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Data Mining Applications In Modeling Transshipment Delays Of Cargo Ships

Data Mining Applications In Modeling Transshipment Delays Of Cargo Ships

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Published by ijcsis
The Data mining methods have a plenty of applications in various fields of engineering. The present application area is the Port operations and management. Conventionally port performance was assessed by the ship turnaround time, a marker of cargo handling efficiency. It is a time used up at port for transshipment of cargo and servicing. During the transshipment and servicing, delays were inevitable and occur predominantly; The major delay happening at port was due to the non-availability of trucks for evacuation of cargo from port wharf to the warehouses. Hence, modeling the delay occurrences in port operations had to be done, so as to control the ship’s turnaround time at the port to prevent additional demurrage charges. The objective of this paper was to study the variety of delays caused during the port processes and to model it using Data mining techniques.
The Data mining methods have a plenty of applications in various fields of engineering. The present application area is the Port operations and management. Conventionally port performance was assessed by the ship turnaround time, a marker of cargo handling efficiency. It is a time used up at port for transshipment of cargo and servicing. During the transshipment and servicing, delays were inevitable and occur predominantly; The major delay happening at port was due to the non-availability of trucks for evacuation of cargo from port wharf to the warehouses. Hence, modeling the delay occurrences in port operations had to be done, so as to control the ship’s turnaround time at the port to prevent additional demurrage charges. The objective of this paper was to study the variety of delays caused during the port processes and to model it using Data mining techniques.

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9,No.10, 2011
 Data mining applications in modelingTransshipment delays of Cargo ships
P. Oliver jayaprakash
 
Ph.D student, Division of Transportation engg,
 
 Dept.of Civil engineering, Anna University,Chennai, Tamilnadu, India
 e-mail:sendmailtooliver@yahoo.com
 Dr.K.Gunasekaran,
 
 Associate Professor, Division of Transportation engg.
 
 Dept.of Civil engineering, Anna University,Chennai, Tamilnadu, India
 e-mail:kgunasekaran@hotmail.com
 Dr.S.Muralidharan
 
Professor, Dept.of EEE  Mepco schlenk engineering college,Sivakasi, Tamilnadu, India.
e-mail:yes_murali@yahoo.com
 Abstract
—The Data mining methods have a plenty of applicationsin various fields of engineering. The present application area isthe Port operations and management. Conventionally portperformance was assessed by the ship turnaround time, a markerof cargo handling efficiency. It is a time used up at port fortransshipment of cargo and servicing. During the transshipmentand servicing, delays were inevitable and occur predominantly;The major delay happening at port was due to the non-availability of trucks for evacuation of cargo from port wharf tothe warehouses. Hence, modeling the delay occurrences in portoperations had to be done, so as to control the ship’s turnaroundtime at the port to prevent additional demurrage charges. Theobjective of this paper was to study the variety of delays causedduring the port processes and to model it using Data miningtechniques.
 Keywordst; Data mining techniques, Transshipment delays,Shunt trucks, Artificial neural network, Nonlinear analysis.
I.
 
I
NTRODUCTION
The growing volume of Port related transhipment data raisesmany challenges, one is to extract, store, organize, and use therelevant knowledge generated from those data sets. The datacontent with differing time periods could be deployed forvarious engineering applications. The innovations that occur incomputing infrastructure and the emergence of data miningtools have an impact on decision making related port shipmentoperations. The growing demand for data mining has led to thedevelopment of many algorithms that extract knowledge andfeatures such as missing data values, correlation, trend andpattern, etc. from a large scale databases.Data miningtechniques play a crucial role in several fields of engineeringapplications. They help the managers in formatting the datacollected over an issue and collecting the potential informationout of the data through preprocessing and warehousing tools.The conventional MLR models were replaced by Nonlinearand ANN models to do the prediction of future variable valuesrelated to the complex systems, even with the minimum databecause of their accuracy and reliability in results.This paperfocus on the application of data mining techniques inprocessing the Non-containerized ships related transhipmentdelays and model it using various models such as MLR, NLRand ANN.A ship’s service time, which affects quantum of the consignments imported and exported in a particular timeperiod, was much influenced by berth planning and allocation.Also, it affects the Ship turnaround time, since the vessels’length of stay at port was decided by it. The delay caused byshunt trucks at port gates was one of the crucial issues facedby the Port authorities. The cargo evacuation period wasinfluenced by shunt trucks turnaround time. The turnaroundtime of a truck was estimated as the time taken to evacuate thecargo completely from the port’s quay or wharf to thecompany warehouses located in the port outer area. Portterminals trying to minimise the truck turnaround time, so asto reduce the inland transportation cost of cargo evacuation.The delay component was significant, varying and high indeveloping countries compared to the efficient ports of developed countries.The export or import of commodity was done by theprocedures of port system given in the Figure 1. The majorfactors affecting the ship servicing delay were lengthy portoperational procedures in importing or exporting the cargo,ship related delays (not related to port) and port related delaysand delays due to carriers. Hence, it was necessary to analysethe causes behind delays and to formulate strategies tominimise it.
Figure 1 Operations in Non-containerised cargo
113http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500
 
(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9,No.10, 2011
The list of procedures related to truck shunt operations toevacuate the cargo is given below;Procedures involved in transshipment operations
 
Prepare transit clearance
 
Inland transportation
 
Transport waiting for pickup &loading
 
Wait at port entry
 
Wait at berth
 
Terminal handling activitiesII.
 
PAST
 
LITERATURERavikumar [1] compared the various data maskingtechniques such as encryption, shuffling, scrubling, etc and itswide applications in various industries to secure data fromhacking and discussed the advantages of RandomReplacement as one of the standard method for data maskingwith the highest order of security. Mohammad behrouzian [2]discussed the advantages, limitations and applications of datamining in various industries and the banking industry,especially in the customer relationship management.According to Krishnamurthy [3] data mining is an interfaceamong the broad disciplines like statistics, computer scienceand artificial intelligence, machine learning and data basemanagement,etc.,Kusiak [4] introduced the concepts of machine learning and data mining and presented the casestudies of its applications in industrial, medical, andpharmaceutical domains.Chang Qian Gua [5] discussed the gate capacity of container terminals and built a multiserver queuing model toquantify and optimize the truck delays. Wenjuan Zhao andAnne V. Good child [6] quantified the benefits of truck information that can significantly improve crane productivityand reduce truck delay for those terminals operating withintensive container stacking. Unctad report [7] suggestsvarious port efficiency parameters to rank the berthproductivity. The parameters used were, average ship berthoutput, delays at berth, duration of waiting for berth and turn-round time. Nathan Huynh [8] developed a methodology forexamining the sources of delay of dray trucks at containerterminals and offered specialized solutions using decisiontrees, a data mining technique. U. Bugaric [9] developed asimulation model to optimize the capacity of the Bulk cargoriver terminals by reducing transshipment delay, withoutinvesting on capital costs. Mohammed ali [10] simulated thecritical conditions, when ships were delayed at offshore andcontainers were shifted to port by barges; Kasypi mokhtar [11]built a regression model for vessel turnaround timeconsidering the Transshipment delays and number of gangsemployed per shift, etc. Simeon Djankov [12] segregated thepre-shipment activities such as inspection and technicalclearance; inland carriage and handling; terminal handling,including storage, Customs and technical control. And, heconducted an opinion survey to estimate the delay caused indocument clearance, fees payment and approval processes.F. Soriguera, D. Espinet, F. Robuste [13] optimized theinternal transport cycle using an algorithm, by investigatingthe sub systems such as landside transport, storage of containers in a marine container terminal. Brian M. Lewis,Alan L. Erera, and Chelsea C. White [14] designeda markov process based decision model to help stakeholdersquantify the productivity impacts of temporary closures of aterminal. He demonstrated the uses of decision trees to gaininsight into their operations instead of exhaustive dataanalysis. Rajeev namboothiri [15] studied the fleet operationsmanagement of drayage trucks in a port. Truck congestion atports may lead to serious inefficiencies in drayage operations.H.Murat Celik [16] developed three different ANN models forfreight distribution of short term inter-regional commodityflows among 48 continental states of US, utilizing 1993commodity survey data. Peter B. Marlow [17] proposed a newconcept of agile ports, to measure the port performance byincluding quantitative and qualitative parameters. Rahim F.Benekohal, Yoassry M. El-Zohairy, and Stanley Wang [18]evaluated the effectiveness of an automated bypass system inminimizing the traffic congestion with the use of automaticvehicle identification and Low speed weight in motion arounda weigh station in Illinois to facilitate preclearance for trucksat the weigh station. Jose L. Tongzon [19] built a portperformance model to predict efficiency of transshipmentoperations. This present research focus on Bulk ports handlingNon-containerized cargo ships. The transshipment delay datawas used for building a predictive model for the future shipdelays.III.
 
D
ATA COLLECTION
&
ANALYSIS
 The noncontainerised cargo ship data were collected for thepast five years from 2004 to 2009 from various sourcesincluding India seaports [20, 21&22] for a study port. The datacomprised of number of ship cranes, number of trucksrequired to evacuate, crane productivity, truck travel time,idle time, gang idle time, truck shunt time, truck trip distance,
TABLE
 
I
S
UMMARY OF
T
RANSHIPMENT DELAY DATA
 
Variable Mean S.D Min. Max.
X
1
 102 55 34 504X
2
 0.88 0.36 0.26 1.74X
3
 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.08X
4
 0.28 0.12 0.05 0.72X
5
 27.00 25.00 5.00 80.00X
6
 2.35 1.44 0.33 5.78X
7
 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.18X
8
 0.038 0.026 0.01 0.18Y 0.18 0.09 0.00 0.35Where,Y = Transshipment delay of Non-containerized cargo.X
1
=Number of evacuation trucks,X
2
=Truck travel time,X
3
=Gang nonworkingtime,X
4
=Truck shunting duration,X
5
=Trip distance ,X
6
=Berth Time atberths,X
7
=Waiting time at berth,X
8
= other miscellaneous delays .
114http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500
 
(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9,No.10, 2011
delay caused at berth and the gross delay, ship waiting time forberth outside the channel, time spent on berth (berthing time)and ship turnaround time. The summary of ship delay data andthe methodology of the study were presented in Table 1 &Figure 2.
 A.
 
 preprocessing,Correlation and Trend 
The collected data was preprocessed using data transformationalgorithm and the missing values in the database were filledand the descriptive statistics was estimated. The average craneworking time was 5.93 hours per day and mean gang idle timewas 0.03 days. The mean berthing time was 2.3 days and themean ship turnaround time was 2.71 days. A multivariateanalysis was done to estimate the correlation among dependentand independent variables. The correlation matrix showing thecorrelation among the variables was presented in Table II. Theaverage Crane efficiency at the study port was 19616 Tonnesper day; average ship waiting time at berth was 0.04 day andthe mean crane productivity was 7.67 Tonnes per hour. Theaverage number of trucks required for evacuation was 104; themean truck travel time was 0.88 hour mean delay caused to theship at the port was 0.18 day.To study the relationship between the independentvariables and dependant variable, correlation analysis wascarried out and the results were presented in Table II. Theindependent variable, transshipment delay is highly correlatedwith Delay caused at storage area and by gang /workforce andfurther it was correlated with the ship berthing time at port.Also, it was significantly correlated to the number of evacuation trucks, travel time of truck and trip distance, etc.IV.
 
D
ATA COLLECTION
&
ANALYSIS
 Using the historical data on Transhipment delay collected, anANN model was built, to study the relationship betweenTranshipment delay and other influencing parameters. Also, aMLR model and a multivariate nonlinear regression modelwere built for the above data and statistical performanceand prediction accuracy of models were compared and theoutcomes were presented.A
 Artificial neural network modeling
 An artificial neural network was an emulation of biologicalneural system which could learn and calibrate itself. It wasdeveloped with a systematic step-by-step procedure tooptimize a criterion, the learning rule. The input data andoutput training was fundamental for these networks to get anoptimized output. The neural network was good at studyingpatterns among the input data and learns. The predictionaccuracy increases with the number of learning cycles anditerations. The estimation of Gross transhipment delay causedto the commodity ship tends to vary with type of cargo,season, shipment size and other miscellaneous factors, themost popular and accurate prediction technique;MATLAB’s Back propagation neural network (BPNN)module was utilized to predict the Transhipment delay facedby non-containerised ships from the past data. Figure 3 presentthe hidden layer and architecture of BPNN. The ANN basedmodel was built and training was done using three years’ of past data and for testing & production, the two years data wereused. The inputs, fleet strength of evacuation trucks, truck travel time, delay due to gang -workforce, idle time, shuntingtime, trip distance, berth time, delay at storage area were givenas batch files and the script programming was used to runneural network model with adequate hidden neurons and theoutput, transshipment delay was generated and compared withthe MLR and Nonlinear regression model outputs.The ANN sample statistics (training, testing and production)were given in Table III. The Table IV presents the ANNFigure 2 Methodology of the study
TABLE
 
IIC
ORRELATION VALUES BETWEEN VARIABLES
X
1
X
2
X
3
X
4
X
5
 
X
1
1.00 -0.98 -0.35 -0.50 -0.18X
2
-0.98 1.00 0.37 0.53 0.17X
3
-0.35 0.37 1.00 0.25 0.11X
4
-0.50 0.53 0.25 1.00 0.08X
5
-0.18 0.17 0.11 0.08 1.00X
6
0.07 -0.05 -0.03 -0.52 0.01X
7
0.13 -0.11 -0.05 -0.06 -0.02X
8
0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.03Y -0.21 0.22 0.54 -0.04 0.15X
6
X
7
X
8
YX
1
0.07 0.13 0.00 -0.21X
2
-0.05 -0.11 -0.02 0.22X
3
-0.03 -0.05 -0.03 0.54X
4
-0.52 -0.06 -0.01 -0.04X
5
0.01 -0.02 0.03 0.15X
6
1.00 0.17 -0.37 0.02X
7
0.17 1.00 -0.34 -0.19X
8
-0.37 -0.34 1.00 0.48Y 0.50 0.20 0.60 1.00
115http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500

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