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May 30, 2008
NTPC
Safe Haven in Inflationary
Environment
Quick Comment: NTPC reported F2008 net revenue of

Rs370.5 bn (up 13.7% YoY) and earnings of Rs74.1 bn
(8.0% YoY). However, earnings adjusted for
extra-ordinary items in F2008 were Rs75.7 bn (up
15.3% YoY) as against our estimate of Rs74.9 bn.
NTPC\u2019s capacity at the end of F2008 was 29,144 MW,

which included 1,794 MW from joint venture companies.
What's New: NTPC plans to have a generation capacity

of 50,000 MW by the end of F2012 and 75,000+ MW by
the end of F2017. During F2008, NTPC added 1,740
MW \u2013 500 MW of Sipat II, 500 MW of Kahalgaon II, and
740 MW through joint ventures. This was against our
capacity addition expectation of 2,500 MW (excluding
joint ventures). NTPC plans to add 22,430 MW in the
11th Plan of which 1,990 MW has already been
commercialized, 16,680 MW is under construction, and
for 3,760 MW, it is in the process of receiving/inviting

bids. The pattern of commissioning these plants is 2,820 MW in F2009, 3,600 MW in F2010, 6,620 MW in F2011, and 7,650 MW in F2012.

On coal mining, the company has been allotted six coal
blocks with estimated geological reserves of 3 bn tonnes

and annual production capacity of 48 mn tonnes. The
company has also entered into an equal joint venture
with Coal India Limited for two coal blocks that can
produce 20 mtpa. Coal mining plan for the Pakri
Barwadih mine is in place, and the Mine Developer cum
Operator is being evaluated. We believe the company is
also developing the other coal blocks. NTPC aims to
start producing 2.3 mtpa of coal in F2010, 6.2 mtpa in
F2011, and14 mtpa in F2012. It wants to enhance its
coal production to 47 mtpa by F2017.

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Morgan Stanley India Company
Private Limited+
Parag Gupta
Parag.Gupta@morganstanley.com
+91 22 2209 7915
Saumya Srivastav
Saumya.Srivastav@morganstanley.com
+91 22 2209 7084
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
A S I A / P A C I F I C
Stock Rating
Equal-weight
Industry View
In-Line
Key Ratios and Statistics
Reuters: NTPC.BO Bloomberg: NATP IN
India Utilities
Price target
Rs146.00
Shr price, close (May 30, 2008)
Rs172.25
Mkt cap, curr (mn)
US$33,395
52-Week Range
Rs291.00-149.00
Shrs out, basic, per-end (03/07) (mn)
8,245
Fiscal Year ending
03/07 03/08e 03/09e 03/10e
ModelWare EPS (Rs)
8.31
9.09
9.83 11.13
EPS, basic, rpt'd (Rs)
8.33
9.09
9.83 11.13
Revenue, net (Rs mn)
326,317 354,453 396,069 437,757
ModelWare net inc (Rs mn)
68,531 74,913 81,037 91,755
P/E
18.0
21.7
17.5
15.5
P/BV
2.5
3.1
2.5
2.3
EV/EBITDA
13.4
18.5
14.5
12.7
Div yld (%)
2.1
1.8
2.2
2.8
e =Morgan Stanley Research estimates
2
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
May 30, 2008
NTPC
Implications: NTPC targets to have more than 50,000 MW at

the end of F2012 (including joint venture capacity), while we
estimate NTPC to have 41,780 MW (excluding joint venture
capacity). In our view, it is key for the company to ensure
timely completion of its projects, as any delays would be

negative for the stock. We believe NTPC will remain insulated from rising commodity prices and increasing funding costs (as all costs are passed through) and hence can provide a safe haven for investors.

Exhibit 1
NTPC: Standalone F4Q08 Results
Rs Mn
Mar-07
Mar-08
YoY
Revenue
85,921
104,022
21%
Expenses
63,951
77,759
22%
Employee Cost
2,166
2,511
16%
Fuel
56,869
67,999
20%
Others
4,916
7,249
47%
EBITDA
21,970
26,263
20%
EBITDA Margins
26%
25%
-32 bps
Depreciation
6,081
6,071
0%
EBIT
15,889
20,192
27%
EBIT Margins
18%
19%
92 bps
Interest and Finance
Charges
4,216
4,610
9%

Other income net of
rebate under One time
settlement

7,779
7,439
-4%
Pretax Profit
19,452
23,021
18%
Tax
914
1,255
37%
Tax Rate
5%
5%
75 bps
Net Profit after Tax
(adjusted)
18,538
21,766
17%
Extraordinary / Prior
Period Items
(1,191)
(8,371)
Reported Net Profit
17,347
13,395
-23%
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 2
NTPC: Standalone F2008 Results
Rs Mn
F2007
F2008
YoY
Revenue
325,952
370,501
14%
Expenses
225,385
258,262
15%
Employee Cost
11,632
18,960
63%
Fuel
198,181
220,202
11%
Others
15,572
19,100
23%
EBITDA
100,567
112,239
12%
EBITDA Margins
31%
30%
-56 bps
Depreciation
20,754
21,385
3%
EBIT
79,813
90,854
14%
EBIT Margins
24%
25%
4 bps
Interest and Finance
Charges
18,594
17,981
-3%

Other income net of
rebate under One time
settlement

27,855
29,676
7%
Pretax Profit
89,074
102,549
15%
Tax
20,427
28,401
39%
Tax Rate
23%
28%
476 bps
Net Profit after Tax
68,647
74,148
8%
Extraordinary / Prior
Period Items
(3,027)
1,540
Adjusted Net Profit
65,620
75,688
15%
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Company Description

NTPC is India's largest state-owned power-generating
company, with an installed capacity of 29,144 MW. The
company's power plants are largely coal-fired, but it has 3,955

MW of gas and hydro plants. NTPC was listed in November
2004, and the Government of India holds 89.5% of its equity.
India Utilities
Industry View: In-Line
MSCI Country: India
Asia Strategist's Recommended Weight: 3.5%
MSCI Asia/Pac All Country Ex Jp Weight: 7.4%
3
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
May 30, 2008
NTPC

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uncover value, adjusting for distortions and ambiguities created by local accounting
regulations. For example, ModelWare EPS adjusts for one-time events, capitalizes operating

leases (where their use is significant), and converts inventory from LIFO costing to a FIFO basis. ModelWare also emphasizes the separation of operating performance of a company from its financing for a more complete view of how a company generates earnings.

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Analyst Certification

The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and
that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this
report: Parag Gupta.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.

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Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies

The following analyst, strategist, or research associate (or a household member) owns securities (or related derivatives) in a company that he or she covers or recommends in Morgan Stanley Research: Saumya Srivastav - NTPC (common stock). Morgan Stanley policy prohibits research analysts, strategists and research associates from investing in securities in their sub industry as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS," which was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P). Analysts may nevertheless own such securities to the extent acquired under a prior policy or in a merger, fund distribution or other involuntary acquisition.

As of April 30, 2008, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in
Morgan Stanley Research: NTPC, Reliance Infrastructure Limited, Tata Power Co.
In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from LANCO Infratech Ltd,

Tata Power Co.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking
services from Tata Power Co.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client
relationship with, the following company: LANCO Infratech Ltd, Tata Power Co.

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