‫‪ 29‬ﻛﺘﺒﺮ‬

‫‪2008‬‬ ‫ﺑﻼگ ﺳﻌـﻴﺪ ﺳـﺎﻣـﺎ
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‫ﺟﻨـﮓ  ﺑﻬـﺒﻮ!‬

‫ﻣﺮ ﺷــﺎﺧﺺ »ﺟﻮﻧﺰ«  ﺑﺎ ﺑﻮ ﻧﻴﻮﻳﻮ ‪ 11‬ﺻﺪ ﻓﺰﻳﺶ ﺷــﺖ!  ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﺣﺖ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ ﻓﺰﻳﺶ‬
‫ ﺷــﺮﻳﻄﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ  ﺳــﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ  ﺷﺮ‪ 3‬ﻓﺮﭘﺎﺷﻰ ﮔﺰ‪ /‬ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﻧﺸﺎ(  ﻳﻚ ﻣﺮ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﺷﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻀﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﭼﺸــﻢ ﻣﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ »ﺟﻨﮓ« ﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭘﺮﺳﻴﺪ ﻳﻦ »ﺟﻨﮓ« ﭼﻴﺴﺖ   ﻛﺪ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ  ﺟﻬﺎ(‬
‫ﻛﺮﻛﺲﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺳــﺎﻣﺎ( ﻧﺎﺗﻮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺒﺎ‪ J‬ﺗﻐﺬﻳﻪ  ﺟﺴــﺎ ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺟﻬﺎ( ﺳــﻮ‪ :‬ﻧﺸﺴﺘﻪﻧﺪ؟ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭘﺮﺳﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻛﺪ‪ :‬ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ‬
‫ﺳﺖﻧﺸــﺎﻧﺪ‪  S‬ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ ﻧﻮﻛﺮﺻﻔﺖ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺒﺎ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺧﻮ   ﺑﺮﺑﺮ ﻟﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻮپ ﺳــﺎﻣﺎ( ﻧﺎﺗﻮ ﻗﺮ ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ؟  ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﺌﻠﻪ  ﺷــﻦ ﻛﺮ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ »ﺟﻨﮓ‪FU‬ﻫﺎ« ﮔﺮ ﻣﻜﺎ(ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮ ﺑﺪ( ﺗﻮﻓﻖ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ‪ ،‬ﭘﻜﻦ ‬
‫ﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﺻﻮ‪ W‬ﻧﻤﻰﮔﻴﺮ‪.‬‬

‫ ﻣﺪ‪W‬ﻫﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻮ‪Y‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻣﻨﻔﻮ ﺳﺎﻧﻪ‪ F‬ﺳﺨﻦ  ﻳﻚ »ﺑﺤﺮ(« ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺎ( ﻣﻰ‪U‬ﻧﺪ‪» :‬ﺑﺤﺮﻧﻰ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ !«F‬ﻟﻰ ﻣﻰﻧﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻛﻪ »ﺑﺤﺮ(«‪ ،‬ﺣﺘﻰ ﮔﺮ ﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﻫﻢ ﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﻂ  ﺻﻮﺗﻰ »ﻣﻠﻤﻮ« ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ  ﺑﻮ‪ (U Y‬ﺑﺪﻣﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺮ‪ :‬ﻋﺎ‪  F‬ﺑﺤﺮ( ﭼﻴﺰ ﻳﺎ‪ F‬ﺳﺘﮕﻴﺮﺷﺎ( ﻧﺨﻮﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ؛ ﻃﻼﻋﺎ‪ W‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ  ﺧﺘﻴﺎ ﻳﻨﺎ( ﻗﺮ ﮔﻴﺮ‪U   ،‬ﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ‬
‫»ﻃﻼﻋﺎ‪ «W‬ﺟﻬﺖ ﺳــﺖ‪» ،‬ﻋﺎﻣﻞ« ‪U‬ﮔﺎﻫﻰ ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ  ﺗﻮ‪S‬ﻫﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ  ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﻮ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺘﺤﻮ‪ J‬ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫ﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻄﻼ‪» c‬ﺑﺤﺮ(«‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﻣﻌﻠﻮ‪ :‬ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ ﻻﺋﻞ ﻗﻌﻰ‪  /‬ﻛﺠﺎ ﭘﻨﻬﺎ( ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪  ،S‬ﻣﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺻﻮ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻔﺎ‪ W‬ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺨﺴــﺖ  ﮔﺮﻧﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ »ﻣﻄﻠﻊ« ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﻳﻢ‪  .‬ﻛﻤﺎ‪ J‬ﺗﻌﺠﺐ ﻣﻰﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ  ﻋﺮ‪ e‬ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺎ‪ S‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﻗﻼ‪ :‬ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ  ﺑﺎﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﭼﻨﺪﻳﻦ ﺻﺪ ﻓﺰﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ! ﺳــﺌﻮ‪ J‬ﺟﺎﻟﺐ ﻳﻨﺠﺎﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ  ﻋﺮ‪ e‬ﭼﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺎ‪ S‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ  ﻣﺼﺮ‪  3‬ﻣﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﻳﻨﭽﻨﻴﻦ »ﻳﮕﺮﮔﻮ(« ﺷﻮ؟ ﺟﻮ‪ g‬ﺳﺎ‪ S‬ﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﮔﺮﮔﻮﻧﻰ‪F‬‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ »ﺑﺤﺮ( ﻛﻤﺒﻮ  ﮔﺮﻧﻰ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ« ﻳﻚ ﺳــﺘﺮﺗﮋ‪ F‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺳﺖ  ﺑﺲ! ﭼﺮ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻪ‬
‫ ﻋــﺮ‪ e‬ﭼﻨــﺪ ﻣﺎ‪ S‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮ( ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﺟﻬﺎ(  ‪U‬ﻧﭽﻨﺎ( ﻓﺰﻳﺶ  ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻦ ﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮ‪  ،‬ﻧﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮ( ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ  ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻦ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﻛﻤﺒﻮ‪ F‬ﻳﻨﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺳﻴﻊ ﻳﺠﺎ ﺷﻮ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ »ﺑﺤﺮ(« ﻛﻪ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺎ‪ S‬ﭘﻴﺶ ‪U‬ﻏﺎ‬
‫ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ F‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎ ﺷﻦ ﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻜﻴﻢ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﻗﺪ‪W‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻏﺮﺑﻰ  ﺑﺎﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ!‬

‫ﻧﻴﺎ‪ F‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻧﺪﻳﻢ ﻟﻰ ﻧﻤﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ  ﻧﻈﺮ  ﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ‪ ،‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ »ﺳﺘﺮﺗﮋﻳﻚ«‬
‫ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ ﮔﻨﺪ‪ ،:‬ﮔﻮﺷــﺖ ﻗﺮﻣﺰ‪ ،‬ﺷــﻜﺮ  ‪ ...‬ﻛﺜﺮ ً  ﻛﻨﺘﺮ‪  J‬ﻧﻈﺎ‪ W‬ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺪ‪W‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﻗﺮ ‪ .‬ﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺞ  ﻛﺸــﻮﻫﺎ‪U F‬ﺳــﻴﺎ‪ F‬ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻴﺮﻏﻢ ﺣﻀﻮ ﻗﺪ‪W‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺑﺰگ ﭼﻮ( ﻫﻨﺪ  ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺳﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺘﺮ‪ J‬ﻣﻰﺷﻮ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ  ﻣﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺰ‪ F‬ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪  ،‬ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺘﻔﺎ‪  S‬ﻧﻴﺮﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ  ﺷﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺎﮔﺎ(ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺗﺠﺎ‪ F‬ﺧﻮ ﺑﺎﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ  ﺑﺮ‪ F‬ﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ W‬ﻣﻰﮔﺸــﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺪ( ﺣﻀﻮ ﻳﻦ ﻗﺪ‪W‬ﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ W‬ﻋﻈﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺞ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﻳﺎ  ﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ  ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪U F‬ﺳﻴﺎ‪ F‬ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﺻﻮ‪ W‬ﻧﺨﻮﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ!‬

‫ﻣﺎﻧﻴﻜﻪ »ﺑﺤﺮ( ﮔﺮﻧﻰ ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ« ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔﻊ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ F‬ﻏﺮ‪» g‬ﻓﻴﺼﻠﻪ« ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ »ﺑﺤﺮ( ﻧﻔﺖ«‬
‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﭘﺎ‪ F‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺪ( ﮔﺬﺷــﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﻔﺖ ﻳﻜﻰ  ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻮ ﺧﺎ‪  :‬ﺳــﺘﺮﺗﮋﻳﻚ  ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻏﺮ‪ g‬ﺳﺖ‪،‬‬
‫ ﺑﺎﻻ  ﭘﺎﺋﻴﻦ ﻓﺘﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ (U‬ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺿﻊﮔﻴﺮ‪F‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻳﻦ  ﻳﺎ ‪ (U‬ﻛﺸﻮ ﺟﻬﺎ( ﺳﻮ‪  :‬ﻳﺎ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺟﻨﮕﻰ ‬
‫ﺗﻨﮕﺔ ﻫﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻮ ﺑﭙﻴﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﺮ ﻛﻪ  ﺻﻮ‪ W‬ﻳﺠﺎ ﻛﻮﭼﻚﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺧﺪﺷﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻧﺪ ﺻﺎ‪ W‬ﻧﻔﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‪،‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﻛﺎ‪ p‬ﭘﻮﺷــﺎﻟﻰ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺳﺎﻻ‪ F‬ﻳﻚﺷــﺒﻪ ﻓﺮ ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ﻳﺨﺖ‪  .‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ ،‬ﮔﺮ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ  ﭘﺎﺋﻴﻦ ﻓﺘﻦ »ﭼﺸﻢﮔﻴﺮ«‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪ :‬ﻫﺴﺘﻴﻢ‪  ،‬ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﺸﻪ   ﺑﻂ ﻣﻴﺎ( ﻣﺴﻜﻮ  ﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮ ﻛﺮ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺮ ﺧﻼ‪ 3‬ﻣﻮ ﻏﺬﺋﻰ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻪ  ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ  ﺻﺎ‪ W‬ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪  :‬ﮔﺎﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ  ﻗﺪ‪ W‬ﻋﻜﺲﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺴﻴﺎ ﮔﺴﺘﺮ‪ S‬ﺑﺮﺧﻮ‬
‫ﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻟﻰ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮ ﻛﻪ ﻳﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺴــﺌﻠﻪ ﻳﻨﺒﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ  ﭼﺎﭼﻮ‪ g‬ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ F‬ﺣﻞ  ﻓﺼﻞ ﺷﺪ؛ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺧﺎ‪150  :‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺑﺮ‪ F‬ﻫﺮ ﺑﺸــﻜﻪ ﺑﻪ ‪ 50‬ﻻ ﺳــﻘﻮ‪ s‬ﻛﺮ‪  ،‬ﻳﻦ ﺳــﻘﻮ‪ s‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺳﻜﻮ‪ W‬ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﺎﻣﺎ( ﭘﻚ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻫﻤﺮ‪ S‬ﺑﻮ! ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻞ‪ ،‬ﺷــﻴﺦﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻋﺮ‪  g‬ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺳﺖﻧﺸــﺎﻧﺪ‪  S‬ﺳﺎﻣﺎ( ﭘﻚ‪  ،‬ﺟﻼ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﺔ ﻳﻦ ﺳﺎﻣﺎ(‪ ،‬ﺑﺠﺎ‪ F‬ﻧﮕﺮﻧﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺮ‪ F‬ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺧﻮ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻧﮕﺮ( ﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﺪ(  ﻧﺰ‪J‬ﺧﻮ( ﻧﻴﻮﻳﻮ ﺑﻮﻧﺪ!‬

‫ﻟﻰ ﻳﻚ ﺻﻞ ﻛﻠﻰ  ﻫﻴﭽﮕﺎ‪ S‬ﻧﻤﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻓﺮﻣﻮ‪ /‬ﻛﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺮ( ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ F‬ﻳﺸﻪ  ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺳﺎﻻ‪ F‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺗﻰ‬
‫ﻓﺼﻠــﻰ ﻇﻬــﻮ ﻣﻰﻛﻨــﺪ‪ S  ،‬ﺣﻞ ﺧﺮ‪  w‬ﺑﺤﺮ( ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮ( ﺑﺎﻻ  ﭘﺎﺋﻴﻦ ﺑﺮ( ﺑﻬــﺮ‪ u‬ﭘﻮ‪  J‬ﻳﺎ ﺗﺰﻳﻖ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻰ ‬
‫ﮔﻴﺸﻪﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ؛ ﺑﺤﺮ( ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪  F‬ﻓﻘﻂ »ﺟﻨﮓ« ﺑﺮ ﻃﺮ‪ 3‬ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﺮ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ F‬ﺑﺮ ﻣﺤﻮ‬
‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺷﺪ‪.S‬‬
‫ ﻣﻮ ﺷــﺒﻜﺔ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮ‪» u‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﻣﻮ‪ «F‬ﭘﻴﺸﺘﺮ  ﻳﻚ ﻣﻄﻠﺐ ﺟﺪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﺎ‪ W‬ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ‪S‬ﻳﻢ؛ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ   ﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻘﻄﻊ ﺗﻜﺮ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻟﻰ ﻳﺎ‪ U‬ﺷــﻮﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺮ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻨﮓ  ﭼﺮﺧﺔ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺳــﺎﻻ‪» F‬ﺣﺬ‪ «3‬ﺷﻮ‪  ،‬ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻻﺋﻠــﻰ ﻳﻦ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﻧﺘﻮﻧﺪ  ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻬﺮ‪ u‬ﻛﺎﻓﻰ  ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺒــﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺿﺮﺑﻪ   ﻟﻴﻦ ﮔﺎ‪ :‬ﻫﻤﺎ( »ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻮ‪ «F‬ﻣﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪  .‬ﻣﺮ ﺷــﺎﻫﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ‪3U» F‬ﺷﻮ«‪  ،‬ﻛﺸــﻮﻫﺎ‪» F‬ﻧﻴﺴﺖﺟﻬﺎ(«  ﻗﻤﺎ‪/‬‬
‫ﻳﺴــﻠﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺟﺰﻳــﺮ ﻛﺎﻳﻤﺎ(‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻫﺎﻣﺎ‪  ...  ،‬ﺣﺎ‪ J‬ﻓﺮ ﻳﺨﺘﻦﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﻗــﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻰﻫﺎ  ﻳﺪ ﺧﺘﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺧﻮ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪  ،‬ﭘﺮ ﺿﺢ ﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮ( ﻧﺮ‪ p‬ﺑﻬﺮ‪ S‬ﺳﻌﻰ ﺧﻮﻫﻨﺪ ﺷﺖ »ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﻫﺎ«   ﺳﺘﺎ‪ F‬ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪  S‬ﮔﻴﺸــﻪﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺧﻮ ﻣﺤﻔﻮ‪ z‬ﻧﮕﺎ‪ S‬ﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ  ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻬﺮ‪ u‬ﭘﻮ‪  J‬ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﻋﻤ ً‬
‫ﻼ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻣﻰﺳــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 20‬ﺻﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﭙﺮ‪S‬ﻫﺎ »ﺑﻬﺮ‪ «S‬ﻣﻰﻫﻨﺪ! ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭘﺮﺳﻴﺪ ﻳﻦ ﭘﻮ‪J‬ﻫﺎ ﻛﺠﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺰ‪ F‬ﻣﻰﺷﻮ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺎ‪» S‬ﻓﺮﺧﻨﺪ‪ «FS‬ﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ؟‬

‫ﻳﻦ ﭘﻮ‪J‬ﻫﺎ  ﺟﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﭼﺎ‪ Y‬ﻧﺴﺎ(‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﭼﺎ‪ Y‬ﻣﻮ ﻣﺨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﭼﺎ‪ Y‬ﺳﻠﺤﻪ‪ ... ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺰ‪ F‬ﻣﻰﺷﻮ  »ﻛﺴﺎ‪  «F‬ﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﻪ  ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸﻜﻼ‪ W‬ﻋﻈﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮ‪ F‬ﻟﺖﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻣﺤﺘﺮ‪ :‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮ‪ S‬ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ‪ .U‬ﺑﺤﺮﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺲ  ﺑﺤﺮ( »ﻧﻔﺖ«‬
‫ﭘــﺎ‪ F‬ﺑــﻪ ﻣﻴﺪ( ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎ‪ W‬ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﮔﺬﺷــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﻧﻴﻢ ﺑﺤﺮ( »ﻣﺎﻟﻰ« ﻧﺎ‪ :‬ﮔﺮﻓــﺖ! ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﺟﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻰ ‬
‫ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺳﺘﻮ(ﻫﺎﻳﺶ   ﺳﺖ ﻣﻰﻫﺪ‪  ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻟﻴﻞ ﻓﺮﭘﺎﺷﻰ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﻣﻮ‪ ،F‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻏﺮ‪ g‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺰﻟﺰ‪ J‬ﻣﻰﻓﺘﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﺷﻦﺗﺮ  ‪ (U‬ﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻳﻨﻬﻤﻪ ﺷــﺮﻳﻂ ﻗﻌﻰ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻜﺮ‪ .S‬ﻛﺸــﻮ ﻳﺎﻻ‪ W‬ﻣﺘﺤﺪ  ﮔﻴﺮ  ﺟﻨﮓ  ﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴــﺘﺎ(  ﻋﺮ‪ Y‬ﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﺋﻰ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ  ﺑﻴﺶ  ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﺰﻳﻖ ﺑﻮﺟﺔ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﻧﺪ! ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭘﺮﺳــﻴﺪ  ﺷــﺮﻳﻄﻰ ﻛــﻪ »ﺑﺤﺮ(«  ﺟﻬﺎ(‬
‫ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ F‬ﺑﻪ ‪ S‬ﻓﺘﺎ‪ ،S‬ﻛﺸــﻮ ﻳﺎﻻ‪ W‬ﻣﺘﺤﺪ  ﻛﺪ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻳﻦ  ﺟﻨﮓ ﭘﺮﺧﺮ‪  w‬ﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎ‪  F‬ﻧﻴﺰ‬
‫ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﺪ؟ ﭘﺎﺳــﺦ ﺳــﺎ‪ S‬ﺳﺖ؛ ﻳﻦ ﻣﻜﺎ(  ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺟﻮ ﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺳــﺮﻋﺖ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﺤﺮ( ﻣﺎﻟﻰ  ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪،F‬‬
‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﻓﺮﭘﺎﺷــﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﻣﻮ‪ ،F‬ﭘﺮ ﺿﺢ ﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺴــﻴﺎ‪  F‬ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪  S‬ﺻﺪ‬
‫ﭘﻴﺶﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻦ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ »ﺟﻨﮓ« ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮﻃﺮ‪ 3‬ﻛﺮ( ﻣﺸﻜﻼ‪ W‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﮔﺴﺘﺮ‪ /‬ﺟﻨﮓ  ﺧﺎﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‪U ،‬ﻏﺎ ﺟﻨﮕﻰ‬
‫ﻓﺮﮔﻴﺮ  ‪U‬ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ F‬ﻻﺗﻴﻦ‪  ،‬ﻳﺎ ﮔﺴﺘﺮ‪ /‬ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﺔ ﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎ(‪ ،‬ﻫﻴﭽﻜﺪ‪ :‬ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ‬
‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳــﺖ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮ‪ u‬ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎ‪» F‬ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ«  ‪ F‬ﻣﻴﺰﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻃﺮﺣﻰ ﭘﻨﺘﺎﮔﻮ( ﻣﺤﻮ ﺷﻮ‪ .‬ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﻳﻦ »ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎ« ﺑﺮ‪F‬‬
‫ﭘﻨﺘﺎﮔﻮ( »ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮ‪ «J‬ﺳﺖ!‬

‫ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﻰ ﻛﻪ  ﻳﻦ ﺑﻼگ ‪SU‬ﻳﻢ ﺑﺎﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺮ(ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ F‬ﻛﻪ  ﺳﺎ‪ 1910J‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 1945‬ﻧﻴﺎ‪ F‬ﻏﺮ‪  g‬ﻓﺮﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻮ ﺷــﺎ‪ S‬ﻛﺮ‪S‬ﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﺑﺮ‪  F‬ﻣﻴﺎ( ﺑﺮ( ﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺮ(ﻫﺎ‪  ،‬ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻞ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ »ﻓﻠﺴــﻔﺔ ﺟﻮ‪ «F‬ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮ‪ J‬ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷــﻴﻮ‪u‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴــﺪ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ ،F‬ﻟﺖﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻏﺮ‪ ،g‬ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺟﻬﺎ(  ﻃﻰ  ﺟﻨــﮓ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻗﺼﺎﺑﻰ ﻛﺮﻧﺪ؛ ﺗﻠﻔﺎ‪ W‬ﻳﻦ  ﺟﻨﮓ‬
‫ ﻗﺎﻳﻊﻧﮕﺎ‪F‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﺳــﻤﻰ ﺑﻴﺶ  ﻳﻜﺼﺪ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮ( ﻛﺸــﺘﻪ  ﺻﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮ( ﺧﻤﻰ  ‪ SU‬ﺑﺮ‪ U‬ﻣﻰﺷــﻮ‪ .‬ﺷــﺎﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺮﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻣﺘﺮﻗﻰ ﻣﺮ ﻓﺮﺻﺘﻰ ﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻳﻦ ﭼﺮﺧﺔ ﻣﻨﺤﻮ ﺑﺮ‪ F‬ﻫﻤﻴﺸﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﭘﺎﻳﺎ( ﺑﮕﺬﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻰﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﭼﺮ‪p‬ﻧﺪ‪S‬ﻫﺎ‪ F‬ﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮ‪ u‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻫﻮﻟﻨﺎ ‪U‬ﻧﺰﻣﺎ( ﻛﻪ  ﻣﻴﺎﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓ ﻗﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﭽﻮ( ﻛﺮﻛﺴﺎ(  ﺧﻮ(  ﮔﻮﺷﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ ﻗﺪ‪  W‬ﺗﻮ( ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ ،‬ﻳﻦ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ‪ F‬ﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺸﺮﻳﺖ  ﺟﻨﮓ ‪  J‬ﺟﻨﮓ ‪. :‬‬

‫ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ  ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﻦﺑﺴﺖ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ  ﻛﺸﻮ ‪U‬ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪  ،‬ﺑﺤﺮ( ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ F‬ﻛﻪ ﻫﻴﭽﮕﻮﻧﻪ ‪S‬ﺣﻞ‬
‫ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪﺷــﺪ‪ FS‬ﺑﺮ ‪ (U‬ﻣﺘﺼﻮ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﻦ ﺻﻞ  ﻗﺒﻮ‪ J‬ﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻟﺖ ﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﻣﺘﺮﺻﺪ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﺟﻬﺖ ‪U‬ﻏﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳــﺖ‪  ،‬ﻳﻦ ﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺗﺮﻳﺪ‪ F‬ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ! ﻓﻘﻂ ‪U‬ﻏﺎ ﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓ  ﺷــﺮﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮ ﻛﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺑــﺪ( ﺗﺄﺋﻴــﺪ ﻳﮕﺮ ﻗﺪ‪W‬ﻫﺎ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﺨﻮﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪  ،‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ‪U‬ﻳﺎ ﻳﻦ »ﺟﻤﺎ« ﺟﻬﺎﻧــﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺤﻮ ‪U‬ﺗﺶﻓﺮ‪F‬‬
‫ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﺎ ﺧﻴﺮ!‬