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UBS-2012-Outlook

UBS-2012-Outlook

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03/31/2012

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Investment outlook 
 Debt will also dominate 2012
Investing
 Preserving wealth or looking to increase it 
Equities
 Be patient, but alert 
UBS global outloo
Wealth Management Research
December 2011
2012
 Climate change
 H e a r  o u r l a t e s t  a n al y s i s 
e ve r y week  i n  E n gl i sh , Ge r ma n ,  F re nch a nd  I tal ia n o n
 w w w . ub s . c o m / r e s e a r ch - p o d c a s t
 
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Content
Key investment views
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Investment outlook
Debt will also dominate 2012
������������������������������������������������5
Investing
Global risks: High and interconnected 
����������������������������������10
Preserving wealth or looking to increase it 
���������������������������12
Geopolitics
Social unrest unnerves financial markets
�����������������������������13
Asset classes
Equities: Be patient, but alert 
�����������������������������������������������15
Currencies: Growth slump promises turbulence
�������������������18
Fixed income: Government bonds likely to continuedrifting apart 
�����������������������������������������������������������������������21
Non-traditional asset classes:
Hedge funds ������������������������������������������������������������������������23Listed real estate ������������������������������������������������������������������23Commodities �����������������������������������������������������������������������24Private equity �����������������������������������������������������������������������24Financial market performance ����������������������������������������������25Selected UBS WMR publications�������������������������������������������26
5
 Investment outlook
15
 Equities
18
Currencies
UBS global outlook 2012
This report has been prepared byUBS AG� Please see importantdisclaimer at the end of thedocument� Past performance is notan indication of future returns� Themarket prices provided are closingprices on the respective principalstock exchange�
Chief Economist and Global HeadWealth Management Research
Dr� Andreas Höfert
Publisher
UBS AG, Wealth ManagementResearch, P�O� Box, CH-8098 Zurich
Editor in Chief
Pierre Weill
Editors
Andrew DeBoo, Anna Marie Focà
Project Management
Reda Mouhid
Editorial deadline
1 December 2011
Layout
WMR Desktop
Cover picture
staphy (Fotolia�com)
Printer
Druckerei Flawil AG, Flawil,Switzerland
Languages
Published in English, German, Italian,French, Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese
(traditional and simplied) and
Russian�
Contact:
ubs-research@ubs�comUBS homepage: www�ubs�com
Order or subscribe
As a UBS client you can subscribe tothe printed version of
UBS global outlook 
via your client advisor or viathe Printed & Branded Productsmailbox:sh-iz-ubs-publikationen@ubs�com�Electronic subscription is alsoavailable via the WMR portal on theUBS e-banking platform�SAP-Nr� 82251E-1101
 
UBS global outlook
2012
3
 Dear readers,
In the latest round of doomsday scenarios, some are claim-ing that the ancient Mayas predicted the end of a cosmiccycle on 21 December 2012 – or even the end of theworld� We are not quite that pessimistic, but we still haveto acknowledge that we are witnessing a climate change,as 2012 will likely be another year of sub-trend growth as
the aermath of the nancial crisis continues to unfold.
To describe 2011 as eventful would be an understatement�The Arab Spring and the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe inJapan dominated the headlines, but markets stayed largelyfocused on the developed economies’ debt woes� Just thinkof the protracted debt ceiling debate in the US last summer,
which led to the rst credit downgrade in American history.
Or the series of “last chance” European summits in the fall,which haven’t managed to resolve the euro crisis�The political dithering and lack of leadership currentlyon display by developed world decision-makers can be
explained fairly easily: Governments nd the potential
solutions to the public debt problematic either unappeal-ing, unfeasible, or a combination of the two� Moreover,with presidential elections looming next year in France andthe US, we don’t think the world can expect PresidentsObama and Sarkozy to make any bold moves if thesewould jeopardize their chances for reelection�Many investors want to know what the ultimate asset isin an environment still characterized by heightened uncer-tainty� We would respond by saying that such an asset
doesn’t exist, and the old diversication rule remains valideven aer the nancial crisis. But diversication doesn’t
mean buying anything and everything: A conservative tiltto the portfolio in 2012 may not secure investors hugereturns, but it should at least help them to avoid manymajor pitfalls� And in 2012, avoiding the myriad pitfalls ofthis volatile environment would already count as a majorinvestment success�
Andreas Höfert Alexander S� Friedman
Andreas Höfert
Chief EconomistGlobal Head Wealth Management Research
Alexander S. Friedman
Chief Investment Ofcer
 

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