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CBSNewsNYTPoll Iowa Main 120611

CBSNewsNYTPoll Iowa Main 120611

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CBS News/NYT Poll on Iowa, Dec. 6, 2011
CBS News/NYT Poll on Iowa, Dec. 6, 2011

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Published by: cbsnews on Dec 09, 2011
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05/24/2012

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CBS News/New York Times PollFor release: Tuesday December 6, 20116:30 PM EST
 
The Iowa Caucuses: Four Weeks to Go
November 30- December 5, 2011
Though Iowa’s Republican caucuses have often hinged on socially conservative issues,this year in Iowa - as in the nation - it’s the economy that dominates. Caucus-goers tellthe CBS News/New York Times poll they’re seeking someone who can turn it aroundand has new ideas to do so.
Iowa’s caucus goers are not backing the candidates they most think share their values – they’re backing the one they think is most prepared for the presidency, and right nowthat’s overwhelmingly Newt Gingrich. Buoyed by that sentiment, he enjoys a sizable leadover Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who are virtually tied for second place in this poll.
Gingrich leads among caucus goers with 31%, followed by Romney (17%) and Paul(16%). Tea Party supporters and evangelical voters back the former House Speaker.Romney leads among moderates.
Ron Paul’s strong suits are tax reform, promoting conservative principles, and sharingvoters’ values. Romney is seen as able to do a good job dealing with the economy.
The Race for the Nomination
The poll finds Newt Gingrich with a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. HermanCain’s departure is not a large factor – he had already declined in Iowa before he withdrew fromthe race Saturday – but Gingrich benefits from his withdrawal. Paul benefits somewhat; Romneydoes not. Although one-third of caucus goers say they did back Herman Cain at one time in thepast, the preference vote measured with Cain in the mix had him at just 7%. Most of theinterviewing for this poll was conducted before Cain left the race; caucus-goers were asked theircandidate preference in questions including and excluding Herman Cain.
Iowa Caucus-goers: Choice for Nominee
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Without Cain With CainNewt Gingrich 31% 28%Mitt Romney 17 18Ron Paul 16 14Rick Perry 11 10Michele Bachmann 9 4Rick Santorum 4 4Jon Huntsman 1 1Herman Cain n/a 7There is still room for movement in the race; 34% say their minds are made up, but 66% saythey could still change their minds.
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Candidate Qualities
Newt Gingrich leads the rest of the Republican candidates on many key attributes – especiallythose that reflect leadership and presidential readiness. He is seen as most prepared for the jobof president, best able to handle an international crisis and most qualified to be commander-in-chief.Gingrich and Romney are viewed as the most electable candidates: 31% say Gingrich has thebest chance of defeating President Obama, while almost as many, 29%, think Romney has thebest chance.
Which Candidate Is…?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Most Prepared Best Handle Most Qualified to be Best Chance toto be President Int’l crisis Commander-in-Chief Beat ObamaGingrich 43% 44% 40% 31%Romney 20 16 19 29Paul 11 10 11 6Perry 8 7 8 9Gingrich also does well on the two issues most important to Iowa caucus goers – the economyand the federal budget deficit. Gingrich ties Romney, who has touted his business experienceand ability to create jobs in his campaign, on dealing with the economy.Even though Gingrich has been criticized by some for his recent statements on illegalimmigration, 21% of Iowa caucus goers think he is the best candidate to handle that issue.About as many – 20% - think Perry would handle illegal immigration best.
Which Candidate Will Do the Best Job On…?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)IllegalEconomy Budget Deficit Health Care Immigration Tax ReformRomney 22% 17% 15% 13% 12%Gingrich 21 25 24 21 17Paul 15 19 15 15 21Perry 13 10 7 20 11In this election, economic issues (71%) trump social issues (14%) among Republican caucus-goers. Even among most white evangelicals – a Republican voter group that traditionallyfactors social issues more prominently in their voting decisions - economic issues matter more.
Which Candidate Views Will Matter More in Your Vote?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)All White EvangelicalsEconomic issues 71% 55%Social issues 14 25Both equally (volunteered) 13 18And in one area, Romney runs a real deficit compared to his competitors. He has beencriticized for changing his position on some issues over the years; just 40% of Iowa caucus-goers think he says what he believes most of the time. More than half – 53% - think he says
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what people want to hear – the highest of any candidate. Four years ago, 56% of Iowa’sRepublican caucus-goers thought Romney mostly said what he believed.
Do You Think…?
 (Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Says What Believes What People Want to HearPaul 81% 13Bachmann 63% 27Gingrich 63% 30Perry 56% 37Santorum 48% 24Romney 40% 53Huntsman 33% 23Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann are tied for the top spot as the candidates who most sharethese voters’ values, and as the candidates who will best promote conservative principles.Iowa caucus-goers think Newt Gingrich best understands their needs and problems, but justone in 10 choose him as the candidate who most shares their values.
Which Candidate …?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Shares Your Understands your Promote ConservativeValues Needs & Problems PrinciplesBachmann 19% 11% 21%Paul 18 16 20Romney 16 13 10Gingrich 11 24 18Santorum 10 5 7Perry 10 10 10Huntsman 1 1 *
(*) denotes less than 0.5%
Electability
When it comes to which is more important – a candidate who agrees with you on the issues orone who has a good chance to win the presidency in 2012 – Republican caucus-goers aredivided: 51% say agreement on the issues is most important, while 48% pick winning in 2012.
What’s More Important in Your Vote A Candidate Who…?
(Among Republican Caucus-Goers)Agrees on the issues 51%Will win in 2012 48Those who say that electability next November is most important to them go for Gingrich by alarge margin, with Romney coming in second. But among those who say it’s more importanttheir candidate agrees with them on the issues, Ron Paul has a slight edge over Gingrich, withRomney coming in third.
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