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NVTC_Newsletter080317

NVTC_Newsletter080317

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05/09/2014

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\u00a9 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved.
1
NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366
Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 17 March 2008
THIS WEEK\u2019S CONTENTS:
Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:
CyclePoint \u2013 A New Market Timing Tool (Part 1 of 2)
\u2026\u2026
2
by Brent Penfold, Private Trader, Author, Trading Coach
Licensed Futures Adviser
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
\u2026\u2026..
6
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee
\u2026\u2026..
7
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)
\u2026\u2026..
8
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee
\u2026\u2026..
9
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI)
\u2026\u2026..
10
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee
\u2026\u2026..
11
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)
\u2026\u2026..
12
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee
\u2026\u2026..
13
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
\u2026\u2026..
14
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee
\u2026\u2026..
15
3. Regional Traders Education Events
\u2026\u2026..
16
Disclaimer and Copyright
\u2026\u2026..
16
\u00a9 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved.
2
1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
CyclePoint \u2013 A New Market Timing Tool
by Brent Penfold, Private Trader, Author, Trading Coach, Licensed Futures Adviser

Every trader wants to know when to buy low and when to sell high. Unfortunately the markets rarely
leave many clues as to their intentions so it\u2019s left up to the trader to undertake their own cycle analysis.
Analysis that will hopefully identify potential future market tops and bottoms.

To date traders have had to rely on traditional cycle analysis to locate future reversal points. Prominent cycle analysts will either fit into one of the following schools of analysis, or use a combination. Certainly my summary here of cycle analysis is neither exhaustive nor complete, however I hope it will give you a good overview.

To my knowledge there are three main schools of traditional cycle analysis.

1. Fixed and recurring cycles
2. Proportional cycles and
3. Projected fix bar/day count cycles

Fixed and Recurring Cycles
Many analysts believe cycles are fixed in length and recurring in nature. For example Jim Hurst, a
prominent American cycle analyst in the 1970s, believed market cycles occurred regularly at every 20
and 40 bars. Another example of a fixed and recurring cycle is the 4 year Presidential cycle. Many
believe the US share market completes an up and down swing (cycle) every 4 years.

Practitioners who use fixed recurring cycles (or a close variation) include:
\u2022
The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles
\u2022
Jim Hurst
\u2022
Walter Bressert
\u2022
Peter Eliades

Astrological based cycle analysis also forms part of this cycle school. There is a strict mathematical
relationship between the planets, moon and sun in our solar system. The times when certain heavenly
bodies align are fixed and recurring in nature. For example the Jupiter/Pluto conjunction occurs once
every 13 years. Now although rare the cycle is fixed (13 years) and is recurring (every 13 years).
Examples of the astrological school of fixed and recurring cycles include:

\u2022
The Bradley Model
\u2022
The Astro Wheel
\u2022
The sun and moon relationships
\u2022
The hundreds of aspects between the planets in our solar system
\u2022
WD Gann\u2019s times/cycles by degrees
\u00a9 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved.
3
Practitioners who use astrology in their cycle analysis include:
\u2022
Arch Crawford
\u2022
George Bayer
\u2022
Raymond Merriman
\u2022
Tim Bost
\u2022
Welles Wilder
\u2022
Christopher Carolan
\u2022
Larry Pesavento
\u2022
WD Gann
This school of thought looks to identify a fixed cycle length (i.e 20, 40, 80 or 120 bars/days/degrees/years
etc) and expect it to reappear over and over again.

Proportional Cycles
Another approach believes cycles are proportional (or geometric) to preceding cycles. For example if an
identified cycle was 100 days then a potential future cycle could occur at possibly 62 days (100 days x
0.618, a Fibonacci ratio) or 162 days (100 days x 1.618, another Fibonacci ratio). Within geometry
traders can use either Fibonacci, Harmonic or Arithmetic ratios to project future proportional cycles. Their
belief is the next cycle will be proportional to a preceding cycle. A trader can use any number of ratios
over multiple timeframes to project potential cycle turns. Some ratios include:

\u2022
Fibonacci ratios - 0.382, 0.618, 0.786, 1.272, 1.618, 2.168 \u2026 etc
\u2022
Harmonic ratios - 0.50, 0.707, 1.4142, 2.0 \u2026 etc
\u2022
Arithmetic ratios - 0.333, 0.667, 1.50\u2026 etc
Practitioners and theories that use geometry (or a close variation) in their cycle analysis include:
\u2022
Elliott Wave
\u2022
Robert Pretcher
\u2022
WD Gann
\u2022
Bryce Gilmore
\u2022
Robert Miner
\u2022
Larry Pesavento

Projected Fix Bar/Day Count Cycles
Another approach looks to project a fix number of trading bars or days forward following the completion
of a cycle. For example they could use the Fibonacci sequence and project forward 21, 34, 55, 89 or 144
bars/days/degrees/weeks/months etc from a previous cycle termination point to identify a potential future
turning point. A trader can use any sequence of numbers they choose, for example they could use:

\u2022
Fibonacci numbers \u2013 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 etc, or
\u2022
Lucas numbers - 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47, 76, 123 etc.

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