1Center for American Progress | Update: The Iraq War Ledger
Update: The Iraq War Ledger
A Look at the War’s Human, Financial, and Strategic Costs
Matthew Duss and Peter Juul December 2011
Te Unied Saes is wihdrawing he las o is roops rom Iraq his monh, which makesnow an appropriae ime o begin weighing he coss and benes o U.S. naional securiy rom our inervenion here.On May 1, 2003, Presiden George W. Bush sood aboard he deck o he aircra carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and declared o he counry and o he world ha “Major comba opera-ions in Iraq have ended. In he batle o Iraq, he Unied Saes and our allies have prevailed.” As Americans would quickly nd ou, Presiden Bush’s declaraion o vicory was severely premaure. Iraq would soon be in he hroes o a violen insurgency and, evenually, a ull- blown secarian civil war.More han eigh years aer ha speech, as Presiden Barack Obama prepares o keep hispromise o end he war, Iraq has made progress bu sill sruggles wih insecuriy and deeppoliical discord. Tough he level o violence has remained down rom is 2006–2007peak—when dozens o bodies could be ound on Baghdad’s srees every morning—Iraqsill endures a level o violence ha in any oher counry would be considered a crisis. Sill,he end o ormer Iraq Presiden Saddam Hussein’s brual regime represens a consider-able global good, and a nascen democraic Iraqi republic parnered wih he Unied Saescould poenially yield benes in he uure.Bu when weighing hose possible benes agains he coss o he Iraq inervenion, hereis simply no conceivable calculus by which Operaion Iraqi Freedom can be judged ohave been a successul or worhwhile policy. Te war was inended o show he exen o America’s power. I succeeded only in showing is limis.Te ables and chars below ell he ale. We have grouped hese coss ino hree caegories:
•
Te human coss, dealing wih American and Iraqi casualies
•
Te nancial coss, dealing wih he expense o he war and o he coninued care oris veerans
2Center for American Progress | Update: The Iraq War Ledger
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Te sraegic coss, dealing wih he impac o he Iraq inervenion on U.S. power andinfuence in he Middle Eas and on he global sageBeore urning o hose ables and chars, however, we would like o make woaddiional poins.Firs, i is criical o remember he shiing jusicaions or he U.S. inervenion in Iraq.Te Iraq invasion was sold o he American public on he basis o Saddam Hussein’ssupposed possession o weapons o mass desrucion and his alleged relaionship wih Al Qaeda. When boh claims urned ou o be alse, he Bush adminisraion jusied heinervenion on he idea ha a democraic Iraq would be an ally in he “war on error” andan inspiraion or democraic reorm in he Middle Eas. Tese argumens remain, a bes,highly quesionable.Second, he auhors would like o make clear ha his analysis o he coss o he Iraq warin no way diminishes he sacrice, courage, and honor displayed by he U.S. miliary inIraq. Americans roops have served and died in Iraq a he behes o he American peopleand wo o heir commanders-in-chie. Tis is why i is imporan o draw he correclessons rom our naion’s invasion o Iraq. In order o do ha, is coss mus be examinedhonesly and rigorously.
Human costs
• Total deaths:
Beween 110,663 and 119,380
• Coalition deaths:
4,803
1
• U.S. deaths:
4,484
2
• U.S. wounded:
32,200
3
• U.S. deaths as a percentage of coalition deaths:
93.37 percen
• Iraqi Security Force, or ISF, deaths:
A leas 10,125
4
• Total coalition and ISF deaths:
A leas 14,926
• Iraqi civilian deaths:
Beween 103,674 and 113,265
5
• Non-Iraqi contractor deaths:
A leas 463
• Internally displaced persons:
1.24 million
23
• Refugees:
More han 1.6 million
7
Financial costs
• Cost of Operation Iraqi Freedom:
$806 billion
8
• Projected total cost of veterans’ health care and disability:
$422 billion o $717 billion
9
4,803Between103,674and 113,265Iraqi civiliandeathsCoalitiondeathsU.S. deaths:4,484/93.37%
3Center for American Progress | Update: The Iraq War Ledger
Strategic costs
Te oregoing coss could conceivably be jusied i he Iraq inervenion had improvedhe Unied Saes’ sraegic posiion in he Middle Eas. Bu his is clearly no he case. TeIraq war has srenghened ani-U.S. elemens and made he posiion o he Unied Saesand is allies more precarious.
Empowered Iran in Iraq and region.
Te Islamic epublic o Iran is he primary srae-gic beneciary o he U.S.-led inervenion in Iraq. Te end o Saddam Hussein’s regimeremoved Iran’s mos-haed enemy (wih whom i ough a hugely desrucive war in he1980s) and removed he mos signican check on Iran’s regional hegemonic aspiraions.Many o Iraq’s key Iraqi Shia Islamis and Kurdish leaders enjoy close ies o Iran, acilia-ing considerable infuence or Iran in he new Iraq.
Created terrorist training ground
According o he U.K. Maplecro research group’smos recen index, Iraq is he hird-mos vulnerable counry in he world o errorism.
10
Te years o U.S. occupaion in Iraq creaed no only a rallying call or violen Islamicexremiss bu also an environmen or hem o develop, es, and perec various acicsand echniques. Tese acics and echniques are now shared, boh in person and via heInerne, wih exremiss all over he region and he world, including hose ghing U.S.roops in Aghanisan.
Loss of international standing.
While abuses are perhaps ineviable in any miliary occu-paion, he images and sories broadcas rom Iraq ino he region and around he worldhave done lasing damage o he Unied Saes’ repuaion as a supporer o inernaionalorder and human righs. Gen. David Peraeus has said ha he damage done o he UniedSaes’ image by Abu Ghraib is permanen, calling i a “nonbiodegradable”
11
even.
Diverted resources and attention from Afghanistan.
aher han say and nish he jobin Aghanisan as promised, he Bush adminisraion urned is ocus o Iraq beginningin 2002, in preparaion or he 2003 invasion. Special Forces specializing in regional lan-guages were divered rom Aghanisan o Iraq, and Predaor drones were sen o supporhe war in Iraq insead o he hun or Al Qaeda in Aghanisan and Pakisan.
Stifled democracy reform.
While he Arab Awakening o 2011 is a poenially posiivedevelopmen, here’s no evidence ha he Iraq war conribued o his in any posiive way. A 2010 RND sudy concluded ha, raher han becoming a beacon o democracy, heIraq war hobbled he cause o poliical reorm in he Middle Eas. Te repor saed ha“Iraq’s insabiliy has become a convenien scarecrow neighboring regimes can use o delay poliical reorm by assering ha democraizaion ineviably leads o insecuriy.” aherhan supporing democraic orces in neighboring Syria, Iraqi Prime Miniser Nouri al-Maliki has repeaedly voiced suppor or Syrian dicaor Bashar al-Assad.
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Update: The Iraq War Ledger
Matthew Duss and Peter Juul look at the human, financial, and strategic costs of the U.S. intervention in Iraq as the last of our troops pull out.
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