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To:InterestedPartiesFrom:DemocraticGovernorsAssociationRe:Governor'sRaceinMontanaDate:October20,2011
ProjectNewWest,aleadingpollingandresearchfirmonWesternissues,releasedMontanapollingdataduringitsWesternSummitinLasVegas.Settingthesceneforthe2012elections,GovernorBrianSchweitzercontinuestobeoneofthemostpopularGovernorsinthecountryandhasthehighestapprovalratingamongMontanastatewideelectedofficials.GovernorSchweitzerhasa56%favorablerating.InadditiontotheGovernor'shighapprovalratings,theStateofMontanacontinuestobuckthenationaltrend.Montanaisoneofonlyafewstatestohaveabudgetsurplus.Forthepast6yearsMontanahashadthelargestsurplusesinthehistoryofthestateincluding$340millioncashinthebankattheendofthepastfiscalyear.UndertheSchweitzerAdministrationmoretaxeshavebeencutformoreMontanansthananytimeinhistoryandeducationhasbeenfundedathistoriclevelsallwhilerunningthehighestendingfundbalancesinstatehistory.ArecentsurveybytheManhattanInstituteshowthat55%ofMontanansbelievetheeconomyintheirstateisontherighttrackwhileabout26%ofpeoplebelievethesameintheotherstatessurveyed.InMontana83%ofpeoplebelievetheirstategovernmentisefficientcomparedto51%inotherstatessurveyed.WiththebackdropofMontanaontherighttrack,MontanaAttorneyGeneralSteveBullockannouncedhiscampaignforGovernorinSeptember.TheProjectNewWestpollshowsGeneralBullockinstrongpositionforthe2012election.InaheadtoheadmatchupagainstthelikelyRepublicannomineeCongressmanRickHill,Bullockleadsbya4pointmarginof42%to38%.Bullockhasastrongfavorabilityratingthatisovertwotoonepositive(32%favorable/15%unfavorable).Bycomparison,MontanavotersaremoredividedonRickHill(17%favorable/19%unfavorable).Bullockisalsobetterknownstatewide,with61%ofvotersabletoidentifyhim,comparedtoonly50%whoknowHill.ThisisthethirdpublicpollreleasedthatshowsmoreMontanavotershaveanunfavorableopinionofformerCongressmanRickHillthanafavorableopinionofhim.Thesethreesetsofresearch-onepollfromKeatingResearchandtwofromPublicPolicyPolling-allfoundthatHillis"upside-down"inhisfavorability.Whenaskedthequestion,"DoyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionofRickHill?"inaNovember2010pollconductedbyPPP,16%ofvotersrespondedfavorable,while19%respondedunfavorable.Askedthesamequestion,bythesamepollsterinJuneofthisyear,20%respondedfavorable,while25%respondedunfavorable.Inthemostrecentsurvey,fromKeating,17%hadafavorableopinionofHill,while19%hadanunfavorableopinion.WhileRickHill'snamerecognition-albeitmodest,butsignificantlyhigherthanhis
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