Raghunath Babu T J

Section C, Roll No. 11250

Wilkins Plant- Demand Forecasting Decision Sheet

Objective:
To determine the forecasting method used to calculate PVB, Fire Valve and the fixed setting fire-value and other figures.

PVB
Seasonal variation in the demand for PVB over the past years. Moving Average Method: o We find the weighted average of the sales for the given year, taking period of 4 quarters as one, o The trend line for the weighted average is found as y = 7910.5x + 39985. o The sales for the following two years is estimated using this trend o For forecasting more than 2 years will involve other economic factors, hence this method may not give correct forecast for long term. Year Weighted Average 2001 48534 2002 56018 2003 61376.5 2004 73116.25 2005 79537.5 2006 87448

Fire-Valve
The regression coefficient for the fire-valve is found with the trend of house unit, loan rate and unemployment.
REGRESSION COEFFICIENT FIRE VALVE Z2105 -0.388776 9.932177 31.87442 41.15456 0.193718 FIRE VALVE Z3000 -0.540757 -25.55419 -59.21286 855.1229 0.157792 FIRE VALVE Z3000IL 0.327947 0.006442 3.255899 -133.0472 0.183064 FIRE VALVE Z3004 -0.108875 -8.301378 -34.21728 320.4827 0.194669 FIRE VALVE Z3004IL -0.368907 -23.31781 -31.15431 525.5118 0.255781

Constant House Units Loan Rate Unemployment R-Square

The R-square value is very small, the economic factors cannot be used to forecast the demand for firevalve. The demand for the fire-valve does not exhibit seasonal variations and hence the moving average method will yield no result. The demand for the new fixed-setting fire valve can be forecasted using the similar product technique, using the historical demands of the fire-valve. However, the data for the initial demand of fire-valve is not given and hence we cannot find the S-curve of the fixed-setting fire-valve.