CBS News/New York Times PollFor release: Tuesday December 6, 20116:30 PM EST
The Iowa Caucuses: Key Voter Groups and Issues
November 30- December 5, 2011
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Tea-Party backers (who make up about half of Iowa caucus-goers) are strongly behindNewt Gingrich. Gingrich has a high favorable rating among this group as well, and doesvery well on presidential qualities such as handling an international crisis andpreparation for the presidency. He is also widely seen as electable.
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White evangelical voters who plan to attend the caucuses also back Gingrich, and viewhim in much the same way (although less strongly) as Tea Party supporters. Among thisgroup, Michele Bachmann tops the list as the candidate who best represents theirvalues.
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After losing the state in the 2008 caucuses, Romney has spent little time or money inIowa this year. Romney leads among moderates, but Gingrich far outstrips him amongconservatives. Conservatives outnumber moderate caucus-goers by two to one.
Tea Party Supporters
Self-described Tea-Party supporters’ strong backing of Newt Gingrich is a key factor propellinghim to the top of the Republican field in Iowa. 41% of Tea Party supporters favor Gingrich forthe nomination, far ahead of Ron Paul in second place at 14%. Mitt Romney, who placessecond among caucus-goers overall, comes in fifth behind Gingrich, Paul, Rick Perry, andMichele Bachmann.Those who say they are not supporters of the Tea Party are more divided in their choice.Among this group, Romney (27%) has a lead over Gingrich (22%) and Paul (18%).
Iowa Caucus-goers: Tea Party Supporters
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)All Tea Party Not Tea PartyNewt Gingrich 31% 41% 22%Mitt Romney 17 10 27Ron Paul 16 14 18Rick Perry 11 12 9Michele Bachmann 9 11 6Rick Santorum 4 5 3Jon Huntsman 1 * 1
(*) denotes less than 0.5%
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Even though more Tea Party supporters prefer a candidate whose experience has been mostlyoutside of Washington, nearly seven in 10 have favorable views of Newt Gingrich, and they givehim especially high marks on many candidate qualities. Romney, on the other hand, receivesnet unfavorable ratings among this group and falls short on many key attributes.
Views of the Candidates
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers who support the Tea Party)
Favorable Not favorable Undecided/don’t knowGingrich 68% 14 17Perry 44% 29 28Paul 43% 35 22Romney 39% 44 17On electability, Gingrich (45%) beats Romney (19%) handily among Tea Partiers. 56% of thisgroup says Gingrich is best prepared for the job of president, and 54% trust him most to handlea crisis – far outdistancing any other candidate.
Candidate Qualities: Which Candidate is…?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers who support the Tea Party)Most Prepared Best Handle Best Chance toto be President Int’l crisis Beat ObamaGingrich 56% 54% 45%Romney 11 8 19Paul 11 10 6Perry 9 7 7Tea Party supporters also see Gingrich as the candidate best able to handle the issue of illegalimmigration. However, like caucus-goers overall, Tea Partiers are less likely to say Gingrichshares their values. Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum all do better than Gingrich on this question.
Which Candidate Best Represents Your Values?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers who support the Tea Party)
Bachmann 24%Paul 16Santorum 14Gingrich 12Perry 11Romney 9Looking ahead to the general election, 56% of Tea Party supporters would be enthusiasticabout Gingrich as their candidate. 39% would be enthusiastic about Perry as the nominee;enthusiasm for Romney and Paul is lower, at 33%.
Enthusiasm if He/She Became Nominee Next Year
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers who support the Tea Party)
Gingrich Paul Romney PerryWould enthusiastically support 56% 33% 33% 39%Would support with reservations 27 29 26 31Would support only because nominee 10 24 26 21Would not support 7 13 15 8
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Evangelicals
White evangelicals’ choice for the nomination is Newt Gingrich: a third of white evangelicalschoose him (34%), followed by Ron Paul (17%), Rick Perry (16%), Michele Bachmann (12%),and Mitt Romney (10%).
Iowa Caucus-goers: White Evangelicals
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)All White EvangelicalsNewt Gingrich 31% 34%Mitt Romney 17 10Ron Paul 16 17Rick Perry 11 16Michele Bachmann 9 12Rick Santorum 4 7Jon Huntsman 1 *
(*) denotes less than 0.5%
Six in 10 white evangelicals have a favorable view of Gingrich. Paul and Perry receive netfavorable evaluations from evangelicals.
Views of the Candidates
(Among White Evangelical Republican Caucus-Goers)Favorable Not favorable Undecided/don’t knowGingrich 60% 18 22Perry 45% 28 27Paul 41% 34 24Romney 31% 43 26Like caucus-goers overall, white evangelicals view Gingrich as the most prepared candidate,best able to handle an international crisis and most qualified to be commander-in-chief. 37% sayhe has the best chance to beat Obama, compared to 24% who pick Romney.
Candidate Qualities: Which Candidate is…?
(Among White Evangelical Republican Caucus-Goers)Most Prepared Best Handle Best Chance toto be President Int’l crisis Beat ObamaGingrich 48% 48% 37%Perry 14 11 12Romney 12 9 24Paul 11 11 6As with Tea Party supporters, Romney does not perform very well on many key attributesamong evangelicals. Just 6% think Romney understands their needs and problems, and only12% think he is best prepared for the presidency. While Romney has been touting his businessexperience, only 11% think he is the candidate best able to handle the economy -- trailingGingrich, Paul and Perry.
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