FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 10, 2011
OBAMA, ROMNEY TIED IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS;CAIN, ROMNEY DUEL FOR GOP LEAD IN ALL THREE STATES
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FLORIDA: Obama 42 – Romney 45OHIO: Obama 45 – Romney 42PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 44 – Romney 43
One year before the presidential election, President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. MittRomney are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the three states that for the pasthalf-century have predicted the presidential winner, according to the first Quinnipiac University “SwingState Poll” of the 2012 cycle released today. The president leads the other top GOP contenders,although half the voters in each state say he does not deserve a second term. Since 1960, no candidatehas won the presidency without carrying at least two of these three states.Herman Cain and Romney lead the Republican primary pack in all three states, the independentQuinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.But when all voters – not just Republicans – are asked about Romney and Cain, voters are morecomfortable with the idea of Romney as president. Romney is considered more honest and trustworthyand makes a more favorable impression, while Cain is viewed more unfavorably.“Although President Barack Obama is running behind his 2008 showings in the three key swingstates against Gov. Mitt Romney, he actually does better against the other GOP aspirants – includingHerman Cain – than he did against Sen. John McCain,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of theQuinnipiac University Polling Institute. “That may not be surprising given the president’s substantialname recognition edge on any of his challengers.”“His wide lead over most of the field and his neck-and-neck race with Romney show that thedissatisfaction with the president as evidenced by his mid-40s percent job approval and weak ‘deserves asecond term’ ratings hasn’t translated into affection for his GOP challengers,” Brown added.
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Peter A. Brown, AssistantDirector,Quinnipiac University PollingInstitute(203) 582-5201
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,Public RelationsPat Smith 212 843-8026
Quinnipiac University Poll/November 10, 2011 – page 2
“Questions about Herman Cain’s behavior as head of the National Restaurant Associationhaven’t derailed his candidacy so far, and he remains strong among Republicans. While the immediateeffect hasn’t been catastrophic, it’s unclear whether the story will have legs that will make a larger dentin the ‘Cain Train’ as we get closer to the actual primaries. Nevertheless, there is a negative effect fromthe controversy on his standing among non-Republicans that gives him overall negative ratings on voter comfort level with him as president and whether he is honest and trustworthy. The gender gap is largeas women in each state are more negative on Cain.”
Florida
Pitting President Obama against possible Republican challengers shows:
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Romney at 45 percent to Obama’s 42 percent;
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Obama edging Cain 45 – 41 percent;
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Obama at 45 percent to House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s 42 percent;
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Obama over Texas Gov. Rick Perry 46 – 40 percent.Cain leads the Republican primary field with 27 percent, followed by Romney at 21 percent,Gingrich at 17 percent and Perry at 5 percent, with no other candidate over 4 percent.In a two-man race, Cain tops Romney 45 – 39 percent. There is a large gender gap as men back Cain 54 – 34 percent while women go with Romney 44 – 35 percent.Florida voters disapprove 52 – 41 percent of the job Obama is doing and say 51 – 43 percent thathe does not deserve reelection.The economy is the most important issue in the 2012 presidential election, 55 percent of Floridavoters say. Romney would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 – 39 percent. Cain would do a better job, 45 percent say, compared to 42 percent for Obama.Voters say 40 – 36 percent that Cain is honest and trustworthy compared to 51 – 28 percent for Romney.A total of 39 percent of voters are “very comfortable” or “fairly comfortable” with the idea of Cain as president, compared to 50 percent who are very or somewhat comfortable with Romney. Caingets a split 36 – 34 percent favorability rating, compared to Romney’s 40 – 28 percent rating.“Of these three swing states President Obama carried in 2008, Florida was the biggest surpriseand had the closest margin,” said Brown. “Florida is shaping up to be the closest swing state again in2012 and it’s a fair bet that a year from now, it will be the toughest of the Big Three for Obama tocarry.”“If speculation that Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida could be the GOP’s vice presidential nominee proves correct, that would make the Sunshine State even a tougher sale for the president,” said Brown.2
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The 2012 presidential face-off in Ohio shows:
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Obama at 45 percent to Romney’s 42 percent;
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Obama topping Cain 48 – 38 percent;
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Obama beating Gingrich 49 – 37 percent;
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Obama over Perry 48 – 36 percent.In the GOP presidential race, Cain gets 25 percent to Romney’s 20 percent, with Gingrich at 11 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 9 percent and Perry tied with Minnesota U.S. Rep. MicheleBachmann at 4 percent each. Cain tops Romney head-to-head 47 – 39 percent.Ohio voters disapprove 50 – 44 percent of the job Obama is doing and split 46 – 48 percent onwhether he deserves reelection.The economy is the top presidential campaign issue for 54 percent of Ohio voters and 45 percentof voters say Romney would do a better job on this issue, compared to 43 percent who pick Obama.Obama would do a better job on the economy than Cain, voters say 46 – 39 percent.Voters split 38 – 37 percent on whether Cain is honest and trustworthy. Romney gets a 46 – 32 percent honesty rating.Only 30 percent of Ohio voters are comfortable with the idea of Cain as president, while 39 percent are uncomfortable and 30 percent are undecided. Romney gets a 40 – 35 percent comfort score.Romney has a 36 – 31 percent favorability, compared to Cain’s split 30 – 32 percent.“Although the data currently shows Ohio to be winnable for the president, there are many – including some top Democrats – who think it will be a tough job because the state is home to largenumbers of blue-collar whites among whom Obama has always had problems,” said Brown. “Thisweek’s voter repeal of the state law curbing collective bargaining, and the negative 36 – 51 percent jobapproval rating for Republican Gov. John Kasich, however, give the White House hope that the BuckeyeState might not be out of reach.”
Pennsylvania
The 2012 presidential matchups in the Keystone State are:
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Obama 44 percent to Romney’s 43 percent;
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Obama tops Cain 48 – 38 percent;
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Obama beats Gingrich 48 – 38 percent;
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Obama bests Perry 47 – 38 percent.
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