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6.5
Logistic Growth Model
Years
Bears
Greg Kelly, Hanford High School, Richland, Washington
We have used the exponential growth equation
to represent population growth.
0
9
0 =
%he exponential growth equation occurs when the rate of
growth is proportional to the amount present.
f we use ! to represent the population, the differential
equation becomes:
/!
!
/9
=
%he constant is called the relative growth rate.
/ /! /9

!
=

%he population growth model becomes:

0
9
! !0 =
However, real-life populations do not increase forever.
%here is some limiting factor such as food, living space or
waste disposal.
%here is a maximum population, or carrying capacity, .
A more realistic model is the logistic growth model where
growth rate is proportional to both the amount present (!)
and the fraction of the carrying capacity that remains: !

%he equation then becomes:

/! !
!
/9

=

' '
ur book writes it this way:
Logistics Differential Equation
)
/!
! !
/9
=
We can solve this differential equation to find the logistics
growth model.

!artial
Fractions
Logistics Differential Equation
)
/!
! !
/9
=
)
1
/! /9
! !
=

)
1
! ! ! !
= +

)
1 ! ! = +
1 ! ! = +
1 =
1

=
0 ! ! = +
! ! =
=
1

=
1 1 1
/! /9
! !

+ =

' '
)
ln ln ! ! 9 = +
ln
!
9
!
= +

Logistics Differential Equation
)
/!
! !
/9
=
)
1
/! /9
! !
=

1 1 1
/! /9
! !

+ =

' '
)
ln ln ! ! 9 = +
ln
!
9
!
= +

9
!
0
!
+
=

9
!
0
!

=
1
9

0
!

=
1
9

0
!

= +

Logistics Differential Equation

9
!
0
!
+
=

9
!
0
!

=
1
9

0
!

=
1
9

0
!

= +
1
9

!
0

=
+
1
9

!
0 0

=
+

09 0

=
1
9

!
0

=
+

Logistics Growth Model

1
9

!
0

=
+

Example:
Logistic Growth Model
%en grizzly bears were introduced to a national park 10
years ago. %here are 23 bears in the park at the present
time. %he park can support a maximum of 100 bears.
Assuming a logistic growth model, when will the bear
population reach 50? 75? 100?

%en grizzly bears were introduced to a national park 10

years ago. %here are 23 bears in the park at the present
time. %he park can support a maximum of 100 bears.
Assuming a logistic growth model, when will the bear
population reach 50? 75? 100?
1
9

!
0

=
+
100 =
0
10 ! =
10
23 ! =

1
9

!
0

=
+
100 =
0
10 ! =
10
23 ! =
0
100
10
1 0
=
+
100
10
1
=
+
10 10 100 + =
10 90 =
9 =
At time zero, the population is 10.
100
1 9
9
!
0

=
+

1
9

!
0

=
+
100 =
0
10 ! =
10
23 ! =
After 10 years, the population is 23.
100
1 9
9
!
0

=
+
10
100
23
1 9

0

=
+
10
100
1 9
23

+ =
10
77
9
23

=
10
0.371981

=
10 0.988913 =
0.098891 =
0.1
100
1 9
9
!
0

=
+

0.1
100
1 9
9
!
0

=
+
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. !f the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
Years
Bears
We can graph
this equation
and use "trace
to find the
solutions.
y=50 at 22 years
y=75 at 33 years
y=100 at 75 years
6