October 17, 2008

To: Interested Parties

Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt
Re: Summary of Polling in Illinois CD-11
Democrat Debbie Halvorson has expanded her lead over Republican Martin Ozinga in the open-seat race
for Illinois’ 11th Congressional District. Halvorson’s broadcast television buy has shifted the dynamics of
the race in her favor, and given the resources to continue her paid communications, she is a strong favorite
to win this election.

Halvorson currently leads Ozinga by 19 points

• Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 48% to 29% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5%.
Halvorson has built a sizeable 19-point lead, but still needs a few points of expansion in order to
win.

• Halvorson more than doubled her lead since mid-September when she led by 8 points (43%
Halvorson / 35% Ozinga). Although Ozinga has made substantial investments in cable television
and mail, Halvorson’s message about strengthening the middle class and fixing the national
healthcare crisis has moved the race in her favor.

• The candidates have similar name identification (63% Halvorson / 59% Ozinga), but Ozinga has a
high unfavorable rating that makes it difficult for him to expand his support. More voters are
unfavorable towards Ozinga than favorable (27% favorable / 32% unfavorable). Ozinga’s
favorable rating is 13 points lower than Halvorson’s and his unfavorable rating is 10 points higher
than Halvorson’s (40% favorable / 22% unfavorable).

The political environment is extremely competitive

• Since September, Democrats have gone from a small deficit on the generic ballot (38% Democrat /
40% Republican) to a small advantage (38% Democrat / 36% Republican). Barack Obama has
taken a 2-point lead (43% Obama / 41% McCain) after trailing by 5 points in mid-September.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11.
Interviews were conducted between October 10-13, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned
geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% at a 95% confidence level.