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 CBS NEWS POLLFor release: Tuesday, December 20, 20116:30 PM (EST)Gingrich and Romney: Tied on the Economy & Tied for the Nomination
December 14-18, 2011
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Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are now tied for the Republican nomination, with RonPaul coming in third. Romney and Gingrich receive support from different voter groups:Romney from moderates and non-Tea Party supporters, Gingrich from conservatives.
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Romney’s strengths include having the best chance to beat Barack Obama and havingthe right temperament for president. Many Republican primary voters (most of whom areconservative) see him as a moderate. He falls below Gingrich and Paul on fighting hardfor his economic policies.
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Gingrich is viewed as a conservative, and best prepared for the presidency. He and RonPaul are seen as the candidates who would represent the biggest change from BarackObama.
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Like Americans overall, Republican primary voters think the nation’s most importantissue is the economy and jobs, and they are more likely to think the economy is very bad(52%) and getting worse (38%). Gingrich and Romney are tied as the candidate mosttrusted to handle the economy and unemployment.
 The State of the Race
Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney lead the field of Republican candidates nationally, each with20%. Ron Paul takes the third spot at 10%, while the remaining candidates are in single digits.Last month, Herman Cain was the top choice of Republican primary voters, but Gingrich andRomney now lead after Cain’s exit from the race.
2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters)Now 11/11 10/25 10/3 9/16Newt Gingrich 20% 15% 10% 8% 7%Mitt Romney 20 15 21 17 16Ron Paul 10 5 8 7 5Rick Perry 6 8 6 12 23Michele Bachmann 4 4 2 4 7Rick Santorum 3 2 1 3 1Jon Huntsman 1 1 1 2 1Herman Cain na 18 25 17 5Someone else 19 14 12 10 11Undecided/Don’t know 17 17 14 18 22
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While the Iowa caucuses are just two weeks away, nationally the race for the nominationremains fluid. 17% of Republican primary voters are undecided about a candidate, and another19% want someone else. Even among Republican voters who pick a candidate, nearly eight in10 say it’s too early to say whether their mind is made up.
Mind Made Up Whom to Support?
(among Republican Primary Voters with a Choice)Now 11/2011 12/2007Yes 21% 28% 23%Too early 79 72 76There is further indication that candidate support is not yet solidified: 62% of Republicanprimary voters say they have reservations about their candidate choice, and less than a quarterstrongly favors their candidate.
Support for Candidate
(among Republican primary voters with a choice)Now 11/2011Strongly favor your candidate 23% 32%Like your candidate, but with reservations 62 58Dislike other candidates 13 8Gingrich and Romney receive their support from different factions of the Republican primaryelectorate. Gingrich leads among self-identified conservatives, and Republican primary voterswho support the Tea Party movement. Romney has the advantage with non-Tea Partysupporters and moderates, but less than a third of Republican primary voters call themselvesmoderates.The race is now even among white evangelicals. Herman Cain was the top choice ofevangelical voters early last month.
2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters)Gingrich Romney PaulTotal 20% 20 10Men 21% 17 14Women 20% 23 7White evangelicals 20% 20 10Conservative 26% 18 9Moderate 14% 25 15Tea Party 28% 12 6Non-Tea Party 14% 26 15Two weeks before the caucuses and primaries get underway, 26% of registered votersnationwide say they are more enthusiastic about the 2012 presidential election compared topast elections. This level of enthusiasm is lower than in it was in December 2007, when 35% ofvoters were more enthusiastic.
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But there is a partisan enthusiasm gap: 38% of Republican voters are more enthusiastic aboutvoting in 2012, while just 21% of Democrats are. This is a reversal from four years ago, whenDemocrats expressed more enthusiasm than Republicans about voting.
Enthusiasm Now vs. Past Elections
(among registered voters)----------- Now -------------- ----------- 12/2007 --------------All Reps Dems Inds All Reps Dems IndsMore 26% 38% 21% 23% 35% 31% 44% 30%Less 23 12 27 27 22 24 13 29Same 50 49 51 49 43 45 42 4174% of voters overall are paying at least some attention to the 2012 campaign -- but only athird are paying a lot of attention.
Candidate Qualities
60% of Republican primary voters identify themselves as conservatives, and pluralities identifyboth Newt Gingrich (41%) and Ron Paul (38%) as conservatives. That’s not the case for MittRomney: more see him as a moderate (39%) than as a conservative (31%).
Is Candidate More of a…?
(Among Republican Primary Voters)Gingrich Romney PaulLiberal 14% 16% 12%Moderate 29 39 17Conservative 41 31 38Don’t know 16 14 33The poll suggests a challenge for Romney: half of Republican primary voters think Romneysays what people want to hear, while just 38% think he says what he believes. Majorities thinkboth Gingrich and Paul say what they believe.Romney does well on having the right temperament to be president – 63% view him that way.56% of voters say the same about Gingrich. 40% say that about Paul, but one in four doesn’thave an opinion.
Candidate Qualities
(Among Republican Primary Voters)Gingrich Romney PaulSays what he believes 61% 38% 61%Says what people want to hear 28 49 16Has the right temperament/ Personality to be presidentYes 56% 63% 40%No 29 25 36Don’t know 15 12 24
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