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IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report

IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report

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Published by rryan123123
October 2011 - Int'l Energy Agency
October 2011 - Int'l Energy Agency

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Published by: rryan123123 on Oct 27, 2011
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10/28/2011

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12 October 2011
HIGHLIGHTS
 
Oil
 
futures
 
tracked
 
latest
 
economic
 
developments
 
amid
 
the
 
worsening
 
European
 
debt
 
crisis,
 
which
 
triggered
 
downward
 
price
 
moves
 
throughout
 
September.
 
Prices
 
partially
 
recovered
 
on
 
renewed
 
optimism
 
that
 
European
 
leaders
 
would
 
address
 
euro
zone
 
financing
 
issues,
 
with
 
WTI
 
last
 
trading
 
at
 
$84.50/bbl
 
and
 
Brent
 
near
 
$108/bbl.
 
 
Global
 
oil
 
demand
 
is
 
revised
 
down
 
by
 
50
 
kb/d
 
for
 
2011
 
and
 
by
 
210
 
kb/d
 
for
 
2012
 
with
 
lower
than
expected
 
3Q11
 
readings
 
in
 
the
 
non
OECD
 
and
 
a
 
downward
 
adjustment
 
to
 
global
 
GDP
 
growth
 
assumptions.
 
Global
 
GDP
 
growth
 
is
 
now
 
seen
 
at
 
3.8%
 
in
 
2011
 
and
 
3.9%
 
in
 
2012
 
with
 
significant
 
downside
 
risks.
 
Demand
 
estimates
 
stand
 
at
 
89.2
 
mb/d
 
in
 
2011
 
(+1.0
 
mb/d
 
y
o
y)
 
and
 
90.5
 
mb/d
 
in
 
2012
 
(+1.3
 
mb/d).
 
 
Global
 
oil
 
supply
 
fell
 
by
 
0.3
 
mb/d
 
to
 
88.7
 
mb/d
 
in
 
September
 
from
 
August,
 
due
 
to
 
non
OPEC
 
outages.
 
Non
OPEC
 
supply
 
projections
 
are
 
trimmed
 
by
 
0.3
 
mb/d
 
for
 
4Q11
 
and
 
by
 
0.2
 
mb/d
 
for
 
2012,
 
with
 
annual
 
growth
 
averaging
 
0.2
 
mb/d,
 
to
 
52.8
 
mb/d,
 
and
 
0.9
 
mb/d
 
to
 
53.6
 
mb/d
 
for
 
2011
 
and
 
2012
 
respectively.
 
OPEC
 
NGL
 
output
 
averages
 
5.9
 
mb/d
 
in
 
2011
 
and
 
6.3
 
mb/d
 
in
 
2012.
 
 
OPEC
 
crude
 
oil
 
supply
 
nudged
 
down
 
to
 
30.15
 
mb/d
 
in
 
September
,
 
with
 
lower
 
Saudi
 
Arabian
 
and
 
Nigerian
 
output
 
partly
 
offset
 
by
 
resumed
 
Libyan
 
supply.
 
Output
 
there
 
reached
 
350
 
kb/d
 
in
 
early
 
October
 
and
 
capacity
 
is
 
assumed
 
at
 
600
 
kb/d
 
by
 
end
year.
 
The
 
4Q11
 
‘call
 
on
 
OPEC
 
crude
 
and
 
stock
 
change’
 
is
 
adjusted
 
up
 
by
 
0.3
 
mb/d
 
to
 
30.8
 
mb/d
 
on
 
lower
 
non
OPEC
 
supply,
 
with
 
the
 
2012
 
‘call’
 
unchanged
 
at
 
30.5
 
mb/d.
 
 
OECD
 
industry
 
oil
 
stocks
 
fell
 
counter
seasonally
 
in
 
August
 
by
 
3.4
 
mb
 
to
 
2
 
692
 
mb,
 
or
 
58.4
 
days
 
of 
 
forward
 
cover.
 
Preliminary
 
September
 
data
 
suggest
 
a
 
further
 
12.7
 
mb
 
decline
 
in
 
OECD
 
industry
 
stocks
 
and
 
a
 
drop
 
in
 
short
term
 
floating
 
storage.
 
OECD
 
stocks
 
since
 
July
 
fell
 
below
 
the
 
five
year
 
average
 
for
 
the
 
first
 
time
 
since
 
June
 
2008.
 
 
Global
 
crude
 
runs
 
estimates
 
for
 
3Q11
 
and
 
4Q11
 
are
 
revised
 
down
 
by
 
50
 
kb/d
 
and
 
75
 
kb/d
 
respectively
 
versus
 
last
 
month.
 
Lower
than
expected
 
Asian
 
throughputs
 
are
 
partly
 
offset
 
by
 
continued
 
robust
 
US
 
runs.
 
Global
 
throughputs
 
now
 
average
 
75.5
 
mb/d
 
in
 
3Q11
 
and
 
75.3
 
mb/d
 
in
 
4Q11.
 
Meanwhile,
 
OECD
 
refinery
 
rationalisation
 
continues.
 
 
 
Programmer/Statistician
The
 
International
 
Energy
 
Agency
 
(IEA),
 
an
 
intergovernmental
 
body
 
committed
 
to
 
advancing
 
security
 
of 
 
energy
 
supply,
 
economic
 
growth
 
and
 
environmental
 
sustainability
 
through
 
energy
 
policy
 
co
operation,
 
is
 
seeking
 
to
 
recruit
 
an
 
accomplished
 
Programmer/Statistician
 
to
 
help
 
maintain
 
and
 
further
 
develop
 
its
 
existing
 
statistical
 
databases
 
and
 
oil
 
market
 
modeling
 
capability.
 
The
 
successful
 
applicant
 
will
 
work
 
under
 
the
 
guidance
 
of 
 
the
 
Head
 
of 
 
the
 
Oil
 
Industry
 
and
 
Markets
 
Division
 
of 
 
the
 
IEA.
 
You
 
will
 
have:
 
 
A
 
university
 
degree(s)
 
in
 
relevant
 
quantitative
 
disciplines,
 
such
 
as
 
computer
 
programming,
 
statistics,
 
mathematics,
 
economics
 
or
 
engineering.
 
 
Strong
 
IT
 
skills
 
developed
 
over
 
a
 
number
 
of 
 
years
 
in
 
an
 
energy,
 
finance
 
or
 
market
related
 
working
 
environment.
 
 
Sound
 
working
 
knowledge
 
of 
 
programming
 
languages
 
(VBA
 
essential),
 
and
 
database
 
software,
 
and
 
be
 
highly
 
proficient
 
in
 
MS
 
Excel
 
and
 
Access.
 
High
 
competency
 
in
 
the
 
use
 
of 
 
statistical
 
modeling
 
software
 
such
 
as
 
E
Views
 
or
 
equivalent.
 
 
Ability
 
to
 
work
 
well
 
under
 
extremely
 
demanding
 
deadlines.
 
 
Excellent
 
level
 
of 
 
oral
 
and
 
written
 
communication
 
skills
 
and
 
excellent
 
drafting
 
ability
 
in
 
English;
 
a
 
working
 
knowledge
 
of 
 
French
 
would
 
be
 
an
 
advantage.
 
The
 
full
 
vacancy
 
notice
 
and
 
on
line
 
application
 
form
 
is
 
available
 
at
 
www.oecd.org
.
 
Click
 
on
 
 Job
 
Vacancies
,
 
(Job
 
Reference
 
No.
 
7940
 
Programmer/Statistician
 
– 
 
Oil 
 
Market 
).
 
On
line
 
applications
 
(in
 
English
 
or
 
French)
 
from
 
nationals
 
of 
 
OECD
 
Member
 
countries
 
should
 
include
 
a
 
CV
 
and
 
covering
 
letter
 
and
 
should
 
be
 
submitted
 
by 
 
no
 
later 
 
than
 
midnight 
 
(CET)
 
on
 
Friday
 
4
 
November
 
2011
.
 
Please
 
note
 
that
 
only
 
candidates
 
selected
 
for
 
interview
 
will
 
be
 
contacted.
 
The
 
OECD
 
is
 
an
 
equal 
 
opportunity 
 
employer 
 
offering
 
an
 
attractive
 
remuneration
 
 package
 
an
 
encourages
 
applications
 
 from
 
al
 
qualified 
 
candidates.
 
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques
 
 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT .......................................................................................................................................................................... 4DEMAND ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6Global Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8North America ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9Europe ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10Pacific .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12China .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13Other Non-OECD .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17OPEC Crude Oil Supply ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 18Libya Flexes its Production Muscle ............................................................................................................................................................. 21Non-OPEC Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22OECD ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23North America ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23North Sea .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25Middle East ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26Former Soviet Union (FSU) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 26Eastern Europe Looks Past the Druzhba ......................................................................................................................................................... 28Latin America ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29OECD STOCKS ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30OECD Inventory Position at End-August and Revisions to Preliminary Data ........................................................................................ 30From Peak to Trough in a Year, But Is This the Low-Point for Stocks Already? ............................................................................. 31IEA Libya Collective Action: Accounting for Government Oil Inventories in August .................................................................... 32Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes ...................................................................................................................................... 33OECD North America ................................................................................................................................................................................... 33OECD Europe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34OECD Pacific .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35Recent Developments in China and Singapore Stocks ................................................................................................................................. 36PRICES .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38Market Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38Futures Markets .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40Commodities: No Longer an Asset Class in their Own Right? ............................................................................................................ 42Spot Crude Oil Prices .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 43Spot Product Prices .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45Refining Margins .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47Review and Updates of US Refining Margin Model ................................................................................................................................. 48End-User Product Prices in September ........................................................................................................................................................... 49Freight ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50REFINING .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51Global Refinery Throughput ............................................................................................................................................................................... 51OECD Refinery Throughputs ............................................................................................................................................................................ 52Record Product Exports Drive High US Runs ......................................................................................................................................... 54Non-OECD Refinery Throughputs ................................................................................................................................................................... 56OECD Refinery Yields ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58TABLES ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59

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