The Future Rert 2011
prepared by Global Futures and Foresight
Sponsored by
“
the future
”
OutsourcingGlobalisationMarkets and economiesBusiness modelsPeople and populationUrbanisationWorkGovernment and legislationEnvironmentTechnology
Global ForeignDirect Investment $1.6-$2 trillion in 2012.Between 2011-2020,France, Germany and theUK respective annual GDP increases of 1.7%, 1.8%and 1.7%.NewUKgovernmentruleswillreducethenumberofjobsopentonon-Europeanskilledmigrantsfrom500,000to 230,000–fewerthan1%oftheUKlabourforce.Germannational eGovernmentstrategytocommencein2015.NewenergystandardsrequireallnewbuildingsconstructedinEuropeafter2020tobenearly carbon-neutral.Wage drop raisesattractiveness of UK for outsourcing.Global Data Center Outsourcingmarket will reach $163 billion in 2014. As of 2009 therewere 250,000 jobs inGermany’s renewableenergy sector.Germany and Italy will experience drops of 8%and 5% whilst the UK will experience a 2% increase. 2.2 million individualswill migrate annually from developing todeveloped countries(from 2005 to 2050).India and China account for 62% of Asian urban population growth and 40% of global urban population growth from 2005 to 2025.The UK population is projected to grow by 1,100 people a day over the next decade (2010to 2020).
GlalFreinirectInvestment $1.6-$2trillinin2012
Global outsourcing toreach $1.3 trillion by 2020– Asia captures 80-95%.Social media trumpsemail as the primary means of communicationby 2014.
250
million
$
46
trillion
Global ‘Cleantech’ industries need $46 trillion investment.9% of UK employersare having troublefilling vacancies.
7
billion
Public debt is forecastto average 118% ofGDP among the world’sdeveloped economiesby 2014.The Smart City Marketto quadruple by 2020 tobecome a $2.1 trillionmarket.Various forms ofbiotechnology couldform a trillion dollarmarket by 2020.The global chemicalsmarket is set to reach a sizeof $5.3 trillion by 2020.As of 2010 London was theonly European city amongthe world’s largest 20metropolitan areas.“Europe is the onlycontinent with citiesgrowing at less than 1%annually”.It took nearly 40 years (from1971 to 2008) for India’surban population to rise bynearly 230 million; it willtake only half that time toadd the next 250 million.Urban households withtrue discretionary-spendingpower in India couldincrease sevenfold,to 89 million, by 2025.136 new cities to enterthe top 600, all fromthe developing worldoverwhelmingly,100 new cities, from China.By 2030, six out of 10people will live in cities.70% of global populationswill be urban by 2050.Global infrastructure needstotal more than $40 trillion.By 2020, 40% or more ofan organisation’s work willbe “non-routine,” up from25% in 2010The latest 3D printerslaunched in March 2011can print an object up to8 square meters in volume,the size of a small car.80-90% UK shoppers’decisions influenced online.Global smartphone marketis already larger than thePC market.Only 25% of businesseswill routinely use socialnetwork analysis toimprove performance andproductivity by 2015.By 2014, 1 in 4 mobilesglobally will be aSmartphone.Virtual meetings to reach$18.6 billion by 2015.By 2020, more than a thirdof all the information in theDigital Universe will eitherlive in or pass through thecloud and will be 44 timesas large as in 2009.By 2020, Internet users willreach 5 billion - equal to theentire world’s populationcirca 1987. 1.7 billion usersin 2010.Korean goal - “a robot inevery home by 2020”.By 2020 people willspend a large amountof time in virtual-realityworlds in which they willcompete, socialise, relax, beentertained and do business.Only 10 percent of globalwaste is recycled. Globalwaste production hasincreased 50 percentin 20 years.To stabilise the amountof carbon dioxide in theatmosphere will cost$542 billion per year,every year till 2030.Europe will need tospend 2.9 trillion Euros(25% annual GDP overthe 10 years to 2020 yearsto satisfy demand forlow-carbon technologies.Global energyconsumptionto rise by 49%between 2007and 2035.Fossil fuels account for50% of the increase in totalprimary energy demand,renewable energy will triplebetween 2008 and 2035.1.2 billion people will stillnot have electricity by 2030.Low levels of immigrationand ageing workforcein EU places knowledgemanagement front andcentral in the comingdecade and beyond.97% say that having theright talent is the mostcritical factor for theirbusiness growth.883% rise in UKemployment for otherbusiness services by 2017.50% growth inassignments by 2020.By 2020 5 billion globalmicropreneurs will beconnected.In France the cost of stressis between €2 to €3 billioneach year.By 2015, almost £10 billionof public money will bespent every year supportingthe retirement of millions ofpublic sector employees –up from £4 billion in 2010.Public debt by 2020 to hit131% in Italy, 124% in theUK, 114% in France and97% in Germany.
2010 2020 2030 and beyond
China and India will consume a third of global energy by 2035.One billion people could have been forced torelocate by 2050 due toclimate change.95% of global energy demand could be met by renewables by 2050. Artificial intelligencewill surpass humanintelligence after 2020. 20% of populationof EU cities are Muslim.
Creativity identified as themost important leadershipcompetency for thesuccessful enterprise of thefuture (IBM Survey).Financial outperformersare 57% more likely thanunderperformers to usecollaborative and socialnetworking tools.Networked organisationswill focus on theorchestration of tasksrather than the ‘ownership’of workers.Work swarmsproliferate by 2020.CSR and Green goesmainstream by 2020.Emerging markets topioneer new modelsand impact developedeconomies.Open innovation andcollaborative networksto prosper.
“the future” timeline
Nanotechnology, biotechnology and Smart City markets all worth at least $1 trillion by 2020.
9.3
billion
India is the only major economy whoseworkforce is not set toage significantly by 2030.
22
billion
By 2020 we expect tohave over 22 billiondevices communicatingover the internet.
$
40
trillion
70
%
50
%
131
%
India’s Engineering Research & Development providerscould capture a 40% share of global offshore revenues in11 key verticals by 2020.7 billion people livingon Earth for thefirst time in 2011.Communication viahologram mainstreamby 2040.By 2050 a device the sizeof a micro-SD card will have storage equivalent to three times the braincapacity of the entirehuman race.Natural resourceconsumption is expected to rise to 170% of theEarth’s bio-capacity by 2040.(In France) the greeningof the environment could create or keep upto 600,000 jobs by 2020.By 2050 the EU labour force would decline by around 68 million workers.
100 million people wouldbe needed to fill the gap(Population shortfall inthe EU).Dementia in Europeincreases from10 million todayto 14 million peoplein 2030.Britons over 85 toincrease from 1.3 millionin 2008 to 3.3 millionby 2033.Population to reach9.3 billion by 2050.Over 60’s double to21% of global populationby 2050.
$
24.6
trillion
The UK ranks 4th globallyin its ease of ‘doingbusiness,’ with Germany22nd, France 26th, andIndia at 134th.100 emerging economycompanies total$1.3 trillion in 2009. Couldmultiply six-fold by 2020.World economyto double by 2020.By 2020 total E7 GDPcould already be higherthan total G7 GDP.More than 20 of the world’stop 50 cities ranked by GDPwill be located in Asia bythe year 2025, up from 8in 2007.E7 GDP to be around 44%higher by 2030 than totalG7 GDP in PPP terms.World economic outputwill triple by 2050. China at$24.6 trillion and the US at$22.3 trillion dominate withIndia at $8.2 trillion.
By 2020 40% of theworld’s populationwill have achieved middle-class status.
Contents
The Future Rert 2011
prepared by Global Futures and Foresight
The Future Rert 2011
prepared by Global Futures and Foresight
Introduction 02Executive summary 03Globalisation 08Economies 12Populations 16Urbanisation 20Environment 24Business models 28Technology 34Work 44Outsourcing 48Regulation and legislation 52Government 56About the author 62Glossary of terms 63References 65
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