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Jeffers PEAR Proposition Critique Post

Jeffers PEAR Proposition Critique Post

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Published by Bryan J Williams
A post I wrote that critically addresses some of the arguments presented in Stanley Jeffers' article "The PEAR Proposition: Fact or Fallacy?", which appeared in the May-June 2006 issue of The Skeptical Inquirer.
A post I wrote that critically addresses some of the arguments presented in Stanley Jeffers' article "The PEAR Proposition: Fact or Fallacy?", which appeared in the May-June 2006 issue of The Skeptical Inquirer.

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Published by: Bryan J Williams on Nov 30, 2011
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11/30/2011

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[onnodez2 Bmhhmyz VMDY Vylvlzoqolg Jyoqot}m Vlzq 4
Eozymvymzmgqogk qcm VMDY Vylvlzoqolg<
D Jyoqot}m lh Zqdgnm Bmhhmyz‟ Dyqojnm „Qcm VMDYVylvlzoqolg2 Hdjq ly Hdnndj<―
Iydg [onnodez
PQcoz oz d vlzq O {ylqm hly Eo`m [onzlg‟z Vzo Zljomq kyl}v lg _dcll og Dvyon lh 9668. {cojc cdz immg ymxozma dga}vadqma' Oq jyoqojdnn daaymzzmz zlem lh qcm dyk}emgqz vymzmgqma og Bmhhmyz‟ dyqojnm. {cojc dvvmdyma og qcm Ed%B}gm9668 ozz}m lh 
Qcm Z`mvqojdn Ogt}oymy 
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Hyle 4?;? ql 966;. qcm Vyogjmqlg Mgkogmmyogk Dglednomz Ymzmdyjc #VMDY/ Ndilydqly og qcmZjclln lh Mgkogmmyogk dga Dvvnoma Zjomgjm dq Vyogjmqlg ]goxmyzoq cda vylxoama qcmvdydvzjclnlkojdn dga jlgzjol}zgmzz ymzmdyjc jlee}goqomz {oqc zlem lh qcm elzq msqmgzoxm dgayoklyl}zn%jlgqylnnma msvmyoemgqz ymndqogk ql
c}edg%edjcogm dglednomz
. ly {cdq oz dnzl `gl{gdz
 vzjcl`ogmzoz
#V@. ly elym jleelgn. „eoga lxmy edqqmy―/' Oq {dz lgm lh qcm lgn djdameoj%dhhonodqma ndilydqlyomz {oqcog qcm ]goqma Zqdqmz ql jlgqog}l}zn cdxm dg djqoxm ymzmdyjc vylkydeymndqma ql vdydvzjclnlk. d vylkyde qcdq dnzl ogjn}ama ymzmdyjc lg kmlkydvcojdn ymelqmvmyjmvqolg #dnzl `gl{g dz ymelqm xom{ogk/' Og 966=. VMDY Aoymjqly Ylimyq Bdcg dga NdilydqlyEdgdkmy Iymgad A}ggm cda v}inozcma dg dyqojnm og qcm
 Bl}ygdn lh Zjomgqohoj Msvnlydqolg
mgqoqnma„Qcm VMDY Vylvlzoqolg.― og {cojc qcm ymqydjma qcm cozqly lh qcm VMDY Ndi og zlem amqdon'
4
 [conm qcoz dyqojnm cda cokcnokcqma edg lh VMDY‟z glqdinm hogaogkz. oq {dz dnzl qcm hlj}z lh djyoqot}m i Zqdgnm Bmhhmyz #d vylhmzzly lh vczojz dga dzqylgle dq _ly` ]goxmyzoq og Jdgdad/.{cojc dvvmdyma og qcm Ed%B}gm 9668 ozz}m lh 
Qcm Z`mvqojdn Ogt}oymy 
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9
Og vdyqoj}ndy. qcm hlj}z lh Bmhhmyz‟ jyoqot}m oz lg VMDY‟z V@%ymndqma msvmyoemgqz }zogk ydgale mxmgq kmgmydqlyz #YMKz/.{oqc qcm jndoe imogk edam qcdq „… d jnlzm msdeogdqolg lh qcmoy vyoedy ydgale mxmgq kmgmydqlyP
zoj
U jdnnz qcm adqd ogql t}mzqolg― #Bmhhmyz. 9668. v' =1/'Cmym O {ozc ql vymzmgq d „jyoqot}m lh qcm jyoqot}m― qcdq daaymzzmz Bmhhmyz‟ jyoqojdn jleemgqzdga zcl{z {dz og {cojc qcm ed im ogdjj}ydqm ly eoznmdaogk dil}q qcm V@%ymndqma msvmyoemgqzjlga}jqma i VMDY' I}q imhlym alogk zl. oq oz oevmydqoxm ql hoyzq vylxoam d iyomh dga zoevnohomaogqyla}jqolg ql qclzm msvmyoemgqz hly ymdamyz {cl ed im }ghdeonody {oqc qcme'
Qcm VMDY YMK Msvmyoemgqz2 D Iyomh Ogqyla}jqolg
Ql zq}a qcm lzqmgzoinm ogqmydjqolg imq{mmg eoga dga edqqmy. qcm VMDY kyl}v cdajlga}jqma d zmyomz lh msvmyoemgqz lxmy d 49%mdy vmyola }zogk qcmoy „imgjcedy`― YMK. d j}zqle%i}onq amxojm qcdq }zmz d jleemyjodnn dxdondinm mnmjqylgoj glozm zl}yjm ql vyla}jm d ydgale zmyomzlh iogdy ioqz #o'm'. d zmyomz lh „4―z dga „6―z/' Dz d jlgxmgomgq dga hdeonody emqdvcly. {m jdgqcog` lh qcm YMK‟z emqcla lh kmgmydqogk ydgale g}eimyz dz imogk dgdnlkl}z ql ymvmdqmanhnovvogk dg mnmjqylgoj „jlog― ogql qcm doy. dga qcmg zmmogk {cmqcmy „cmdaz― #d „4―/ ly „qdonz― #d„6―/ jlemz }v lg mdjc hnov. {oqc qcm vylidionoq lh mdjc l}qjlem imogk =6,=6' Qcm l}qjlemz lh qcm YMK‟z mnmjqylgoj „jlog hnovz― {mym j}e}ndqoxmn ymvymzmgqma og qcm VMDY msvmyoemgqz i dydgalen elxogk nogm aozvndma lg d jlev}qmy zjymmg. {cojc elxma }v ly al{g idzma lg{cmqcmy qcm YMK cda vyla}jma „cmdaz― ly „qdonz.― ymzvmjqoxmn'Oamdnn. }gamy lyaogdy joyj}ezqdgjmz. qcm YMK {l}na im msvmjqma lg dxmydkm ql vyla}jmdg mt}dn idndgjm lh „cmdaz― dga „qdonz― lxmy d nlgk zmyomz lh mnmjqylgoj „jlog hnovz'― Qcm kldn lh dvmyzlg vdyqojovdqogk og dg YMK msvmyoemgq oz ql }vzmq qcoz idndgjm i qyogk ql oghn}mgjm qcm YMK
 
[onnodez2 Bmhhmyz VMDY Vylvlzoqolg Jyoqot}m Vlzq 9
ql vyla}jm elym „cmdaz― #ly elym „qdonz―/ qcdg {l}na im msvmjqma i jcdgjm dnlgm' Dz dg ogaoymjq{d lh djcomxogk qcoz kldn. qcm vdyqojovdgq }z}dnn hlj}zma coz,cmy dqqmgqolg lg qcm elxogk nogmaozvnd dga dqqmevqma ql emgqdnn {onn qcm nogm ql jlgzozqmgqn elxm og lgm ogqmgama aoymjqolg'Qcmym {mym qcymm aoymjqolgz lh ogqmgqolg qcdq d vdyqojovdgq doema hly og qcm VMDY msvmyoemgqz.{oqc mdjc imogk dnqmygdqmn dzzokgma og qcm jl}yzm lh dg msvmyoemgqdn zmzzolg2
4'/ [cmg dz`ma ql doe cokc #„CO.― qcm aoymjqolg dzzljodqma {oqc vyla}jogk elym „cmdaz―/. qcmvdyqojovdgq qyoma ql {onnh}nn elxm qcm nogm og dg
}v{dya 
aoymjqolg d{d hyle msvmjqma ydgalegmzz09'/ [cmg dz`ma ql doe nl{ #„NL.― dzzljodqma {oqc vyla}jogk elym „qdonz―/. qcm vdyqojovdgq qyoma ql{onnh}nn elxm qcm nogm og d
al{g{dya 
aoymjqolg d{d hyle msvmjqdqolg0:'/ [cmg dz`ma ql doe hly d idzmnogm #„IN.― dzzljodqma {oqc edogqdogogk d zqmda idndgjm lh „cmdaz― dga „qdonz―/. qcm vdyqojovdgq qyoma ql {onnh}nn ed`m qcm nogm
zqd nmxmn
dyl}ga msvmjqdqolg. {oqcl}qcdxogk oq elxm jlgzozqmgqn og dg lgm aoymjqolg'
Qcm lxmydnn ymz}nqz lh VMDY‟z 49%mdy msvmyoemgqdn vylkyde {oqc qcm imgjcedy` YMKz dymzcl{g kydvcojdnn og Hok}ym 4 imnl{ #dadvqma hyle Bdcg mq dn'. 4??;/' Qcm ogaojdqm qcdq. ydqcmyqcdg imogk v}ymn ydgale dz msvmjqma. qcm YMK adqd jlghlyema {mnn ql qcm {onnh}n ogqmgqolgz lh qcm ?4 xln}gqmmyz {cl vdyqojovdqma og qcm msvmyoemgqz' Mxmg {cmg qcm vdyqojovdgqz qyoma qledogqdog d zqmda idzmnogm. qcmym zqonn dvvmdyma ql im zlem amkymm lh oghn}mgjm lg qcm YMK adqd'Og jlgqydzq. jlgqyln YMK adqd jlnnmjqma {cmg gl lgm {dz dyl}ga aoa glq zcl{ qcmzm aoymjqolgdnvdqqmygz. ogzqmda imcdxogk v}ymn ydgale dz msvmjqma'
Elym cmdaz0nmzz ydgale
msvmjqdqolg
Elym qdonz0elym ydgalely „gloz―
Hok}ym 4'
D kydvcojdn z}eedy lh qcm ymz}nqz lh VMDY‟z 49%mdy msvmyoemgqdn vylkyde lg c}edg%edjcogmogqmydjqolgz }zogk qcm „imgjcedy`― YMK' Qcm zellqc j}yxma dyjz ymvymzmgq qcm qcymzclna lh zqdqozqojdn zokgohojdgjm#laaz lh 96 ql 4 dkdogzq jcdgjm/' #Dadvqma hyle Hok}ym 9 lh Bdcg mq dn'. 4??;/
 
[onnodez2 Bmhhmyz VMDY Vylvlzoqolg Jyoqot}m Vlzq :
Hyle d zqdqozqojdn zqdgavlogq. qcm lxmydnn ymz}nqz ogaojdqma d xmy zednn i}q cokcnzokgohojdgq mhhmjq qcdq cdz jleiogma laaz del}gqogk ql dil}q := qyonnolg ql lgm dkdogzq jcdgjm.{cojc zqylgkn ogaojdqmz qcdq qcm aoymjqolgdn vdqqmygz zmmg og qcm msvmyoemgqdn adqd {mym glqcdvvmgogk i jcdgjm jlogjoamgjm'
Zlemqcogk
{dz dvvdymgqn oghn}mgjogk qcm imcdxoly lh qcmYMKz'
 Aohhmymgjmz imq{mmg qcm Msvmyoemgqz lh Bmhhmyz dga VMDY
Dhqmy vylxoaogk d iyomh ymxom{ lh qcm VMDY YMK msvmyoemgqz og qcm ogqyla}jqly zmjqolglh coz jyoqot}m. Bmhhmyz #9668. vv' == ‚ =8/ ydozmz zlem ozz}mz ymkdyaogk qcm emqclaz dgavyljma}ymz }zma i VMDY' Cm imkogz i glqogk qcdq cm cdz jlga}jqma zmxmydn V@%ymndqmamsvmyoemgqz lh coz l{g. }z}dnn og jlnndilydqolg {oqc lqcmyz' Qcm ymz}nqz liqdogma i qcm VMDYNdi cda dvvdymgqn elqoxdqma coe ql v}yz}m qcmzm ogamvmgamgq msvmyoemgqz. i}q }gno`m VMDY‟z.edg lh coz msvmyoemgqdn ymz}nqz dvvmdy ql im jlgzozqmgq {oqc jcdgjm. dga qc}z. cdxm immgjlgzoamyma ndykmn }gz}jjmzzh}n' Dz d ymz}nq. Bmhhmyz‟ ymz}nqz cdxm immg xom{ma {oqcog zlemz`mvqojdn joyjnmz dz mxoamgjm qcdq jdzqz zmyol}z al}iq lg qcm VMDY ymz}nqz'Cl{mxmy. oq oz oevlyqdgq ql glqm cmym qcdq Bmhhmyz‟ msvmyoemgqz aohhmyma edy`man hyleVMDY‟z og zmxmydn ymzvmjqz' Hly ogzqdgjm. ydqcmy qcdg ogoqodnn qyogk ql ymvyla}jm qcm VMDYymz}nqz og dg aoymjq {d og zlem lh coz mdyn msvmyoemgqz i dz`ogk coz vdyqojovdgqz ql oghn}mgjmdg YMK. Bmhhmyz cda dz`ma qcme ql qy dga oghn}mgjm d elym jlevnms qdykmq2 qcm aohhydjqolg vdqqmygvyla}jma i z}idqleoj vdyqojnmz klogk qcyl}kc qcm jndzzoj zogknm% dga al}inm%znoq msvmyoemgqdnzmq%}v }zma og vczojz #Bmhhmyz ( Znldg. 4??90 Oiozlg ( Bmhhmyz. 4??3/' Dnqcl}kc lgm jdg vlogq l}qqcdq dg YMK dga qcm vdyqojnmz klogk qcyl}kc qcm znoq zmq%}v dym zoeondy og vyogjovnm imjd}zm qcmilqc ogxlnxm d ydgale vyljmzz
:
. qcm dym cdyan msdjqn jlevdydinm' Dga {conm qcm VMDY Ndiaoa jlga}jq zlem jlgjmvq}dnn zoeondy msvmyoemgqz og qcm vdzq. ogxlnxogk dqqmevqz ql oghn}mgjmqcm hyogkm vdqqmyg imogk vyla}jma i dg ogqmyhmylemqmy #Bdcg. 4?39. vv' 414 ‚ 41:/. qcmzmmsvmyoemgqz {mym glq dz msqmgzoxm ly dz z}jjmzzh}n dz qcm YMK msvmyoemgqz'Dnqcl}kc qcm ymz}nqz og coz zogknm%znoq msvmyoemgq {mym dq jcdgjm. qcm ymz}nqz og Bmhhmyz‟al}inm%znoq msvmyoemgq {mym eosma og d {d qcdq oz z}kkmzqoxm lh dg msvmyoemgqmy mhhmjq' Og qcmndqqmy jdzm #Oiozlg ( Bmhhmyz. 4??3/. qcm zdem msvmyoemgq {dz jlga}jqma zmvdydqmn i Bmhhmyz dq_ly` ]goxmyzoq. dga i qcm VMDY kyl}v dq Vyogjmqlg. }zogk qcm zdem zmq%}v' [cmymdz qcm VMDYxmyzolg lh msvmyoemgq cda liqdogma edykogdnn zokgohojdgq ymz}nqz #{oqc laaz lh dil}q 96 ql 4dkdogzq jcdgjm/. qcm zdem xmyzolg lh qcm msvmyoemgq jlga}jqma i Bmhhmyz cda vyla}jma lgnjcdgjm ymz}nqz'Og qcm lgm msvmyoemgq Bmhhmyz jlga}jqma qcdq cda jlem qcm jnlzmzq ql aoymjqn ymvyla}jogkqcm VMDY YMK msvmyoemgqz #Hymmaedg mq dn'. 966:/. qcm vdyqojovdgqz {mym jlevyozma lh q{lkyl}vz2 lgm {dz d kyl}v lh gm}ylnlkojdn vdqomgqz {cl cda z}hhmyma adedkm ql qcm hylgqdn nlim lh qcmoy iydogz. dga qcm lqcmy {dz d kyl}v lh cmdnqc ogaoxoa}dnz. elzq lh {cle {mym emeimyz lh qcmymzmdyjc zqdhh'
1
Ilqc {mym dz`ma ql qy dga oghn}mgjm qcm adqd vyla}jma i d vlyqdinm YMKliqdogma hyle VMDY' Dnqcl}kc qcm dqqmevqz dq qcm qdz` i qcm cmdnqc ogaoxoa}dnz cda ymz}nqma ogd jcdgjm l}qjlem. lgm lh qcm gm}ylnlkojdn vdqomgqz {dz dinm ql vyla}jm d zokgohojdgq ymz}nq #{oqclaaz lh dil}q 88= ql 4 dkdogzq jcdgjm/' Dga {cmg cm {dz dz`ma ql vdyqojovdqm og d hlnnl{%}vmsvmyoemgq. qcoz zdem vdqomgq z}jjmmama dkdog dq qcm qdz` ql d zokgohojdgq amkymm #laaz lh dil}q 38ql 4 dkdogzq jcdgjm/' Qcoz zmmez ql ogaojdqm qcdq qcmym {dz d elamzq V@ mhhmjq og dq nmdzq vdyq lh qcm adqd'

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