroltreaties,someunilateralrestraintsondefensespending,andsomeexpansioninUNpeacekeeping machinery.Theconflictsbetweennationsarestillveryrealreadingsof worldchangestilldiffersharply,and 104

nationalaspirationsremaindivergent.Moreover,unlikethesituationinJapan,WesternEurope,andtheUnited States,neitherintheSovietUnionnorinChinaisthereanypublicdiscussionofweaponsdevelopmentand defensespending.Secrecyandcensorshipimposerestraintsonviewsthatdivergefromtheofficialposition, and thuslimittheinfluenceofagrowingglobalconsciousnessonpolicychoicesopentotheleadersofthesestates. Thepictureissomewhatmoreambiguousinthefieldsofeconomicandeducationalscientific development.Allmajorcountriesnowaccepttheprinciplethattheyoughttoaidthelessdevelopedcountries. Thisisanewmoralposition,anditisanimportantcomponentofthenewglobalconsciousness.Thoughnations stillasserttheirsovereigntyinfixingthescaleofaidextended(mostmakelessthanonepercentoftheirGNP available),theyhaveineffectcreatedabindingprecedent:theextensionofaidhasbecomeanimperative.It seemslikelythatintheyearstocome,despitepersistingconflictsamongstates,economicaidwillgrowinscale andbeusedlessandlessasavehicleofpoliticalinfluence.Atthesametime,however,shortofaverymajor crisis,itseemsunlikelythataidwillbeforthcominginamountssufficienttooffsetthethreateningprospects discussedinPartI. Insomerespectstechnologicalscientificdevelopmentsaugurmorepromisefortherapidglobalspread ofeducationalprogramsandofnewtechniques.Televisionsatellitesarealreadymakingregionaleducational programspossible(asinCentralAmerica),andtherehasbeenprogressinsettingupregionaltechnological institutes(thismighteventuallyreducethebraindrain,whichiscausedinpart bythetemptationsinherentin residentstudiesinthemoreadvancedcountries).TheDevelopmentAssistanceCommitteeofOECDoffersthe potentialforasystematicapproachtomeetingtheeducationalneedsofthelessdevelopedcountries,andunlike 5 UNESCOitisnotsubjecttopoliticalpressuresfromthem. Suchanapproachwouldbeconsistentwiththe emergenceofamorecooperativecommunityofthedevelopednations,oneabletoadoptacommon developmentstrategy.ThespreadofEnglishasaglobalscientificlanguageisacceleratingtheformationofa globalscientificfamily,increasinglymobileandinterchangeable. Yetthisprogresscouldbevitiatedinmanycountriesbyasocialincapacitytodigestandabsorbthe positivepotentialinherentineducationalandscientificgrowth.Theirinadequateeconomicresourcesonly marginallyaugmentedbyreasonablyforeseeableforeignaidmayevencausesomepositivechangesto backfire,promptingnotsocialadvancebutcostlyconflict,notpolicyinnovationbutpoliticalparalysis.Indeed, ourstilllimitedknowledgeofthefactorsinducingsocialdevelopment,andoftheroleplayedinthat developmentbyreligion,culture,andpsychology,hinderstheformulationofaneffectivestrategyforthe * disseminationoftechnicalknowhowandfortheapplicationofmaterialaid. Inthissetting,whichcombinesrudimentsoforderandelementsofchaos,twogeneralprospects,both moreimmediatelyrelevanttoUnitedStatesforeignpolicy,seemprobable:first,theThirdWorld,thoughitwill obviouslycontinuetoexperienceturbulentchanges,isnotverylikelytobesweptbyacommonrevolutionary wavesecond,theSovietUnionwillintheforeseeablefutureremaintoostrongexternallynottobeaglobalrival tothe UnitedStatesbuttooweakinternallytobeitsglobalpartner.

TheRevolutionaryProcess
Theconceptofaninternationalrevolutioninspiredbyacommonideologyhadsomemeaningwhenthe industrialrevolutionseemedtoindicatethatcertainformsofsocialorganizationandofsocialcrisishadageneral application.Thatviewcombinedauniversalintellectualperspectivewithageographicallyhistorical parochialism.Itassumed,inpartbecauseinformationaboutworldprocesseswasrelativelylimited,thata commonglobalframeworkcouldbepostulatedonthebasisofthehistoricalexperienceofafewWestern countries.Itisnowincreasinglyevidentthatsocialconditions,aswellasthewayinwhichscienceand technologyaresociallyapplied,varyenormously,andthatthisvarietyincludesverysubtlebutimportant nuancesofcultural,religious,andhistorictradition,inadditionto economicandtechnicalfactors. Moreover,inRussiaandinChinatherevolutionaryintelligentsiaofthelatenineteenthandearly twentiethcenturieswasitselfintheforefrontoftheprocessofmodernization.Itrepresentedthemostadvanced segmentsofsociety,andhenceapoliticalvictorybyitinherentlyinvolvedahistoricalstepforwardforthe societyasawhole.Thisisnolongerthecase.Therevolutionaryintelligentsiainthelessdevelopedcountries,to saynothingofitsvicariousmiddleclassintellectualequivalentsintheUnitedStates,oftenrepresentsasocial anachronism.Asfarasthemodernizationprocessisconcerned,thisintelligentsiahasbeenleftbehindby developmentsinscienceandtechnology,inwhichitislargely"illiterate." Itispossible,therefore,thatinsomecountries,perhapseventhemoremodernones,theseanachronistic intelligentsiasmayevensucceed,byclingingtoessentiallyaristocraticandantiindustrialvalues,ineffectively blockingthemodernizationoftheirsocietiesbyinsistingthatitbepostponeduntilafteranideologicalrevolution hastakenplace.Inthissense,thetechnetronicrevolutioncouldpartiallybecomeaselflimitingphenomenon: disseminatedbymasscommunications,itcreatesitsownantithesisthroughtheimpactofmasscommunications
*

ThisiswhythereisspecialmeritintheNationalPlanningAssociation'sproposal(1969)thataTechnicalAssistanceand DevelopmentResearchInstitutebeestablishedinWashingtontoprovidetechnicalassistancetounderdevelopednationsand tomakeabroadgaugedstudyoftheproblemsconnectedwithdevelopment.

Forearlierdiscussionoftheprospectsofrevolutionarysuccess,seepp.48,119,188191,and248249.

105

onsomesectorsoftheintelligentsia.Insomeofthedevelopingcountriesthismighteventuallypitthetraditional humanistlegalisttrainedintelligentsia,whoaremorereceptivetodoctrinalappeals,againsttheyounger,more sociallyconcernedandinnovativeofficers,engineers,andstudents,whohavecombinedtoeffectamoderni zationthatisindigenousandsociallyradical,thoughprogrammaticallyeclectic. InLatinAmericathemoreextremereformsmaybemorereminiscentofPeronismandfascismthanof 6 communism.By1970thestudentpopulationwillbeapproximatelyonemillion, thuscreatinganambitiousand politicallyvolatilebaseforreform.Inaddition,boththeoppositionofLatinAmericangovernmentstoUnited 7 Stateseconomicandpoliticalinfluence andtheirinclinationtoundertakeradicaldomesticreformsmaybe expectedtoincrease,buttodosowithinaframeworkthatcombinesamoresociallyresponsibleCatholicism withnationalism,inasettingofconsiderablenationaldiversity.Thiswillproduceahighlydifferentiatedpattern ofchange,butevenitsradicalmanifestationsarenotlikelytobemodeledoncommunistcountries,especially sincetherelativeculturalsophisticationoftheLatinAmericanelitesreducestheappealofthestodgyEastern EuropeanorSovietmodels.Theofficercorps,composedofsociallyradicalandtechnologicallyinnovative youngerofficers,ismorelikelytobethesourceofrevolutionarychangethanthelocalcommunistparties,and LatinAmericandiscontentwillbegalvanizednotbyideologybutbycontinuingantiYankeeismpureand simple. Inotherpartsoftheglobesimilarsocialcombinationsprobablywillresultinregimesthatwill compensatefortheweaknessofindigenousreligiousandintellectualtraditionsbybeingdoctrinallyoriented. IraqiandSudanesecoupsofthelate1960s,carriedoutbyalliancesofofficersandintellectuals,willprobablybe repeatedelsewhereinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Thereis,however,somereasonforskepticismconcerningthe genuinenessanddepthoftheideologicalcommitmentofthesenewregimes.Someoftheirideologyisshapedby extraneousfactors(thequestionofIsraelandoftheSovietattitude)someismerelycurrentlyfashionable * rhetoricmuchofitishighlyvolatileandsubjecttodrasticchanges. Doubtless,theseregimeswillbeassisted andexploitedbytheSovietsandtheChinese.(Thelatter,forexample,havealreadymadepoliticalinroadsinto EastAfrica.)Evenso,itwillstillbemoreamatteroftacticalcooperationthanofactualcontrolanda common strategicpolicy. Similarly,inSouthandSoutheastAsiarevolutionarypatternsarelikelytohaveanessentially indigenousanddifferentiatedcharacter.Itisquitepossiblethatthetwolargepoliticalunits Indiaand Pakistanwhichcombineavarietyofdisparateeconomicandethnicentities,maysplitup.Thiswillbe especiallylikelyasthepresentelites,whoseinternalunitywasforgedbythestruggleagainsttheBritish,fade fromthescene.ThewaningoftheCongressPartyinIndiahasbeenaccompaniedbyintensifyingethnicstresses andbythepolarizationofpoliticalopinions.ShouldtheIndianUnionbreakdown,southernTamilseparatism, probablyleftwingradicalinorientation,wouldbecontestedbynorthernHindurightradicalism, perhapsmore religiouslyorientedeachwouldtendtointensifythedoctrinalandindigenousdistinctivenessoftheother.As happenedearlierinChina,anytendencytowardcommunismthatmightresultfromsuchaconfrontationwould soonbeculturallyabsorbedandperhapsoverwhelmedbytheweightofeconomicbackwardness. InChinatheSinoSovietconflicthasalreadyacceleratedtheinescapableSinificationofChinese communism.Thatconflictshatteredtherevolution'suniversalperspectiveandperhapsevenmoreimportant detachedChinesemodernizationfromitscommitmenttotheSovietmodel.Hence,whateverhappensintheshort run,inyearstocomeChinesedevelopmentwillprobablyincreasinglysharetheexperienceofothernationsin theprocessofmodernization.Thismaybothdilutetheregime'sideologicaltenacityandleadtomoreeclectic experimentationinshapingtheChineseroadtomodernity. ManyoftheupheavalsintheThirdWorldwill unavoidablyhaveastrongantiAmericanbias.ThisislikelytobeparticularlytruewhereAmericanpresenceand powerhastraditionallybeenmostvisible.InareasneartheSovietUnionandChina,however,antiSovietand antiChineseattitudesarelikelytopredominateinthelongrun,irrespectiveofthecharacteroftheinternalre formsandoftheexternalcomplexionoftherulingregimes.Thisagainhighlightsthepointthattherevolutionary processassuchwillnotnecessarilydeterminetheforeignpolicystanceofthenewelites,whichismorelikelyto beshapedbyacombinationoftraditionalantipathies,currentfears,anddomesticpoliticalneeds. Moreover,thebasicorientationoftheneweliteswillmoreandmorerespondtotheintellectualimpact ofdomesticchangesinthemoreadvancedworld,changesdirectlyandpersonallyvisibletotheseelitesthrough travel,study,andglobalmassmedia.Thisintimacywithlifeabroadwillfurtherreducetheimportanceof integrativeideologies,whichhadpreviouslyprovidedasubstituteforaclearvisionof thefutureandtheoutside world.Ideologicaluniformitywastheprescriptionforremakingaworldthatwasbothdistantandlargely unknown,butproximityandglobalcongestionnowdictaterevolutionarydiversity. Accordingly,therealvaluesasdistinguishedfromtherhetoric oftheaspiringelitesofthe developingnationswillbeshapedbytangibledevelopmentsratherthanbyabstractgeneralizations.Thesuccess oftheUnitedStatesinshapingaworkable,multiracialdemocracywhilepioneeringinscienceandtechnology, theabilityofEuropeandJapantoovercomethepsychologicalandsocialstressesofmaturemodernity,and
*

Moreover,theseregimeshavedifficultyinmovingintowhatHuntingtonhascalledthesecondphaseofarevolution:"Acomplete revolution,however,alsoinvolvesasecondphase:thecreationandinstitutionalizationofanewpoliticalorder.Thesuccessfulrevolution combinesrapidpoliticalmobilizationandrapidpoliticalinstitutionalization.Notallrevolutionsproduceanewpoliticalorder.Themeasure ofhowrevolutionaryarevolutionisistherapidityandthescopeoftheexpansionofpoliticalparticipation.Themeasureofhowsuccessfula revolutionisistheauthorityandstabilityoftheinstitutionstowhichitgivesbirth"(Huntington,p.266).

106

last,butnotleastthedegreetowhichtheSovietUnionbreaksawayfromthedoctrinalorthodoxythatinhibits itssocialdevelopmentwillbecriticallyimportantinshapingtheoutlookofThirdWorldleaders.

USA/USSR:LessIntensive,MoreExtensiveRivalry
TheextenttowhichAmericansviewrevolutionarychangesabroadasautomaticallyinimicaltotheirinterests reinforcesthe extenttowhichtheseseembeneficialtotheSovietsandcanbefittedintoaglobalcommunist frameworkconversely,theextenttowhichAmericaviewsthesechangesinaneutrallightdiminishesthe intrinsicattractionoftheSovietmodelforThirdWorldrevolutionariesandencouragesindigenousfactorsto surfacemorerapidly.TheSovietattractionhasalreadybeenweakenedbytheappearanceofstatesmoremilitant thantheSovietUnionandofgroupsmoreactivistthantheproSovietcommunistparties. TheSovietappealhas alsodeclinedbecauseinternalSovietbureaucratizationanddogmaticrestraintsonintellectualcreativityand socialinnovationhavemadetheSovietUnionthemostconservativepoliticalandsocialorderofthemore * advancedworld. AmericanSovietrivalryishencelikelytobecomelessideologicalincharacter,thoughitmaybecome moreextensivegeographicallyandmoredangerousintermsofthepowerinvolved.Increaseddirectcontacts betweenthetwonations,restraintsimposedbymutualrecognitionofthedestructivenessofpresentweapons systems,andlessenedideologicalexpectationsfortheThirdWorldcouldmakeAmericanSovietrelationsmore stable.Nevertheless,moreandmoreareasontheglobecouldbecometheobjectsofmovesandcountermovesif thegrowthinlongrangeSovietmilitaryforces,particularlyconventionalair andsealiftcapabilities,extends AmericanSovietrivalrytoareaspreviouslyconsideredbeyondtheSovietreach.InstabilityintheThirdWorld couldtempteitherstatetoemployitspowertooffsetorpreempttheother,therebycreatingsituationsanalogous totheFashoda incident,whichattheendofthenineteenthcenturyalmostcausedawarbetweenFranceand 8 Britainatatimewhenthesepowersweremoving(andcontinuedtomove)towardaEuropeanaccommodation. Onthewhole,closecooperationbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnionseemsaveryunlikely prospectinthecomingdecade.Thisisonlypartiallyduetothedifferentideologicalandpoliticalcharacterofthe twocountries.AcommunistAmericawouldinallprobabilityremainarivaloftheSovietUnion,justas CommunistChinasoonbecameone.Givenitssizeandpower,ademocraticandcreative.SovietUnionmightbe anevenmorepowerfulcompetitorfortheUnitedStatesthanisthepresentbureaucraticallystagnantand doctrinallyorthodoxSovietsystem.Moreover,democraticnationsarenotnecessarilypacifistnations,as Americanhistoryamplydemonstrates.Rivalrybetweennationsisinherentinaninternationalsystemthat functionswithoutglobalconsensustheresultofcenturiesoftheconditioningofman'soutlookbycompetitive nationsthatinsistedontheirindividualsuperiority,andparticularvalues.Suchrivalry isnotlikelytobe terminatedbyanythingshortofafundamentalreconstructioninthenatureofrelationsbetweennationsand henceinthecharacterofnationalsovereigntyitself. Atpresent,theformationofanewcooperativeinternationalpatternis gettinglittlehelpfromtheSoviet Union,inspiteofthefactthatitconsidersitselfintheforefrontofhistoricalprogressandwasuntilrecentlythe standardbearerofanideologythathadcutacrosstraditionalnationallines.Theironyofhistory issuchthat todaytheSovietUnionhasaforeignpolicythatisintenselynationalisticandadomesticpolicythatcallsforthe dominationofnonRussianminoritiesitactivelycampaignsagainstregionalpatternsofinternational cooperation,grantsadisproportionatelysmallamountofhelptothelessdevelopednations(roughlytenpercent ofUnitedStatesforeignaid),andrejectsajointexplorationofspace(cloakingitsowneffortsinutmostsecrecy). Indeed,oneoftheunanticipatedeffectsoftheSinoSovietdisputemaybeahardeningoftheSoviet outlookandamoreparanoidviewoftheworld.ThoughSovietleaderswanttoavoidatwofrontconfrontation andarehencepushedtowardaccommodationwitheithertheWestortheEast,theveryscale oftheChinese challengeintensifiestheirfears,putsapremiumonmilitarypreparedness,andstimulatesanintense preoccupationwiththesacrednessoffrontiers. EquallyimportantbutlessgenerallyrecognizedasafactorininhibitingtheSovietUnionfromseeking morebindingformsofinternationalcooperationisthedomesticweaknessandinsecurityofSovietleaders.Even fiftyyearsafteritsinception,thepoliticalsystemtheyheadstilllackselementarylegitimacy:itsrulingelite reliesheavilyoncoercionandcensorshiptoretainitspower,whichisacquirednotbyregular,constitutional proceduresbutthroughprotracted,bureaucraticinfighting.(Thestrugglesforsuccessionareacaseinpoint.) BecauseofthedoctrinalincapacityoftheSovietpoliticalsystemtorespondtotheinternalneedsofsocial innovation,broadaccommodationwiththeWest,carryingwithittheacknowledgmentthattheLeninist dichotomicvisionoftheworldwhichinturnjustifiestheLeninistconceptoftherulingpartyisnolonger
*

SomeSovietscientists(particularlyKapitsaandSakharov)havealreadywarnedoftheresultinglongruncosttoSovietscientificand intellectualgrowth. ToappreciateSovietfears,onewouldhavetoimagineasituationinwhichtheUnitedStateswasconfrontedbyeighthundred million MexicanswhohadnucleararmsandrocketsandwhowereloudlyinsistingthattheUnitedStateshadseizedvastexpansesofMexican territory,thattheAmericansystemwasinherentlyevil,andthattheAmericangovernmentwastheirenemy.Suchasituationwoulddoubtless stimulateintensefearsintheAmericanpublic.SovietapprehensivenessisfurtherincreasedbythefactthatSiberiarelativelyundeveloped anduninhabitedservesasamagnettotheChinesemasses,andthatRussoChineseterritorialarrangementsareofahistoricallydubious character.

107

relevant,wouldinevitablycausefarreachinginternalpoliticalinstabilityintheSovietUnionandinSoviet dominatedEasternEurope. Inlargemeasure,thisconservativeLeninistattitudereflectsRussia'sdelayedmodernizationand politicaldevelopment.Intermsoftheglobalcity,theSovietUnionrepresentsanarchaicreligiouscommunity 9 thatexperiencesmodernityexistentiallybutnotquiteyetnormatively.

PolicyImplications
TheforegoinggeneralpropositionspointtoseveralimmediateimplicationsforAmericanforeignpolicy,in termsbothofguidingassumptionsandofthedesirableforeignposture.Beforeelaborating,letusfirstpositthese implicationsintheirmostsuccinctform:aposturebasedonideologicalconsiderationshasbecomedatedan AmericanSovietaxisisnotlikelytobethebasisforanewinternationalsystemtraditionalspheresofinfluence areincreasinglyunviableeconomicdeterminisminregardtothelessdevelopedcountriesortothecommunist statesdoesnotprovideasoundbasisforpolicyregionalalliancesagainstindividualnationsarebecoming obsolescentanextensiveAmericanmilitarypresenceabroadisbecomingcounterproductivetoAmerican interestsandtothegrowthofaninternationalcommunityAmericandiplomaticmachinerydevelopedinthe preglobalandpretechnetronicage hasbecomeoutmodedandrequiresextensivemodernization. AlthoughAmericanforeignpolicyhasnotbeenasundifferentiatedlyanticommunistasitscriticshave * founditconvenienttoassert, therehasbeenastrongrhetoricaltendencyinAmericanofficialcirclestoreduce internationalproblemstoanideologicalconfrontationandtoidentifyradicalchangeascontrarytoAmerican interests.Henceforth,localtransformationsinvariouspartsoftheworldarelesslikelytobeseenaspartofa universalthreatinaddition,thegradualpluralizationofthecommunistworldwillcontinuetoaccelerate differencesamongthecommunistsystems.ThiswillreducerelianceonactiveAmericanintervention,makingit imperativeprimarilyindefence ofconcreteAmericaninterestsorinresponsetoanoverthostileactbyapower withthepotential tothreatentheUnitedStates. AlessideologicalperspectivewillreducetheAmericanSoviet relationshiptoitsproperproportions.TheprincipalthreattheSovietUnionposestotheUnitedStatesismilitary: astrongerSovietUnionthereforeinescapablytendstothreatenAmericaaweakerSovietUnionfeelsthreatened byAmerica.Sinceawarbetweenthetwosuperpowerswouldbemutuallydestructive,armscontrol arrangementsbetweenthetwocountriesaredictatedbycommonsense.ThecontinuingSALT(StrategicArms LimitationTalks)betweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioncanbeseenasmorethananegotiation betweentworivalsinadvertently,preciselybecausetheywillbelengthy,thetalkssignifyadefacto beginning ofajointcommissiononarmsandstrategy.Althoughlimitedinactualpower,the"commission"graduallyand perhapsincreasinglywillaffectthewayeachsideacts,stimulatinggreatermutualsensitivitytofeltneedsand fears. Inthemeantime,untilabindingagreementisreached,Americantechnologicalsophisticationis sufficienttoprovidethe necessarydegreeofambiguitytothequalitativeandquantitativepowerrelationship betweenthetwostates.Inthecurrentphaseofdestructiveparity,thisstrategicandpsychologicalpostureis neededinordertoreplaceearlierrelianceonmanifestandcredibledeterrencebornofAmericansuperiorityin destructivepower.Paritydeterrencerequiressomeambiguity,justassuperioritydeterrencedemandedprecise credibility. 10 Butoutsidethisrelationshiptheopportunitiesforawiderangingsettlement arerelativelyrestricted. AnAmericanSovietaxiswouldberesentedbytoomanystatesandthereforetemptbothWashingtonand Moscowtoexploittheseresentments.Ineffect,themoresuccessfultheeffortstocreatesuchanaxis,the strongertheimpedimenttoit.Inaddition,ashasalreadybeenargued,theSovietUniondoesnotrepresentavital socialalternativethatofferstheworldanattractiveandrelevantmodelforhandlingeitheritsolddilemmasor particularlythenewonesposedbyscience andtechnology.Asaresult,themostthatAmericacanreasonably seekisagradualincreaseinSovietinvolvementininternationalcooperationthroughsuchprojectsasjointspace
*

ThechargethattheUnitedStateshasconducteditsforeignpolicyontheassumptionofamonolithicworldcommunistconspiracyisdearto somescholarlycritics.Inpointoffact,theUnitedStatespioneeredinaidtoYugoslaviainthelate1940sitwasthefirsttoinitiateAmerican Sovietculturalexchanges,visitsbetweenheadsofstate,andsoon. Inmorespecificterms,itwouldbedesirableandproperfortheUnitedStatestoaidThailandwitharmsandequipmentshouldthatcountry bethreatenedbyNorthVietnam.ThesameresponsewouldapplytoaNorthKoreanthreatagainstSouthKorea,orathreatbytheArabstates againstIsrael.ButinnoneofthesecasesshouldAmericanforcesbe committedunlessamajorpower,i.e.,theUSSRorChina,becomes directlyinvolved.TotalAmericanabstentionwouldencourageaggression,butAmericanaidshouldsufficetomakethewareitheruselessor verycostlytotheaggressor.Torepeatdirectinvolvementshouldbereservedforsituationsinwhichapowerwiththecapacitytothreaten theUnitedStatesisinvolved. Scienceandtechnologyhavealreadyrevolutionizedtheexerciseofsovereigntybythetwocountriesvisaviseachother.Theutilizationof theU2S,andsubsequentlyofreconnaissancesatellites,vitiatedtheclaimtounlimitedsovereigntyovernationalairspace,somewhat undoingSovietmilitarysecrecy.TheacquiescenceoftheSovietUniontotheU2flightswasnecessitatedbyitsinabilitytoshootthese planesdowninspiteoftheMayi960incident,theprecedentofunilateralinspectionwastherebyassertedandhassincebecomeapractice followedbybothstates. Theinherentcomplexityofreachinganarmscontrolagreementis suggestedbythefollowingconclusionbyaspecialistinthefield:"There isbasisforhope[ofapossibleagreement]ifbothsidescanacceptthefactthatforsometimethemosttheycanexpecttoachieveisa strategicbalanceatquitehigh,butless rapidlyescalating,forcelevelsandifbothrecognizethatbreakingtheactionreactioncycleshouldbe givenfirstpriorityinanynegotiations"(GeorgeW.Rathjens,TheFutureoftheStrategicArmsRace, NewYork,1969,p.40).

108

exploration,underseastudies,andsoforth.Cumulatively,thesemayhelpshapeapatternofcollaborative involvementthatwilleventuallyembraceotherspheres. Meanwhile,itislikelythatAmericanandRussianinfluencewilldecreaseinareasthatbothnations havetraditionallyconsideredtheirownspecialdomains.Inamoderncity"stakedout"areasarepossibleonlyin relationsamongcriminalgangsintheglobalcitysealedspheresofinfluenceareincreasinglydifficultorat leastcostlytomaintain.EasternEuropeisboundtoremainattractedtotheWest,andonlydirectSoviet coercioncanimpedewhatwouldotherwisehappenquiterapidly:thelinkageofEasternEuropetoalarger Europeanentity.EvenSovietforcewillnotbeabletohaltthisprocessentirelythetraditionalculturalattraction oftheWestistoo strong,anditiscurrentlyreinforcedbygrowingEasternEuropeanrecognitionthat,becauseof thetechnologicalgapbetweentheEastandtheWest,RussiacannoteffectivelyhelpEasternEuropetoenterthe postindustrialage.Thisattractionishealthy,forthegradualexpansionofEasternEuropeanlinkswithWestern EuropeisboundtoaffecttheSovietUnionaswellandlessenitsdoctrinalorientation. ThenotionofaspecialrelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandLatinAmericaisalsoboundto decay.LatinAmericannationalism,moreandmoreradicalasitwidensitspopularbase,willbedirectedwith increasinganimosityagainsttheUnitedStates,unlesstheUnitedStatesrapidlyshiftsitsownposture.Ac cordingly,itwouldbewisefortheUnitedStatestomakeanexplicitmovetoabandontheMonroeDoctrineand toconcedethatinthenewglobalagegeographicorhemisphericcontiguitynolongerneedbepolitically decisive.NothingcouldbehealthierforPanAmericanrelationsthanfortheUnitedStatestoplacethemonthe samelevelasitsrelationswiththerestoftheworld,confiningitselftoemphasisonculturalpoliticalaffinities (asitdoeswithWesternEurope)andeconomicsocialobligations(asitdoeswiththelessdevelopedcountries). Itwouldalsobeadvisabletoviewthequestionofthepoliticaldevelopmentofboththecommunistand thedevelopingcountrieswithagreatdealofpatience.JustastheinfusionofAmericanpowermaynotalwaysbe thesolution,sorelianceoneconomicgrowthisnoguaranteeofeitherdemocratization,politicalstability,orpro Americanism.Ashasbeenpointedout,politicalchangeinthecommuniststatesisnotasimplebyproductof economicdevelopment,andthesusceptibilityofthelessdevelopedcountriestoradicalappealsrisesasthey begintodevelop.Foreignaidandclosereconomiccontactsarenotapalliativefordeeprootedcrisesora remedyfortheillsofdeeplyentrenchedideologicalinstitutions. Thisarguesforanapproachto internationaleconomicrelationsandforeignaidthatisincreasingly depoliticizedinform,eveniftheultimateunderlyingpurposeremainspolitical.Ifthatpurposeistopromotethe emergenceofamorecooperativecommunityofnations,irrespectiveof theirindividualinternalsystems,thenit wouldbeastepintherightdirectiontogiveinternationalbodiesalargerroleineconomicdevelopmentandto starteliminatingrestrictionsontrade.Suchactionisallthemorelikelytobeeventuallysuccessfulbecauseitis lessovertlypoliticalandisnotgearedtoexpectationsofrapidandbasicpoliticalchangeachievedthroughdirect * economicleverage. Amoredetachedattitudetowardworldrevolutionaryprocessesandalessanxiouspreoccupationwith theSovietUnionwouldalsohelptheUnitedStatestodevelopadifferentposturetowardChina.ChinaandSouth Asiaareheavilypopulatedareasthathaveinheritedfrom,thepastcomplexchallengestosocialorganization, andarestillstrugglingwiththeseoldproblemsatatimewhentheadvancedworldisbeginningtoconfront problemsofnewdimensions.UntillinksareestablishedwithChinaandthesecaninitiallybesoughtand directedthroughJapanandWesternEuropeChinawillremainanexcludedandaselfexcludedportionof mankind,allthemorethreateningbecauseitsbackwardnesswillincreasinglybecombinedwithmassivenuclear power.Accordingly,theUnitedStates,insteadofbecominganindirectSovietallyagainstChinawhichiswhat MoscowobviouslywantsshouldencourageeffortsbyothercountriestoseektieswithChina.Inaddition,it 11 shouldlaunchitsowninitiatives, andavoidbecomingentangledinovertantiChinesesecurityarrangements. Indeed,inourageinternationalsecurityarrangementsoughttoresemblethoseoflargemetropolitancenters: sucharrangementsaredirectednotagainstspecificorganizationsorindividualsbutagainstthosewhodepart fromestablishednorms.Thus,anassociationbasedonaconceptofcooperativenationslinkedforavarietyof purposes,includingsecurity,oughtgraduallytoreplaceexistingalliances,whichareusuallyformulatedinterms of apotentialaggressor,explicitlyidentifiedeitherinthetreatyorintheaccompanyingrhetoric.Thoughinitially thiswouldbeonlyaformalisticchangefortheassociationofstateswouldnecessarilyinvolveonlythosethat sharecertaininterestsandfearsadeliberatelyopenendedstructure,withthesecurityelementsonlyapartial andsecondaryaspect,wouldavoidperpetuatinginstitutionallytheinevitablebutoftentransientconflictsof interestsbetweenstates. Evolutionintheformsofinternationalsecuritywouldfacilitatethegradualrestructuringofthe Americandefenseposture,particularlybyconcentratingAmericanmilitarypresenceabroadinafewkey countries.Exceptincountriesthatfeelthemselvesdirectlythreatened,prolongedUnitedStatesmilitarypresence
*

Thisneednotexclude theconcentrationofeffortonspecificstateswhenprospectsforeconomicdevelopmentcoincidewithmorestrictly politicalAmericaninterests.Inotherwords,internationaleconomicaidforhumanitarianpurposescangohandinhandwithmoreselective andmoreintensiveeffortsinregardtospecificcountries. ThismaybeespeciallyrelevanttoeffortstoconstructasystemofcooperationinthePacific.Byitself,itisunlikelythatSoutheastAsia, evenwithimprovedeconomicperformance,cancreatethefoundationsforregionalsecurity.ButenlargedthroughJapanese,Australian,and Americanparticipation and notspecificallydirectedagainstChinasomeformsofcooperationcouldgraduallydevelop,andthesystem mighteventuallyinvolvemoreandmorenations.

109

tendstogalvanizepoliticalhostilitytowardtheUnitedStatesevenintraditionallyfriendlycountries(like Turkey),andthoughthatpresencewasoncewantedbythecountriesconcerned,ithastendedtobecomean Americanvestedinterest.Withtherestraintimposedonthewagingofanalloutwarbythedestructivenessof nuclearweaponsandwiththelikelihoodthatsporadicThirdWorldviolencewillreplacetheprevious preoccupationwithacentralwar,Americanforcesstationedabroadontheassumptionthattheywillbeneeded toassurethesecurityofdifferentnationsfromacommonthreatarelessandlessrequiredforthatpurpose.With someexceptions(forexample,SouthKorea,Berlin,orWestGermany),byandlargebothglobalstabilityand AmericaninterestswouldprobablynotbejeopardizediftheAmericandefenseposturebecameterritoriallymore confined(thishasbeentrueoftheSovietUnion,withlittleapparentdamagetoitssecurity),andrelied * increasinglyonlongrangemobility. Finally,theopportunitiesandthedangersinherentinthescientific technologicalagerequiresubtlebutimportantchangesinAmericanattitudesandorganization.Thesechanges willnotcomerapidlytheycannotbeblueprintedindetailtheyareunlikelytobeachieveddramatically. Nonetheless,toplayaneffectiveworld roleAmericaneedsforeignrelationsmachinerythatexploitsthelatest communicationstechniquesandusesastyleandorganizationresponsivetothemorecongestedpatternofour globalexistence. Thisishardlythecasetoday.Ourdiplomaticmachineryisstilltheproductofthetraditional arrangementsthatwerecontrivedafter1815andthatwereritualisticallypreoccupiedwithprotocol.Itis predominantlygearedtogovernmenttogovernmentrelations,oftenneglectingthecurrentlyfarmoreimportant roleofsocialdevelopments.Itisnoaccidentthatnewspapermen,lessdependentongovernmentalcontactsand moreinclinedtobecomeabsorbedinagivensociety'slife,haveoftenbeenmoresensitivetothebroadpatternof changeinforeigncountriesthanhavethelocalAmericandiplomats.Contemporaryforeignrelationsincreasingly requireskillsinintellectualscientificcommunications,includingtheabilitytocommunicateeffectivelywiththe creativesegmentsofothersocieties,anditisprecisely inthesefieldsthattheexistingdiplomatictrainingand procedurearemostdeficient. Moreover,theentiretraditionofsecretdispatchesandlengthycables,whichdailyoverwhelmState DepartmentheadquartersinWashington,hassimplynottakenintoaccounttheexplosioninmodern communications,thedevelopmentofexcellentforeignreportingintheleadingAmericanandforeign newspapers,andeventheroleoftelevision. Incommentingonthe1969Duncanreport,whichwassimilarly criticaloftheBritishforeignservice,CanadianpoliticalscientistJamesEayrsnoted:"Toomanypeoplepushtoo manypensacrosstoomanypiecesofpaper,fillingthemwithworthlessmessages."12 ThomasJeffersononce complainedthathehadnotheardfromoneofhisambassadorsforayearthepresentSecretaryofStatecould legitimatelycomplainthathedailyhearstoomuchfromtoomanyunneededambassadors. TheUnitedStatesisthecountrythatmosturgentlyneedstoreformitsforeignserviceand policymakingestablishment,anditisbestequippedtoundertakesuchreform.Itisthefirstsocietytobecome globallyoriented,anditistheonewiththemostextensiveandintensivecommunicationsinvolvement.Its businesscommunity,moreover,hasalsoacquiredextensiveexperienceinforeignoperationsandhaseffectively masteredtheartsofaccuratereporting,foreignrepresentation,andcentralcontrolwithoutrelyingonenormous staffsandredundantoperations.Ithasalsopioneeredintheadoptionofthelatesttechniques,suchasclosed circuittelevisionconferences,sharedtimecomputers,andotherdevices. Thoughthisishardlytheplacetooutlinetheneededreformsindetail,thepointremainsthat,giventhe fundamentalchangesinthewaynationsinteract,anextensivestudyanddrasticreformoftheexisting,highly traditionalstructureandstyleoftheAmericanforeignserviceislongoverdue.Widerdiplomaticuseofcompu tersanddirectsoundandsightelectroniccommunicationshouldpermitthereductioninthesizeandnumberof UnitedStatesforeignmissions,makingthemoperationallysimilartothemoreefficientinternational corporations.Washington'spolicymakingprocessneedstobesimilarlystreamlinedandfreedfromitstangleof 13 bureaucraticredtape.

Somestandbyfacilitiesforinternationalpeacekeepingforcescouldbeprovidedif,withtheagreementofthehostcountry,somevacated UnitedStatesbasesweretakenoverbytheUN.Itshouldinanycase,benotedthatAmericanpublic opinionseemslittledisposedtobackthe useofAmericanforcestoprotectforeignnations.Inamid1969publicopinionpoll,whichaskedwhetherAmericaoughttoaidforeign statesifthesewereinvadedbyoutsidecommunistmilitaryforces,thosewhowerewillingtorelyonforcewereinthemajorityonlywith respecttoCanadaandMexico(57percentand52percentrespectively)thefigureforWestGermanywas38percent,forJapan27percent, forIsrael9percent(heretheforeignaggressionpostulatedwasnotnecessarilycommunist),forRumania13percentwhencombinedwith thosewillingtohelpshortofforce,thepercentageforCanadawas79percent,forMexico76percent,forWestGermany59percent,for Israel44percent,forRumania24percent,forJapan42percent(HarrisPoll,ascitedby Time,May2,1969). Thenationalmoodcouldeasilychangeinthelightofcircumstances,buttheabovepollissignificantinindicatingageneralattitude.It suggestsamoreselectiveapproachtowardmilitarycommitmentandmayhavesomebearingonthelikelypublicresponsetotheformation ofaprofessionalvolunteerarmy.Alarge,conscriptbasedarmywastosomeextentareflectionofthepopulistnationalismstimulatedbythe FrenchRevolution,whichsaweverycitizenasasoldier.Thishadgreatermeaninginanageofrelativelyunsophisticatedweaponryand intenseideologicalmotivation.Withbothfactorschangingdrastically,thecaseforamoreprofessionalarmedforce,employedformore selectivepurposes,gainsweight. ThiswritercanstateonthebasisofpersonalexperiencewhileservingintheDepartmentofStatethatinmostcasesabetteroratleastas goodapictureofforeigndevelopmentscanbeobtainedbyreadingthebetter newspapersincluding,ofcourse,theforeignonesthanby perusingthehundredsofdailytelegrams,oftenreportingcocktailpartytrivia.

110

3.ACommunityoftheDevelopedNations
Thesemoreimmediatelynecessarychangesmustbereinforcedbyabroaderefforttocontaintheglobal tendenciestowardchaos.Acommunityofthedevelopednationsmusteventuallybeformediftheworldisto respondeffectivelytotheincreasinglyseriouscrisisthatindifferentwaysnowthreatensboththeadvanced worldandtheThirdWorld.Persistentdivisionsamongthedevelopedstates,particularlythosebasedon outmodedideologicalconcepts,will negatetheeffortsofindividualstatestoaidtheThirdWorldinthemore advancedworldtheycouldevencontributetoaresurgenceofnationalism.

WesternEuropeandJapan
FromanAmericanstandpoint,themoreimportantandpromisingchangesintheyearstocomewill havetoinvolveWesternEuropeandJapan.Theabilityoftheseareastocontinuetogroweconomicallyandto maintainrelativelydemocraticpoliticalformswillmorecruciallyaffectthegradualevolutionofanewinterna tionalsystemthanwilllikelychangesinAmericanSovietrelations.WesternEuropeandJapanoffergreater possibilitiesforinitiativesdesignedtoweaveanewfabricofinternationalrelations,andbecause,likeAmerica, theyareintheforefrontofscientificandtechnologicalinnovation,theyrepresentthemostvitalregionsofthe globe. ThoughsomescholarsemphasizethevitalityofEuropeannationalism,thebroadthrustofWestern EuropeandevelopmentistowardincreasingcooperationandmuchmoreimportanttowardaEuropean * consciousness. FortheyoungerEuropeans,WesternEuropeisalreadyanentityinallbutthepoliticalrespect: thoughstillanachronisticallygovernedbyaseriesofprovincialchieftains(occasionallyvisitedseriatimbythe foreignpotentatefromWashington),theirEuropeisfrontierless,opentounlimitedtourism,tothealmost unlimitedmovementofgoods,andincreasinglytothefreeflowofstudentsandworkers.Tobesure,apositive regionalismisyettomature,buttheforegoingat leastprovidestheneededpsychologicalbasisforanewEurope. ThetechnetronicrevolutionhasacceleratedtheappearanceofthisEurope,andtheautarkicideasoftheindustrial agehavelittleornoholdonittoday. InEuropetheimpactofscienceand technology,thoughdisruptivewithinsomesocieties(particularly Italy,whichisjustcompletingtheindustrialphaseofitsdevelopment),hasinspiredincreasedcooperationin Japan,however,whichlackstheimmediateexternaloutletthatEuropeanunificationprovidesfortheWestern EuropeansandwhichissubjecttoahighlyvisibleAmericanmilitarypoliticalpresence,ithashadaninternally aggravatingeffect.Ittendstosharpenthenation'sinternalpoliticalconflicts,polarizingpublicopinionand renderingthefutureorientationofthecountryuncertain. Theconflictsbetweengenerationsevidentinmostof theadvancedworldhavespecialgravityinJapan,giventheculturalupheavalproducedbyitsdefeatinWorld WarIIandtheonlyrecentlyachievedbalancebetweenitstraditionsandmoderndemocraticinstitutions.A revivalofJapanesenationalismoraturntowardideologicalradicalismwouldseriouslythreatenthehighly tenuousstructureofpeaceinthePacificanddirectlyaffecttheinterestsoftheUnitedStates,theSovietUnion, andChina. Accordingly,aneffortmustbemadetoforgeacommunityofthedevelopednationsthatwould embracetheAtlanticstates,themoreadvancedEuropeancommuniststates,andJapan.Thesenationsneed not andforaverylongtimecouldnotformahomogeneouscommunityresemblingEECortheoncehopedfor Atlanticcommunity.Nonetheless,progressinthatdirectionwouldhelptoterminatethecivilwarthathas dominatedinternationalpoliticsamongthedevelopednationsforthelasthundredandfiftyyears.Thoughthe nationalistandideologicaldisputesamongthesenationshavelessandlessrelevancetomankind'srealproblems, theirpersistencehasprecludedaconstructiveresponsetodilemmasthatbothdemocraticandcommuniststates increasinglyrecognizeasbeingthekeyissuesofourtimes.Theabsenceofaunifyingprocessofinvolvement haskeptolddisputesaliveandhasobscuredthepurposesofstatesmanship. Topostulatetheneedforsuchacommunityandtodefineitscreationasthecomingdecade'smajortask isnotutopianism.Underthepressuresofeconomics,science,andtechnology,mankindismovingsteadily towardlargescalecooperation.Despiteperiodicreverses,allhumanhistoryclearlyindicatesprogressinthat direction.Thequestioniswhetheraspontaneousmovementwillsufficetocounterbalancethedangersalready noted.Andsincetheanswerisprobablyno,itfollowsthatarealisticresponse callsfordeliberateeffortsto acceleratetheprocessofinternationalcooperationamongtheadvancednations. Movementtowardalargercommunityofthedevelopednationswillnecessarilyhavetobepiecemeal, anditwillnotprecludemorehomogeneousrelationshipswithinthelargerentity.Moreover,suchacommunity
*

ThishasbeendramaticallyillustratedinFrancebypollswhichshowthatFrenchpublicopinion,longheldtobestronglynationalist, supportstheemergenceofaEuropeangovernmentthatwouldhavedecisivepowersoveralocalFrenchgovernmentinsuchareasas scientificresearch(66percentforaEuropeangovernment,15percentforadecisiveFrenchgovernment) andforeignpolicy(61percent and17percent,respectively).ThesepollsindicatethatmostFrenchmenfavoredretainingtheFrenchgovernment'sdecisiveroleonlyin purelyinternalaffairs,suchassocialpolicy,vacations,education,andsoforth(AlainLancelotandPierreWeill,"TheFrenchandthe PoliticalUnificationofEurope," Revuefrancaisedesciencepolitique, February1969,pp.14570). Thus,thecenterrightcoalitionthathasgovernedJapaninthepostwarperiodhasgraduallyshrunk:in 1952itobtained66.1percentofthe popularvotein1953,65.7percentin1955,63.2percentin1958,57.8percentin1960,57.6percentin1963,54.7percentin1967, 48.8percentandin1969,47.6percent.

111

cannotbeachievedbyfusingexistingstatesintoonelargerentity.Thedesiretocreateonelarger,formalstateis itselfanextensionofreasoningderivedfromtheageofnationalism.Itmakesmuchmoresensetoattempt to associateexistingstatesthroughavarietyofindirecttiesandalreadydevelopinglimitationsonnational sovereignty. Inthisprocess,theSovietUnionandEasternEuropeontheonehandandWesternEuropeontheother willcontinueforalongtime toenjoymoreintimaterelationshipswithintheirownareas.Thatisunavoidable. Thepoint,however,istodevelopabroaderstructurethatlinkstheforegoinginvariousregionalorfunctional formsofcooperation.Suchastructurewouldnotsweepaside UnitedStatesSovietnuclearrivalry,whichwould remaintheaxisofworldmilitarymight.Butinthebroadercooperativesetting,thecompetitionbetweenthe UnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioncouldeventuallyresembleinformlatenineteenthcenturyAngloFrench colonialcompetition:FashodadidnotvitiatetheemergingEuropeanentente. Movementtowardsuchacommunitywillinallprobabilityrequiretwobroadandoverlappingphases. Thefirstofthesewouldinvolvetheforgingofcommunitylinksamong theUnitedStates,WesternEurope,and Japan,aswellaswithothermoreadvancedcountries(forexample,Australia,Israel,Mexico).Thesecondphase wouldincludetheextensionoftheselinkstomoreadvanced communistcountries.Someofthemforexample, YugoslaviaorRumaniamaymovetowardcloserinternationalcooperationmorerapidlythanothers,andhence thetwophasesneednotnecessarilybesharplydemarcated.

StructureandFocus
Theemergingcommunityofdevelopednationswouldrequiresomeinstitutionalexpression,even thoughitwouldbeunwisetoseektocreatetoomanybindingintegratedprocessesprematurely.Acasecanbe madeforinitiallysettinguponlyahighlevelconsultativecouncilforglobalcooperation,regularlybringingto gethertheheadsofgovernmentsofthedevelopedworldtodiscusstheircommonpoliticalsecurity,educational scientific,andeconomictechnologicalproblems,aswellastodealfromthatperspectivewiththeirmoral obligationstowardthedevelopingnations.Somepermanentsupportingmachinerycouldprovidecontinuityto theseconsultations. Accordingly,suchacouncilforglobalcooperationwouldbesomethingmorethanOECDinthatit wouldoperateonahigherlevelandwouldalsobeconcernedwithpoliticalstrategy,butitwouldbemore diffusedthanNATOinthatitwouldnotseektoforgeintegratedmilitarypoliticalstructures.Nevertheless,a councilofthissortperhapsinitiallylinkingonlytheUnitedStates,Japan,andWesternEurope,andthus bringingtogetherthepoliticalleadersofstatessharingcertaincommonaspirationsandproblemsofmodernity wouldbemoreeffectiveindevelopingcommonprogramsthanistheUnitedNations,whoseefficacyis unavoidablylimitedbytheColdWarandbynorthsouthdivisions. TheinclusionofJapanwouldbeparticularlyimportant,bothtotheinternaldevelopmentofJapanese lifeandtothevitalityofsuchacommunity.Japanisaworldpower,andinaworldofelectronicandsupersonic communicationsitisa psychologicalandpoliticalerrortothinkofitasprimarilyanAsiannation.Japan needs anoutletcommensuratewithitsownadvanceddevelopment,notonethatplacesitinthepositionofagiant amongpygmiesandthatexcludesit defacto fromthecouncilsoftherealworldpowers.TheregularAmerican Japanesecabinetleveltalksareadesirablebilateralarrangement,butJapanwillbecomemorefullyand creativelyinvolvedinworldaffairsinalargersettingofequalpartners. Withoutsuchalargersetting,thereisdangerthattheextraordinarypaceofJapanesesocioeconomic developmentwillbecomedestructive.TheautomaticprojectionsofJapanesegrowthintothefuture,madewith increasingfrequencyinthelate1960s,aremisleadingtheydonotmakeallowanceforthedestabilizingeffectof theimpactofchangeonJapanesetraditions.Thereisarealpossibilitythatinthe1970sJapanwillundergo extremelyupsettinginternalconflictsunlessinsomewayJapaneseidealismisbothstimulatedandturnedto goalslargerthaninsularandpersonalhedonism.Internationalcooperation,involvingthesharingwithJapanof responsibilityaswellasofpower,couldprovidesuchanoutlet. Suchacouncilwouldalsoprovideapoliticalsecurityframeworkinwhichthesecurityconcernsofeach statecouldbeviewedinacontextthattakesintoaccounttheinescapableconnectionsbetweensuchmattersas SovietpolicyinBerlinandtheSinoSovietcrisis,Chinesenucleardevelopmentanditsimplicationsbothfor JapanesesecurityandforEastWestrelationsinEurope,andsoon.Similarly,matterssuchasJapanese rearmament,possiblyevenJapan'sacquisitionofnucleararms(thoughtbyincreasinglylargenumbersof 14 Japanesetobelikelyduringthesecond halfofthe1970s), couldbeviewedintermsofthisbroadersignificance ratherthanasaresponsetopurelylocalconsiderations.Indeed,giventhenatureofmodernscientificdevelop mentsandcommunications,itisnottooearlytothinkoftechnologicalcooperationbetweenWesternEuropeand Japan,aswellasbetweenbothofthemandtheUnitedStates,insomefieldsofdefense. Politicalsecurityeffortswould,however,inallprobabilitybesecondinimportancetoeffortsto broadenthescopeof educationalscientificandeconomictechnologicalcooperationamongthemostadvanced industrialnationsthatarebecomingpostindustrialandareinsomeregardsmovingintothepostnationalage. * Theprojectedworldinformationgrid,forwhichJapan,WesternEurope,andthe UnitedStatesaremostsuited,
*

"WesternEuropeandJapanpresentthemostimmediateopportunitiesfortheworldinformationgrid.TheEuropeansandtheJapaneseare

112

couldcreatethebasisforacommoneducationalprogram,fortheadoptionofcommonacademicstandards,for theorganizedpoolingofinformation,andforamorerationaldivisionoflaborinresearchanddevelopment. ComputersatM.I.T.havealreadybeenregularly"conversing"withLatinAmericanuniversities,andthereisno technicalobstacletopermanentinformationlinkagebetween,forexample,theuniversitiesofNewYork, 15 Moscow,Tokyo,MexicoCity,andMilan. Suchscientificinformationallinkagewouldbeeasiertosetupthan jointeducationalprogramsandwouldencourageaninternationaleducationalsystembyprovidinganadditional stimulustoaninternationaldivisionofacademic labour,uniformacademicstandards,andacrossnational poolingofacademicresources. Stepsinthatdirectioncouldbeacceleratedbysomesymbolicjointactions.Spaceexplorationis probablythemostdramaticexampleofhumanadventuremadepossiblebyscience,butcurrentlyitisalmost entirelymonopolizedonacompetitivebasisbytheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion.ThepoolingofWestern European,Japanese,andAmericanresourcesforaspecificjointundertakingcoulddomuchtoaccelerate 16 internationalcooperation. Inaddition,itmaybedesirabletodevelopaninternationalconventiononthesocial consequencesofappliedscienceandtechnology.Thisnotonlywouldpermittheecologicalandsocialeffectsof newtechniquestobeweighedinadvance butwouldalsomakeitpossibletooutlawtheuseofchemicalstolimit andmanipulatemanandtopreventotherscientificabusestowhichsomegovernmentsmaybetempted. Intheeconomictechnologicalfieldsomeinternationalcooperationhasalreadybeenachieved,but furtherprogresswillrequiregreaterAmericansacrifices.Moreintensiveeffortstoshapeanewworldmonetary structurewillhavetobeundertaken,withsomeconsequentrisktothepresentrelativelyfavorableAmerican position.Furtherprogresswouldinallprobabilityrequiretheabandonmentofrestrictions,imposedbyCongress in1949and1954,ontheinternationalactivitiesofAmericancorporationsandontheirforeignsubsidiariesand plants.Theappearanceofatrulyinternational structureofproductionandfinancingwouldhavetogohandin handwiththeemergenceofa"theoryofinternationalproduction,"neededtosupplementourpresenttheoriesof * internationaltrade. Progressalongtheselineswouldalsofacilitatethecreationofafreetradearea,whichcould betargetedinprogressivestages.

TheCommunistStates
TheSovietUnionmaycometoparticipateinsuchalargerframeworkofcooperationbecauseofthe inherentattractionoftheWestfortheEasternEuropeanswhom theSovietUnionwouldhavetofollowlestit losethemaltogetherandbecauseoftheSovietUnion'sownfeltneedforincreasedcollaborationinthe technologicalandscientificrevolution.ThatEasternEuropeanswillmoveclosertoWesternEuropeiscertain. Theeventsof1968inCzechoslovakiaaremerelyanauguryofwhatistocome,inspiteofforcibleSovietefforts tothecontrary.ItisonlyamatteroftimebeforeindividualcommuniststatescomeknockingatthedoorsofEEC orOECDhence,broaderEastWestarrangementsmayevenbecomeawayforMoscowtomaintaineffective linkswiththeEasternEuropeancapitals. TheevolutionofYugoslavthinkingandbehavioratteststothefactthatthecommuniststatesarenot immunetotheprocessofchangeandtointelligentWesterninitiatives.Slightlymorethantwentyyearsago, YugoslavpronouncementswerenotunlikethoseoftheChinesetoday.YetYugoslavianowleadsallcommunist statesineconomicreform,intheopennessofitssociety,andinideologicalmoderation.Inthelate1960sit joinedGATT, andYugoslavia'sassociationwithEFTA andperhapseventuallywiththeCommonMarketis aprobability.Whilestillcommittedtothenotionof"socialism,"Yugoslavia'sviewsoninternationalpoliticsare moderate,andtheyhavehadasignificantimpactoncommunisminEasternEurope. Similartrendsareslowlydevelopingelsewhereinthecommunistworld.Tobesure,theyareopposed byentrenchedbureaucrats,butinthelongrunthereactionariesarefightingalosingbattle.Socialforcesare againstthem,andtheconservativeelitesareonthedefensiveeverywhere.Itisdoubtfulwhethertheycan
bothincreasinglysensitivetotheimportanceofinformationstorageandtransfernetwork,similartotheonenowevolvinginthiscountry. "TheEuropeans'successinthisprojectwilldepend,inpart,ontheirabilitytomodifyanumberofpresentrestrictiveattitudes.Oneisthe lingeringtraditionofsecretivenessintheirresearchanddevelopmentwork.Anotheristhenationalisticinhibitioninsharingregional informationresources.Itwouldbeunfortunateiftheseattitudesheldupformationofthenetwork,sinceEuropeans,overthelongrun,cannot thinkintermsof'Italianresearch'or'Norwegianresearch'anymorethantheyareabletomake adistinctionbetweenresearchdonein CaliforniaorNewJersey. "ThereiseveryreasontoencouragetheEuropeanstoovercometheseproblems.TheAmericaninformationtransfernetworkshouldbe linkeddirectlyintotheirregionalsystem,permittingabroaderexchangeofinformation"(TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,pp.1011). * JuddPolkarguesthat"whatweneedisnotatheoryofinternationaltradethatabstractsfromproduction,butatheoryofaninternational productionwhich,beingspecialized,presupposestrade."Hegoesontonotethat"thequestionisnotoneofintrudingintotheeconomyof othersitisamatterofreleasingtheproductioncapabilitiesofallnations.Theproblemsofproductionseenfromthestandpointofan economyvastlylargerthanthatofthenationarenewtoeveryone.TheUnitedStatescannotabandonitsconcernforthenationalbalanceof payments,but,asnoted,itisbeginningtoperceivetheurgentneedforasystemofinternationalaccountsascomprehensive asthepresent nationalaccounts.Itparticularlyneedstofollowthewholepictureoftheinternationalmovementoffactorsofproduction.Justtofeelthis needistohavemadeextraordinaryprogressinashort20years,fortherecannotoccuradislodgmentofthedollarfromitsinternational functionwithoutacripplingdislodgmentoftheproductionandtradeitsupports.Norcantherebeapracticalimprovementinthisfunction exceptinthecontextofthecashandcreditrequirementsofthenewworldeconomy"("TheNewWorldEconomy," ColumbiaJournalof WorldBusiness, JanuaryFebruary1968,p.15). GATT:GeneralAgreementonTradeandTariffs. EFTA:EuropeanFreeTradeAssociation.

113

reverse,thoughtheycertainlycandelay,thetrendtowardamoreopen,humanistic,andlessideologicalsociety. Theresistanceofthoseregimesdominatedbyentrenchedconservativebureaucracieswillbefurtherweakenedif theWestviewstheColdWarasprimarilyduetothefadingselfservingdoctrinesoftheCommunistrulers,ifit approachestheColdWarmoreasanaberrationandlessasamission. OverthelongrunandourearlieranalysisindicatesthatitwouldbealongrunSoviet responsivenesscouldbestimulatedthroughthedeliberateopeningofEuropeancooperativeventurestotheEast andthroughthecreationofnewEastWestbodiesdesignedinitiallyonlytopromoteadialogue,theexchangeof information,andtheencouragementofacooperativeethos.Thedeliberatedefinitionofcertaincommon objectivesineconomicdevelopment,technologicalassistance,andEastWestsecurityarrangementscouldhelp stimulateasenseofcommonpurposeandthegrowthofarudimentaryinstitutionalframework.(Forexample, throughformallinksintheeconomicspherebetweenOECDandtheCouncilforMutualEconomic Assistance (CEMA)inthesecurityspherebetweenNATOandtheWarsawPact,andthroughUnitedStatesSovietarms *17 controlarrangementsorbythecreationofaninformalEastWestpoliticalconsultativebody.) Alargercooperativegoalwouldalsohave otherbeneficialeffects.Foronething,itislikelythatthe SovietUnionwouldinitiallydemonstratehesitancyorevenhostilityinthefaceofWesterninitiative.Therefore, anapproachbasedonbilateral AmericanSovietaccommodationasadvocatedby someAmericansmight provetobeabortiveandwouldconsequentlyintensifytensions.Buteffortstocreatealargercooperative communityneednotbehaltedbyinitialSovietreluctance,norcantheybeeasilyexploitedbyMoscowto perpetuatetheColdWar.Onthecontrary,SovietresistancewouldonlyresultinmorecostlySovietisolation.By seekingtocutEasternEuropeofffromtheWest,theSovietUnionwouldinevitablyalsodenyitselfthefruitsof closerEastWesttechnologicalcooperation.In1985thecombinedGNPoftheUnitedStates,WesternEurope, andJapanwillberoughlysomewherearoundthreetrilliondollars,orfourtimesthatofthelikelySovietGNP (assumingafavorablegrowthratefortheSoviets)withsomeEasternEuropeanstatesgraduallyshiftingtoward greatercooperationwithEECandOECD,theSovietUnioncouldabstainonlyatgreatcosttoitsown developmentandworldposition.

RisksandAdvantages
Theshapingofsuchacommunitymaywellprovokechargesthatitsemergencewouldaccentuatethe divisionsinaworldalreadythreatenedbyfragmentation.Theanswertosuchobjectionsistwofold:First, divisionalreadyexists,andourpresentproblemishowbesttodealwithit.Aslongastheadvancedworldis itselfdividedandinconflict,itwillbeunabletoformulatecoherentgoals.Thelessdevelopedcountriesmay evenbebenefitingfromtheinternalrivalriesinthedevelopedworld,whichinciteittocompeteinextendingaid butsincesuchaidtendstobefocusedonshorttermpoliticaladvantagestothedonor,itissubjecttopolitical fluctuationsandmaydeclineastherivalrydeclinesinintensity. Second,theemergenceofamorecooperativestructureamongthemoredevelopednationsislikelyto increasethepossibilityofalongrangestrategyforinternationaldevelopmentbasedontheemergingglobal consciousnessratherthanonoldrivalries. Itcouldhencediminishthedesireforimmediatepoliticalpayoffsandthuspavethewayformore internationalized,mutilateralforeignaid.WhilethevexingproblemsoftariffsandtradewiththeThirdWorld arenotlikelytodisappear,theymightbecomemoremanageableinasettingthatreducesboththeimpediments totrulyinternationalproductionand,consequently,agivencountry'sstakeinthisorthatprotectivearrangement. Theunderlyingmotivationforsuchacommunityis,however,extremelyimportant.Ifthiscommunitydoesnot springfromfearandhatredbutfromawiderrecognitionthatworldaffairswillhave tobeconductedona differentbasis,itwouldnotintensifyworlddivisionsashavealliancesinthepastbutwouldbeasteptoward greaterunity. Itsappearancewouldthereforeassistandperhapsevenacceleratethefurtherdevelopmentofpresent worldbodiessuchastheWorldBankwhichareinanycase defacto institutionsofthedevelopedworld gearedtoassistingtheThirdWorld.Agreatersenseofcommunitywithinthedevelopedworldwouldhelpto strengthentheseinstitutionsbybackingthemwiththesupportofpublicopinionitmightalsoeventuallyleadto thepossibilityofsomethingalongthelinesofaglobaltaxationsystem. Morespecifically,Americawouldgainseveraladvantagesfromitsidentificationwithalargergoal. SuchagoalwouldtendtoreducetheincreasingdangerofAmericanisolationintheworldthisisolationis unavoidablybeingintensified18 bytheproblemsassociatedwithAmerica'sdomesticleapintothefuture.More over,theUnitedStatescannotshapetheworldsinglehanded,eventhoughitmaybetheonlyforcecapableof stimulatingcommoneffortstodoso.Byencouragingandbecomingassociatedwithothermajorpowersina jointresponsetotheproblemsconfrontingman'sfifeonthisplanet,andbyjointlyattemptingtomakedeliberate useofthepotentialofferedbyscienceandtechnology,theUnitedStateswouldmoreeffectivelyachieveitsoften
*

Thisisnotonlyamatteroftechnologicalandmultilateraldeterminism,assuggestedbyPierreHassnerinhis"ImplicationsofChangein EasternEuropefortheAtlanticAlliance"(Orbis,Spring1969,p.246),butalsoadeliberate,thoughverylongrange,strategy. Inmyview,suchacommunitywouldalsoprovide abaseforimplementingmorefarreachingandvisionaryproposalsforglobal cooperationforexample,thosecontainedinthestimulating"BulletinofPeaceProposals"preparedbytheInternationalPeaceResearch Institute,Oslo,intheautumnof1969.

114

proclaimedgoal. Thequestforthatgoalcannot,however,begeographicallyconfinedtotheAtlanticworld,norshould itsmotivationbeevenimplicitlyderivedfromsecurityfearsstimulatedbyamajoroutsidepower.Onereasonfor thedecliningpopularappealoftheAtlanticconceptisthelatter'sassociationwiththeconditionsofpostWorld WarIIEuropeandwiththefearofSovietaggression.Whilesuchaconceptwasaboldideaatthetime,itisnow historicallyandgeographicallylimited.Abroader,moreambitious,andmorerelevantapproachiscalledforby therecognitionthattheproblemsofthe1970swillbelessovertlyideological,morediffusetheywillmore widelyreflectthemalaiseofaworldthatisstillunstructuredpoliticallyandhighlyinegalitarianeconomically. SuchanapproachwouldalsotendtoendthedebateoverAmericanglobalism.The factisthatmuchof theinitiativeandimpetusforanundertakingonsograndascalewillhavetocomefromtheUnitedStates.Given theolddivisionsintheadvancedworldandtheweaknessesandparochialismofthedevelopingnationsthe absenceofconstructiveAmericaninitiativewouldattheveryleastperpetuatethepresentdriftinworldaffairs. ThatdriftcannotbehaltediftheUnitedStatesfollowsthepathwhichitisnowfashionabletoadvocate disengagement.Evenif,despitetheweightandmomentumofitspower,Americacoulddisengageitself,thereis somethingquaintlyoldfashionedintheeloquentdenunciationofUnitedStatesglobalinvolvement,especially whenitcomesfromEuropeans,whohaveshownalessthanadmirableabilitytomaintainworldpeace. Moreover,eventhemostbrilliantindictmentofUnitedStatespolicycannoterasethefactthat,despiteits allegedlylongrecordoferrorsandmisconceptions,theUnitedStateshassomehowbecometheonlypowerthat hasbeguntothink inglobaltermsandactivelyseekconstructiveworldwidearrangements.Inthisconnection,it isrevealingtonotethatinitiativessuchastheTestBanTreatyortheNonProliferationTreatywereopposedby governmentshabituallypraisedbysomecriticsofUnitedStatesglobalinvolvement.Thiscountry'scommitment tointernationalaffairsonaglobalscalehasbeendecidedbyhistory.Itcannotbeundone,andtheonlyremaining relevantquestioniswhatitsformandgoalswillbe. Thedebateonglobalismdid,however,performoneusefulfunction.Thoughmuchofthecriticismdid * notprovideameaningfulpolicyprogram, thedebatepromptedgreaterrecognitionoftheneedtoredefine America'sworldroleinthelightofnewhistoricalcircumstances.Thrustintotheworldbyitsowngrowthandby thecataclysmsoftwoworldwars,AmericafirstactivelypromotedandthenguaranteedtheWest'seconomic recoveryand militarysecurity.Thispostureofnecessityheavilymarkedbymilitarypreoccupationshas increasinglyshiftedtowardagreaterinvolvementwiththelesspoliticalandmorebasicproblemsthatmankind willfaceintheremainingthirdofthecentury. JohnKennedycaughttheessenceofAmerica'snovelpositionintheworldwhenhesawhimselfas"the firstAmericanPresidentforwhomthewholeworldwas,inasense,domesticpolitics."19Indeed,Kennedywas thefirst"globalist"presidentoftheUnitedStates.Roosevelt,forallhisinternationalism,essentiallybelievedin an1815likeglobalarrangementinwhichthe"BigFour"wouldhavespecificspheresofinfluence.Truman primarilyrespondedtoaspecificcommunistchallenge,andhispoliciesindicatedaclearregionalpriority. Eisenhowercontinuedonthesamecourse,occasionallyapplyingEuropeanprecedentstootherregions.These shiftsweresymptomaticofthechangingUnitedStatesrole.WithKennedycameasensethateverycontinent andeverypeoplehadtherighttoexpectleadershipandinspirationfromAmerica,andthatAmericaowedan almostequalinvolvementtoeverycontinentandeverypeople.Kennedy'sevocativestylewhichinsomeways appealedmoretoemotionthantointellect,stressedtheuniversalhumanismoftheAmericanmission,whilehis romanticfascinationwiththeconquestofspacereflectedhisconvictionthatAmerica'sscientificleadershipwas necessarytoitseffectiveworldrole. Globalinvolvementis,however,qualitativelydifferentfromwhathastodatebeenknownasforeign policy.Itisinimicaltoclearcutformulasandtraditionalpreferences.Butthisintellectualcomplexitydoesnot negatethefactthatforbetterorforworsetheUnitedStatesissaddledwithmajoresponsibilityforshapingthe frameworkforchange.Thispointofviewissubjecttoeasymisrepresentationandishighlyunpopularinsome circles.WorldconditionsdonotcallforaPaxAmericana,noristhistheageofAmericanomnipotence. Nevertheless,itisafactthatunlesstheUnitedStates,thefirstglobalsociety,usesitspreponderantinfluenceto givepositivedirectionandexpressiontotheacceleratingpaceofchange,thatchangenotonlymightbecome chaoswhenlinkedtooldconflictsandantipathiesbutcouldeventuallythreatentheefforttoimprovethe
*

Evenacriticwhoidentifieshimselfassympathetictothe"isolationistorneoisolationist"schoolconcludesthatthealternativesofferedby themoretraditionalstudentsofinternationalpolitics,suchasLippmannorMorgenthau,haverelativelylittleofaconstructivenaturetooffer (CharlesGati,"AnotherGrandDebate?TheLimitationistCritiqueofAmericanForeignPolicy,"WorldPolitics, October1968,especiallypp. 15051).Moreover,thepropensityofevensomeperceptivewriterstoconcentrate almostentirelyontheshortcomingsofAmericanforeign policyperformancemakesitdifficultforthemtoaccountforitsrelativelyrespectableperformanceduringthelasttwentyyearsascompared with,forexample,thatoftheEuropeanpowers.Thus,StanleyHoffmann'smassive(556pages)andinplacesstimulatingbook, Gulliver's Troubles (NewYork,1968),focusesalmostentirelyontheimpatience,wrongheadedness,misunderstanding,selfrighteousness,gullibility, condescension,inflexibility,andparanoidstyleofAmericanforeignpolicy.Thisleadshim,onamorepopularlevel,tosayinamagazine article("PolicyfortheSeventies,"Life,March21,1969)that"Americans...havebeenpreparedbyhistoryandinstinctforaworldinblack andwhite,inwhichthereiseitherharmonyoranalloutcontest."Hedoesnotexplainwhy,inthatcase,theUnitedStatesandtheSoviet Unionweresuccessfulinmaintainingpeace,whereasinthepasttheEuropeanpowershadfailedtodoso. Atthesametime,traditionalistswhoemphasizethecontinuedvitalityofnationalismareinherentlyinclinedtopostulatepoliciesthatareno longerintunewiththetimes.Thus,ontheveryeveofDeGaulle'srepudiationbytheFrenchpeople,Hoffmanncouldspeakofa "fundamentalrapprochement"withDeGaulle("AmericaandFrance,"TheNewRepublic,April12,1969,p.22).

115

natureandthecharacterofAmericandomesticlife. Tosumup:Thoughtheobjectiveofshapingacommunityofthedevelopednationsislessambitious thanthegoalofworldgovernment,itismoreattainable.ItismoreambitiousthantheconceptofanAtlantic communitybuthistoricallymorerelevanttothenewspatialrevolution.Thoughcognizantofpresentdivisions betweencommunistandnoncommunistnations,itattemptstocreateanewframeworkforinternationalaffairs notbyexploitingthesedivisionsbutratherbystrivingtopreserveandcreateopeningsforeventual reconciliation.Finally,itrecognizesthattheworld'sdevelopednationshaveacertainaffinity,andthatonlyby nurturingagreatersenseofcommunalityamongthemcananeffectiveresponsetotheincreasingthreatofglobal fragmentationwhichitselfintensifiesthegrowingworldwideimpatiencewithhumaninequalitybe mounted. ThereisthusacloseconjunctionbetweenthehistoricmeaningofAmerica'sinternaltransitionand America'sroleintheworld.Earlierinthisbook,domesticprioritieswerereducedtothreelargeareas:theneed foraninstitutionalrealignmentofAmericandemocracytoenhancesocialresponsivenessandblurtraditional distinctionsbetweengovernmentalandnongovernmentalsocialprocessestheneedforanticipatoryinstitutions tocopewiththeunintendedconsequencesoftechnologicalscientificchangetheneedforeducationalreformsto mitigatetheeffectsofgenerationalandracialconflictsandpromoterationalhumanistvaluesintheemerging newsociety. Theinternationalequivalentsofourdomesticneedsaresimilar:thegradualshapingofacommunityof thedevelopednationswouldbearealisticexpressionofouremergingglobalconsciousnessconcentrationon disseminatingscientificandtechnologicalknowledgewouldreflectamorefunctionalapproachtoman's problems,emphasizingecologyratherthanideologyboththeforegoingwouldhelptoencouragethespreadofa morepersonalizedrationalhumanistworldoutlookthatwouldgraduallyreplacetheinstitutionalizedreligious, ideological,andintenselynationalperspectivesthathavedominatedmodernhistory. ButwhateverthefuturemayactuallyholdforAmericaandfortheworld,thetechnetronicageby makingsomuchmoretechnologicallyfeasibleandelectronicallyaccessiblemakedeliberatechoiceabout moreissuesmoreimperative.Reason,belief,andvalueswillinteractintensely,puttingagreaterpremiumthan everbeforeontheexplicitdefinitionofsocialpurposes.Towhatendsshouldourpowerbedirected,howshould oursocialdialoguebepromoted,inwhatwayshouldtheneededactionbetakenthesearebothphilosophical andpoliticalissues.Inthetechnetronicera,philosophyandpoliticswillbecrucial.

116

ReferenceNotes
I:TheGlobalImpactoftheTechnetronicRevolution 1.Partofthissectionisadapted,inarevisedform,frommy"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge," Encounter, January1968. Inthisconnection,IwishtoacknowledgethepioneeringworkdoneonthisgeneralsubjectatColumbiaUniversitybyDaniel BellandatMichiganUniversitybyDonaldMichael. 2.NorbertWiener, TheHumanUseofHumanBeings, NewYork, 1967,PP.18990 3.TestimonybyDr.D.Krech, GovernmentResearchSubcommitteeoftheSenateGovernmentOperationsCommittee, as reportedby TheNewYorkTimes, April3,1968,p.32seealsoGordonR.Taylor,TheBiologicalTimeBomb,NewYork, 1967. 4. TheNewYorkTimes, January18,1969. 5.DonaldN.Michael,"SomeSpeculationsontheSocialImpactofTechnology,"mimeographedtextofaddresstothe ColumbiaSeminaronTechnologyandSocialChange,1966,p.11. 6.Michael,pp.67. 7.SirJulianHuxley,"TheCrisisinMan'sDestiny," Playboy, January1967,p.4. 8.SeeNealJ.Dean,"TheComputerComesofAge," HarvardBusinessReview,JanuaryFebruary1968,pp.8391.Onthe computerinitiated"profoundrevolutioninourpatternsofthoughtandcommunication,"seeAnthonyG.Oettinger, "EducationalTechnology,"in TowardtheYear2.018, ForeignPolicyAssociation,NewYork,1968. 9. TheUnitedStatesandtheWorldinthe1985Era, Syracuse,N.Y.,1964,pp.9091. 10.SeeJohnP.RobinsonandJamesW.Swinehart,"WorldAffairsandtheTVAudience," TelevisionQuarterly,Spring 1968. 11.CyrilE.Black,"SovietSociety:AComparativeView,"in ProspectsforSovietSociety, AllenKassof,ed.,NewYork, 1968,p.36A.B.Trowbridge,"TheAtlanticCommunityLooksto theFuture," DepartmentofStateBulletin, July17,1967, p.72. 12."TheTechnologicalGapinRussia," TheEconomist,February9,1969 13.JohnDiebold,"IstheGapTechnological?" ForeignAffairs, January1968,pp.27691. 14.ForsomeexamplesofthepredominanceofAmericancommunicationsamongtheengineeringtechnicaleliteinLatin America,seePaulJ.Deutschmannetal.,CommunicationandSocialChangeinLatinAmerica,NewYork,1968,especially pp.56,70. 15.SeeLeonardH.Marks,"AmericanDiplomacyandaChangingTechnology," TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,pp.7, 9. 16.BruceM.Russett,"IsThereaLongRunTrendtowardConcentrationintheInternationalSystem?" Journalof ComparativePoliticalStudies,April1968.Forsomewhatforcedanalogiestopastempires,seeGeorgeLiska, Imperial America,Baltimore,1966andforahighlycriticalappraisal,seeClaudeJulien, L'Empireamericain,Paris,1968,especially chaps.1,611alsoRonaldSteel, PaxAmericana, NewYork,1967. Foracriticismofthe"imperial"approach,seeStanley Hoffmann,Gulliver'sTroubles,NewYork,1968,pp.4651. 17. TheNewYorkTimes, November17,1968,citesgovernmentsourcesasindicatingthat200,000Americanciviliansare servingabroadforcommitments,seeUSCommitmentstoForeignPowers,CommitteeonForeignRelations,Washington, D.C.,1967,especiallypp.4971fordataonbases,see TheNewYorkTimes, April9,1969. 18.JuddPolk,"TheNewWorldEconomy," ColumbiaJournalofWorldBusiness, JanuaryFebruary1968,p.8,estimates thatUnitedStatesinvestmentabroadaccountsfortotaldeliveriesofsome$165billion. 19.JosephKraft,"TheSpreadofPower," TheNewYorkTimesBookReview,September22,1968,p.10(areviewof Amaury deRiencourt'sTheAmericanEmpire, NewYork,1968). 20.Inthisconnection,compareHarryMagdoff'sTheAgeofImperialism, NewYork,1969,whichseesAmericasimplyasa politicallymotivatedimperialpower,withtheRockefellerFoundation'sPresident'sFiveYearReviewandAnnualReport, 1968,whichdescribestheFoundation'sforeignactivities.TheFordFoundationcouldalsobecited. 21.HermanKahnandAnthonyJ.Wiener, TheYear2000,NewYork,1967,p.149. 22.SeeKahnandWiener,tablespp.16165and12330,forafullerdiscussionoftheassumptionsonwhichthese calculationsarebased.Seealso,however,EverettE.Hagan,"SomeFactsaboutIncomeLevelsandEconomicGrowth," ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,February1960.Haganpointsoutthatcomparisonsbetweendevelopedand underdevelopedcountriesareinsomerespectsmisleadingandtendtoexaggeratethedisparities. 23.ILOconference,September1968,asreportedby TheNewYorkTimes, September3,1968.Forsomeequallystaggering populationprojectionsforLatinAmerica,seeLouisOlivos,"2000:ANoSpaceOdyssey," Americas (OAS),August1969. 24. TheUnitedStatesandtheWorldinthe1985Era, pp.7879. 25.LesterR.Brown,"TheAgriculturalRevolutioninAsia," ForeignAffairs, July1968,p.698,andBrown'saddressbefore KansasStateUniversity,"ANewErainWorldAgriculture,"December3,1968.For1967data,showingfoodproduction outstrippingpopulationgrowthintheThirdWorld,see Ceres (FAOReview),SeptemberOctober1968,pp.1718.Fora morepessimisticassessment,seeMyrdal, TheAsianDrama,NewYork,1968,pp.417,102949. 26.See UnitedNationsYearbookofNationalAccountsStatistics, 1966,Table7B. 27.Myrdal,pp.322,54041,552ff.,1585.Seealso UnitedNationsStatisticalYearbook,1967,fordataonphysiciansper inhabitantsintheearly1960s(p.696)onnumberofoccupieddwellings,averagesize,densityofoccupation,andgeneral housingfacilities(Table202,p.708ff.)andoncaloriesperday,proteins,andindustrialconsumptionofcotton,wool, rubber,steel,tinandfertilizerintheyears19551965,coveringgeneralconsumption(pp.498511). 28.Foradiscussionofsomepertinentexamples, see TwentyThirdReportbytheCommitteeonGovernmentOperations, HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,March1968,hereinaftercitedasReport....Also Hearingbeforea SubcommitteeonGovernmentOperations,HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,January23,1968,hereinaftercited asHearing....

117

29.JosephLelyveld,"India'sStudentsDemandASafeJobintheEstablishment," TheNewYorkTimesMagazine, May 12,1968,pp.53,58foranequallydamningjudgment,seealsoMyrdal,pp.178490. 30.Myrdal,pp.1645,1649. 31.RaulPrebisch,"TheSystemandtheSocialStructureofLatinAmerica,"inLatinAmericanRadicalism,IrvingLouis Horowitz,JosuedeCastro,andJohnGerassi,eds.,NewYork,1969,p.31. 32. Report ...,pp. 78. 33. Hearing... ,p.96. 34. Report ...,p.17. 35. Report ...,p.9,quotingthetestimonyofDr.C.V.Kidd,headofthePhysicsDepartmentoftheAmericanUniversity inBeirut. 36.WilliamKornhauser, ThePoliticsofMassSociety, Glencoe,111., 1959. 37.H.Jaguaribe,"ForeignTechnicalAssistanceandNationalDevelopment,"papersubmittedatPrinceton,1965,pp.2526, ascitedin Hearing ....p.57seealsoIrvingLouisHorowitz,"PoliticalLegitimacyandtheInstitutionalizationofCrisesin LatinAmerica," ComparativePoliticalStudies, April1968,especiallypp.6465. 38.See,forexample,WilliamH.GrierandPriceM.Cobbs,BlackRage, NewYork,1969. 39.Myrdal,p.471seealsopp.46769forurbangrowthdatacomparedwithnationalgrowthforfullerdataonthegrowth ofcitiesin theThirdWorld,seeG.Breese, UrbanizationinNewlyDevelopingCountries,EnglewoodCliffs,N.J.,1966. 40.SamuelP.Huntington, PoliticalOrderinChangingSocieties, NewHavenandLondon,1968,p.290,citingalsoBertF. HoselitzandMyronWeiner,"EconomicDevelopmentandPoliticalStabilityinIndia," Dissent,Vol.8,Spring1961,p.177, andBenjaminB.RingerandDavidL.Sills,"PoliticalExtremistsinIran," PublicOpinion Quarterly,Vol.16,19521953,pp. 69394. 41.Myrdal,p.117. 42.Forausefulandpertinentdiscussionoftherelationshipofviolenceandeconomicdevelopment,seeBruceM.Russettet al., WorldHandbookofPoliticalandSocialIndicators, NewHaven,1964,especiallypp.304310andJohnH.Kautsky, CommunismandthePoliticsofDevelopment,NewYork,1968,especiallychap.10,"CommunismandEconomic Development,"coauthoredwithRogerW.Benjamin.Forasomewhatdifferentbreakdownofsocieties,seeCyrilE.Black, TheDynamicsofModernization, NewYork,1966,p.150.Foramuchmoreoptimisticprognostication,seeWaltRostow, TheStagesofEconomicGrowth, Cambridge,Mass.,1960,p.127. 43.Myrdal,p.300. 44.A.Barber,"The20thCenturyRenaissance,"privatepaper,InstituteofPoliticsandPlanning,Washington,D.C.,1968, pp.1,8. 45.InFriedrichEngels, HerrEugenDuhring'sRevolutionandScience,ascitedbyD.G.Brennan,"Weaponry,"in Toward theYear2018, NewYork,1968,p.2. 46.SeeBrennan, ibid., p.19.ThispossibilityisdevelopedfurtherbyM.W.Thringinhisessay"RobotsontheMarch,"in UnlessPeaceComes,NigelCalder,ed.,London,1968,pp.15564. 47.GordonJ.F.MacDonald,"HowtoWrecktheEnvironment,"inUnlessPeaceComes, p.181. 48.VictorC.Ferkiss, TechnologicalMan:TheMythandtheReality, NewYork,1969,p.199MichaelHarrington, AmericanPowerintheTwentiethCentury, NewYork,1967,pp.39,43,48alsotheeloquentpleabyAurelioPecceiof OlivettiCorporation,"ConsiderationsandtheNeedforWorldwidePlanning,"deliveredinAkademgorodok,USSR, September12,1967(mimeograph). II:TheAgeofVolatileBelief 1.PierreTeilharddeChardin,ThePhenomenonofMan,NewYork,1961,p.183. 2.SeeClaudeLeviStrauss, TheSavageMind,Chicago,1966. 3.Inthisconnection,seeJacquesSoustelle, LesQuatreSoleils,Paris,1967.Inlivelyterms,Soustelleattacksthe progressivetheoryofhistoryasexpressedbyMarx,Spengler,Toynbee,andTeilharddeChardin. Foramorecomplexanalysis,seeMichelFoucault,Folieetderaison, Paris,1961Americanedition, Madnessand Civilization,NewYork, 1965. 4.TeilharddeChardin,pp.17879. 5.See,forexample,JulesMonnerot, SociologyandPsychologyofCommunism, Boston,1960. 6.Inthisconnection,interestingdataareprovidedbyJacquesToussaert, LeSentimentreligieuxenFlandrealafindu Moyenage, Paris, 1963. 7."ThewriterknowsofnoinstanceinpresentdaySouthAsiawhere religionhasinducedsocialchange"(Myrdal,p.103).SeealsoTeilharddeChardin,pp.20911,foradiscussionofthe passivityoforientalreligions,andKavalamM.Panikkar, HinduSocietyatCrossRoads, Bombay,1955. 8.Kh.Momjan, TheDynamicTwentiethCentury, Moscow,1968,p. 21. 9.TeilharddeChardin,p.257. 10. Ibid., p.211. 11.Rostow, TheStagesofEconomicGrowth, pp.16263 seealso p.158,whereMarxismisdescribedas"asystemfullof flawsbutfullalsooflegitimatepartialinsights,agreatformalcontributiontosocialscience,amonstrousguidetopublic policy." 12.JacquesEllul, TheTechnologicalSociety, NewYork,1965,p.
290.

13.KarlMarx,writingin1871,ascitedbyLewisS.Feuer,"KarlMarxandthePrometheanComplex," Encounter, December1968,p.

118

14.ThesetermswereusedbyJamesH.Billington,"ForceandCounterforceinEasternEurope," ForeignAffairs, October 1968,p.34. 15.DanielandGabrielCohnBendit, LeGauchisme,remedealamaladiesenileducommunisme, Paris,1968. 16.LeszekKolakowski,"ThePermanentandTransitoryMeaningofMarxism," NowaKultura, No.4,1957. 17. Praxis, MayJune1967,p.431. 18.Kolakowski,"HopeandtheFabricofHistory," NowaKultura, No.38,1957.Fora recentandveryperceptiveanalysis ofKolakowski'sthought,seeLeopoldLabedz,"KolakowskionMarxismandBeyond," Encounter, March1969,pp.7788. 19.SeeAdamSchaff, MarxsizmaJednostkaLudzka,Warsaw,1965,p.56,andp.28ff.,whereSchaffacknowledgeshis debttoProfessorErichFrommforhisimprovedunderstandingofMarxism.SchaffwasexpelledfromtheCentralCommittee ofthePolishCommunistParty in1968. 20.Thisresultmakesitalsoreminiscentoffascism.Seemy"DemocraticSocialismorSocialFascism?" Dissent,Summer 1965.Seealsothenextchapterforfurtherdiscussion. 21.OntheproblemofauthorityandlegitimacyincontemporaryCatholicism,seeGeorgeN.Shuster,ed., Freedomand AuthorityintheWest, NotreDame,1967,especiallythecontributionofthelateJohnCourtneyMurray,S.J. 22.MigueldeUnamuno, TheTragicSenseofLife, NewYork,1954,P.77. 23.LettertoCardinalKonig,ArchbishopofVienna,January14,1969. 24.Foranaccountgenerallysympatheticto theconservativepointofview,seeUlisseFloridi,S.J.,RadicalismoCattolico Brasiliano, Rome,1968.Foramoregeneralaccount,ErnstHalperin, NationalismandCommunisminChile, Cambridge, Mass.,1965andWilliamV.D'AntoniaandFrederickB.Pike,Religion,RevolutionandReform, NewYork,1964. 25.ThesetwowordsarethetitleofGaraudy'sbookDel'anathemeaudialogue, Paris,1965,discussingtheChristian Marxistdialogue. 26.Ascitedbythe WashingtonPost, January7,1969. 27.Forasimilarpointofview,seeEmilePin,S.J.,"LesMotivationsdesconduitesreligieusesetlepassaged'unecivilisation pretechniqueaunecivilisationtechnique," SocialChange,Vol.13,1966. 28.SeeHarveyCox,TheSecularCity, NewYork,1965. 29. Ibid., p.69. 30.PierreTrotignoninL'Arc, Paris,No.3,19661968,ascitedbyRaymondAron,"AttheBarricades," Encounter,August 1968,p.23. 31.AbbieHoffman,RevolutionfortheHellofIt, NewYork,1968.Thebestanalysisoftheideologyofthe"student revolution"isthearticlebyLeopoldLabedz,"StudentsandRevolution," Survey (London),July1968. 32.AscitedbyN.Molchanov,"StudentsRebelintheWest:TheMeaning,theCausesandGoals," LiteraturnayaGazeta, November6, 1968. 33.PaulJacobsandSaulLandau, TheNewRadicals,NewYork,1966,p.7. 34.Speakingin1967attheFreeUniversityinWestBerlin,ascitedbyLabedz,"StudentsandRevolution,"p.6. 35. Ibid., p.7. 36.Molchanov. 37.SeeRobertP.Wolff,BarringtonMoore,Jr.,andHerbertMarcuse,ACritiqueofPureTolerance, Boston,1965. 38.Compare,forexample,thedemandsoftheWarsawstudents,adoptedinMarch1968,withthedemandsoftheMexican studentsofSeptemberofthesameyear(Survey, July1968,p.114 TheNewYorkTimes, March28andSeptember9,1968). 39.ThispointiswellmadebyProfessorZ.Bauman,awellknownWarsawsociologistexpelledfromPolandin1968after thestudentoutbreakofMarch,inhisintroductiontoaspecialdocumentaryvolumeon thoseevents,publishedinParisbyInstytutLiteracki, WydarzeniaMarcowe1968, 1969. 40.SeeMelvinLasky,"RevolutionDiary," Encounter, August1968,pp.8889. 41. TheNewLeft,memorandumpreparedfortheCommitteeontheJudiciary,UnitedStatesSenate,Washington,D.C., 1968,p.23,citingalsodatafromJackNewfield,A PropheticMinority,NewYork,1966. 42."TheHooligansofPeaceSquare," ScinteiaTineretului, July5,1968. 43.Black, TheDynamicsofModernization, p.31. 44.Onthis,seealsoKennethKeniston,"SocialChangeandYouthinAmerica,"in TheChallengeofYouth, ErikH.Erikson, ed.,NewYork,1961. 45.SeeJohanHuizinga,WaningoftheMiddleAges, especiallychap.1on"TheViolentTenorofLife,"NewYork,1954. 46.SeeBlack,TheDynamicsofModernization,fordescriptiveandsequentialanalysis. 47.Onthis,forUnitedStatesexamplesseeMarkGerzon, TheWholeWorldIsWatching, NewYork,1969,pp.5254,73, 18990foramoresystematic treatmentpertainingtotheThirdWorld,seeDonaldK.Emmerson, StudentsandPoliticsin DevelopingNations,NewYork,1968,includingasimilarconclusiononp.414. 48.MarshallMcLuhan, TheMarshallMcLuhanDewLine, No.1,1968,p.15. 49.SeePaulSigmund,ed., TheIdeologiesoftheDevelopingNations, NewYork,1963,especiallypp.1217.Fora systematicevaluationoftheappealandmeaningoftheconceptofequalitywithinonenewnation,seeJamesC.Scott, PoliticalIdeologyinMalaysia:RealityandtheBeliefsofanElite, NewHaven,1968,pp.19496.Formoregeneral treatment,DavidApter,ed., IdeologyandDiscontent, Glencoe,Ill.,1964andCliffordGeertz,ed.,OldSocietiesandNew States:TheQuestforModernityinAsiaandAfrica, NewYork,1963. 50.Forexample,seeLeopoldSenghor, AfricanSocialism,NewYork,1963. 51.TomMboya,FreedomandAfter, Boston,1963,p.262. 52.ItisamongthemthatFrantzFanon'sTheWretchedoftheEarth(NewYork,1965)hasthewidestappeal.SeealsoF.J. Marsal,"LatinAmericanIntellectualsandtheProblemofChange," SocialResearch, Winter1966,pp.56292. 53.Theyhavethusbecome"tutelarydemocracies."Cf.EdwardShils, PoliticalDevelopmentintheNewStates, TheHague, 1965,pp.6067. 54.SeethehighlystimulatingreviewofMichelFoucault'sbook,LesMotsetleschoses (Paris,1966),byJeanMarie Domenague,TemoignageChretien, March1968. 55.VictorC.Ferkiss,p.241.

119

Ill:Communism:TheProblemofRelevance 1.For insightsintoStalin'scharacter,seeMilovanDjilas,ConversationswithStalin, NewYork,1962andSvetlana Alliluyeva,TwentyLetterstoaFriend,NewYork,1967. 2.SeeLeonardSchapiro, TheOriginofCommunistAutocracy,London,1956andIsaacDeutscher, TheProphetOutcast, London,1963. 3.LeonSmolinski,"GrinevetskiiandSovietIndustrialization," Survey, April1968,p.101.Seealsothecriticalcommentby AlecNoveonSmolinski'sanalysisandSmolinski'sreplyinSurvey, WinterSpring,1969. 4.Smolinski,p.109. 5.Deutscher,pp.100115. 6.Rostow,p.66. 7.Rostow,p.95.Seealsopp.9697fordetailedtablesbyWarrenNutter,inwhichthepersistentlagincertainareasof RussianindustrialproductioniscomparedwithAmericanproduction. 8.Black,"SovietSociety:AComparativeView,"in ProspectsforSovietSociety, pp.4243. 9.Black,pp.4042,providesausefulsummaryoftheirfindingsandthebasisforreachingtheconclusions. 10.Seethefascinatingcumulative table,inStefanKurowski, HistorycznyProcesWzrostuGospodarczego,Warsaw,1963, p.335. 11.See TryhunaLudu, July8,1963,and NoweDrogi,No.8,1963. 12.SpeechofNovember19,1962. 13.N.Sviridov,"PartyConcernfortheUpbringingoftheScientificTechnicalIntelligentsia," Kommunist,No.18,p.38. 14.P.Demichev,"TheConstructionofCommunismandtheGoalsofSocialSciences," Kommunist, No.10,p.26. 15.E.G.R.KosolapovandP.Simush,"TheIntelligentsiainSocialistSociety," Pravda, May25,1968. 16.D.I.Chesnokov,"AggravationoftheIdeologicalandandPoliticalStruggleandContemporaryPhilosophical Revisionism," VoprosyFilosofii,No.12.ThisimportantarticlediscussesthegeneralstateofcontemporaryMarxismaswell asthesignificanceofcontemporaryrevisionism. 17.D.I.Chesnokov,"CurrentProblemsofHistoricalMaterialism," Kommunist, No.6,1968,p.48.SeealsoG.Smirnov, "SocialistHumanism," Pravda,December16,1968. 18.G.Khromushin,"SharpeningofWorldIdeologicalStruggle," InternationalAffairs (Moscow),No.12,1968. 19.T.Timofeyev,"TheLeadingRevolutionaryForce," Pravda, December24,1968.TimofeyevisthedirectoroftheUSSR AcademyofSciencesInstituteoftheInternationalWorkingClassMovementandacorrespondingmemberoftheUSSR AcademyofSciences. 20. Pravda, April11,1968. 21.S.Kovalev,"On'Peaceful'andNonPeacefulCounterrevolution," Pravda, September11,1968. 22.AusefulsourceonSoviet"futurology"isthereportbyaSovietscholar,I.BestuzhevLada,"LesEtudessurl'aveniren URSS," AnalyseetPrevision (Futuribles),No.5,1968. 23.See,forexample,A.D.Smirnov,"Socialism,theScientificTechnologicalRevolutionandLongRangeForecasting," VoprosyFilosofii, No.9,1968I.G.Kurakov,"ForecastingScientificTechnologicalProgress"andM.K.Petrov,"Some ProblemsoftheOrganizationofKnowledgeintheEpochoftheScientificTechnologicalRevolution," VoprosyFilosofii, No. 10,1968andV.G.Afanasev, NauchnoeUpravlenieObshchestvom, Moscow,1968. 24."ADiscussion:TheProblemsoftheUnityoftheCommunistMovement," ZolnierzWolnosci, January21,1969 particularlythecontributionsbyS.TrampczynskiJ.Urban,"HandsClosetoPulse," Polityka, June9,1969. 25.V.RomaninContemporanul, January3,January10,1969(italicshis).Roman,amemberoftheCentralCommitteeand aformerministerintheRumaniangovernment,isaprofessorandengineerbytraining.Heistheauthorof severalbookson thescientifictechnicalrevolution. 26.Cheprakov,Izvestia,August18,1968. 27.SeeC.FreemanandA.Young,TheResearchandDevelopmentEffortinWesternEurope,NorthAmericaandtheSoviet Union, OECD,p.33alsotheexhaustivestudy SciencePolicyintheUSSR, OECD,1969. 28.Forotherexamples,see SciencePolicyintheUSSR, p.95. 29. Izvestia, October28,1968. 30.AcademicianP.L.Kapitsa,KomsomolskaiaPravda, January19,1968. 31. ProblemsofCommunism, JulyAugustandSeptemberOctober1968.SeealsoV.Chornovil, TheChornovilPapers, NewYork,1968. 32.TextpublishedinTheNewYorkTimes, July22,1968.(Citationsinthetextarefromthisversion.) 33. VestnikAkademiiNauk,No.3,1966,p.138. 34. V.Roman,"ForaMarxistTheoryoftheTechnicalScientificRevolution," Contemporanul. 35.WalterUlbricht,"TheSignificanceandVitalForceoftheTeachingsofKarlMarxforOurEra,"pamphlet,Berlin,May 2,1968. 36.SeePeterC.Ludz, ParteieliteimWandel, Cologne,1968. 37.See,forexample,thewarningbyP.Demichev,"TheConstructionofCommunismandtheGoalsofSocialSciences," Kommunist,No.10,1968,p.26.Foraprovocativediscussionofthetrendtowardgreaterfusionofpartybureaucratic experiencewithtechnicalcom petence,seeGeorgeFischer, TheSovietSystemandModernSociety,NewYork,1968. 38.Foranexcellentgeneralsurvey,seeRichardLowenthal,WorldCommunism:TheDisintegrationofaSecularFaith, NewYork,1966. 39.SeeinthisconnectiontheperceptiveessaybyHenryL.Roberts,"RussiaandtheWest:AComparisonandContrast," TheSlavicReview,March1964. 40.Seethestatementin Kommunist,No.15,1963,especiallyp.26,whichattackstheChineseconceptofanabsoluteline fortheinternationalmovement,andtheletteroftheSovietleadershipofJuly1963totheChineseleaders,explicitlyrejecting theconceptofagenerallinefortheinternationalmovement.Thisperiodhasbeenanalyzedbymeinmy TheSovietBloc: UnityandConflict, rev.ed.,Cambridge,Mass.,1967.

120

41.RogerGaraudy,Pourunmodelefrancaisdusocialisme,Paris,1968,pp.14849. 42.D.Susnjic, KnjizevneNovine, March2,1968.ForusefulsummariesofYugoslavviewsconcerningamultipartysystem, seealsotheRFEresearchpapersofOctober6,1967,andMay21,1968,bothofwhichsummarizetheevolutionofYugoslav thinkingonthesubject. 43.FordataonthegrowthoftheCzechoslovakintelligentsiaandforadiscussionofitsimplications,seeZ.Valenta,"The WorkingClassandtheIntelligentsia," NovaMysl, February1968. 44.SeetheverythoughtfuldiscussionbyA.Hegedus,"OntheAlternativesofSocialDevelopment,"and"Realityand Necessity," Kortars, June,July1967.Foraconservativeresponsetotheabove,seeP.Varkonyi,"TheDevelopmentand ProblemsoftheSocialistSociety," Kortars, November1968.Eventhemoreconservativeresponsedidconcedethe desirabilityofsuchdiscussion,whichwentmuchfurtherthananythingrecentlypublishedineithertheSovietUnionorthe othermoreconservativeCommuniststates. 45.SeeinthisconnectiontherevealingpolemicsbetweentheSovietsandtheChineseonthesubjectoftherevolutionary roleoftheAmericanNegro:R.A.Remington,"RevolutionaryRoleoftheAfroAmerican:AnAnalysisofSinoSoviet PolemicsontheHistoricalImportanceoftheAmericanNegro,"CenterforInternationalStudies,M.I.T.,October1968. 46.TangTsou,"TheCulturalRevolutionandtheChinesePoliticalSystem," TheChinaQuarterly, AprilJune,1969. 47.AlexanderEckstein, CommunistChina'sEconomicGrowthandForeignTrade,NewYork,1966. 48.O.E.Clubb, TwentiethCenturyChina,NewYork,1964,pp.41324.SeealsoPingti HoandTangTsou,eds., Chinain Crisis, Chicago,1967andforamoregeneraldiscussion,J.K.Fairbank, TheChineseWorldOrder, Cambridge,Mass.,1968. 49.JohnH.Kautsky,p.187. IV:TheAmericanTransition 1.See,forexample,RonaldSegal'sAmerica'sRecedingFuture, NewYork,1968orGioseRimanelli,TragicaAmerica, Genoa,1968. 2.AhighlyinformativeaccountiscontainedinthefullpagearticlebyHenryLieberman,"Technology:AlchemistofRoute 128," TheNewYorkTimes, January8,1968. 3.AnexcellentandwelldocumentedsummarycanbefoundinTheAdvancingSouth:ManpowerProspectsandProblems, NewYork,1968. 4.DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"in IndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonand WilbertMoore,eds.,NewYork,1968,p.149. 5.NotablyBell,abovealsothemoregeneral,lessdocumentedreflectionsinthefourthannualreportofHarvardUniversity, ProgramonTechnologyandSociety andVictorFerkiss, TechnologicalMan:TheMythand theReality.Foranextremely usefulsummaryofpresenttrendsinAmerica,seeTowardaSocialReport,DepartmentofHealth,EducationandWelfare, Washington,D.C.,1969.Forarevealingandinplacesmovingaccountoftheimpactofallthisonsomeof theyoung,see MarkGerzon,TheWholeWorldIsWatching. 6. TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,p.9. 7.Forafullerdiscussion,seeNASA:TheTechnologyUtilizationProgram, 1967,p.10andeditorialin SaturdayReview, April19,1969. 8.SeeAnthonyG.OettingerandSemaMarks,"EducationalTechnology:NewMythsandOldRealities"(discussionand reply),TheHarvardEducationalReview,Fall1968. 9.Ascitedby ReturntoResponsibility, areportbytheThomasJeffersonResearchCenter,Pasadena,1969,p.5. 10.Bell,p.175. 11. TowardaSocialReport, p.43. 12. Ibid., p.42. 13.BureauoftheCensusreport,citedby TheNewYorkTimes,August20,1969. 14. ReportoftheNationalAdvisoryCommissiononCivilDisorders, Washington,D.C.,1968,p.337.Abreakdownofthe distributionofthepooriscontainedinthereportofthePresident'sCommissiononIncomeMaintenancePrograms,released onNovember12,1969seealso JointReport oftheCommerceandLaborDepartmentscitedby TheNewYorkTimes, February2,1970. 15.BureauoftheCensusreportNathanGlazer,"TheNegroes'StakeinAmerica'sFuture," TheNewYorkTimesMagazine, September22,1968,p.31 TheEconomist, May10,1969,p.51. 16. TheNewYorkTimes, May11,1969.Itshould,however,benotedthatin1949,59percentoftheblacksexpressed satisfactionwith theirhousing.Thispresumablyindicateshigherexpectationsin1969.Onhousing,see JointReport (note14,above). 17."CharacteristicsofStudentsand TheirColleges,"astudybytheBureauoftheCensus,ascitedin TheNewYorkTimes, June15,1969. 18.Glazer,pp.31,90seealso JointReport. 19. TheEconomist, p.51. 20. TowardaSocialReport, pp.1527 Time, October31,1969,p.42. 21. Butforaratherpessimisticprojectionandassessment,see"America'sFrustratedSouth," TheEconomist, June14,1969. 22.Seethespecialreport"BlackAmerica," Newsweek,June30,1969,p.23.Forabroaderanalysis,seeThePoliticsof Protest (TheSkolnickReporttotheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPreventionofViolence),NewYork,1968, especiallychap.4,"BlackMilitancy." 23.GloriaSteinem,"LinkbetweentheNewPoliticsandtheOld," SaturdayReview,August2,1969,p.19. 24.Forausefuldiscussionofthefragmentationofpoliticalcultureindemocracy,seeArendLijphart,"Typologiesof DemocraticSystems," ComparativePoliticalStudies, April1968. 25.GusTyler,ThePoliticalImperative, NewYork,1968. 26.Forstrikinglyconflictingassessmentsoftheimpactofthatexpansion,seeEmmanuelMesthene,"HowTechnologyWill ShapetheFuture" (Science, July12,1968),whoarguesstronglythattheroleofgovernmentisenhancedandFerkiss,pp. 14647,whoarguesquitethecontrarypointofview.Forabroadgaugedandstimulatingdiscussion,seePeterDrucker, The AgeofDiscontinuity, NewYork,1969.

121

27.FromtheintroductiontoEllul, TheTechnologicalSociety, byRobertK.Merton,p.vi. 28.Seeourearlierdiscussion,PartIV,p.201. 29.DonaldN.Michael, TheNextGeneration, NewYork,1965,p.16. 30.RobertS.Liebert,"TowardsaConceptualModelofRadicalandMilitantYouth:AStudyofColumbiaUndergraduates," presentationtotheAssociationforPsychoanalyticMedicine,April1,1961,p.28. 31.KennethKeniston,"YouHavetoGrowUpinScarsdaletoKnowHowBadThingsReallyAre," TheNewYorkTimes Magazine,April27,1969,p.128.Theforegoingreflectsthe argumentofhislargerbook,YoungRadicals:Noteson CommittedYouth, NewYork,1968. 32.Gerzon,p.26. 33. Ibid., pp.5253,73,185,190. 34.Michael, TheNextGeneration,p.41seealsoRobertA.Nisbett,"TwilightofAuthority," ThePublicInterest, Spring 1969. 35.TestimonyofDr.BrunoBettelheim,professorofpsychologyandpsychiatry,UniversityofChicago,totheHouse SpecialSubcommitteeonEducation,March20,1969. 36.SeetheargumentdevelopedbyEdgarC.Friedenberg,"TheHiddenCostsofOpportunity," AtlanticMonthly,February 1969,pp.8490. 37.SeeT.B.Bottomore,CriticsofSociety:RadicalThoughtinNorthAmerica,NewYork,1968. 38.SeeDanielBell,"CharlesFourier:ProphetofEupsychia," TheAmericanScholar,Winter196869. 39.Friedenberg,p.89. 40.WilliamKornhauser, ThePoliticsofMassSociety. 41.Forsomeperceptivecomments,seeAndrewKnight,"America'sFrozenLiberals," TheProgressive, February1969. 42.Foradiscussionofthepositionofthe liberalintheacademicworld,seeIrvingLouisHorowitz,"YoungRadicalsand theProfessorialCritics," Commonweal, January31,1969,pp.55256. 43.Foragooddiscussion,seeparticularlyp.54ofthespecialissueof TheEconomist, May10,1969. 44. FromalecturebyProfessorJosephBlau,AspenInstituteofHumanisticStudies,January1969. 45.QuitesymptomaticisthetitleoftherecentbookbyArthurSchlesinger,Jr., TheCrisisofConfidence, Boston,1969. 46.AgoodaccountofrightandleftextremistgroupsisinGeorgeThayer,TheFartherShoresofPolitics,NewYork,1967. 47.Fortheoutlinesoftheneededeffort,seethe Report...onCivilDisorders, especiallypp.22526. V:AmericaandtheWorld 1.Forsomecomparativedata, see TowardaSocialReport, pp.8182. 2.StrongovertonesofthisviewaretobefoundinJohnMcDermott's"IntellectualsandTechnology," TheNewYorkReview ofBooks, July31,1969itisevenmorestronglyarguedinTheodoreRoszak, TheMakingofa CounterCulture, NewYork, 1969. 3.SeeparticularlyKonradLorenz,OnAggression, NewYork,1966alsoN.Tinbergen,"OnWarandPeaceinAnimalsand Man," Science, June28,1968. 4.Foracriticismoftheradicalattacksontheindustrialmilitarycomplex,seeStanleyHoffmann,Gulliver'sTroubles, p. 149. 5.SeeFrankS.Hopkins,"AmericanEducationalSystemsfortheLessDevelopedCountries,"Washington,D.C.,1967 (mimeograph),andhisproposalforanEducationalDevelopmentAdministration. 6.IrvingLouisHorowitzetal., LatinAmericanRadicalism. StudentpartisanshipinLatinAmericaiswellcoveredin chapters811inDonaldK.Emmerson, StudentsandPoliticsinDevelopingNations.
7. SeeClaudioVeliz,"CentralismandNationalisminLatinAmerica,"ForeignAffairs, October1968. 8.Seemyarticle,"PeaceandPower,"Encounter, November1968. 9.ForastimulatinginterpretationofRussianhistoryandofits"lag"visavistheWest,seeHughSetonWatson,TheRussianEmpire, 18011917, Oxford,1967,especiallypp.72842. 10.IshareinthisrespecttheconclusionsreachedbyTheodoreDraperinhis"WorldPolitics:ANewEra?" Encounter, August1968,p.12. 11.Seemyarticle,"MeetingMoscow's'LimitedCoexistence,'"TheNewLeader, December16,1968. 12.Montreal Star,September9,1969. 13.Forafullerdiscussion,seemy"GlobalPoliticalPlanning,"PublicInterest, Winter1969. 14.Seeonthisthepublicopinionpollsanalyzedin PeaceResearchinJapan, Tokyo,1968,pp.2571.TheypointtorisingJapaneseex pectationsofnuclearproliferation. 15.SeeinthisconnectionthespeechbyLeonardMarks,directorofUSIA,"ABlueprintforaNewSchoolhouse,"November8,1967. 16.FordetailedcalculationsofthelikelyfinancialshareofcontributorsotherthantheUnitedStates,see TheEconomist,August9,1969,p. 13. 17.Forafullerelaborationoftheseproposals,seemy"TheFrameworkforEastWestReconciliation,"ForeignAffairs, January1968. 18.SeetherevealinganalysisofforeignattitudestowardtheUnitedStatesinthepollscitedby TheFutureofU.S.PublicDiplomacy, report bytheSubcommitteeonForeignAffairsoftheHouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,December22,1968,especiallypp.1518. 19.ArthurSchlesinger,Jr., AThousandDays, Boston,1965,p.559.

122

Index
AgeofDiscontinuity,122 Agnew,96 agriculturalrevolution,20 AgriculturalRevolution,117 Albania,74 Algeria,14,16,17,21 AmericaintheTechnetronicAge,5,117 AmericanChallenge,18 Americanrevolution,33,78,85,86,90,91,92,98, 104 AmericanRevolution,3,33,78 Americanization,18,27 anarchism,42,94 Argentina,14 Aron,119 Drucker,121 LawrenceAppley,79

123