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Making Russia work Key takeaways Focusing on critical success factors Companies are reporting an OK year Homing in on the middle classes some observations Challenges are threatening growth prospects
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Emmanuelle Roman Global Markets Leader Consumer Products eroman@uk.ey.com +44 (0)20 7951 1651
Adlai Goldberg CIS Performance Improvement Leader Advisory Services adlai.goldberg@ru.ey.com +7 (495) 755 9847
Key takeaways
Company leaders still view Russia as a market with huge opportunity. However, some still feel that they need to explain Russia to their global headquarters. Most executives agree that you have to live with the predictable unpredictability of the market, in particular the arbitrary tax and regulatory environment. A concern for some companies is the perceived unpredictability of government intervention. For most companies, 2010 was OK, ne, not bad but generally not a bounce back or a fast V-shaped recovery; some companies, however, performed better than average. Executives all agree that consumer condence is coming back and they are feeling more positive about the future. The last four to six weeks of the year were going to be decisive for some in judging 2010 as a whole there was still a lot to play for. The turnaround is attributed by many to getting the innovation, value proposition, pricing and consumer service right. There is consensus that the market will no longer be the same and that the game has changed. Executives remain unsure about the future intentions of the consumer just as they were six months ago. They do know that the Russian consumer is more value conscious and has become more sophisticated. As one executive put it Russia is becoming a normal market where people are becoming real, more informed and educated consumers and therefore much more like their European neighbors. Most executives report that the premium segment is strong and there is still room for growth in years to come. Some wonder to what extent they should focus on affordable innovation. One executive asked: What should be the right combination between premium and mass market going forward? Human resources and talent management remain at the forefront of executive strategic thinking loyalty, turnover and rising salaries are issues. Some executives question whether they will be able to grow their business at the rate they plan due to the shortage of talent. Developing a strong middle management team is seen as a signicant driver to motivating and retaining people.
Economic snapshot
GDP is recovering and so is the Russian economy. The GDP growth would have nished 2010 at 5.2% without the summer drought and autumn investment dip. It looks set to nish 2010 just under 4.0% and next year rise to 4.5% and maintain at that level in future years. Ination is rising but interest rates remain low. For the same reasons, ination would have nished at 6.8% in 2010; instead it nished at 8.8%. It will remain stubborn in the rst three to four months of 2011 before falling back to around 7.8% at the end of the year and trending down to around 6.8% in 2012. The Central Bank had been keeping interest rates low because it wanted to stimulate the economy, but looks set to raise them gradually in 2011. Credit ow is still an issue. Bank credit grew in singledigits in 2010 and the Central Bank is probably correct to expect credit emissions to rise by 12%15% in 2011. But this is insufcient to drive the economy. Consumer credit was rising at the end of 2010 and we shall see if that trend continues. Oil price is strong but the rouble is going through a funny period. With the oil at US$100 per barrel, the rouble ought to be trading 4%6% higher than it is, based on averages in the last 18 months. Low interest rates, rising ination and resulting capital outows are some reasons why the rouble is going through a funny, weak period at a level logically lower than normal.
and providing strong leadership can pay dividends in an increasingly competitive marketplace. The game is about more than just cash investing in the development of a modern workplace, introducing exible management practices and applying an international mindset can have a signicant effect.
One of the more bullish attendees saw revenue in Eastern Europe grow 20% in 2009 as the business beneted from unemployment worries and women looking to save money during the recession. A regional MD from the beverage sector summarized his latest trends and future ones by saying: I am increasingly positive. Our nancial year started in July and we had a tough start with a slow quarter. But the consumer is coming back and November was strong. People are beginning to spend and Christmas will be good as Russians like to have a good Christmas. After January, it will be a sustained recovery, so I am feeling good but not great. One major company operating across several consumer products sectors had reported topline sales growth of 8%10% in 2010 and, in its 2011 budget, was managing expectations and looking to grow further at a steady 12%14% through 2011. He said that these numbers matched those of many consumer products companies overall.
One luxury goods executive said that 2010 had been an ascending year. Fundamentally, beauty and luxury is an enduring segment in Russia, and Russians have a passion for brands. A brewer conrmed that consumer condence is returning at the top end and that premium brands are selling better than cheaper goods. A consumer products leader endorsed this view, saying: Tier 1 and 2 products are going up, tier 3 are at and tier 4 are declining. I see more premium brands growing. The premium trend is also apparent in apparel. An executive said: Expensive products are going through the roof when you have good innovation and a good story, you are there with the consumer. With the right innovation and the right communication, consumers are responding very well. Overall, the market continues to premiumize in coffee, dairy, alcohol, tobacco and other segments, although the rate of premium growth was not as high in 2010 as assumed in operating plans. With premium the primary driver of margin in an increasingly high-cost market, companies will be keen to conrm that appetites remain strong. All eyes will be on the rst quarter of 2011 as a marker for how sustainable the market will prove to be. December to March is a critical season for this industry and, at this point, it remains to be seen whether the ups of Christmas may be compensated by a sluggish rst few weeks of the new year.
When you have good innovation and a good story, you are there with the consumer. With the right innovation and the right communication, consumers are responding very well.
uncertainty over the future intentions of the consumer, just as there was at the meeting six months previously, executives seemed to be more comfortable with this uncertainty. There is a growing acceptance that this is the way the Russian market is, and a growing belief that companies can make it work, despite not having all the answers. Lower down the product portfolio, the stress on value remains equally important. As one executive in the beverage industry conrmed: We followed the consumer down during the downturn and the search for value will remain. It has hit our margins. The consumer has been trained to look for value during the recession, and an increasing volume went via promotions. It will be difcult to go back.
also a particular concern and adding to margin pressures. None of these concerns is expected to improve in the short or medium term, putting continuing pressure on companies ability to perform adequately in this segment. Although getting the balance between premium and mass market right will be tough, at least one delegate felt this was a positive position to be in, however: The good news is that the Russian market has the potential to be both a good premium price market and an expanding lower price, affordable innovation market.
Getting the right balance between premium and affordable is a real challenge
Executives are very concerned about rising commodity/input prices making Russia an even more expensive place to do business. This raises questions about how companies implement affordable innovation: how do you create products at cheaper prices in Russia when your cost base is so high? Execution and productivity are the answers, but how viable are these? A food company executive spoke of how the company had introduced a pricing reset and prioritized affordable innovation as part of a refocus away from heavily advertised premium goods in favor of the mass market, where it sees signicant potential. This strategy had generated double-digit growth across every indicator but raises a new question: What is the right balance between premium and mass market?
The good news is that the Russian market has the potential to be both a good premium price market and an expanding lower price, affordable innovation market.
The challenge for companies is in funding affordable innovation when costs are rising and margins are shrinking. In addition to Russian ination, global imported ination and food product ination are both pushing up the cost base, usually quicker than the price rises of Western products. The rising cost of people is
People in the organization do not believe us when we tell them that there is a new tax law to be effective a month later but nobody knows what it will be.
Russians remain brand conscious and the growing middle class makes this an attractive market for high-value items. However, companies should note that average gures conceal considerable regional inequalities. For example, rural areas tend to contain a higher proportion of poorer Russians, especially elderly living on xed incomes.
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146
140
135
129 122
100
50
10.56
73% of the population is urban and accounts for 85% of the purchasing power Half of Russias population lives in cities with greater than 100,000 inhabitants
25
21
20
14
82% of all households in Russia will be part of the middle class by 2015 Russia is the only BRIC market with a tangible upper middle class today (10m households with income >US$50,000 at PPP)
15
10
Source: Global Insight, Rosstat 4 6 8 10 Population of Russias largest cities 2010 (m) 12
12
10 8 6 4 2 0
Population (m)
1,000
500
140 135
2010
2020
1 to 3
3 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 20
20 to 25
25 to 30
30 to 40
40 to 50
50 and above
2009
2014
Another suggested strategy was to focus on leaders. What makes people tick are leaders. You need to nd a leader, someone who makes things in a simple way and someone who wants change; then, you need to talk to them to ensure that what is in your head is in their head. There are gems out there.
Making our business sustainable will require the right leadership team it is difcult to nd and build it.
One executive explained how he tackled the turnover problem by interviewing all the leavers and identifying what was clearly a core issue that 95% were not satised with the management. Since that time, the company has invested in middle management, is looking after them and, as a consequence, has seen motivation levels rise and staff turnover drop to less than 10%.
In the current unpredictable regulatory environment, companies seemed to be experiencing difculties in framing an effective response to these black market challenges. A beverage company questioned when regulations will become clear and transparent to reduce the level of grey business in Russia.
Taxes have the largest potential impact on our business, a huge impact on our protability.
One of the executives conded that: Taxes have the largest potential impact on our business, a huge impact on our protability. What can we expect? When the Government is looking for money, it targets bad sectors (such as tobacco) and foreign companies, so we are not in the best position. While the Government continues to prioritize social spending for example, raising pensions by 46% the need to balance the budget by raiding corporate coffers is unlikely to diminish. Not surprisingly, there is a level of frustration that while businesses know that tax changes will be implemented, they receive no advance warning of the nature of the change and therefore have no opportunity to plan accordingly; or to factor the impact of future tax charges into their growth projections.
Judging the timing and size of pay increases is the most challenging operational issue facing executives globally but especially those in emerging markets.
In addition, businesses are struggling with rising commodity costs, which will translate into higher input costs resulting in lower prot margins. Globally, the cost of raw materials rose sharply in 2010, driven by supply constraints, increased demand, particularly in emerging markets and investment speculation. Companies are starting to acknowledge that they will need to pass on these additional costs in higher consumer prices.
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