Reaching out: Barack Obama at a campaign event in Richmond, Virginia onTuesday. Opinion polls say he will take 60 per cent or more of votes amongthose aged below 30

Below: White House onlineGrandchild campaign:Schlep in search ofFloridaswing

Young and restless

ByJurek MartininWashingtonPublished: October 23 2008 19:34 |Lastupdated:October23 2008 19:34

James Carville once famously said: “Showme a candidate who depends on the youthvote and I’ll show you a loser.” Historically,Bill Clinton’s election strategist was deadright, but the dictum may not apply this year.Just as the colour of his skin couldconceivably deny Barack Obama the WhiteHouse, the support of those under the age of30 could put himthere with room to spare.There are 44myoung Americans of theso-called “millennial generation” eligible tovote – about 21 per cent of the electorate.But it is not easy to get a handle on howmany of themwill cast a ballot. The StudentPublic Interest Research Group, an activistorganisation, has gone so far as to predict a70 per cent turnout, compared with justunder 50 per cent of 2004. That may behigh, but polls by Gallup and others all suggest it will split at least 60-40 in Barack Obama’s favour.With just 11 days to go, by no means all under-30s have settled on their choice – even among those whoinsist they will definitely vote, such as Kathleen Durkin fromChicago. Aformer intern at Nato in Brussels towhom foreign policy really matters, she leans a bit more right than left but takes

Colin Powell’sendorsement of Mr Obama

very seriously because she respects the former secretary of state. But, sheadds: “It only makes it harder for me to decide.”Peak turnout among the under-30s was 55 per cent in 1972, the firstelection after the voting age was lowered from21 to 18. That had slipped toabout 40 per cent by 2000 but its rise four years ago reflected the intensityof a campaign, held as the war in Iraq became bogged down, that produceda record overall participation.This year saw a surge in youth interest in the Democratic primaries, much of it generated by enthusiasmforthe Obama candidacy. Younger supporters carried himto his critical first victory in the opening Iowa contestand sustained himthereafter, especially in the states holding caucuses rather than fully fledged primaries.Turnout generally was at least double that of four years ago. Some of the crowds he drew, over 70,000 atone open air rally in Portland, Oregon, not exactly a megalopolis, were unprecedented. Just last weekend,100,000 gathered to listen to himin Kansas City.His campaign, with more than 700 Youth for Obama chapters, has focused heavily on registering the youngto vote. It has helped, too, that the Obama campaign “owns” the internet in ways that the Republican JohnMcCain’s does not. That has clearly helped fundraising fromthe young (the average overall donation todate, of $86, would not break even a student’s budget) as well as disseminating the political message andorganising events.There have been other official and unofficial deft uses of new media. Hiscampaign was able to insert messages into a popular X-boxcar racingvideo game. Rock the Vote, the MTV-based pressure group, says it hasregistered at least 2.3m new voters, more than double the level of fouryears ago. On Facebook, Mr Obama has more than 2m “friends”, nearlyfour times the number of Mr McCain.

ANALYSIS

COMMENT

1 of 4

Two Obama fans to whom the Financial Times has spoken are Kate Resnevic from Rhode Island andElaine Crooks fromColorado. Just like the undecided Ms Durkin, they are college graduates now working inWashington and say they will definitely vote. Ms Crooks is registered to vote in suburban Virginia, the othertwo back home. A1979 Supreme Court ruling allowed students to register to vote either in their home stateor where they attend school, but some obstacles have been thrown in their path.In both Virginia and Colorado, pivotal swing states, arguments raged over whether the parents ofout-of-state students registering on campus would still be able to claimthemas dependants for tax purpose(they can); Indiana requires state-issued identification documents to register, which many students do nothave; others ask for different proofs of residence, such as utility bills, which prompted Oberlin College inOhio to issue “receipts” for zero dollars to any undergraduate who asked for them.Having navigated such obstacles, Ms Crooks is looking forward to November 4, saying: “I like the vibe.” MsResnevic has already voted, making up for 2004 when her absentee ballot reached her in Germany toolate. The three get most of their political news fromthe internet, though Ms Durkin wistfully remembers thenewspaper and morning coffee regime she used to enjoy in college and in Europe.None of them is consumed with concerns that the current economic woes will blight their lives in the longterm. Ms Crooks says her existing student loans are so “dauntingly high” that she might just as well add thecost of graduate school to them(“At least I won’t be paying any interest on either while I’mthere”). Free ofstudent debt thanks to her parents, Ms Resnevic shrugs at the thought of the $100,000 (£62,000,

€

78,000)she would have had to bear. Ms Durkin, with a master’s degree under her belt and a doctorate under way inher spare time, mostly thinks of the right job in her field of interest.The first two have medical insurance through their jobs, while Ms Durkin buys hers at $180 a month. MsResnevic thinks it is “absurd that healthcare should be a commodity you have to buy. It should be a given. Itis not as if everybody has to have a Lamborghini. That’s a luxury item. Healthcare should not be a luxury.”Ms Durkin has her reservations about government-funded healthcare “but if a democracy chooses it, that’sfine by me”.On race, none is bothered by inter-racial relationships or the prospect of a non-white president. MsResnevic notes: “I come froma New England ‘Wasps’ nest’ without much racial diversity, so it never reallycame up at home. I’mnot sure how it would have been received if I’d brought home a black boyfriend.” MsCrooks’ upbringing was similar. “It was easy to have liberal ideas about race and religion when you grow upin Broomfield, Colorado.” She did have non-white classmates but they were fromher socioeconomic class,so “there were just little cultural differences”. Ms Durkin’s mother is a public school teacher on Chicago’sdisadvantaged South Side, Mr Obama’s political base, so she grew up in a tolerant home environment. Allhave friends fromdifferent ethnic backgrounds.Ms Resnevic says her parents are Republican but are leaning towards Mr Obama, adding: “My dad is adentist and he thinks the McCain taxplan will be devastating for dentists.” Ms Durkin’s father is a “ChicagoDemocrat”, her mother probably leans a bit to the right, but she remembers both were intrigued by the 1992candidacy of the independent Ross Perot. Ms Crooks’ father is a Republican but she thinks she haspersuaded her mother to vote for Mr Obama this time, as she did for Al Gore.Sarah Palin incites derision and contempt. “Her lack of respect for modern education and women’s rightsare scary,” declares Ms Crooks, while Ms Resnevic adds: “It makes me so sad, as a female, to see hermaking such a fool of herself.” Ms Durkin has more regret; “Iwas so gung-ho for John McCain until Ibecame better acquainted with Sarah Palin. Any hopes I had that the GOP would cater to moderates wentout of the window.”One Harvard pollster estimates conservatively that if the Democrat wins the youth vote “big”, it couldtranslate into an extra 1-2 percentage points in the overall electorate.That remains to be seen. Just as citizens shy away fromtelling pollsters they harbour racial prejudice – ifthey do, they would never vote for a black Democratic candidate anyway – so pollsters find it hard to get anaccurate handle on the youth vote, both in its preferences and the likelihood of its casting a ballot onNovember 4.One difficulty is that perhaps more than one-third of youngAmericans only use mobile phones, for which there is nodirectory, though some pollsters are compiling cellulardatabases. Asecond is that the screening-questions thatpollsters use often disqualify the young, especially if they have

2 of 4

never voted before. So whereas the intentions of whiteworking-class single mothers earning $30,000 a year are knownprecisely, those of the under-30s remain a bit of a mystery.Michael Bloomfield, a Democratic pollster with the MellmanGroup, says there “is no question that as demographics change,polling methods have to be adjusted”. But he adds: “It is a loteasier to vote, to vote early and to register now” – a developmentpossibly of sea-change proportions. Mail-in ballots, he explains,used to favour Republicans. But the returns this year on earlyvoting, which the Obama campaign has emphasised in its appealsto the young and minorities, suggest a Democratic tide.Ms Resnevic, her ballot already cast, is part of that early wave. Ifshe and the other two young women are any guide, many conventional electoral demographics could berendered moot.

WHITE HOUSE ONLINE: AN INTERACTIVE RETURN FOR FDR’S FIRESIDE CHAT

Barack Obama has used the power of the internet to transformthe way election campaigns are run – and ifhe wins the White House next month he is thought likely to use the web to transformthe presidency, writes

Rebecca Knight

.Political observers predict Mr Obama, if elected, will convert his election strategy into a governing strategy,using the internet to communicate directly with the public without the filter of the mainstreammedia andharnessing technology to expand political participation.The Obama campaign has created and nurtured an online community of followers through its use of socialnetworking websites. Its e-mail communications not only solicit donations but offer supporters glimpses intothe campaign’s strategy sessions and direct themto local rallies and other gatherings.Expectations are especially high among young voters, many of whomhave become engaged in apresidential election for the first time. “Certainly with young people whose political engagement is facilitatedand encouraged by technology, there will be higher expectations on feedback, accountability andresponsiveness,” says Kathryn Montgomery, president of the Washington-based Center for MediaEducation. “I would expect voters to want to continue to be involved.”Andrew Rasiej, co-founder of the Personal Democracy Forum, whichstudies the intersection of technology and politics, foresees an Obamapresidency using the internet the way Franklin Delano Roosevelt (left)used radio. FDR used his fireside chats to reach living rooms atcritical moments of his presidency, urging Americans to support hisNew Deal measures to revive the Depression economy. “This is arevolutionary opportunity to re-engage the American public in not onlydemocracy but civic life itself,” says Mr Rasiej.He envisages online forums where the public could comment onpending legislation, YouTube town hall-style meetings where citizens could question the president and hewould answer on video, and official White House bloggers for big policy issues.Mr Obama’s supporters – who according to one Democratic strategist represent “a built-in focus group andsupport network” – have over the past year received constant and direct communication from himand hiscampaign. Many may wish that feeling of involvement to continue.“His supporters have been so intricately involved and felt so empowered that they feel a personalconnection to himand ownership of his presidency,” says Mr Rasiej. “If you’re used to a campaign that’ssharing information with you regularly and trusting you to distribute it for them, then you’ll expect the sameonce the candidate becomes president.”Any direct interaction between president and citizens would be a dramatic improvement on the status quo,according to Thomas Gensemer, managing partner at Blue State Digital, the company managing the webtechnology for Mr Obama. “Right now the White House comes online with a Saturday morning radio