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Jefferies is one of the largest independentinvestment banks in the U.S.
November 23, 2011 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS/COMMERCIAL & INVESTMENT BANKING
12-18 mo. Price Target NAJEF - NYSE $10.063-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate NA52-Wk Range $27.12-$9.50Shares Outstanding 199.7MFloat 148.3MMarket Capitalization $2,009.2M Avg. Daily Trading Volume 5,454,349Dividend/Div Yield $0.30/2.98%Fiscal Year Ends NovBook Value $14.902011E ROE 9.8%LT Debt $3,779.0MPreferred $125.0MCommon Equity $3,175MConvertible Available Yes
Book Value Per Share: Pro forma book value per share adjusted for outstanding restricted stock units.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult.2008A (0.43) (0.03) (0.18) (2.39) (3.23) NM2009A 0.19 0.30 0.42 0.47 1.38 7.3x2010A 0.35 0.41 0.22 0.31 1.28 7.9x2011E 0.42A 0.36A 0.30A 0.24 1.30 7.7x2012E -- -- -- -- 1.40 7.2x
Another Hack Attack
Every analyst is entitled to his or her opinion, but one would think that one aspiringto become a significant rating agency would do a minimum of proof reading and factchecking before launching a highly controversial report. In a report yesterday fromEgan-Jones we read: "JEF has seen a decline of approximately 37.8% per annumover the last couple of years which is disappointing." Well aside from the absurdityof saying "approximately" when one drills down to a tenth of a percent, while at thesame time leaving "last couple of years" totally vague, the number is just flat outwrong by a country mile.
JEF had record net revenues of $2.1B in 2009, up 36% from the prior record in2007; in the 11-month year ended Nov. 2010 revenues were $2.2B (i.e., soabout $2.4B annualized); and for the first three quarters of 2011, revenues arerunning at a $2.7B annual rate.
The Egan-Jones report shows total revenues of $524M for full-year 2010 and$897M for 2011. Now that's what we call a miss. The $524M incidentally is theexact same number as 3Q11. Another peculiar aspect of the analysis is thatEgan-Jones' downgrade note from 11/2 showed 2010 revenue of $680M.
Try as we might, we could not reverse engineer a 37.8% decline rate to figureout what the "couple of years" time-frame was. The report also claimed that"operating margin fell to 0.0% for the fiscal year ended 2010. In fact JEF earned$397M on $2.2B of revs which we calculate to be 18.1%.
The report also bizarrely projects JEF's assets to increase from $45B today to$67B by fiscal year-end, to $102B in 2012 and to $153B in 2013. All analystsmake an occasional numerical mistake, but these numbers are so grotesquelywrong they should immediately jump off the page to anyone remotely familiar with the numbers.
The report's main contention is that JEF needs to reduce its assets by $5B andraise $1B of equity or face a downgrade from them. Every analyst is entitled tohis or her opinion, but we doubt that the market will pay much heed given thegross miscalculations we see in this report.
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