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WRITENET
independent analysis
 
writenet is a network of researchers and writers on humanrights, forced migration, ethnic and political conflictwritenet is the resource base of practical management (uk)e-mail: writenet@gn.apc.org
ETHIOPIA:A SITUATION ANALYSIS AND TREND ASSESSMENT
A Writenet Report by Sarah Vaughancommissioned by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees,Protection Information Section (DIP)January 2004
Caveat:
Writenet papers are prepared mainly on the basis of publicly available information, analysis and comment.The papers are not, and do not purport to be, either exhaustive with regard to conditions in the country surveyed, or conclusive as to the merits of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. The views expressed in the paper arethose of the author and are not necessarily those of 
UNHCR,
Writenet or Practical Management.
 
ETHIOPIA: A SITUATION ANALYSIS AND TREND ASSESSMENT
TABLE OF CONTENTSList of Acronyms.....................................................................................iii
 
Executive Summary..................................................................................v
 
1
 
Introduction........................................................................................1
 
2
 
Review of the Contemporary Situation...........................................4
 
2.1
 
State/Government........................................................................................4
 
2.1.1
 
 Ethnic Federalism: Constitutional Framework and Issues................4 
 
2.1.2
 
Organization of the Executive..............................................................5
 
2.1.3
 
 Political Representation: Parliamentary Bodies..................................7 
 
2.1.4 
 
 Recourse to Justice: the Judiciary and Police.....................................8
 
2.1.5
 
 Recourse to Force: the Military and Security Apparatus..................12
 
2.1.6 
 
Conclusions and Implications............................................................14 
 
2.2
 
The Political Party System........................................................................15
 
2.2.1
 
The Ruling Party, EPRDF..................................................................15
 
2.2.2
 
 EPRDF-affiliated Organizations in So-called Emergent States.......16 
 
2.2.3
 
Opposition Parties...............................................................................17 
 
2.2.4 
 
 Multi-partyism and the Electoral Landscape.....................................18
 
2.2.5
 
Conclusions and Implications............................................................20
 
2.3
 
Civil Society / Associational Life..............................................................20
 
2.3.1
 
 Religious Activity.................................................................................20
 
2.3.2
 
 Developmental Activity: NGOs and Civic Bodies..............................21
 
2.3.3
 
The Private Media...............................................................................23
 
2.3.4 
 
Commercial Activity: the Private Sector............................................23
 
2.3.5
 
Conclusions and Implications............................................................24 
 
2.4
 
Popular Experiences..................................................................................24
 
2.4.1
 
 Relevant Trends in Socio-political Culture........................................24 
 
2.4.2
 
 Local Experiences of State Authority Structures...............................26 
 
3
 
Contemporary Threats to Sociopolitical and Human Rights......27
 
3.1
 
Conflict and Insecurity..............................................................................27
 
3.1.1
 
 So-called Ethnic Conflict....................................................................28
 
3.1.2
 
 So-called Pastoralist Conflict.............................................................28
 
3.1.3
 
Conflict for Control of the State.........................................................29
 
3.1.4 
 
The Aftermath of the Ethio-Eritrean War, 1998-2000......................30
 
3.2
 
Economic Threats: Food Insecurity, Poverty, Unemployment.............31
 
3.2.1
 
 Major Strands of Economic Policy....................................................31
 
3.2.2
 
 Issues of Concern in Economic Development...................................32
 
3.3
 
The State and Political Rights...................................................................34
 
3.3.1
 
The Impact of Ethnic Federalism......................................................34 
 
3.3.2
 
The Treatment of Political Activists and Critics................................36 
 
3.4
 
Social Sanctioning of Human Rights Violations.....................................37
 
3.4.1
 
Women’s Rights and Gendered Discrimination................................37 
 
3.4.2
 
Taboos and Occupational Minorities.................................................38
 
3.4.3
 
Treatment of the Landless, Destitute and Displaced.........................38
 
3.4.4 
 
 Homosexuality.....................................................................................39
 
 
 
3.5
 
Factors Influencing Trends and Outlook................................................39
 
3.5.1
 
The State and Political Rights............................................................39
 
3.5.2
 
Conflict................................................................................................40
 
3.5.3
 
 Socio-economic Threats......................................................................40
 
4
 
Refugee and IDP Movements and Status......................................41
 
4.1
 
The Current Situation...............................................................................41
 
4.1.1
 
 Somali Refugees..................................................................................41
 
4.1.2
 
 Sudanese Refugees..............................................................................42
 
4.1.3
 
 Kenyan and Djiboutian Refugees.......................................................44 
 
4.1.4 
 
 IDPs/refugees from Eritrean Border Areas.......................................44 
 
4.1.5
 
Other IDPs...........................................................................................45
 
4.1.6 
 
 Ethiopian Refugees.............................................................................45
 
4.2
 
Factors Influencing Trends and Outlook................................................46
 
4.2.1
 
The Domestic Context.........................................................................46 
 
4.2.2
 
(In)stability in Neighbouring Countries............................................47 
 
4.2.3
 
 Relations and Conflict with Neighbouring Countries.......................48
 
5
 
Conclusions: Trends and Policy Implications...............................49
 
5.1
 
The Current Situation, and Prospects.....................................................49
 
5.2
 
Policy Implications.....................................................................................51
 
6
 
Bibliography.....................................................................................54
 
ii
 
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