Professional Documents
Culture Documents
18 Agustus 2011
Ringkasan Sterling abaikan minutes BoE. SNB gagal redam laju franc Swiss. Aussie coba ikuti kenaikan komoditas. Rencana paket Obama untuk mendorong perekonomian.
Swissie bergerak menguat dan mengabaikan pernyataan SNB yang mengatakan akan manambah likuiditas hingga 200 milyar Franc dari sebelumnya 120 milyar, sembari menegaskan kembali akan mengambil langkah-langkah tambahan jika diperlukan. Sementara dalam pertemuan terpisah, pemerintah Swiss juga mengumumkan peluncuran paket yang menyediakan dana sebesar 2 milyar Franc Swiss untuk mendukung perekonomian dan membantu sektor ekspor dan pariwisata. "Pasar sangat kecewa karena pada awalnya mereka mengharapkan tindakan yang lebih besar," kata Chris Walker, analis mata uang pada UBS di London. "Satu-satunya alasan Dollar/Franc bergerak naik adalah antisipasi para investor terhadap kemungkinan tindakan yang lebih agresif dari bank sentral, dan itu tidak terjadi. Sehingga mendorong berlanjutnya pembelian mata uang Swiss."
The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
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AGENDA ON AUGUST 18th 2011 Tokyo - Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda gives speech in a seminar "for reconstruction and growth of Japanese economy" - 1630 WIB U.S. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley speaks on the regional and national econ-outlook before local community and business leaders, Newark, N.J. - 1935 WIB Ottawa - Bank of Canada Review publication - 2130 WIB Vienna - Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter holds briefing on subsidies - 2300 WIB U.S. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley is briefed on city economic development and revitalization efforts and participates in waterfront development tour through Jersey City, Jersey City, N.J. - 0130 WIB FACTORS TO WATCH FOR INDICES ON THURSDAY H.K. : Earnings results from Agile Property Holdings; Allied Overseas; Anhui Tianda Oil Pipe; Asia Energy Logistics Group; Asia Satellite Telecommunications Holdings; Bank of Communications; Bonjour Holdings; China Datang Corporation Renewable Power; China Gogreen Assets Investment; China Huiyuan Juice Group; China Innovation Investment; China Mobile; China SCE Property Holdings; Chow Sang Sang Holdings International; Daphne International Holdings; Daqing Dairy Holdings; e-Kong Group; Good Friend International Holdings; Guangshen Railway; Huadian Power International; Junefield Department Store Group; KWG Property Holding; Lenovo Group; Maanshan Iron & Steel; Qunxing Paper Holdings; Sino-Ocean Land Holdings; Sinopec Kantons Holdings; Sinotrans; Sumpo Food Holdings; Sunny Optical Technology (Group); Tong Ren Tang Technologies; Transport International Holdings; Value Convergence Holdings; Varitronix International; West China Cement U.S. : Earnings reports from Autodesk; Salesforce com; Gap; Hewlett-Packard; Sears Holdings Fed 0.00.25% SNB 0.25% ECB 1.50% BOC 1.00% BOE 0.50% RBNZ 3.00% BOJ 0.0-0.10% BI 6.75% RBA 4.75% PBOC 6.56%
The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
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Logam mulia ini awalnya naik menuju $ 1800 per ons setelah data menunjukkan data produsen inti AS naik pada laju tercepat dalam enam bulan pada Juli. Profit taking kemudian terjadi setelah sebagian besar pasar mengabaikan berita bahwa Presiden Venezuela Hugo Chavez mengatakan ia berencana untuk menasionalisasi sektor negara emas, termasuk ekstraksi dan pengolahan, dan menggunakan produksi untuk meningkatkan cadangan devisa negara.
This data will be release at 19.30 WIB Forecast is 0.2% VS 0.3% The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
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EUR/USD
Bias kembali netral dalam jangka pendek tetapi formasi double top dapat memicu terjadinya bearish lanjutan dengan mencoba ke area support 1.4430 1.4320, bahkan mencoba kembali ke garis bawah dari pola triangle seperti pada grafik H4. Untuk pergerakan ke atas, resistance terdekat berada pada 1.4550 diikuti selanjutnya 1.4690. Secara keseluruhan untuk medapatkan arah yang jelas diperlukan break pada pola triangle. Resistance Level Support Level Trading Range Trend : : : : 1.4550, 1.4690, 1.4780 1.4430, 1.4320, 1.4220 1.4430 1.4550 Neutral
GBP/USD
Bias bullish dalam jangka pendek, hanya break di atas 1.6460 dapat menyebabkan terjadinya bullish lanjutan dengan skenario target 1.6730. Bagaimanapun diperlukan break di atas 1.6560 untuk memicu terjadinya momentum bullish lanjutan. Untuk pergerakan ke bawah, support terdekat ada pada 1.6460, konsisten break di bawah area ini dapat memicu terjadinya bearish lanjutan dengan mencoba ke area 1.6340 1.6270 sebagai supportnya. Resistance Level : Support Level : Trading Range : Trend : 1.6560, 1.6625, 1.6730 1.6460, 1.6340, 1.6270 1.6460 1.6625 Bullish
USD/CHF
Secara keseluruhan bias kembali ke skenario bullish khususnya jika harga dapat membuat break yang lain di atas 0.8000 dengan mencoba ke area resistance pada area 0.8275. support terdekat berada pada 0.7750 diikuti 0.7650 sepanjang harga berada di atas 0.7650 intraday bias masih ke atas. Resistance Level : Support Level : Trading Range : Trend : 0.8000, 0.8275, 0.8350 0.7750, 0.7650, 0.7560 0.7750 0.8275 Bullish
The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
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XAU / LOCO
Bias netral setelah harga keluar dari major channel bullish dan tidak berhasil mencapai resistance kuat pada 1797. Tetapi dalam jangka pendek bias berubah ke bullish jika berhasil break di atas 1794. Resistance terdekatnya ada pada 1797, break di atas area ini dapat memicu terjadinya momentum bullish lanjutan menuju area 1814. Untuk pergerakan ke bawah, support terdekat ada pada 1780, break area ini dapat merubah bias netral ke bullish dengan mengincar target pada area 1772 1760. Resistance Level Support Range Trend : 1797, 1814, 1900 : 1780, 1772, 1760 : 1797 1780 : Neutral
INDEX HANGSENG
Bias kembali ke netral setelah hari ini tidak berhasil menembus resistance-nya pada 20510 pada grafik H4. Waspadai Stochastic 5,3,3 yang telah overbought, mengindikasikan dalam jangka pendek harga akan turun. Resistance terdekat berada pada area 20510, break di atas area ini dapat memicu terjadinya bullish lanjutan menuju area 21135. Untuk pergerakan ke bawah, support terdekat ada di 19920, break di bawah area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke target awal 19750 atau bahkan 19485 sebagai area supportnya. Resistance Level : 20510, 20942, 21135 Support Level : 19920, 19750, 19485 Trading Range : 19920 20510 Trend : Neutral
INDEX NIKKEI
Bias masih netral karena belum berhasil menembus resistance dan supportnya hari ini, dengan pergerakan harga masih berkisar di antara 8770 - 9190. Diperlukan break pada kedua sisi untuk mendapatkan arah yang jelas. Resistance terdekat ada di 9190, break harga di atas area ini dapat merubah bias netral ke bearish menuju 9505 bahkan area 9745. Untuk pergerakan ke bawah, support terdekat ada di 8770, break di bawah area ini dapat memicu terjadinya bearish lanjutan target 8460 sebagai area resistance-nya. Resistance Level : Support Level : Trading Range : Trend : 9190, 9505, 9745 8770, 8460, 8230 8770 9190 Netral
The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
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page -6
FORECAST SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ON AUGUST 18th, 2011 RESISTANCE PIVOT AUD 1.0871 1.0699 1.0624 1.0527 1.0452 JPY 77.50 77.05 76.81 76.60 76.36 IDR HOLIDAY DOW 11794 11594 11487 11394 11287 KOSPI 253.85 248.25 245.10 242.65 239.52 OIL 92.37 90.02 88.70 87.67 86.35 THE HIGHEST AND LOWEST LEVEL 2011 A WEEK CURR HIGH LOW EUR 1.4517 1.4259 JPY 79.63 76.38 GBP 1.659 1.6255 CHF 0.8011 0.7767 AUD 1.0601 1.0357 IDR 8541 8520 GOLD 1794.6 1728.5
July RANGE 258 325 335 244 244 21 66.1 HIGH 1.4577 81.48 1.659 0.8525 1.108 8565 1814.55 LOW 1.3835 76.29 1.6109 0.7085 0.9924 8455 1478.75
YEAR 2011 HIGH LOW 1.4939 1.2875 85.54 76.29 1.6745 1.541 0.9785 0.7085 1.1011 0.9704 9088 8455 1814.55 1308.65
CURRENCY MARKET RANGE TRADING ON AUGUST 17th, 2011 Currency Open High Low Close EUR 1.4379 1.4517 1.4323 1.4429 JPY 76.73 76.83 76.38 76.58 GBP 1.6440 1.6590 1.6353 1.6543 CHF 0.7953 0.8011 0.7822 0.7901 1.0469 1.0601 1.0429 1.0550 AUD CAD 0.9822 0.9845 0.9771 0.98 SGD 1.201 1.205 1.1986 1.2011 HOLIDAY IDR 1785.80 1794.60 1779.45 1790.45 GOLD 39.88 40.55 39.82 40.39 SILVER OIL 87.10 89.00 86.65 87.37 CURRENCY CROSSES RANGE TRADING Currency Open High EUR / JPY 110.34 110.96 EUR / CHF 1.1438 1.1552 EUR / GBP 0.8746 0.8808 CHF / JPY 96.41 97.89 AUD / JPY 80.34 81.15 GBP / CHF 1.3073 1.3214 GBP / JPY 126.14 126.96 GLOBAL MARKET INDICES RANGE TRADING
Currency Open High Low Close
Previous 1.4408 76.78 1.6457 0.7959 1.0485 0.9818 1.2008 1785.80 40.03 87.15
Range
Change
Previous
1SSIamU1 1SSIpmU1 .N225 NIYU1 KSU1 HSIQ1 .HSI .JKSE DJM1 .DJI NQM1 .IXIC ESM1 USD
9035 9015 9047.89 9050 240.15 20300 20318.37 3960.113 11420 11392.01 2195.25 2527.79 1196.00 74.063
9085 9110 9081.8 9110 245.75 20476 20504.38 3996.371 11500 11529.67 2214.00 2549.11 1206.75 74.215
9000 9000 9003.7 8995 240.15 20132 20214.72 3937.688 11300 11322.3 2157.25 2488.09 1181.50 73.452
9035 9015 9057.26 9035 242.00 20156 20289.03 3953.277 11381 11410.21 2175.25 2511.48 1190.00 73.782
85 110 78.1 115 5.6 344 289.66 58.683 200 207.37 56.75 61.02 25.25 0.763
-40 -20 -50.17 -15 0.4 39 76.95 -6.745 -6 4.28 -23.75 -11.97 -2.25 -0.175
9075 9035 9107.43 9050 241.60 20117 20212.08 3960.022 11387 11405.93 2199.00 2523.45 1192.25 73.957
The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
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page -7
Date
15.30 15.30
Wednesday August,17th
16.00
18.00 19.30
15.30 15.30
19.30
Thursday August,18th
19.30
Loc AU AU EZ EZ EZ GB GB GB GB GB EZ EZ EZ EZ US US US US US US US JP JP JP JP HK GB GB GB GB US US US US US US US US US US US US US US
Economic Data Wage Price Index q/q Wage Price Index y/y Current Account NSA Current Account SA Net Investment Flow MPC Meeting Minutes Claimant Count ILO Unemployment Rate Average Weekly Average Earnings HICP/Inflation Final m/m HICP/Inflation Final y/y Core Inflation Final m/m Core Inflation Final y/y Mortgage Market Index Refinancing Index Producer Prices Index m/m Producer Prices Index y/y PPI Ex-Food/Energy m/m PPI Ex-Food/Energy y/y Crude Oil Inventories Reuters Tankan Trade Balance Exports y/y Imports y/y Unemployment Rate Core Retail Sales m/m Core Retail Sales y/y Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales y/y Initial Claims 4 Week Average Continuing Claims Consumer Prices m/m Consumer Prices y/y Core CPI m/m Core CPI y/y CPI Index Level Real Weekly Earnings Leading Indicators Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales, pct Cleveland Fed CPI
Period Q2 Q2 Jun Jun Jun Aug Jul Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul w/e w/e Jul Jul Jul Jul w/e Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul w/e w/e w/e Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Jul Jul Jul
Impact Med Med Med Med Low High High Low Med Low Med Med Med Med Low Low High High Med Med Med Low Med Low Low Low High High High High High Low Low Med Med High High Low Low Low High High Low Low
Actual 0.9 3.8 -3.3 -7.4 93.9 0-0-9 37.1 7.9 2.6 2.2 -0.6 2.5 -0.8 1.5 716.4 3915.5 0.2 7.2 0.4 2.5 4.2
Forecast 0.9 3.9 N/F N/F N/F 2-0-7 20.0 7.7 2.3 2.30 -0.6 2.5 -0.6 1.6 N/F N/F 0.1 7.0 0.2 2.3 -0.4 N/F 71.0 -2.4 10.9 N/F 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 400 N/F 3.695 0.2 3.3 0.2 1.7 225.80 N/F 0.2 3.7 4.90 3.8 N/F
Val % % Bln Bln Bln Vote K % % % % % % % Ind Ind % % % % Mln Ind Bln % % % % % % % K K Mln % % % % Ind % % Ind Mln % %
Last 0.8 3.9 -18.7 -5.6 51.9 2-0-7 31.3 7.7 2.3 2.10 0.0 2.5 0.1 1.8 688.0 3625.7 -0.4 7.0 0.3 2.4 -5.2 1 70.7 -1.6 9.8 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.4 395 405.0 3.688 -0.2 3.6 0.3 1.6 225.72 -0.1 0.3 3.2 4.77 -0.8 0.1
DEFINITION Measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and non-durable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.
The information rendered herein by Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.