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Syria¶s Uprising: Ethnic Conflict and National Unity
Christopher Haynes15/12/11
T
he popular uprisings that have swept the Middle East and North Africa have had similar causesin each country: economic stagnation, corruption, decades of dictatorship. Not all of them haveoccurred in ethnically-divided societies. Egyptians widely held nationalist sentiments and unitedacross the Muslim-Christian divide in opposition to Hosni Mubarak. Syrians, however, amajority-Sunni population ruled by an ethnic minority supported by other minorities, are variedin their attitudes toward the ruling party.Protests against the regime of President Bashar al Assad began on January 26, but did not turnviolent until March 15, when security forces attacked protesters in the southern city of Deraa andDamascus held demonstrations in a ³day of rage´.
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Youths had written ³the people want the fallof the regime´, the slogan of the other Arab Spring movements, on walls in Deraa, and weretortured and killed as a result.
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Since March, protests have taken place around Syria, and mosthave been brutally crushed.
T
he UN estimates that 5000 people have been killed since then.
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T
ens of thousands have been arrested, including some 14,000 reporters.
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Some observers of Syria are speculating that we are seeing the beginnings of a civil war.
T
he bolder among them believe that it will be an ethnic civil war, with the Sunni majority pitted against the ruling Alawisect.
T
his essay will not look at the situation of all ethno-cultural groups of Syria. Syria has some ninesuch groups
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(including Palestinian and Iraqi refugees) with populations over 100,000. Itconsiders only relations between the Sunnis and the Alawis, as the commentators and experts seethem as the two key parties. If any two groups will fall down the hole of ethnic conflict, it will bethem.Is Syria in civil war? British prime minister David Cameron warned it was heading toward civilwar in late November.
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President Abdullah Gul of
T
urkey said
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urkey is preparing for theworst.
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Joshua Landis
,
director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma,
predicted in April that Syria would descend into a civil war between Sunnis andAlawis.
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T
here is evidence of an inchoate civil war, but it is truly an ethnic conflict? If we canfind clear evidence of major, sustained clashes between sects, or systematic violence against onesect by the army, we will have reason to say an ethnic conflict is occurring in Syria.
1
Unknown author (March 16, 2011). Middle East unrest: Syria arrests Damascus protesters.
BBC
. Retrieved fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12757394
2
Unknown author (November 22, 2011). Syria protests: What you need to know.
BBC
. Retrieved fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15844631
3
Unknown author (December 12, 2011). Syria: 5000 dead in violence, says UN human rights chief.
The Guardian
.Retrieved fromhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/12/syria-5000-dead-violence-un
4
Nasseri, Ladane (December 11, 2011). Syrian protesters urge general strike, pressure on Assad grows.
BusinessWeek
. Retrieved fromhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-11/syrian-protesters-urge-general-strike-pressure-on-assad-grows.html
5
World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples. Syria overview.
Minority Rights Group International
.Retrieved fromhttp://www.minorityrights.org/?lid=5266
6
Unknown author (November 22, 2011). David Cameron: Civil war a real possibility in Syria.
BBC
. Retrieved fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15844470
7
Unknown author (November 21, 2011). Turkish president, Gul, prepared for worst in Syria.
BBC
. Retrieved fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15829159
8
Bakshi, Amar C. (April 26, 2011). Why Syria is descending into civil war.
CNN
. Retrieved fromhttp://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/26/why-syria-is-descending-into-civil-war/
T
here is a certain difficulty in gathering information about an ongoing conflict, particularly onetaking place in a country from which journalists are banned.
T
his essay attempts to paint anaccurate picture of what some are calling (and others are hesitant to call) an ethnic civil war based on the obtainable evidence. Its contention is that there is no clear answer at present, andthat the evidence points both ways: certain ethnic cleavages are coming to the fore while unity inopposition to the ruling elite is nationalist and has brought people together.
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his paper first sketches the history of ethnic relations in Syria, with emphasis on the BaathParty and Alawi dominance of it. Second, it considers other sources of division and examines the possibility of horizontal inequalities, the sources of ethnic division.
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hird, it looks at the forcesthat unite most of the population of Syria, the common grievances, from economic stagnation tolack of democracy. Finally, it outlines the protests that have taken place and the violence withwhich they have been met.
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hese factors all display the forces dividing and uniting Syria duringthis uprising.Sunni Muslims make up approximately three quarters of the population of Syria, the remainder split among Christians, Alawis, Druze and Ismailis. As a secular state, official censuses do notcover religion or ethnicity, so accuracy is difficult. Alawis represent between 8 and 15% of Syrians.
T
hough they populate the upper echelons of the military, as a community, Alawis arenot in an advantaged position.
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Alawis are concentrated in the northwest of Syria.
T
he land now known as Syria has historically been a refuge for the persecuted. Religious, tribaland linguistic differences are strong, as are local loyalties, especially in the Latakia region(Alawi majority) and the Jabal al Duruz (Druze majority), the only two regions that are not
majority Sunni. (Van Dam, 1979, 16) Sunnis traditionally enjoyed the privilege of being on thetop. (Ibid., 17) Syrian ³sects´ have separate histories and religious beliefs, and as such can beconsidered ethnic, religious and cultural groups.
T
he distinction among the three terms, in Syriaat least, is nugatory.When the European powers interfered in the Ottoman Empire, ostensibly to protect religiousminorities, the Ottoman government and the Sunni majority looked on the minorities as³potential traitors, sources of weakness and instruments of European policy; in general asdangers to the Empire and to the Islamic community.´ (Ibid., 18) Relations soured.During the mandate period, the French deliberately incited sectarian tensions and fostered theseparateness of each community. (Ibid., 18)
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hey favoured members of the armed forces fromminority groups and did not encourage Sunnis to enlist.
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he minorities were often from poorer backgrounds and had more economic incentive to join the military. (Ibid., 39) Moreover, wealthySunnis led the nationalist revolt against the French, and refused to send their sons into theimperial military, thus giving minorities a better chance at advancement. (Ibid., 40) As result,
there is less loyalty to the nation as to the community or the pan-Arab cause, and local politicalstruggles dominate national politics. (Ibid., 19) However, this manipulation by foreign powers
does not seem to have left any very powerful, smouldering ethnic tensions. At the very least, notmany of the Syrians who have taken to the streets seem to blame one group (the Alawis) so much
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Unknown author (December 9, 2011). Guide: Syrias diverse minorities.
BBC
. Retrieved fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16108755
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