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Table Of Contents

Executive Summary
1 Introduction and Overview
2 The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidation
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The common pool problem of public fnances and the budget process
2.3 The budget process: Comprehensiveness and transparency
2.4 Results-oriented approaches
2.5 Budgeting institutions: Designing the budget process
3 The United States: Can the 1990s Fiscal Rebalancing Be Repeated?
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The deterioration in the fscal outlook
Figure 3.1 The deterioration of the US budget outlook
Table 3.2 Three projections of the US budget balance
3.3 Prospects for medium-term fscal consolidation
3.4 The longer-term outlook: Demographics and health care expenditures
3.6 Conclusion
4 Europe’s Public Debt Challenge
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The defcit bias
4.3 The effect of population ageing
Figure 4.2 Change in total population 2008–2060 (%)
Figure 4.4 Increase in ageing-related spending between 2007 and 2035 (% of GDP)
4.4 Radical change during the crisis
Table 4.1 Gross public debts in 2012
4.5 The debt challenge
Figure 4.6 Public spending in the OECD: regressing to the mean
5.2 The true state of Japanese fnances
Table 5.3 Business line breakdown of government transactions, FY2008
Figure 5.2 Social spending and revenues, vs. ageing
5.3 Political economy of fscal policy in Japan: The common pool is very deep
Table 5.4 Rough estimate of government transfers for seniors, FY2008
Figure 5.3 Old/young ratios vs. population/seat, by prefecture
5.4 The budget procedure problem
5.5 Budget screenings: An attempt at process improvement
5.6 Taming the beast: The arithmetic of fscal restructuring
5.7 The economics of fscal reform
5.8 A growth-model approach to fscal reform
Table 5.6 Macro/fscal scenarios in a growth model: values for 2035
5.9 Prospects for fscal reform
5.10 Defation and fscal reform
Table 5.7 Time trend projection of trade and current balances
Figure 5.4 Saving and investment by corporates and households (% of GDP)
Appendix: The Tohoku earthquake and fscal policy
Table 5.8 Interest rate assumptions for simulations
Figure 5.5 Energy supply and demand scenario, 2007–75
6 Recommendations
6.1 Institutional reforms
Table 6.1 The budget process in European countries
Table 6.2 Actual and predicted budgetary institutions
6.2 European countries
6.3 The Eurozone
6.4 The United States
6.5 Japan
6.6 Pro-growth policies
6.7 Conclusion
Figure 6.2 Public debt in Switzerland (% of GDP)
Figure 6.4 Gross public debt in France (% of GDP)
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Published by: chocooner on Dec 10, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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