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Reasoning under uncertainty
Probability Calculus
Probability Theory
Probability theory for representing uncertainty
Rev. Thomas Bayes (1702-1761)
Bayes’ Theorem; Conditionalization
Motivation: Breast Cancer
Will there be a hail storm?
Motivation
Bayesian Decision Theory
Decision theory: fog example
Probabilistic Causality
Are Bayesian networks Bayesian?
Bayesian AI
Introduction to Bayesian Networks
Example: Lung Cancer Diagnosis
Nodes and Values
Nodes and Values (cont.)
Lung cancer example: nodes and values
Lung cancer example: network structure
Structure terminology and layout
Conditional Probability Tables
Lung cancer example: CPTs
The Markov Property
Reasoning with Bayesian Networks
Types of Reasoning
Types of Evidence
Reasoning with numbers
Understanding of Bayesian Networks (Semantics)
Representing the joint probability distribution
Pearl’s Network Construction Algorithm
Compactness and Node Ordering
D-separation (cont’d)
Causal Ordering
Causal Ordering (cont’d)
Bayesian Networks: Summary
Inference Algorithms: Overview
Inference in chains
Example: ¢
Earthquake example
Inference in polytrees: message passing
Message propagation
Message-passing algorithm: features
Inference in multiply connected networks
Clustering methods
Jensen join-tree method
Jensen join-tree method (cont.)
Approximate inference with stochastic simulation
Causal modeling
Causal inference
Inference: Summary
Extensions to Bayesian Networks
Making Decisions
Expected Utility
Decision Networks
Type of Nodes
Example: Football Team
Evaluating Decision Networks: Algorithm
Evaluating Decision Networks: Example
Decision Table Algorithm
Fever problem description
Fever decision network
Fever decision table
Types of actions
Sequential decision making
Dynamic Belief Networks
Fever DBN
DBN reasoning
Dynamic Decision Network
Fever DDN
Extensions: Summary
Uses of Bayesian Networks
NEXT
(AFTER LUNCH)
Lab session using Netica
Room 1XX, First Floor
LUNCH!
Linear and Discrete Models
Learning Linear Parameters
Learning Conditional Probability Tables
Learning Causal Structure
Verma-Pearl Algorithm
CI learning example
Statistical Equivalence
Bayesian LBN: Cooper & Herskovits’ K2
Cooper & Herskovits
Learning Variable Order
Statistical Equivalence Learners
GES
Full Causal Learners
CaMML
MML Metric
MML Metric for Linear Models
MML Metric for discrete models
MML search algorithms
MML Sampling
Empirical Results
KEBN: Overview
Knowledge Engineering with Bayesian Networks (KEBN)
KEBN
KEBN Lifecycle Model
Notes on Lifecycle Model
Notes on Lifecycle Model (cont.)
KEBN Spiral Model
Variables
Variable values/states
Graphical structure
Relationships between variables
Relationships between variables (cont.)
Probabilities
Probability Elicitation
Probability Elicitation (cont.)
Local model structure
Elicitation by Partition
Independence of Causal Inﬂuence (ICI)
Noisy-OR nodes
Noisy-OR parameters
Classiﬁcation Tree Repn
Object-oriented BNs
Decision Analysis
Eliciting Decision Networks
Model Evaluation
The need to prototype!
Prototypes
More recent KEBN methodologies
KEBN Summary
BN Applications
Medical applications: network structure
The ALARM network
Monash BN Applns: Overview
Monash BN Applns (cont)
References
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Bayesian AI Tutorial

# Bayesian AI Tutorial

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07/25/2013

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