Professional Documents
Culture Documents
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
1
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Overview
• General overview of the Mobile
business
• Future vision of the Market
• Products and Service trends
• Finance and ROI
• Summary
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
2
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
3G/UMTS global update
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
3
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
50 Million 3G Customers Worldwide
WCDMA
WCDMA now
now exceeds
exceeds EV
EV--DO
DO by
by aa factor
factor of
of 22 33.1
million
17.0
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
4
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Turbulence in the Industry
A telecom industry faced with object of relentless
technological change and challenges on existing
Business.
-Regulatory environments, subject to change and desperate to regain some
stability and renewed revenue growth. Industry Standards vs Standards
bodies vs IT media standards.
• Skype reaches 100 million downloads, has 30+ million
users,1,500,000+ connected anytime, carried 7 billion+
free minutes!! Closing in on 10 billion by late june.
• Application Hosting and WEB Hosting is becoming very
popular.
• Bit-Pipe Carrier Business can be profitable- Yahoo
Broadband.
Business is moving to the Edge?
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
5
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Spheres of Influences
BROADCASTING INTERNET
Gray Area
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
6
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
The regulatory framework
− Today's regulators are reluctant to influence
− Success of GSM (and UMTS) is technology choices.
built upon concerted industry −„Technology Neutrality“ is supposed to
approach. provide a level playing field, but destroys
economies of scale.
− Requirement for roaming and
− Spectrum Trading provides new options for
interoperability are met. underutilized frequencies,but increases risk
− Globally harmonised frequency of incompatibility and fragmentation.
− Suitable (harmonized) spectrum is hard to
bands minimise requirements
find and in high demand.
for multi- mode / multi- band − New applications and usage scenarios
terminals. blur the boundaries.
− The purpose of the frequency band
should be retained: a cellular band
should be used for cellular systems, if
there is a demand? Mixing different
types of Services in the same band
causes fragmentation, inefficient use
of spectrum and may result in lack of
frequencies for the ‘main’ system.
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
7
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
The Vision towards one
integrated network
2012 & beyond
PSTN
PSTN // ISDN
ISDN
GSM IMS+iHSS
IMS+iHSS
GPRS/EDGE
WIMAX
WLAN
WiFi
WIMAX
3G
WCDMA-FDD PS
PS Core
Core
3G+HSDPA
WCDMA-FDD
3G+HSDPA+HSUPA
WCDMA-FDD IP BASED WIDEBAND
RAN
2002-03 2003-04 2005-06 2006-07 2008 2010 2012 & beyond
64-144kps 64-384kbps 384-5Mbps 3-20Mbps 10-50Mbps 20-100Mbps 20+to 100+ Mbps
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
8
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Data traffic is increasing
fast!
Gigabits per second (Gbps)
30.000
5.000
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
9
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
What does IMS provide?
• Cost efficiency –best choice from a service architecture
perspective.
• Mixed Multimedia
− Ability to pick and mix various multimedia flows in
single or multiple sessions
– Can handle real-time voice, video, data
– QoS
• Access Independence
– Provides access to IP based services independent
of the access network (mobile / fixed)
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
10
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Mapping of 3GPP Functions to IMS
Products R-SGW
SGW
Applications Operator 1
and Sh
HSS
Services HLR
Si ISC
IM-SSF SLF BGCF
SLF Mi
OSA-SCS Cx Dx
Mj
Sc
CSCF MGCF T-SGW
SGW Enabling Services
AS PCF Mg
Mr
Mc R-
Mp Applications Payment@vantage
Sr
SCP MRF-C MRF-P MGW Prepaid@vantage
Gm
Gr Gc Go Rating@vantage
CAP
Location, Presence, ...
„Gi- Cloud“ ISC
GGSN Sh
UE GERAN
Gn
CMS 8200
SGSN HSS
SIP Client Uu UTRAN Iu PO/PS-Domain
CCS 1000 MRF
PSTN /
CFX 5000 CFX 5200 PLMN
TDM
CMG 3000
IP
SIP UTRAN, IP
BSS Network
terminals
3G SGSN GGSN
CPX 5000 CPG 3300
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
11
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Trends in Mobile Broadband
Narrowband User Data Rate Broadband
High
speed 2G 2.5G
GSM 3G
Cellular technologies GPRS/EDGE
W-CDMA HSPA 3Gplus
802.20
become more and more Flash-OFDM
broadband
Level of mobility
Low
(TDD-HCR, TDD-LCR, HSPA) speed WiMAX
IEEE 802.16e
Pedestrian IEEE
802.16d
Nomadic
Alternative wireless Wi-Fi
IEEE 802.11
Indoor
technologies become Bluetooth
0,1 1 10 Mbps
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
12
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Cellular Access Network
evolution ????? 2015/2017
4G???
Super 3G 2008-15
Broad Objectives
-ALL IP
-100Mbps mobile
HSUPA 2006-07 Evolution of 3G -1Gbit/s fixed
instigated by -HDTV
Operators etc.
HSDPA 2005-06 OFDM/MIMO
Radical step change
2005 Integrated
Status Quo Up to 50% increase in -100Mbps downlink distrubtive
W-CDMA uplink - 50Mbps uplink technologies and
W-CDMA Downlink up to throughput
14Mbps. Typically - 10ms latency Trial concepts in
50-70% increase in - IP services Japan, Korea and
Downlink 144-384kbps 1-1.5 Mbit/s uplink capacity
IPv6 based Radio China.
urban and 64-144kbps Falls back to W-CDMA 20-55% reduction in
rual throughput at cell edge Access Network
end-user packet call
Footprint simliar to GSM Typically €0.025/Mbyte -Gb, Iu …
delay
Typically double GSM across network IPv6 based transport
network capacity Latency >100ms plane (signaling
interfaces)
Typically €0.05/ Mbyte
across network OFDMA/MIMO
Latency >200ms Driver:
ATM/IPv4 application All IPv6 infrastructure
support
Note: 1xEV-DO Rev A, TD-SCDMA, EDGE Phase 2, HSDPA 2 are not indicated
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
13
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
3GPP Long Term Evolution
(LTE) philosophy
• Current LTE focus is on enhancement of the
Universal Terrestrial Radio Access (UTRA)
• With HSDPA and Enhanced Uplink, UTRA will
remain highly competitive for several years
• LTE project aims to ensure the continued
competitiveness of the 3GPP technologies for the
longer term (10 years and beyond)
• Similar initiative underway for
GERAN (GSM/EDGE radio access)
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
14
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Spectrum issues
• Spectrum flexibility
– E-UTRA to operate in 1.25, 2.5, 5, 10, 15 and 20
MHz allocations…
– uplink and downlink…
– paired and unpaired
• Co-existence
− With GERAN/3G on adjacent channels
− With other operators on adjacent channels
− With overlapping or adjacent spectrum at
country borders
− Handover with UTRAN and GERAN
Possibly not a mandatory requirement (to help reduce
network and terminal complexity)
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
15
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Spectrum efficiency
•
User throughput
Downlink target:
• Significantly improved
spectrum efficiency and
– 3-4 times that of Release cell edge bitrate
6 HSDPA
– Whilst maintaining same
– Scaled according to site locations
spectrum bandwidth
• Downlink target
(bits/sec/Hz/site):
• Uplink target: – 3-4 times that of Release
– 2-3 times that of Release 6 HSDPA
6 Enhanced Uplink • Uplink target
– Scaled according to (bits/sec/Hz/site):
spectrum bandwidth – 2-3 times that of Release
6 Enhanced Uplink
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
16
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Mobility
• The Enhanced UTRAN (E-UTRAN) will:
– Be optimised for mobile speeds 0 to 15 km/h
– Support, with high performance, speeds
between 15 and 120 km/h
• Maintain mobility at speeds between 120 and 350
km/h
– And even up to 500 km/h depending on
frequency band
– Support voice and real-time services over entire
speed range
– With quality at least as good as UTRAN
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
17
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Cost considerations
• Optimisation of backhaul
• Maximised re-use of existing sites
• Maximise Multi-vendor interface
• Terminal complexity and power
consumption to be optimised/minimised
• Avoidance of complicated architectures
and unnecessary interfaces
• Efficient OAM&P (Operation,
Administration,Maintenance and
Administration,Provisioning)
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
18
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Timescales
• Initial studies and workplan creation to be
completed by June 2006
• Aim at developing relevant standards by
June 2007
Stong Industry interest to pull these dates
forward and have the technology ready by
2008!!!
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
19
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
WiMax Services & Applications
2005: Fixed Outdoor 2006 (16d): Fixed Indoor 2007/2008 (16e): Portable/Mobile
–E1/T1 level service for –Indoor ‘last mile’ access for - ‘Portable’ broadband access
enterprises consumers for consumers
–Backhaul for hotspots –Wireless DSL - Always best connected
–Limited residential broadband –Metrozone / Enterprise
access campus piconet
Metrozone
Fixed Portable/
Outdoor Mobile
Wi- Fixed
Fi
Indoor
Backhaul
Enterprise
Campus Piconet
Wi-Fi* Hotspot
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
20
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
A world of 3G/UMTS services
Information, entertainment, news, interactive games, video & movie clip downloads, high quality
streaming video, video telephony and conferencing, mobile TV, video messaging, sports
highlights, audio, ringtones, location-based services, mobile Internet & email, voice… AND MORE
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
21
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
3G/UMTS Terminals
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
22
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Device availability
Manufacturer’s market vision…
2H 2005
Nortel: HSDPA datacards commercially available
Ericsson: HSDPA PC cards, 1.8 Mbps
1Q 2006
Nortel: HSDPA Handsets commercially available
1H 2006
Ericsson: First HSDPA handheld terminals, 3.6 Mbps PC cards in volume
2H 2006
Ericsson: Mass market 3.6 Mbps terminals, G-RAKE (high resolution
screens, high update rate, 4 Megapixel cameras), 2nd generation PC
cards (7.2 Mbps, G-RAKE / Dual antenna)
Q2 2007
Nortel: HSUPA commercial datacards expected
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
23
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
World ARPU Decline will bottom out in 2006
Voice ARPU continues to dominate, but data
45
drives growth
€ per human user per month
40
35
30
25
Data ARPU
20
Voice ARPU
15
10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Com MN SM Market Assessment Status: August 2005
ARPU: Average Revenue Per Human User
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
24
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
SUMMARY
• 3G / UMTS is already a commercial reality with more than
33 million subscribers on almost 75 networks worldwide.
• 3G / UMTS uses globally harmonised spectrum and builds on
economies of scale of global GSM market (>1.3 billion customers).
• With HSDPA / HSUPA, mobile operators can significantly boost
performance of W-CDMA to achieve higher speeds & capacities.
• IMS offers the platform for 3G evolution and service convergence.
• IEEE technologies such as WiFi & WiMAX present
a valuable complement to operators’ pure cellular portfolios.
• Spectrum is the most critical resource in wireless communication,
worldwide roaming and economies of scale demand harmonization.
• The UMTS-Forum continues to contribute to the decision process.
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
25
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
For more information…
www.umts-forum.org
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
26
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
Value proposition of being
in the UMTS Forum
www.umts-forum.org
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
27
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
UMTS Forum is the industry voice for
3G/UMTS evolution
1. Giving guidance on realistic market uptake and protecting
industry investments by efficient use of rare resources
such as spectrum
2. Defending the terrestrial mobile industry position against
other future interests in WRC-07 to secure incremental
growth for this industry
3. Giving guidance to Regulators, Governments and
Standards bodies around the world to orientate key
spectrum, regulatory and technological choices
4. Complementing the work of other fora and international
bodies in the complete value chain for revenue growth
5. Addressing issues of mid and long-term evolution of
3G/UMTS that are not addressed elsewhere
6. Open to all business sectors and players
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
28
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
UMTS Forum Key Areas of Activity in 2005 (1)
Spectrum & Regulation
Studies and contributions on harmonisation of global spectrum and
additional spectrum arrangements for IMT-2000 and its evolutions in
preparation for WRC-07
Contributions to the development of the European decision harmonizing
the frequency band 2500-2690 MHz for IMT-2000/UMTS and defining the
channelling arrangements
Guidance to regulatory authorities and national administrations on 3G
licensing
Market forecasts (including UMTS Forum Report 37 “Magic Mobile
Future 2010-2020”) to assist with spectrum planning. Delivered as inputs
to ITU and CEPT.
3G Evolution
New edition of White Paper (Towards Mobile Broadband and Personal
Internet)
Report on HSDPA & HSUPA deployments
Studies on ultra low cost 3G terminals
IV Fórum TELECOM
27, September, 2005,
29
Pestana Palace Hotel, Lisbon
The Way Forward:
A new mission for the UMTS Forum
• Support and assist the licensing of UMTS in new markets
such as Russia, Brazil, India and China.
• Represent the interests of UMTS operators in matters
of frequency allocation (e.g WRC 2007).
• Support operators in their understanding of the potential
of new services (e.g based on HSPA and IMS)
• Carry out common assessment of the risks and opportunities
presented by new technologies (e.g WLAN, WiMAX, OFDM).
• Forecast long term societal and industry trends and their likely impact
on UMTS operators.