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Michael Diekmann, Chief Executive Officer Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance Conference, London, October 2011
Agenda A B C D
Allianz at a glance Dj vu lessons from the crisis European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 2 Allianz SE 2011
Outlook
Allianz at a glance
Segments1,3
Operating profit in % EUR 106bn total revenues1 EUR 1,508bn total AuM2 EUR 8.2bn operating profit1 180% solvency ratio2 EUR 43bn S/H equity2
31% 47% 32% 28% 22% AM P/C
Regions1,3
Operating profit in %
Growth markets Specialty insurance 5% 12% 23%
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference Allianz SE 2011
Germany
Western Europe
Strong operating profit despite crisis, slightly below previous year due to high NatCat and negative F/X impact
Allianz SE 2011
H1
Agenda A B C D
Allianz at a glance Dj vu lessons from the crisis European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 6 Allianz SE 2011
Outlook
10 years of streamlining
India: Start of JV between Allianz and Bajaj Russia: Acquisition of first stake in ROSNO Acquisition of Dresdner Bank & DIT Merger of Euler & Hermes Formation of Allianz Global Risks Acquisition of Munich Re stake in Allianz Leben Launch of "3+One" Conversion into Allianz SE Minority buyout RAS ICBC: investment and cooperation agreement Foundation of AGCS Announcement of major restructuring in Germany TOM as part of 3+One Minority buyout AGF and AZ Leben Merger and re-branding Italy Allianz Investment Mgmt. (AIM) Turkey: Acquisition of stake in insurance JV Hartford investment Sale of Dresdner Bank (signing) Cominvest acquisition Rebranding AGF to Allianz France Delisting NYSE Initial CPIC investment Agreements with VW, Daimler & BMW 10th anniversary acquisition PIMCO & 20th anniversary East Germany Simplification of holding structures 1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference Allianz SE 2011 8 Repositioning AGI Merger of Russian OEs
i2s
Start of Sustainability Program and Customer Focus Initiative ADAM becomes Allianz Global Investors
2001
September 11
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Earthquake in China Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers
2009
2010
Earthquakes in Chile and Haiti Historically low interest rates
2011
Hurricane Katrina
EU initiates Solvency II process Hurricanes in the U.S. and Caribbean Tsunami in Southeast Asia European storm Kyrill U.S. subprime mortgage crisis
Floods in Australia Earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan Political unrest in North Africa European sovereign debt crisis
2004
6.3 971
1,681
2005
2006
9.0
Reinsurance governance
Mega Cat Super Cat Cat bonds, Swaps
2007
10.1
110% 37%
108
2008
7.5 2004
9
Retentions of operating entities (OEs)
H1 2011
2004
H1 2011
2009
7.2
4
8.2
2010
1.2
2011e
8.0 0.5
0.2
2004
1) Historical reported figures excluding Banking segment in EUR bn 2) Financial Conglomerates Directive 3) Share of Global Lines in operating profit
2010
H1 2011
H1 2011
9
4) Risk Weighted Assets 5) Net equity exposure after tax and policyholder participation as % of NAV
Allianz SE 2011
1
Strong capital
1H 2011
180%
Regulatory capital excluding unrealized gains on bonds, but including impairments on Greek sovereign debt Economic capital based on markedto-market sovereign bond portfolio
191%
184%
100% n.a.
All solvency ratios after 40% net income dividend accrual S&P and A.M. Best ratings affirmed in September 2011
10
Allianz SE 2011
S&P rating
AA negative
AA stable
AA stable
1
Strong capital
FCD solvency ratio 1H 2011 Equities -30% Int. rates -100bp Economic solvency ratio 1H 2011 Equities -30% Int. rates -100bp IFRS S/H equity (EUR bn) 1H 2011 Equities -30% Int. rates -100bp 42.6 39.4 46.3
11
Equity gearing significantly reduced Regulatory solvency ratio almost immune against interest rate and spread changes Pro-cyclical banking segment discontinued
1) Lower FCD capital driven by change in DAC write-off (shadow DAC) and negative impact from reserve discounting
Allianz SE 2011
1
Strong capital
Sound liquidity
Maturity structure
(EUR bn) 5.5
Senior bonds Subordinated bonds
Mid term financing completed1 - 2011 issuance covers maturities until 2015 - Attractive conditions and intelligent timing - Allianz CoCo structure offers additional protection
0.9
2011 2012
1.5
1.5
1.5
2.0 1.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2.5
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2041
Perpetual
Sensible maturity profile Useful diversification between instruments Over ~EUR 250bn group assets eligible as collateral with central banks2
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 12 Allianz SE 2011
Duration3 (years)
Assets
1H11 2010 1H11 2010 1H11 2010
Liabilities
4.7 5.5 6.6 6.7 5.7 6.1
Closely matched ALM structure Stable liabilities with long duration profile Limited interest rate sensitivity of operating earnings4 Stable surrender ratios in L/H
3.7 4.0
6.2 6.8
2) Amount may vary depending on prevailing regulatory conditions 4) ~ EUR -200mn impact of 100bps lower yield across all asset classes during first 12 months (excluding fair value changes)
2
Sustainable profitability
in tough environment
iBoxx EUR overall asset swap spread in bp
5.2
thanks to diversification
OP by business segment in %2
4.0 1.5 6.9 1.8 7.7 2.0 10.4 3.8 10.9 5.5 7.4 3.5 7.2 4.1 8.2 4.5
8.0 0.5
-8 9 11 12 7
60.3 49.0 79.2 115.0
60 58 54 54 55 73 49 47 45
23 21 21 22 26 15 34 31 31
16 12 14 12 12 12 17 22 24
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference Allianz SE 2011 13
0 0 0 0
1) 2)
Historical reported figures Based on historical reported figures excl. Corporate segment and Conso. 2011: H1
Bank P/C
L/H AM
2
Sustainable profitability
12 11 10 9
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference Allianz SE 2011 14
Investment grade
Weighted average yield on 10-year EMU gvt. bonds Yield on German 10-year government bonds
BBB rated
2
Sustainable profitability
Business in force
5.5%
0.2%1
270bp
4.9%
Germany Reinvestment yield of 1.5% sufficient to pay all guarantees Government bonds 10ys maturity, ~4.1% 80% A or better
0.2%
~4.2%
Covered bonds 9ys mat., ~4.4% 95% A or better
ITA 11% EM 10% FRA 6% Other 13%
4.5%
4.5%
200bp
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference Allianz SE 2011 15
2.8% ~30%
~2.2%
~40%
2012e ~2.0%
~30%
Corporate bonds 6ys mat., ~4.1% 92% BBB or better Total2 return 2010 Current3 yield 2010 min. guarantee4 2010 Reinvestment guarantee yield F/I of new 01-06/2011 business4
Based on aggregate policy reserves Based on book value of assets Based on aggregate policy reserves
1) 2) 3) 4)
Net of php; in stress scenario higher shareholder share possible Based on IFRS investment + underwriting result Based on IFRS current interest and similar income Weighted by aggregate policy reserves
2
Sustainable profitability
1) H1 2011, based on consolidated insurance portfolios (P/C, L/H), Corporate and other 2) Excluding self-originated German private retail mortgage loans 3) Mostly policyholder loans and registered debentures, all of investment grade quality
16
Allianz SE 2011
7%
2
Sustainable profitability
Absolute exposure
1) Light grey ratios refer to total exposure (peripherals plus Italy) 2) Ratios slightly overstated, because net unrealized losses are already deducted from S/H equity
2
Sustainable profitability
100.0% 97.5% 95.0% 92.5% 90.0% 87.5% 85.0% 2005
Crisis deserves attention, but dont overlook the positive operative trend
500 400 300 200 100 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 2011
Property/Casualty
Strong accident year profitability Higher retention of profitable business Sound pricing momentum Disciplined cycle management
AY CR ex NatCat Net retention
Life /Health
Consistent reserve growth Solid margins1 Attractively diversified business mix
Technical reserves (EUR bn) - Ihs
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 18 Allianz SE 2011
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 2011
70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52
Products
Market Management
Distribution
Operations
Asset Management
Corporate
Target Operating Model implemented Improving operational leverage Progressive globalization of scalable businesses
3
Manageable complexity
Agenda A B C D
Allianz at a glance Dj vu lessons from the crisis European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 20 Allianz SE 2011
Outlook
European sovereign debt crisis: high uncertainty and growing downside risks
Government bond spreads over 10yr
(German government bonds, % points)
22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 May May May
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 21 Allianz SE 2011
Risk premiums reach record highs Rising tension in the interbank market Stock market crash Pace of economic growth in the Euro area expected to decelerate
Source: EcoWin
100
95
90
110
105
100
Ireland
Spain
Greece
Portugal
22
Allianz SE 2011
Spain
-30
Dissolution of EURO
23
Allianz SE 2011
New measures (ECB interventions, EFSF, ESM tools) prevent strong contagion
Greek default and/or serious contagion of bigger EMU countries (Spain, Italy)
Economic view
Likely impact on peripheral country leaving the EU Extreme pressure on banking system
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference
Positive
Negative
Secession
Discontinuation of EU transfers
Devaluation of currency
export
import
24
1) Unanimous consent of all 27 member states required, including the leaving country itself
Allianz SE 2011
Advantages
Committed funds leveraged up to 3.7 times1 Total coverage up to EUR 2.9tn2 Extension of program does not reduce available funds Terms tailored to specific debtor situations Selected allocation of funds (contrarian to Eurobonds) (Re)enforcement of restructuring targets via pricing and allocation Pricing determined by ESIM (not CDS) Necessary support of banks still possible Feasible within existing legal framework: quick implementation possible Solution of Greeks solvency problem via voluntary exchange of existing bonds into insured bonds above current market values but significantly below par
25
x 2.5
Leverage1
Investor 50%
Investor 50%
100%
Example 1 Example 2
Investors exposure
Insured by ESIM
EFSF (and subsequently ESM) acts as sovereign bond insurer for new funding and exchange offers
1) Lower coverage for selected countries increases leverage, e.g. to 3.7 with 40% coverage for Greece, Portugal and Ireland and 25% for Italy and Spain 2) Current guarantees given to EFSF leveraged via ESIM = EUR 780bn x 3.7 = EUR 2.9tn
Allianz SE 2011
Agenda A B C D
Allianz at a glance Dj vu lessons from the crisis European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 26 Allianz SE 2011
Outlook
Diversification
Growth
Cyclemanagement
Pension opportunity
Multi-channel distribution
Financial strength
Competence
Integrity
27
Allianz SE 2011
Operating profitability
Efficiency improvement
Risk management
Investment strategy
Capital management
Capitalization
Capital allocation
Cash generation
Rating
L/H
1.4
2.2 2.8
AM
1.1
1.8 2.2
CIR 59.0%
Co
-0.4
-0.9 -1.1
As expected
Total
4.0
7.5
8.0 8.5
1) Disclaimer: Impact from NatCat, financial markets and global economic development not predictable!
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
29
Strong market positions and brands Resilient and well diversified business model High-quality investment portfolio Strong capital base
Appendix
Reinhard Lahusen
Christian Lamprecht
Financial calendar
November 11, 2011 February 23, 2012 February 24, 2012 March 23, 2012 May 9, 2012 May 15, 2012 August 3, 2012 November 9, 2012 3rd quarter results 2011 Financial press conference for the 2011 fiscal year Analysts conference for the 2011 fiscal year Annual Report 2011 Annual General Meeting Interim Report 1st quarter 2012 Interim Report 2nd quarter 2012 Interim Report 3rd quarter 2012
1109_OS_MD Merrill Lynch Conference 33 Allianz SE 2011
The German Securities Trading Act ("Wertpapierhandelsgesetz") obliges issuers to announce immediately any information which may have a substantial price impact, irrespective of the communicated schedules. Therefore we cannot exclude that we have to announce key figures of quarterly and fiscal year results ahead of the dates mentioned above. As we can never rule out changes of dates, we recommend checking them on the Internet at www.allianz.com/financialcalendar.
Disclaimer
These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
No duty to update
The company assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein.