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Russia and the Koreas: Past Policies and Future Possibilities by Richard Weitz

Russia and the Koreas: Past Policies and Future Possibilities by Richard Weitz

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Dr. Richard Weitz,Hudson Institute, examines Russia's variety of goals with respect to the Koreas on his paper, "Russia and the Koreas: Past Policies and Future Possibilities".
Dr. Richard Weitz,Hudson Institute, examines Russia's variety of goals with respect to the Koreas on his paper, "Russia and the Koreas: Past Policies and Future Possibilities".

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Published by: Korea Economic Institute (KEI) on Oct 19, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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^ryyed dl` pfb Ha~bdy= Zdyp Zaceieby dl` Grpr~b Zayyenecepeby
nu ^eifd~` _bep} 
Obao~dzfu dcalb arc` oewb ^ryyed d z~akelblp ~acb elpfb Ha~bdl zblelyrcd, Pfb ^ryyedl Gb`b~dpeal ir~~blpcuyfd~by d ~biblpcu `bkd~idpb` 4?+hecakbpb~ iakkal na~+`b~ dcalo pfb Prkbl ^ewb~ epf pfb @bkai~dpei Zbazcb―y^bzrncei ag Ha~bd &@Z^H%,
4
Pfb z~avekepu ey yrg 
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rblib `bwbcazkblpy, El d``epeal#pfb feypa~eby ag pfb ^ryyedl dl` Ha~bdl ldpealy fdwb el+pb~pelb` ga~ iblpr~eby, Pfb Yawebp Rleal i~bdpb` La~pfHa~bd dl` ekzd~pb` pfb lb ypdpb epf epy fa~~e
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i ~boeal, Dkalo apfb~ nblb
py# pfb ~byrcpelo iak+kb~iedc yr~ob arc` fbcz elpbo~dpb ^ryyed gr~pfb~ elpa pfb z~ayzb~ary Bdyp Dyedl ~boeal dl` z~akapb pfb bialakei~biawb~u ag pfb ^ryyedl Gd~ Bdyp# feif cdoy nbfel`bypb~l ^ryyed bialakeidccu dl` ey nbiakelo d ybir~epucednecepu aelo pa pfb `bkao~dzfei iaccdzyb ag pfb bpflei^ryyedl zazrcdpeal el pfb ^ryyed+Ifeld na~`b~ ~boealy,El pfb d~bd ag ybir~epu# ^ryyedl zaceiukdhb~y d~b bdob~ pa la~kdce}b pfb ybir~epu yeprdpeal al pfb Ha~bdl zblel+yrcd el a~`b~ pa ~bdce}b pfbe~ bialakei dknepealy pfb~b,Yzbie
i ^ryyedl oadcy elicr`b bl`elo pfb @Z^H lricbd~ bdzaly dl` keyyecb z~ao~dky# dwb~pelo pfb dn~rzp iac+cdzyb ag pfb @Z^H ~boekb a~ d lricbd~ a~ ndcceypei keyyecb z~acegb~dpeal dwb el Bdyp Dyed# dl` hbbzelo Kayia dkdma~ ~boealdc ybir~epu dipa~, Iakkal ^ryyedl pdipeiya~ z~bibzpy pa zr~yrb yrif bl`y elicr`b el`rielo La~pfHa~bd pa bl` epy `ey~rzpewb lricbd~ dl` keyyecb z~ao~dky wac+rlpd~ecu pf~arof bialakei dyyeypdlib dl` ybir~epu dyyr~dliby#kdelpdelelo d z~akelblp ~acb ga~ ^ryyedl `ezcakdiu pf~arof maelp `bicd~dpealy dl` apfb~ kbdly# z~akapelo `edcaorb ~dpfb~ pfdl zrleyfkblp dl` hbbzelo dlu lbb`b` ydlipealy cekepb`# dl`bliar~doelo dcc zd~peby pa d`fb~b pa pfbe~ iakkepkblpy,
Feypa~u
Pfb Yawebp Rleal i~bdpb` pfb @Z^H nu bypdnceyfelo d ybzd+~dpb iakkrleyp ypdpb# cb` nu Hek Ec+yrlo# el pfb la~pfb~l fdcg ag pfb Ha~bdl zblelyrcd fbl Yawebp ga~iby aiirzeb` pfb ~b+oeal gaccaelo Mdzdl―y yr~~bl`b~ el pfb yrkkb~ ag 4502,
>
Gac+caelo pfb bl` ag _a~c` _d~ EE# pfb Yawebp Rleal z~awe`b` epylb dccu epf bialakei dl` kecepd~u dyyeypdlib,
9
@r~elo pfb452:’29 Ha~bdl _d~# pfb RYY^ dl` pfb Zbazcb―y ^bzrncei ag Ifeld &Z^I%# pfbl e`bacaoeidc dcceby# maelpcu ndihb` pfb @Z^H ~boekb epf d~kdkblpy# kecepd~u d`weyb~y# dl`# el pfb idyb ag Ifeld# frl`~b`y ag pfarydl`y ag d~kb` –wacrlpbb~y,‛ Rlpec pfbYawebp Rleal―y `bkeyb el 4554# ypdpb+pa+ypdpb ~bcdpealy nbpbblpfb RYY^ dl` pfb @Z^H b~b yrzzcbkblpb` nu peby nbpbblpfbe~ ~rcelo iakkrleyp zd~peby, Dgpb~ pfb Yela+Yawebp dccedlibiaccdzyb` el pfb cdpb 452:y# Kayia dl` Nbemelo iakzbpb` ga~ el
rblib el Zualoudlo, Lalbpfbcbyy# napf oawb~lkblpy b~bg~ryp~dpb` epf pfb rlz~b`eipdncb dl` ~b
bvewbcu vblazfanei La~pf Ha~bdl cbd`b~yfez# feif ialpelrdccu kd`b ga~beol dl``akbypei zaceiu `bieyealy epfarp ybir~elo Kayia―y a~ Nbe+ melo―y dzz~awdc, Ep dy lap rlryrdc ga~ pfb @Z^H pa pdhb yeo+le
idlp ga~beol zaceiu dipealy‐yrif dy ialg~alpelo pfb Rlepb`Ypdpby a~ pfb ^AH‐epfarp ialyrcpelo a~ bwbl lapeguelo Ya+webp cbd`b~y, Pfb @Z^H fd` epy al ialib~ly dnarp pfb RYY^#byzbiedccu Yawebp bgga~py pa z~akapb z~a+Kayia gdipealy elZualoudlo dl` d zb~ibewb` eccelolbyy pa ydi~e
ib Ha~bdlelpb~bypy fbl pfbu idkb elpa ial
eip epf apfb~ Yawebp z~e+a~epeby,
0
Pfb @Z^H ndcdlib` ~bcdpealy epf epy pa o~bdp+zab~  zdp~aly# ~bibewelo de` g~ak napf epfarp iakkeppelo pa bepfb~,
@~, _bep}―y zdzb~ ey pfb pfe~pu+
~yp el HBE―y Did`bkei Zdzb~ Yb~eby, Dy zd~p ag pfey z~ao~dk# HBE iakkeyyealy dl` `eyp~enrpby4: zdzb~y zb~ ubd~ al a~eoeldc yrnmbipy ag ir~~blp elpb~byp pa awb~ >#::: Ha~bd dpifb~y# oawb~lkblp ag
iedcy# pfelh pdlh bv+zb~py# dl` yifacd~y d~arl` pfb Rlepb` Ypdpby dl` pfb a~c`, D zrncei `eyiryyeal dp HBE epf pfb drpfa~ oblb~dccu gaccay elialmrlipeal epf `eyp~enrpeal, Dp pfb bl` ag pfb ubd~ pfbyb zdzb~y d~b iakzceb` dl` zrnceyfb` el
Al Ha~bd 
, Wacrkb 9 ag
Al Ha~bd 
ecc nb zrnceyfb` d~arl` bl`+Gbn~rd~u >:4:, Ga~ ka~b elga~kdpeal# zcbdyb weyep ,hbed,a~o!zdzb~Qyb~eby,zfz,
Gbn~rd~u >:4: • Wacrkb 2 • Lrknb~ >
 
 ’ > ’ 
Pa`du# Zualoudlo ypecc z~bgb~y pa `bdc epf ^ryyed dl`apfb~ iarlp~eby necdpb~dccu ~dpfb~ pfdl iaccbipewbcu,@r~elo kayp ag pfb 455:y# pfb lb ^ryyedl Gb`b~dpealrl`b~ Z~bye`blp Na~ey Ubcpyel yfrllb` pfb @Z^H fecb zr~yrelo nbppb~ peby epf pfb ^AH, Pfb ~ba~eblpdpeal di+prdccu nbodl `r~elo pfb cdyp gb kalpfy ag pfb YawebpRleal, El Ybzpbknb~ 455:# pfb Yawebp ga~beol keleypb~#B`rd~` Yfbwd~`ld`}b# yfaihb` fey faypy el Zualoudlofbl# `r~elo d weyep pa pfb @Z^H# fb dllarlib` pfdp pfbYawebp Rleal arc` bypdnceyf `ezcakdpei ~bcdpealy epfpfb ^AH dl` `bkdl` pfdp pfb @Z^H zdu kd~hbp z~eibyga~ Yawebp oaa`y ryelo fd~` ir~~bliu,
2
Pfb @Z^H iarc`lap dgga~` pfb lb z~eiby# dl` pfb ~byrcpelo yryzblyeal ag Yawebp aec `bcewb~eby el
eipb` d n~rpdc nca al pfb La~pfHa~bdl bialaku# feif rlpec pfbl fd` a~eblpb` dnarpfdcg ag epy p~d`b epf pfb Yawebp Rleal# ~bibewelo cd~obtrdlpepeby ag zbp~acbrk dl` apfb~ ~d kdpb~edcy dp yrnye+`e}b` z~eiby,
7
G~ak 455> pa 455?# necdpb~dc ^ryyed+@Z^H p~d`b pr~lawb~ yf~dlh beofpgac`,
?
^ryyed ibdyb` z~awe`+elo bialakei de`# yrnye`e}b` d~ky ydcby# a~ apfb~ yzb+iedc nblb
py pa pfb @Z^H# feif iarc` la calob~ dzzbdcpa Kd~veyp+Cbleleyp e`bacaoeidc yace`d~epu fbl ^ryyedlcbd`b~y# bvicr`elo d gb d`ke~elo fd~`+celb iakkrleypy# z~agbyyb` pa d`fb~b pa `bkai~dpei a~# eli~bdyelocu# z~do+kdpei ldpealdceyp z~eliezcby,^ryyed+^AH peby `e` ekz~awb `r~elo pfb 455:y, El 455:#Z~bye`blp ^af Pdb+aa ~bd~`b` pfb Yawebp oawb~lkblpepf d $4,2 necceal cadl ga~ ~biaole}elo pfb ^AH8 pfeygaccab` g~ak fey zaceiu ag La~`zacepeh# feif yarofppa la~kdce}b ^AH ~bcdpealy epf pfb @Z^H―y hbu dc+ceby# pfb RYY^ dl` pfb Z^I# el a~`b~ pa odel cbwb~dobawb~ Zualoudlo,
6
^af pfbl faypb` Z~bye`blp KehfdecOa~ndifbw al pfb Yarpf Ha~bdl ~bya~p eycdl` ag Mbmr elDz~ec 4554, Ubcpyel weyepb` Ybarc pfb gaccaelo ubd~# dl`Z~bye`blp Hek Uarlo+ydk# ^af―y yriibyya~# p~dwbcb` paKayia el 4550,
5
Pfb cbd`b~y ag ^ryyed dl` Yarpf Ha+~bd fdwb kbp ka~b pfdl >: pekby‐al pfb ye`bcelby ag krcpeldpealdc odpfb~eloy dy bcc dy necdpb~dc yrkkepy elbdif apfb~―y iarlp~eby‐yelib pfb pa iarlp~eby bypdn+ceyfb` `ezcakdpei ~bcdpealy el 455:,
4:
Nrp# `r~elo pfb
~yp`bid`b ag pfbe~ lb ~bcdpealyfez# Kayia―y cekepb` cb+wb~dob el Zualoudlo dl` bdh ldpealdc bialaku bwbl+prdccu cekepb` Yarpf Ha~bdl elpb~byp el `bbzblelo pebyepf ^ryyed,Cdihelo icayb peby epf bepfb~ Ha~bdl ypdpb# ^ryyed―yypdpry ~bod~`elo pfb zblelyrcd―y ybir~epu dggde~y `bpb~ea+~dpb` `r~elo pfb 455:y pa pfdp ag dl elpb~bypb` anyb~wb~,
44
 Kayia zcdub` alcu d ykdcc ~acb `r~elo pfb
~yp Ha~bdllricbd~ i~eyey el 4559’50, @byzepb epy zealbb~elo elwacwb+kblp el La~pf Ha~bd―y lricbd~ blb~ou z~ao~dk# ^ryyed`e` lap mael pfb lb Ha~bdl Zblelyrcd Blb~ou @bwbcaz+kblp A~odle}dpeal &HB@A% ialya~perk# d krcpeldpealdcd~~dlobkblp bypdnceyfb` pa ialyp~rip pa ceofp+dpb~ ~b+dipa~y dy zd~p ag pfb 4550 Do~bb` G~dkba~h bl`elo pfbi~eyey, ^ryyed dcya ypaa` dye`b `r~elo pfb gar~+zd~pu pdchydkalo Ifeld# pfb Rlepb` Ypdpby# dl` pfb pa Ha~bdy pfdp nbodl el Ybzpbknb~ 455?, Kayia `bicelb` pa ~blb pfb4574 Yawebp+@Z^H G~ebl`yfez dl` Krprdc DyyeypdlibP~bdpu# feif fd` d kecepd~u elpb~wblpeal icdryb# fbl epbvze~b` el Ybzpbknb~ 4557,Ubcpyel―y yriibyya~# Wcd`eke~ Zrpel# yarofp pa ~bbypdnceyf^ryyed―y el
rblib el Bdyp Dyed# elicr`elo el La~pf Ha+~bd# dy zd~p ag fey n~ad`b~ dknepeal pa ~bbypdnceyf ^ryyeddy d o~bdp zab~, _fb~bdy Ubcpyel―y oawb~lkblp yfrllb`Zualoudlo el d oblb~dccu rlyriibyygrc bgga~p pa iar~pYbarc# pfb Zrpel d`keleyp~dpeal zr~yrb` ndcdlib` ~bcd+pealy epf napf Ha~bdl ypdpby,
4>
El Gbn~rd~u >:::# ^ry+yed dl` pfb @Z^H yeolb` d lb P~bdpu al G~ebl`yfez#Oaa`+Lbeofna~cu ^bcdpealy dl` Iaazb~dpeal, Pfdp Mrcu#Zrpel nbidkb pfb
~yp ^ryyedl &a~ Yawebp% cbd`b~ pa weyepZualoudlo# fb~b fb yeolb` d lb ^ryyed+@Z^H iaaz+b~dpeal p~bdpu pfdp z~awe`by ga~ ialyrcpdpealy el pfb idybag krprdc pf~bdpy, _fbl Hek Malo+ec z~azayb` el Dz~ec>::> fac`elo d pf~bb+du yrkkep epf ^ryyed dl` YarpfHa~bd el Yenb~ed# pfb obypr~b yroobypb` pfdp Zrpel―y ~dz+ z~aifbkblp bgga~py epf Zualoudlo fd` kd`b yeole
idlpfbd`du,
49
^ryyed fdy dcya `bbzblb` iakkb~iedc ~bcdpealy epf pfb^AH# zd~pedccu iakzblydpelo ga~ epy ialyp~delb` bialak+ei peby epf Ifeld dl` Mdzdl, Dp pfbe~ Ybzpbknb~ >::6yrkkep el Kayia# ^ryyedl Z~bye`blp @kep~u Kb`wb`bwdl` ^AH Z~bye`blp Cbb Kurlo+ndh do~bb` pa rzo~d`bpfbe~ necdpb~dc peby pa pfdp ag d –yp~dpboei iaazb~dpewb zd~p+lb~yfez,‛ Dcpfarof ^ryyed―y bialakei ~acb al pfb Ha~b+dl zblelyrcd cdoy nbfel` pfdp ag kdlu apfb~ iarlp~eby# epyypdpry dy d grcc zd~plb~ el elpb~ldpealdc bgga~py pa ~byacwbpfb @Z^H lricbd~ i~eyey blyr~by pfdp Kayia blmauyialye`b~dncb el
rblib al Ha~bdl ybir~epu eyyrby,
Ir~~blp Ybir~epu Eyyrby
Yev+Zd~pu Pdchy
^ryyed fdy nbbl d zd~peiezdlp# dcalo epf La~pf Ha~bd#Yarpf Ha~bd# Ifeld# Mdzdl# dl` pfb Rlepb` Ypdpby# el pfbyev+zd~pu pdchy pfdp# yelib >::9# fdwb nbbl ybbhelo pa yb+ir~b dl bl` pa pfb @Z^H―y lricbd~ bdzaly z~ao~dk el~bpr~l ga~ wd~eary bialakei# `ezcakdpei# dl` apfb~ elibl+pewby, Pfb gar~ elpb~iallbipb` anmbipewby ag pfb pdchy d~bbcekeldpelo lricbd~ bdzaly g~ak pfb Ha~bdl zblelyrcd#la~kdce}elo ~bcdpealy nbpbbl pfb @Z^H dl` dcc pfbapfb~ zd~peby# ybir~elo pfb bialakei `bwbcazkblp dl`~boealdc elpbo~dpeal ag La~pf Ha~bd# dl` difebwelo dl
 
 ’ 9 ’ 
bl`r~elo zbdib al pfb Ha~bdl zblelyrcd dl` pfb n~ad`b~ Bdyp Dyedl ~boeal,
40
Pfb pdchy fdwb nbbl ifd~dipb~e}b` nu pfb ac` Cbleleyp ycaodl# –Alb ypbz ga~d~`# pa ypbzy ndih#‛ bvibzp ep ybbky pfdp lelb ypbzy ndih aiir~ ga~ bw+b~u pbl ypbzy ga~d~`# epf pfb dchb~ g~btrblpcu dzzbd~+elo ~bd`u pa `~az `bd` bl ~arpb, Pfb zd~peby b~b dncb paybir~b d `blricbd~e}dpeal do~bbkblp dp pfb bl` ag pfb
gpf~arl` ag pfb pdchy# feif bl`b` al 49 Gbn~rd~u >::?,
42
Rl`b~ epy pb~ky# La~pf Ha~bd zcb`ob` pa yfrp `al dl`bwblprdccu `eykdlpcb epy Ualonual lricbd~ iakzcbv el~bpr~l ga~ gaa`# bialakei de`# dl` pfb z~ayzbip ag la~+kdce}elo ~bcdpealy epf pfb
wb apfb~ iarlp~eby, @byzepbyakb z~ao~byy el >::? dl` bd~cu >::6# z~ao~byy ypdccb`g~ak ke`+>::6 pa ke`+>::5 ga~ ~bdyaly pfdp dzzbd~ ~bcdp+b` pa pfb zacepeidc yriibyyeal p~dlyepeal el La~pf Ha~bd,Dp z~byblp# pfb @Z^H ~boekb ey nd~odelelo fd~` ga~ ial+yblpelo pa ~bpr~l pa pfb yev+zd~pu pdchy, @Z^H ~bz~byblpd+pewby fdwb ial`epealb` ~bmaelelo pfb pdchy al difebwelogr~pfb~ z~ao~byy el Zualoudlo―y necdpb~dc `edcaorb epf_dyfelopal, ^ryyedl ag 
iedcy# pfarof bciakelo ne+cdpb~dc `eyiryyealy nbpbbl La~pf Ha~bdl dl` R,Y, ag+
iedcy# fdwb `byi~enb` pfbk dy fbczelo ~byrkb pfb pdchy~dpfb~ pfdl ~bzcdielo pfbk# d `bwbcazkblp pfdp arc`bdhbl ^ryyedl el
rblib el pfb lboapedpealy,
47
Pfbufdwb dcya yrzza~pb` ialpelrelo bveypelo elpb~ldpealdcydlipealy dodelyp pfb @Z^H zbl`elo epy iakzcedlibepf wd~eary RL Ybir~epu Iarliec &RLYI% ~byacrpealykdl`dpelo epy ibyydpeal ag yblyepewb lricbd~ dipewepebydl` cdrlifby ag ndcceypei keyyecby,
4?
Pfb @Z^H fdy peib nbga~b &>::0’:2 dl` >::2’:7% nauiappb` pfb pdchy ga~ dubd~ rlpec pfb apfb~ zd~peby# byzbiedccu Nbemelo dl` _dyf+elopal# kd`b yrg 
ieblp ialibyyealy pa blpeib Zualoudlopa ~bmael pfbk, _fdpbwb~ pfb iaypy pfey pekb ga~ `~delo La~pf Ha~bd ndih# pfb z~eib ga~ ybir~elo pfb bcekeldpealag pfb @Z^H―y d~ybldc# eg pfey ~bkdely zayyencb# ey cehbcupa nb bwbl feofb~,
Ndcceypei Keyyecb Z~ancbky
Pfb @Z^H―y ndcceypei keyyecb z~ao~dk# a~eoeldccu ndyb`al Yawebp+b~d bdzaly pbiflacaou# fdy z~byblpb` dlapfb~ kdma~ ybir~epu z~ancbk ga~ ^ryyed dl` apfb~ iarlp~eby, La~pf Ha~bd―y ekz~awelo dnecepu pa pd~obp ka~b keyyecby dpka~b iarlp~eby# dy bcc dy epy ybbkelo eccelolbyy pa ybcckeyyecby dl` keyyecb+~bcdpb` pbiflacaoeby pa dlu ga~beol nrub~# fdy dcd~kb` krif ag pfb elpb~ldpealdc iakkrlepu#byzbiedccu epy lbeofna~y, Pfb ndcceypei keyyecb eyyrb dy+yrkb` ~blbb` ekza~pdlib el napf >::7 dl` >::5# fblZualoudlo―y `bieyeal pa ~byrkb pbypelo epy calo+~dlob ndcceypei keyyecby cb` pfb RLYI pa ekzayb ydlipealy al La~pf Ha~bd, El pr~l# pfb @Z^H ~byzal`b` al bdif ai+idyeal epf doo~byyewb ~fbpa~ei dl` pfb pbypelo ag d lr+icbd~ bdzal, Dcpfarof La~pf Ha~bd fdy ~bibewb` krifi~epeieyk ga~ epy ifd~dipb~e}elo d pfelcu `eyoreyb` ndcceypeikeyyecb z~ao~dk dy d yzdib bvzca~dpeal z~ao~dk# YarpfHa~bd fdy nbbl `bwbcazelo epy al ~aihbp idzdnecepu epfialye`b~dncb ^ryyedl dyyeypdlib, Ga~ napf Ha~bdy# pfbe~ yzdib z~ao~dky d~b `bbzcu peb` rz epf elp~dzblelyrcd~ ~ewdc~u dl` ocandc z~bypeob,
46
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