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2012 Outlook the Post-Stimulus Economy

2012 Outlook the Post-Stimulus Economy

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Published by Forbes
The 2012 world investment outlook from Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan Asset Management's Global Head of Investment Strategy.
The 2012 world investment outlook from Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan Asset Management's Global Head of Investment Strategy.

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Published by: Forbes on Jan 04, 2012
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A economia pós-estímulo
O ano de 2012 marca uma transição de abandono do estímulo monetário e scal extremo em nível global, conforme ilustradopelo pôr do sol. Em sua maior parte, a recuperação do setor privado terá de acontecer por conta própria a partir daqui. Asnotícias são melhores nos EUA do que na Europa ou no Japão. A Ásia está em expansão, mas o aperto nas taxas de juros estátrazendo o crescimento de volta a patamares mais realistas. A altura de cada árvore mostra a recuperação em cada variávelrelativa a sua queda durante a recessão. Mais informações no interior da publicação.
A economia pós-estímulo
O ano de 2012 marca uma transição de abandono do estímulo monetário e scal extremo em nível global, conforme ilustradopelo pôr do sol. Em sua maior parte, a recuperação do setor privado terá de acontecer por conta própria a partir daqui. Asnotícias são melhores nos EUA do que na Europa ou no Japão. A Ásia está em expansão, mas o aperto nas taxas de juros estátrazendo o crescimento de volta a patamares mais realistas. A altura de cada árvore mostra a recuperação em cada variávelrelativa a sua queda durante a recessão. Mais informações no interior da publicação.
 
 
The post-stimulus economy
2012 marks a transition away from extreme global monetary and scal stimulus, as illustrated by the setting sun. Theprivate sector recovery will mostly have to make it on its own from here. The news is better in the US than in Europeor Japan. Asia is expanding, but tighter policy rates are bringing growth back to earth. The height of each tree showsthe recovery in each variable relative to its decline during the recession. See inside cover for more details.
EYE ON THE MARKET
OUTLOOK 2012
J.P. Morgan Private Bank
 
In the wake o the recession, a lot o stimulus was added to the global economy. The level o global policyrates and fscal defcits defnes the trajectory o the sun. Fiscal tightening is scheduled almost everywhereor 2012. On monetary policy, while ination appears to be cresting, this more oten prevents planned policyrate increases, rather than ushering in another period o substantial easing. More monetary policy responsesin Europe are likely, but they are mostly intended to prevent a collapse o the Monetary Union as banks andgovernments de-lever.The height o each tree shows how much each variable has recovered, relative to its prior decline. For example,S&P profts, high-end retail and German GDP have now recovered almost all o what they lost during therecession, while US home prices and European peripheral employment are still close to their post-recessionlows. The three comparison points or computing the recovery are the pre-cycle peak; the lowest level o the lastour years; and the current value. One exception: US household balance sheet repair is computed as the declinein real per household debt rom the peak.Commodity countries like Canada, Brazil and Australia, whose GDP in aggregate is much larger than SouthernEurope, recovered rapidly. The speedboat is Asia, whose production and output suered only minor declines,and which have long since eclipsed pre-recession levels. However, credit and policy rate tightening have causeda slowdown to the Asian speedboat and the rest o the emerging world, compared to the booming growth rateso 2010. The deated volleyball is the European Economic and Monetary Union. See sources and defnitions atthe end o this publication.
 
 
MARY CALLAHAN ERDOES
Chie Executive OfcerJ.P. Morgan Asset Management
As we turn the page and head into a new year, it is important or us to reecton the current landscape, and to give you our best thinking on where the worldis heading.The past twelve months were flled with unprecedented events. We witnessedArab Spring uprisings and subsequent governmental changes, a devastatingearthquake and tsunami in Japan, the frst ever downgrade o U.S. debt, acontinuously evolving European sovereign debt crisis, and the ormal conclusiono a near decade-long conict in Iraq.Amidst such transormational events around the world, we recognize that our jobo siting through all o this and fnding appropriate investment opportunitiesor the uture is even more important. Our Chie Investment Ocer MichaelCembalest, in partnership with our investment teams across the world, hascreated an insightul ramework or understanding and assessing the globalopportunities and risks that we can expect in the coming year.I hope you enjoy the clever cover picture Michael commissioned to captureon one page the progress that has been made (or lack thereo) since the globalrecession o 2008–2009.We wish you a healthy and happy new year. And most importantly, we thank youor your continued trust and confdence in J.P. Morgan.Most sincerely,

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