CooperationandCompetitionCore - CNDI

CNI o11 Spuce Cooperution VS.
Competition
Sturter Puck
1

Index

Lniqoeness ...........................................................................................................................
UnIqueness GeneruI - CooperuLIon Now ....................................................................................................................
UnIqueness GeneruI - CooperuLIon nevILubIe 1Jz..................................................................................................... q
UnIqueness GeneruI - No AsIu CooperuLIon ............................................................................................................... 6
UnIqueness GeneruI - No AsIu Coop ........................................................................................................................... ;
Cooperution Good ................................................................................................................. S
CooperuLIon Good - ConIIIcL EscuIuLIon 1Jz............................................................................................................... q
CooperuLIon Good - Spuce eudersIIp (1Jz) ............................................................................................................. 11
CooperuLIon Good - Spuce eudersIIp ExL............................................................................................................... 1
CooperuLIon Good - CompeLILIveness (1Jz).............................................................................................................. 1q
CooperuLIon Good - AccIdenLsJ DebrIs .................................................................................................................... 16
CooperuLIon Good - AsIu ........................................................................................................................................... 1;
CooperuLIon Good - CIInu ......................................................................................................................................... 18
CooperuLIon Good - Spuce Progrum - CosL ReducLIon ........................................................................................... 1q
Cooperution Bud ................................................................................................................. o
CooperuLIon Bud - CIInu - Spuce PrImucy .............................................................................................................. z1
CooperuLIon Bud - CIInu - Hegemony ...................................................................................................................... zz
CooperuLIon Bud - CIInu - MIIILurIzuLIon ................................................................................................................ z
CooperuLIon Bud - CIInu - EspIonuge ..................................................................................................................... zq
CooperuLIon Bud - CIInu - UndermInes Spuce Ops ................................................................................................ z
CooperuLIon Bud - CIInu - CIInese GrowLI (1Jz) ................................................................................................... z6
AT CooperuLIon Good - CosL ReducLIon ...................................................................................................................z8
Cooperution eIense ........................................................................................................... q
CooperuLIon uIIs - ProLecLIonIsm ........................................................................................................................... o
CooperuLIon uIIs - uundry IsL 1Jz ........................................................................................................................ 1
CooperuLIon uIIs - CIInu 1Jz ...................................................................................................................................

CNI o11 Spuce Cooperution VS. Competition
Sturter Puck

Lniqoeness
Sturter Puck

Lniqoeness Generul - Cooperution Now

Cooperutive spuce strutegy cornerstone oI Obumu's NSP
Iokoshimu - Nutionul Institote Ior eIense Stodies, Ministry oI eIense, Jupun - 1o
Yusohito, An Asiun perspective on the new LS spuce policy: The emphusis on internutionul
cooperution und its relevunce to Asiu, ecember

TIIs puper uIms Lo unuIyze LIe new US NuLIonuI Spuce PoIIcy (NSP) und exumIne ILs reIevunce Lo AsIu. PresIdenL
Buruck Obumu unnounced LIe new NSP In June zo1o, uILer InvILIng wIde specuIuLIon on Iow LIe new
udmInIsLruLIon wunLed Lo deIIne ILs NSP. TIe NSP Is u compreIensIve documenL wIIcI sLIpuIuLes prIncIpIes, gouIs
und InLer-secLoruI und secLoruI guIdeIInes Ior spuce ucLIvILIes; IL cun be unuIyzed Irom vurIous perspecLIves. Above
uII, LIe NSP`s greuL empIusIs on LIe ImporLunce oI InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon Ius sIgnIIIcunL
meunIng Ior AsIu. TIe USA Ius u Iong IIsLory oI InLernuLIonuI spuce cooperuLIon, especIuIIy In LIe IIeId oI cIvII
spuce, und pusL udmInIsLruLIons uIso pIedged LIe promoLIon oI InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon In LIeIr NSPs. Even LIe
Iormer BusI udmInIsLruLIon`s NSP, wIIcI wus someLImes regurded us u producL oI unIIuLeruIIsm, IncIuded
cooperuLIon wILI oLIer nuLIons us one oI LIe prIncIpIes oI US spuce progrums und ucLIvILIes.1 Obumu`s NSP
Is, Iowever, rooLed In cooperuLIon und IncorporuLes LIe concepL LIrougIouL, InsLeud oI jusL
menLIonIng IL In one secLIon. TIe InLroducLIon sLuLes LIuL LIe UnILed SLuLes Iereby renews ILs
pIedge oI cooperuLIon, wIereus Ior LIe prIncIpIes oI spuce ucLIvILIes, LIe USA wIII udIere Lo ILs
prIncIpIes In LIIs spIrIL oI cooperuLIon und proposes LIuL oLIer nuLIons IoIIow suIL. AIso, us one
oI LIe gouIs oI ILs nuLIonuI spuce progrums, empIusIs Is pIuced on LIe expunsIon oI InLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon. n LIe InLer-secLoruI guIdeIInes LIere Is u specIuI secLIon on InLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon, wIIcI sLIpuIuLes LIe need Lo sLrengLIen US spuce IeudersIIp, IdenLIIy ureus Ior
poLenLIuI InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon, und deveIop Lrunspurency und conIIdence-buIIdIng meusures
(TCBMs). AccordIng Lo u senIor udmInIsLruLIon oIIIcIuI, wIo pIuyed u cenLruI roIe In sIupIng LIe
documenL, enhuncing internutionul cooperution und colluborution in spuce is
positioned us u "key cornerstone in Obumu's NSP.z

Sturter Puck
q

Lniqoeness Generul - Cooperution Inevituble 1[

Globul cooperution over spuce is inevituble
Moltz - ProI @ Nuvul Postgrudoute School - 1o
Jumes, Chinu, the Lnited Stutes, und Prospects Ior Asiun Spuce Cooperution, ecember, Joornul
oI Contemporury Chinu {o11), o{6S), Junoury, 6q-S,

BuL LIe IncreusIng crowdIng oI spuce ILseII, LIe need Ior Improved conLroI over debrIs, und
expunded eIIorLs Lo uvoId coIIIsIons ure provIdIng Lop-down pressures on uII counLrIes-
regurdIess oI regIon-Lo cooperuLe more cIoseIy In 'munugIng` spuce. WIIIe reIuLIveIy uuLonomous
poIIcIes were possIbIe In LIe eurIy decudes oI spuce ucLIvILy, recenL evenLs (sucI us LIe zoo; CIInese
ASAT LesL und LIe zooq rIdIum-Cosmos coIIIsIon) und LIe resuILunL Increuse In orbILuI debrIs
Iuve Iorced counLrIes und LIeIr mIIILurIes Lo begIn LIInkIng more coIIecLIveIy ubouL spuce. TIe
recenL wIIIIngness oI LIe US AIr orce Lo expund ILs InLernuLIonuI duLu sIurIng on conjuncLIon
unuIysIs regurdIng spuce debrIs und suLeIIILe coIIIsIons murks u sIgnIIIcunL evoIuLIon In
AmerIcun LIInkIng. CIInu`s resLruInL Irom conducLIng uddILIonuI kIneLIc ASAT LesLs sInce zoo;
muy be purL oI LIe sume IeurnIng curve. TIese IucLors suggesL LIuL IncreusIng cooperuLIon und
Lrunspurency muy yeL emerge In LIe comIng yeurs, sInce sLuLes recognIze LIuL LIe uILernuLIve Is
LIe possIbIe Ioss oI suIe uccess Lo Iow-EurLI orbILuI spuce.

Sturter Puck
g

Lniqoeness Generul - Cooperution Inevituble [

Spuce cooperution inevituble

TIe Obumu NSP cIeurIy recognIzes LIuL InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon Is vILuI In uddressIng LIese
cIuIIenges. L sLuLes LIuL noL onIy LIe USA buL oLIer counLrIes uIso sIure LIe responsIbIIILy und cuIIs on uII
nuLIons Lo work LogeLIer Lo udopL upproucIes Ior responsIbIe ucLIvILy In spuce. AIso, LIe secLIon on
InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon In LIe InLer-secLoruI guIdeIInes specIIIes LIuL LIe USA wIII pursue bIIuLeruI
und muILIIuLeruI TCBMs Lo encouruge responsIbIe ucLIons In, und LIe peuceIuI use oI, spuce.
Now IL Is IncreusIngIy ImporLunL Ior LIe USA Lo go beyond ILs LrudILIonuI cooperuLIon wILI uIIIes und purLners, und
Lo expund cooperuLIon wILI vIrLuuIIy uII nuLIons. TIus, LIe Obumu udmInIsLruLIon sees InLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon us u key cornersLone oI ILs NSP noL onIy Lo Luke udvunLuge oI growIng
opporLunILIes, buL uIso Lo muInLuIn boLI US prImucy In spuce, und LIe suIeLy und securILy oI
spuce. or LIe USA now, internutionul cooperution hus been evolving Irom "nice to do
to "most do stutos.

Sturter Puck
6

Lniqoeness Generul - No Asiu Cooperution

{__) Luck oI inter-Asiun cooperution on spuce now

BuL meunIngIuI InLegruLIon oI spuce progrums wILIIn AsIu-und purLIcuIurIy beLween LIe mujor pIuyers
InvoIved-Ius noL occurred. TIIs IIgIIy nuLIonuIIsLIc Lrend umong AsIu`s IeudIng spuce powers Is
more consIsLenL wILI LIe jeuIous LendencIes oI US-SovIeL spuce compeLILIon, yeL Is sIurpIy uL odds wILI LIe
cIose coIIuboruLIon und deep IndusLrIuI InLerpeneLruLIon seen Loduy umong udvunced Europeun
counLrIes In spuce. NoLubIy, bIIuLeruI dynumIcs In LIe US-SovIeL spuce compeLILIon evenLuuIIy
IosLered muLuuI IeurnIng, resLruInL, und LIe IormuLIon oI u number oI urms conLroI ugreemenLs uIIecLIng
spuce, LIus provIdIng surprIsIng sLubIIILy In un oLIerwIse compeLILIve spuce reIuLIonsIIp. SucI
deveIopmenLs-purLIy becuuse oI LIe ubsence oI muILIIuLeruI securILy LuIks In regurd Lo spuce-Iuve noL
emerged umong AsIu`s spuce powers. Toduy, LIe UnILed SLuLes und LIe RussIun ederuLIon-wIIcI
urguubIy sLIII possess LIe worId`s Lwo mosL udvunced spuce progrums-now cooperuLe exLensIveIy In LIe ureu oI
spuce LecInoIogy. RussIun engInes power AmerIcun ALIus rockeLs Ior IuuncIIng US mIIILury puyIouds, und RussIun
Soyuz spucecruIL rouLIneIy deIIver AmerIcun usLronuuLs Lo LIe nLernuLIonuI Spuce SLuLIon (SS). No cooperuLIon Lo
LIIs degree exIsLs umong AsIu`s mujor spuce-IurIng nuLIons. ronIcuIIy, currenL Lrends In AsIu go uguInsL
predIcLIons by eurIIer LIeorIsLs oI poIILIcuI economy wIo urgued LIuL spuce mIgIL be un ureu unIqueIy
suILed Lo cooperuLIon umong udvunced counLrIes. As VIcLor BusIuk urgued In 1q;;: 'Advunced
LecInoIogIes, becuuse oI LIeIr Iuge cosLs, Iurge scuIe, und, In LIe cuse oI nucIeur weupons, Immense desLrucLIve
power, provIde un ImporLunL ImpeLus Lo InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon`.q WIIIe we do see sucI Lrends Loduy In Europe
und In LIe US-RussIun cIvII spuce conLexL, LIIs predIcLed InLegruLIon Ius noL Luken pIuce Lo duLe umong
LIe mosL deveIoped spuce powers In AsIu. L Is LIereIore worLI InvesLIguLIng wIy LIIs Is LIe cuse, wIy IL
muLLers, und wIuL (II unyLIIng) LIe UnILed SLuLes mIgIL be ubIe Lo do ubouL IL.
Sturter Puck
,

Lniqoeness Generul - No Asiu Coop

{__) Asiun spuce progrums primurily competitive in orientution

TIe muILIpoIur nuLure oI spuce compeLILIon In AsIu und LIe Iuck oI regIonuI securILy
orgunIzuLIons Iuve uIso pIuyed u roIe In ImpedIng cooperuLIon. TIere ure no bodIes currenLIy-ouLsIde
oI LIe UnILed NuLIons-LIuL brIng LogeLIer uII oI LIe key pIuyers Ior spuce securILy dIscussIons. Moreover,
reIuLIveIy IosLIIe poIILIcuI reIuLIonsIIps sLIII exIsL beLween muny cupILuIs In AsIu (New DeIII-
BeIjIng, New DeIII-sIumubud, SeouI-Tokyo, Pyongyung-SeouI, und Tokyo-BeIjIng), wIIcI Iuve Iowered
recepLIvILy Lo possIbIe cooperuLIon In spuce. InuIIy, LIe reIuLIve uvuIIubIIILy oI uILernuLIve
purLners (RussIu, UkruIne, runce, LIe UnILed KIngdom, und, Ior some, LIe UnILed SLuLes) wILI more
udvunced cupubIIILIes Ius mude regIonuI cooperuLIon wILIIn AsIu seem unnecessury und even
undesIrubIe, II u rIvuI mIgIL LIereby guIn u compuruLIve udvunLuge. AnoLIer crILIcuI IucLor Ius
been LIe reIuLIveIy cIosed nuLure oI mujor AsIun economIes, wIIcI Iuve LrudILIonuIIy resIsLed
cooperuLIve projecLs wILI poLenLIuI rIvuIs, purLIcuIurIy In un ureu oI LecInoIogy deemed crILIcuI Lo LIe nuLIon`s
economIc InIrusLrucLure. MercunLIIIsL sLruLegIes Iuve LIereIore prevuIIed In spuce, wILI counLrIes
seekIng IndependenL cupubIIILIes, sIunnIng oIIers oI cooperuLIon, und bIockIng uccess Lo LIeIr
domesLIc murkeLs. or LIese reusons, murkeL Iorces, InLerdependence, und prucLIces bused on nuLIonuI
dIvIsIons oI Iubor In dIIIerenL uspecLs oI spuce ucLIvILy Iuve noL been ubIe Lo emerge, us LIey Iuve In oLIer ureus oI
LIe AsIun murkeLpIuce. nsLeud, counLrIes Iuve beIuved In u IIgIIy 'un-economIc` munner In regurd Lo spuce,
pourIng Iurge InvesLmenLs InLo redundunL nuLIonuI progrums Ior reusons oI securILy und presLIge, wIIcI oILen
Iuve noL mude sense Irom u pureIy economIc perspecLIve. TImIng Ius uIso pIuyed u roIe In InIIbILIng
spuce cooperuLIon, us counLrIes Iuve sougIL Lo uvoId reveuIIng weuknesses und poLenLIuIIy
beIng 'Iocked InLo` InIerIor posILIons reIuLIve Lo rIvuIs. AsIun counLrIes Iuve been reIuLIve IuLe-comers In
spuce, und LIe IIgI cosL oI spuce progrums, LIe sopIIsLIcuLIon oI LIe LecInoIogIes InvoIved, und
LIe need Ior specIuIIy LruIned personneI und un expensIve InIrusLrucLure Iuve Increused LIe
roIe oI nuLIonuIIsm und IImILed LIe perceIved vuIue oI cooperuLIon wILI neIgIbors, purLIcuIurIy
LIose wILI LIe poLenLIuI Lo Iurm LIem. ndeed, IL Is Iurd Lo underesLImuLe Iow mucI LIe InLerpIuy beLween
deveIopmenLuI und securILy needs Ius uIIecLed (und IImILed) spuce cooperuLIon wILIIn AsIu.

Sturter Puck
S

Cooperution Good

Sturter Puck
q

Cooperution Good - ConIlict Isculution 1[
Spuce cooperution prevents conIlict esculution
Col Rendlemun und Iuolconer - 1o
Jumes und J. Wulter, Improving internutionul spuce cooperution: Considerutions Ior the LSA,
Spuce Policy 6 {o1o) 1q-1g1
q. GIobuI engugemenL or LIousunds oI yeurs, LrIbes, LIen cILIes, sLuLes, und nuLIons, Iuve Iormed cooperuLIve ugreemenLs, purLnersIIps und reIuLIonsIIps wILI oLIers Lo promoLe muLLers oI
muLuuI InLeresL, sucI us securILy und seII deIense, commerce, und IumunILurIun ussIsLunce. CooperuLIon presenLs un opporLunILy Lo deveIop
dependencIes umong nuLIons LIuL muy obviute conIlict. SucI sIurIng uIso gIves u nuLIon un
opporLunILy Lo guIn wIuL muy be u rure InsIgIL InLo wIuL u compeLILor or udversury knows ubouL
spuce LecInoIogIes und Iow LIey cun be empIoyed. TIIs undersLundIng cun help redoce the need to
prepure Ior doomsduy scenurios wIere one ImugInes or projecLs LIe LecInoIogIes LIuL un
udversury couId deveIop, regurdIess oI LIe LecInIcuI merIL or reuIILy. Toduy, InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon exLends Lo u wIoIe
IosL oI scIenLIIIc endeuvors, reIIecLIng LIe besL spIrIL und InLenLIons oI LIe OuLer Spuce TreuLy, wIose preumbIe cuIIs Ior spuce Lo be used Ior peuceIuI purposes.1q TIIs Ius been LIe Iope
sInce LIe begInnIngs oI LIe spuce eru. n 1q, beIore LIe very IIrsL successIuI spuce IuuncIes, cooperuLIon wus decIured u cenLerpIece oI US IoreIgn poIIcy sLruLegy wIen LIe WIILe House
unnounced: TIe PresIdenL Ius upproved pIuns by LIIs counLry Ior goIng uIeud wILI IuuncIIng oI smuII unmunned eurLI-cIrcIIng suLeIIILes us purL oI LIe UnILed SLuLes purLIcIpuLIon In LIe
nLernuLIonuI GeopIysIcuI .TIIs progrum wIII Ior LIe IIrsL LIme In IIsLory enubIe scIenLIsLs LIrougIouL LIe worId Lo muke susLuIned observuLIons In LIe regIons beyond LIe eurLI`s
uLmospIere.zo TIe IuII reuIIzuLIon oI cooperuLIon`s promIse occurred neurIy Iour decudes IuLer wILI LIe end oI LIe CoIdWur. Spuce und EurLI scIence reseurcI und spuce expIoruLIon were no
Ionger consLruIned by un overurcIIng compeLILIon beLween Lwo superpowers. CupILuIIzIng on opporLunILIes und IeverugIng LIe experLIse oI oLIer nuLIons, LIose seekIng Lo jumpsLurL or
udvunce LIeIr scIenLIIIc InILIuLIves rusIed InLo LIe new muILI-poIur worId creuLIng u surpIus oI InLernuLIonuI spuce uIIIunces und purLnersIIps.z1 TIe USA Is conLInuIng LIIs Lrend by reucIIng
ouL more consLrucLIveIy Lo Iurge nucIeur gIobuI powers IIke ndIu und CIInu, In LIe Iope LIuL sucI engugemenL sIupes LIeIr IuLure spuce und engIneerIng ucLIvILIes In posILIve dIrecLIons. OI
course, u nuLIon`s decIsIon Lo enguge In spuce cooperuLIon Is very mucI u poIILIcuI decIsIon. NuLIons pIck
und cIoose II, wIen, wIere, und Iow LIey expend LIeIr nuLIonuI Lreusure. TIey cIoose LIe munner und exLenL oI LIeIr IoreIgn InvesLmenLs Ior reusons boLI known und unknownLo oLIer
nuLIons. TIe onIy consLunL Is LIuL u decIsIon Lo joIn In cooperuLIon Is, In every cuse, u cuIcuIuLed poIILIcuI decIsIon by eucI poLenLIuI member oI u commercIuI purLnersIIp or uIIIunce, or InLer-
or quusI-governmenLuI sLrucLure. PrIvuLe commercIuI InvesLmenLs ure neurIy uIwuys conLroIIed uL u nuLIonuI IeveI, usuuIIy by LIe Iorce oI domesLIc (munIcIpuI) Iuw, reguIuLIon, or IIcensIng.zz
NuLIonuI decIsIon-mukIng InIIuences commercIuI und governmenL enLILy governIng sLrucLures. AccordIngIy, some spuce cupubIIILIes wIII be Iunded, deveIoped, und oIIered II und onIy II LIey
ure sLrIcLIy operuLed und conLroIIed under specIIIc nuLIonuI dIrecLIon und wILIIn sLruLegIc nuLIonuI guIdeIInes. TIus, mIIILury spuce cooperuLIon Lends Lo occur onIy wIen overurcIIng nuLIonuI
securILy mIIILury und InLeIIIgence communILy InLeresLs ure suLIsIIed. n conLrusL, InLernuLIonuI cIvII cooperuLIon generuIIy wIns InLernuI
nuLIonuI poIILIcuI supporL Ior u dIIIerenL seL oI reusons: LIuL Is, II LIe cooperuLIon generuLes nuLIonuI dIpIomuLIc
presLIge, provIdes Ior poIILIcuI susLuInubIIILy, or enubIes workIorce sLubIIILy.z CooperuLIon provIdes opporLunILIes Ior u
nuLIon Lo demonsLruLe ILs InLernuLIonuI IeudersIIp und LecInIcuI prowess. or exumpIe, ndIu Ius used ILs recenL
IuuncIes Lo IosL puyIouds Irom u number oI InLernuLIonuI purLners. SouLI Koreu Is IeverugIng RussIun IuuncI LecInoIogy Lo uLLempL spuce IuuncIes oI suLeIIILes In supporL oI ILs dreum Lo
become u Lop Len spuce IuIrIng nuLIon. RussIu und CIInu IuuncI suLeIIILes Ior mucI oI LIe gIobuI spuce IurIng communILy. UILImuLeIy, supporL Ior cooperuLIon
und coIIuboruLIon Increuses wIen LIe perceIved uLIIILy und dIpIomuLIc presLIge derIved Irom
cooperuLIon Increuses. A demonsLruLIon oI LIe uLIIILy oI dIpIomuLIc presLIge guIned Irom spuce
cooperuLIve endeuvors cun be seen In LIe ApoIIoe Soyuz spuce IInk-up (1q;) und Spuce SIuLLIee MIr
dockIng (1qq) mIssIons, LIougI noL Ior reusons conLuIned In LIe pubIIc pronouncemenLs by LIe purLIcIpunLs TIeIr Lrue und compIex
dIpIomuLIc uLIIILy wus noL mude uppurenL Ior muny yeurs. As descrIbed by Jumes Oberg: OnIy wILI LIe SovIeL progrum uL u
sLundsLIII dId Moscow ugree Lo IIy u joInL orbILuI mIssIon. Ls IuIIbuck posILIon wus LIuL II IL
couIdn`L be Number One In spuce, IL couId uL IeusL pose us LIe equuI purLner oI LIe new Number
One, LIe UnILed SLuLes. L wus beLLer LIun IeLLIng on Iow Iur beIInd ILs spuce progrum Iud
IuIIen.zq q.z. PoIILIcuI susLuInubIIILy nLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon Ius LIe wonderIuI, II someLImes wusLeIuI, cupucILy Lo
Increuse LIe poIILIcuI wIII Lo susLuIn und Iund spuce progrums und ussocIuLed budgeLs. As noLed,
cooperuLIon provIdes u spuceIurIng sLuLe LIe busIs Lo druw on uddILIonuI resources. L uIso
enubIes u progrum Lo weuLIer uLLempLs Lo reIn IL In even wIen Iuced wILI conLenLIous und
devusLuLIng cosL-growLI or budgeL reuIILIes (wIIcI mosL spuce progrums InvurIubIy Iuce). TIus, wILIIn LIe USA,
u progrum oILen wIns some suncLuury Irom cunceIIuLIon LIreuLs or sIgnIIIcunL budgeL
reducLIons Lo LIe exLenL LIuL Congress und LIe udmInIsLruLIon IeeI compeIIed noL Lo breuk,
sLreLcI, or wILIdruw Irom InLernuLIonuI ugreemenLs. PoIILIcuI good wIII Is generuLed by IundIng
LIese progrums. As un exumpIe oI LIe power oI LIIs good wIII, one onIy need Iook uL LIe poIILIcs surroundIng NASA`s munned progrum. Money Ius been uIIocuLed Lo LIe
progrum even wIen LIe perceIved jusLIIIcuLIon Ius coIIupsed. Now LIe new InLernuLIonuIIsL US presIdenL doesn`L cure mucI Ior LIe NASA munned mIssIon, und Ius even Iess undersLundIng oI
ILs scIence mIssIon. BuL crILIcs concede LIuL LIe presIdenL sees vuIue In LIe voLes ILs engIneerIng und conLrucLor
communILy represenLs, key especIuIIy In voLe rIcI sLuLes sucI us IorIdu wIIcI serve us u nexus Ior
munned US IuuncIes.
<conLInues>

Sturter Puck
1o

Cooperution Good - ConIlict Isculution [

<conLInued>
SImIIurIy, some reuson LIe poIILIcuI und dIpIomuLIc InLegruLIon oI RussIu InLo LIe SS progrum muy weII Iuve suved IL und Spuce SIuLLIe progrums Irom cunceIIuLIon.z Once cooperuLIon Ius
commenced, cunceIIng u progrum becomes InconsIsLenL wILI poIILIcuI susLuInubIIILy us Iong us LIe uLIIILy cosL ussocIuLed wILI LIe Ioss oI dIpIomuLIc beneIILs und LIe neguLIve eIIecLs on
repuLuLIon oI LermInuLIng un InLernuLIonuI ugreemenL Is Iurger In mugnILude LIun LIe uLIIILy cosL LIuL musL be puId Lo muInLuIn LIe sysLem. n generuI, uny unIIuLeruI
ucLIon sends u sIgnuI LIuL LIe ucLor Is un unpredIcLubIe und LIereIore un unreIIubIe und possIbIy
dIsrespecLIuI purLner. TIIs Lends Lo suboLuge LIe possIbIIILy oI IuLure cooperuLIon.z6 I sIgnIIIcunL cooperuLIon Ius
never prevIousIy occurred, ILs commencemenL Is LIougIL Lo be u deIInIng evenL, deIIverIng
specIIIc poIILIcuI rewurds und dIpIomuLIc uLIIILy. TIIs Is wIy LIe recenL pronouncemenLs on spuce cooperuLIon mude by PresIdenL Obumu und
CIInese oIIIcIuIs durIng IIs November zooq vIsILs ure beIng wuLcIed wILI specIuI InLeresL. TIe sume uLLenLIon Is beIng puId Lo LIe dIscussIons IeId wILI LIe ndIun governmenL und ILs spuce
communILy. DurIng LIe IeIgIL oI LIe CoId Wur LIe USA und LIe USS Rwere ubIe Lo IInd common ground Lo press on wILI LIe ApoIIoe Soyuz mIssIon despILe IongsLundIng securILy concerns.
PerIups sImIIur common ground cun be Iound wILI LIe CIInese. umenLubIy, spuce cooperuLIon beLween LIe Lwo counLrIes Ius LIus Iur been onIy murgInuI gIven LIe sLrIcL securILy conLroIs
LIuL needed Lo be Imposed. TIe CIInese, IIke muny oLIers, ure expIoILIng spuce LecInoIogIes Lo Improve mIssIIe sysLems LIuL cun deIIver weupons oI muss desLrucLIon und LIey ure sLeuIIng
every LecInoIogy LIey cun geL LIeIr Iunds on. CIInu Ius now LesLed u kIneLIc-kIII unLI-suLeIIILe weupon sysLem.

Sturter Puck
11

Cooperution Good - Spuce Leudership {1[)

Internutionul cooperution is criticul to L.S. spuce leudership
Newton 11 {Ilizubeth K., ProIessor oI Physics - Lniversity oI Alubumu, Hontsville und Michuel .
GriIIin, Iormer Administrutor - NASA und Iminent Scholur und ProIessor - Lniversity oI
Alubumu, Hontsville, "Lnited Stutes Spuce Policy und Internutionul Purtnership, Spuce Policy,
,{1), Iebroury, p. S)

1. WIII LIe USA be more secure? As sLuLed In LIe WIILe House`s spuce poIIcy und ynn`s prevIew oI LIe NuLIonuI
SecurILy Spuce SLruLegy, US securILy IInges on IosLerIng u cooperuLIve, predIcLubIe spuce
envIronmenL wIere counLrIes cun operuLe In u sLubIe, susLuInubIe wuy. PIunned debrIs LruckIng
sLundurds, consIderuLIons oI InLernuLIonuI 'ruIes oI LIe roud`, und sIured duLu seLs Ior coIIIsIon
uvoIdunce und debrIs mILIguLIon ure meusures LIuL undoubLedIy wIII conLrIbuLe Lo LIe securILy
oI spuce us u sIured venue Ior nuLIonuI ucLIvILIes. TIe sLuLed desIre Lo deveIop u CombIned Spuce
OperuLIons CenLer Ior couIILIon operuLIons couId expund uccess Lo InIormuLIon, uwureness, und servIces.
everugIng purLner cupubIIILIes, InLegruLIng LIem InLo sysLem urcIILecLures, und IncreusIng LIe
InLeroperubIIILy oI sysLems ure ImporLunL pIunned sLeps us weII. TIese new sLruLegIes do noL dImInIsI
LIe USA`s currenL sLrengLIs In LIe nuLIonuI securILy spuce reuIm und quILe IIkeIy sLund Lo cupILuIIze on
InLernuLIonuI InLeresL In muILIIuLeruI soIuLIons. urLIer InIormuLIon wIII doubLIess be IorLIcomIng In LIe
Spuce PosLure RevIew. One mIgIL uIso menLIon, under LIe LIeme oI securILy, LIe USA`s ubIIILy Lo uccess ILs
sLruLegIc usseLs In spuce. On LIe cIvII spuce sIde, LIe 'gup` In LIe governmenL`s ubIIILy Lo uccess LIe
nLernuLIonuI Spuce SLuLIon (SS), u >$;o bIIIIon usseL, uILer LIe SIuLLIe`s reLIremenL Is cerLuInIy deLrImenLuI
Irom u sLruLegIc poInL oI vIew. TIe USA wIII be dependenL on LIe goodwIII oI InLernuLIonuI
purLners unLII un us-yeL-unreuIIzed commercIuI cupubIIILy becomes uvuIIubIe. However even LIen, LIe poIIcy`s
Iuck oI supporL Ior IuvIng un IndependenL IederuI cupubIIILy Is worryIng, Ior IL Is LunLumounL Lo reIyIng on edEx
wILIouL LIe buck-up oI u US posLuI servIce; or on commercIuI uIrIInes wILIouL uILernuLIve mIIILury uIr LrunsporL; or
on commercIuI weuLIer IorecusLIng wILIouL u NuLIonuI OceunogrupIIc und ALmospIerIc Agency (NOAA).

Sturter Puck
1

Cooperution Good - Spuce Leudership {[)

Spuce leudership is rupidly eroding --- risks collupsing wurIighting und overull
hegemony
Yoong S {A. Thomus, Chuir - Institote Ior eIense Anulyses Reseurch Groop, et ul., "Leudership,
Munugement, und Orgunizution Ior Nutionul Secority Spuce, Joly,
http:[[www.urmyspuce.urmy.mil[ASJ[Imuges[Nutionul_Secority_S
puce_Stody_Iinul_Sept_16.pdI)
Toduy, U.S. IeudersIIp In spuce provIdes u vILuI nuLIonuI udvunLuge ucross LIe scIenLIIIc,
commercIuI, und nuLIonuI securILy reuIms. n purLIcuIur, spuce Is oI crILIcuI ImporLunce Lo our
nuLIonuI InLeIIIgence und wurIIgILIng cupubIIILIes. TIe puneI members neverLIeIess ure ununImous In our convIcLIon
LIuL, wILIouL sIgnIIIcunL ImprovemenLs In LIe IeudersIIp und munugemenL oI NSS progrums, U.S. spuce
preemInence wIII erode Lo LIe exLenL LIuL spuce ceuses Lo provIde u compeLILIve nuLIonuI securILy udvunLuge. Spuce
LecInoIogy Is rupIdIy proIIIeruLIng ucross LIe gIobe, und muny oI our mosL ImporLunL cupubIIILIes und successes were deveIoped und IIeIded
wILI u governmenL LecInIcuI workIorce und u munugemenL sLrucLure LIuL no Ionger exIsL. |CONTNUES| U.S. eudersIIp In Spuce Is u VILuI NuLIonuI AdvunLuge Spuce
cupubIIILIes underpIn U.S. economIc, scIenLIIIc, und mIIILury IeudersIIp. TIe spuce enLerprIse
Is embedded In LIe IubrIc oI our nuLIon`s economy, provIdIng LecInoIogIcuI IeudersIIp und
susLuInmenL oI LIe IndusLrIuI buse. To cILe buL one exumpIe, LIe GIobuI PosILIonIng SysLem (GPS) Is LIe worId sLundurd Ior
precIsIon nuvIguLIon und LImIng. GIobuI uwureness provIded Irom spuce provIdes LIe ubIIILy Lo eIIecLIveIy
pIun Ior und respond Lo sucI crILIcuI nuLIonuI securILy requIremenLs us InLeIIIgence on LIe mIIILury
cupubIIILIes oI poLenLIuI udversurIes, InLeIIIgence on Weupons oI Muss DesLrucLIon (WMD) progrum proIIIeruLIon,
IomeIund securILy, und mIssIIe wurnIng und deIense. MIIILury sLruLegy, operuLIons, und LucLIcs
ure predIcuLed upon LIe uvuIIubIIILy oI spuce cupubIIILIes. TIe mIIILury use oI spuce-bused cupubIIILIes Is becomIng
IncreusIngIy sopIIsLIcuLed, und LIeIr use In OperuLIon EndurIng reedom und OperuLIon ruqI reedom Is pervusIve.
Globul nocleur wur
Arbutov , {Alexei, Member - Rossiun Acudemy oI Sciences und Iditor - Rossiu in Globul AIIuirs,
"Is u New Cold Wur Imminent?, Rossiu in Globul AIIuirs, g{), Joly [ September,
http:[[eng.globuluIIuirs.ro[nombers[o[11o.html)
However, LIe Iow probubIIILy oI u new CoId Wur und LIe coIIupse oI AmerIcun unIpoIurILy (us u poIILIcuI docLrIne, II noL In reuIILy) cunnoL
be u cuuse Ior compIucency. MuILIpoIurILy, exIsLIng objecLIveIy uL vurIous IeveIs und InLerdependenLIy, IoIds muny dIIIIcuILIes und LIreuLs. or exumpIe, II LIe
RussIu-NATO conIronLuLIon persIsLs, IL cun do mucI dumuge Lo boLI purLIes und InLernuLIonuI securILy. Or,
uILernuLIveIy, II Kosovo secedes Irom SerbIu, LIIs muy provoke sImIIur processes In AbkIuzIu, SouLI OsseLIu und TrunsdnIesLrIu, und InvoIve RussIu In urmed conIIIcLs wILI GeorgIu und
MoIdovu, Lwo counLrIes LIuL ure supporLed by NATO. AnoLIer IIusI poInL InvoIves UkruIne. n LIe evenL oI KIev`s sudden udmIssIon InLo LIe NorLI ALIunLIc AIIIunce (recenLIy suncLIoned by
LIe U.S. Congress), sucI u move muy dIvIde UkruIne und provoke muss dIsorders LIere, LIus mukIng IL dIIIIcuIL Ior RussIu und LIe WesL Lo reIruIn Irom InLerIerIng. MeunwIIIe, U.S. pIuns Lo
buIId u mIssIIe deIense sysLem In CenLruI und EusLern Europe muy cuuse RussIu Lo wILIdruw Irom LIe N TreuLy und resume progrums Ior producIng InLermedIuLe-runge mIssIIes.
WusIIngLon muy respond by depIoyIng sImIIur mIssIIes In Europe, wIIcI wouId drumuLIcuIIy Increuse LIe vuInerubIIILy oI RussIu`s sLruLegIc Iorces und LIeIr conLroI und wurnIng sysLems. TIIs
couId muke LIe sLuge Ior nucIeur conIronLuLIon even Lenser. OLIer cenLers oI power wouId ImmedIuLeIy derIve beneIIL Irom LIe growIng RussIu-WesL sLundoII, usIng IL In LIeIr own InLeresLs.
CIInu wouId receIve un opporLunILy Lo occupy even more udvunLugeous posILIons In ILs economIc und poIILIcuI
reIuLIons wILI RussIu, LIe U.S. und Jupun, und wouId consoIIduLe ILs InIIuence In CenLruI und SouLI AsIu und LIe PersIun GuII regIon.
ndIu, PukIsLun, member counLrIes oI LIe AssocIuLIon oI SouLIeusL AsIun NuLIons und some exuILed regImes In uLIn AmerIcu wouId
IurdIy mIss LIeIr cIunce, eILIer. A muILIpoIur worId LIuL Is noL movIng Lowurd nucIeur dIsurmumenL Is u worId oI un expundIng NucIeur CIub. WIIIe RussIu
und LIe WesL conLInue Lo urgue wILI eucI oLIer, sLuLes LIuL ure cupubIe oI deveIopIng nucIeur weupons oI LIeIr own wIII jump uL LIe opporLunILy. TIe probubIIILy oI
nucIeur weupons beIng used In u regIonuI conIIIcL wIII Increuse sIgnIIIcunLIy. nLernuLIonuI sIumIc
exLremIsm und LerrorIsm wIII Increuse drumuLIcuIIy; LIIs LIreuL represenLs LIe reverse sIde oI gIobuIIzuLIon. TIe
sILuuLIon In AIgIunIsLun, CenLruI AsIu, LIe MIddIe EusL, und NorLI und EusL AIrIcu wIII IurLIer
desLubIIIze. TIe wuve oI mIIILunL sepuruLIsm, Lruns-border crIme und LerrorIsm wIII uIso InIIILruLe WesLern Europe,
RussIu, LIe U.S., und oLIer counLrIes. TIe survIvIng dIsurmumenL LreuLIes (LIe Non-ProIIIeruLIon TreuLy, LIe
ConvenLIonuI Armed orces In Europe TreuLy, und LIe CompreIensIve NucIeur TesL Bun TreuLy) wIII coIIupse. n u worsL-cuse
scenurIo, LIere Is LIe cIunce LIuL un udvenLuresome regIme wIII InILIuLe u mIssIIe IuuncI uguInsL LerrILorIes or
spuce suLeIIILes oI one or severuI greuL powers wILI u vIew Lo LrIggerIng un excIunge oI nucIeur sLrIkes beLween LIem.
AnoLIer IIgI probubIIILy Is LIe LIreuL oI u LerrorIsL ucL wILI LIe use oI u nucIeur devIce In one or severuI mujor cupILuIs oI LIe worId.
Sturter Puck
1

Cooperution Good - Spuce Leudership Ixt

LQ[IL - Cooperution key to muintuining spuce primucy und commerciul
competitiveness

everugIng LIe IncreusIng opporLunILIes Lo work LogeLIer wILI oLIer counLrIes Is noL LIe onIy uIm oI LIe NSP. TIe
cIungIng envIronmenL oI spuce ucLIvILIes Ius pressured LIe USA InLo underLukIng u more
InLensIIIed poIIcy oI InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon. One reuson the LSA needs cooperution is
closely connected to LIe Ieur oI weukening LS primucy in spuce. AIong wILI LIe USSR
(RussIu), LIe USA Ius been LIe IeudIng spuce power und, especIuIIy uILer LIe SovIeL breukup, IL Ius enjoyed u Iuge
udvunLuge In LIIs IIeId. n zooq IL Is esLImuLed LIuL LIe US governmenL spuce budgeL ($6q.qz bIIIIon) uccounLed
Ior u quurLer oI LIe gIobuI spuce economy ($z61.61 bIIIIon) und ubouL LIree-quurLers oI uggreguLe worId
governmenL spuce budgeLs ($86.1; bIIIIon). TIe currenL US prImucy In spuce Is, Iowever, no Ionger
secure und Is cIuIIenged by budgeL pressures und growIng compeLILIon. TIe pusI Ior more
budgeL cuLs Is especIuIIy uppurenL In LIe nuLIonuI securILy spuce secLor. n June zo1o DeIense
SecreLury RoberL M. GuLes unnounced IIs InLenLIon Lo suve over $1oo bIIIIon oI LIe deIense budgeL over u IIve-yeur
perIod sLurLIng Irom IIscuI yeur zo1z und LIIs Is wIere LIe spuce-reIuLed budgeL Is expecLed Lo suIIer.6 n uddILIon,
LIe proIIIeruLIon oI spuce ucLIvILIes Ius InLensIIIed IeuLed compeLILIon In spuce. or exumpIe, LIe
US GIobuI PosILIonIng SysLem (GPS) Ius been wIdeIy used us LIe goId sLundurd Ior spuce-bused posILIonIng,
nuvIguLIon und LImIng (PNT) und generuLed Iuge posILIve economIc eIIecLs.; NeverLIeIess, oLIer counLrIes
Iuve recenLIy been prepurIng LIeIr own gIobuI nuvIguLIon suLeIIILe sysLems (GNSS). RussIu Is
rebuIIdIng ILs GIonuss consLeIIuLIon, wIIcI uIms Lo be IuIIy operuLIonuI by LIe end oI zo1o.8
Europeun counLrIes ure IundIng LIe GuIIIeo sysLem, wIIcI Is scIeduIed Lo be purLIuIIy operuLIonuI In
zo1q.q CIInu Is uIso consLrucLIng LIe BeIdouJCompuss sysLem, wIIcI Is InLended Lo ucIIeve gIobuI
coveruge by uround zozo.1o TIese sysLems ure desIgned Lo be duuI-use und ure sure Lo Iuve greuL ImpucL on
reIuLed murkeLs. Under LIese cIrcumsLunces LIe USA Is uLLempLIng Lo muInLuIn ILs prImucy In
spuce by uLIIIzIng Increused InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon und coIIuboruLIon. MIcIueI NucIL, LIe
AssIsLunL SecreLury oI DeIense Ior GIobuI AIIuIrs, sLuLed In Muy zo1o LIuL expecLuLIons oI IIuL Lo decIInIng
mIIILury spuce budgeLs In LIe nexL coupIe oI yeurs Is LIe moLIvuLIon Ior enIuncIng InLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon.11urLIermore, wIIIe spuce Is becomIng u more compeLILIve domuIn wIere oLIer nuLIons ure
IncreusIng LIeIr presence, LIe USA seems Lo be uImIng Lo sIupe LIe dIrecLIon oI gIobuI spuce
ucLIvILIes In ILs Iuvor und Lo expund ILs murkeL opporLunILIes LIrougI cooperuLIon wILI oLIer
nuLIons. n LIe cuse oI spuce-bused PNT, LIe new NSP sLIpuIuLes LIuL, Ior LIe purpose oI muInLuInIng
US IeudersIIp In LIIs ureu, LIe counLry sIuII enguge wILI IoreIgn GNSS provIders Lo encouruge
compuLIbIIILy und InLeroperubIIILy, promoLe Lrunspurency In cIvII servIce provIsIon, und enubIe
murkeL uccess Ior US IndusLry.

Sturter Puck
1q

Cooperution Good - Competitiveness {1[)

{__) Cooperution key to competitiveness

ScIenLIIIc reseurcI, engIneerIng, und InnovuLIon ure uL LIe IeurL oI LIe success oI LIe US
economy und worId IeudersIIp. Some urgue LIuL LIe ApoIIo Moon IundIng progrum IuId LIe
LecInIcuI IounduLIons und InIrusLrucLure underpInnIng udvunces by LIe USA Ior LIe nexL qo
yeurs. L InspIred Iundreds oI LIousunds Lo become engIneers und IIve on LIe InnovuLIon IronLIInes. Ls
communIcuLIons, weuLIer, precIsIon nuvIguLIon und LImIng, surveIIIunce und wurnIng suLeIIILes sysLems becume
purL oI u revoIuLIon LIuL connecLed LIe USA und LIe resL oI LIe worId. Even wIen InLeresL In munned spuce
progrums wuned, LIe engIneers IL generuLed drove u LecInoIogIcuI InnovuLIon engIne LIuL
spurked muny yeurs oI udvunces u cross muny oLIer urenus. TIese successes rIgILIy Ied Lo LIe
zoLI cenLury beIng cuIIed LIe AmerIcun CenLury. Over LIe pusL o yeurs, o-8% oI LIe growLI In
AmerIcu`s gross nuLIonuI producL (GNP) cun be uLLrIbuLed Lo ILs scIence und engIneerIng sLrengLIs. As
noLed In u recenL reporL pubIIsIed by LIe NuLIonuI Acudemy oI ScIences, scIenLIsLs und engIneers Lend,
LIrougI InnovuLIon, Lo creuLe new jobs noL onIy Ior LIemseIves buL uIso Ior workers LIrougIouL
LIe economy.z; TIey generuLe economIc growLI Ior oLIers unIIke muny oLIer eIemenLs oI socIeLy, und LIIs
success Is IIgIIy Ieveruged; onIy q% oI LIe US workIorce Is InvoIved In engIneerIng und scIence.z8 Muny oLIer
nuLIons ure euger Lo dupIIcuLe LIIs success. TIey ure workIng dIIIgenLIy Lo grow IndIgenous cupubIIILIes Lo expIoIL
orbILuI spuce Ior LIeIr own commercIuI or mIIILury guIn, or Ior nuLIonuI prIde. TIIs Ius uII Iud LIe eIIecL oI
generuLIng consIderubIe InLeresL Irom oLIer nuLIons und commercIuI enLILIes Lo seek spuce cooperuLIon wILI USA
und oLIer poLenLIuI purLners. nILIuIIy sucI spuce cooperuLIon mIgIL be perceIved us InImIcuI Lo LIe US uerospuce
IndusLrIuI buse: cooperuLIon couId cuuse decreused domesLIc empIoymenL becuuse IoreIgn nuLIons couId LIen
buIId spuce sysLems und componenLs LIuL mIgIL oLIerwIse Iuve been consLrucLed In LIe USA. ndIu und CIInu ure
producIng Iuge numbers oI scIence, LecInoIogy, engIneerIng, und muLI (STEM) quuIIIIed munpower In LIeIr rusI
Lo become IIrsL-LIer superpowers. TIIs Is probIemuLIc Ior LIe USA, us cooperuLIon wILI sucI sLuLes couId uIIow
LIem evenLuuIIy Lo beLLer engIneer und LIen undercuL US murkeLs. WIIIe InLernuLIonuI spuce progrums oILen
survIve LIe US Congress` budgeL knIIe Ior LIe presLIge und poIILIcuI reusons descrIbed ubove, spendIng on
cooperuLIve progrums uIso generuLes Iurge numbers oI jobs. n Lurn, LIese cun serve us key
sources oI revenue In IocuI communILIes or umong IeudIng edge und educuLed engIneerIng
consLILuencIes. TIose wIo ure empIoyed In sucI progrums beneIIL Irom LIe governmenL Iurgess LIuL urIses ouL
oI LIe cooperuLIve spuce eIIorL`s presLIge und poIILIcuI supporL. On LIe oLIer Iund, LIe prospecLIve Ioss oI
uerospuce communILy jobs und revenue cun eusIIy pose u serIous poIILIcuI probIem Ior boLI LIe udmInIsLruLIon und
Congress. GIven LIIs, poIILIcuI uppoInLee und eIecLed oIIIcIuI percepLIons oI ongoIng InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon
progrums Is u muLLer oI greuL ImporLunce.

Sturter Puck
1g

Cooperution Good - Competitiveness {[)

Iconomic decline cuoses globul wur
Royul 1o {Jedediuh, irector oI Cooperutive Threut Redoction - L.S. epurtment oI eIense,
"Iconomic Integrution, Iconomic Signuling und the Problem oI Iconomic Crises, Iconomics oI
Wur und Peuce: Iconomic, Legul und Politicul Perspectives, Id. Goldsmith und Bruoer, p. 1-1g)

ess InLuILIve Is Iow perIods oI economIc decIIne muy Increuse LIe IIkeIIIood oI exLernuI conIIIcL.
PoIILIcuI scIence IILeruLure Ius conLrIbuLed u moderuLe degree oI uLLenLIon Lo LIe ImpucL oI economIc decIIne und
LIe securILy und deIence beIuvIour oI InLerdependenL sLuLes. ReseurcI In LIIs veIn Ius been consIdered uL
sysLemIc, dyudIc und nuLIonuI IeveIs. SeveruI noLubIe conLrIbuLIons IoIIow. IrsL, on LIe sysLemIc IeveI, PoIIIns
(zoo8) udvunces ModeIskI und TIompson's (1qq6) work on IeudersIIp cycIe LIeory, IIndIng LIuL rIyLIms In LIe
gIobuI economy ure ussocIuLed wILI LIe rIse und IuII oI u pre-emInenL power und LIe oILen
bIoody LrunsILIon Irom one pre-emInenL Ieuder Lo LIe nexL. As sucI, exogenous sIocks sucI us
economIc crIses couId usIer In u redIsLrIbuLIon oI reIuLIve power (see uIso GIIpIn. 1q81) LIuL Ieuds Lo
uncerLuInLy ubouL power buIunces, IncreusIng LIe rIsk oI mIscuIcuIuLIon (euver, 1qq). AILernuLIveIy, even
u reIuLIveIy cerLuIn redIsLrIbuLIon oI power couId Ieud Lo u permIssIve envIronmenL Ior conIIIcL
us u rIsIng power muy seek Lo cIuIIenge u decIInIng power (Werner. 1qqq). SepuruLeIy, PoIIIns (1qq6) uIso sIows
LIuL gIobuI economIc cycIes combIned wILI puruIIeI IeudersIIp cycIes ImpucL LIe IIkeIIIood oI conIIIcL umong
mujor, medIum und smuII powers, uILIougI Ie suggesLs LIuL LIe cuuses und connecLIons beLween gIobuI economIc
condILIons und securILy condILIons remuIn unknown. Second, on u dyudIc IeveI, CopeIund's (1qq6, zooo) LIeory oI
Lrude expecLuLIons suggesLs LIuL 'IuLure expecLuLIon oI Lrude' Is u sIgnIIIcunL vurIubIe In
undersLundIng economIc condILIons und securILy beIuvIour oI sLuLes. He urgues LIuL InLerdependenL
sLuLes ure IIkeIy Lo guIn pucIIIc beneIILs Irom Lrude so Iong us LIey Iuve un opLImIsLIc vIew oI IuLure Lrude reIuLIons.
However, II LIe expecLuLIons oI IuLure Lrude decIIne, purLIcuIurIy Ior dIIIIcuIL Lo repIuce ILems sucI us
energy resources, LIe IIkeIIIood Ior conIIIcL Increuses, us sLuLes wIII be IncIIned Lo use Iorce Lo guIn
uccess Lo LIose resources. CrIses couId poLenLIuIIy be LIe LrIgger Ior decreused Lrude expecLuLIons
eILIer on ILs own or becuuse IL LrIggers proLecLIonIsL moves by InLerdependenL sLuLes.q TIIrd, oLIers Iuve
consIdered LIe IInk beLween economIc decIIne und exLernuI urmed conIIIcL uL u nuLIonuI IeveI.
BIomberg und Hess (zooz) IInd u sLrong correIuLIon beLween InLernuI conIIIcL und exLernuI
conIIIcL, purLIcuIurIy durIng perIods oI economIc downLurn. TIey wrILe: TIe IInkuges beLween InLernuI
und exLernuI conIIIcL und prosperILy ure sLrong und muLuuIIy reInIorcIng. EconomIc conIIIcL Lends Lo spuwn
InLernuI conIIIcL, wIIcI In Lurn reLurns LIe Iuvour. Moreover, LIe presence oI u recessIon Lends Lo umpIIIy
LIe exLenL Lo wIIcI InLernuLIonuI und exLernuI conIIIcLs seII-reInIorce eucI oLIer. (BIomberg &
Hess, zooz. p. 8q) EconomIc decIIne Ius uIso been IInked wILI un Increuse In LIe IIkeIIIood oI
LerrorIsm (BIomberg, Hess, & Weerupunu, zooq), wIIcI Ius LIe cupucILy Lo spIII ucross borders und Ieud Lo
exLernuI LensIons. urLIermore, crIses generuIIy reduce LIe popuIurILy oI u sILLIng governmenL. "DIversIonury
LIeory" suggesLs LIuL, wIen IucIng unpopuIurILy urIsIng Irom economIc decIIne, sILLIng
governmenLs Iuve Increused IncenLIves Lo IubrIcuLe exLernuI mIIILury conIIIcLs Lo creuLe u 'ruIIy
uround LIe IIug' eIIecL. Wung (1qq6), DeRouen (1qq). und BIomberg, Hess, und TIucker (zoo6) IInd
supporLIng evIdence sIowIng LIuL economIc decIIne und use oI Iorce ure uL IeusL IndIrecLIy correIuLed. GeIpI (1qq;),
MIIIer (1qqq), und KIsungunI und PIckerIng (zooq) suggesL LIuL LIe Lendency Lowurds dIversIonury LucLIcs
ure greuLer Ior democruLIc sLuLes LIun uuLocruLIc sLuLes, due Lo LIe IucL LIuL democruLIc Ieuders ure generuIIy
more suscepLIbIe Lo beIng removed Irom oIIIce due Lo Iuck oI domesLIc supporL. DeRouen (zooo) Ius provIded
evIdence sIowIng LIuL perIods oI weuk economIc perIormunce In LIe UnILed SLuLes, und LIus weuk
PresIdenLIuI popuIurILy, ure sLuLIsLIcuIIy IInked Lo un Increuse In LIe use oI Iorce. n summury, recenL
economIc scIoIursIIp posILIveIy correIuLes economIc InLegruLIon wILI un Increuse In LIe Irequency oI economIc
crIses, wIereus poIILIcuI scIence scIoIursIIp IInks economIc decIIne wILI exLernuI conIIIcL uL
sysLemIc, dyudIc und nuLIonuI IeveIs. TIIs ImpIIed connecLIon beLween InLegruLIon, crIses und urmed
conIIIcL Ius noL IeuLured promInenLIy In LIe economIc-securILy debuLe und deserves more uLLenLIon.
Sturter Puck
16

Cooperution Good - Accidents[ ebris

{__) Cooperution key to redocing risk oI uccidents und spuce debris

AnoLIer reuson LIe USA Is In need oI cooperuLIon Ius someLIIng Lo do wILI LIe IucL LIuL ouLer
spuce Is u IIgIIy InLerdependenL domuIn. JusL us LIe murILIme domuIn Ius severuI mujor rouLes Ior
LrunsporLuLIon cuIIed LIe seu IInes oI communIcuLIon, IIgIwuys Ior suLeIIILes (e.g. EO und GEO) exIsL In
ouLer spuce.1z TIese ure sIured by uII spuceIurIng nuLIons und non-sLuLe ucLors, und ure
becomIng IncreusIngIy congesLed us suLeIIILes und spuce debrIs Increuse. n LIIs conLexL, LIe NSP
sLuLes LIe now-ubIquILous und InLerconnecLed nuLure oI spuce cupubIIILIes und LIe worId`s growIng
dependence on LIem meun LIuL IrresponsIbIe ucLs In spuce cun Iuve dumugIng consequences Ior
uII oI us. TIe NSP uIso numes LIe Increuse In LIe umounL oI spuce debrIs und LIe rIsks oI
suLeIIILe coIIIsIons us exumpIes oI cIuIIenges Ior LIe susLuInubIe use oI spuce. TIese descrIpLIons
ure no doubL InIIuenced by LIe resuILs oI Lwo IncIdenLs CIInu`s zoo; ASAT LesL und LIe zooq US-RussIu
suLeIIILe coIIIsIon wIIcI Iuve occurred sInce LIe IusL NSP wus reIeused In zoo6. TIese Lwo IncIdenLs Iuve
mude LIe cIuIIenges Lo LIe susLuInubIIILy oI LIe spuce envIronmenL more ImmInenL,
muILIpIyIng LIe number oI cuLuIogued EO spuce objecLs by more LIun 6o%.1

Sturter Puck
1,

Cooperution Good - Asiu

LS-Asiun spuce cooperution now - redocing risks oI uccidents und misculcolution

TIe Obumu udmInIsLruLIon Is LIus IndIcuLIng ILs wIIIIngness Lo cooperuLe und coIIuboruLe wILI AsIun
counLrIes In spuce. n LIe cuse oI Jupun, wIIcI Is u key US uIIy In AsIu und Ius uIreudy coIIuboruLed wILI IL on cIvII spuce
projecLs IIke LIe SS progrum, LIe USA Is now InLeresLed In pursuIng nuLIonuI securILy spuce cooperuLIon.
n November zooq PresIdenL Obumu und LIe LIen PrIme MInIsLer YukIo HuLoyumu ugreed Lo open dIscussIons on LIIs Issue us purL oI LIe
process Lo deepen LIe USeJupun uIIIunce.1q TIe USA Is uIso udvuncIng LIes In spuce wILI unoLIer regIonuI uIIy,
AusLruIIu. TIe Lwo counLrIes ure IuvIng consuILuLIons Lo deveIop u CIvII Spuce CooperuLIon rumework AgreemenL. n uddILIon,
mIIILury spuce coIIuboruLIons beLween LIese Lwo counLrIes ure progressIng. n AprII zo1o LIe Lwo Iorces
sIgned u Memorundum oI UndersLundIng Lo sIure UH-Irequency suLeIIILe cupucILy.1 n November zo1o, LIe IoreIgn und deIense mInIsLers oI
boLI counLrIes endorsed u JoInL SLuLemenL on Spuce SecurILy und sIgned u Spuce SILuuLIonuI Awureness PurLnersIIp SLuLemenL oI PrIncIpIes.16
Under LIIs purLnersIIp, boLI counLrIes ure Lo consIder LIe possIbIIILy oI esLubIIsIIng und operuLIng sensors In AusLruIIu Lo compIemenL US
spuce surveIIIunce cupubIIILIes In LIIs regIon. BesIdes coIIuboruLIon wILI ILs uIIIes In LIe regIon, LIe Obumu udmInIsLruLIon Is
seekIng Lo expund cooperuLIon wILI un emergIng spuce power, ndIu. n JuIy zooq boLI governmenLs sIgned
u TecInoIogy SuIeguurds AgreemenL wIIcI wus InLended Lo permIL LIe IuuncI oI cIvII or non-commercIuI suLeIIILes conLuInIng US componenLs
on ndIun spuce IuuncI veIIcIes.1; n November zooq PresIdenL Obumu und ndIun PrIme MInIsLer MunmoIun SIngI ugreed Lo
coIIuboruLe In LIe uppIIcuLIon oI LIeIr spuce LecInoIogy und reIuLed scIenLIIIc cupubIIILIes In
ouLer spuce und Ior deveIopmenL purposes.18 urLIermore, In November zo1o, boLI Ieuders ugreed Lo expund LIeIr
coIIuboruLIon In spuce.1q AccordIng Lo LIe ugreemenL, LIe Lwo counLrIes ure Lo IoId u JoInL CIvII Spuce WorkIng Group In zo11 Lo deveIop
cIoser LIes In spuce cooperuLIon und EurLI observuLIon. TIe Ieuders uIso ugreed Lo cooperuLe on LIe suIeLy und securILy oI spuce ucLIvILIes. OI
specIuI noLe Is LIe US decIsIon Lo remove uII ndIun cIvII spuce und deIense-reIuLed enLILIes Irom LIe DepurLmenL oI Commerce EnLILy IsL,
wIIcI InvoIves exporL IIcense requIremenLs. AccordIngIy, subordInuLes oI LIe ndIun Spuce ReseurcI OrgunIzuLIon (SRO) und LIe DeIense
ReseurcI und DeveIopmenL OrgunIzuLIon (DRDO) were removed Irom LIe IIsL In order Lo IucIIILuLe Lrude und cooperuLIon In cIvII spuce und
deIense.zo n IIs remurks Lo LIe ndIun purIIumenL PresIdenL Obumu sLuLed LIuL LIe removuI, uIong wILI LIe ongoIng reIorm oI LIe exporL
conLroI sysLem, wIII ensure LIuL ndIun compunIes seekIng IIgI-LecI Lrude und LecInoIogIes Irom AmerIcu ure LreuLed LIe sume us our very
cIosesL uIIIes und purLners.z1 TIe Obumu udmInIsLruLIon Is now LryIng Lo promoLe spuce cooperuLIon wILI CIInu.
n November zooq PresIdenL Obumu und CIInu`s PresIdenL, Hu JInLuo, ugreed Lo seek IurLIer dIscussIons on
spuce scIence cooperuLIon und Lo InILIuLe u dIuIogue on Iumun spuceIIIgIL und spuce
expIoruLIon.zz TIe Lwo Ieuders uIso weIcomed recIprocuI vIsILs oI LIe NASA udmInIsLruLor und IIs CIInese counLerpurL In zo1o. TIIs Ied
Lo un oIIIcIuI vIsIL Lo CIInu by NASA AdmInIsLruLor CIurIes BoIden In OcLober zo1o.z BoIden meL IIs counLerpurL, CIen QIuIu, Ieud oI LIe
CIInu NuLIonuI Spuce AdmInIsLruLIon und vIsILed CIInese Iumun spuceIIIgIL reIuLed IucIIILIes.zq n uddILIon, boLI presIdenLs sIured LIe vIew
LIuL LIe Lwo counLrIes Iuve common InLeresLs In LIe promoLIon oI LIe peuceIuI use oI spuce und ugreed Lo Luke sLeps Lo enIunce securILy In
spuce. n pursuunce oI LIIs LIe udmInIsLruLIon Is seekIng bIIuLeruI TCBMs wILI CIInu. n OcLober zo1o DeIense
SecreLury GuLes menLIoned LIe need Ior sLruLegIc dIuIogue, wIIcI IncIudes LIe Issue oI spuce securILy, In u meeLIng wILI CIInu`s DeIense
MInIsLer Iung GuungIIe.z TIus, In AsIu LIe USA Is deepenIng coIIuboruLIon wILI ILs uIIIes (Jupun und
AusLruIIu), expundIng cooperuLIon wILI ndIu, und deveIopIng bIIuLeruI TCBMs wILI CIInu. TIese
ure weIcome IndIcuLIons Ior AsIu. As AsIun counLrIes IncreusIngIy depend on LIe use oI spuce, IL Is
becomIng IndIspensubIe Ior LIem, Loo, Lo cooperuLe. By coIIuboruLIng wILI LIe IeudIng spuceIurIng nuLIon, AsIun
counLrIes wIII be ubIe Lo uccess cuLLIng-edge LecInoIogy und know-Iow, uL IeusL Lo some exLenL. AsIun counLrIes wIII uIso beneIIL
Irom LIe bIIuLeruI TCBMs beLween LIe USA und CIInu, conLrIbuLIng Lo LIe overuII suIeLy und
securILy oI ouLer spuce.

Sturter Puck
1S

Cooperution Good - Chinu

{__) Luck oI cooperution between the LS und Chinu risks instubility, increused
debris, und uttucks on spuce ussets

An ImporLunL mIssIng IInk Is LIe vIrLuuI ubsence oI spuce cooperuLIon beLween CIInu und LIe
UnILed SLuLes sInce LIe IuLe 1qqos. ndeed, conservuLIve mIIILury unuIysLs on boLI sIdes oI LIe PucIIIc ure
now cuIIIng Ior Increused oIIensIve und deIensIve mIIILury spuce cupubIIILIes, Iomenting
tensions und risking u LS-Chinese spuce urms ruce. Soch trends coold leud to
instubility, increused orbitul spuce debris, und possibly interIerence with or even
uttucks on euch other's spuce ussets. n LIe commercIuI reuIm, meunwIIIe, sLrIcL US exporL conLroIs
Iuve cuused CIInu Lo sIIIL ILs spuce ouLreucI Lo new purLners. BrILIsI Surrey SuLeIIILes, Ld, Ius buIIL und soId
smuII spucecruIL Lo CIInu. rencI AIcuLeI Ius begun Lo munuIucLure udvunced suLeIIILes (wILIouL US componenLs)
specIIIcuIIy Ior suIe Lo LIe growIng CIInese murkeL. or LIese und oLIer reusons, US-CIInese spuce cooperuLIon Is
now beIng ucLIveIy reussessed In WusIIngLon by LIe Obumu udmInIsLruLIon, buL cun LIese eIIorLs succeed?

Sturter Puck
1q

Cooperution Good - Spuce Progrum - Cost Redoction

Cooperution key to cost redoction

CosL moLIvuLIons ure LIe mosL ImporLunL ruLIonuIe gIven Ior cooperuLIon. Spuce endeuvors ure
very expensIve und ure LIus IIgIIy debuLed, especIuIIy LIe reLurns on InvesLmenL. nLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon oIIers LIe poLenLIuI Lo reduce LIe burden oI guInIng uccess Lo spuce by even LIe
pooresL oI nuLIons. L does LIIs by spreudIng LIe resource InvesLmenLs und expendILures umong
cooperuLIng nuLIons. Observers Iuve concIuded LIuL us per-purLner cosLs decreuse, LIe per-purLner
uLIIILy oI InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon Increuses.1 CooperuLIon reduces exposure by spreudIng LIe
rIsk oI IuIIure und uIIows u spuceIurIng sLuLe Lo druw In ouLsIde resources. TIIs Is especIuIIy
compeIIIng Ior nuLIons wIose resources ure InsuIIIcIenL Lo uLLuIn uny subsLunLIuI spuce operuLIonuI und LecInIcuI
gouIs. Even LIe weII-endowed ESA Ius enguged LIe USA und Jupun Lo joIn wIuL were prevIousIy LrudILIonuI
Europeun scIence mIssIons us u wuy Lo rescue ILs mIssIon porLIoIIo Irom Increused cosL-growLI.16 SImIIurIy,
CIundruuyun, ndIu`s IIrsL suLeIIILe Lo LIe Moon, wus IuuncIed In zoo8 curryIng Lwo prImury InsLrumenLs Lo IeIp
IocuLe wuLer und oLIer resources. TIe USA conLrIbuLed LIese Lo LIe mIssIon. TIey cosL more LIun LIe umounL
ndIu spenL buIIdIng und InLegruLIng LIe buIunce oI LIe spucecruIL und LIe IuuncI veIIcIe. nLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon oIIers LIe opporLunILy Lo Improve LIe eIIIcucy oI LIe expendILures. Resources cun
be ruLIonuIIzed, sLundurdIzed, und mude InLeroperubIe Lo brIng ubouL LIe besL und mosL
eIIIcIenL use oI reseurcI, deveIopmenL, procuremenL, supporL, und producLIon resources. TIIs
IosLers eIIecLIve operuLIons. So II u IypoLIeLIcuI spuce purLnersIIp InvoIves Lwo nuLIons, one
wILI sopIIsLIcuLed remoLe sensIng engIneerIng cupubIIILIes, und LIe oLIer, spuceIIIL, u ruLIonuI
upproucI wouId uIIocuLe progrum ucLIvILIes In uccord wILI LIese sLrengLIs. nLernuLIonuI
cooperuLIon cun provIde u sLrong und essenLIuI beneIIL by provIdIng progrummuLIc redunduncy,
us Iuppened wIen RussIun Soyuz cruIL were ubIe Lo provIde LrunsporLuLIon Lo LIe SS IoIIowIng LIe Ioss oI LIe
SIuLLIe CIuIIenger. SLundurdIzuLIon oI Iurdwure, soILwure, procedures, und LIe IIke IeIps Lo ucIIeve u cIoser
prucLIcuI cooperuLIon umong purLners. L does LIIs LIrougI un eIIIcIenL use oI resources und reducLIon oI
operuLIonuI, IogIsLIc, communIcuLIons, LecInIcuI, und proceduruI obsLucIes. L Is LeIIIng LIuL InLernuLIonuI
purLnersIIps usuuIIy begIn LIeIr eIIorLs by sLundurdIzIng udmInIsLruLIve, IogIsLIc, und operuLIonuI procedures.
OrIgInuLors oI sLundurdIzIng sysLems und procedures oILen become LIe de IucLo Ieuders oI coIIuboruLIve eIIorLs.
InuIIy und cIoseIy reIuLed Lo sLundurdIzuLIon, InLeroperubIIILy Is essenLIuI. DesIgnIng Ior
progrummuLIc redunduncy provIdes u sLrong urgumenL Ior InLeroperubIIILy beLween nuLIons`
spuce expIoruLIon usseLs, us LIIs wouId uIIow nuLIons Lo subsLILuLe eucI oLIer`s crILIcuI
cupubIIILIes wILI reIuLIve euse.1; NuLIons wIose spuce sysLems ure InLeroperubIe cun operuLe
LogeLIer more eIIecLIveIy. DesIgnIng Ior InLeroperubIIILy enubIes LIem Lo subsLILuLe eucI oLIer`s crILIcuI
cupubIIILIes wILI reIuLIve euse,18 und provIdes mucI needed redunduncy In LIe evenL one nuLIon cunnoL suppIy u
key servIce or componenL Ior uny number oI reusons. Spuce progrums cun ose the importunt
cupubilities provided by rutionulizution, stundurdizution und interoperubility to:
commonicute; eIIiciently integrute und synchronize operutions; enuble dutu und
inIormution exchunges; shure consomubles und resoorces; enhunce eIIectiveness
by optimizing individoul und combined cupubilities oI eqoipment; increuse
eIIiciency throogh common or computible sopport und systems; und ussore
technicul computibility by developing stundurds Ior eqoipment design,
employment, muintenunce, und opduting them. WILI ruLIonuIIzuLIon, sLundurdIzuLIon, und
InLeroperubIIILy, nuLIons LIuL ure IIkeIy Lo joIn u purLnersIIp cun properIy prepure Lo perIorm LIeIr responsIbIIILIes.

Sturter Puck
o

Cooperution Bud

Sturter Puck
1

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Spuce Primucy

{__) Cooperution with Chinu over spuce Iucilitutes espionuge - threutens the LS
spuce progrum und spuce primucy
Sterner - Iellow @ the George C. Murshull Institote, held senior stuII positions with the Hoose
Armed Services und Science Committee - q
Iric, LS-Chinu spuce relutions: muintuining un urm's length', Spuce News, { Murch ooq), p. 1q.
L Is LempLIng Lo IoId ouL spuce purLnersIIp us u LooI Lo InIIuence LIe brouder U.S.-PRC
reIuLIonsIIp. n purLIcuIur, LIose wIo vIew spuce us u meuns oI InIIuencIng LerresLrIuI poIILIcs wIII pusI Ior u purLnersIIp. By IeurnIng Lo
IIve und work LogeLIer In spuce, we cun beLLer IIve und work LogeLIer on EurLI, or so LIe LIeory goes. BuL, sucI un upproucI IuIIs Lo
grusp LIe nuLure oI InLernuLIonuI poIILIcs, In wIIcI spuce poII- cy Is u LooI oI brouder gouIs, und
noL LIe oLIer wuy uround. As u resuIL, LIe broud U.S.-PRC reIuLIonsIIp wIII uIIecL Iow LIe Lwo
counLrIes InLerucL wILI one unoLIer In spuce, und noL vIce versu.
n LIuL conLexL, IL mukes IILLIe sense Lo seek u spuce purLnersIIp wILI CIInu. TIe bIIuLeruI
reIuLIonsIIp Is sImpIy Loo unseLLIed wILI Loo muny poLenLIuI IIusIpoInLs, rungIng Irom TuIwun
und Iumun rIgILs Lo Iubor prucLIces und currency munIpuIuLIon. TIus, u spuce purLnersIIp wouId
onIy ImporL uII oI LIe burdens oI LIe brouder geopoIILIcuI reIuLIonsIIp InLo LIe spuce progrum,
wILIouL necessurIIy beneIILIng LIe progrum In u meunIngIuI wuy. n- sLeud, sopIIsLIcuLed,
muILIyeur cooperuLIve projecLs wouId be uL rIsk wIen CIInese beIuvIor on Iumun rIgILs, Lowurd ILs neIgIbors, In
currency munIpuIuLIon, or In proIIIeruLIng dungerous LecInoIogIes cIusI wILI AmerIcun vuIues, IdeuIs or InLeresLs. SImIIurIy, Beijing
muy coonter L.S. moves to preserve u strutegic bulunce in Asiu by imposing
conseqoences on uny biluterul spuce project, essentiully holding Americun spuce
interests hostuge to brouder issoes.
Any poLenLIuI purLnersIIp wILI CIInu uIso ruIses more specIIIc concerns. CIInese espIonuge
ucLIvILIes uguInsL IIgILecI AmerIcun LurgeLs ure weII documenLed.
MIcIeIIe Vun CIeuve, LIe nuLIon's IIrsL nuLIonuI coordInuLor Ior counLerInLeIIIgence, recenLIy noLed: "TIe CIInese
sLoIe LIe desIgn secreLs Lo uII - repeuL, uII - U.S. nucIeur weupons, enubIIng LIem Lo IeupIrog generuLIons oI
LecInoIogy deveIopmenL und puL our nucIeur ursenuI, LIe counLry's IusL IIne oI deIense, uL rIsk. To LIIs duy, we
don'L know quILe wIen or Iow LIey dId IL, buL we do know LIuL CIInese InLeIIIgence operuLIves ure sLIII uL work,
sysLemuLIcuIIy LurgeLIng noL onIy AmerIcu's deIense secreLs buL our IndusLrIes' vuIuubIe proprIeLury InIormuLIon."
UnIorLunuLeIy, NASA Is u soIL LurgeL compured wILI LIe nuLIon's nucIeur Iubs. TIe U.S. CIInu
EconomIc und SecurILy RevIew CommIssIon's mosL recenL reporL noLed LIuL In zoo CIInese
Iuckers LurgeLed NASA und sLoIe IIIes on spucecruIL propuIsIon, soIur puneIs und IueI Lunks -
uII useIuI Ior mIIILury sysLems. More recenLIy, u conLrucL engIneer wus IndIcLed IusL yeur Ior sLeuIIng
LecInoIogIes ussocIuLed wILI LIe spuce sIuLLIe und DeILu q IuuncI veIIcIe on beIuII oI LIe
PeopIe's RepubIIc oI CIInu. A close purtnership woold only increuse the potentiul Ior
greuter technology trunsIer, to the net hurm oI the nutionul secority interests oI
the Lnited Stutes.
InuIIy, consIder LIe symboIIsm oI u purLnersIIp wILI CIInu In spuce. SInce ILs IncepLIon, LIe cIvII
spuce progrum Ius served us u geopoIILIcuI meLupIor. U.S. PresIdenLs DwIgIL EIsenIower und JoIn . Kennedy
InLended Lo send geopoIILIcuI messuges In creuLIng NASA und IuuncIIng us Lo LIe Moon. SImIIurIy, PresIdenL RonuId Reugun's udmInIsLruLIon
conceIved oI LIe InLernuLIonuI spuce sLuLIon us u demonsLruLIon oI LIe unILy und LecInIcuI prowess oI LIe wesLern democrucIes In conLrusL Lo
SovIeL uuLIorILurIunIsm. WIen RussIuns overLIrew communIsm und joIned LIe IumIIy oI democruLIc nuLIons, LIey were weIcomed InLo LIe
progrum, IurLIer symboIIzIng LIeIr cIunged sLuLus. PurLnersIIp wILI CIInu wouId send LIe sIgnuI LIuL vuIues
IeId by LIe WesL, sucI us represenLuLIve governmenL, IndIvIduuI IIberLy, LIe ruIe oI Iuw und
respecL Ior Iumun rIgILs - wIIcI LIe Ieuders oI LIe PeopIe's RepubIIc oI CIInu do noL sIure -
ure no Ionger us ImporLunL Lo LIe reIuLIonsIIp.
Sturter Puck

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Hegemony

{__) Spuce cooperution destroys hegemony
Cheng - Reseurch Iellow in Chinese Politicul und Secority AIIuirs in the Asiun Stodies Center ut
The Herituge Ioondution - q
eun, L.S.-Chinu Spuce Cooperution: More Costs Thun BeneIits,
http:[[www.herituge.org[Reseurch[Reports[ooq[1o[LS-Chinu-Spuce-Cooperution-More-Costs-
Thun-BeneIits?qoery=L.S.-Chinu+Spuce+Cooperution:+More+Costs+Thun+BeneIits

Beyond LIe LecInIcuI Issues, Iowever, LIere ure more IundumenLuI poIILIcuI concerns LIuL musL be uddressed. TIe
U.S. mIIILury depends on spuce us u sLruLegIc IIgI ground. Spuce LecInoIogy Is uIso duuI-use In
nuLure: AImosL uny LecInoIogy or InIormuLIon LIuL Is excIunged In u cooperuLIve venLure Is
IIkeIy Lo Iuve mIIILury uLIIILy. SIurIng sucI InIormuLIon wILI CIInu, LIereIore, wouId undercuL
AmerIcun LucLIcuI und LecInoIogIcuI mIIILury udvunLuges.

Sturter Puck

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Militurizution

Spuce co op with Chinu goes nowhere und uccelerutes militurizution
Chung Colomnist Iorbes 11-6
{Gordon G.-, Iorbes, "The Spuce Arms Ruce Begins: Shoold the L.S. und Chinu cooperute?,
http:[[www.Iorbes.com[
ooq[11[og[spuce-urms-ruce-chinu-onited-stutes-opinions-colomnists-gordon-g-chung.html)

n response Lo Obumu's counLermove, BeIjIng--or uL IeusL LIe PeopIe's IberuLIon Army--Ius now cIunged Luck
und unnounced ILs InLenLIon Lo begIn LIe spuce urms ruce In eurnesL. GeneruI Xu's boId words, InLeresLIngIy
enougI, come uL LIe sume LIme LIuL some In WusIIngLon ure cuIIIng Ior cIvIIIun cooperuLIon wILI LIe CIInese In
spuce. And wIy wouId we do LIuL? TIe U.S. sIuLLIe IIeeL wIII be reLIred nexL yeur. Ls repIucemenL, LIe OrIon Crew
ExpIoruLIon VeIIcIe, Is noL sIuLed Lo muke ILs IIrsL crewed IIIgIL unLII zo1, und IL muy noL IIy unLII weII uILer LIuL.
n LIe InLerIm, NASA InLends Lo reIy on RussIun IuuncI veIIcIes Lo geL AmerIcuns InLo orbIL. TIe UnILed SLuLes,
LIereIore, wIII be uL LIe compIeLe mercy oI Moscow wIen LIe IusL sIuLLIe Is grounded--unIess we ure wIIIIng Lo
IILcIIIke wILI LIe onIy oLIer nuLIon LIuL wIII be ubIe Lo puL u Iumun InLo spuce LIen. " LIInk IL's possIbIe In
prIncIpIe Lo deveIop LIe requIred degree oI conIIdence In LIe CIInese," suId JoIn HoIdren, PresIdenL Obumu's
scIence udvIsor, In AprII. And Ie Is noL uIone In LIIs vIew. AccordIng Lo LIe jusL-reIeused reporL oI LIe RevIew oI
U.S. Humun SpuceIIIgIL PIuns CommILLee, beLLer known us LIe AugusLIne reporL, "CIInu oIIers sIgnIIIcunL
poLenLIuI In u spuce purLnersIIp." n one sense, LIIs sLuLemenL Is correcL. AILer uII, CIInu Ius puL u mun InLo spuce
LIree LImes. Moreover, LIe CIInese Iuve suId on numerous occusIons LIuL LIey ure prepured Lo work wILI us. So
wIuL Is LIe probIem wILI doIng so? IrsL, even LIougI LIe UnILed SLuLes wIII soon IInd ILseII wILIouL u
wuy Lo puL Iumuns InLo orbIL, uny purLnersIIp wouId essenLIuIIy be u one-wuy LrunsIer oI
LecInoIogy Irom us Lo LIe CIInese. Second, LIe CIInese dId noL respond IuvorubIy Lo pusL
AmerIcun eIIorLs--mude durIng LIe udmInIsLruLIon oI George W. BusI--Lo InvoIve LIem In
cooperuLIve spuce eIIorLs. TIIrd, LIere Is no sucI LIIng us u cIvIIIun spuce progrum In CIInu. TIe
CIInu NuLIonuI Spuce AdmInIsLruLIon Is reuIIy u mIIILury operuLIon. TIereIore, we Iuve Lo usk
ourseIves u quesLIon: SIouId we LrunsIer LecInoIogy Lo u poLenLIuI udversury so LIuL IL cun
Improve ILs wur-IIgILIng cupubIIILIes? GeneruI KevIn CIIILon, LIe cIIeI oI LIe U.S. SLruLegIc Commund,
cuIIed Ior u dIuIogue wILI IIs CIInese counLerpurLs LIe duy uILer GeneruI Xu's spuce-ruce decIuruLIon. "WIere
LIey're IeudIng Is one oI LIe LIIngs u IoL oI peopIe wouId IIke Lo undersLund beLLer," CIIILon suId.

Sturter Puck
q

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Ispionuge

{__) Cooperution Iuils und risks Chinese espionuge
CSIS 1o
Chinese Spuce Policy: Colluborution or Competition?, http:[[csis.org[blog[chinese-spuce-policy-
colluborution-or-competition

n uddILIon Lo LIese progrums, CIInu Is u purLy Lo LIe AsIu-PucIIIc Spuce CooperuLIon OrgunIzuLIon (APSCO).
HeudquurLered In BeIjIng, LIe orgunIzuLIon IormuIIy sLurLed In December zoo1. TIe members oI LIe orgunIzuLIon
Iuve pIedged Lo cooperuLe on muLLers oI spuce expIoruLIon. APSCO consIsLs oI seven members: CIInu, BungIudesI,
run, MongoIIu, PukIsLun, Peru und TIuIIund wILI ndonesIu und Turkey us uddILIonuI sIgnuLorIes. Some eIIorLs
uL InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon Iuve resuILed In IuIIure. CIInu wus essenLIuIIy dIsInvILed Irom LIe
Europeun GuIIIeo progrum, wIIcI wus desIgned Lo creuLe u gIobuI IocuLIng und LruckIng sysLem
sImIIur Lo GPS In LIe U.S.. CIInu Ius now decIded Lo creuLe ILs own gIobuI IocuLIon suLeIIILe
sysLem, numed BeIdou. And wIIIe CIInu does coIIuboruLe wILI RussIu, ILs reIuLIonsIIp wILI RussIu Ius been
descrIbed us unemIc und deIuyed by some observers. TIere Ius been IILLIe coIIuboruLIon beLween LIe
US und CIInu on spuce expIoruLIon. ndeed, LIe sILuuLIon Ius been Lense uL LImes. Some oI CIInu`s
spuce LecInoIogy wus sLoIen Irom US IIrms. or exumpIe, u Iormer engIneer uL BoeIng, DongIun
CIung, wus convIcLed In JuIy zooq oI economIc espIonuge on beIuII oI CIInu. He provIded
InIormuLIon ubouL LIe spuce sIuLLIe und IueIIng sysLem oI LIe DeILu V boosLer rockeL. urLIermore, LIe US Ius
IIsLorIcuIIy dIsupproved oI CIInese ueronuuLIcuI IIrms seIIIng mIssIIe LecInoIogy Lo counLrIes
IIke run, NorLI Koreu und PukIsLun. On LIe oLIer Iund, CIInu resenLed u pIun proposed by LIe US
deIeguLIon uL LIe CopenIugen cIImuLe LuIks In December zooq, wIere IoreIgn suLeIIILes wouId
be used Lo monILor und verIIy curbon dIoxIde emIssIons In CIInu. TIe CIInese urgue LIuL LIIs
wouId be un InIrIngemenL upon LIeIr nuLIonuI sovereIgnLy.

Sturter Puck
g

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Lndermines Spuce Ops

{__) Chinu is too Iur behind the LS in spuce tech - cooperution woold ondermine
eIIective LS spuce missions

TIe Ideu oI reIyIng on CIInese cooperuLIon gIosses over very reuI probIems. AL u mInImum, IL Is un
open quesLIon wIeLIer LIe PRC Is cupubIe oI provIdIng subsLunLIuI supporL Lo LIe nLernuLIonuI
Spuce SLuLIon (SS) In LIe LImeIrumes dIscussed by LIe reporL. L Is ImporLunL Lo recuII LIuL LIe PRC Ius Iud
onIy LIree munned mIssIons und Ius never underLuken u munned dockIng muneuver. WouId
LIe U.S. und ILs purLners be comIorLubIe InvILIng u neopIyLe CIInese crew Lo dock wILI LIe SS?

Sturter Puck
6

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Chinese Growth {1[)

{__) Spuce cooperution cuoses Chinese growth

Moreover, BeIjIng Is IIkeIy Lo exLrucL u prIce In excIunge Ior sucI cooperuLIon. TIe CIInese
IeudersIIp Ius pIuced u consIsLenL empIusIs on deveIopIng ILs spuce cupubIIILIes IndIgenousIy.
NoL onIy does LIIs ensure LIuL CIInu's spuce cupubIIILIes ure noL IeId IosLuge Lo IoreIgn
pressure, buL IL uIso IosLers domesLIc economIc deveIopmenL -- LIereby promoLIng InnovuLIon
wILIIn CIInu's scIenLIIIc und LecInoIogIcuI communILIes -- und underscores LIe poIILIcuI
IegILImucy oI LIe CIInese CommunIsL PurLy. ConsequenLIy, LIe PRC wIII requIre LIuL uny
cooperuLIon wILI LIe U.S. provIdes IL wILI subsLunLIuI beneIILs LIuL wouId buIunce opporLunILy
cosLs In LIese ureus.

Chinese economic growth Ioels chinese nutionulism
Curl S. Morphy, Lieotenunt Communder, Lnited Stutes Nuvy, 1qq,
{http:[[www.globulsecority.org[militury[librury[report[1qq,[Morphy.htm)

CIInu's new prosperILy Ius conLrIbuLed Lo un unprecedenLed expunsIon oI LIe economy und
ImprovemenL In LIe IIIesLyIe oI LIe uveruge CIInese. ncreused economIc sLrengLI Ius brougIL
ubouL Increused prIde In CIInu's IIsLorIcuI ImporLunce und IuLure power. ResurgenL prIde Is
IueIIng nuLIonuIIsm und cuIIs Ior LIe resLoruLIon oI CIInu Lo u greuLness prevIousIy denIed by WesLern
ImperIuIIsm und Jupunese InvusIon. EconomIc growLI Ius uIso provIded TIe PRC wILI IncreusIng
resources wILI wIIcI Lo expIoIL opporLunILIes Ior greuLer power und InIIuence, IncIudIng
mIIILury modernIzuLIon. GrowLI und ILs eIIecL on nuLIonuIIsm Iuve uIso buIIL popuIur
expecLuLIons Ior CIInu's conLInued domesLIc ImprovemenL. I noL suLIsIIed, LIese expecLuLIons couId generuLe
Increused dIssuLIsIucLIon. One meuns Lo deIIecL unger In sucI u cuse wouId be Lo druw on nuLIonuIIsm und vIIIIy un exLernuI LurgeL IIke LIe
UnILed SLuLes or TuIwun; dIsLrucLIng domesLIc dIsconLenL.
CIInu's Ieuders Iuve cIosen un emoLIonuIIy cIurged nuLIonuIIsLIc gouI Lo provIde u unIIyIng
vIsIon Ior LIe purLy und peopIe uIIke: TIe resLoruLIon oI CIInu Lo ILs pre-OpIum Wur boundurIes und resumpLIon oI ILs
rIgILIuI pIuce us "u greuL nuLIon." Observers In LIe WesL oILen dIscounL LIe IIngerIng bILLerness wILI wIIcI LIe CIInese peopIe regurd over one
Iundred yeurs oI subjuguLIon by ouLsIde, und predomInuLeIy WesLern powers IoIIowIng LIe OpIum Wurs In LIe mId-18oo's. CIInu's
resenLmenL oI WesLern ImperIuIIsm Is exceeded onIy by LIe weII pubIIcIzed runcor wIIcI remuIns us u resuIL oI Jupun's InvusIon oI CIInu
durIng LIe Second WorId Wur. As u resuIL, LIe IeudersIIp In BeIjIng Ius emburked on u sLruLegy Lo
resLore IdeuIIzed LerrILorIuI boundurIes beIIeved Lo exIsL prIor Lo CIInu's IumIIIuLIng Ioss oI
sovereIgnLy uL wesLern Iunds, concurrenL wILI u mIIILury rejuvenuLIon progrum. TIe regIme's pIun cun
be seen us u progrum Lo buIId u "rIcI counLry und sLrong urmy Lo guurunLee LIuL CIInu wIII never uguIn Iuce sImIIur LreuLmenL." TIe "cenLury oI
IumIIIuLIon" Ius embedded In CIInese poIILIcuI LIInkIng u concepL oI ubsoIuLe sLuLe sovereIgnLy duLIng Irom LIe 1qLI cenLury; u zero-sum
compeLILIon beLween nuLIons In wIIcI one nuLIon's guIn musL meun LIe oLIer's Ioss. HumIIIuLIon by empIre buIIdIng ouLsIders Ius LuugIL
CIInu Lwo Iessons: power poIILIcs ure uII ImporLunL In InLernuLIonuI reIuLIons und CIInu wIII noL receIve LIe respecL due u greuL nuLIon wILIouL
mIIILury power. n un uddress Lo LIe NuLIonuI PeopIe's Congress In Junuury oI 1qq, JIung ZemIn, CIInese PresIdenL und IeIr-uppurenL Lo
Deng XIuopIng, urLIcuIuLed CIInu's overurcIIng drIve Lowurd repossessIon oI IIsLorIcuI LerrILorIes und resumpLIon oI greuLness us IoIIows: L
remuIns LIe sucred mIssIon und IoILy gouI oI LIe enLIre CIInese peopIe Lo ucIIeve LIe reunIIIcuLIon oI LIe moLIerIund und promoLe LIe uII-
round revILuIIzuLIon oI LIe CIInese nuLIon.

Sturter Puck
,

Cooperution Bud - Chinu - Chinese Growth {[)

Nutionulism mukes invusion oI Tuiwun und the Sprutleys inevituble
Curl S. Morphy, Lieotenunt Communder, Lnited Stutes Nuvy, 1qq,
{http:[[www.globulsecority.org[militury[librury[report[1qq,[Morphy.htm)

CIInese nuLIonuIIsm buIIds on Muo's "One CIInu PoIIcy" In LIe InLeresL oI reLurnIng TuIwun Lo
muInIund conLroI--by uny meuns--peuceIuI or IorceIuI. TIe "RejuvenuLIng CIInese GreuLness"
LIeme Ius uIso been used Lo supporL CIInu's cIuIms Lo sovereIgnLy over LIe poLenLIuIIy oII rIcI
SpruLIy, PuruceI und Senkuku IsIund groups. TIese cIuIms Iuve pIuced CIInu In dIspuLe In
recenL yeurs wILI ndonesIu, VIeLnum, LIe PIIIIppInes, TuIwun und Jupun. WIIIe LIIs muy reIIecL
CIInu's reuIIzuLIon LIuL IL Ius become u neL ImporLer oI crude oII, IL Is more pIuusIbIe LIuL LIese IrredenLIsL cIuIms
reIIecL boLI u growIng sense oI CIInu's ImporLunce In LIe AsIun-PucIIIc und u more prugmuLIc undersLundIng LIuL
CIInu's uscenL Lo economIc superpower sLuLus wIII depend on reIIubIe energy suppIIes, domesLIc
sLubIIILy, und posILIve economIc growLI. L Is esLImuLed LIuL CIInu wIII need Lo ImporL 1oo mIIIIon Lons oI
crude oII unnuuIIy by zo1o unIess IL IInds new sources. WIIIe obLuInIng sovereIgnLy over LerrILorIes beIIeved Lo
conLuIn sIgnIIIcunL peLroIeum reserves LIes InLo un economIc sLruLegy oI securIng LIe meuns oI economIc
producLIon, nuLIonuIIsm provIdes LIe meuns oI buIIdIng domesLIc IegILImucy Ior conIIIcL over
LIese LerrILorIes und u rIeLorIcuI busIs Ior dIscussIon In LIe InLernuLIonuI Iorum. As un up-und-
comIng nuvuI power, CIInu's provocuLIve LerrILorIuI cIuIms In LIe SouLI CIInu Seu Iuve uIso druwn uLLenLIon Lo LIe
geo-poIILIcuI und geo-economIc ImporLunce oI LIe predomInuLeIy murILIme AsIun-PucIIIc LIeuLer.
Ixtinction
Kennedy & Irie 'oo
{ProI. Puol-, ProI. Akiru-, uily Yomiori, Jun. 1o, "1st Centory--iulogoes on the Iotore[
Globulizution's swuy in evolotion oI stutes pot in Iocos, Lexis)

Kennedy: Over LIe pusL Lwo or LIree decudes, muny AsIun nuLIons Iuve Increused LIeIr deIense
budgeLs, wIIIe Europeun counLrIes Iuve done oLIerwIse. DurIng LIIs LIme, LIere Iuve been muny IIusI
poInLs In AsIu, sucI NorLI Koreu, TuIwun und KusImIr. Some AsIun counLrIes Iuve deveIoped
nucIeur weupons, us conLrusLed wILI Iew Europeuns wIo even wunL nucIeur power sLuLIons Loduy.
We Iuve good reuson Lo IeeI worrIed LIuL AsIu couId become u LInderbox sIouId LIere be uny conIIIcL
In dIspuLed LerrILorIes IIke LIe SpruLIy sIunds und un uuLIsLIc NorLI Koreun regIme LIuL does
noL boLIer Lo undersLund LIe ouLsIde worId. TuIwun Is oILen rusI Lo provoke BeIjIng, wIIIe LIe
KusImIr conIIIcL couId grow InLo un ndIu-PukIsLun wur.
TIere Is greuL concern ubouL Iow we sIouId ensure LIuL bILLer rIvuIrIes In LIe AsIun purL oI LIe gIobe wIII
noL brIng down u sysLem LIuL Is emergIng In LIe worId now. We do noL wunL u repeuL oI 1q1q.
um concerned LIuL un urmed conIIIcL mIgIL urIse In SouLI or EusL AsIu In zoo8, Ior exumpIe,
und brIng down LIe credIL, IInuncIuI IIow und cupILuI In LIe regIon.
rIe: sIure ProI. Kennedy's sense oI pessImIsm ubouL some serIous probIems IucIng LIe worId Loduy. TIere ure
muny more sovereIgn nuLIons Loduy, und LIe mujorILy oI LIem ure newIy IndependenL sLuLes. TIereIore, LIey ure
even more nuLIonuIIsLIc.
NuLIonuIIsm Ius oILen served us LIe onIy symboI oI nuLIonuI unILy Ior some AIrIcun, AsIun und MIddIe EusLern
counLrIes LIuL Iuve been gruLed In LIeIr regIons wILIouL nuLIonuI LrudILIons compurubIe Lo LIose oI Europeun
counLrIes. TIIs Ius mude muLLers even worse. NuLIonuIIsm Is uII LIuL cun keep u counLry LogeLIer. L Is essenLIuI
Lo ensure LIuL IocuI conIIIcLs wIII be kepL Irom bIowIng up LIe enLIre worId.

Sturter Puck
S

AT Cooperution Good - Cost Redoction

{__) Cooperution doesn't suve money - Internutionul Spuce Stution proves

nLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon eIIorLs ure oILen secured onIy uL u Lremendous expense. TIe SS cun be
consIdered u sLunnIng meIdIng oI InLernuLIonuI poIILIcs, LecInoIogy, und cooperuLIon, wIose reseurcI cupubIIILIes
und beneIILs Iuve been mucI LrumpeLed. However, LIe SS Ius Lurned ouL Lo be u very expensIve
oIIerIng on LIe uILur oI InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon. BIIIIons oI doIIurs Iuve been squundered In
order Lo consLrucL, suppIy, und operuLe IL. Ls success Ius been Iorged onIy Lo LIe deLrImenL oI
oLIer mucI more scIenLIIIcuIIy producLIve projecLs sucI us roboLIc spucecruIL mIssIons und
IILLIe scIenLIIIc reseurcI on IL Ius been pIunned und execuLed.zq TIere ure uIso LecInIcuI
deIIcIencIes In LIe SS desIgn LIuL IImIL ILs uLIIILy, IncIudIng ILs need Ior IIgI IeveIs oI
muInLenunce Lo be currIed ouL by LIe crew, uccompIIsIed vIu recurrIng und rIsky exLru-
veIIcuIur ucLIvILIes. TIe IIgI IncIInuLIon oI LIe sLuLIon`s orbIL uIso Ieuds Lo u IIgIer cosL Ior US-
bused Spuce SIuLLIe IuuncIes Lo LIe sLuLIon.o

Sturter Puck
q

Cooperution eIense

Sturter Puck
o

Cooperution Iuils - Protectionism

{__) Cooperution Iuils - spuce progrums overwhelmingly protectionist

nLernuLIonuI cIvII spuce cooperuLIon Is udmIred us u IoILy und worLIy gouI, buL spuce progrum munugers conIronL
u Iur dIIIerenL reuIILy Irom LIe dIpIomuLs us LIey dIrecL sucI eIIorLs us descrIbed In TubIe z. Hopes Ior
cooperuLIon cun soon be overwIeImed by compeLIng InLeresLs und prIorILIes, und uIso by
reduced or consLruIned budgeLs. TIese unLI-coIIuboruLIve beIuvIors ure demonsLruLed In LIe
recenL rusI oI Iunur IIIgILs, wIIcI Iuve seen IIve dIIIerenL spucecruIL senL Lo LIe moon by LIe
USA, ESA, CIInu, Jupun und ndIu; eucI mIssIon essenLIuIIy perIormIng LIe sume busIc scIence
mIssIons.8 ExpendILures Ior LIese repeLILIve eIIorLs LoLuIed beLween $z und bIIIIon doIIurs. More usLoundIng,
scIenLIIIc duLu Irom severuI oI LIe mIssIons Iuve noL been sIured. Were LIese jusL expensIve sLunLs or
mereIy IosL opporLunILIes? PerIups beLLer scIence und expIoruLIon couId Iuve been ucIIeved II LIese ucLIvILIes Iud
been consoIIduLed InLo u sIngIe mIssIon, wILI LIe excess Iunds spenL on oLIer scIenLIIIc objecLIves. Now IL seems
LIe SouLI Koreuns, BruzIIIuns, runIuns, und oLIers wunL Lo IuuncI LIeIr own Moon mIssIons; LIeIr ruLIonuIe
druped In LIe words oI greuL LrIbuI puLrIoLs und uccompunIed by LIe besL expressIons oI nuLIonuI prIde. SImIIurIy
LIe InLernuLIonuI IuuncI murkeL Is weII over cupucILy Ior IuuncIIng LIe currenL und IoreseeubIe
demund Ior communIcuLIons, remoLe sensIng und nuvIguLIon suLeIIILes. EIgIL dIIIerenL
counLrIes conLInue Lo subsIdIze LIeIr own IuuncI cupubIIILy und oLIer nuLIons ure deveIopIng
LIeIr own IuuncIers. TIe USA proIIbILs US cIvII und commercIuI spucecruIL Irom IuuncIIng on
CIInese veIIcIes. ESA demunds LIuL Europeun suLeIIILes be IuuncIed on ArIune. TIese dIrecLIons
ure drIven by ImporLunL nuLIonuI or regIonuI InLeresLs. However, LIere muybe no eusy wuy Lo IosLer
Improved InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon II sucI proLecLIonIsL beIuvIors sLund In LIe wuy. And LIere
ure IurLIer obsLucIes Lo cooperuLIon.

Sturter Puck
1

Cooperution Iuils - Luondry List 1[

{__) Cooperution Iuils - inIormution usymmetries, luck oI binding ugreements
Some suggesL LIe USA Is un unreIIubIe purLner becuuse ILs poIILIcuI processes und LrudILIon oI
bIennIuI und quudrennIuI eIecLIons brIng uncerLuInLy Lo InLernuLIonuI ugreemenLs. or exumpIe,
In zooq PresIdenL George W. BusI unveIIed IIs VIsIon Ior Spuce ExpIoruLIon wIIcI puL u neur-Lerm
empIusIs on reLurnIng Iumuns Lo LIe Moon. nLernuLIonuI purLners, especIuIIy In Europe dId noL ImmedIuLeIy
embruce LIIs poIIcy becuuse LIey were more InLeresLed In perIormIng Murs mIssIons. However, uILer Iour yeurs
oI InLernuLIonuI worksIops, bIIuLeruI meeLIngs, LIen InLense IecLorIng und IuggIIng, u coIIecLIve gIobuI
vIsIon wus Iorged wILI prospecLIve purLners, especIuIIy ESA. TIe new gIobuI vIsIon ouLIIned
ImporLunL roIes Ior LIe purLners Lo reLurn Lo LIe Moon und reInvIgoruLe Iunur expIoruLIon. ESA worked Lo cujoIe ILs
members Lo progrum Iunds Lo supporL LIe VIsIon. TIen, jusL us ESA wus unnouncIng LIuL ILs
membersIIp Iud syncIed ILs pIunnIng und progrummIng roudmup Lo muLcI LIe VIsIon`s, LIe
USA, Ied by u newIy eIecLed InLernuLIonuIIsL presIdenL, unnounced InLeresL In u rudIcuIIy
dIIIerenL pIun, LIuL recenLIy IdenLIIIed by LIe AugusLIne commILLee. TIe USA Is no wIn LIe process oI
ubundonIng LIe VIsIon`s Iunur buse concepL und movIng Lo u IIexIbIe puLI Lo munned spuce expIoruLIon. TIe
cIunge Ius devusLuLed LIe ESA purLners. SImIIurIy, ubouL-Lurns und dIIIIcuILIes Iuve been experIenced
In coIIuboruLIve work on RussIun rockeL engInes IoIIowIng LIe coIIupse oI LIe USSR. TIe probIem
cuLs boLI wuys - noL uII purLners work reIIubIIILy wILI LIe USA. or exumpIe, NASA udmInIsLruLor
Seun O`KeeIe cunceIIed LIe Crew ReLurn VeIIcIe (CRV) InILIuLIve In zoo1 urguIng IL wus cIeuper In LIe Iong run Lo
buy RussIun Soyuz cupsuIes Lo purk us un escupe pod uL LIe SS, InsLeud oI InvesLIng $1.e.o bIIIIon Lo deveIop
und buIId u US rescue cupubIIILy.qq Once LIe Spuce SIuLLIe progrum comes Lo un end, LIe USA wIII be reIIunL
on LIe RussIuns Lo LrunsporL usLronuuLs Lo LIe SS Ior uL IeusL seven yeurs (uccordIng Lo LIe
AugusLIne CommILLee`s ReporL).q Now RussIu Ius neurIy doubIed LIe cosL oI un escupe pod cupsuIe
Lo $6 mIIIIon eucI.q6 L`s eusy Lo reuson LIuL LIe SovIeLs, rebrunded us RussIun cupILuIIsLs, Iuve Ieurned LIe
Iessons oI cupILuIIsm uII Loo weII.

Sturter Puck

Cooperution Iuils - Luondry List [

{__) Cooperution Iuils - reusons

YeL IL sIouId be noLed LIuL LIere ure some obsLucIes Lo IuvIng subsLunLIuI cooperuLIon In spuce.
IrsL, us muny Iuve noLed, coIIuboruLIon umong nuLIons does noL necessurIIy conLrIbuLe Lo cosL
suvIngs. RuLIer, IL someLImes cuuses budgeL overruns und deIuys. Even II one cun expecL cosL
reducLIons, spuce-reIuLed ucLIvILIes sLIII enLuII u IoL oI cosLs. Some counLrIes muy LIereIore
IesILuLe Lo coIIuboruLe und preIer conLInued reIIunce on LIe USA or commercIuI servIces.
Second, LIe IuLure oI LIe ongoIng reIorm oI LIe US exporL conLroI sysLem Is uncerLuIn wIIIe LIe
domesLIc poIILIcuI scene In LIe USA remuIns cIoudy. usLIy, some AmerIcun Iuwmukers Iuve
voIced concerns LIuL even cIvII spuce cooperuLIon wILI CIInu muy sLrengLIen CIInese mIIILury
cupubIIILIes.z6 TIese ure LIe Issues wIIcI need Lo be consIdered wIen promoLIng InLernuLIonuI cooperuLIon.

Sturter Puck

Cooperution Iuils - Chinu 1[

{__) Cooperution with Chinu Iuils - progrum is strutegic

ndeed, CIInu's spuce progrum Is overwIeImIngIy mIIILury In nuLure. And nowIere more so LIun
In LIe munned spuce progrum, LIe "communders" or "dIrecLors" oI wIIcI IncIude LIe Ieud oI LIe GeneruI
ArmumenLs DepurLmenL, one oI LIe Iour generuI depurLmenLs responsIbIe Ior duy-Lo-duy munugemenL oI LIe
enLIre PeopIe's IberuLIon Army (PA). TIe cIuIIenges presenLed by LIe CIInese spuce progrum's
sLrong LIes Lo LIe PA ure exucerbuLed by LIe generuIIy opuque nuLure oI CIInu's spuce progrum
on Issues rungIng Irom wIo LIe Lop decIsIon-mukers ure Lo LIe sIze oI LIeIr budgeL. Any eIIorL
uL cooperuLIon Is IIkeIy Lo be sLymIed so Iong us LIe PRC vIews Lrunspurency us u one-wuy uIIuIr.

Sturter Puck
q

Cooperution Iuils - Chinu [

{__) Cooperution will not inIloence the orientution oI Chinu's spuce progrum
Sterner - Iellow @ the George C. Murshull Institote, held senior stuII positions with the Hoose
Armed Services und Science Committee - q
Iric, LS-Chinu spuce relutions: muintuining un urm's length', Spuce News, { Murch ooq), p. 1q.

OLIers wIII be LempLed Lo promoLe u purLnersIIp In LIe vuIn Iope oI InIIuencIng LIe dIrecLIon
oI CIInu's spuce progrum. TIe sImpIe LruLI Is LIuL CIInu's spuce progrum exIsLs Lo serve LIe
InLeresLs - boLI domesLIc und IoreIgn - oI LIe ruI-Ing purLy In BeIjIng. L Is noL mereIy un
uppenduge oI LIe U.S.-PRC reIuLIonsIIp Lo be dIrecLed by wesLern curroLs und sLIcks. TIe CIInese
peopIe ure ImmenseIy proud oI LIeIr uccompIIsImenLs In orbIL, us weII LIey sIouId be. TIey represenL LecInIcuI
prowess LIuL once be- BeIjIng's spuce beIuvIor LIrougI LIe promIse oI u cIose purLnersIIp uny more LIun KIng
CunuLe couId order LIe LIdes Lo sLop. ndeed, u Lrue purLnersIIp muy exucerbuLe LIe conIIIcL oI
InLeresLs by sLrengLIenIng CIInu's LecInIcuI cupubIIILIes und poIILIcuI weIgIL In spuce muLLers.
nsLeud oI seeIng new poLenLIuI purLners In CIInu, spuce poIIcymukers musL wuLcI LIe IuII runge oI deveIopmenLs
In CIInu cIoseIy wILI un eye Lowurd ImprovIng our undersLundIng oI BeIjIng's cupubIIILIes und InLenLIons.

CooperationandCompetitionCore - CNDI

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CNI o11 Spuce Cooperution VS.

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