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Saskatoon Commercial and Industrial Study

Saskatoon Commercial and Industrial Study

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Published by dhutton540
Saskatoon study on future demand for residential, commercial, industrial space.
Saskatoon study on future demand for residential, commercial, industrial space.

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Published by: dhutton540 on Dec 13, 2011
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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS
City of Saskatoon
Commercial & Industrial Development Study
FINAL REPORT
Prepared for:City of SaskatoonNovember, 2011Prepared by:MXD Development Strategists, Ltd.www.MXDdevelopment.com
 
Preface
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, wascommissioned to conduct a Commercial and Industrial DevelopmentStudy for the City of Saskatoon. The Study was carried out over theperiod May to November 2011.The objective of this study is to document
Saskatoon’s
current retail,office, hotel and industrial supply and demand metrics to gauge themagnitude of development opportunity that could occur over the next20 years or as the
City’s
population continues to grow and surpasseskey future milestones including 250,00, 275,00, 300,000 and 325,000residents.In addition to the supply and demand metrics, MXD provided anoverview of each Suburban Development Area (SDA) within the City of Saskatoon. Using the forecasted demand estimates, a land allocationof the various land uses was also conducted in which each SDA wasevaluated and apportioned a requisite and compatible amount of theforecasted demand.Reference material for this report was obtained from, but not limitedto; The City of Saskatoon, Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Firms inSaskatoon (in particular, Colliers International Saskatoon, BunsdonJunor Johnson & Associates and ICR Saskatoon), Environics Analytics,Statistics Canada, Chamber of Commerce, Saskatoon RegionalEconomic Development Association, Tourism Saskatoon, University of Saskatchewan, Conference Board of Canada and MXD DevelopmentStrategists Ltd.MXD Development Strategists Ltd. do not warrant that any estimatescontained within the study will be achieved, but that they have beenprepared conscientiously and objectively on the basis of informationobtained during the course of this study. Also, any tenant referencesmade in the report are for illustrative purposes only and should not betaken as guarantees that they will locate in the City of Saskatoon.
i
This analysis was conducted by MXD Development Strategists Ltd. as anobjective and independent party; and is not an agent of the City by virtue of this or any subsequent study to be conducted on this matter.As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither our name nor thematerial submitted may be included in a prospectus, or part of any printedmaterial, or used in offerings or representations in connection with the saleof securities or participation interest to the public, without the expressedpermission of MXD Development Strategists Ltd. or the City of Saskatoon.MXD Development Strategists Ltd.November 2011
 
By the time the City of Saskatoon reaches a population of 325,000, the
city’s
commercial and industrial floor space inventory (excluding hotel) isforecast to grow from a total of 30.1 million sf to 42.4 million sf. Thisrepresents substantial growth of 41% (refer to
Table 1
).
POPULATION HIGHLIGHTS
Saskatoon is the largest city in Saskatchewan with an estimated 231,900residents as of June 2011 (city estimate). Forecasts estimate that thepopulation could reach 235,500 by the end of 2011 (city estimate). For thepurposes of the growth forecasts used in this study, the baseline populationused is the 231,900 figure.Annualized growth of 1.8% per annum over the next 20 years is reasonableand feasible for the City of Saskatoon to achieve on the basis of comparablehistoric growth curves of Edmonton and Calgary as well as forecasts fromThe Conference Board of Canada. Moreover, historic forecasts confirm thatgrowth in the range of 2.0% per annum can be achieved in the city.
SASKATOON FIRST NATIONS
This study recognizes both the autonomy of the First Nations but also theincreasing importance that commercial and industrial revenue can have onthe First Nations community, economically and socially. As a result, workingwith the City of Saskatoon, as has successfully been the case at theMcKnight Commercial Centre, can have significant reciprocal benefits forthe First Nations and the City of Saskatoon.Accordingly, this study does not look at the First Nations lands in isolationbut rather as an integral part of the City of 
Saskatoon’s
future growth.
Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, wascommissioned to conduct a
Commercial and Industrial Development Study 
for the City of Saskatoon. The Study was carried out over theperiod May to November 2011.The objective of this study is to document
Saskatoon’s
current retail,office, hotel and industrial supply and demand metrics to gauge themagnitude of development opportunity that could occur over the nextapproximate 20 years or as the
city’s
population continues to grow andsurpasses future milestones of 250,00, 275,00, 300,000 and 325,000residents.
OVERALL HIGHLIGHTS
Saskatoon has been very successful in managing its growth across alldevelopment areas (retail, office, hotel and industrial). The city hasavoided over-building during a time when pressures to build wereprominent, particularly during the years 2003 to 2007. At the sametime however, the city has missed out on potential opportunities tobroaden its appeal and indirectly has created pent up demand.This
Commercial and Industrial Development Study 
has identifiedfuture growth across all land use segments as well as in each of therespective Suburban Development Areas (SDAs). The future allocationof land uses has identified the East Sector as a critical area for thecreation of a major employment centre. Additionally, the AirportBusiness Area in the North Industrial area as well as Blairmore andNutana have been identified as core areas for future smaller, yetequally important employment centres.The establishment of new employment centres in the north, south,east and west, as well as the re-enforcement of existing employmentcentres, particularly the downtown core, are important in achievingsustainable growth by promoting alternative living and workingdestinations, thereby altering commuting patterns, capable of takingpressures off of the transportation infrastructure as the city grows.The City of Saskatoon has sufficient lands within its current boundaryto accommodate retail, office, hotel and industrial demand above andbeyond that forecast for a total citywide population of 325,000residents.
ii
Table 1 Current Supply & Future Demand Summary
% Shareof FloorSpace
RETAIL10,084,154sf3,233,620sf13,317,774sf31.4% OFFICE4,815,152sf1,998,691sf6,813,843sf16.1% INDUSTRIAL15,230,907sf7,063,218sf22,294,125sf52.5% 30,130,213sf12,295,529sf42,425,742sf100.0%HOTEL3,393rooms889rooms4,282roomsn/a
Current Supply(Y/E 2010 estimate)Market-DrivenForecast for NewFloor Spaceat Populationof 325,000TOTAL Floor Spaceat Populationof 325,000

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