Washington, DC 20007ph 202-625-0370
To: The Democratic Governors AssociationFrom: The Mellman Group, Inc.Re: Tomblin Continues To Lead MaloneyDate: September 21, 2011
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 500 likely 2011 Special Election voters in West Virginia. Interviewswere conducted by telephone September 16-19, 2011 using a registration-based sample. The margin of error for this surveyis +/-4.4% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.
With only two weeks until Election Day, Acting West Virginia Governor Earl Ray Tomblincontinues to lead Bill Maloney by a double-digit margin in the race for governor.Governor Tomblin haswithstood a torrent ofnegative personal attacks tomaintain a 10-point leadover his Republicanchallenger. As in ourAugust survey, strongsupport for Tomblin (32%)far outweighs strongsupport for Maloney (21%).Independents split (37%Tomblin, 35% Maloney),while Tomblin does a better job consolidating hisparty base than Maloney,with 75% of Democratssupporting Tomblin and70% of Republicans supporting Maloney. Tomblin leads by two points among men, but by18-points among women; by two points among voters under 50 (42%-40%), and 13-pointsamong voters 50 or older (47%-34%)
. Tomblin also has the edge in the state’s three most
populous media markets, including a 58%-30% lead in the Charleston-Huntington market.Maloney has become better known to voters, but he has not become better liked. Thirty-eightpercent (38%) view him favorably, an 8-point increase since August, but 27% view himunfavorably, a 14-point increase. By contrast, Tomblin continues to be viewed favorably by afull majority (51%) of voters.
Tomblin Leads Maloney By Double Digits