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Trade Craft Primer Apr09

Trade Craft Primer Apr09

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Published by Rizzox

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Published by: Rizzox on Oct 28, 2011
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03/24/2014

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 A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis Prepared by the US Government March 2009
 
 
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
 
Introduction .................................................................................................................1How To Use These Techniques ..................................................................................5Diagnostic Techniques ................................................................................................7 Key Assumptions Check .....................................................................................7 Quality of Information Check .............................................................................10 Indicators or Signposts of Change ....................................................................12 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) .......................................................14Contrarian Techniques ...............................................................................................17 Devil’s Advocacy ................................................................................................17 Team A/Team B .................................................................................................19 High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis ...............................................................22 “What If?” Analysis .............................................................................................24 Imaginative Thinking Techniques ..............................................................................27 Brainstorming .....................................................................................................27 Outside-In Thinking ............................................................................................30 Red Team Analysis .............................................................................................31 Alternative Futures Analysis ...............................................................................34Strategies for Using Structured Analytic Techniques ................................................38Selective Bibliography ...............................................................................................40
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