See Important Disclosures at the end of this report.August 2011
We noticed in the last part of August that there was an onslaught of critical pieces in highly regarded media outletsabout gold. Gimlet-eyed scrutiny is always helpful but we could not help noticing that almost without exceptionthe stories were embedded with curious logic that naturally led to illogical conclusions (most often something tothe effect that “you better be careful because gold looks like a bubble”). Irrefutable economic and financialidentities were ignored in favor of regurgitating sloppy, disproven metrics rationalizing the forty year-oldunreserved credit build-up. Sadly, even the requisite favorable arguments towards gold, no doubt inserted for journalistic balance, were way off-point.The media should not be blamed. Writers write, journalists journal and neither should be expected to know aboutmatters with which they have not personally studied deeply. A seasoned journalist covering the financial beatthinks in terms of finance, not in terms of commerce or business, and one covering economics only knows
It is understandable then that with gold setting new nominal highs the financial media tapped intotheir collective Rolodex to get expert analysis from
authorities on a matter that threatens finance andfrom political economists trained to seek economic fixes through already-failed monetary or fiscal policies:Journalist: “So tell me, Mr. Fox, should we be concerned these gold hens are out of their cages?”Highly regarded financial analyst or economist: “Off the record…yes, gold is being driven higher by a bunchof unsophisticated ideologues. On the record…(earnest face)…the gold price shows a fear of inflation, whichby the way, doesn’t show up in any data. Nevertheless that fear can’t be completely discounted untilleaders stop their bickering and work out a plan. Then it won’t be such a good idea to own gold.”Of course, the established stalwarts make no mention of what “the plan” is shaping up to be – devaluing ourbaseless global currencies against gold. Market strategists generally do not understand the forces behind valuingmoney nearly as well as the relationship connecting available systemic credit to nominal output growth andnominal financial asset valuations, and independent economists actually willing to connect all the dots aregenerally too “responsible” to speak of formal devaluation before all other policy options are exhausted.
is practiced in Washington and on Wall Street, and, ergo, the only brand of economics taught inschools looking to gain employment for their alumni. Political economists have been trained to see economicsthrough the prism of government. Liberal ones prefer a heavy dose of Keynesianism, and are quick to suggest fiscalpolicies to re-balance their sense of fairness, if not economic equilibria. Conservative economists prefer less fiscalintervention and are keener to reduce tax rates or manage money supply to maneuver economies. Both factions,however, seek annual nominal output growth at all costs, (even at the expense of negative real growth), andneither sees the aggregate economic incentives of commercial counterparties as the nexus of an economy’sdirection and sustainability. Neither self-proclaimed “conservatives” nor “liberals” accept the possibility thatconventional government intervention could ever be ineffective. Yet this is precisely the case today.Established political, financial and economic operators, and the media that covers them, are focused on theimpractical demands of the far left and far right and concerned with what might happen if such demands continueto polarize the public. What they are failing to grasp is that they are part of the circus too. Policy makers are boxedin a debt trap from which there is no conventional escape. Media elders are taking dictation from disprovenfinanciers and economists like cub reporters. (If they are “lucky enough” they gain access to money-grubbingpoliticians who don't know enough to realize (or care) that their benefactors will be powerless when the dollarfails!) The establishment is earnestly debating whether Nero should fiddle in c-major or in g.The reality of contemporary economies is that financialism has become unquestioned and fidelity has been de-commissioned. We believe strongly, and you should too, that the odds are heavily in favor that outcomesconsidered
today will occur tomorrow. The forty year-old dollar-based global monetary systemis functionally unsustainable, long-in-the-tooth, and now noticeably failing. Conventional policy or politickingcannot fix it. The
pendulum has already begun swinging back towards hard money (and scarceresources), and its velocity is accelerating.