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Into the Exacloud - 21 Nov 2011

Into the Exacloud - 21 Nov 2011

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Published by Bret Swanson
> Why cloud computing requires a major expansion of wireless spectrum and investment > An exaflood update: what Mobile, Video, Big Data, and Cloud mean for network traffic > Plus, a new paradigm for online games, Web video, and cloud software
> Why cloud computing requires a major expansion of wireless spectrum and investment > An exaflood update: what Mobile, Video, Big Data, and Cloud mean for network traffic > Plus, a new paradigm for online games, Web video, and cloud software

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Published by: Bret Swanson on Dec 01, 2011
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“Workers suffering from information overload, andcompanies drowning in the Internet-era exafloodof data? These are good problems indeed,”writes 
New York Times 
technology reporter Steve Lohr,“if you are in the data storage business.”“In a shaky economy,” Lohr continues, “compa-nies are spending cautiously on most things, butcomputer storage in data centers is an exception.The most recent evidence came earlier thismonth, when IDC reported that sales of disk stor-age systems in the second quarter grew morethan 10 percent, to $7.5 billion.“The dollars understate the storage boom, sincethis is an industry working the way technology issupposed to — that is, you get more for less.Measured by the amount of data storage capacity,shipments jumped by 47 percent, compared withthe year-earlier quarter.”Google reports that in 2010 its data centers,where many of these disk drives reside, con-sumed 2.26 terawatt-hours of power – that’s twobillion kW-hours. Thus the opening of its newestdigital warehouse in chilly Hamina, Finland, a$273-million facility meant to take advantage ofthe cold air and seawater to cool its servers.Facebook is building a similar data center inLuleå, Sweden. Data center pioneer Equinix op-erates six million square feet across 98 facilities.Globally, Internet data centers now consume1.5% of all electricity.We have been chronicling the growth of the Inter-net for the last decade, and so these numbers donot surprise, though they still tend to amaze. The
ENTROPY ECONOMICS
> INTERNET TRAFFIC REPORT <
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
Into the Exacloud
>
Why cloud computing requires a major expansion of wireless spectrum and investment 
>
 
An exaflood update: what Mobile, Video, Big Data, and Cloud mean for network traffic 
>
Plus, a new paradigm for online games, Web video, and cloud software 
BRET SWANSON
> November 21, 2011
_________________________________
ENTROPY ECONOMICS LLC > 65 E. CEDAR STREET No. 2 > ZIONSVILLE, INDIANA 46077 USA > 317.663.0509 > ENTROPYECONOMICS.COM
0500000100000015000002000000250000030000003500000
  1  9  9  0  1  9  9  2  1  9  9 4  1  9  9  6  1  9  9  8  2  0  0  0  2  0  0  2  2  0  0 4  2  0  0  6  2  0  0  8  2  0  1  0
Fig. 1 – One Estimate of U.S. Internet Traffic
   t  e  r  a   b  y   t  e  s  p  e  r  m  o  n   t   h
Sources: MINTS, Entropy Economics
 
ever-shifting nature of content, devices, networkarchitectures and capabilities, and digital busi-ness models makes for a truly complex ecosys-tem. In recent years, studies measuring thegrowth of the digital universe have proliferated.Given these new data sources and analyses, wethink it may be useful to update our previous re-ports.
Bottom Line
Very large investments in info-tech infrastruc-ture – including wireless – will need to continuefor years to come.Wireless capacity, coverage, and flexibility is thechief bottleneck that must be addressed – andis today’s chief public policy concern.Driven largely by Web video, network trafficcontinues to grow rapidly and may have accel-erated in the last year or so.Networks are increasing in capacity, reach, andcomplexity, and content companies have be-come Internet infrastructure companies.Broadband connectivity enabled the rise of thecloud, and now the cloud requires ever morebroadband – both wired and wireless.Enormous troves of data, both structured andunstructured, are piling up all over the world.The digital ecosystem, comprised of networks,devices, software, services, and the cloud ischanging fast. Innovations are improving anddisrupting most sectors of life and the economy,including entertainment, education, health, fi-nance, retail, and government, not to mentionour social fabric.The next generation of exacloud services willdeliver unprecedented real-time content andsoftware experiences and impose severe newdemands on network capacity and speed.
Flood of New Traffic Research
At the time we published our initial articles andreports, few others were focused on Internet traf-fic research. University of Minnesota professorAndrew Odlyzko was the most prominent, and hisMINTSgroup continues to collect and analyzetraffic data from numerous sources around theworld. Since that time, many academic and indus-try groups began measuring thedigital universe:Cicso publishes semiannualVisual NetworkingIndexreports, projecting traffic for the next fouror five years.
ENTROPY ECONOMICS
!
2
ENTROPY ECONOMICS LLC > 65 E. CEDAR STREET No. 2 > ZIONSVILLE, INDIANA 46077 USA > 317.663.0509 > ENTROPYECONOMICS.COM
1101001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,000
  1  9  9  0  1  9  9  2  1  9  9 4  1  9  9  6  1  9  9  8  2  0  0  0  2  0  0  2  2  0  0 4  2  0  0  6  2  0  0  8  2  0  1  0
Fig. 2 – One Estimate of U.S. Internet Traffic
   t  e  r  a   b  y   t  e  s  p  e  r  m  o  n   t   h
semi-log scale
Sources: MINTS, Entropy Economics
 
Akamai now publishes a quarterly State of theInternet report, which highlights security threatsand traffic trends and ranks download speedsby region, nation, and city.In 2009, Craig Labovitz and U. Michigan/AtlasObservatory colleagues used a large, global,two-year sample of real Internet traffic to docu-ment (in areport andpaper) the changing archi- tecture of the Internet and its key sources andtransmitters of traffic. UC-San Diego renewed the well-known “HowMuch Information?” study, previously conductedat Berkeley.EMC sponsors an annual series of IDC “Ex-panding Digital Universe” reports.The journal
Science 
published astudyof “TheWorld’s Technological Capacity to Store, Com-municate, and Compute Information.”McKinsey recently issued a “Big Data” study,linking the exaflood with specific beneficial eco-nomic impacts in health care, geolocation serv-ices, retail, and government.World Wide Web pioneer Tim Berners-Lee justreceived a million-dollar grant from Google to“index” the entire Web, an attempt to reallymeasure how much content is connected to theInternet. The list goes on.
Retrospective
Looking back on the themes we thought woulddrive the Net may be a useful way to update andrevise our quantitative and qualitative projections.In 2003, we said Web video, based on in-creased deployment and adoption of realbroadband access networks (see Fig. 3), wouldtake off like a rocket and result in a “new surgeof Internet traffic.” Today, YouTube alone re-ceives 48hoursof video uploads each minute, or eight years of content uploaded every day. Itstreams three billion videos per day. Playbacksin 2010 reached 700 billion.In 2007, we said YouTube videos would in-creasingly be HD. Today, 10% of YouTube vid-eos are HD.We expected the Mobile Revolution would sig-nificantly boost the time that people spend bothcreating and consuming content. YouTube re-ported that in 2010 its mobile video playbacksincreased 200%, and most sources agreed thatwireless data traffic overall grew more than100%.We said that as part of the Mobile Revolution,the number and diversity of mobile device form-factors would grow. The rapid and widespreadadoption of the iPad and other tablets is justone manifestation of this projection.In 2003, we wrote that inexpensive digital imag-ing chips (digital cameras) would increasinglybe embedded in “every PC, laptop, Xbox,PlayStation, mobile phone, ATM, baby nursery,and auto bumper. Digital cameras will covermost angles of most amateur athletic, educa-tional, theatrical, and family events.” The ubiq-uity of cameras in mobile phones especially, wewrote, would result in a surge in wireless datatraffic. Apple just reported that more photos up-loaded to Flickr have been taken with theiPhone 4 than with any other camera or device.Facebook reports it receives 100 million newphotos per day and now hosts around 100 bil-lion photos. The photo-sharing app Instagramgrew from 80 beta users a year ago to 10 mil-lion today.In 2007, we said Netflix would move from aDVD-in-the-mail model to an Internet streamingmodel, and that these streams would account
ENTROPY ECONOMICS
!
3
ENTROPY ECONOMICS LLC > 65 E. CEDAR STREET No. 2 > ZIONSVILLE, INDIANA 46077 USA > 317.663.0509 > ENTROPYECONOMICS.COM
 YouTube Receives 48 Hours of Up-loaded Video Each Minute
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Source: YouTube

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