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US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Report (2011)

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Report (2011)

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Published by wmartin46

Executive summary

The projections in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) focus on the factors that shape
the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout
the projections, the AEO2011 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2011 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 57 sensitivity cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy.Key results highlighted in AEO2011 include strong growth in shale gas production, growing use of natural gas and renewables in electric power generation, declining reliance on imported liquid fuels, and projected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions even in the absence of new policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.AEO2011 also includes in-depth discussions on topics of special interest that may affect the energy outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and regulations; discussion of world oil supply and price trends shaped by changes in demand from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or in supply
available from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; an examination of the potential impacts of proposed revisions
to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles and proposed new standards for heavy-duty vehicles; the
impact of a series of updates to appliance standard alone or in combination with revised building codes; the potential impact on
natural gas and crude oil production of an expanded offshore resource base; prospects for shale gas; the impact of cost uncertainty
on construction of new electric power plants; the economics of carbon capture and storage; and the possible impact of regulations on the electric power sector under consideration by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some of the highlights from those discussions are mentioned in this Executive Summary. Readers interested in more detailed analyses and discussions should refer to the “Issues in focus” section of this report.

Executive summary

The projections in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) focus on the factors that shape
the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout
the projections, the AEO2011 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2011 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 57 sensitivity cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy.Key results highlighted in AEO2011 include strong growth in shale gas production, growing use of natural gas and renewables in electric power generation, declining reliance on imported liquid fuels, and projected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions even in the absence of new policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.AEO2011 also includes in-depth discussions on topics of special interest that may affect the energy outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and regulations; discussion of world oil supply and price trends shaped by changes in demand from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or in supply
available from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; an examination of the potential impacts of proposed revisions
to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles and proposed new standards for heavy-duty vehicles; the
impact of a series of updates to appliance standard alone or in combination with revised building codes; the potential impact on
natural gas and crude oil production of an expanded offshore resource base; prospects for shale gas; the impact of cost uncertainty
on construction of new electric power plants; the economics of carbon capture and storage; and the possible impact of regulations on the electric power sector under consideration by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some of the highlights from those discussions are mentioned in this Executive Summary. Readers interested in more detailed analyses and discussions should refer to the “Issues in focus” section of this report.

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Published by: wmartin46 on Dec 03, 2011
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For further information . . .
The
 Annual Energy Outlook 2011
was prepared by the U.S. Energy Inormation Administration (EIA), under the direction o John J.Conti ( john.conti@eia.gov, 202-586-2222), Assistant Administrator o Energy Analysis; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202/586-1284), Co-Acting Director, Oce o Integrated and International Energy Analysis, and Team Leader, Analysis IntegrationTeam; Joseph A. Beamon( joseph.beamon@eia.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Oce o Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; A. Michael Schaal (michael.schaal@eia.gov, 202/586-5590), Director, Oce o Petroleum, Gas, and Biouel Analysis; Joseph C. Ayoub ( joseph.ayoub@eia.gov, 202-586-8994), Co-Acting Director, Oce o Integrated and International Energy Analysis, and James T. Turnure ( james.turnure@eia.gov, 202/586-1762), Director, Oce o Energy Consumption and Eciency Analysis. For ordering inormation and questions on other energy statistics available rom EIA, please contact the EIA Energy InormationCenter at:EIA Energy Inormation Center, EI-30U.S. Energy Inormation AdministrationForrestal BuildingWashington, DC 20585Telephone: 202/586-8800 E-mail:inoctr@eia.gov FAX: 202/586-0727 Website:www.eia.gov/ Specic questions about the inormation in this report may be directed to:General questions ..................................................... Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202-586-1284)National energy modeling system ........................ Dan H. Skelly (daniel.skelly@eia.gov, 202-586-2222)Executive summary .................................................. Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202/586-1284)Economic activity ...................................................... Kay A. Smith (kay.smith@eia.gov, 202/586-1132)World oil prices .......................................................... John L. Staub ( john.staub@eia.gov, 202-586-3005)International oil production .................................... Emre M. Yucel (emre.yucel@eia.gov, 202/586-3005)International oil demand ......................................... Linda E. Doman (linda.doman@eia.gov, 202/586-1041)Residential demand .................................................. Owen Comstock (owen.comstock@eia.gov, 202/586-4752) Commercial demand ................................................ Erin E. Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.gov, 202/586-4791)Industrial demand ..................................................... Elizabeth D. Sendich (elizabeth.sendich@eia.gov, 202/586-7145)Transportation demand ........................................... John D. Maples ( john.maples@eia.gov, 202/586-1757)Electricity generation, capacity ............................. Jef S. Jones ( jefrey.jones@eia.gov, 202/586-2038) Electricity generation, emissions .......................... Michael T. Lef (michael.lef@eia.gov, 202/586-1297)Electricity prices ........................................................ Lori B. Aniti (lori.aniti@eia.gov, 202/586-2867) Nuclear energy ........................................................... Laura K. Martin (laura.martin@eia.gov, 202/586-1494)Renewable energy ..................................................... Chris R. Namovicz (chris.namovicz@eia.gov, 202/586-7120)Oil and natural gas production .............................. Dana Van Wagener (dana.vanwagener@eia.gov, 202/586-4725)Liqueed natural gas markets ................................ Phyllis D. Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.gov, 202-586-9592)Oil rening and markets .......................................... William S. Brown (william.brown@eia.gov, 202/586-8181)Ethanol and biodiesel ............................................... Mac J. Statton (mac.statton@eia.gov, 202-586-7105)Coal supply and prices ............................................. Michael L. Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.gov, 202/586-2136) Carbon dioxide emissions ....................................... Diane R. Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.gov, 202/586-2415)The
 Annual Energy Outlook 2011
is available on the EIA website atwww.eia.gov/orecasts/aeo/. Assumptions underlying theprojections, tables o regional results, and other detailed results will also be available, atwww.eia.gov/orecasts/aeo/assumptions/.Model documentation reports or the National Energy Modeling System are available at websitewww.eia.gov/analysis/model-documentation.cmand will be updated or the
 Annual Energy Outlook 2011
during 2011.Other contributors to the report include Justine Barden, Joseph Benneche, Tina Bowers, Phillip Budzik, Stephen Calopedis, NicholasChase, John Cochener, Michael Cole, Margie Daymude, Robert Eynon, Adrian Geagla, Peter Gross, James Hewlett, Behjat Hojjati,Sean Hill, Kevin Jarzomski, Stephanie Kette, Paul Kondis, Andy Kydes, Marie LaRiviere, Thomas Lee, Perry Lindstrom, Lauren Mayne,David Peterson, Chetha Phang, Eugene Reiser, Mark Schipper, Joanne Shore, Robert Smith, John Staub, Russell Tarver, DiwakarVashishat, Steven Wade, and Peggy Wells.
 
Annual Energy Outlook 2011
With Projections to 2035
April 2011
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Ofce o Integrated and International Energy AnalysisU.S. Department o EnergyWashington, DC 20585
This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Inormation Administration (EIA), the statistical andanalytical agency within the U.S. Department o Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and orecastsare independent o approval by any other ocer or employee o the United States Government. Theviews in this report thereore should not be construed as representing those o the Department oEnergy or other Federal agencies.
This publication is on the WEB at:www.eia.gov/orecasts/aeo/

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