A Tradecraft Primer:Structured Analytic Techniquesfor Improving Intelligence AnalysisPrepared by the US GovernmentMarch 2009
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the privatesector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not acomprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, theprimer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments,identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short,incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structurethinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
Introduction.................................................................................................................1How To Use These Techniques..................................................................................5Diagnostic Techniques................................................................................................7Key Assumptions Check.....................................................................................7Quality o Inormation Check.............................................................................10Indicators or Signposts o Change....................................................................12Analysis o Competing Hypotheses (ACH).......................................................14Contrarian Techniques...............................................................................................17Devil’s Advocacy................................................................................................17Team A/Team B.................................................................................................19High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis...............................................................22“What I?” Analysis.............................................................................................24 Imaginative Thinking Techniques..............................................................................27Brainstorming.....................................................................................................27Outside-In Thinking............................................................................................30Red Team Analysis.............................................................................................31Alternative Futures Analysis...............................................................................34Strategies or Using Structured Analytic Techniques................................................38Selective Bibliography...............................................................................................40
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