TO: INTERESTED PARTIESFROM: ADAM GELLER, NATIONAL RESEARCH INC.DATE:SEPT. 30, 2011RE:POLLING RESULTS IN PENNSYLVANIA
1.Senator Robert Casey exhibits early signs of vulnerability.
Casey’s favorable rating is 47%, his job approval rating is 46%, and his ballotscore against a generic Republican is only 46%.
Among crucial Independent voters, Casey’s job approval is 41% and his ballotagainst an unnamed generic Republican is 45%.
The top of the ticket will not provide cover for Casey: President Obama’s jobapproval number is only 48%.
2.In a biographical description of the major Republican candidates running for theparty’s nomination, John Vernon is clearly the most attractive candidate to our baseand to swing voters, based on the following descriptions, read only to Republicanand Independent respondents.
13%Laureen Cummings is a Nurse and small business owner who helped form the ScrantonTea Party.6%Tom Smith is a coal industry executive and the outgoing Chairman of the Indiana-Armstrong Patriots, a Tea Party organization.6%David Christian is a businessman and Vietnam Veteran who served in government andunsuccessfully ran for Congress previously in the 1980’s.5%Marc Scaringi is an attorney who previously served as a Legislative Aide to Rick Santorum on Capitol Hill15%Steven Welch is a successful businessman and former congressional candidate who willfocus on job creation, and was previously a Democrat.29%John Vernon is a retired US Army Colonel who served his country for over 32 years,serving in Operations Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom, and as a Department of DefenseInspector General. He is a conservative Republican.24%Undecided/Neither/Other
John leads the pack among key groups, including Republicans (31%),conservatives (32%) seniors (30%), PA “T” residents (33%), most major mediamarkets including Pittsburgh (41%), Wilkes Barre/Scranton (47%), Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon/York (29%) and Philadelphia (18%). He also leads amongObama unfavorable (38%) and Toomey favorables (35%)