Strategy Analysis for the Control of Epidemics

By Allen L. Nazareno and Jomar F. Rabajante

Abstract
This research is an extension of the epidemics model using S-Systems. Here, we analyzed the
different control points during the disease spread process. There are four identified control
points: (1) the inflow and outflow of susceptible populations; (2) the point of contact between
spreaders and susceptibles; (3) the point of infection; and (4) the outflow of spreaders and the
infected. Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to determine the factors that beekeepers may
manipulate to control the spread of disease. The result of this research may support or contrast
the current strategies in epidemiology.

Introduction
The spread of diseases can be modelled using compartments. Previous researches, such as the
Kermack & McKendricks SIR Epidemics Model, have been used to control epidemics. In this
paper, we extend the S-Systems model to determine possible control points. A decision-making
technique is also presented to come up with strategies for optimal control.

The Compartment Model
This compartment model is easily generalizable, but for simplicity, let us assume two clusters of
colonies/species.
For = 1,2, define:

to be the susceptible colonies/species from cluster ;

to be the set of susceptible colonies/species from cluster having contact with a

spreader from cluster ;

to be the infected colonies/species from cluster ; and

to be the recovered or immune colonies/species from cluster .

The set of spreaders is a subset of the set of infected colonies/species.


Figure 1. The Compartment Model

The inflow and outflow to and from the whole system represent birth/entrance and death/exit,
respectively. The lines represent the change from one state to another state. Dashed lines
represent feedbacks or influence.






The Control Points
(1) The inflow and outflow of susceptible populations. To eliminate disease contagion, we can
prohibit entrance of new colonies/species to the system, or transfer current
colonies/species to another location.


(2) The point of contact between spreaders and susceptible. To control the spread, we can
control the contact among spreaders and susceptible. For example, we can have an
exclusive site for non-infected clusters, or we may quarantine the infected.


(3) The point of infection. For example, to control epidemics, we cam immunize the population.


(4) The outflow of spreaders and the infected. We can totally eradicate the presence of infected,
such as burning colonies.


The Fuzzy AHP
An operations research tool can be used to decide what factors can be manipulated to have a
feasible, practical but effective control. To decide which factors (called as criteria) should be
manipulated first, we use can Fuzzy AHP. The traditional AHP employs Saatys scale in which the
factors are given weights based on the judgment of the decision-maker.

Table 1. Saatys scale for pairwise comparison
Saatys scale Relative importance between two priorities
1 Equally important
3 Moderately important with one over another
5 Strongly important
7 Very strongly important
9 Extremely Important
2,4,6,8 Intermediate Values

The comparison matrix A, which follows on the decision-makers judgment between the
relative importance between two factors, is constructed.







The matrix above is transformed into a fuzzy comparison matrix with a different membership
scales shown below (Kong and Liu, 2006).


1
1
1
i
n
j
ij
b
n
r
=
=
(

(
(

1
i
i
n
i
j
b
w
b
=
=
(
(

Table 2. Scale for fuzzy pairwise comparison

Scale values Relative importance between two criteria
0.5 Equally Important
0.55(or 0.5, 0.6) Slightly Important
0.65(or 0.6, 0.7) Important
0.75(or 0.8, 0.9) Strongly Important
0.85(or 0.8, 0.9) Very Strongly Important
0.95(or 0.9, 1.0) Extremely Important

The scales used in the table follows the relationship:
1
ij
ij
ij
a
r
a
=
+


The priority weights are determined using the following formulas:





where,




The use of having S-system and this strategy analysis is that we can theoretically test if our
strategies are effective. Given parameters, the solution to the S-system can be used to check
the possible effect of controls.
1 2
( , ,..., )
n
W w w w =
References:

Kermack, W. O. and McKendrick, A. G. "A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of
Epidemics." Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. A 115, 700-721, 1927.

Taha, H. A. (2007). Operations Research: An Introduction. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall.

Kong, F., & Liu, H. (2006). Applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to Evaluate Success Factors
of E-commerce. Retrieved September 9, 2009, from
http://www.math.ualberta.ca/ijiss/SS-Volume-1-2005/No-3-05/SS-05-03-22.pdf