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Based on USDA-ERS Data Steve Savage Savage & Associates Applied Mythology Blog
Background
Data Source
The Economic Research Service of the USDA has been tracking farm level supply of many food commodities for 40-50 years and makes this data available to the public (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/FoodAvailSpreadsheets.ht m)
Savage & Associates The data for 2010 was available in some cases, but most of this analysis is through 2009
Vegetables
Fruit
Fresh
Pounds/Person/Year 150
Canned
100
50
Frozen
Dried Potato Chips
0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Fresh Juice
Canned Dried
1980
50
Orange Grapefruit Lemon Lime Apple Grape Pineapple Cranberry Prune
Pounds/Person/Year
40
30
20
10
0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
2010
Savage & Associates
Vegetable Crops With A High and Increasing Proportion of Imports All Fr. Veg
Artichokes Asparagus Brussels Cucumbers Eggplant Garlic
10
All Fr. Veg Broccoli Carrots Head Lettuce Mushrooms Romaine Sweet Corn
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
All Fr. Fruit Avocados Cantaloupe Grapefruit Grapes Kiwifruit Lemons Limes Papayas Pineapple Strawberries Tangerines
1995 2000 2005 2010
0
1990
Fresh Vegetables
Comparing the window 2007-9 with the window 1997-9, there has been a 3.6% drop in total per capita supply Eight crops showed declining supply, most notably potatoes, head lettuce, carrots, and cabbage 18 crops saw increasing supply, 11 with more than a 10% increase in that decade
Savage & Associates
Fresh Fruit
Comparing the window 2007-9 with the window 1997-9, there has been a 3.1% drop in total per capita fresh fruit supply Nine crops saw declining supply (greatest for grape fruit, oranges, apples bananas and cantaloupes) 13 crops saw increasing supply, 10 with more than a 20% increase in that decade
Savage & Associates
lbs/person 2007-9 1997-9 2.9 6.0 8.8 12.3 1.7 2.3 9.3 10.8 16.2 18.5 25.2 28.6 0.5 0.5 4.7 5.2 3.1 3.4 2.6 2.6 8.2 7.6 0.1 0.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.5 6.6 4.2 5.1 2.7 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 3.8 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 109.8 113.3
Change lbs/person Percent -3.0 -50.8 -3.5 -28.3 -0.6 -26.6 -1.6 -14.7 -2.3 -12.3 -3.4 -11.8 -0.1 -10.4 -0.5 -9.9 -0.3 -9.3 0.0 0.9 0.5 6.9 0.0 8.6 0.6 25.8 0.6 36.8 2.4 58.0 2.4 86.9 1.1 88.1 0.6 109.0 2.1 120.7 0.7 123.5 0.5 153.9 0.3 326.9 -3.5 -3.1
Total
Domestic Exports
Imports
15
Fresh orange consumption and supply have been in long-term decline This crop still has a significant export segment Imports are minor, but increasing
18 16 14 Pound/Person/Year 12 10 8
Total
Exports
6 4 2 0 1970
Domestic
Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010
16
Pound/Person/Year
After a long period of overall growth, the cantaloupe supply has declined significantly since the late 1990s Domestic supply, and to a lesser extent, imported supply, are declining
12
10
Total Domestic
Imports
2
Exports
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
17
2.5
Pound/Person/Year
Total
2.0
1.5
Domestic
1.0
Imports
0.5
Exports
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
18
Total
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970
Domestic
Exports Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010
19
Pound/Person/Year
Total fresh apple supply has decreased slightly on a per capita basis since the Alar scare of 1989
25
20
Total Domestic
15
10
Exports
5
Imports
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
20
Banana supply (nearly 100% imported) peaked in 1999 and has declined ~1/6 since them
Pound/Person/Year
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total
Imports
-5
21
Pound/Person/Year
Tangerine supply and consumption have been growing rapidly since 1990
Total
2.0
Domestic
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970
Imports Exports
1980 1990 2000 2010
22
Total
-0.5
23
Total
Domestic
Imports
24
Total
5 4
Domestic
3 2 1 0 1970
Exports Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010
25
Blueberries have risen 5 fold from a tiny fresh segment in the 1980s to nearly 1 lb/person by 2009 The growth in supply is from both domestic and import sources
1.0 0.9 0.8 Pound/Person/Year 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1970 1980 1990
Total
Pound/Person/Year
Fresh raspberries have recently emerged as a minor but growing fruit option for US consumers Growth of both domestic and import sources have broadened the window of availability
0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1970
Total
Domestic
Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010
27
4 Pound/Person/Year
Total
3
Imports
2
Domestic Exports
0 1970 -1
1980
1990
2000
2010
28
Pound/Person/Year
Total
Imports
0.4 0.2
Exports
0.0 1970 1980 1990
Domestic
2000 2010
29
Exports
30
Pound/Person/Year
Import/Export data was not available from the same USDA-ERS source, but fresh cherry supply has been increasing dramatically since 1995
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970
Total
1980
1990
2000
2010
Pound/Person/Year
Mango supply, essentially all imported, has increased dramatically since 1980
2.5
2.0
Total
1.5
1.0
0.5
Imports Exports
0.0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
32
Pounds /Person/Year
Total
Domestic
6 4 2 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Imports Exports
33
10 Pounds /Person/Year
Total
Domestic
6
Exports
0
1960 1970 1980 1990
Imports
2000 2010
34
Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: US Head Lettuce Consumption Trend Head Lettuce
30
After reaching a peak in 1990, the head lettuce supply has declined significantly This has been mainly a replacement phenomenon with other lettuce types
25 Pounds /Person/Year
Total Domestic
20
15
10
0
Lettuce
30 25 Pounds/P erson/Year 20 15 10 5 Head lettuce Romaine & leaf
Exports Imports
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1960
35
Pounds /Person/Year
Fresh potato supply is now less than of what it was in 1960 but still almost exclusively a domestic crops Both fresh and processed potato supplies have been declining
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Imports
Potatoes
100 90 Pounds/Person/Year 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fresh Processing
36
Pounds /Person/Year
Artichoke supply has been increasing steadily since 1980 (nearly 4X) The domestic supply has been declining very slowly, but imports have risen rapidly since 1980
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
1960 1970
Total
Imports
Domestic
Exports
1980 1990 2000 2010
37
Total
Imports
Domestic
0.4 0.2
Exports
0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
38
Broccoli supply grew rapidly from 1970 and peaked in 2000. It dropped, and then has recovered, particularly in recent years A small but growing import segment has also appeared
6 Pounds /Person/Year 5 4 3 2 1
Total
Domestic
Exports
0 1960
Imports
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
39
Pounds /Person/Year
Eggplants are a small part of the US fresh produce supply, but have been growing rapidly on a percentage basis, particularly since 1990 Growth is occurring in both the domestic and imported supply
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total
40
Total
41
Pepper supply has been rising rapidly since ~1980 though most of the growth since 1990 has been from imports This include both chile and bell types
10
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Total
Domestic
Imports Exports
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Peppers
10 9 Pounds/Person/Year 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Chile peppers, all Bell peppers, all
1960
42
Total
Pounds /Person/Year 10
Domestic
8 6 4 2 0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Exports
Imports
43
Spinach rose from a small crop in 1990 to more than 2 lbs/person/year The E. coli event in 2005 seems to have only temporarily set back the crop Drivers are flavor, This crop is essentially all produced domestically
2.5
1.5
Total
1.0
Domestic
0.5
Imports
0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990
Exports
2000
2010
44
Though the total supply appears to be leveling, fresh tomatoes still increased by a significant number of pounds since 1997-9 Recent gains have been mainly as imports Canned tomato products have held steady in the US supply
90 80 Pounds/Person/Year 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 Fresh
20 Pounds /Person/Year
Total
15
10
Domestic
Imports Exports
1980 1990 2000 2010
0
1970
Tomatoes
Canning
45
2010
Pounds /Person/Year
After decades of slow decline, sweet potato supply/consumption has been rising since the late 1990s
7 6 5 4
Total Domestic
3 2 1 0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Imports
Exports
46